Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

FSOC no longer opposes cryptocurrencies

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According to the latest report, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is no longer opposed to cryptocurrencies and other digital assets, which were previously considered a threat to national security.

The cryptocurrency sector has been removed from the annual list of financial risks for the US system compiled by FSOC. Established in the aftermath of the 2008 mortgage crisis that devastated the global economy, FSOC was created as an early warning tool, allowing regulatory leaders to collectively identify emerging hazards.

For years, the digital asset industry appeared on this list. It was previously believed that products such as stablecoins and cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could pose risks if the sector became overly interconnected with the broader financial system. However, in the report for 2025, released yesterday, this concern is no longer addressed.

The exclusion of cryptocurrencies from the list of potential threats reflects a shift in the approach to regulating digital assets. This likely indicates a more mature understanding of the cryptocurrency market and its potential integration into the traditional financial system. However, this does not signify a complete abandonment of oversight.

Instead of viewing cryptocurrencies as a systemic threat, regulators appear to be focusing on targeted oversight of individual market participants and specific operations. This approach allows for a more flexible response to emerging risks without stifling innovation in the sector. The introduction of clear rules and standards for the cryptocurrency market, exchanges, custodial services, and other market participants this year has evidently played a positive role in the decision to exclude cryptocurrency assets from the risk assessments.

This news is favorable for the cryptocurrency market, which has been experiencing challenging times lately.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $93,000 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000. From there, it would not be far to $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $99,300, and surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I anticipate buyers at the $90,700 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,100, with the further target being the area of $85,800.

For Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $3,349 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,664, and surpassing this level would bolster bullish market sentiments and renew buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the further target being the $3,023 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Yen Has Every Chance to Grow Until the End of the Current Year (There is a Probability of Decline in USD/CAD and USD/JPY)

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While the Fed continues lowering interest rates, the Bank of Japan will likely resume cutting its own rates — something the regulator's chairman, Kazuo Ueda, hinted at quite explicitly.

Previously, the Japanese central bank had taken measures aimed at gradually tightening monetary policy. But with the arrival of the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, the tightening process essentially halted, as she expressed the opposite view — that monetary policy should be eased. This led to a weakening of the yen against the dollar, despite the fact that the Fed resumed rate cuts this year.

Now, given the current situation in both the global and national (Japanese) economies and the prospects of further interest-rate reductions, the Japanese currency has every chance to strengthen significantly against the dollar in the Forex market. In this context, next week's rate decision by the Bank of Japan will be crucial. If the regulator raises interest rates, this will be a strong bullish factor for the yen.

Comparing the actions of other central banks whose currencies are included in the U.S. Dollar Index, we see that they have taken a wait-and-see stance, preferring to follow in the wake of the Fed's monetary policy. In this situation, the Japanese regulator is demonstrating its own independent view and policy direction.

So, what can we expect in the markets today and at the beginning of next week?

I believe demand for company stocks will remain supported against the backdrop of the Fed's monetary easing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar will continue to decline, as the Federal Reserve signaled at Wednesday's meeting that further rate cuts are possible, and central banks whose currencies are part of the dollar basket — with the exception of the yen — have paused, keeping their interest rates unchanged.

The most promising scenario, in my opinion, is a decline in the USD/JPY pair due to the expected wide divergence in interest-rate levels. Riding this wave, the pair may fall to 153.00 yen per dollar by the end of the year.

Forecast of the Day:

USD/JPY

The pair is trading above 155.50. A break below this level could technically lead to a continuation of the corrective decline that began in November. The expected divergence between the interest rates of the Fed and the Bank of Japan will support the yen if the BoJ decides to raise rates next week. Under this scenario, the pair could first fall to 154.60, and then to 153.00 by the end of the month. A level of 155.39 may serve as an entry point for short positions.

USD/CAD

The pair is trading below 1.3800, which may allow it to continue declining toward 1.3720 amid overall weakness of the dollar in the Forex market. A level of 1.3753 may serve as a trigger for selling.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 12, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. Thus, the rise of the European currency may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% — 1.1795. A consolidation of the price below 1.1718 will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Therefore, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It can hardly be called strong, but in recent days the bulls have revived and resumed active pressure. The Fed's monetary-policy easing supports further growth of the euro, and the ECB will not create any problems for the euro in the near term.

