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EUR/USD. Smart Money. Holiday Festivities Continue

.The EUR/USD pair rebounded from the bullish imbalance 9 zone and resumed its upward movement, simultaneously forming another bullish imbalance. As a result, traders have recently received a third consecutive bullish signal, and as early as today or Friday they may receive a fourth. At present, long positions opened from imbalances 3 and 8 are showing profits of around 250 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do next: wait for greater profits or close positions now. Personally, I expect further growth in the euro and currently see no signs of a trend reversal to the bearish side.

Last week, there was a liquidity grab from the swing dated December 16, which served as the basis for the start of the decline. However, the decline remains very weak, and a liquidity grab is not a pattern—it cannot be used to open trades or draw long-term conclusions. The decline in the pair may already be completed this week, as bullish imbalance 10 also serves as a support zone for the price.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact; reactions have been received from bullish imbalance 3, bullish imbalance 8, and bullish imbalance 9. Despite the fairly prolonged decline in the euro, the dollar has failed to break the bullish trend. It had five months to do so and achieved no results. Should bearish patterns or signs of a bullish trend breakdown appear, the strategy can be adjusted. At the moment, however, nothing points to such a scenario.

There was no news background on Tuesday, and trader activity remains minimal ahead of the New Year and after Christmas.

The bulls have had more than enough reasons to launch a new offensive for the past three months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the dovish (in any case) outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the US–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests against Trump (which have swept across America three times this year), weakness in the labor market, the bleak outlook for the US economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my view, further growth in the pair is entirely justified.

One should also not overlook Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump has stopped openly criticizing the Fed. However, I personally believe this is just another "temporary calm." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which explains the absence of renewed criticism from Trump. Nevertheless, this does not mean these factors no longer pose problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The information background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, and therefore I do not attempt to do so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. Bears would need to push the price down by about 400 points to reach it, a task I consider unrealistic under the current news backdrop and circumstances. The nearest upside target for the euro remains the bearish imbalance zone at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

US and Eurozone News Calendar

December 31: The economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

In my view, the pair may be approaching the final stage of its bullish trend. Despite the fact that the information background remains in favor of the bulls, bears have been attacking more frequently in recent months. Even so, I currently see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro, and in all cases we saw some degree of growth. Additional opportunities to open new trend-following long positions appeared when a reaction was received from bullish imbalance 3, then after the reaction from imbalance 8, and later after the rebound from imbalance 9. This week, a reaction to bullish imbalance 10 may occur. The target for euro growth remains the 1.1976 level. Long positions can be kept open with Stop Loss orders moved to breakeven—or managed at the trader's discretion.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Smart Money. New Year's Calm Accompanied by the Pound

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The GBP/USD pair has rebounded from the bullish imbalance 11 and resumed its upward movement, just as I had warned. At the moment, long positions are showing profits of around 400 points, and traders can decide for themselves what to do with them next. In my view, the bullish trend has not been completed; the advance that began in the first ten days of November is not over. There are no viable bearish patterns on the pound from which a bearish attack could be expected. On the contrary, another bullish pattern has appeared, which could serve as a base for a new bullish offensive — most likely as early as next year.

Last week, another bullish imbalance was formed, and the price is now moving toward this pattern. As a result, today or tomorrow the price may react to it, giving traders a new bullish signal. I would like to note that an imbalance pattern usually consists of three candles, but in our case it can be considered to consist of four. Let me remind you that an imbalance is a "price slip." The chart clearly shows that it took up two daily candles, which the price literally flew through. Above the current price, the pound has virtually no significant resistance zones. Thus, there are no bearish patterns, no reactions to bearish patterns, and no liquidity grabs from bullish swings.

The current chart picture is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound may be considered complete, but the bullish trend in the euro is not. Therefore, the European currency can continue to pull the pound upward for as long as necessary. The bulls bounced off bullish imbalance 1, bullish imbalance 10, and twice from bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals were formed. A new support zone has appeared below — imbalance 12. As a result, I still expect growth toward the yearly highs, around the 1.3765 level.

There was no news background on Tuesday. New graphical buy signals may still appear before the end of the year, but I would not rely too much on that — market movements are currently too weak.

In the US, the overall news background remains such that nothing other than a decline in the dollar can be expected in the long term. The situation in the US remains quite challenging. The shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans have agreed on funding only until the end of January. There has been no US labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the most recent labor market data allows for a fourth consecutive round of monetary easing in January. In my opinion, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to the yearly highs.

A bearish trend would require a strong and consistently positive news background for the US dollar, which is hard to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the US president himself does not need a strong dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly sharp decline in September and October. Too many risk factors continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. What would allow the bears to push the pound further down if a bearish trend is supposedly forming now? I cannot answer that question, which is why I do not believe the dollar's decline has been completed. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential fall in the pound can be reconsidered.

