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What Did Christine Lagarde Communicate to the Markets?

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Wednesday was notable not only for the ADP, ISM, and industrial production reports but also for another speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. It is worth recalling that the ECB intends to keep interest rates unchanged in the near future, as there is no need for either an increase or a decrease. Inflation in the European Union remains stable and close to the central bank's target. Lagarde has previously stated that the ECB is satisfied with the current rate of price growth in the Eurozone.

Concerns are raised primarily by the pace of economic growth, which remains relatively weak despite interest rates being lowered to a "neutral range." On average, the economy of the bloc has been growing at a rate of 0.6% to 1.2% per year in recent years. Clearly, such growth rates are not pleasing to European politicians, but they have little choice. They have to be content with these levels of GDP.

The European Union would have had a good opportunity to accelerate the growth of its economy if it were not for the trade war. Trump imposed tariffs on all imports from the EU, and the recently signed trade deal did not entirely eliminate the tariffs on EU exports to the U.S.; it only reduced them. Additionally, the EU has committed to investing hundreds of billions of dollars into American businesses and production. In other words, European money will be working for the American economy.

Returning to Lagarde's speech, she noted that the Eurozone's economic growth is supported by increased economic activity, labor market stability, and rising household spending. According to her, inflation indicators will remain stable and aligned with the central bank's target. The ECB stands ready to act swiftly and flexibly if necessary. If inflation starts to rise at any point, the central bank will be prepared to respond to this challenge by tightening its policy. Lagarde also confirmed the ECB's commitment to the inflation target of around 2%, but warned markets that small fluctuations up or down are possible. This means that the ECB is only prepared to intervene with its monetary tools in the case of the establishment of a long-term trend of rising consumer price indices. It does not intend to react to every fluctuation in inflation.

Based on all of the above, it can be concluded that the ECB will not change the parameters of monetary policy in the next six months. To establish a sustainable trend in inflation (either upward or downward), at least six months are required. Therefore, if interest rates are modified, it will not be before next summer.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward wave segment. The market has paused in recent months, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Fed remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current wave segment could extend up to the 25 level. Currently, it may continue to build the upward wave set. I expect that, given the current positions, construction of the third wave of this set will continue, which could be either an impulse or a corrective wave. I remain in long positions with targets in the range of 1.1670 – 1.1720.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD is complex but understandable. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive wave segment, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The descending corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in wave 4 appears to have completed. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels. In the short term, I anticipate the construction of wave 3 or wave C, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Both targets have already been achieved. The next targets may be around 1.3448 and 1.3552.

Fundamentals of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in market movements, it's better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market directions. Remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What Does the ADP Report Really Indicate?

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On Wednesday, the ADP report was released in the U.S., which I consider critically important for the American currency. At the beginning of the week, there was significant uncertainty about U.S. economic data. Even on Monday, market participants did not know exactly when the next Nonfarm Payrolls report, crucial to the Federal Reserve, would be released. There were also contradictions in the inflation report, which has the second-strongest impact on the FOMC. Initially, the inflation report was scheduled for December 10—the day of the last Fed meeting of the year. However, closer to mid-week, a new date appeared in the calendars: December 18. At the same time, the next Nonfarm Payrolls report was set for December 16. Given all of the above, it's easy to guess that the FOMC will again be operating in the dark next week.

Only the ADP report could alleviate the U.S. central bank's suffering. It's worth recalling that this report typically attracts little attention among market participants when regular, timely unemployment and Nonfarm Payrolls figures are released. However, it has become increasingly significant now, as there are no other sources of labor market information available. So, what numbers did the ADP report present?

For November, private employers cut their workforce by 32,000 jobs. This figure includes not only layoffs by employers but also employee resignations. The new immigration policy of Donald Trump is leading to mass deportations, cancellations of work visas, and any other documents permitting individuals to live and work in the U.S. Consequently, many are losing their jobs due to the problems associated with the White House's immigration policy.

At the same time, economists had anticipated an increase in the ADP figures by 5,000 to 10,000—far too little to prevent the unemployment rate from rising. Frankly, even an increase of 10,000 jobs is so minimal that it can be considered "negative." The hardest hit were small businesses, those with fewer than 50 employees, which lost 120,000 workers. In contrast, medium and large businesses showed weak but positive growth: up by 51,000 and 39,000, respectively. As we can see, small businesses suffer the most, unable to cope with both the new trade and immigration policies.

While the ADP report is less relevant than the Nonfarm Payrolls, it still allows for certain conclusions to be made. Specifically, the U.S. labor market continues to "cool" despite two rounds of FOMC monetary policy easing. Deterioration in the U.S. labor market threatens to reduce consumer demand, investments, and economic growth rates. Donald Trump, who promised economic revival and significant growth for America, cannot be satisfied with the current situation. This is why he has been calling for a reduction in the Fed's interest rate for almost a year, to levels that would stimulate economic growth. The current situation leaves only one option—to continue lowering the interest rate. However, no one has yet seen the inflation data for October and November. If the consumer price index is rising alongside a declining labor market, it is difficult to predict what the Fed will do.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward wave segment. The market has paused in recent months, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Fed remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current wave segment could extend up to the 25 level. Currently, it may continue to build the upward wave set. I expect that, given the current positions, construction of the third wave of this set will continue, which could be either an impulse or a corrective wave. I remain in long positions with targets in the range of 1.1670 – 1.1720.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD is complex but understandable. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive wave segment, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The descending corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in wave 4 appears to have completed. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels. In the short term, I anticipate the construction of wave 3 or wave C, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Both targets have already been achieved. The next targets may be around 1.3448 and 1.3552.

Fundamentals of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in market movements, it's better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market directions. Remember to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Geopolitics vs. Supply: What Shapes Oil Prices in December 2025

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The oil market has once again taken center stage: prices are rising, but this growth does not resemble the onset of a new commodities rally. Brent is consolidating around $63 per barrel, and WTI is near $59, with prices holding in a relatively narrow range. Meanwhile, the backdrop remains tense: on one hand, geopolitical risks are escalating, and concerns about supply disruptions are mounting; on the other hand, the fundamental picture indicates comfortable stock levels, high supply, and weak demand.

