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EUR/USD Analysis on November 27, 2025

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The 4-hour wave pattern for EUR/USD has changed but still looks fairly clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which has taken an unconventional form. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not finished, and its targets extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a-b-c-d-e appears complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new upward wave sequence. We have already seen the assumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is currently forming wave 3 or c. I expected the second wave to end in the 38.2%–61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of wave 1, but the quotes dipped to 76.4%. Over the past few days, everything has been moving according to plan.

The EUR/USD rate slightly weakened on Thursday toward the beginning of the U.S. session, but in my view, this is simply a pullback. There was no significant news in either the EU or the U.S. during the first half of the day; only the German consumer confidence index was released, and it matched market expectations exactly. Therefore, this index could not have caused the decline of the euro — nor the decline of the British pound alongside it.

The end of November is turning out to be quite dull in terms of news, but I want to remind you that over the past two months the market has repeatedly ignored important reports. I still do not understand how the market managed to interpret the U.S. government "shutdown" as positive, for example. Analysts have also already forgotten that the U.S. government and federal agencies were essentially on leave for a month and a half. Everyone seems to have forgotten this — just as they have forgotten about the two rounds of Federal Reserve monetary easing and the third one that is on the horizon. In recent days, EUR/USD has been rising, but what we need is not just a rise, but a fully formed upward wave sequence.

In December, U.S. economic statistics for October and November will begin to appear, and this may be where the dollar runs into trouble. It is obvious that many economic indicators will decline due to the month-and-a-half shutdown. Most of the attention will go to Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, and these also have every chance of disappointing. I still expect a strong fall in the U.S. currency, and the wave structure continues to support this scenario.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. Over the past few months, the market has taken a pause, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that could lead to a decline in the U.S. currency in the future. The targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At the moment, the formation of an upward wave sequence may continue. I expect wave 3 of this sequence (or wave c) to continue developing from current levels, with targets near 1.1740. I remain in long positions with these targets in mind.

At a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard one, as the corrective waves are of different sizes. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this also happens. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear, understandable structures on charts rather than obsessively assigning labels to every wave. At the moment, the upward structure raises no doubts.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty about the market's direction never exists and never will. Do not forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on November 27, 2025

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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom illustration), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top illustration). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any major corrective wave, since it has a corrective rather than an impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe that the upward trend remains intact.

The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken on a five-wave form a-b-c-d-e and may be complete. If this is indeed the case, then the instrument is currently in the process of forming a new upward wave sequence.

Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended at any moment. Even the presumed wave 4, which has been forming for almost 5 months, can take on a five-wave pattern, and in that case we would observe a correction for several more months. However, at this time the market has grounds for buying. If this assumption is correct, then the first two waves of the new wave sequence have already been formed, and we are now observing the formation of wave 3 or c.

The GBP/USD rate declined by 10 basis points on Thursday, which even sounds amusing. The pullback occurred after a rather strong rise yesterday, so its reasons are most likely technical. The current wave broke above the peak of the previous wave, so the formation of an upward wave sequence is confirmed. Accordingly, just as before, I expect the British currency to rise.

Yesterday, the full UK budget for 2026 was released, and it was well received by the market. Market participants appreciated the British government's intention to reduce expenses, increase revenue, and avoid excessive borrowing. Unfortunately, the increase in revenue will be achieved through a substantial rise in various taxes (and we will discuss this in a separate review). Recall that during the election campaign, Labour promised not to raise taxes — but in practice, it turned out they promised not to raise only income tax. All other taxes, however, were fair game. Yesterday it became known that the income tax rate will remain unchanged, but Britons will still pay more of this tax because prices and wages in the UK are rising while tax thresholds remain unchanged.

In practice, it works like this: for example, consider the income threshold of £50,000 per year. Below that, the tax rate is 20%; above it, 30%. Since wages and inflation in the UK are rising, British taxpayers are effectively earning more each year — but in real terms, they are not (due to inflation). Therefore, a certain portion of citizens will move from the first tax bracket to the second because of wage increases and will thus pay more tax. Checkmate from Rachel Reeves.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern of GBP/USD has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in c of 4 appears fully completed. If this is truly the case, I expect the main upward trend segment to resume with initial targets around the 1.38 and 1.40 levels. In the short term, we may expect the formation of wave 3 or c with targets near 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the Fibonacci levels of 76.4% and 61.8%.

The higher-degree wave pattern looks nearly perfect, even though wave 4 went beyond the peak of wave 1. However, let me remind you that perfect wave patterns exist only in textbooks. In practice, everything is much more complicated. At the moment, I see no grounds to consider alternative scenarios to the bullish trend segment.

The Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. Absolute certainty about the direction of movement never exists and never will. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 27th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test of 156.20 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. The second test of 156.20 happened when the MACD was in the overbought area, which triggered the implementation of Scenario No. 2 for selling. However, the trade resulted in losses.

In the second half of the day, there are no important fundamental statistics from the US, so active trading in the USD/JPY pair is unlikely. Additionally, US markets will be closed due to Thanksgiving. This combination of factors indicates a likely decline in liquidity and reduced volatility in this currency pair. The lack of stimulating economic data from the United States deprives traders of catalysts for active trading. The closure of US exchanges for Thanksgiving further suppresses trading activity. This is especially relevant for USD/JPY, given that the US dollar is one of its components. Therefore, investors and traders should expect a calm session with limited movement in the USD/JPY pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 156.45 (the green line on the chart), targeting an increase to the level of 156.77 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.77, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points downward from the level). One can expect growth of the pair as part of the continued bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 156.05 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 156.45 and 156.77 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the 156.05 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.59 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points upward from the level). Continued pressure on the pair is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 156.45 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.05 and 155.59 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit may be set or profit may be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit may be set or profit may be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders need to make market entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 27th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test of 1.3246 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.

The pound fell noticeably in the absence of UK statistics, partially offsetting yesterday's rise. This resembles the classic "swing" movement in currency markets, where short-term impulses are followed by corrective movements, reflecting the ongoing struggle between buyers and sellers. Yesterday's optimism was likely triggered by details of the budget, which investors viewed as positive for economic growth or at least as mitigating negative effects. However, without fresh data and amid overall uncertainty, the euphoria quickly faded.

In the second half of the day, the GBP/USD pair is likely to move within a narrow range limited by the nearest support and resistance levels. Markets will be closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US, which implies calm trading for GBP/USD. I recommend exercising patience and caution, avoiding large risks, and considering alternative strategies or instruments if traders are seeking more active trading opportunities.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3238 (the green line on the chart), targeting an increase to the level of 1.3267 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3267, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points downward from the level). Significant pound growth is unlikely today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3212 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3238 and 1.3267 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3212 level is updated (the red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3192 level, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points upward from the level). Continued pressure on the pound is unlikely today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3238 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3212 and 1.3192 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit may be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit may be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders need to make market entry decisions very carefully. Before important fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 27th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The price test of 1.1595 occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 18 points.

The statistical data published in the morning on Germany and credit dynamics in the eurozone did not help restore demand for the euro. From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair is showing a correction while maintaining chances for further growth. However, today we are unlikely to see major market movements. Today is a holiday in the United States due to Thanksgiving, so active trading in the second half of the day is not expected. It is better to rely on trading within the channel, using major support and resistance levels. Only unexpected political statements may disrupt the market balance. But, as a rule, on such days any sharp market fluctuation is quickly reversed in the opposite direction.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1599 (the green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 1.1628. At 1.1628, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. It is unlikely that the euro will show strong growth today. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1575 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1599 and 1.1628 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1575 (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1553 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points from the level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1599 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1575 and 1.1553 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be placed or profit may be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 27-30, 2025: sell below 1.16.05 (200 EMA - 7/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1596, testing the resistance of 7/8 Murray and consolidating above the 200 EMA, which could mean a further upward movement in the coming days.

If the euro consolidates above 1.1605 in the coming hours, we can expect a continuation of the upward movement, which could push the price up to 8/8 Murray around 1.1718.

The outlook remains bullish for the euro in the coming hours, and EUR/USD could continue its rise. So, as long as the price remains above the 21 SMA located at 1.1562, any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to continue buying.

Conversely, if the euro falls below 1.1560, we could expect a bearish acceleration, and EUR/USD could reach the bottom of the uptrend channel formed since early November around 1.1507.

The euro has been in a consolidation phase for several weeks, so it is expected to reach a high of 1.1740 in the coming days or fall and reach the 6/8 Murray support around 1.1470. We must keep an eye on the key level of 1.1560, below which the outlook could change, and above which it could continue its rise.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 27-30, 2025: sell below $92,700 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,927 after a bullish rally following its low of $80,000. Bitcoin is now overbought, as can be seen on the H4 chart. We could expect Bitcoin to fall below $92,500 in the coming hours, then it could reach the support at the bottom of the uptrend channel around $88,287.

The outlook remains bearish for Bitcoin. However, if the crypto maintains the bullish momentum, it could encounter strong resistance if it reaches the 3/8 Murray around $93,750.

The secondary uptrend that began on November 20 could give Bitcoin a new bullish momentum if it consolidates around $88,000 and could even offer good support at 2/8 Murray around $87,500.

