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EUR/USD Analysis on December 22, 2025

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The wave count on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has a fairly clear, though rather complex, structure. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure starting from July 1 has taken on a complex and extended form. In my view, the pair has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took on a very non-standard shape. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets may extend as far as the 25th level. The a–b–c–d–e wave sequence looks complete; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect the formation of a new upward wave set. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and now the instrument is in the process of forming wave 3 or C. I expected that within this wave the instrument would rise to the 1.1717 level, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, but this wave is taking on a more extended form, which is very positive, as it may become impulsive. Along with it, the entire upward wave sequence could also turn out to be impulsive.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 50 basis points during Monday, and many economists have already started to panic. Their view is as follows: the market is currently "thin," EUR/USD has been moving sideways for six months, and therefore the New Year and Christmas holidays are a good time to break out of the cursed range. In my opinion, it is too early to sound the alarm. The instrument gained only about 50 points, yet the market has already buried the dollar. Let me remind you that although I myself expect further weakening of the U.S. currency, holidays very rarely pass with active trading. Therefore, the euro's strengthening on Monday amid a complete absence of news is more likely a coincidence.

If we speak about the long term, however, I fully support the idea of a weaker dollar, and many analysts share this view. The dollar has nothing to hold on to, as the Fed will continue easing monetary policy in 2026. After Jerome Powell steps down, the interest rate could fall much lower than the level that allows the regulator to control inflation. Donald Trump does not care what inflation will be in the U.S., and the latest November report also showed that the devil is not as bad as he is painted. Inflation is declining, and the trade war has not led to a significant acceleration in prices. Consequently, the FOMC will continue policy easing against the backdrop of the ongoing crisis in the U.S. labor market. Since the formation of an upward wave set began a month ago, I expect it to continue.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis conducted, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors behind the long-term weakening of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend as far as the 25th figure. The current upward wave set is beginning to gain momentum, and one would like to believe that we are now witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave set that is part of the global wave 5. In this case, growth should be expected with targets near 1.1825 and 1.1926, which correspond to the 200.0% and 261.8% Fibonacci levels.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not the most standard, as corrective waves have different sizes. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller in size than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, this also happens. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear and understandable structures on charts rather than rigidly trying to label every single wave. At the moment, the upward structure raises no doubts.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There is no and can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. "Smart Money." A New Bullish Signal for the Euro

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The EUR/USD pair has indeed bounced off the bullish imbalance 9 zone, giving traders another buy signal. Let me remind you that it all started earlier with bullish imbalances 3 and 8 as well. The pair formed two buy signals, giving traders an excellent opportunity to enter in continuation of the bullish trend at very favorable prices. That long position is now showing a profit of around 200 points. Traders can decide for themselves what to do with it: hold it further or close it with a solid profit. However, I am expecting more upward movement from the euro. Moreover, today—Monday—there is a high probability that another buy signal will form. It has not yet formed, as the daily candle has not closed and price could still decline by the end of the day. Nevertheless, the current chart picture suggests that a reaction to imbalance 9 is still likely.

The chart continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact; a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 has occurred, and a reaction to bullish imbalance 8 has also occurred. Despite a fairly prolonged decline in the euro, the dollar has still failed to break the bullish trend. It had five months to do so and achieved no result. Two weeks ago, a new bullish imbalance 9 was formed, which now acts as another area of interest and a support zone for the bulls. I would also like to remind once again that if bearish patterns or signs of a breakdown of the bullish trend appear, the strategy can be adjusted. But at the moment, nothing points to that.

The news background on Monday was absent, which did not prevent the bulls from launching another attack. I see nothing strange in this, since the trend is bullish and there is no rule stating that trading is not allowed during holidays. If traders find it convenient and profitable to buy the pair now, what is the problem?