As a result, the market is living in a state of constant balance: short-term news adds a "risk premium" to the price, while structural factors immediately counteract it. Analysts are increasingly talking about a $60–70 Brent range as one where oil might get stuck for an extended period unless radical changes occur on either the supply or demand side.

Infrastructure Attacks and Supply Disruption Fears

The latest upward movement was triggered by attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and simultaneous stalls in peace negotiations. This immediately intensified discussions about supply disruption risks and prompted some players to close short positions and buy oil as a form of insurance.

A symbolic incident revolves around the Druzhba pipeline, through which Russian oil flows to Hungary and Slovakia; the recent attack was the fifth of its kind. The operator and the European side quickly stated that deliveries continue as normal, but the repeated incidents have heightened overall nervousness.

At the same time, consulting firms remind us of the deeper effect of the campaign against refining infrastructure. Market estimates indicate that Russian refining from September to November decreased to about 5 million barrels per day, hundreds of thousands of barrels below last year's figures. Gasoline production has suffered the most, with noticeable cuts in gasoil output. Therefore, risks are felt not only at the crude oil level but also throughout the petroleum product supply chains.

However, it is essential to note that the supply structure is not currently disrupted. There are no major disruptions, and the market understands this: prices are rising modestly, with movements measured in cents rather than dollars. This is a classic example of how geopolitics adds a small but tangible risk premium without fundamentally changing the market's foundation.

Structural Picture

If we look deeper beyond short-term news, it becomes clearer why oil prices are not responding as dramatically to geopolitics as they have in past years.

First, the market has yet to break out of its oversupply mode. Global production is increasing faster than demand, with some regions showing particularly aggressive output growth. OPEC+ has been balancing between supporting prices and protecting market share for several years, and currently, the vector is clearly shifting toward the latter: the cartel is not willing to significantly sacrifice volumes to maintain high prices at all costs.

Second, inventories remain at comfortable levels. Fresh data from the U.S. only confirms this. Instead of the expected decline, commercial crude oil stocks increased by approximately 500,000 barrels last week, despite analysts' predictions of a reduction. This occurred against the backdrop of increased refining activity: refineries are ramping up, yet supply on the market is so abundant that it continues to accumulate in storage.

The fact that reserves are rising even amid geopolitical tensions is a strong signal: there is no physical shortage. For prices, this means a ceiling—whenever Brent approaches the upper limit of the range, more supply enters the market, increasing the willingness to sell, thereby slowing the rise.

Additionally, the position of rating agencies complements the picture. Fitch has revised its oil price forecasts for 2025–2027 downward, directly reflecting expectations of oversupply and an increase in output outpacing demand. This is no longer a one-month story; it's about a cyclical scenario where oil will remain under pressure for years to come.

Persian Gulf: How Oil and Fed Rates Lift Regional Markets

Amidst this backdrop, the reaction of stock markets in Gulf countries is interesting. For them, oil is a key factor, and even a modest rise in prices, bolstered by expectations of future Fed rate cuts, has become a powerful positive signal.

The markets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar ended the session higher. Investors see dual support: on the one hand, higher, albeit moderate, oil prices improve the fiscal positions of these countries and the profitability of energy companies; on the other hand, easing U.S. monetary policy potentially reduces the cost of capital, making investments in emerging markets more attractive.

Regional indices are traditionally sensitive to the combination of "oil + rates." When oil rises and rate expectations fall, it creates an almost ideal formula for short-term capital inflows. In practice, this translates to growth in the energy and financial sectors, with increased interest in infrastructure and industrial issuers tied to government programs and exports.

However, it is crucial to understand that this growth is still based more on expectations than on facts: the Fed has not yet cut rates, and oil prices remain within a range. This suggests that Gulf markets are also vulnerable—both to potential disappointments regarding the Fed and to new signs of oil oversupply.

Balance of War/Politics Against Supply and Demand: Why Oil is Stuck in a Range

The market currently operates within a unique configuration: on one side—war, sanctions, infrastructure attacks, political statements, and stalled peace initiatives; on the other—"comfortable" inventories, anticipated oversupply, and a pragmatic OPEC+ strategy aimed at market share rather than extremely high prices.

In the past, a similar set of geopolitical news might have pushed oil to $80–100 per barrel. However, the current cycle is different. The global economy is slowing, the energy transition is gradually restraining demand growth, and the U.S. and other non-OPEC+ producers are increasing output, while markets are becoming more rational in assessing the risk premium.

War and politics add a few dollars per barrel to prices but do not overturn the market. Their influence is muffled by inventories, expectations of oversupply, and the understanding that any sustainably high price will instantly stimulate even greater production growth.

Scenarios for the Coming Months: Range, Volatility, and Central Banks' Role

Looking ahead a few months, the base scenario appears to be as follows: oil will continue to trade within a range of approximately $60–70 for Brent, periodically breaking to the upper or lower limits on news but returning to the range under the influence of fundamental factors.

Several factors support the maintenance of this scenario:

1. Expectations for the Fed: If a rate-cutting cycle indeed begins soon, it will support commodities overall and oil specifically through dollar weakening and renewed interest in risk assets. However, this does not negate the fact that the physical market still operates with a surplus.
2. OPEC+'s Position: Based on current signals, the cartel does not appear ready to implement aggressive production cuts. Its strategy aims to maintain price ranges at levels where exporting countries' budgets remain manageable, without ceding market share to competitors. This means that in the event of a substantial price drop, we could see more stringent measures, but until the market genuinely tests the lower boundary, there are no grounds for drastic actions.
3. Growing Role of Forecasts and Ratings: Downgrades to price forecasts by major agencies shape market participants' expectations and influence investment decisions; reduced confidence in high prices makes companies more cautious about capital investments and long-term projects. This could, over time, partially alleviate oversupply, but the impact will be delayed.

