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USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.27 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Throughout the day, I did not encounter any other suitable entry points.

Weak U.S. Manufacturing PMI data put pressure on the dollar and helped the Japanese yen strengthen. The PMI index, which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector, came in below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about the outlook for U.S. economic growth. This, in turn, reduced the dollar's appeal. The yen, traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, benefited from the situation. Additional support for the yen comes from expectations of a possible shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Today's relatively weak report on Japan's monetary base had little impact on the yen's exchange rate against the dollar. However, that does not mean the country's economy is stable. Many economists note a slowdown in growth, which could trigger more market volatility. Still, short-term fluctuations in the yen may be tied to global factors, such as changes in U.S. trade policy toward several developed nations. We'll get more details later today, so be prepared for increased market volatility.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 150.03 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.60 (thicker green line). Near 150.60, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal). The best time to buy the pair is during pullbacks or significant dips. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 149.69 level twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and trigger a bullish reversal. A rise toward 150.03 and 150.60 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below 149.69 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 149.07, where I intend to exit short positions and open immediate longs (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce). Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 150.03 twice in a row, with the MACD in overbought territory. This will limit upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal. A decline toward 149.69 and 149.07 may follow.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.2907 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the pound. A second test of 1.2907, with the MACD in the oversold zone, triggered Scenario #2 for buying the pound, but the pair failed to rise afterward, resulting in a loss being locked in.

Weak U.S. Manufacturing PMI data limited the downside potential for the British pound only by the mid-U.S. session. It's clear that today, traders will act cautiously, awaiting further economic signals that could shed light on the interest rate outlooks for both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Despite some volatility, the pound continues to demonstrate resilience. Today, in the absence of UK news, market participants will closely monitor the political landscape, which now entirely hinges on the U.S. tariff decisions.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point near 1.2929 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2980 (thicker green line). Around 1.2980, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip pullback). Buying the pound makes sense only as part of a minor correction within the channel. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the pound after two consecutive tests of 1.2905 when the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside and trigger a bullish reversal. A rise toward 1.2929 and 1.2980 could then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after it breaks below 1.2905 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a swift decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.2859, where I plan to exit short positions and open immediate long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound). Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound after two consecutive tests of 1.2929 when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the upside potential and trigger a bearish reversal. A decline toward 1.2905 and 1.2859 may follow.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0790 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro. A second test of 1.0790, with the MACD in the oversold zone, triggered Scenario #2 for buying the euro, which resulted in a 20-pip rise in the pair.

The euro did not react to yesterday's data on slowing inflation in the eurozone—neither rising nor falling—and remained within its current trading range. The published data showed that the core Consumer Price Index declined to 2.4% from 2.6%, outperforming analyst forecasts. Market participants chose to wait for further European Central Bank commentary on the matter to gain more clarity about the future of monetary policy.

No major macroeconomic releases are scheduled for the eurozone this morning, suggesting moderate trading activity. Investor attention will shift to the U.S. employment data and potential statements from Trump regarding tariffs, which could sharply increase pressure on risk assets, including the euro—so be prepared.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today at 1.0803 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0840. At 1.0840, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry. A bullish move in the euro in the first half of the day can only be expected as a minor correction. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying the euro if there are two consecutive tests of 1.0780, with the MACD in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and likely trigger a bullish reversal. Expect a rise toward 1.0803 and 1.0840.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0780 (red line on the chart), targeting a drop to 1.0740, where I will close short positions and enter long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip rebound). Pressure on the pair may return if there are unexpected tariff-related developments. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro after two consecutive tests of 1.0803, provided the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a bearish reversal. Expect a decline toward 1.0780 and 1.0740.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

$10 Billion: The Price of Mistakes? J&J Back in Legal Storm

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Wall Street Reels, But S&P 500 and Nasdaq Survive

U.S. stocks ended Tuesday with gains in the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite palpable nervousness gripping investors ahead of Donald Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs.

Investors on edge: markets in turmoil

The financial markets have been experiencing high volatility in recent weeks. The reason is fears that the US President's large-scale tariff initiatives could slow down the country's economic growth and spur inflation. While waiting for specifics from the White House, investors are maneuvering between caution and hope.

Markets are waiting for signals from the Rose Garden

All eyes are on Trump's speech tomorrow, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET in the White House Rose Garden. He is expected to announce the details of his tariff policy, and this may clarify at least part of the situation shrouded in guesswork and rumors.

However, even if clarity appears in terms of measures, investors will still face general uncertainty - both regarding the consequences of these steps and the possible reaction of US partners in the trade arena. All this makes the direction of further market movement vague and difficult to predict.

Swings of the day: from minus to confident point

Amid this tense uncertainty, all three major US indexes showed fluctuations throughout the trading session, jumping between growth and decline. Only in the second half of the day did positive dynamics prevail.

The bottom line for the day is as follows: the broad market S&P 500 index added 21.22 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,633.07. The high-tech Nasdaq Composite strengthened by 150.60 points, which is an increase of 0.87%, ending the day at 17,449.89. But the Dow Jones industrial average slightly fell - by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Technology Takes Revenge: Nasdaq Back on Top

On Tuesday, it was the technology sector that became the engine of growth on Wall Street. After a difficult start to the year, the previously damaged IT giants began to confidently regain their positions, pulling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices up with them.

Tesla Accelerates Ahead of the Report

Tesla stood out, its shares jumped by 3.6% amid expectations of fresh statistics on car deliveries for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors are betting on positive figures and waiting for a signal of demand recovery.

Other representatives of the so-called "magnificent seven" - Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) - also showed confident growth, adding from 1% to 1.8%. This strengthened the position of Nasdaq and breathed technological optimism into the market.

Doctors and airlines drag the market down

But not everything was so rosy on the markets. The S&P 500 was under pressure from the healthcare and transportation sectors, which ended up in the red amid corporate and legal setbacks.

Johnson & Johnson was the real outsider of the day. The pharmaceutical giant's shares fell by 7.6%, showing the worst result among all the companies in the index. The reason was a blow in court: an American bankruptcy judge rejected J&J's offer to settle claims for $10 billion. We are talking about a long-standing dispute over talc-based products, which tens of thousands of plaintiffs associate with cancer.

The airline market is on the decline: anxiety over demand

Airlines also showed weakness. Shares of Delta, American Airlines and Southwest fell in the range of 2.4% to 5.9%. This was the result of analysts at Jefferies revising investment ratings downwards. Financial experts have expressed concern that macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in consumer sentiment could negatively impact demand for both business and leisure travel.