Given that Bitcoin is showing signs of exhaustion, we may look for opportunities to sell below $92,000 with a target at $88,000.

If a pullback occurs towards the strong resistance at $93,750, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell in the coming days, with a target at $87,500.

The Eagle indicator is reaching overbought levels, so we must be careful when planning long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for November 27-30, 2025: sell below $4,170 (21 SMA - 61.8% Fibonacci)

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Gold is trading around 4,150, around 61.8% of Fibonacci, oscillating between 4,240 (maximum) and 3,996 (minimum).

Gold could resume its bearish cycle in the coming days if it falls below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and could continue to fall in the coming hours if it consolidates below the 21 SMA located at 4,137.

If XAU falls below 4,140, we could expect a further bearish movement towards the 38.2% Fibonacci level located around 4,100. If the bearish pressure prevails, the price could reach 6/8 Murray, which in turn represents strong support as it coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.

On the contrary, if gold breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and consolidates above 4,165, we could look for opportunities to continue buying with targets at 7/8 Murray located at 4,218. The instrument could finally reach 4,247, the high of November 12.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for November 27

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US stock indices gain ground

American stock indices once again gained upside momentum: the S&P 500 added 0.69%, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.82%, and the Dow Jones rose by 0.67%. The optimism in the market is tied to expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy, with investors hoping for a prompt interest rate cut. Strong data on the labor market and durable goods orders provided additional support.

Growth is also observed beyond the United States. The MSCI All Country World Index recorded its fifth consecutive positive session, reducing November losses, while Asian markets added 0.5%. Treasury bonds stabilized slightly, with the yield on 10-year bonds around 4%. The markets are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut next month and up to four reductions by the end of 2026. Follow the link for more details.

Investor optimism remains strong

Investors have shed their fears and regained confidence in the strength of the US economy. The Nasdaq has achieved its best performance since 2008, and the S&P 500 continues to rise ahead of the year's end, a traditionally favorable period for stock indices. Renewed interest in stocks is also fueled by the hype surrounding artificial intelligence, which is now perceived more as a growth driver than a bubble.

Banks are revising their previous conservative forecasts: JP Morgan estimates an 11% increase in the S&P 500 by 2026, with even higher expectations under a more aggressive Fed policy. UBS, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley also predict index growth despite the overvaluation of tech giants. In anticipation of the Christmas rally, investors are actively buying stocks, as these could signal a more dovish Federal Reserve policy. Greed is back in the market. Follow the link for more details.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair showed a sharp downward reversal while continuing to trade near the record high reached on Wednesday — the highest level since July 2024. Current spot quotes are below the 207.00 level, with a daily decline of 0.10%, although short-term trends still favor market participants expecting further price increases.

Market players remain cautious due to the potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the national currency. This, along with renewed expectations of a Bank of Japan interest rate hike in December, contributes to moderate strengthening of the Japanese yen and triggers intraday selling in the GBP/JPY pair.

Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi confirmed today that if economic activity and prices evolve in line with forecasts, the central bank will gradually adjust the degree of monetary support. In addition, Japan's Services Producer Price Index indicates inflation approaching a stable 2% target, highlighting the need for further tightening by the Bank of Japan.

However, the prevailing risk-on sentiment and concerns about Japan's worsening financial health — amid the stimulus-oriented stance of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi — limit the yen's gains as a safe-haven asset. The British pound, by contrast, is strengthening thanks to the UK budget, which includes a larger-than-expected fiscal buffer, supporting the GBP/JPY pair.

Still, growing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England next month contrast sharply with the Bank of Japan's increasingly hawkish plans. This may discourage traders from opening new long positions in the GBP/JPY pair. The market's focus now shifts to the upcoming release of fresh consumer inflation data from Tokyo, scheduled for Friday during the Asian session.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive but close to overbought territory, suggesting a possible correction. The pair has found support at 206.40, with the next support at the round level 206.00. Resistance lies just above the round level 207.00, near the annual high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to rise for the fourth day in a row, trying to gain support above the round level of 1.1600. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which reflects the value of the US currency against a basket of major currencies, has been falling for three consecutive days against a backdrop of pessimistic expectations regarding the Federal Reserve. In fact, market participants are currently pricing in roughly an 85% chance of a rate cut by the central bank in December, and recent statements from several Fed officials have only reinforced these expectations. In addition, mixed economic data released this week are not helping to ease sentiment. This, together with a positive market environment, weakens the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset and, as a result, supports the growth of the EUR/USD pair.On the opposite side of the pair, the euro is receiving some support from the cautious stance and forecasts of the ECB regarding monetary policy. On Wednesday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed moderate optimism about economic growth and confirmed that the current level of interest rates is appropriate. In addition, the head of the Croatian central bank, Boris Vujcic, emphasized that the ECB should resume lowering interest rates only if inflation falls below the target and does not rise again. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane also noted the need for a slowdown in non-energy inflation to keep the overall price level close to 2%.