Conclusion: The Market Operates on "Insurance Plus Oversupply" Logic

The current situation in the oil market is an example of how short-term risks and long-term trends converge into a fragile equilibrium.

On the one hand, infrastructure attacks, pauses in peace negotiations, and overall geopolitical uncertainty create sustained demand for oil as a component of energy security and financial insurance.

On the other side, inventory data, oversupply forecasts, and the OPEC+ strategy aimed at maintaining market share set the price ceiling and kept oil in a range far from the extremes of previous years.

For investors and companies, this means that the bet on a sharp and sustained increase in oil prices now seems weaker than the bet on increased volatility within the corridor and careful risk management. Oil remains a critical global asset, but it is no longer the sole center of gravity for the world market—it is increasingly becoming one of the variables in a more complex equation where interest rates, global economic dynamics, and energy transformation play increasingly significant roles.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: A Starry Hour for the Vulnerable Pound

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On Wednesday, the pound surged by more than 150 pips against the dollar amid a general weakening of the greenback. Looking at the weekly GBP/USD chart, we can see that the pair is actively rising for the second week in a row, currently approaching the resistance level of 1.3370, which corresponds to the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly timeframe. In comparison, just a few weeks ago—in November—the pair was trading at the bottom of the 30 range under background pressure.

However, the fundamental picture for GBP/USD has changed. The growth driver this time is the greenback, which again fell from grace amid rising "dovish" expectations for the Federal Reserve's future actions. Still, the British currency also made a contribution after UK Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves presented the new autumn budget to Parliament.

The uncertainty surrounding the UK budget for next year had pressured the pound for nearly two months.

Earlier this fall, Reeves hinted that she would raise taxes in the upcoming autumn budget to cover a £22 billion deficit, admitting that the ruling Labour Party would break its election promise not to burden citizens with higher taxes. The situation seemed stymied, with rumors of Reeves's potential resignation adding extra pressure on the pound. Market sentiment leaned toward the belief that her successor would likely abandon the current fiscal framework, undermining confidence in the pound against the backdrop of increasing government debt and deteriorating financial conditions.

However, these concerns did not materialize. Reeves did not resign and presented a budget announcing a £26 billion annual tax increase to finance the deficit and create a reserve. Furthermore, the Chancellor implied that her department aims to maintain discipline in borrowing.

As a result, GBP/USD traders effectively acknowledged that concerns regarding the autumn budget were exaggerated. Consequently, market participants shifted their focus to the dynamics of the U.S. currency, which has weakened for the second consecutive week.

Unlike the EUR/USD pair, where the European Central Bank supports the euro, the Bank of England is not on the side of the British currency. Representatives of the BoE have continued to use dovish rhetoric, and most analysts are confident the BoE will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at its December meeting, which takes place in exactly two weeks. Macroeconomic reports published over the past few weeks reinforce the likelihood of a dovish scenario unfolding.

According to the latest data, overall inflation in the UK has slowed to 3.4%, the lowest level since May of this year. Core CPI also decreased to 3.4%. The Retail Price Index (RPI) slowed to 4.3%, marking a five-month low. The purchasing price index, which relies on commodity price dynamics, also fell into the red zone.

The UK labor market has also disappointed. Specifically, the unemployment rate rose to 5.0%, its highest level since January 2021. The number of jobless claims increased by 29,000 in October, marking the worst result since July 2024. The average wage level (including bonuses) increased by 4.8%, while the forecast was set at 4.9%. Excluding bonuses, the wage figure slowed to 4.6%, the lowest since June 2022 (the indicator has been declining since March of this year).

Finally, the UK's third-quarter GDP growth data was disappointing. GDP volume decreased by 0.1% month-on-month—the first time since May of this year that the indicator fell below zero. On a quarterly basis, weak growth was recorded at only 0.1%.

The PMI index for the construction sector, released on Thursday, further complements the fundamental picture, dropping to 39.4, the lowest level since May 2020.

All of this suggests that the BoE will likely cut the interest rate by 25 basis points in two weeks. This fundamental factor will come to the forefront when the market reacts to the anticipated 25-point rate cut by the Fed. This will occur next week during the Fed's meeting. If Jerome Powell does not announce further steps to lower rates at the December meeting, buyers of GBP/USD will find themselves in a difficult position: the dollar may undergo a correction, and the pound may not be able to push the pair up on its own.

However, currently, market participants are trading on the general weakening of the greenback, so long positions in the pair remain relevant, at least in the short term. There are three price targets on the horizon: 1.3370 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe), 1.3390 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the H4 timeframe), and 1.3430 (the upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the D1 timeframe).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Euro Received a Warning Signal

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When the economy lacks arguments to hold back the bullish momentum of EUR/USD, politics steps in. The split within the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has dealt a blow to the euro. About 18 party representatives do not support the pension project of the CDU and the Social Democrats. To pass it in the Bundestag, a majority is needed, and they are short by six votes. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's position has weakened, unsettling the main currency pair.

Politics and geopolitics have long impeded EUR/USD's progress. France has changed prime ministers as often as changing gloves, the armed conflict in Ukraine has lasted almost four years, and now Germany faces its own challenges. While I do not think a resolution is impossible, the mere emergence of this issue highlights the euro's Achilles' heel. Their presence prompts Reuters experts to set overly modest forecasts.

Dynamics of EUR/USD and Reuters Experts' Forecasts

The consensus estimate from specialists surveyed by the popular publication suggests that in a month, EUR/USD will rise to 1.17, to 1.19 in three months, and to 1.20 in a year. Notably, if in November only 6% of respondents supported the idea of a short-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar, in December this figure rose to 30%. The main reason cited is Jerome Powell's "hawkish" rhetoric following the recent rate cut at the FOMC's 2025 meeting.