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a renewed offensive for the past two months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the confrontation between the U.S. and China (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests against Trump (which have swept across America three times already this year), weakness in the labor market, bleak prospects for the U.S. economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not fully priced in by traders). Thus, in my opinion, further growth of the pair is entirely justified.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. But personally, I consider this yet another temporary calm. In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why no new wave of criticism from Trump has followed. However, this does not mean that these factors no longer create problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not even try to do so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered over. To reach it, the bears would need to push price down by about 360 pips, and they have been unable to overcome a much smaller distance over the past few months. The nearest upward target for the euro remains the bearish imbalance 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

United States

• Change in Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC)
• GDP Change, second estimate for Q3 (13:30 UTC)
• Change in Industrial Production (13:30 UTC)

On December 23, the economic calendar contains three noteworthy entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is likely to be felt in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

In my view, the pair may be approaching the final stage of the bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have attacked more frequently in recent months. Still, I currently see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some degree of growth. Traders also had opportunities to open new trend-following long positions when a reaction to bullish imbalance 3 was received, as well as after the reaction to imbalance 8. The upside target for the euro remains 1.1976. Long positions can be kept open with Stop Loss moved to break-even. In addition, a new bullish imbalance 9 has been formed, which may give traders another bullish signal as early as today.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. "Smart Money." The Pound Is Not Going to Lag Behind the Euro

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The GBP/USD pair has made a return to the bullish imbalance 11 after liquidity was taken from the last bullish swing. That marked the end of all bearish attacks. A second reaction to bullish imbalance 11 followed, thus generating another buy signal as early as last week. In fact, I usually do not take such signals into account. If an imbalance has already been worked off (no matter to what extent), then in the future I am only interested in signals combined with liquidity grabs. This time there was no sweep of bearish liquidity, but what difference does it make if a few days earlier another bullish signal had already formed in the same bullish imbalance 11? Therefore, traders can continue to hold long positions, as I do not observe any clear signs that the bulls' advance is coming to an end.

The current chart setup is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound may be considered complete, but the bullish trend in the euro certainly is not. Thus, the euro can pull the pound upward, although the British currency itself has been rising quite well in recent weeks. The bulls have bounced off bullish imbalance 1, bullish imbalance 10, and bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals have been formed. The market is currently in a pause, even though last week's news background allowed for high trading activity. There are no bearish patterns above for the pound, and nothing is stopping further growth.

On Monday, the UK released its third-quarter GDP report, which showed a flat, neutral reading that exactly matched traders' expectations. Therefore, the bulls' attacks on Monday are unlikely to be related to this report. Apart from that, no major events are expected today, but tomorrow a couple of U.S. reports will be released that may attract traders' attention. These reports will effectively be the last ones this week.

In the United States, the overall news background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline of the U.S. dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite complicated. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only until the end of January. There has been no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be considered positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the most recent labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue a new offensive and return to the yearly highs.

For a bearish trend, the U.S. dollar would need a strong and stable positive news background, which is hard to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need an expensive dollar, as the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline that lasted two months. Too many risk factors continue to hang like dead weight on the dollar. The current bullish trend can be considered complete, as prices fell below two lows (from May 12 and August 1), but what exactly are the bears going to use to push the pound further down? Precisely because I cannot give a clear answer to this question, I do not believe that the decline will continue. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential fall in the pound can be reconsidered.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

United States

• Change in Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC)
• GDP Change, second estimate for Q3 (13:30 UTC)
• Change in Industrial Production (13:30 UTC)

On December 23, the economic calendar contains three entries that are of some interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be present, but mainly in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

For the pound, the picture is beginning to look more pleasing. Three bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can maintain long positions. I see no fundamental reasons for a bearish trend in the near future.

The resumption of the bullish trend could already have been expected from imbalance zone 1. At the moment, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a target for potential growth, I am considering the 1.3725 level. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but for now I see no reason to make any adjustments.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on December 22, 2025

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For GBP/USD, the wave count continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (lower chart), although over the past six months it has taken on a complex and extended form (upper chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4, or any global corrective wave, since it clearly has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal sub-waves. The downward wave structure that started on September 17 took on a five-wave form a–b–c–d–e and has now been completed. At present, the pair is in the stage of forming a new upward wave sequence.

Of course, any wave structure can become more complex and extended at any moment. Even the presumed wave 4, which has been forming for six months, could take on a five-wave form, in which case we would observe a correction for several more months. However, at the current moment, there are good chances for the formation of an upward wave sequence. If this is indeed the case, then the first two waves of this segment have already been completed, and we are now observing the development of wave 3 or C, which is taking on an impulsive form and gives hope for an impulsive character of the current wave sequence.