US and UK News Calendar

December 31: The economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

The outlook for the pound remains favorable for traders. Three bullish patterns have already played out, signals have been formed, and traders can continue to hold long positions. I see no fundamental reasons for a sharp decline in the pound in the near future.

A resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as from imbalance 1. At this point, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a potential upward target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, although the pound may rise much higher — though most likely next year. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but this week, another bullish signal from imbalance 12 is more likely.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on December 30, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD looks quite clear, although fairly complex. There is no indication that the bullish trend segment that began in January 2025 has been canceled, but the wave structure since July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which developed in a very unconventional manner. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of this wave.

In my opinion, the construction of the bullish trend segment has not yet been completed, and its targets are spread as high as the 1.25 level. The series of waves a–b–c–d–e appears complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new bullish wave sequence. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3, or c. This wave is taking on a fairly extended form, which is very positive, as it increases the likelihood that it will be impulsive—and, along with it, the entire bullish wave sequence.

The EUR/USD rate barely changed during Tuesday. Market volatility remains low as the market prepares for the New Year. Only two working days remain this week, and I strongly doubt that market participants will be actively opening trades on December 31 or January 2, given the complete absence of a news backdrop.

The year 2025 is coming to an end, and in summary only one conclusion can be drawn: the dollar has demonstrated record weakness, losing ground against virtually all currencies worldwide. Donald Trump's policies have dealt a crushing blow to the dollar, but the White House is pleased with this outcome, as a weaker currency is seen as a solution to the problem of low exports and a negative trade balance. Therefore, I have no doubt that the decline in the dollar's value will continue in 2026. However, the dollar should fear not only Trump's policies, but also those of the FOMC. At its December meeting, the FOMC showed readiness to cut interest rates once in 2026 (according to the dot plot). However, many market participants and economists are already convinced that there will be at least three rounds of easing. The labor market remains weak, Trump continues to demand a rate cut of at least 100 basis points, Jerome Powell is leaving his post, and inflation—contrary to market expectations—slowed in November. Consequently, the Fed has everything it needs not to delay further easing. The market understands this and may resume selling the US currency as early as January, as the outlook for the dollar in 2026 remains negative.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to form a bullish trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors weighing on the US dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 1.25 level. The current upward wave sequence is beginning to develop, and there is reason to believe that we are now witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure within the global wave 5. In this case, further growth should be expected, with targets near 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci levels.

On a smaller time scale, the entire bullish trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves differ in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this does happen. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts, rather than strictly adhering to every single wave. At present, the bullish structure raises no doubts.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.95 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

In the second half of the day, market participants' attention will be focused on the release of a series of US data. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, covering the 20 largest cities, will help assess housing price dynamics and determine how the Fed's current accommodative policy is affecting the real estate market. The Chicago PMI will provide insight into the current state of the region's manufacturing sector. In an environment of economic recovery, PMI data will be an important indicator for gauging business sentiment. However, the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes will be of greatest importance to the market. Particular attention will be paid to any signals regarding the Fed's intentions on further monetary easing or, conversely, the possibility of pausing the rate-cutting cycle. Even the slightest hints of a shift in the regulator's stance could trigger an immediate reaction in the foreign exchange market.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the entry point is reached near 155.98 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward the 156.38 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.38, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Further upside can be expected in continuation of the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.81 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 155.98 and 156.38 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below (update of) the 155.81 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.49 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today in the case of weak US data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 155.98 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.81 and 155.49 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3506 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly downward from the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential.

Against the backdrop of a lack of any UK economic data, the British pound managed to hold its ground against the US dollar. A market accustomed to a steady flow of economic reports suddenly faced an information vacuum. However, this silence carries a certain risk: the absence of news can trigger speculative moves based on rumors and sentiment rather than facts.

In the second half of the day, traders will closely monitor housing price dynamics to assess the impact of current Fed policy on the real estate market. A slowdown in price growth may indicate the effectiveness of measures aimed at curbing inflation, but it could also point to a weakening economy. The Chicago PMI, which reflects business activity in the region, will provide insight into the state of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 will signal expansion, while a value below will indicate contraction. However, the greatest interest will undoubtedly be the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Market participants hope to gain more detailed insight into the discussions held among Federal Open Market Committee members regarding the future path of interest rates and inflation prospects. Particular attention will be paid to signals about the Fed's readiness for further monetary policy easing.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the entry point is reached near 1.3522 (green line on the chart), with a growth target toward the 1.3555 level (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3555, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pound appreciation today can only be expected if US data turn out to be very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3506 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3522 and 1.3555 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below (update of) the 1.3506 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3472 level, where I will exit short positions and also open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pound may return today only within the framework of a corrective move.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3522 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3506 and 1.3472 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the European Currency

The test of the 1.1770 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. However, this did not result in a major decline.