IPO Newbies Are Rocking the Market: Newsmax and CoreWeave Are Riding High

Amid the general market turbulence, some newcomers to the exchange have become the real stars of the trading session. Among them is media player Newsmax, whose shares have demonstrated a dizzying rise for the second day in a row.

After a stunning start on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, when the company's shares rose by more than 700%, they jumped another 208% on Tuesday. Given Newsmax's politically charged and Trump-friendly image, investor interest was literally explosive.

CoreWeave Startup Rising After a Shaky Debut

Another participant in the recent IPO, AI company CoreWeave, has also pleased investors. Despite an uncertain first step after going public on Friday, its shares added an impressive 41.8% on Tuesday, exceeding the announced offering price. This signals strong demand for AI stocks despite market risks.

Gold finds support, Asia wavers

While some investors are chasing the hype of new releases, others are turning their attention to more conservative assets. Gold prices have begun to show signs of recovery — the metal is traditionally seen as a "safe haven" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Asian markets, meanwhile, remained in a range of moderate volatility. Despite a shaky start, they managed to avoid sharp declines, following a more confident finish to trading on Wall Street. European futures are so far signaling a calm but cautious start.

Tariff time bomb

Investors are still keeping in mind the "hour X" — Donald Trump's planned statement on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day." In essence, we are talking about a large-scale initiative to introduce new import duties - both against strategic opponents and traditional US allies.

The announcement ceremony is scheduled for 20:00 GMT and will take place in a landmark location - the Rose Garden near the White House. And although market participants are waiting for specifics, no real relief from uncertainty is expected yet.

Quick measures, tough responses

Perhaps the most alarming detail is the lack of a negotiating phase. According to available data, tariff measures will be introduced immediately, which sharply reduces the room for diplomatic maneuvers and, on the contrary, increases the likelihood of a quick response from the affected countries.

This creates the basis for increased volatility in the markets in the coming days - from exchange rates to stock indices. Analysts do not rule out sharp jumps and new nervous sell-offs.

Tariff barrage: metal, cars and China under attack

The White House has already taken the first steps in implementing a tough trade strategy. Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on key import categories, from aluminum and steel to automobiles. He has also significantly increased tariffs on a whole range of Chinese products. These actions have resonated in global markets, increasing fears of a trade confrontation that could paralyze global economic growth.

Economists are sounding the alarm: the threat of a full-scale trade war is becoming increasingly real. Tensions between Washington and its main trading partners, including Beijing, threaten to go beyond diplomacy and enter the phase of a systemic conflict that could hit global supply chains and slow down the recovery of the world economy.

Gold shines amid anxiety

Amid growing risks, investors have flocked to safe haven assets, and, above all, to gold. The "yellow metal" is confidently storming new historical heights, having exceeded the psychological mark of $3,000 per ounce.

Gold has already gained 19% since the start of the year, continuing a strong upward trend after a remarkable 27% gain in 2024, the best year for the precious metal in a decade. The rise in prices reflects not only fears of geopolitical and economic shocks, but also growing demand from central banks and large institutional players seeking to preserve capital in an unstable environment.

Not gold, but a barometer of fear

With markets reeling from conflicting signals – from tariff threats to volatile inflation and unclear interest rate prospects – gold is once again becoming a universal indicator of anxiety. Its rise speaks not only of the demand for stability, but also of how deeply rooted the fears among investors are.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 2

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The euro and the pound are trading within sideways channels, but both currencies are experiencing increasing pressure. Today's key development is expected to arise from the announcement of trade tariffs by the United States, along with relevant details. There are no significant economic data releases from the eurozone or the UK today.

Yesterday's data showing a slowdown in price growth in the eurozone failed to support the euro since easing inflation gives the European Central Bank room to continue cutting interest rates. The market seems to be pricing in more complex factors than just current inflation figures. Traders will seek additional signals from the ECB regarding the future trajectory of interest rates, paying special attention to how the ECB evaluates the influence of geopolitical tensions from tariffs and the energy crisis on the regional economy.

As mentioned above, there are no eurozone releases in the first half of the day, so trading will likely remain subdued. Traders will likely await news from the U.S., where labor market data is expected. These figures could significantly influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on monetary policy going forward. The focus will also shift toward trade tariffs, which are raising concerns over slowing global growth and prompting market participants to remain cautious and avoid risky assets.

If the information about tariffs matches economist expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is preferable. If the data turns out significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (on breakout):

EUR/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.0813, targeting 1.0850 and 1.0884

Sell on a breakout below 1.0780, targeting 1.0757 and 1.0730

GBP/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.2939, targeting 1.2970 and 1.2988

Sell on a breakout below 1.2903, targeting 1.2868 and 1.2838

USD/JPY

Buy on a breakout above 149.95, targeting 150.20 and 150.50

Sell on a breakout below 149.62, targeting 149.30 and 148.97

Mean Reversion Strategy (on pullbacks):

EUR/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.0809 with a return below that level

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.0785 with a return back above that level

GBP/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.2934 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.2899 with a return back above

AUD/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6318 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6267 with a return back above

USD/CAD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4313 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4263 with a return back above

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on April 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There will be very few macroeconomic events on Wednesday, but yesterday showed us that even a large number of macro reports do not always trigger significant movement—even within the day. Today, the only notable release will be the ADP Employment Report in the U.S., which reflects changes in private-sector employment. In other words, it's essentially a less significant version of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The market will draw final conclusions based on the NonFarms, not the ADP data.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, a few speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials, including Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel, and Adriana Kugler, are worth mentioning. However, we'd like to point out that today is April 2, and Donald Trump has yet to make official announcements regarding new tariffs. The market is waiting, as the tariff issue has been practically the only factor driving currency market movements in recent weeks. We believe the market has calmed down somewhat concerning tariffs, and a substantial decline in the dollar is unlikely. However, no one knows precisely what tariffs Trump will announce. If the U.S. president's decision turns out to be unexpected, a strong market reaction cannot be ruled out.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade actively but could change direction multiple times throughout the day. There will be a few reports and events today. The market continues to wait for Trump's announcement on new tariffs. Once that information is released, strong movements are possible.