It is well-known that the composition of the Open Market Committee is deeply divided. The Federal Reserve Chairman needs to find a compromise between the "hawks" and the "doves." One option is to ease monetary policy while signaling that borrowing costs will be held steady for some time. A pause in the monetary expansion cycle will benefit the U.S. dollar.

However, it should be noted that the greenback's problems have not disappeared. Since the beginning of 2025, the USD index has declined by approximately 9% and is poised for its worst performance since 2017 amid tariff risks, a cooling U.S. labor market, financial issues, and doubts about the Fed's independence. While investments in artificial intelligence technology have helped mitigate the negative impact of tariffs on imports, the remaining challenges remain. According to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, companies plan to cut 71,300 jobs in November.

Forecasts for Major Global Currencies

Interestingly, Reuters experts see the Japanese yen as a favorite for 2026, along with the Australian and New Zealand dollars. In their opinion, the main underperformers among the G10 currencies are the Swiss franc, the greenback, and the British pound.

Technically, on the daily chart, EUR/USD is undergoing a retest of the 1.1675 resistance level. This is an important pivot level that has resisted the "bulls" during the previous two attempts. A breakout would allow for an increase in long positions, while a rejection would heighten consolidation risks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The British pound is showing gains against the U.S. dollar during the North American session and has moved into a consolidation phase, despite U.S. labor market data indicating stability, while expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut remain high. As markets digest the positive U.S. employment figures and maintain expectations of a December Fed rate cut, the British pound is holding firm.

Recent U.S. economic data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits came in below experts' forecasts for the week ending November 29. Initial jobless claims totaled 191,000, below the forecast of 220,000 and even below last week's upwardly revised figure of 218,000 (from 216,000). For the same week, continuing claims reached 1.939 million, slightly below the previous 1.943 million reading.

Meanwhile, according to the Challenger Job Cuts report, companies announced 71,321 job cuts in November — 24% higher than the same period last year, but 53% lower than in October. All this strengthens market participants' conviction that the Fed will likely cut rates at its December 9–10 meeting, with probability now assessed at more than 85%, following Wednesday's weak employment change data.

The currency pair stabilized after discussions on the Autumn Budget. Some analysts, quoted by Reuters, believe the proposed measures are unlikely to trigger a sharp rise in inflation, which in turn could allow the Bank of England to resume its monetary easing cycle. The market is also pricing in roughly a 90% probability of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its meeting later this month.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has surpassed the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3320 but has so far failed to secure a position above the 100-day SMA to open the way toward testing the round 1.3400 level. If this level is breached, the pound may continue rising toward resistance at 1.3425 and 1.3450, on the way to the psychological 1.3500 level. But a drop below the 200-day SMA around 1.3320 will expose the round 1.3300 level. After a breakdown, the next support will be the 50-day SMA at 1.3266 and the 1.3250 level.

Below is a table showing the percentage change of the British pound against major currencies for the current week. The British pound showed the greatest strength against the U.S. dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on December 4, 2025

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The wave structure on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has shifted but remains quite understandable overall. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex and extended since July 1. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very unconventional form. Within this wave we observe exclusively corrective patterns, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend all the way up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e series appears complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new upward wave sequence. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now forming wave 3 or c. I expect that within this wave the instrument will rise at least to 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. I also do not rule out a scenario in which the upward wave sequence takes on a five-wave structure.

The EUR/USD exchange rate barely changed on Thursday but maintained a bullish mood. Let me remind you that this week saw at least four important economic indicators released for the U.S. and the Eurozone. In Europe, November inflation came out slightly above market expectations. However, the 2.2% annual reading places no pressure on the ECB's monetary policy stance. More important reports came from the U.S., including ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs. Manufacturing came in below expectations, while services came in above them—overall a neutral outcome.

But the ADP report cannot be called "neutral" under any circumstances. Despite minimal market expectations (only +5–10 thousand new jobs), even those were not met. The U.S. labor market lost 32,000 jobs. While this figure may not be entirely precise—ADP does not account for some sectors—the private sector did lose that number of employees. Moreover, this reflects the sum of hiring, firing, and layoffs. In other words, businesses may have been actively hiring but experienced even more layoffs. Businesses may not have implemented targeted reductions, but workers could have quit on their own.

This report indicates that the labor market continues to cool, and the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates next week for the third time in a row, without waiting for the release of Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Demand for the currency is falling this week, which fully aligns with the current wave picture and my expectations. However, I note that the nature of the current rise is clearly not impulsive. Therefore, what we are seeing now is the formation of another corrective structure.

General conclusions

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. Over the last few months, the market has taken a pause, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar in the future. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. For now, the upward wave sequence may continue to form. I expect that from current levels, the formation of the third wave of this sequence will continue, which may be either wave c or wave 3. At the moment, I remain in long positions, with targets in the 1.1670–1.1720 level.

On the smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not the most standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this can happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than trying to label every single wave. Right now, the bullish structure raises no doubts.

Key principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction does not exist and never will. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The recent unsuccessful attempt to find support above the $4,250 level and the subsequent decline favor the bears. However, positive technical oscillators on the daily chart indicate that any downturn will find strong support near the weekly low set on Tuesday around $4,160. But further selling below this level will push prices toward the round level of $4,100 on the way to $4,075. This level is close to the 50-day SMA, which may become a base in the near future.

On the other hand, since gold has already surpassed the round $4,200 level today, resistance at $4,250 may still serve as a strong barrier before $4,270, above which the precious metal will attempt to reclaim the round $4,300 level. A sustained break above this last mark will be a key factor for the growth of XAU/USD, opening the path to further upward movement in the short term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, Thursday, the pair attracted buyer interest as it attempted to recover yesterday's losses; however, the attempt was unsuccessful, and the pair remained at the same price level. Current prices show no confidence in growth, hovering just above the 200-day SMA. The U.S. dollar index made attempts to recover today, which provided important support for USD/CAD.Nonetheless, significant dollar strengthening should not be expected, as most market participants anticipate that the Federal Reserve will cut rates next week in December. These expectations were reinforced by the weak ADP employment report, which showed that private-sector employers unexpectedly cut 32,000 jobs in November, despite today's labor data being better than previous figures.