The pre-holiday calm in Europe has affected EUR/USD fluctuations, locking the pair within a narrow range. Market participants, absorbed in the holiday mood, are showing restraint, refraining from active actions and risky trades.

In the second half of the day, updated data on the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for the 20 largest cities, as well as the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (Chicago PMI), could attract attention and revive trading. In addition, the report from the latest Federal Reserve meeting will be released. These events are likely to act as sparks that may reignite activity in markets that have gone quiet ahead of the holidays.

However, the most important event will be the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. This report will give market participants an opportunity to examine in detail the reasoning behind the regulator's recent decisions. Investors will look for clues about future monetary policy and assess the Fed's intentions regarding further interest rate cuts.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1781 level (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 1.1807 level. At 1.1807, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected within the trend following weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1769 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1781 and 1.1807 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1769 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1745 level, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1781 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1769 and 1.1745 can be expected.

What's on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – projected price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The single European currency is holding near the 1.1760 level, trading within a narrow range. Such calm price action is quite logical given the holiday period between Christmas and New Year.

The EUR/USD pair may have some potential to strengthen, as the US dollar is facing pressure amid ongoing expectations of two additional possible Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. According to the CME FedWatch Index, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at the January meeting stands at 83.9%, slightly higher than 80.1% a week earlier. At the same time, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has declined from 19.9% to 16.1%.

The year now coming to an end has been marked by significant losses in the US dollar's positions.

At its December meeting, the US central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points, setting the target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Over the course of 2025, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 75 basis points, reflecting a slowdown in the labor market and still-elevated inflation.

The Fed's rate cuts and a strong year for global equity markets played a key role in weakening the dollar, paving the way for the euro to take the lead. However, many analysts believe that the European economy does not justify such expectations and does not deserve this advantage.

The euro may face challenges as market risk appetite increases, amid heightened tensions in relations between Ukraine and Russia. Russia's foreign minister noted that Moscow's position during negotiations could change.

However, the downside in the euro is limited, as markets are factoring in the divergence in policy direction between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. In December, the ECB left interest rates unchanged and signaled that they are likely to remain at current levels in the near term. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that high uncertainty complicates the formulation of forecasts regarding future interest rate changes.

As no major events are expected before the end of the year, attention is shifting to 2026 and the key factors that are expected to determine movements in currency pairs.

At the center of attention is central bank policy, which will undoubtedly be the main driver of exchange rates. Analysts' views on the Fed's intentions remain mixed, creating a degree of uncertainty that is prompting investors to avoid taking large positions.

For trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of the minutes from the latest Fed meeting, as much will depend on whether they can influence future Fed decisions.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, confirming a bullish outlook. Support is located at the 9-day EMA near 1.1760, while resistance is at the round level of 1.1800. However, during the holiday period, prices are likely to remain within the same sideways trading range.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading tips for crypto market on December 30 (North American session)

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Bitcoin has slightly regained ground, returning to the $88,000 area. Ethereum has also seen a modest increase, reaching $2,980. However, this does not yet indicate that the market is ready to continue its upward trend.

On the other hand, data showing that long-term holders have stopped selling Bitcoin for the first time since July 2025 is a different signal altogether. This may indicate that major players holding significant amounts of BTC have shifted their sentiment. They may view current levels as attractive for holding and accumulating rather than for taking profits. This factor, in turn, could support prices in the near term, preventing further declines.

However, it's important to remember that the behavior of long-term holders is just one of many factors affecting the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. The macroeconomic environment, regulatory changes, and investors' overall risk appetite must also be considered. At the same time, a positive aspect is the growing interest of institutional investors in Bitcoin. As more large companies recognize the potential of cryptocurrencies and integrate them into their investment strategies, the demand for BTC may increase, which will support its price in the long term. Once we see a new influx of funds into spot ETFs, it will be an additional signal that the bearish cycle has ended.

Regarding intraday strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act based on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches an entry point around $88,100, aiming for a rise to $88,800. Near $88,800, I will exit buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Bitcoin from the lower border of $87,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout backwards towards the levels of $88,100 and $88,800.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches an entry point around $87,400, aiming for a decline to $86,400. Near $86,400, I will exit sell positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper border of $88,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout backwards towards the levels of $87,400 and $86,400.

Ethereum

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches an entry point around $2,987, aiming for a rise to $3,031. Near $3,031, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: I can buy Ethereum from the lower border of $2,965 if there is no market reaction to its breakout backwards towards the levels of $2,987 and $3,031.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if the price reaches an entry point around $2,965, aiming for a decline to $2,921. Near $2,921, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper border of $2,987 if there is no market reaction to its breakout backwards towards the levels of $2,965 and $2,921.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/GBP. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, Tuesday, the EUR/GBP exchange rate is trading within the same range as yesterday. The euro is attempting to rise, but the pair's growth has stalled amid sterling's strengthening, supported by optimistic expectations regarding the Bank of England's future monetary policy actions. The British currency received support from recent comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, who noted that the regulator will continue a gradual reduction of interest rates. At the same time, Bailey emphasized that the scope for further easing is limited, as current rates are close to the neutral level. He also added that subsequent decisions will be made with particular caution and will be based on incoming macroeconomic data.