On Thursday, the news background in both the U.S. and the EU was essentially absent, but traders were not disappointed and continued to trade the outcome of the previous day's FOMC meeting. Recall that the interest rate was cut by 0.25%, which surprised no one. However, traders seemed to have been waiting for the Fed meeting simply as a trigger to resume active market behavior. The FOMC made no "dovish" statements or promises regarding 2026, which makes the dollar's decline look almost excessive. But I want to remind you that throughout 2025, the information background has been one major problem for the U.S. currency. I believe the dollar may show occasional local growth, but overall, the background remains too weak for bears to attack continuously. Next week the U.S. will release November data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation — and this may be another blow for the dollar. Thus, the Fed meeting simply gave traders a push. In my view, the most interesting developments are still ahead.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 0.0% — 1.1829. A consolidation of the price below 1.1649–1.1680 will again work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but the data is still outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 250,000, while short positions total 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several major trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy and a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure, especially given Jerome Powell's scheduled resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

European Union — Germany Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for December 12 contains one item, which is of no interest. The information background will not influence market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions may be opened today on a rebound from 1.1795 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1718, or on a close below 1.1718 with a target at 1.1656. Long positions could be opened toward 1.1718 on a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone, and today they may be kept open with targets at 1.1795–1.1802.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392 to 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 to 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 12, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support level of 1.3352–1.3362, turned in favor of the pound, and rose to the 1.3425 level. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a slight decline. Today, another rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level will again allow us to expect growth toward 1.3425, while a close below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.

The wave structure shifted into a "bullish" configuration two weeks ago. The most recent completed upward wave broke the previous high, and the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" for now. The informational backdrop for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but bears have fully priced it in, and the U.S. background also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to maintain pressure, but their position is stronger than that of the bears. A confirmation of the end of the "bullish" trend will only come below the 1.3294 level.

There was no news background on Thursday, but bull traders continued pressing upward for a while out of inertia. Recall that the FOMC meeting ended with a third consecutive monetary-policy easing, and the market is not yet very interested in the outlook for 2026. Jerome Powell stated that further FOMC decisions will depend on economic data. And now traders are understandably nervous about next week, when U.S. unemployment, labor-market, and inflation reports will be released. If the labor-market numbers for November turn out to be weak again, the Fed will have to consider another rate cut in early 2026. And it does not matter what expectations the FOMC "dot plot" showed. If inflation also begins to decline, then a fourth consecutive round of easing will become very likely. The latest ADP report showed no improvements in the U.S. labor market.

Today, the UK released its GDP report for October, and once again the pound has become a source of support for the dollar. GDP contracted by 0.1%, while the market expected a 0.1% increase. The industrial production report was slightly better than expected, but GDP is more important.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair broke above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 100.0% correction level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3435 will open the way for further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish during the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 82,000 versus 102,000. However, these figures are from mid-October. The market picture may already be completely different today.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies caused a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to continue easing monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and support job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England can lower rates once more, the FOMC may end up easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom — Monthly GDP change for October (07:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom — Industrial Production change (07:00 UTC).

On December 12, the economic calendar contains two entries, both of which have already been released. The information background will not influence market sentiment for the rest of Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions could be opened on a rebound from 1.3425 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3362. Long positions may be considered today on a rebound from 1.3362 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470 to 1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

SEC supports transition of market to on-chain

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Bitcoin continues to demonstrate stability, bouncing back excellently from the $90,000 level and returning to the vicinity of $93,000. Ethereum also remains above $3,000, maintaining fairly positive upward prospects.

Meanwhile, a positive development for the market has come from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who announced that US financial markets are actively transitioning to on-chain systems. Against this backdrop, the regulator is prioritizing innovation and the implementation of new technologies to ensure an on-chain future.