The GBP/USD pair gained around 70–80 points during Monday, which may have left many market participants puzzled. Last week, when the market was receiving tons and gallons of highly important information every day, the amplitude of price movements was relatively low. A new week begins, the economic calendar looks more like a desert, many countries around the world will celebrate Christmas on Friday, and the British currency suddenly soared. What is happening?

In my view, nothing extraordinary. The current wave count continues to point to an upward trend segment. And what should one expect from an instrument in an upward trend if not growth? Today, the UK released its Q3 GDP report; the figure did not disappoint and matched market expectations. This is a rather weak reason for such active buying of the pound, but I would remind you that demand for the European currency also increased today. Therefore, most likely, the GDP report is not the main reason.

The market became saturated with dollar buying during the "shutdown" and the easing of the Fed's monetary policy, which in itself looked strange. The GBP/USD pair formed an extended corrective wave 4, something few had expected. Therefore, the pair is now rising actively because the wave count requires it. I do not place much faith in the "thin market" theory, but I do allow that the 2026 holidays may bring a few surprises. In fact, the surprises have already begun, as no one expected such strength from the British pound on Monday. A successful breakout of the 1.3450 level, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci, would indicate the market's readiness to continue buying the pound.

General Conclusions

The wave picture of GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a–b–c–d–e within wave C of wave 4 appears complete, as does wave 4 as a whole. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its development with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I expected the formation of wave 3 or C with targets located near 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C is still under construction, and at present we are seeing a fourth attempt to break through the 1.3450 level, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

The higher-timeframe wave count looks almost ideal, even though wave 4 moved beyond the high of wave 1. However, I would remind you that ideal wave counts exist only in textbooks. In practice, everything is much more complex. At the moment, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the upward trend segment.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There is no and can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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At the start of the new week, gold is setting a new all-time high amid rising geopolitical tensions, which have drawn investors toward safe-haven assets. At the time of writing, the metal is trading at around $4,437 per ounce, surpassing $4,381, the previous all-time high.

The precious metal is posting its strongest annual performance since 1979, gaining nearly 68% year-to-date. This rally is driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, weakness in the U.S. dollar, record inflows into gold-backed ETFs, and steady gold purchases by central banks.

In the near term, the market is anticipating further easing of the Fed's monetary policy, as key indicators point to easing inflationary pressures and weakness in the U.S. labor market. Lower interest rates typically support assets such as gold.

Geopolitics remains a key focus, continuing to amplify market concerns. In the Middle East, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated again. There is speculation that Tehran may use large-scale military exercises to disguise potential offensive actions. Israeli authorities have warned that Iran may also be restoring key uranium enrichment facilities that were struck by the United States in June. In this context, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to brief U.S. President Donald Trump on possible options for renewed strikes on Iran's missile program.

In addition, relations between the United States and Venezuela are deteriorating. U.S. forces intercepted and pursued another oil tanker near Venezuelan waters. This followed the seizure of two vessels last week and came after Trump's order to impose a blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers entering and leaving the country.

Meanwhile, peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine, held under U.S. leadership in Miami, delivered mixed results. Representatives from the United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia were present. Steve Witkoff described the meeting as productive and constructive, particularly regarding the development of a 20-point peace plan and security guarantees for Kyiv. However, no significant progress has been achieved so far, as Moscow continues to insist on its territorial demands.

Regarding U.S. monetary policy, markets currently expect two Fed rate cuts in 2026. Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials remain divided over the need for additional monetary easing.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that no further rate adjustments are necessary in the coming months given persistent inflationary pressures, and that current interest rates are likely to remain in place until spring.

From a technical perspective, gold continues to set new all-time highs. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought territory, although its line is pointing upward, indicating strong bullish momentum. At the same time, the overbought condition suggests that a period of consolidation is likely in the near future. In the event of a correction, the pair is expected to find support near $4,380, the former all-time high.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.43 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator had already moved a long way upward from the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. A second test of this price level allowed Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar to be implemented, which resulted in the pair falling by only 7 points.