Meanwhile, most experts predict that the ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged this year and will not make adjustments until the end of next year. This, in turn, benefits euro bulls by suggesting that the most likely scenario for the EUR/USD pair is upward. Nevertheless, before counting on further growth, it would be wise to wait for a sustained breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is currently near 1.1622. Moreover, modest trading volumes ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday require increased caution from traders who are betting on the pair's rise.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators on the daily chart are mixed. The pair faces resistance at the round level 1.1600, as well as at the 50-day SMA, which currently sits near 1.1622. A breakout above this level could give the bulls confidence. The pair has found support at 1.1585. The next support is at 1.1570, where the 14-day EMA and the 20-day SMA converge.

The table below shows the percentage change in the US dollar against major currencies for the week. The dollar has shown the greatest strength against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market embraces optimism as caution fades

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The rapid rally of American stock indices ahead of Thanksgiving has completely dispelled investor fears. The Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates, and it will do so aggressively, thanks in part to the influence of Hassett. The US economy is more likely to please than to disappoint. Donald Trump will continue to support the stock market, and the artificial intelligence bubble is no more than a myth. It is no surprise that the S&P 500 is rising, with the Nasdaq Composite showing its best performance since 2008.

The good news is that stock indices typically rise after Thanksgiving until the end of the year. The bad news is that they do so less eagerly than before. Moreover, in 2015, 2018, and 2022, there were declines in the S&P 500.

Stock Index Dynamics After Thanksgiving

The swift recovery in the American stock market is prompting major banks to abandon cautious forecasts. Previously calling for patience, JP Morgan now asserts that the S&P 500 will jump 11% to 7,500 by the end of 2026, thanks to the strength of the US economy, impressive corporate earnings, artificial intelligence, and the easing of Fed monetary policy. If the central bank acts aggressively and cuts the federal funds rate in half, the broad stock index could soar above the 8,000 mark.

Such forecasts are not surprising. Many banks, including UBS Group, HSBC Holding, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, expect to see double-digit gains for the S&P 500 next year. They are unfazed by the issue of inflated fundamental valuations of tech giants and their inability to generate significant profits from colossal investments.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Broad Index Predictions

In reality, the massive investment in artificial intelligence is a necessity. As OpenAI CEO Sam Altman noted, people can either reinvest in AI technologies and lose money or underinvest and miss out on income.

Thus, investor fears in the stock market have quickly been forgotten. Greed has returned. Traders are preparing for the Christmas rally and actively buying stocks. Meanwhile, disappointing statistics on private sector employment from ADP, initial jobless claims, consumer confidence, and retail sales are seen as reasons for easing Fed monetary policy, providing support for the S&P 500.

Interestingly, the Fed's Beige Book demonstrates a K-shaped development of the US economy. The rich are getting richer thanks to artificial intelligence and tech stocks, while the poor are spending less. The gap is widening, but there is no talk of a recession.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 has shown a breakout of the key pivot level at 6,770. This has enabled traders to open long positions. If the price breaks above the fair value of 6,845, buying activity could intensify.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 27, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair first bounced from the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594, and then consolidated above this level. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1594 will work in favor of the US currency and a slight decline toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1517.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bearish" for now. The bullish traders have moved into attack mode, but their efforts are still insufficient for establishing a trend. For the "bearish" trend to be considered fully completed, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656.

On Wednesday, the fundamental background was not on the side of the bulls. The most important report—the US durable goods orders for September—showed an increase of 0.5% versus the forecast of +0.3%. The previous month's figure was also revised upward by 0.1%. Less significant initial jobless claims were better than expected as well. Only the Chicago PMI disappointed the bears. Thus, the dollar had every chance yesterday to recover Tuesday's losses. However, the bearish attack was short-lived. The bulls launched a new offensive and, in my view, it is a genuine advance that cannot be overturned by local reports. I believe the bears had been pressuring the market for too long and had fully priced in all available reports, factors, and news. Now it is the bulls' turn. And the weak fundamental background for the euro will only trigger corrective pullbacks. In my opinion, the "bearish" trend will soon come to an end, and the euro will continue its upward movement.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming two "bullish" divergences on the CCI indicator. The pair consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538, which allows traders to expect continued growth toward the resistance level 1.1649–1.1680. No emerging divergences are seen today in any indicator. A rebound of the quotes from the 1.1649–1.1680 level will work in favor of the dollar and a slight decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 3,377 long positions and 2,381 short positions. COT reports have resumed publication after the government shutdown, but the data is still outdated—currently only October figures are being released. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255,000, while short positions total 137,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create long-term, structural problems for the United States. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, many key economic indicators are showing decline, and the dollar is losing its status as a "global reserve currency."