The data indicate a weakening U.S. labor market and add to signs of slowing growth in the world's largest economy, increasing the likelihood of continued Fed easing. This sharply contrasts with the hawkish statements from the Bank of Canada, which pointed to a possible end to the rate-cutting cycle. Also supporting the Canadian dollar is the rise in oil prices, which benefits the commodity-linked Canadian currency and restrains further strengthening of USD/CAD.

Now the key indicators for trading the pair are the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, to be published on Friday, and the Canadian unemployment rate, also set for release on Friday during the North American session.

From a technical perspective, last week's price drop below the 100- and 200-period SMAs on the 4-hour chart favors the bears. Oscillators on both the 4-hour and daily charts are negative. However, it is important to note that on the daily chart the pair has not fallen below the very important 200-day SMA. This indicates that the pair is not yet ready for a major long-term decline.

Price resistance was met at 1.3983, just below the psychological 1.4000 level. Support for the pair is expected at the 200-day SMA.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near its monthly high, preparing for further growth, and the potential for a correction remains limited against a favorable fundamental backdrop. Today, the U.S. dollar attempted a modest recovery from levels last seen at the end of October, but unsuccessfully. This attempted rebound became the key factor restraining the rise of EUR/USD.

According to the latest U.S. macroeconomic data, the economy is gradually cooling, and combined with signs of a further slowdown in the U.S. labor market in November, this has strengthened expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting scheduled for next week. Meanwhile, expectations of a more moderate pace of rate cuts in the U.S. continue to support optimism in risk assets and may put pressure on the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, the euro continues to receive support due to the increasingly widespread recognition that the European Central Bank has completed its rate-cutting cycle. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that inflation is likely to remain close to the 2% target in the coming months, confirming the likelihood of maintaining the current monetary policy stance.

Even from a technical standpoint, yesterday's break above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was viewed as a key bullish signal for EUR/USD. This suggests that prices continue to move north along the path of least resistance, and any meaningful pullbacks may serve as good buying opportunities. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, supporting the upbeat outlook. The pair's nearest target is the psychological level of 1.1700. A pullback may be limited by the 100-day SMA located around 1.1645.

Below is a table showing the percentage change of the U.S. dollar relative to major currencies today. The dollar was strongest against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 4th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.12 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Today's speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda supported buyers of the yen. Ueda noted that at the moment, the regulator can only estimate the neutral interest rate approximately, which indicates the difficulty of future decision-making. However, this does not cancel market expectations for a rate hike as early as next week.

Later today, attention will shift to the publication of weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, as well as layoff data from Challenger. In addition, a speech by FOMC member Michelle Bowman is scheduled. Traditionally, the number of new jobless claims serves as an early indicator of potential changes in the labor market. An increase in this figure may indicate a worsening labor market and a possible slowdown in economic development, which would put additional pressure on the dollar against the yen.

Challenger layoff data also provide important insights, allowing the assessment of employer sentiment and the potential trajectory of the labor market in the near future. However, only very strong U.S. labor market statistics will be able to stop further declines in the USD/JPY pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point around 155.01 is reached (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 155.67 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.67, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point downward move). You can count on a rise in the pair only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.69 level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 155.01 and 155.67 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 154.69 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 154.12, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point upward move). Pressure on the pair will return only in the case of very weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 155.01 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 154.69 and 154.12 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 4th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3344 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by only 10 points.

A sharp decline in the UK construction sector, reflected in the drop of the index to 39.4, has negatively affected the pound sterling. The decrease in the construction PMI indicates a slowdown in economic growth, which impacts future performance. A reduction in construction volumes may trigger decreased demand for resources, slower wage growth, and, consequently, worsening consumer sentiment. This situation will inevitably influence the Bank of England's strategy as well, as it continues to maintain high interest rates, which also negatively affect activity in the construction sector.

Next, market participants will carefully analyze U.S. economic indicators, as they can clarify the current state of employment and, consequently, the possible decisions of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. A decrease in initial jobless claims and a reduction in layoffs would signal continued labor market resilience and help offset yesterday's negative sentiment after the ADP report. However, this is unlikely to significantly influence the Fed's decision.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3353 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.3380 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3380, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction). A strong rise in the pound today can only be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3337 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.3353 and 1.3380 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3337 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3309, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pound is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3353 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3337 and 1.3309 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 4th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1667 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Eurozone retail sales data matched economists' forecasts, showing zero growth in October. A more detailed analysis revealed that a decline in non-food and motor fuel sales was offset by increased demand for food, beverages, and tobacco products. This indicates a shift in consumer preferences toward essential goods, likely due to concerns about rising inflation.

Zero growth demonstrates a certain instability in consumer demand. Even under conditions of normal inflation and falling interest rates, consumer spending did not increase significantly, raising certain questions. This fully explains why the euro did not react to the published data.

Next, traders will closely watch U.S. labor market data, as it may shed light on the current condition of the market and, consequently, on potential further steps by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Persistently high jobless claims and an increase in job cuts may indicate that the labor market remains weak, which could push the Fed toward cutting interest rates. Michelle Bowman's speech will also be of interest, as it may shed light on the ongoing discussions within the FOMC regarding inflation and economic growth. However, since the Fed meeting is less than a week away, it is unlikely that Bowman will comment on anything significant.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the 1.1680 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1701. At 1.1701, I plan to exit the market and also open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. You can count on strong euro growth after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1663 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to 1.1680 and 1.1701 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1663 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1640, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return today if the statistics are positive. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1680 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to 1.1663 and 1.1640 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – It is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 4-7, 2025: sell below $4,230 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,192 under downward pressure after reaching a high of $4,240. Gold could rebound above $4,180 and reach the top of the trend channel around $4,230.