As a reminder, the British pound has been trading flat for weeks, while the euro has entered a phase of total confusion.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on April 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair continued trading within a flat range, just as it has for several weeks. The macroeconomic background of the UK and the U.S. had virtually no impact on the pair's intraday movement. Volatility remains quite low, and the price isn't even testing the boundaries of the sideways channel. As we warned at the beginning of the week, a strong macro or fundamental backdrop does not guarantee the end of a flat phase or the emergence of a solid trend.

For example, yesterday's UK Manufacturing PMI came in weak—but so did the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the JOLTS report. So, in theory, the pound could have declined in the first half of the day and the dollar in the second half. In reality, we didn't see clean or logical movements, and yesterday's reports couldn't pull the pair out of its sideways range. As for Donald Trump, there have still been no updates regarding tariffs.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, quite a few signals formed near the 1.2913 level on Tuesday, but the movements were random, chaotic, and flat—as we've repeatedly warned recently. The 1.2913 level was practically ignored throughout the day and lies nearly at the center of the sideways channel. And within a flat range, it's generally best to trade bounces from the edges, not the midpoint.

Trading Strategy for Wednesday:

In the 1-hour timeframe, GBP/USD should have already started a downtrend, but Trump continues to do everything possible to prevent that from happening. We still expect the pound to fall toward the 1.1800 target in the medium term. However, no one knows how long the dollar's decline driven by "Trump risk" will last. Once this movement ends, the technical picture across all timeframes could change dramatically. For now, long-term trends still point south.

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair may continue trading flat. Remember that even extremely strong macroeconomic reports and fundamental news do not guarantee strong price movement. So, the pair may again remain within the 1.2860–1.2980 range today.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the current key levels for intraday trading are: 1.2301, 1.2372–1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107.

No significant events are scheduled in the UK for Wednesday. In the U.S., only the ADP Employment Change report will be released, which isn't particularly impactful since the more critical NonFarm Payrolls will follow it on Friday. However, today, we may finally learn what new tariffs Trump plans to implement—and who he's targeting in the next round of trade battles.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 2? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Tuesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade in the same mode as in previous weeks. What does that mean? Relatively weak movements, frequent pullbacks and corrections, no clear intraday direction, and overall confusion. We want to remind novice traders that market price movements can vary greatly. Trading signals can also be varied. The number one task for a trader is to trade during a favorable time for them and their trading system. It's no secret that trading systems can be trend-following or range-based. A trend-following system won't work in a flat market. Therefore, during flat conditions, the system must be temporarily adjusted.

Yesterday, a series of fairly important reports from the Eurozone and the U.S. failed to provoke decent price moves. Inflation in the EU slowed down but didn't create significant problems for the euro. U.S. JOLTS and ISM indexes came out weaker than expected, yet the dollar didn't show any notable decline. The market continues to wait and ignore.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were formed on Tuesday, but there's no point in analyzing them. The 1.0797–1.0804 area was crossed and tested multiple times throughout the day. It was impossible to know in advance how the movements would unfold. However, traders could have worked with the first and second signals. Both turned out to be false, but neither resulted in losses. After that, it was better not to open any more positions.

Trading Strategy for Wednesday:

In the 1-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains in a medium-term downtrend, but the likelihood of its continuation is decreasing. Since the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop still favors the U.S. dollar far more than the euro, we continue to expect a decline. However, Donald Trump continues to exert significant pressure on the dollar, and the market is visibly nervous and unable to settle on a clear strategy.

The pair may resume its downward movement on Wednesday, but this week is full of important events, which could only add more confusion. Also, today is April 2, and we still haven't heard which tariffs Trump decided to implement.

On the 5-minute chart, consider the following levels for Wednesday: 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0859–1.0861, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1048.

We note the ADP employment change report in the U.S. from important reports, though it is conditionally important. While there may be some market reaction to this report, the Nonfarm Payrolls report released on Friday is more critical, as it provides a clearer picture of the labor market conditions.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 2: The Pound Still Stuck in Place

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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to trade in a flat range. On the 4-hour timeframe, this is a classic flat; on the lower timeframes, it looks more like a "swing." Tuesday brought no significant changes to the market. Naturally, some movement occurred during the day simply because the UK and the U.S. released macroeconomic reports. Additionally, the market is anticipating new tariffs from Donald Trump. However, none of this changes the fact that the pound has traded sideways for nearly a month.

It's also worth noting that the pound hasn't even attempted a downward correction after its strong rally. We understand that Trump's tariff policy implies serious shifts in the global economy, and the dollar, as "Trump's currency," is currently out of favor among traders. However, it's important to point out that expectations don't always align with reality. In other words, the U.S. economy hasn't started slowing down, and Trump hasn't yet implemented all of his planned tariffs or heard the responses from all his trade partners — yet the market has already priced in the worst-case scenario for the U.S. economy. Naturally, that scenario is a recession — one even the Federal Reserve does not believe in. However, traders don't care about the Fed's opinion; they follow the narratives that tell them to sell the dollar.

The British pound has its reasons for holding ground against the dollar. During the latest Bank of England meeting, it became clear that the British central bank is not in a hurry to cut the key interest rate — even though at the beginning of the year, there was widespread expectation of four rounds of easing in 2025. However, inflation in the UK continues to rise, forcing the BoE to act more cautiously. Then again, the Fed also doesn't plan to cut rates — and might even abandon easing altogether in 2025.

Still, none of this changes the fact that the dollar refuses to rise even when there are valid reasons for it. And if it does rise, it's weak and sluggish. In any case, that growth occurs within the boundaries of a flat market.

As we've already mentioned, plenty of important events are lined up this week, and April 2 (today) is one of the key days. So, there's a sense that the market may "explode," and we could see a breakout. But at the same time, we would prefer to see a downward movement, as the technical picture on higher timeframes completely contradicts trader behavior. The market continues to respond only to one factor — Trump's trade wars. Even on the 4-hour chart, the technical picture isn't much better: we still see a flat range. Therefore, trading in either direction is highly questionable. In short, it's a complex and ambiguous situation — as expected when Trump is president.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 79 pips, which is considered "average" for this currency pair. On Monday, March 31, we expect the pair to trade within a range limited by 1.2843 and 1.3001. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the downtrend remains intact on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1: 1.2817

S2: 1.2695

S3: 1.2573

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.2939

R2: 1.3062

R3: 1.3184

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to follow a medium-term downtrend, while the 4-hour chart shows a very weak correction that could end at any moment, as the market still refuses to buy the dollar. We still do not recommend long positions, as we believe the current upward movement is simply a daily timeframe correction that has already become technically illogical.