News Calendar for the US and the European Union:

European Union – Germany Consumer Confidence Index (07:00 UTC).

On November 27, the economic calendar contains only one low-impact entry. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if the hourly candle closes below 1.1594, with a target of 1.1517. Sales are also possible after a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level. However, I expect renewed growth. Buy positions could have been opened after a rebound from the 1.1517 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1594 — and this target has been reached. New buys were possible after a close above 1.1594, with a target at 1.1645–1.1656.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 27/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, SP500, INDU, NDX and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 27, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair bounced yesterday from the support level of 1.3119–1.3139 and resumed its upward movement. As of Thursday morning, the pair has consolidated above the 50.0% corrective level at 1.3240. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level of 61.8% – 1.3294. Consolidation of the quotes below 1.3240 will work in favor of the US dollar and a slight decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.3186.

The wave situation has turned "bullish." The last downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, the trend is officially "bullish" at this time. The fundamental background for the pound was weak in recent weeks, but the bears fully priced it in, and the fundamental backdrop in the US also leaves much to be desired.

The news background on Wednesday offered strong support to the bulls and the British pound. The key event of the day was the publication of the UK budget for the next financial year, which appeared online two hours ahead of schedule. Therefore, the pound was caught in a "storm of events" earlier than traders expected. To summarize briefly: many taxes will be increased. And those that will not be raised explicitly will still be raised implicitly (income tax). Thus, the UK government has found a way to patch the "budget hole" and even stay in surplus. London plans to raise more than £30 billion per year from tax increases. By raising taxes, the UK government created a £21.7 billion safety cushion. Markets reacted positively to the resolution of the budget issue. The yield on 10-year government bonds dropped to 4.45%, and the pound rose by roughly 100 pips. I also want to note that in recent weeks the pound had been falling precisely due to expectations of the new budget and tax increases. Since this factor had already been priced in by the time of publication, the only remaining direction for the pound was upward.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel and above the 1.3118–1.3140 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3339 level, and the bulls may start forming a trend. No emerging divergences are seen today in any indicator. A rebound of the quotes from 1.3339 will work in favor of the dollar and a slight decline in the pair.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" in the latest reporting week, but this reporting week was from one and a half months ago — October 7. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,871, and the number of short positions increased by 9,453. The gap between long and short positions is roughly: 94,000 vs. 98,000. Practically equal.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies led to a sharp weakening of the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England can cut the rate one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar significantly weakened in 2025, and 2026 may be no better for it.

News calendar for the US and UK:

On November 27, the economic calendar contains no significant entries. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if the quotes rebound from the 1.3294 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3240 and 1.3214. Buying could have been opened yesterday after the price consolidated above 1.3214, with targets at 1.3240 and 1.3294, or after a rebound from the 1.3119–1.3139 level with the same targets. Today, long positions can be kept open until the price closes below 1.3240.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Yen Shows Stability Against the Dollar

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In recent days, the Japanese yen has risen slightly against the US dollar, though the growth is largely technical.

In his speech, Asahi Noguchi, a member of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) Policy Board, stated that he maintains a dovish stance, refraining from fueling growing market speculation about a possible interest rate hike in December of this year. Overall, the official took a neutral position, emphasizing the importance of timely action.

"The Bank must carefully examine how various economic channels ultimately affect economic activity and prices, and use the policy interest rate as a tool to adjust the degree of monetary accommodation as needed," Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday in his speech to local business leaders in Oita, southwestern Japan.

The market interpreted this as a signal that the BOJ is not rushing to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy. The yen reacted with a slight decline; however, further weakening was limited by expectations of more dovish action from the US Federal Reserve. Investors are closely watching for any hints on whether the Fed will continue lowering interest rates.

Meanwhile, domestic Japanese factors also play an important role in yen dynamics. The state of Japan's economy and inflation outlook remain key factors determining the BOJ's stance. If the economy continues showing signs of slowing, pressure on the BOJ to reconsider its monetary policy may intensify. In the short term, the yen is likely to remain in a bearish trend, influenced by both domestic and external factors.

Noguchi's statements also reflect a softening of his recently more hawkish tone after his September speech surprised traders by suggesting that the need for rate adjustments was growing. Following a series of aggressive signals from some of his fellow board members in recent weeks, Noguchi's comments on Thursday may help the bank avoid having to make a tough decision in December.