According to the H4 chart, we can see that gold is within a downtrend channel formed since November 26. Thus, if a pullback towards $4,230 (top of the downtrend channel) or towards the 7/8 Murray located at $4,215 occurs, it will be seen as an opportunity to resume selling.

Gold is likely to reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around $4,103 in the coming days and could even reach the 200 EMA around $4,090. Finally, XAU/USD is expected to reach 6/8 Murray around $4,062.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal while the instrument is trading below the downtrend channel, any spike or technical rebound will be seen as a signal to resume short positions.

The medium-term outlook remains bearish, and gold is expected to reach the psychological level of $4,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum (ETH/USD) for December 4-7, 2025: sell below $3,280 (200 EMA - 2/8 Murray)

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ETH/USD is trading around $3,165 after a strong technical rebound from $2,700, gaining more than 21%.

Ether encountered strong resistance around the 200 EMA and around the top of the uptrend channel formed since November 20. We could expect a technical correction in the coming hours, and ETH could reach the psychological level of $3,000.

On the contrary, if Ether consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the top of the uptrend channel around $3,300, we could expect a new bullish sequence, and the instrument could reach 4/8 Murray around $3,750 in the coming days.

The Eagle indicator is showing the overbought market. Therefore, the odds are that the market will undergo a technical correction in the coming days, and ETH could reach the $2,800 level, which coincides with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

The outlook for Ethereum remains negative, and it is expected to reach the 0/8 Murray level around $2,500 in the medium term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 4-7, 2025: sell below $93,750 (200 EMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $92,737, consolidating around 3/8 Murray over the last few hours and showing signs of exhaustion.

Bitcoin is trading within an uptrend channel formed since November 20 and has been respecting support and resistance points. So, if the price consolidates below the 200 EMA in the coming days, BTC could make a technical correction, and we expect it to reach 2/8 Murray at $87,500.

If the Bitcoin price consolidates above $95,000 around the 200 EMA, we could expect a recovery towards the psychological level of $100,000, where Murray's 4/8 is located.

Given that Bitcoin is showing overbought levels, we expect the price to fall below $93,750 in the coming hours, which will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with targets at $87,500 and around the bottom of the uptrend channel at $85,550.

After a technical correction, the time will right to open long positions as long as the price remains within the uptrend channel. A good point to resume buying could be around $87,500 or $85,500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 4-7, 2025: sell below 1.1680 (GAP - 3/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1667 above 3/8 Murray and within the uptrend channel formed since November 19.

The euro could undergo a technical correction in the coming hours, and EUR/USD could reach 3/8 Murray. It is expected to reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1.1620 if the bearish force prevails.

Given that the euro is showing overbought conditions, we expect a technical correction in the coming hours. If the instrument is below the top of the uptrend channel and below 1.1670, this could be seen as an opportunity to sell with a target at 1.1620.

The outlook remains positive for the euro if the price consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 2/8 Murray around 1.1600 in the coming days. Then, any technical pullback or rebound could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions.

Remember that in October, EUR/USD left a gap around 1.1740. So, if the price continues to rise above 1.1600, it could reach this level in the coming days.

A decisive break below 1.1596 and below the 200 EMA could change the outlook for the euro, and we could expect it to reach 0/8 Murray around 1.1475.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for December 4

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq rise on expectations of Fed rate cut

Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.30%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.86%. On Thursday, Japanese assets were in focus in the Asian markets. The country's indices led after data from the US increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, and the sale of 30-year government bonds saw the highest demand since 2019.

In the currency market, the US dollar remained stable after falling by 0.4% during the previous session when US Treasury yields rose, lowering the yield on two-year bonds to approximately 3.48%. The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as sentiment remained weak amid delays in finalizing a trade agreement with the United States. Follow the link for more details.

US equity market loses leaders

Inflation is slowing, interest rates are decreasing, and corporate profits are rising. What could be better for the S&P 500? The US stock market aims to restore its upward trend. However, its distinguishing feature at the start of winter is the absence of leaders. The diversification of investment portfolios and a move away from tech stocks have become the hallmark of recent weeks.

The increase in business activity in the services sector to a 9-month high was perceived by investors as a sign of optimism due to the end of the shutdown, which, by the way, could begin again at the end of January. On the other hand, the ADP reported a reduction of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in November. The data indicated a labor market cooling and brought the Fed closer to an interest rate cut in December. Follow the link for more details.

US stock indices see moderate gains amid weak ADP employment data

On Wednesday, US stock indices strengthened amid weak ADP employment data, which fueled expectations of imminent policy easing by the Fed. An unexpected reduction in jobs in the private sector again showed signs of a weakening labor market and bolstered forecasts for a Fed rate cut as early as next week. The Dow Jones climbed by 0.9%, adding over 400 points, the S&P 500 increased by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin attempted to recover after a sharp decline, recently dropping below $83,000. On Wednesday, BTC rose to a two-week high, exceeding $93,000, but part of the gain was later lost. Caution in the tech sector intensified after Microsoft's stock fell by 2.5% amid reports of reduced quotas for AI solution sales. Follow the link for more details.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading tips for crypto market on December 4 (North American session)

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Bitcoin is making every effort to break above the $94,000 level, but each time it encounters some difficulties during its rise. However, considering that each dip is actively bought up, there are chances for further development of a bull market. Ethereum is also trading steadily above $3,100, which allows for further growth projections.

Meanwhile, according to data from Cryptoquant, most on-chain indicators for BTC are bearish. The company believes that without new positive macroeconomic indicators, a gradual entry of the market into a bear cycle can be expected. A similar viewpoint is shared by Glassnode, noting a decline in wallet activity and a decrease in transaction volume on the Bitcoin network. This indicates a waning interest in cryptocurrency from both retail and institutional investors. The drop in trading volumes on popular crypto exchanges also points to reduced market liquidity and increased volatility, which in turn discourages potentially new participants.