However, if you trade purely on technical signals, long positions are still valid with targets at 1.3001 and 1.3062—though keep in mind that the market is flat regardless. Sell orders remain attractive, targeting 1.2207 and 1.2146 since the daily timeframe's upward correction will eventually end (assuming the downtrend hasn't ended by then). The British pound appears extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive, but it's difficult to predict how long the dollar's "Trump-driven" decline will continue.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Pair Overview – April 2: The Dollar Gets Unlucky Again

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading sluggishly and reluctantly on Tuesday. The market continued anticipating new tariffs from Donald Trump, even though the macroeconomic background was very strong yesterday. While there was some response from the market, the volatility fell short of expectations. The dollar still struggles with any upward movement. The market seems to buy the U.S. currency occasionally (apparently when there's no alternative), but the growth is weak even then.

Yesterday's European data was difficult to interpret unambiguously. Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the EU rose but mainly stayed within forecasted ranges. There's little reason for a market reaction when actual values match expectations. A more significant report on eurozone inflation showed a decline from 2.3% to 2.2% y/y, which could have triggered euro selling. At the same time, however, eurozone unemployment unexpectedly fell from 6.2% to 6.1%. As a result, one key report offsets the other. The euro slightly dropped for formality's sake, but that was the extent of Tuesday's movement in the first half of the day.

We believe that inflation in the EU nearing the European Central Bank's target opens the door for further monetary easing. Everything is currently lining up in the ECB's favor. Inflation is close to the target level (unlike in the UK or the U.S.), which allows for rate cuts. Economic growth remains weak, calling for softer monetary policy. Donald Trump may introduce tariffs that could drive inflation higher, but Europe isn't expecting a strong acceleration. The prevailing sentiment is: "Don't count your chickens before they hatch." Only once new tariffs are imposed will assessing the potential damage and adjusting the monetary approach make sense. Until then, there's no reason to panic.

Thus, we believe the market again missed a good opportunity to push EUR/USD lower. The euro has corrected by about 220 pips after falling 700–800, but that is not enough to consider the correction convincing. The market no longer reacts to Trump's tariffs with heavy dollar sales like before but is also not eager to buy the dollar. On higher timeframes, the downtrend remains, which implies strong and sustained dollar growth—but this requires both technical and fundamental justification. At the very least, Trump must stop introducing new tariffs weekly. Overall, the likelihood of the pair moving toward parity still exists, but close monitoring of the market's reaction to the U.S. president's actions is essential.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of April 2) is 71 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0730 and 1.0872 on Wednesday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the broader downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1: 1.0742

S2: 1.0620

S3: 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1: 1.0864

R2: 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

EUR/USD continues a weak downward correction. For months now, we've maintained that the euro should decline in the medium term—and this outlook remains unchanged. Aside from Trump, the dollar still has no reason to fall in the medium term. However, Trump alone may be enough to keep pressure on the dollar, as nearly all other factors are being ignored.

Short positions remain much more attractive, targeting 1.0315 and 1.0254. However, it's difficult to say whether the Trump-driven rally has ended. If you trade purely on technical signals, long positions can be considered if the price is above the moving average, targeting 1.0864 and 1.0872.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast for April 2, 2025

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By the end of yesterday, the euro fell by 25 pips, but risk appetite in the market continued to grow: the S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the yield on 5-year U.S. government bonds held steady for the third day at 3.95%, and the dollar index posted a symbolic gain of just 0.03%. However, PMI indexes from both the eurozone and the U.S. favored the American economy, and as expected, investors reacted accordingly, mainly ignoring the eurozone's drop in unemployment and inflation figures. The eurozone's Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.6 to 48.6 (below the forecast of 48.7), while the U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped from 52.7 to 50.2, better than the expected 49.8.

Markets (if you believe the U.S. Democratic media) assume the reciprocal tariffs will harm the U.S. more, as Europe is expected to benefit from increased infrastructure and military spending. However, we do not support this view. Broader infrastructure projects began developing in the U.S. much earlier—during Obama's last presidential term—and in May, a decisive new phase of QE by the U.S. Treasury is set to begin to boost domestic manufacturing. This plan was delayed under Biden, and Trump now intends to compensate for lost time. We believe the real economy, as reflected in the PMI data, remains optimistic. Friday's U.S. employment data for March will carry strategic weight.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is starting to wind around the zero line. Price may consolidate above the 1.0762 support level. Risk appetite and buying pressure for the euro remain strong, so we maintain our scenario of a rise toward 1.0955 and potentially to 1.1027 as the main outlook. A sustained move below 1.0762 could still push the price down to 1.0667.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is also neutral, while the price is developing above the balance line (red MA). The pair could gradually decline to the 1.0762 support without breaking below the balance line, then rebound and head higher through the MACD line. Whether the rally begins from current levels or a rebound off support, the condition for further growth will be a consolidation above the MACD line. Today, this level is at 1.0816. Tomorrow, it could shift to 1.0800.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast for April 2, 2025

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Yesterday's data on UK manufacturing activity for March showed a decline from 46.9 to 44.9. Against the backdrop of the U.S. index falling from 52.7 to 50.2, the drop in the UK index looks discouraging — especially since this is the lowest figure since October 2023. Investors pushed the pound slightly lower, but by the end of the day, it returned to previous levels in anticipation of the upcoming "tariff announcement."

As reflected in the media, market expectations remain moderately optimistic — that is, tariffs for the UK will be more lenient compared to mainland Europe. We agree with this assessment and expect the pound to rise from 1.3001 to 1.3101. The Marlin oscillator has dipped into negative territory but appears ready to stabilize horizontally.

On the H4 chart, the price is struggling around the balance line. For bulls to strengthen their positions, the price must consolidate above the MACD line — above 1.2933. The target at 1.3001 would then become achievable. The Marlin oscillator is attempting to enter positive territory and is close to doing so — this is the main scenario.

The price would need to break below the 1.2816/47 range to develop a bearish scenario. This would open the path to the target at 1.2714.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin Forecast for April 2, 2025

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Bitcoin (BTC)

After reaching the support level of 81,231 (the approximate low from March 4 and 18), the price approached the MACD line (86,038). A breakout above this line would allow further growth toward the next target level, 90,873, and then 94,966.