In the second half of the day, no U.S. economic data releases are expected, which gives buyers an opportunity to try to extend the upward move—especially given the cautious stance of the Bank of Japan. However, one should also take into account unscheduled speeches by representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could quickly change the current sideways nature of the market. Market sentiment may also be fueled by rumors circulating about future actions by the Bank of Japan. It is important to understand that currency markets are complex and highly changeable mechanisms, where forecasts and expectations have just as much influence as actual economic indicators. Still, the absence of negative news from the United States undoubtedly provides more favorable conditions for the U.S. dollar, which is currently dominating the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 157.58 (the thin green line on the chart), with a growth target at 157.93 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 157.93, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from this level). Further growth of the pair can be expected in continuation of the trend.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.32 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 157.58 and 157.93 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after an update of the 157.32 level (the thin red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 157.04 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.58 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 157.32 and 157.04 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3405 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3425.

Encouraged by data on the growth of the United Kingdom's GDP and a significant inflow of capital, the British pound demonstrated further strengthening against the U.S. dollar. Macroeconomic indicators instilled confidence in investors, allowing GBP to strengthen its positions. The increase in investment volumes had a substantial impact on market sentiment. This is a sign of entrepreneurs' belief in the country's development prospects and additionally stimulates economic progress. Moreover, the growth of investment flows contributes to the creation of new jobs and higher wages, which positively affects consumer purchasing power and overall economic activity.

Today, there will be no U.S. statistics released in the second half of the day, so bulls will have every chance to update the monthly high. However, it is worth remembering that even without official data, the market often reacts to indirect signals and sentiment. Speculative moods can be fueled by rumors, analytical forecasts, or simply the inertia of previous trading sessions. It is important to remember that currency markets are a complex and dynamic instrument where expectations and forecasts play no less important a role than actual figures. Nevertheless, the absence of negative news from the U.S. certainly creates a more favorable environment for buyers of risk assets.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3439 (the thin green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.3469 (the thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 1.3469, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from this level). Today, further growth of the pound can be expected within the framework of the morning trend. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3416 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3439 and 1.3469 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after an update of the 1.3416 level (the thin red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3373 level, where I will exit short positions and also immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pound may return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3439 price level at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3416 and 1.3373 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be extremely cautious when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Trading Advice for the Euro

The test of the 1.1726 price level occurred at a moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 10 points.

The limited flow of key macroeconomic reports from the euro area did not allow the euro to rise properly against the dollar in the first half of the day. In conditions of an information shortage, when there is not enough data for analysis, speculative sentiment dominates, which is clearly insufficient to move the market significantly.

Unfortunately, the second half of the day also contains no important economic events. However, it should be remembered that the absence of macroeconomic releases does not guarantee movement in one direction. In conditions of limited information, short-term speculation can significantly affect the current upward trend. For this reason, even with the currently favorable buying background, traders focused on EUR/USD growth need to be cautious and use risk management tools.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches the area around 1.1745 (the green line on the chart), with a growth target at 1.1772. At 1.1772, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected only within a modest upward trend.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1727 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal of the market upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1745 and 1.1772 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1727 level (the red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.1704 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1745 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal of the market downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1727 and 1.1704 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the approximate price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the approximate price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be locked in manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GOLD. The Price of Gold May Fall After a Local Rise

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After a prolonged period of consolidation, the price of gold surged sharply on the back of weak inflation data in the United States, increasing the likelihood of a more active Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle in the new year 2026. However, this rise may prove to be limited due to the ongoing negotiation process between Washington and Moscow aimed at resolving the Ukrainian crisis.

From a technical perspective, the price may lose its upward momentum, as indicated by the behavior of oscillators on this time frame.

Technical Picture and Trading Idea:

The price is trading above the upper Bollinger Band and above the SMA 5 and SMA 14, which are still supporting the upward trend. The RSI is turning downward from the overbought zone, while the Stochastic indicators have entered this zone.

The price of gold may rise toward the 4452.30 level, from which sell positions should be considered, with a potential decline toward 4351.00. A possible entry point for selling is the 4443.25 level.

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Trading Signals for GOLD for December 22-25, 2025: sell below $4,435 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,419 with a strong upward movement after the opening of this week's session. Gold is approaching the weekly resistance level of $4,435. Hence, after this strong upward momentum, there will be a sharp technical correction in the coming days.