Nonetheless, given the high interest in the market, it is unlikely that even bear phases will be as prolonged and deep as they were in the past. They can be seen as an opportunity to enter the market at more attractive prices, but with the condition that you keep an eye on risks and do not over-leverage.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will proceed by relying on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of continued growth in the bull market over the medium term, which is still very much alive.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today when it reaches an entry point around $93,600 with a target rise to $95,200. Near $95,200, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately during a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone. Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower border at $92,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout downward toward the levels of $93,600 and $95,200.

Sell scenario Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today as soon as it reaches an entry point around $92,900 with a target drop to $91,700. Near $91,700, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately during a dip. Before selling on a breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone. Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper border at $93,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout downward toward the levels of $92,900 and $91,700.

Ethereum

Buy scenario Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,210 with a target rise to $3,293. Near $3,293, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately during a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone. Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower border at $3,165 if there is no market reaction to its breakout downward toward the levels of $3,210 and $3,293.

Sell scenario Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,165 with a target drop to $3,095. Near $3,095, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately during a dip. Before selling on a breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the negative zone. Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper border at $3,210 if there is no market reaction to its breakout downward toward the levels of $3,165 and $3,095.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Everything happens for a reason

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Meanwhile, as Bitcoin tries to determine its next direction, American Bitcoin, a Bitcoin mining company founded by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., reported that it has recently purchased 363 BTC.

Coincidence or not, these purchases occurred during the market crash in November. According to the company's announcement, the total volume of Bitcoin assets for American Bitcoin grew to 4,367 BTC as of December 2. In the previous report on November 7, the company stated it had 4,004 BTC. This indicates that American Bitcoin was acquiring Bitcoin during the November downturn when the price dropped to nearly $82,000 from a peak of $126,000 a month earlier.

"Strategic accumulation continues," the company stated in its announcement. Thus, American Bitcoin has demonstrated confidence in the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency by taking advantage of the market's temporary weakness to ramp up its holdings. This move can be viewed as a strategic investment in the future of digital assets, especially given the reputation and influence of Trump's family in the business world.

Acquiring Bitcoin during price declines is a common tactic among experienced investors seeking to maximize profits during subsequent market recoveries. American Bitcoin appears to be sticking to this strategy by capitalizing on the opportunity to buy more Bitcoin at low prices.

Meanwhile, the company's stock plummeted 38% after a private placement occurred on Tuesday, ahead of a merger. After the stock closed at $2.19, it rose 9.13% on Wednesday, closing at $2.39. Co-founder Eric Trump stated that the volatility was expected but expressed confidence in the company's fundamentals.

American Bitcoin also reported strong results for the third quarter: revenue increased to $64.2 million from $11.6 million year-on-year, and net profit reached $3.5 million compared to a net loss of $0.6 million a year earlier.

Trading recommendations

In terms of the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $94,600 level, which opens a direct path to $97,300, and from there, it's just a step away to the $99,400 level. The furthest target will be the peak around $102,300, and overcoming this level will indicate attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers around the $92,000 mark. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $89,600, with the furthest target being the $87,200 area.

As for the technical picture for Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $3,283 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The furthest target will be the peak around $3,664, and overcoming this level will indicate strengthening bullish market sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers around the $3,126 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push ETH down to around $2,994, with the furthest target being the $2,924 area.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 04/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 4, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement after rebounding from the support level of 1.1594–1.1607 and by the end of the day closed above the 1.1645–1.1656 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% retracement level at 1.1718. A consolidation of the pair below the 1.1645–1.1656 level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a return of the quotes to the 1.1594–1.1607 level.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the most recent upward wave broke the previous peak. Therefore, the trend has now officially changed to "bullish." One can hardly call it a strong trend, but in recent months the bulls have shown only one thing—their weakness. Fed monetary easing should give them additional strength, as the ECB does not intend to cut interest rates anytime soon.

On Wednesday, the bears' hope rested on just one report—ADP. This report is not the most accurate or comprehensive indicator of the U.S. labor market, but there were no others available at the time. Apart from the ADP report, the ISM services PMI and industrial production were also released, but traders were waiting specifically for ADP, as the FOMC will make its monetary policy decision next week based on this data. There were faint hopes that the labor market would show at least slight improvement. Traders expected job growth of at least 10–15 thousand. However, reality shattered all hopes and expectations. The labor market lost another 32,000 jobs, and the revision of last month's figure to +47,000 played no role. The Fed now has no choice but another 0.25% rate cut. Previously, traders doubted this decision (given the complete lack of necessary data), but now they are 100% certain.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this level will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. Consolidation above the 1.1649–1.1680 resistance level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 0.0% retracement level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicator today. The bullish trend has every chance to recover.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders closed 12,897 long positions and 2,857 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but the data currently being released is outdated—October figures. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 243,000, with 135,000 short positions.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause many long-term structural problems for the U.S. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, many key economic indicators continue to decline, and the dollar is losing its status as the "world's reserve currency."

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – Retail Sales (10:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

On December 4, the economic calendar includes two entries, neither of which can be considered important. The influence of the informational background on market sentiment on Thursday will be weak.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions today are possible if the pair closes below the 1,1645–1,1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594–1.1607. Long positions could be opened upon a rebound from the 1.1594–1.1607 level with a target of 1.1645–1.1656. This target has been reached. Today, long positions may be kept open with a target of 1.1718.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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GBP/USD Forecast on December 4, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 38.2% retracement level at 1.3186, consolidated above 1.3240 and 1.3294, and reached the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. A rebound of the quotes from this zone would allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a slight decline of the pair toward 1.3294. Consolidation above the 1.3352–1.3362 level will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next level of 1.3425.

The wave situation has transformed into a "bullish" one. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, and the new upward wave easily broke the previous peak. Thus, the trend has now turned bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears worked through it completely, and the U.S. news background also leaves much to be desired.