The simultaneous upward reversal of the Marlin oscillator from the zero line, combined with the price rebound, increases the likelihood of this bullish scenario. Overall, the rise in cryptocurrencies is associated with new risk-on sentiment in the markets.

On the H4 chart, the MACD line is slightly below today's high of 85,554.

A consolidation above this recent high would indicate that a new group of bulls is joining the upward momentum. The Marlin oscillator is in positive territory. Increased volatility is possible near these key resistance levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 2: Monday Quietly Slipped Into Tuesday

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Tuesday in the same manner as on Monday. Yesterday, we warned that despite the large number of macroeconomic events, they might not influence the market sentiment or the pair's movement. The reports were important but didn't ignite any greater desire among market participants to trade more actively. Of course, we should highlight the eurozone inflation report, which slowed to 2.2% YoY in March—below economists' forecasts. Core inflation also slowed to 2.4%. As we can see, both indicators are already near the European Central Bank's target level. The ECB may take occasional pauses in easing simply because it has already cut rates six times, and the process needs to slow down. However, the ECB still has no reason to stop easing monetary policy.

We should also mention the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49 in March—worse than expected. Thus, even if the dollar wanted to appreciate slightly ahead of Trump's new tariffs, it didn't have much chance. The dollar has been gaining somewhat in recent weeks, but the movement is so weak that it feels like the market is either waiting for something significant—or simply resting. And such a rest could last for months.

On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, several trading signals were formed, but there was little point in acting on them. All signals emerged between the level of 1.0823 and the Kijun-sen line, which lay around 1.0790—just a 33-pip range. Volatility was very low. Was there any value in opening positions with a Take Profit set at approximately 15-20 pips?

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated March 25. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had remained bullish for a long time. Bears struggled to gain dominance, but now the bulls have retaken the initiative. The bears' advantage has faded since Trump became President, and the dollar started plummeting. We cannot say with certainty that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, as COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which, under current circumstances, can change rapidly.

We still see no fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro, but one very significant factor has emerged for the weakening of the dollar. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downward trend will not be reversed so quickly.

The red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating that the market trend is now "bullish." During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 800, while the number of short positions decreased by 5,200. Accordingly, the net position increased by another 44,400 thousand contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly chart, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair ended very quickly once Trump began introducing new tariffs. Due to the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed, the decline will likely resume in the medium term. However, it's unclear how long the market will keep pricing in the "Trump factor." It's also unknown how much time the market needs to return to previous levels of volatility. Traders are ignoring many news items and data releases, and the dollar is being sold off at every opportunity—yet it still can't manage to rise even when it has the reasons to do so.

For April 2, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0340–1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0868) and Kijun-sen (1.0791) lines. Remember that the Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price moves 15 pips in the correct direction. This will help protect against potential losses if the signal is false.

On Wednesday, the only potentially notable event is the ADP report on changes in nonfarm employment. This is considered an analog of the Nonfarm Payrolls report, though it's much less significant and has no consistent correlation with its "big brother." Therefore, the market may react to this release, but a strong reaction is unlikely.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on April 2: The Market Continues to Rest

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade similarly on Tuesday, as it has over the last few weeks. All price movements have occurred between 1.2863 and 1.2981 for the past two weeks. The Ichimoku indicator lines are being ignored during this flat phase. The macroeconomic background is irrelevant as the price continues to move sideways. The current technical situation for the pound is highly favorable. Of course, the market reacts to individual reports, but such movements are practically pointless to trade.

Yesterday, the UK published its March manufacturing PMI. The figure dropped to 44.9 points, while the market expected 44.6. So, how should this report be interpreted? Business activity declined again, but not as sharply as expected... Still, there's little positive news coming out of the UK. In the U.S., aside from the ISM index, the JOLTs job openings report was released, which also had no impact. Job openings in February amounted to 7.568 million, below market expectations. So, both U.S. reports underperformed—just like the only one from the UK.

In the 5-minute timeframe, the price bounced off the Kijun-sen line three times on Tuesday. All three signals were inaccurate. Since the flat range is visible even from a mile away on the hourly chart, we believe it made no sense to open short positions based on these signals. In a flat market, trading off the range boundaries is viable. But the pair doesn't seem willing to reach those boundaries. Notably, all three signals provided at least a minor move in the correct direction, so incurring losses would have been complex.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has constantly shifted in recent years. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and usually stay close to the zero line. They are again near each other, indicating a roughly equal number of long and short positions.

On the weekly timeframe, the price first broke through the 1.3154 level and then dropped to the trendline, which it successfully breached. Breaking the trendline suggests a high probability of further GBP decline. However, the bounce from the previous local low on the weekly timeframe is also worth noting. We may be looking at a broad flat.

According to the latest COT report for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 13,000 new long contracts and closed 1,800 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose again—by 14,800 contracts.

The fundamental background still provides no grounds for long-term GBP purchases, and the currency remains vulnerable to continuing the global downtrend. The pound has risen significantly recently, and the primary reason for this increase is Donald Trump's policy.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly chart, GBP/USD remains completely flat. The upward correction on the daily chart has long overstayed. We still don't see any substantial justification for a long-term GBP rally. The only supportive factor is Donald Trump, who continues to announce sanctions and tariffs left and right. However, even this factor has started to lose its impact on the market. Therefore, we must wait for the flat to end and then determine a new trend on the hourly chart.

For April 2, the following levels are highlighted for trading: 1.2331–1.2349, 1.2429–1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605–1.2620, 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119. The Senkou Span B (1.2949) and Kijun-sen (1.2929) lines may also be signal sources. Moving your Stop Loss to breakeven if the price moves 20 pips in the right direction is recommended. Ichimoku lines may shift throughout the day, which must be considered when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, the UK's economic calendar is empty, and the only U.S. report will be the ADP employment change, which may trigger a slight intraday reaction but is unlikely to have a long-term effect. Donald Trump may announce new tariffs overnight, which is notable. However, it's worth remembering that the last tariff announcement from the U.S. president caused virtually no market reaction.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis – April 1: EU Inflation Continues to Fall

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The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart risks evolving into a more complex formation. On September 25 of last year, a new bearish structure began to take shape, forming an impulsive five-wave pattern. Three months ago, an upward corrective pattern began, which should consist of at least three waves. The structure of the first wave was relatively clear, so I'm still expecting the second wave to take a distinct form. However, its size is now so large that there's a real risk of the wave layout undergoing a serious transformation.