In December, the Bank of England cut the base rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% following a narrow vote (five votes to four), reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee's ongoing concerns about inflation risks. Despite UK inflation slowing to 3.2% in November, the figure remains above the central bank's 2% target. At the same time, UK GDP grew by 0.1% in the third quarter, in line with forecasts, while the Bank of England expects zero growth in the final quarter of 2025.

As for the euro, downward pressure on EUR/GBP remains limited amid signals that the European Central Bank's rate-cutting cycle is likely approaching its end. At its most recent meeting in December, the ECB left rates unchanged, noting that their level is likely to remain stable in the coming months. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that, amid uncertainty, the regulator is avoiding forward guidance on the future path of rates, adhering instead to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Market estimates suggest that the probability of a 25-basis-point ECB rate cut in February does not exceed 10%. Such expectations of stable monetary policy in the euro area may help prevent the euro from weakening more significantly in the short term.

Overall, the pound's position remains resilient, as investors expect the Bank of England to continue a smooth and measured easing cycle in 2026, refraining from sharp moves while inflation remains above target. In the coming days, EUR/GBP is likely to maintain sideways movement amid declining market activity ahead of the New Year holidays. The comparative table of percentage changes shows that today the euro is demonstrating the greatest strength against the New Zealand dollar.

From a technical perspective, prices have fallen below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), confirming bullish weakness. Oscillators across all timeframes are in negative territory, pointing to a bearish outlook. However, during the holiday period prices are likely to remain in a sideways trend due to the lack of full market liquidity. The pair has found support at the 0.8705 level, with the main support at the round number of 0.870. Resistance is provided by the 100-day SMA around 0.872, above which the 9-day EMA near 0.873 will present the next obstacle.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 30/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 30, 2025

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On Monday, the EUR/USD pair continued a very mild decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718 after four rebounds from the resistance zone of 1.1795–1.1802. A firm consolidation above the 1.1795–1.1802 level would work in favor of the European currency and a continuation of growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1919.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave broke above the peak of the previous wave, while the most recent downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks the bulls regained some confidence, after which the holidays began. The Fed's monetary policy easing will put pressure on the dollar in 2026, while the ECB will not create any problems for the euro.

On Monday, there was no news background in either the United States or the European Union, and both last week and the current week are more holiday-oriented than working weeks. Ahead of the New Year, bullish traders stopped attacking and gave the bears a chance to show themselves. Of course, neither bulls nor bears want to attack during the New Year period, which is why we are not seeing any significant strengthening of the US dollar. This state of affairs in the market is likely to persist until next year. As early as next week, economic data will start to come in, the market will move past the holidays, and trading activity will resume. In my view, we may see a new bullish advance as early as the beginning of next year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the European currency and resumed its growth toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A rebound from this level would work in favor of the US dollar and lead to a modest decline toward the support level of 1.1649–1.1680. A firm break and consolidation above the 1.1829 level would increase the likelihood of further euro gains. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 8,884 long positions and 2,769 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 277,000, while short positions amount to 132,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing longs. Then the "shutdown" began, and now we are seeing the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have a long-term and structural nature for the United States—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Traders fear a loss of the Fed's independence in 2026 under pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's planned resignation in May.

News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

On December 30, the economic calendar contains no scheduled events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1795–1.1802 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1718. These trades can be kept open today, but I do not expect a strong decline. Buy trades can be opened after a close above the 1.1795–1.1802 level with a target at 1.1919.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392 to 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 to 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 30, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday declined to the Fibonacci level of 100.0% at 1.3470, then rebounded and reversed in favor of the British pound. A growth phase began toward the resistance zone of 1.3533–1.3539. A rebound from this zone would work in favor of the US dollar and a renewed decline toward the 1.3470 level. A firm break and consolidation above this zone would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 127.2% corrective level at 1.3595.

The wave situation has once again turned "bullish" after the completion of a sideways range. The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave managed to break the previous peak. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the informational backdrop in the US also leaves much to be desired. Bulls and bears spent a week in a tug-of-war, remaining in relative balance, but a week before the New Year the bulls launched a new offensive.