This statement is undoubtedly seen as a sign of support from the regulator, which could attract more institutional investors who were previously wary of regulatory uncertainty. Gensler emphasized the importance of creating clear and transparent rules for digital assets, which would reduce risks for investors and promote further development of the crypto industry in the US.

Investors view Gensler's statements as a positive signal and hope that the SEC will take a more lenient stance towards innovative projects in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space. This could lead to the emergence of new instruments and products that will expand investment opportunities and attract new capital to the market.

Overall, the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is quite favorable. Bitcoin and Ethereum show resilience, while the statements from the SEC Chairman bolster investor confidence. However, for the market to continue developing, it is essential to keep working on creating clear and transparent regulatory frameworks.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $93,000 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000. From there, it would be a short distance to $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $99,300, and exceeding this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the $90,700 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,100, with the further target being the $85,800 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,349 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,664, and surpassing this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the further target being the $3,023 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on December 12, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Friday, from the 1.3383 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving upward with a target of 1.3451 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective downward move is possible with a target of 1.3437 — the upper fractal (daily candle from December 11, 2025).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the 1.3383 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3367 — the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3400 — the historical resistance level (light blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 12, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Friday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1719 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward move may occur with a target of 1.1762 — the upper fractal (red dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario:Today, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1719 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward move is possible with a target of 1.1746 — the 61.8% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

U.S. Trade Deficit Continues to Decline Rapidly

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According to the data, in September of this year, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since mid-2020. This happened thanks to a sharp increase in exports.

The Commerce Department report states that the trade deficit in goods and services shrank by nearly 11% compared to the previous month, reaching $52.8 billion. Economists' average estimate had projected a deficit of $63.1 billion.

U.S. exports rose by 3%, reaching the second-highest level on record, driven by shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports increased more modestly—by 0.6%.

Taking into account the data for all three months, net exports likely made a fairly strong contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. As for imports, their increase was partly due to a rise in pharmaceutical imports, which was presumably triggered by President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on branded drug imports. However, aside from the threats, no action was actually taken. Imports of capital equipment and automobiles declined, as did imports of most consumer goods, including mobile phones, household appliances, toys, and furniture.

Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit fell to $79 billion in September—the lowest level in nearly five years. Export volumes of consumer goods, after accounting for price changes, reached the highest level on record.

According to the Commerce Department, the September report showed that the U.S. exported a record amount of goods to Switzerland, resulting in the largest trade surplus with that European country in history. China's share of U.S. imports this year has dropped to its lowest level since the country joined the World Trade Organization. The seasonally adjusted goods-trade deficit with China also fell to the second-lowest level on record. The deficit with Mexico rose to a record high. The deficit with Canada also increased.

It is worth noting that the foreign-exchange market showed no reaction at all to such strong results.

Regarding the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about reclaiming the 1.1750 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1855 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1715. If no one steps in there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only then will a move toward 1.3430 become feasible, though breaking above that level will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3470 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3350. If they manage to do so, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 12: S&P 500 and NASDAQ mixed

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Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.34%.

Global stock indices reached new records as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week and its optimistic assessment of the US economy boosted investor sentiment. The MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest indicators of the stock market, increased by 0.2% after closing at a historic high in the previous session.

The S&P 500 also hit a new weekly peak, while the volatility index (VIX) declined to a three-month low. The MSCI Asian stock index surged by 1.3%, nearing its highest level in a month. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable after a slight rise on Thursday when data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 increased more than expected.

The positive sentiment is expected to persist through the end of the year. With interest rates declining, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair, and rising profits, the bull market appears set to continue into 2026. As more companies adopt AI, participation in this sector is expected to broaden, pulling along industries beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Although the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% on Thursday, there remained a degree of caution regarding tech companies. Shares of Broadcom Inc., a chipmaker competing with Nvidia Corp. for AI computing revenues, fell in late trading after its sales forecast failed to meet inflated investor expectations. The Japanese Topix index led gains in Asia, reaching an all-time high, with the financial sector experiencing the highest demand amid assumptions that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week is virtually inevitable. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks fell after the country's leadership signaled that it would maintain economic support but refrain from ramping up stimulus measures next year.