The fundamental backdrop continues to support sellers more than buyers, at least from a data perspective. All U.S. reports in recent months have shown one thing—the economy is not facing serious problems and shows no signs of slowing to worrying levels. However, this could change significantly in 2025 due to Donald Trump's policies. The Fed might cut interest rates more times than expected, while tariffs and retaliatory measures could hurt economic growth. If it weren't for recent developments, I would still expect the euro to decline with a 90% probability. But it's still possible.

The EUR/USD pair fell by just a few dozen points on Tuesday—a small move for a supposedly strong dollar. Yesterday, German inflation slowed to 2.2% year-on-year. Today, inflation in the eurozone also slowed to 2.2%. These reports indicate there is no real need for the ECB to pause its monetary easing. Naturally, the ECB is wary of Trump's tariffs, details of which could be announced today or tomorrow. Economists have already calculated that prices for nearly all cars worldwide will rise because of the new U.S. duties—even those manufactured in the United States. That means rising prices and accelerating inflation, especially for high-cost goods. Therefore, fears of renewed consumer price growth are justified—not only in the EU, but also in the U.S. and globally. The big question is: how sharply will inflation rise, and what other tariffs might Trump introduce?

In my view, the market is currently juggling an overwhelming number of factors and possible future economic shifts. With so much uncertainty, it's in no hurry to form new positions. Demand for the dollar is slowly increasing, but this is likely due to profit-taking on dollar shorts accumulated over recent months. The wave picture still points to a continuation of the bearish trend—but to buy the dollar, the market needs clear reasons. And what could those reasons be if Trump is constantly threatening, imposing tariffs, making demands, and issuing ultimatums?

Still, I don't want to ignore the wave count entirely, so I continue to expect a decline in the pair.

General Conclusions

Based on this EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair is continuing to build a bearish trend segment—but in the near future, it could turn bullish. A new upward push in the euro would transform the entire wave structure. Since the news backdrop currently contradicts the wave count, I can't recommend selling the pair, even though the current levels look extremely attractive for shorting—if the wave pattern remains intact. Everything will depend on how strongly the market continues to react to Trump's tariff policies and what additional tariffs the Republican president may introduce.

On the higher wave scale, the pattern has transitioned into an impulsive structure. A new long-term bearish wave sequence is likely ahead, though the news backdrop—particularly driven by Trump—could completely flip market expectations.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If you're uncertain about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.

Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis for GBP/USD on April 1, 2025

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The wave structure for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous but generally manageable. Currently, there is a high probability of a long-term bearish trend formation. Wave 5 has taken on a convincing form, so I consider the larger Wave 1 to be complete. If this assumption is correct, Wave 2 is still in progress. The first two subwaves within Wave 2 appear to be complete. The third could finish at any moment—or may have already ended.

Demand for the British pound has recently been supported primarily by the "Trump factor," which remains the pound's main ally. However, in the longer term—beyond a few days—the pound still lacks any real fundamental basis for growth. The stance of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve has recently shifted slightly in favor of the pound, as the BoE now also seems in no rush to cut interest rates. The current wave structure hasn't been violated, but a new upward move in the pair would raise serious concerns about its validity.

GBP/USD once again attempted to decline on Tuesday, but the move lacked strength. Essentially, horizontal movement continues, so I see no clear confirmation that the corrective wave is over. Interestingly, despite strong upward movement in recent months, the wave structure has remained intact. The pound has formed a corrective wave up to 61.8% but cannot complete it—mainly because Donald Trump keeps suppressing dollar demand. Many economic reports are simply being ignored by the market, with the "Trump factor" seen as more important.

For example, today's UK Manufacturing PMI fell from 46.9 to 44.9. Remember: any reading below 50 is considered weak and negative. Over the past three years, this index has only briefly risen above the 50 mark. And the problem of weak industrial production is not unique to the UK.

Still, with yesterday's data release from the UK, one might have expected a decline in demand for the pound. Of course, it's not a key figure that would justify a 100-point drop—especially with new tariffs from Donald Trump looming, which could pressure the pound even more. However, in recent weeks, the market has found no reason at all to reduce demand for the pound. How to adjust for this, and what to do with the wave count, remains unclear. Today, U.S. manufacturing activity indexes will be released, as well as the JOLTs job openings report for February. The ISM Manufacturing Index would need to come in above 50 to give the dollar a modest boost—but economists expect a decline to 49.8.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD indicates that a bearish trend segment is still underway, as is its second wave. At this point, I would advise looking for new short entry points, as the current wave count still supports the formation of a downward trend that began last autumn. However, how long Donald Trump's policies will continue to influence market sentiment remains a mystery. The current appreciation of the pound appears excessive relative to the existing wave structure, but I still anticipate a decline toward the 1.20 level and possibly lower.

On a higher wave scale, the structure has shifted. We may now be seeing the beginning of a new downward trend segment, as the previous upward three-wave pattern appears to be complete. If that assumption holds, we should expect a corrective wave 2 or b, followed by an impulsive wave 3 or c.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you're unsure about the market situation, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 1st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Review and Japanese Yen Trading Recommendations

The test of the 149.93 level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I didn't buy the dollar. I also didn't get a second test of the 149.93 level to enter a sell position and ended up missing the downward move.

Today's upcoming public statement by FOMC member Thomas Barkin is under close market scrutiny. Given Barkin's known preference for a more conservative monetary policy stance, his speech—especially on the eve of key developments tomorrow—may have a significant impact on the dollar's performance. In the current climate of uncertainty around the Fed's next moves due to upcoming U.S. tariff announcements (details expected tomorrow), few are willing to take risks. Any hawkish remarks will likely be interpreted as a signal to strengthen the U.S. currency.

As for intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today after the pair reaches the entry point at around 149.75 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.60 (thicker green line). Near 150.60, I will exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). The pair's upward move may be considered a corrective rebound. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.27 level while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward 149.75 and 150.60 is possible.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below the 149.27 level (red line on the chart), which may trigger a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 148.62, where I plan to exit short positions and open long ones immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Pressure on the pair can emerge at any moment. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 149.75 level while the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap the upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A drop toward the 149.27 and 148.62 levels can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected level to set Take Profit or manually lock in gains, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected level to set Take Profit or manually lock in gains, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, always be mindful of overbought and oversold zones

Important Notice for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without them, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you don't apply proper money management or trade with large positions.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 1st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Review and British Pound Trading Recommendations

The test of the 1.2925 level occurred just as the MACD indicator was beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points, although it didn't quite reach the target level.