There was no news background on Monday, but December data from the US allowed bullish traders to move into a new advance. Due to the holidays, their momentum and activity have faded somewhat, but after the New Year the advance may resume. At this point, it already makes sense to speak about the coming year, as during the current week there will be more holidays than usual. Of course, the market will be open on December 31, but who will be trading on New Year's Eve? Thus, I believe that a sideways market will persist until the end of the year, but if trading signals appear, traders may well be able to work them. The news background will be absent not only today but throughout the entire current week. Only technical (chart) analysis can help traders make trading decisions.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the 100.0% corrective level at 1.3435, which allows for expectations of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. A "bearish" divergence has formed on the CCI indicator, which may trigger a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a return to the support level of 1.3369–1.3435. A rebound from the 1.3435 level would increase the chances of continued growth of the pound.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish" over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,649, while the number of short positions decreased by 25,368. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 61,000 versus 110,000. As we can see, bears dominated in December, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro currency contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency may occasionally enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve has been forced to ease monetary policy in order to curb the rise in unemployment and stimulate the creation of new jobs. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan significant monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be certain that the Fed's stance will not shift toward a more "dovish" one during the year.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

On December 30, the economic calendar contains no scheduled events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.3533–1.3539 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3470. The target was reached. If the 1.3470 level is broken, new sell trades can be opened with targets at 1.3437 and 1.3362. I recommended buying on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level with a target of 1.3533–1.3539. Today, these trades can be kept open.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Investors favor global assets

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In 2025, the strategies of "Buy America" and "Sell America" alternated. In 2026, these may be replaced by the slogan "anything but America." The slowing economic growth in the United States, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's policies, decreasing confidence in US-issued assets, and challenges related to artificial intelligence are prompting investors to fill their portfolios with what they previously lacked. Will the S&P 500 withstand such capital outflow pressure?

Dynamics of US and Global Stock Index Ratio

2025 is set to be the best year for the global stock market since 2009. The global MSCI ex USA has risen by more than 29%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500, which gained only 17%. Emerging market indices increased by 30%, while the Chinese MSCI jumped by 29%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 28%. The whole world appeared stronger than the US. However, due to advances in artificial intelligence and a loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, capital that had turned toward Europe and Asia has managed to flow back into the United States.

Can the S&P 500 gain support from these factors in 2026? The outcome will depend on the pace of federal funds rate cuts and the ability of technology companies to generate adequate profits from their significant investments. The futures market anticipates two acts of monetary expansion from the Fed. However, if Donald Trump can fill the FOMC with dovish members, that number could increase.

Technology companies are transitioning from a race to train artificial intelligence to promoting it to the masses. NVIDIA is facing serious competition from other giants, including Alphabet and Amazon. It is not surprising that NVIDIA seeks to strike a $20 billion deal with the startup Groq, which develops chips and software for AI deployment.

The potential slowing of US GDP, Trump's eccentricities, and waning interest in artificial intelligence technology do not deter Wall Street experts. Major banks predict a 9% growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, with none of the respondents anticipating a decline in the broad market index.

Wall Street's S&P 500 Predictions

If these estimates come to fruition, the US stock market will be under the influence of bulls for the fourth consecutive year, marking the longest winning streak in two decades. Since the lows of October 2022, the S&P 500 has increased by 90%. The highest forecast of 8,000 comes from Oppenheimer, while the lowest is from Stifel Nicolaus.

Thus, Wall Street experts believe that the broad market index will be able to withstand numerous headwinds.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the S&P 500 showed a market pullback with a downward gap. Typically, gap filling in a bullish market serves as a basis for buying. Therefore, a return of the broad market index to the 6,922 level would provide an opportunity to increase previously opened long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro:

The test of the price at 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 15 pips.

It seems that market players have adapted to President Trump's unconventional communication style despite his attacks on the Federal Reserve. Investors probably assume that dismissing the Fed Chair, as Trump stated during an interview yesterday, is unlikely before Powell's term ends in May of next year. Consequently, the EUR/USD currency pair remained within the channel, showing no pronounced direction.

Today also appears to be relatively quiet. The absence of economic reports from the Eurozone in the first half of the day suggests minimal volatility. This pause in the flow of macroeconomic news allows market participants to focus on technical analysis, which may have only an indirect impact on currency dynamics. Special attention, similar to yesterday, should be given to any unexpected statements from political figures or central bank leaders, as they can cause spikes in volatility even in the absence of scheduled reports.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro at around 1.1785 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1817. At point 1.1817, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated within the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also look to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1770 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the levels of 1.1785 and 1.1817.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1770 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1745, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable today in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1785 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1770 and 1.1745.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 156.31 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test of the price at 156.13 led to the realization of Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but it did not yield significant gains.

Yesterday's remarks by Trump directed at Powell did not destabilize the situation in the currency market. This is likely because the legal aspects of the potential dismissal remain ambiguous, and market participants assess the likelihood of actual implementation as minimal. Investors likely also took into account that, despite the pressure from authorities, the Federal Reserve retains a degree of autonomy enshrined in legislation. While any attempts at political influence on central bank activities could provoke negative reactions not only from market players but also from the public, this did not happen yesterday.