It is worth mentioning that on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, announcing the third consecutive rate cut, expressed optimism regarding the strengthening US economy as the inflationary impact of tariffs eases. While officials maintained a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, traders are still leaning toward two.

In commodity markets, copper reached a new record level on Friday. Most other industrial metals also rose following the Fed's decision. Gold remained stable after three days of gains, and silver traded near its all-time high. Oil prices increased from their lowest closing level in nearly two months.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level at $6,930. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,946 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,896. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,874 and open the way to $6,854.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market buys low to sell high

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In finance, there's a saying that a sacred place is never empty. The rotation of securities in investment portfolios is leading to mixed dynamics in stock indices. The Nasdaq Composite is declining, the S&P 500 is inching towards record highs, while the Dow Jones is exhibiting its best performance relative to the S&P 500 since January. Interest in yesterday's leaders is rapidly dwindling, and laggards are transforming from ugly ducklings into beautiful swans.

While women are fighting, it's best not to get involved in the brawl. This is also true for technology companies. In November, Google announced its powerful AI model, Gemini 3, which outperformed the latest version of ChatGPT in benchmark tests. As a result, all those associated with OpenAI suffered. In particular, shares of Oracle, which secured an impressive $300 billion deal with a software manufacturer three months ago, fell significantly. Since then, Oracle's stock has plummeted by over 30%. The company's announcement of higher-than-expected expenses dealt a further blow.

Oracle's Expense Dynamics

The Fed's hawkish rate cut with an extended pause in the monetary easing cycle deprives the S&P 500 of a safety net. The technology sector, with its inflated fundamental valuations, appears to be the most vulnerable. It's no surprise that investors are shedding shares of the Magnificent Seven and turning their attention to banks and even the energy sector.

On the surface, the drop in oil prices makes companies in the oil and gas industry less attractive. Indeed, since the end of 2022, the energy index has risen by only 4% compared to the 79% rally of the S&P 500. It is expected that Brent and WTI will remain under pressure due to record market surpluses in the first half of 2026. However, investors have compelling reasons to buy.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Energy Index

The fundamental valuations of issuers in the sector, including the notorious price-to-forward-earnings ratio (P/E), are the lowest among all companies in the broad stock index. Even with oil prices in the range of $50 to $60 per barrel, Exxon Mobil has shown it can generate substantial cash flow. Over the past two months, the energy sector has ranked second among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 in terms of growth rates.

Thus, the rotation of securities in investment portfolios is gaining momentum in the US stock market. With expectations for a traditional Christmas rally and confidence in an accelerated cycle of monetary easing by the Fed under a new chair, the S&P 500 is being pushed towards record highs.

Technically, on the daily chart of the broad stock index, bulls are trying to restore the upward trend. Long positions established on rebounds from fair value at 6,845 and above should be maintained and occasionally increased towards the previously stated targets of 7,000 and 7,100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Economists are starting to anticipate an interest rate hike from the ECB

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Meanwhile, the European currency is rising, and more economists are predicting that the next move in the eurozone will indeed be an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank. This aligns with the views of influential board member Isabel Schnabel.

According to a survey, over 60% of respondents believe that officials are more likely to raise borrowing costs rather than lower them. However, they do not expect this to happen anytime soon; it is projected that the deposit rate will remain at 2% for the next two years.

On the one hand, rising rates may help contain inflation—which the ECB currently seems to have under control—but on the other hand, they pose risks of slowing economic growth and even triggering recessions in highly indebted countries. Clearly, the ECB will be forced to continue balancing between these two goals, trying not to harm the already fragile eurozone economy.

The impact of rate hikes on the euro exchange rate also remains uncertain. On one hand, higher rates make the euro more attractive to investors, which could lead to its strengthening. On the other hand, concerns about economic growth may reduce interest in the European currency.

I should note that in a recent interview, Schnabel cited inflation persistence as one of the reasons she is confident that interest rates will be raised in the near future. One indicator now points to the first hike in the second half of 2027.

However, most members of the Governing Council believe that interest rates are currently in a good place. At next week's meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde's task will be to convince investors that the economic danger is diminishing—without encouraging expectations of an imminent rate hike.