A mediocre UK manufacturing PMI, which remained below the 50-point threshold, pressured the pound. The released data indicated ongoing issues in the manufacturing sector, raising concerns among investors about the UK's economic growth prospects. A weak PMI is often seen as a sign of slowing economic activity, which in this case reinforced bearish sentiment toward the pound. Weak economic data may push the Bank of England to continue cutting interest rates, reducing the pound's appeal for yield-seeking investors.

In the second half of the day, similar data is expected from the United States. The focus will be on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The market will closely analyze these reports, as they may shed light on the current state of the U.S. economy and potentially influence future monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve.

The ISM index, in particular, is a key gauge of manufacturing activity—values above 50 indicate expansion, while those below 50 suggest contraction. JOLTS data, which reflect job openings and turnover, are also important as they indicate labor market demand and worker sentiment. A high number of job openings signals confidence from companies and willingness to hire, while high turnover may indicate workers searching for better opportunities. Strong data would support further dollar strength.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today after reaching the 1.2939 entry point (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 1.3018 (thicker green line). I'll exit long positions near 1.2980 and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point pullback). A rise in the pound is only likely after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2907 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit downward potential and lead to a market reversal. A rise toward 1.2939 and 1.2980 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.2907 (red line on the chart), which would lead to a sharp decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be 1.2859, where I'll exit short positions and consider buying in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers will likely gain momentum if U.S. data comes out strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2939 level when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will cap the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal. A decline toward 1.2907 and 1.2859 can be expected.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – entry price to buy the instrument
• Thick green line – projected price for setting a Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth beyond this point is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price to sell the instrument
• Thick red line – projected price for setting a Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline beyond this point is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when deciding to enter the market. It's best to avoid trading during the release of key fundamental reports to prevent getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you risk losing your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 1st (U.S. Session)

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Trade Review and Euro Trading Recommendations

The test of the 1.0817 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, after a 17-point drop, the pressure on the pair subsided.

The anticipated weak PMI data from the Eurozone manufacturing sector failed to exert the expected pressure on the euro. Under current circumstances, this is unlikely to significantly affect the European Central Bank's actions, so traders are in wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow's information from Trump regarding tariffs. It's clear that in the short term, the euro will likely remain under pressure due to weak economic data and uncertainty around the ECB's future policy.

Today, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and JOLTS job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are due. However, the most interesting event will be the speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin. Traders are paying close attention to each Federal Reserve official's comments and hints. Given the uncertainty around future interest rate policy, any signals indicating a hawkish stance are seen as cues to support the dollar.

Thomas Barkin, known for favoring tighter monetary policy, could influence market expectations. If he confirms the Fed's willingness to keep rates elevated for longer than expected, it could spark a rise in Treasury yields and, as a result, enhance the dollar's attractiveness to investors. Conversely, if Barkin's tone is softer than expected, the dollar may come under pressure.

As for the intraday strategy, I'll rely more on the execution of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today upon reaching the 1.0820 entry point (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.0855. At 1.0855, I plan to exit long positions and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. Buying the euro today is only justified if U.S. data disappoints and Fed officials strike a dovish tone. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today after two consecutive tests of the 1.0790 level, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward 1.0820 and 1.0855 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0790 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0762, where I intend to exit short positions and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point bounce. Pressure on the pair could return if Fed officials adopt a hawkish tone. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today after two consecutive tests of the 1.0820 level, when the MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline to the 1.0790 and 1.0762 levels can be expected.

Chart Reference Guide:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit or profit-taking area, as further growth is unlikely beyond this point
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit or profit-taking area, as further decline is unlikely beyond this point
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to watch for overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you're not applying proper money management and trading with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are typically a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 1 (Review of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.2916 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A decline and the formation of a false breakout at that level led to a buying opportunity for the pound, but after a 10-point rise, demand quickly faded, partially due to the UK data. The technical picture was revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

The mediocre UK manufacturing PMI, which remained below the 50-point mark, limited the pound's bullish potential in the first half of the day. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index and JOLTS job openings report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are unlikely to significantly shift the balance of power in the second half of the day. However, if the data comes in much better than expected, it would be wise to bet on dollar strength.

If the pair declines, I prefer to act around the 1.2903 support level. A false breakout there, similar to the earlier example, would provide a good entry point for long positions with a target of restoring the price to the 1.2939 resistance level. A breakout and retest of this range from top to bottom will provide a new entry point for longs, with the goal of testing 1.2970. The final target will be the 1.2988 area, where I plan to take profit.

If GBP/USD declines and there is no buyer activity around 1.2903 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will significantly increase. In that case, only a false breakout around 1.2868 would be a valid condition for entering long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2837 support level with a target of a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers prevented a larger bullish correction in the pair, keeping it within the sideways channel until key U.S. data was released. In case of weak U.S. figures, the pound may rise, but only a false breakout near 1.2939 would provide a short entry signal, aiming for a decline toward the newly formed 1.2903 support. A breakout and retest of this range from below will trigger stop-loss orders and open the way toward 1.2868, negating any attempts by buyers to regain control. The final target will be 1.2837, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level would confirm a return to a bearish market.

If demand for the pound returns in the second half of the day and bears fail to act around 1.2939—where the moving averages are also located and favor the sellers—then it's better to delay short positions until a test of the 1.2970 resistance. I'll open shorts there only after a false breakout. If there's no downward movement from that level either, I'll look for short positions from 1.2988 on a rebound, expecting a 30–35 point correction down.

In the Commitments of Traders (COT) report for March 25, there was an increase in long positions and a reduction in shorts. Buying activity on the pound continues, which is visible on the chart. While many risk assets have declined, the GBP/USD pair shows relative stability. Considering the latest inflation data from the UK and comments from Bank of England officials, it is likely that the regulator will leave policy unchanged at the upcoming April meeting, which may temporarily support the pound. However, the impact of U.S. tariffs remains a critical factor. A heightened risk of global economic slowdown will intensify pressure on risk assets, including the pound.