According to Noguchi, the most realistic policy approach is to set a benchmark in the form of a presumed range for the neutral rate, and then gradually raise rates over time while monitoring their impact on the economy and prices. "I believe this is what a measured, step-by-step approach to policy adjustment should look like — the approach the Bank should follow," said the former economics professor.

Last week, board members Junko Koeda and Kazuyuki Masu contributed to market speculation about an impending rate hike next month. Koeda stated that the Bank should continue normalizing policy without indicating whether the next move would come in December. Meanwhile, Masu said in an interview that the timing of a rate hike was approaching.

Recall that speculation regarding rate hikes intensified after the yen nearly collapsed to its January lows this year against the US dollar.

As for the current technical picture of USD/JPY, buyers need to take control of the nearest resistance at 156.30. This would allow them to target 156.70, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The most distant target is 157.10. In the event of a decline, the bears will attempt to regain control of 155.90. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push USD/JPY toward the 155.55 low, with the prospect of reaching 155.15.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The New UK Budget: Everything on the Shoulders of the Wealthy

.Yesterday, the new UK budget was published. It is expected that by the beginning of the next decade, around 5.4 million British workers will be paying income tax at a rate between 40% and 45%.

However, the Labor Party's Chancellor of the Exchequer announced that the freeze on personal income tax thresholds, which is currently in effect, will be extended for another three years — meaning they will not be raised in line with inflation. Critics have called such measures a form of fiscal drag and a hidden tax raid. Clearly, this is a continuation of the tactics used by Reeves' Conservative predecessors to avoid political backlash from effectively raising tax rates.

This freeze has far-reaching consequences. As wages and inflation rise, more and more people fall into higher tax brackets, which means that a larger portion of their income is taxed at higher rates. Despite their nominal salaries increasing, their disposable income essentially decreases, putting pressure on household budgets and reducing consumer spending. The effects of such "fiscal drag" will be felt not only by higher-income workers. Since thresholds are not adjusted for inflation, more people with moderate incomes will also find themselves trapped into paying higher taxes. This is particularly problematic in the current economic climate, where many families are already struggling with the rising cost of living.

But as the government faces enormous debt and the need to fund public spending, the extra revenue generated by fiscal drag may seem like an attractive solution. Critics, however, argue that this is a short-sighted policy that harms economic growth.

According to estimates from the Office for Budget Responsibility, this measure will allow the government to collect about £13 billion by 2030–2031, as millions of Britons suddenly discover that their salaries place them in higher tax brackets. By the end of the period, nearly one in four taxpayers will fall into one of the two highest income tax categories, compared with 15% in 2021–2022.

The repeated use of this policy has significantly contributed to increasing the UK's tax revenues to a projected historic high of 38% of GDP. Starmer and Reeves had criticized the Tories for delays in fiscal policy while in opposition, and the Chancellor even praised her own decision to reverse the freeze in her first budget last year, claiming that otherwise it would "harm working people." But as we can see, none of those promises were fulfilled.

On Wednesday, when journalists pressed Reeves about reversing the freeze, she said she was making the choices necessary to balance the country's finances and listed other measures aimed at reducing the cost of living. "I am being open and honest," Reeves said. "From 2028 onward, thresholds will be frozen for a longer period, and of course that comes at a cost. But we are now putting money in the pockets of working people."

The freeze means that by the end of the forecast period, 5.2 million people will still be paying the basic income tax rate of 20%. Another 4.8 million will move into the higher 40% tax bracket for those with annual incomes between £50,271 and £125,140. Another 600,000 will move into the top tax bracket of 45% for the highest earners.

The British pound reacted with growth to the new tax maneuvers involved in setting the budget and its expenditures.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, buyers of the pound need to take control of the nearest resistance at 1.3270. Only then will it be possible to target 1.3310, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.3335 level. In case the pair declines, the bears will try to regain control over 1.3245. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3215 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3185.

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1615 level. Only then will a test of 1.1635 become possible. From there, it may be possible to climb toward 1.1655, though doing so without support from large market participants will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1675 high. In the event of a decline in the trading instrument, only around 1.1590 do I expect any significant activity from major buyers. If no one appears there, it may be wise to wait for an update of the 1.1570 low or to open long positions from 1.1550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 27, 2025

.Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Thursday, the market may continue its upward movement from the 1.3237 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.3282, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). From this level, the price may possibly roll back downward toward 1.3232, the historical resistance level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart).

Composite Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — upward
• Fibonacci levels — upward
• Volumes — upward
• Candlestick analysis — upward
• Trend analysis — upward
• Bollinger Bands — upward
• Weekly chart — upward

Overall conclusion: Uptrend.