Survey participants believe that the new quarterly ECB forecasts, to be published next week, will present a more optimistic picture of growth, something Lagarde hinted at recently. As for inflation, concerns persist regarding 2027, when delays in implementing the EU's new carbon-pricing system may have a negative impact. However, most economists expect that the September forecast—predicting a 1.9% rise in prices this year—will remain unchanged.

Regarding the current EUR/USD technical outlook, buyers now need to think about reclaiming the 1.1750 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1855 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1715. If no one steps in there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only then will a move toward 1.3430 become feasible, though breaking above that level will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3470 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3350. If they manage to do so, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on December 12

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Bitcoin faced some challenges around $89,000 yesterday but recovered well to the $93,000 level, around which trading is currently taking place. Ethereum also showed growth in the afternoon, firmly establishing itself above the $3,200 mark.

At the same time, according to CoinGecko data, publicly traded companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now hold over 5% of its total supply on their balance sheets. Notably, the company Strategy holds a full 3%. This trend, gaining momentum over the past few years, indicates increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and a means of storing value.

The significant increase in the share of Bitcoin controlled by public companies underscores a shift in the perception of cryptocurrencies from a speculative instrument to a strategic component of corporate portfolios. However, it should be noted that in the third quarter, Bitcoin purchases by many companies sharply slowed, indicating a phase of an overheated market. Nonetheless, Strategy's influence in this sector remains substantial. This company has continued to buy Bitcoin even during its sharp decline observed in November this year, reflecting its firm strategy.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of a bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $93,000, with a target for growth to the level of $94,500. Around $94,500, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is possible at the lower boundary of $91,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $93,000 and $94,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $91,900, with a target decline to $90,500. Around $90,500, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome oscillator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is possible at the upper boundary of $93,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $91,900 and $90,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,278, with a target for growth to the level of $3,320. Around $3,320, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum is possible from the lower boundary of $3,241 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels of $3,278 and $3,320.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,241, with a target decline to $3,178. Around $3,178, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome oscillator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum is possible from the upper boundary at $3,278 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,241 and $3,178.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price level at 155.74 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed out on all the downward movement.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar yesterday after data showed that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded economists' forecasts. The released data caused the dollar to weaken, as investors interpreted this as yet another signal of cooling in the US labor market. This, in turn, may affect the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. Weaker employment data may prompt the Fed to maintain its dovish stance on rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar's appeal. The yen's strengthening is also connected to expectations of possible changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. It is anticipated that the central bank will raise interest rates next week, making the yen even more attractive for purchases.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 155.83 (green line on the chart), with a target of 156.10 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.10, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 155.64 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 155.83 and 156.10 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 155.64 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.40 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 155.83 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards opposite levels of 155.64 and 155.40 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price level at 1.3385 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed out on all the upward movement.

News that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States was higher than expected led to a decline in the dollar and a rise in the British pound in the afternoon. The US labor market continues to show signs of cooling, which increases investors' expectations regarding further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This factor puts pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors seeking higher returns in other currencies.

Today, the United Kingdom will release its GDP data, industrial output, and goods trade balance. GDP, as a cornerstone of the economy, will allow for an assessment of the pace of economic expansion or, conversely, contraction, which is necessary for determining the country's future development path. Given that the last positive GDP growth data was published only in July of this year, any negative figures today could exert much more pressure on the pound than may be apparent. The dynamics of industrial production represent another important indicator, reflecting the state of the industrial sector, which plays a significant role in GDP formation and employment. An increase in industrial production indicates rising consumer demand for goods and services, forming the basis for further economic growth. A decline, on the other hand, suggests a slowdown in economic activity and can serve as a harbinger of more serious economic problems.

The trade balance of goods, in turn, shows the difference between exports and imports. Together, these three economic indicators will provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the British economy and allow market participants and investors to make more informed decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3400 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3431 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3431 level, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). Expecting strong pound growth can only be done after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price level at 1.3386 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 1.3400 and 1.3431 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks the 1.3386 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3366 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Pound sellers will show their strength if weak data emerge. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3400 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards opposite levels of 1.3386 and 1.3366 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price level at 1.1715 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Contrary to analysts' expectations, the number of new jobless claims in the United States exceeded forecasted figures. This situation led to a decline in the value of the US currency and a strengthening of the euro's position.