Given the lack of key data from Japan and the US, it is likely the pair will remain within the channel it has been in since the middle of last week until the end of the year.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.12 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.38 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.37, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.95 twice, during which the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.12 and 156.38.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 155.95 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.72 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.12 twice in a row, during which the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.95 and 155.72.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3483 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair only dropped by 10 pips.

Despite the potential instability that could result from an open confrontation between the president and the head of the US central bank, investors seemed to have taken a wait-and-see approach. This may be because the legal aspects of dismissing Powell, which Trump hinted at yesterday, remain contentious, and the market assesses the probability of such an action as low. Furthermore, Trump's remarks may have been perceived as yet another attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve into easing monetary policy. The lack of key economic data from the US also contributed to the market's restrained reaction.

Today, there is again no report from the UK, so trading is likely to remain within a sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers capable of pulling the British pound out of this prolonged consolidation leaves traders waiting. Focus is shifting to external factors: the dynamics of the global economy and any geopolitical risks that may indirectly affect the British currency. In the absence of domestic indicators, market participants will closely monitor news from the Eurozone and the US. Technical analysis will play a crucial role in the current situation. Traders will focus on support and resistance levels, as well as graphic patterns, to determine potential entry and exit points.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3528 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3555, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is unlikely to expect strong growth from the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3506 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.3538 and 1.3555.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3506 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3472 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest within the scope of a correction. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3528 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3506 and 1.3472.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 30

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The euro, pound, and Japanese yen have continued to trade within ranges.

Yesterday's statements by Trump about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell became one of the day's most significant events. However, this did not affect the market dynamics. Despite the rhetoric against the Fed's independence, the markets appear to have grown accustomed to Trump's unconventional communication style. Traders may have concluded that firing the Fed Chair, while technically possible, is unlikely. Furthermore, the lack of significant economic data from the US left market participants without guidance or incentives to trade actively. Usually, the release of key macroeconomic indicators, such as employment, inflation, or GDP data, causes fluctuations in the currency market. However, during this period, attention was focused on political statements, while economic data took a back seat.

Today also promises to be fairly calm. There are no significant reports for the Eurozone and the UK in the first half of the day, which should not lead to serious market fluctuations. The wave of expectations and speculation typically surrounding key data releases has given way to silence, allowing markets to reassess recent events and outline a further course amid relative stability. This pause in macroeconomic news offers traders the opportunity to focus on New Year celebrations and the analysis of technical indicators.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data are significantly above or below economists' expectations, the best approach would be to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.1785, which could lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1807 and 1.1840.
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.1754, which could lead to a decline of the euro to around 1.1730 and 1.1706.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.3531, which could lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3561 and 1.3590.
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.3500, which could result in a decline of the pound to around 1.3470 and 1.3442.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 156.30, which could lead to a rise of the dollar to around 156.68 and 157.05.
• Sell on a breakout of level 155.99, which could lead to the dollar falling to around 155.67 and 155.32.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1786, upon a return below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1765 upon returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3524, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3492 upon returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6725, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6695 upon returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3698, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3675 upon returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Monday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair again showed no notable movements on Monday but formed a very important technical signal. Throughout the day, the ascending trend line that has been supporting the growth of the European currency for about three weeks was engaged. The price bounced off the trend line, providing technical grounds for the resumption of the euro's growth. If the euro rises on December 30-31, it is likely the British pound will appreciate as well. In general, there is not much more to analyze from yesterday; the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent, the holidays continue, and volatility is minimal. The euro retains excellent growth prospects and is still very close to the 1.1800-1.1830 range, the upper boundary of the six-month lateral channel 1.1430-1.1800. Therefore, we are almost sure that this area will be surpassed soon, and the global upward trend of 2025 will resume.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Monday. The price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area twice. In the first case, the price moved about 25 pips in the desired direction, while in the second case it moved even less, but the buy position could be left open in anticipation of continued growth on Tuesday. It is worth noting that an important bounce from the trend line was formed on the hourly timeframe, so the upward movement could continue.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon retest the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time we will see a breakout from the six-month lateral channel. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for the US dollar remains very weak, so we expect the pair to rise in the medium-term perspective.

On Tuesday, novice traders can trade in the area of 1.1745-1.1754. A bounce from this area will make long positions relevant with a target of 1.1808, and we have already seen two such bounces yesterday. A consolidation below this area will allow for short positions targeting 1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone or the US. Therefore, we might again expect very weak movements today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Monday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded in a holiday style throughout Monday. Volatility was minimal, and the directional movement of the pair remained sideways all day. With a lack of macroeconomic and fundamental background, traders had nothing to respond to once again. Therefore, technically, an upward trend remains on the hourly timeframe, indicating that after the holidays, we can expect further growth of the British currency. It's worth recalling that global factors favor the British currency over the dollar. However, this week, it is unlikely we will see significant movements. While they are possible, predicting them is extremely difficult. Traders should rely solely on technical factors when making trading decisions.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

Over the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Monday. The price traded sideways all day with minimal volatility. Therefore, no level or area was engaged.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has exited the flat and is moving upward again. We fully support this scenario, as we have repeatedly mentioned. There are no global reasons for the dollar to grow in the medium term, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend in 2025, which could push the pair towards 1.4000 in the coming months.