Alternative Scenario:From the 1.3237 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upward, targeting 1.3282, the 38.2% retracement level (blue dashed line). From this level, the price may possibly roll back downward toward 1.3193, the 5-period EMA (thin red line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 27, 2025

.Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).On Thursday, the market may continue moving upward from the 1.1594 level (yesterday's daily candle close), aiming for 1.1608 — the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.1575, the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart).

Composite Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — upward
• Fibonacci levels — upward
• Volumes — upward
• Candlestick analysis — upward
• Trend analysis — upward
• Bollinger Bands — upward
• Weekly chart — upward

Overall conclusion: Uptrend.

Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, the market may continue upward from the 1.1594 level (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.1608, the historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.1556, the historical support level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold and Platinum Prices Rise

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The demand for gold remains strong amid growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut this December.

Expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve are boosting investor interest in gold, a traditionally safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty and declining interest rates. Gold, which does not yield interest income, becomes more attractive relative to alternative investments such as bonds when their yields fall. Additionally, the current weakness of the U.S. dollar makes gold more accessible to buyers using other currencies, further boosting demand. However, it is important to note that the dynamics of gold prices are influenced by numerous factors, and expectations of rate cuts in the U.S. are just one of them.

Platinum also rose after the Chinese exchange launched futures contracts for the metal, boosting optimism about demand in the country. Spot prices in London rose by 3.8%, reaching almost $1,650 per ounce, the highest level in over a month. In China, June delivery futures increased by 12% but then experienced a slight decline.

In a statement, the exchange said that the new contracts with physical settlements are aimed at both institutional and retail investors, broadening the pool of participants. The exchange will also publish daily inventory data, providing a rare opportunity to assess the current situation in one of the largest markets for this metal.

Ahead of the launch, China imported 10.2 tons of platinum in October, more than double the volume for the same month last year. This year, platinum has risen by more than 70%, overall following silver's dynamics but significantly outperforming gold. The market is preparing for the third annual deficit amid supply disruptions in South Africa, the largest producer. Additionally, there are rumors that the U.S. may impose tariffs on this metal, attracting ounces to the country and tightening conditions in other countries.

Regarding other metals, silver fell by 1% after Wednesday's 3.7% rise, approaching record levels. Palladium also decreased in price.

In terms of the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at $4,186. This will set the target at $4,249, above which it will be quite challenging to penetrate. The furthest target will be the area around $4,304. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to gain control over $4,124. If successful, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the positions of bulls and push gold down to a minimum of $4,062, with the potential to approach $4,008.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 27. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.55 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 15 pips.

The data on the decline in U.S. jobless claims provided some support for the dollar, but the risks of further Federal Reserve rate cuts outweighed that support. This led to another weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. Investors continue to lean towards the view that the Fed will be forced to continue easing monetary policy amid slowing economic growth. This explains the growing interest in the Japanese yen. The strengthening of the yen may also be linked to expectations of a change in the Bank of Japan's policy toward raising interest rates by the end of this year.

Today, the BoJ published the core consumer price index, which came in at 2.2%, matching economists' forecasts. However, the match with expectations does not quiet the debates about future monetary policy. Inflation remains above the BoJ's 2% target, increasing the likelihood of more aggressive actions by the central bank. However, the BoJ faces a complex dilemma. On one hand, too rapid a tightening of monetary policy could stifle the already fragile economic recovery. On the other hand, prolonged maintenance of the current accommodative policy could lead to further depreciation of the yen and increased inflation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 156.20 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.77 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.77, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the reverse direction from the level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.82 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.20 and 156.77.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the level at 155.82 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.18, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.20 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 155.82 and 155.18.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 27. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3179 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and driving a rise towards the target level of 1.3235.

The publication of the UK budget sparked volatility, with the pound emerging as the winner. Investors seemingly perceived the budget initiatives as evidence of the government's commitment to stabilizing the economic situation. Specifically, the tax increases and spending cuts, while painful for the population and businesses, are viewed as necessary steps to restore confidence in the British economy. However, the key factor driving the pound's rise was the realization that the government's fiscal measures would inevitably put additional pressure on inflation.

Today's trading day is characterized by relative calm regarding the publication of important macroeconomic indicators. The only event worth noting will be the speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Green. Her speech is particularly important—especially in light of the new budget. Investors will focus their attention on her statements, aiming to understand how the BoE plans to respond to potential inflationary pressures. If her comments are more moderate and she emphasizes risks to economic growth, this could undermine investor optimism and weaken the pound.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3267 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3304 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3304, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips in the reverse direction. Expecting a rise in the pound can be based on the continuation of the new upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3246 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3267 and 1.3304.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3246 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3219, where I intend to exit the shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level. It is unlikely that sellers of the pound will make a strong appearance today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3267 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3246 and 1.3219.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 27. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The price test at 1.1565 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 15 pips, and that was the end of it.