Today, market participants will focus on the consumer price index reports from leading Eurozone countries. Special attention will be paid to the German inflation data release. Unexpected deviations from forecasts in German data may provoke significant fluctuations in currency markets, affecting both the euro and related currencies. Data from France and Italy will also be released. The difference between expectations and actual data can lead to a slight spike in volatility. Rising inflation across all countries will also support the euro's growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1770. At point 1.1770, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro can only happen after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1730 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1770 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1730 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1709, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1745 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1709 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 12

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The dollar continues to face issues. As statistics indicate, the number of initial jobless claims in the US has sharply increased, exceeding economists' forecasts, leading to another decline of the dollar against several risk assets. Although this news was not particularly new to the Federal Reserve or market participants, who are well aware of the challenges currently facing the US labor market, it has negatively impacted those betting on a short-term rise in the dollar. Economists link the increase in unemployment benefit claims to a slowdown in the American economy's growth rate, which, in turn, puts pressure on the Fed. Conversely, Europe is experiencing relative stability. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the European economy is showing signs of resilience, making the euro a more attractive asset for investors.

Today, traders will focus on the consumer price index data from Germany, France, and Italy. These indicators will serve as a sort of compass, indicating the direction of short-term currency flows and determining the movement vector for the European currency. The publication of German inflation data is particularly anticipated. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany sets the tone for the entire regional economy. Any surprises in German reports could trigger sharp fluctuations in currency markets, affecting not only the euro but also other related currencies. France and Italy, the second and third-largest economies in the Eurozone, respectively, will also contribute to the overall picture. Overall, the upcoming consumer price index data will be a key driver for the euro in the short term.

Regarding the pound, today's data will include changes in UK GDP, industrial production, and the trade balance of goods. This triplet of economic indicators promises to be a true barometer of the British economy, capable of influencing trader sentiment and the British pound's exchange rate. GDP data, as a cornerstone of the economy, will provide insights into growth rates or, conversely, slowdowns, which is critical for forecasting the country's further prospects. Changes in industrial production are another key indicator reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector, which plays a vital role in GDP and job creation. A decline in this indicator may adversely affect the positions of British pound buyers.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be most effective.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 1.1748, which may lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1777 and 1.1815;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 1.1725, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1710 and 1.1680;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 1.3399, which may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3434 and 1.3468;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 1.3375, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3355 and 1.3320;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 155.85, which may lead to a rise in the dollar towards 156.15 and 156.55;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 155.50, which may lead to a sell-off of the dollar towards 155.30 and 155.00;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1755 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1719 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3410 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3375 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6680 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6656 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3785 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3754 on a return to this level;

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With all technical indicators condition which shows weakness, the Litecoin cryptocurrency has the potential to move toward

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[Litecoin]

The EMA(50) which positioned below the EMA(200) forming a Death Cross, along with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14), confirms that today Litecoin has the potential to continue its bearish bias.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 88.05

2. Resistance. 1 : 85.64

3. Pivot : 82.97

4. Support. 1 : 80.56

5. Support. 2 : 77.89

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of Litecoin breaks down below 80.56, it has the potential to test the 77.89 level.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 77.89 is broken, there is potential for it to move to 75.48.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is contained if the price of Litecoin rises above 88.05.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 82.39

EMA(200): 82.96

RSI(14) : 53.34 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, there are no economic data releases from the U.S. session.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Uniswap cryptocurrency today has the potential to continue its bearish bias.