The latest COT report shows long non-commercial positions rose by 13,075 to 109,016, while short positions declined by 1,806 to 64,733. As a result, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 1,548.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2895 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Smooths volatility and noise to define the trend. Period – 50 (yellow); Period – 30 (green).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; Signal line SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators like individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: The total open long positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: The total open short positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 1st (Review of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.0815 and planned to make market entry decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. A decline did occur, but there was no formation of a false breakout, so no entry point was confirmed. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Rather weak data on manufacturing activity in Eurozone countries understandably did not support the euro in the first half of the day. In the second half, similar data will be released in the U.S., including the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and a speech from FOMC member Thomas Barkin. A hawkish tone from the Fed representative—especially ahead of tomorrow's crucial announcements—could support the dollar.

If the euro declines after the reports, only a false breakout around the 1.0787 support level will serve as a signal for new long positions in EUR/USD, aiming for a return of the bullish trend and a retest of 1.0818. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid entry point for buying with a target of 1.0848. The ultimate target will be 1.0884, where I will take profit.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0787, pressure on the euro will intensify. In this case, sellers could push the pair down to 1.0762. Only after a false breakout form will I consider buying the euro. I also plan to open long positions on a rebound from 1.0736 with a target of a 30–35 point intraday correction.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers made a comeback, but the pair didn't break out of the newly formed sideways channel—and it likely won't. Everyone is awaiting Trump's tariff announcements, so the dollar is more likely to be in demand than risk assets. If the U.S. PMI data triggers a negative market reaction, only a false breakout near the 1.0818 resistance level—which earlier acted as support—will provide a signal for short positions with a target of another move toward 1.0787. A breakout and consolidation below this range will be a suitable selling opportunity, targeting 1.0762. The ultimate target will be 1.0736, where I will take profit.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears fail to act around 1.0818—where the moving averages are—buyers could gain control and push the pair higher. In that case, I will delay short positions until a test of the next resistance at 1.0848, and only sell after a failed consolidation attempt. I plan to open short positions on a rebound from 1.0884, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

In the COT report (Commitments of Traders) for March 25, there was a slight increase in long positions and a rather significant decrease in shorts. There is no noticeable increase in euro buyers, but sellers continue to exit the market. Given the recent Eurozone inflation data and statements from ECB officials, the regulator's stance is likely to remain unchanged at the April meeting, which may temporarily support the euro. However, much will depend on the extent to which U.S. tariffs affect other countries. The more serious the threat of global economic slowdown, the greater the pressure will be on risk assets, including the euro.

The COT report shows that long non-commercial positions rose by 844 to 189,796, while short non-commercial positions dropped by 5,256 to 124,271. As a result, the gap between long and short positions increased by 3,855.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages: Trading is occurring around the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and may differ from the classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.0800 will serve as support.

Indicator descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Smooths out volatility and noise to define the current trend. Period – 50 (yellow on the chart); Period – 30 (green on the chart).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; Signal line SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: Total open long positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Total open short positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between long and short positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin caught in bull trap

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The bottom shows no strength, the top has no desire. Even the so-called "smart money" is not rushing to buy Bitcoin, citing a confluence of negative factors. Tepid trading activity, a tense macroeconomic backdrop, and a lack of upside momentum have created what the market calls a "bull trap". If big players are holding back, what can we expect from smaller market participants?

Crypto market volume trends

In the fourth quarter, Bitcoin lost around 10% of its value — not a terrible performance compared to broader crypto assets. Ethereum plunged 45%, and Coinbase shares fell 31%. This marked the worst performance since 2022, when the FTX collapse sent shockwaves through the entire digital asset industry.

Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum and other competitors largely due to increased attention from the White House. Donald Trump has announced the creation of a strategic reserve, and his family is launching mining ventures. They are clearly betting on a BTC/USD rally, but it is too early to call. In the futures market, hedging is ramping up to protect against a drop below the psychologically crucial $80,000 level. Meanwhile, the spread between spot and derivatives has dipped into negative territory, signaling a bearish market tone.

BTC futures vs spot market premium

Persistent geopolitical instability, looming risks of a US stagflation or recession, and the potential escalation of trade tariffs are casting a shadow over BTC/USD. Bitcoin remains mired in consolidation, and even if it manages to break out, there is no guarantee that it will be to the upside.

Much depends on how equity markets respond to "America's Liberation Day," as Trump has dubbed April 2. Two scenarios are in play: either the White House enacts universal 20% tariffs, or it goes with so-called reciprocal tariffs on selected imports. The former could shock markets and trigger a sell-off in riskier assets. The latter could extend the S&P 500's recent rally and throw Bitcoin bulls a much-needed lifeline.

In short, the fate of Bitcoin — and that of other assets — remains in the hands of Donald Trump. How aggressive will he be with protectionism? Will he offer exemptions, sparing some countries from the tariff blacklist? The answers are just days away. "Liberation Day" is approaching.

Technically, on the daily BTC/USD chart, bulls are trying to form and activate a combination of reversal patterns — Anti-Turtles and 1-2-3. A successful test of the $84,800 resistance level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to building long Bitcoin positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 1-3, 2025: sell below 1.0804 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.0791, undergoing a technical correction after reaching the top of the downtrend channel formed on March 14 and showing signs of exhaustion.

The euro is struggling to continue rising and is now trading below the 21SMA, which suggests that the technical correction could continue in the coming hours. Thus, EUR/USD could reach the 8/8 Murray at 1.0742. Once this important support is broken, the instrument could fall to the 200 EMA around 1.0711 and even touch the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.0650.

On the other hand, if the euro breaks and consolidates above 1.0815, the outlook could be positive, and the euro could return to its highs of 1.0940 and even reach the psychological level of 1.1000.

We expect the euro to continue its decline in the coming days, as technical levels suggest it will close the gap it left on February 28 at around 1.0365.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 1-3, 2025: sell below $3,144 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,131 within the uptrend channel that has formed since March 11, reaching high overbought levels. A strong technical correction is expected to occur in the coming hours toward the 21st SMA located at 3,091. The price could even reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,065.

The gold price reached a new all-time high at 3,149 during the European session. It is now undergoing a technical correction. The downward move is likely to continue during the American session until the price reaches the support at 3,115.

If gold attempts to break above its high, we should expect it to challenge the top of the uptrend channel around 3,144 once again. If gold fails to break this zone, it will be seen as a selling opportunity.

On the other hand, if the price consolidates below the 8/8 Murray level at 3,125, the outlook will be negative. So, we believe the instrument could reach 3,091 in the short term and eventually climb to the 7/8 Murray level at 3,046.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold below 3,144 with targets at 3,125, 3,091 and finally, 3,070. The eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, which supports our bearish strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.