The information backdrop for both the pound and the dollar was quite interesting on Wednesday and supported the bulls. The main drivers of the pair's growth were the UK services PMI report and the U.S. ADP labor market report. The UK services PMI came out better than expected, strengthening traders' confidence in the resilience of the British economy. The ADP report, on the other hand, triggered a negative reaction because it increased the likelihood of a December Fed rate cut. The private sector in the U.S. lost approximately 32,000 employees in November 2025. The layoffs mostly affected small businesses, but the report itself does not fully reflect what is happening in the U.S. labor market. The ADP report does not account for changes in government employment, the agricultural sector, or nonprofit organizations. The Nonfarm Payrolls report is a more complete and accurate indicator of the U.S. labor market. However, the ADP report alone is enough to expect FOMC monetary easing at the December meeting.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 1.3339 retracement level. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3339 will allow us to expect further growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" traders category became less bullish in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago—October 14. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 14,896, while the number of short positions decreased by 7,743. The current gap between long and short positions is roughly 79,000 versus 91,000. However, recall that this data reflects conditions as of mid-October.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand on the market, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, while the Bank of England may cut rates once more, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Construction PMI (09:30 UTC)
• United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

The economic calendar for December 4 contains two secondary entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be extremely weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions today may be considered upon a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 resistance level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3294. Long positions could previously be opened upon a rebound from the 1.3186–1.3214 zone on the hourly chart with targets of 1.3294 and 1.3352. Both targets have been reached. New long positions may be opened upon a close above 1.3352–1.3362 with a target of 1.3425.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Yen Maintains Its Course Toward Strengthening Against the Dollar

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The Japanese yen rose against the U.S. dollar yesterday following weak data related to the U.S. labor market, which only increased the likelihood of a widening divergence in monetary policy approaches between the U.S. and Japanese central banks.

Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered a speech in which he stated that the regulator can only broadly estimate where the so-called neutral interest rate might lie. The statement came amid growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates this month.

"As for the neutral interest rate, unfortunately, it remains a concept that at the moment can only be assessed within a fairly wide range," Ueda said in parliament on Thursday. "We do not know what it will be, but that will determine how much nominal interest rates ultimately rise and how appropriate that will be."

It is worth noting that the neutral rate is the level at which policy settings are considered neither restrictive nor stimulative. Ueda's description of this rate as difficult to define implies that the Bank of Japan has considerable room for economic growth before it raises rates to a level that may cease to be stimulative.

Despite Ueda's cautious tone, his remarks were interpreted as a hint that the Bank of Japan does not rule out raising rates in the near future. Recall that earlier this week, Ueda gave the clearest indication yet of a potential rate hike in line with the Bank of Japan's December 19 decision. "The central bank will weigh all the pros and cons of a rate increase and make appropriate decisions," he said at the time, after analyzing the economy, inflation, and financial markets domestically and abroad.

These comments sharply increased market expectations of an upcoming rate hike. Overnight swaps now point to an 80% or higher probability of a December hike, compared to about 58% at the end of last week.

Following Ueda's latest statements, the yen strengthened to 155.47 per dollar, although overall yen weakness persists, which may intensify inflationary pressures due to rising import costs. The bank's core inflation measure has remained at or above the 2% target for three and a half years. To ease the burden on households, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced an economic stimulus package last month. However, its impact on the underlying inflation trend remains unclear.

As for the current USD/JPY technical picture, buyers need to take control above the nearest resistance at 155.70. This will allow them to target 156.10, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 156.70 level. In the event of a decline, the bears will attempt to take control of 155.40. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push USD/JPY toward the 155.05 low with the prospect of reaching 154.70.

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The Dollar Was Saved by Growth in U.S. Services Sector Activity

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Yesterday, the U.S. dollar suffered significantly after a weak ADP employment report; however, the negative figures were partially offset by strong data on growth in U.S. services sector activity.

According to data from the Institute for Supply Management, the index rose by 0.2 points, reaching a nine-month high of 52.6. Recall that a reading above 50 indicates growth in most sectors of the economy.

This mixed picture in the market creates substantial uncertainty regarding the further direction of the U.S. currency. On the one hand, labor market weakness, reflected in an unexpected decline in employment, puts pressure on the dollar and heightens concerns about slowing economic growth. Investors begin pricing in expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy, which is traditionally considered a negative factor for the national currency.

On the other hand, the rise in activity in the services sector—which represents a significant portion of the U.S. economy—signals continued resilience.

Looking more closely at the indices, the picture is as follows: the ISM services and materials prices index showed its slowest growth in seven months. Despite still being at historically high levels, it points to some easing of inflationary pressure. The deliveries index rose by 3.3 points, reaching its highest reading in more than a year. This growth was likely driven by disruptions in air transportation due to the government shutdown and by customs-related tariff changes.

The ISM services business survey committee also reported that twelve industries experienced growth last month—primarily retail trade, entertainment and recreation, and hospitality and food services. Five industries, including construction, saw declines. "The continued growth of the business activity and new orders indices, as well as the highest backlog index reading since February, are positive signs of an emerging recovery in the services sector," the report noted.

Home sales continue to be constrained by mortgage rates. Most industry representatives describe the slowdown as a deliberate pause, while suppliers and workers foresee the possibility of margin reductions in the near future.

According to the same ISM data, inventories grew at their fastest pace in seven months. Nevertheless, inventory sentiment softened somewhat, indicating that fewer service providers consider their inventory levels too high.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about how to gain control above 1.1680. Only this will make it possible to target a test of 1.1705. From there, the price could climb to 1.1725, although doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the high of 1.1753. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying activity only around 1.1650. If no one steps in there, it would be better to wait for an update of the 1.1625 low or to consider opening long positions from 1.1590.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3360. Only this will allow them to target 1.3395, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3415 level. In the event of a decline, the bears will try to take control of 1.3320. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3290 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3270.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.