On Tuesday, novice traders can consider new long positions if the price surpasses the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant with a new bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, targeting 1.3437-1.3446.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be conducted at the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Tuesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the US, and market volatility may remain low. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move prices than during regular times. However, this does not automatically mean that they have the desire to do so.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum for December 29-31, 2025: sell below $2,950 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

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Ethereum is trading around $2,930 going through a technical correction after reaching the strong resistance zone around the 200 EMA and around the top of the downtrend channel formed since early December.

ETH/USD could be at risk of continuing to fall over the next few days if it consolidates below the psychological level of $3,000; it could even reach 1/8 of Murray around $2,812.

Ethereum should consolidate above $2,950 to look for opportunities to take long positions, and then it could reach $3,050 and even reach the 2/8 Murray around $3,125.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so any technical rebound will be seen as an opportunity to open a position on the short-term target around $2,812. ETH could even reach the December 17 low around $2,750.

A break above $3,050 could change the scenario for ETH/USD, and we could expect it to return to the area of $3,125 and $3,375.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 29-31, 2025: buy above $87,700 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Over the weekend, Bitcoin gained strong upward momentum above $87,500, reaching the resistance zone where the 200 EMA is located. This level coincided with the top of the downtrend channel located at $90,150.

After reaching the resistance zone of $90,000, Bitcoin underwent a technical correction and is now below 2/8 Murray, which indicates that it could continue its fall in the coming days.

If Bitcoin recovers in the coming hours and consolidates above $87,700, the outlook could be positive, and we could look for opportunities to open long positions with a target at $89,900 around the 200 EMA.

A sharp break of the downtrend channel formed since early December could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions with targets at 3/8 Murray located around $93,750, and even above this area, Bitcoin could reach the psychological level of $100,000.

If bearish pressure prevails and Bitcoin falls below $87,000, it is likely to continue its decline and could reach $86,200, $84,530, the low of December 18, and finally the 1/8 Murray around $81,250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 29-31, 2025: sell below 1.1780 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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The euro is trading around 1.1772, below 5/8 Murray and below the 21 SMA, with low volume and within a downtrend channel formed since December 23.

If the euro consolidates below 1.1780 in the coming hours, the outlook could remain negative, and we expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 1.1685 in the coming days.

On the contrary, if the euro breaks and consolidates above the downtrend channel, we could expect a continuation of the main trend, and EUR/USD could reach 6/8 Murray around 1.1840.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but we must wait for a break above 1.1780. If EUR/USD consolidates above this zone, it will be seen as an option to take long positions.

Our outlook remains bearish for the coming hours. Hence, at current price levels, we could look for opportunities to sell, with targets at 1.1745, the 4/8 Murray at 1.1718, and finally around 1.1680.

Over the last few weeks, the euro has consolidated around 1.1740 - 1.1770, and strong overbought levels are observed. It is likely that there will be a technical correction in the coming days, and the euro could even reach the psychological level of 1.1500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 29-31, 2025: sell below $4,375 (rebound - 8/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,324, rebounding after reaching the December 18 support zone around $4,312.

Gold could recover some of its losses in the coming hours and could reach 8/8 Murray around $4,375. This level could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling operations.

If gold falls below yesterday's low and consolidates below $4,300, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,260 and potentially accelerate its decline to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,062.

If gold continues to rebound in the coming hours, we could expect strong resistance at $4,375 to take short options with short-term targets around $4,260 and $4,200.

If gold consolidates above $4,375, the outlook could be positive. The price is expected to reach the 21 SMA around $4,467. This level is key as it represents the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

If our strategy is to buy, we could look for opportunities to open long positions above $4,320 with targets at $4,375 and $4,450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the GBP/USD Pair. December 30. Holiday Correction Will Not Hinder

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The GBP/USD currency pair traded rather sluggishly on Monday, with a downward corrective bias. However, we did not expect the market to surge just two days before the New Year and a few days after Christmas. It's a festive pause in the market. Indeed, we observe some price fluctuations, but these fluctuations have no significant impact and are essentially meaningless.

For the British pound, the situation remains rather mundane, especially on the daily timeframe. Over the weekend, we presented articles with a detailed analysis of this chart. On it, the GBP/USD pair has overcome the Ichimoku cloud after a classic three-wave correction that lasted about 4-5 months. Of course, this does not mean that the British currency cannot decline under any circumstances while the dollar rises. Here, fundamental analysis comes to our aid. What global, fundamental reasons does the dollar have to rise? This is the question we have been asking for three-quarters of 2025, and so far, we have not found an answer. Moreover, we believe that even within the second half of 2025, the dollar has "exceeded its plan." The US currency has risen stronger and longer than warranted by fundamentals. For instance, the European currency has found no reason to drop against the US dollar and has been trading flat for the past 6 months.