The brief rise in the dollar, driven by news of a decline in new jobless claims in the United States, failed to reverse the overall downward trend in the American currency. The expectation of further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve remains the main factor weighing on the dollar.

Today, a rather interesting set of reports is expected in the first half of the day. The GfK consumer climate leading index from Germany will be an important indicator of consumer sentiment, which largely determines retail sales dynamics and, ultimately, GDP growth in the country. Positive data could support market optimism, allowing the euro to continue rising. Figures on private-sector credit and changes in the M3 money supply aggregate are also of interest, as they provide insights into credit dynamics and liquidity in the economy. An increase in lending may indicate strengthening economic activity, while an increase in the money supply may signal inflationary risks. The European Central Bank report from the last meeting is unlikely to change the market direction for the euro since we won't hear anything new from ECB representatives.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1611 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.1641. At 1.1641, I plan to exit the market and sell euros on the rebound, aiming for a 30-35-pip move from the entry point. Expecting a rise in the euro can only be based on positive data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1595 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1611 and 1.1641.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1595 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1565, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from the level. Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1611 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1595 and 1.1565.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 27: S&P 500 and NASDAQ set to recoup November losses

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Yesterday, stock indices closed with gains. The S&P 500 rose by 0.69%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.82%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 0.67%.

Global stock indices are close to recovering November losses, as rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have revived markets after a sell-off caused by concerns over inflated AI valuations.

Support for the markets also came from positive macroeconomic data regarding the US labor market and durable goods orders, indicating the resilience of the American economy despite the challenges it faces. Particularly, the technology sector has once again become the growth engine. The potential of artificial intelligence and the high valuations of many companies in this field are positively impacting market sentiment.

The MSCI All Country World Index rose for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday, reducing its November decline to just 0.5%. Asian indices, which also demonstrated similar gains, rose by 0.5%, cutting their losses since early November to 2%. The four-day rally in Treasury bonds paused on Wednesday, with the yield on 10-year bonds at 4%.

Today, American stock markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, so trading will be less intense in the afternoon.

The index growth occurred amid expectations of eased Fed policy, with money markets now pricing in approximately an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month and three additional cuts by the end of 2026. A week ago, traders were only expecting three cuts for next year.

"Certainly it looks like the Fed rate-cut optimism has offset AI bubble," Saxo Markets said. "And the weaker dollar adds an additional leg of support."

Meanwhile, the release of the US Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated a slight decline in employment levels, while prices increased moderately. Consumer spending continued to shrink, with the exception of high-income consumers. Additionally, the number of initial jobless claims fell slightly, contrary to expectations of moderate growth.

In the commodities market, oil prices dipped slightly as investors continued to closely monitor US efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,819. This would help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,837. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,842 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,801. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,784 and open the path to $6,769.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on November 27

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Yesterday, Bitcoin saw a significant rise, returning to the $90,000 area. This opens the door to an update of the broader resistance around $93,000. Ethereum also returned to the $3,000 mark and is now trying to consolidate at this level.

The increase in risk appetite was fueled by the sustained strength of global stock indices, which also affected the cryptocurrency market.

However, it's important to remember that the bearish market we observed just a week ago has not gone anywhere, and the current movement should still be viewed as a pursuit of sellers'sellers' stop losses, not as the resumption of a new bullish market. The cryptocurrency market has always been characterized by high volatility, and corrections are always inevitable. Traders should exercise caution, especially when working with leverage. It is crucial to analyze situations thoroughly and not succumb to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) to avoid potential losses.

Currently, there is an interesting picture: on one hand, institutional investors are showing increasing interest in cryptocurrencies, viewing them as an alternative asset for portfolio diversification. On the other hand, it is far from clear whether the selling from major players, which we have seen throughout the month, has ended or whether this is just a pause before another storm. I am leaning more toward the latter option.

Regarding the intraday strategy on the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continued development of the bullish market in the medium term, which has not yet disappeared.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $91,700, targeting a move to $93,300. At around $93,300, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be considered at the lower boundary of $90,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $91,700 and $93,300.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $90,800, targeting a decline to $89,400. At around $89,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can also be done at the upper boundary of $91,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $90,800 and $89,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,045, targeting a move to $3,103. At around $3,103, I will exit the purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be considered from the lower boundary of $3,012 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels of $3,045 and $3,103.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,012, targeting a decline to $2,953. At around $2,953, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be done from the upper boundary at $3,045 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,012 and $2,953.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.