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[Uniswap]

Although the RSI(14) is in the Neutral-Bullish level, but with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence and the two EMAs still forming a Death Cross, it indicates a significant likelihood for Uniswap to weaken.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 5.938

2. Resistance. 1 : 5.754

3. Pivot : 5.521

4. Support. 1 : 5.337

5. Support. 2 : 5.104

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 5.337, Uniswap may head toward 5.104.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.104 is broken, there is potential for this cryptocurrency to test the level at 4.920.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of Uniswap strengthens and breaks above 5.938.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 5.475

EMA(200): 5.545

RSI(14) : 52.67 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, there are no economic data releases from the U.S. session.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 12? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some deserve traders' attention. In particular, reports on GDP and industrial production will be released in the UK. The GDP will be published in monthly figures, which hold much weaker significance than quarterly or yearly data. Industrial production is an important report, and a strong value may provoke additional strengthening of the British currency. In Germany, inflation data will be released, but this will be the second estimate for November. Therefore, this report attracts little interest.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. All of them involve speeches by members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee. Recall that on Wednesday evening, the results of the last Fed meeting of the year were revealed. The key interest rate was lowered by 0.25% for the third consecutive time, and the FOMC Committee's expectations did not become more "dovish" (according to the "dot-plot" chart). Jerome Powell announced a pause in easing monetary policy until inflation demonstrates a sustainable trajectory towards the target level of 2%. Thus, the Fed clearly outlined its stance for 2026. It is unlikely that Fed officials will be able to add to the existing fundamental picture of the dollar.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again lean towards growth, as in both cases, an upward trend is still developing. The European currency has the area of 1.1745-1.1754 for position openings nearby, while the British pound has the area of 1.3413-1.3421. Volatility on Friday may be low, as the market has already reacted to the Fed meeting, and the macroeconomic backdrop will not be particularly strong today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 12? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart for GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday amid the Federal Reserve meeting. In previous articles, we mentioned that the market could react to such an important event for up to 24 hours. This time, there were no drastic fluctuations, but overall, the market reaction to the US central bank's meeting was not extraordinarily tumultuous. Rather, the GBP/USD pair resumed its upward trend, which has been forming for three weeks. As we warned, the British pound is expected to rise after a long five-month correction on the daily timeframe. Therefore, regardless of the Fed meeting, we only anticipate growth. There will be no significant events this week, except for a couple of reports from the UK this morning. However, next week, important macroeconomic data will be published in the US, and the Bank of England will hold a meeting where the key interest rate may also be lowered.

5M Chart for GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, the first trading signals were formed during the US trading session on Thursday. The pair first moved above the area of 1.3413-1.3421 from below and then from above to below. The first signal proved false, but long positions should have been opened earlier around 1.3319-1.3331 on Wednesday evening. If they were opened at all... However, the sell signal could have been exploited.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to establish a local upward trend. As we mentioned, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we also anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark within the next couple of months.

On Friday, beginner traders may remain in short positions based on yesterday's sell signal. The target is 1.3331. The British pound is unlikely to fall that low, as the market trend remains upward. A price consolidation above the 1.3413-1.3421 area will allow opening long positions with a target at 1.3466.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be based on the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Friday, two interesting reports are scheduled in the UK: the monthly GDP and industrial production. We believe the second report may provoke a minor market reaction, but overall, both reports have extremely low odds of significantly influencing the GBP/USD pair.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 12? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart for EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday following the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday evening. Recall that the results of the last Fed meeting of the year cannot be considered unequivocally "dovish," as the central bank lowered the rate but essentially announced a prolonged pause for the following year. Only one easing of monetary policy is planned for the entire next year, which is positive news for the dollar. However, this time the market traded as if the Fed announced plans for 4-5 more cuts. It's also worth noting that the last two Fed meetings ended with a rate cut, after which the dollar rose. Therefore, the current decline of the American currency is more related to the flat trend on the daily timeframe. The price turned around near the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, so an expectation of a rise to the upper boundary could have been anticipated without the Fed meeting. In the long term, we expect the resumption of the 2025 global trend, with a breakthrough of the 1.1800 level and further growth.

5M Chart for EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, the first trading signal was formed during the US trading session yesterday. The price reached the resistance area of 1.1745-1.1754 but was unable to continue rising. As of Friday morning, the price has bounced off this area. The previous buy signal was formed on Wednesday evening. Traders who opened long positions based on this signal realized a profit of about 60 pips.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to trend higher, though the price has breached the trend line this week. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar; therefore, we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat trend on the daily timeframe persists, and after turning around near the lower boundary, it was reasonable to expect growth toward the upper boundary.