The British pound had reasons to fall in the second half of 2025, but these reasons were not strong enough to drive a 45% adjustment within the context of a global trend. Recall that the Bank of England, unlike the European Central Bank, continues to ease monetary policy, making the euro's position stronger than that of the British pound. Additionally, confusion arose in the UK regarding the budget for 2026 this autumn. Rumors circulated that Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves would resign, and under pressure from criticism of her budget, she broke down in tears multiple times in Parliament. Ultimately, she raised a whole range of taxes to close the "gaps" in the budget.

It may seem that the pound's decline in response to these events is quite logical, but at the same time, where is the repercussion from the "shutdown," which is nothing less than similar budgetary chaos for 2026 in the US? Only in Britain was it possible to avoid a shutdown of government operations and all public structures, unlike in America. Thus, with the same set of problems, we believe it is the dollar that should have been falling this autumn, especially against the backdrop of renewed Fed monetary easing and the dismal state of the labor market.

Based on this set of factors and analytical conclusions, we believe that the global upward trend will be restored in any case. Therefore, the dollar's minimal growth during the New Year holidays does not bother us at all. Let's consider it a holiday gift.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 61 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average-low." On Tuesday, December 30, we expect the pair to trade within the range between 1.3428 and 1.3550. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times in recent months and has formed numerous bullish divergences, consistently signaling a resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar; therefore, we do not expect the US currency to grow. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term as long as the price stays above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, minor short positions may be considered, targeting 1.3428 and 1.3367 on technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections (in the global context), but for a trend strengthening, it needs signs of an end to the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help to identify the current trend. If both are pointing in one direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (20,0 smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel within which the pair will move over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility figures.
• The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. December 30. The Dollar Clings to a Straw

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The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements throughout Monday. In fact, the pair has been in a complete flat for six months, so it's not surprising that there was no volatility or traders on the market on December 29. The US currency has been gradually appreciating over the past few days; however, this increase is so minimal that it can be considered mere market noise. Moreover, all movements over the last six months could also be seen as market noise since the price has been primarily influenced by technical factors while largely ignoring fundamental and macroeconomic factors.

Essentially, the dollar is currently clinging to 1.1800. This level represents the upper line of the lateral channel at 1.1430-1.1800 on the daily timeframe. As long as the price remains below this level, at least a flat trend is maintained. This level is a lifeline for the dollar. The fact that the dollar had no reason to grow was evident even in December. What positive information did we receive from the US in December? The only thing that comes to mind is the GDP report, which has already been heavily criticized even by those analysts who occasionally praise the dollar.

It has become evident that the American economy's growth is entirely artificial. Explain how an economy can grow when the unemployment rate is rising, people are losing jobs, very few new jobs are being created, industrial production is hardly increasing, retail sales are stagnant, and business activity is declining in most cases.

We have already mentioned that Trump is not concerned about inflation levels. Even if inflation reaches 10%, as long as the economy is growing steadily, the US president would find this acceptable. What matters to Trump is having a solid reason to inform the American people about unprecedented growth. Whether this growth is merely "on paper" is irrelevant. Recall what Trump has said about potential increases in inflation? He believes that most Americans won't notice it, as they'll be "busy counting money in their wallets." After all, with a growing economy, every American should be earning significantly more. However, as we can see, prices in the US are increasing, while Americans are increasingly losing jobs or facing cuts to subsidies and support as Trump seeks to save the budget.

Thus, we have a situation where the American GDP is ostensibly growing at near-record rates, but in practice, such growth is not desired by anyone. Hence, the dollar hasn't seen a surge of optimism, and the market isn't eager to buy the American currency. We are still awaiting the breakout of the upper line of the lateral channel and the resumption of the global uptrend in 2025.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of December 30 stands at 45 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1709 and 1.1799 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is turning upwards, but the flat trend continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice in October and visited the overbought area at the beginning of December. A slight pullback has already been observed.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1719
• S2 – 1.1658
• S3 – 1.1597

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1780
• R2 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is above the moving average line, with an uptrend maintained across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for the sixth consecutive month. The global fundamental backdrop remains highly significant for the market and remains negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has shown occasional weakness, but only within the confines of a lateral channel. There is no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening.

If the price is below the moving average, minor short positions may be considered, targeting 1.1709, based solely on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant, with a target of 1.1830 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe), which has already been reached in practice. Now the flat must conclude.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help to identify the current trend. If both are pointing in one direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (20,0 smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel within which the pair will move over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility figures.
• The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.