On Friday, beginner traders can trade from the area of 1.1745-1.1754. A price bounce from this area will allow opening short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. A consolidation above this level will signal a long position, with a target at 1.1808.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Friday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone and the US. Only the second estimate of November inflation will be released in Germany. Thus, volatility today may drop to minimal levels, and trading will need to be performed based on technical analysis.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for December 12-15, 2025: buy above $3,200 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

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ETH/USD is trading around $3,235, consolidating above the 200 EMA and around the 21 SMA, which means we could expect an upward movement in the coming days, reaching 3/8 Murray around $3,437 and even returning to the top of the upward trend channel around $3,500.

After reaching $3,440, ETH/USD underwent a technical correction and could extend its downward movement. However, it is showing positive signs, so we must be careful when selling.

Short positions could only make sense if the price of Ether falls below the 200 EMA and $3,190. In this case, we could expect it to reach the 2/8 Murray at 3,125 and could even reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around $3,070.

Technically, the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, but it is likely that ETH/USD will consolidate above the key support of 2/8 Murray. Hence, any pullback and as long as the price trades above $3,050 would be seen as an opportunity to buy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 12-15, 2025: sell below 1.1765 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1735 with a slight technical correction after reaching its weekly high around 1.1765. Over the last few days, we have mentioned in our articles that the EUR/USD pair had upside potential based on our observation of the gap formed on September 25, which was covered yesterday during the US session.

Technically, the euro is reaching overbought levels, so it is more likely that in the coming days there will be a technical correction towards the key 3/8 Murray support around 1.1657.

According to the H4 chart, we can see that the euro has been testing the uptrend channel and is likely to fall in the coming days to reach the bottom of this channel around 1.1672.

A sharp break below the trend channel could change the scenario for the euro, and we could expect it to reach 0/8 Murray around 1.1474, which could even fall further.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell the euro in case of a pullback towards 1.1765. Even if the price reaches the 5/8 Murray, it could also be seen as a signal to open short positions with targets at 1.1657 and finally at the 2/8 Murray at 1.1596.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 12-15, 2025: sell below $4,286 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,271 after consolidating above $4,218. XAU/USD made a strong upward move yesterday during the US session, reaching a high of around $4,287.

Gold tested the top of the uptrend channel formed since early December, which also coincided with the top of the uptrend channel formed since November 7. Both levels act as strong barriers to gold, so we believe a technical correction could occur below $4,286 in the coming days.

Gold could undergo a technical correction in the coming hours and could reach the key 7/8 Murray support around $4,218. Even if the bearish force prevails, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,125.

If gold breaks and consolidates above $4,285 in the coming hours, we could expect it to continue its bullish cycle and could reach the 8/8 Murray around $4,375, but this is unlikely.

As long as the price continues to trade within the uptrend channel formed since early November, we could expect a technical correction to occur in the coming hours, which would be seen as a signal to open short positions if the price consolidates below $4,285.

The Eagle indicator is showing negative signals, so our strategy will be to sell in the coming hours with targets at $4,240, $4,215, and the instrument could even reach $4,190.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 12-15, 2025: sell below $93,700 (200 EMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $92,506 below the 200 EMA and below the 3/8 Murray, showing signs of exhaustion. BTC has been consolidating around this area for more than three weeks.

Bitcoin could continue its rise in the coming hours and could reach the top of the uptrend channel around $95,000. If this scenario occurs, we could expect it to be a strong barrier and could be seen as a signal to open short positions.

Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $93,713, we could look for opportunities to sell, as it is expected to reach the 2/8 Murray around $87,500 in the coming days.

A consolidation below $90,000 could change the Bitcoin scenario, and we could expect it to reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around $86,200.

If Bitcoin breaks above the 200 EMA and above the uptrend channel, a strong acceleration could occur, and it could reach the 4/8 Murray around the psychological level of $100,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we will look for opportunities to sell in the coming days as long as the price remains below $95,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.