Gold has strong resistance around $4,430-4,435, which could act as a barrier, so we could expect a technical correction in the coming hours.

If the price is rejected in this area, it will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with a target at the 8/8 Murray around $4,375. Finally, we expect the price to cover the gap left at the close of last week around $4,339.

A consolidation above $4,430 could mean strong upward momentum for gold. Therefore, it could reach +1/8 Murray around $4,531 in the short term.

The Eagle indicator is showing signs of extreme overbought conditions, so we expect a technical correction in the coming hours towards the psychological level of $4,400.

Since the opening of trading this week, gold has gained more than $90 from that initial price and is now facing the possibility of a technical correction. We must be cautious about it. Gold could return to the support level of $3,330 in the coming days.

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Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 22-25, 2025: buy above $88,500 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,214 above the 21 SMA and above the 2/8 Murray ($87,500) after consolidating in this zone over the weekend.

Bitcoin resumed its bullish cycle and could now reach the 200 EMA around $91,191 in the coming hours. BTC could eventually reach the 3/8 Murray around $93,750.

If Bitcoin falls below $88,458, where the 21 SMA is located. At the same time, we also see the beginning of an upward trend channel. If it is also broken, then we could expect Bitcoin to drop to $87,500. It could even return to $84,560.

According to the H4 chart, the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback in the coming hours towards $88,450 or $87,500 could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with a target around $93,750 in the coming days.

On the chart, we can see that Bitcoin has decisively broken the downtrend channel. The odds are that it will reach $93,000 and could even return to the psychological level of $100,000.

If the scenario changes and the price falls below $87,500, it could alter the outlook for Bitcoin in the coming days.

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Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 22-25, 2025: buy above 1.1700 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1746, above the 4/8 Murray and above the 21 SMA with a bullish bias after consolidating above the 1.1700 level. This zone enabled the euro to resume its bullish cycle. Therefore, EUR/USD is expected to reach the 5/8 Murray around 1.1779 in the coming days. The instrument could even reach the 6/8 Murray around 1.1840.

On the contrary, if the bearish pressure prevails and the euro falls below the 4/8 Murray and consolidates below 1.1700, the outlook could be negative, and we could expect EUR/USD to reach the 3/8 Murray at 1.1656. Eventually, the price could reach the key level of the 2/8 Murray around 1.1596.

According to the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is showing positive signs, so EUR/USD is expected to reach 1.1840 in the coming days.

The outlook for the euro could change if EUR/USD falls below 1.1700. In this case, we could expect a strong technical correction.

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Trading Signals for ETHEREUM for December 22-25, 2025: buy above $2,990 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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ETH/USD is trading around 3,053 during an upward cycle after breaking the downward trend channel formed since December 10. In the chart, we can see that Ether is approaching strong resistance around the 200 EMA and around the 2/8 Murray located at 3,125.

If ETH/USD encounters rejection around this strong resistance zone in the coming hours, it could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions, with a target at 2,990, where the 21 SMA is located. We could even expect the instrument to reach the 1/8 Murray around 2,812.

On the contrary, a sharp break and consolidation above 3,125 could be seen as a positive signal for the short term, and Ethereum could reach 3/8 Murray around 3,437.

If the downward pressure prevails and ETH/USD falls below the psychological level of 3,000, we could expect its downward cycle to resume, and the second leading cryptocurrency could reach 1/8 Murray located at 2,812.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions in the coming days with a target at 3,437.

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US Market News Digest for December 22

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US market balances between optimism and bubble fears

The American stock market continues to grapple with uncertainty, swinging between growth expectations and concerns of a market correction. Bulls are betting on the traditional Christmas rally, which historically supports stock prices at the year's end. The decline in inflation, anticipated easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and strong corporate earnings create a favorable backdrop for the continued growth of the S&P 500 and other key indices.

However, bears warn of increasing risks, particularly in the technology sector, where company valuations appear increasingly inflated. Analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the rally in US stocks could continue until 2026 but caution that profit growth may slow as early as next year. This raises concerns about increased volatility and a more selective approach from investors regarding asset allocation. Follow the link for more details.

Bitcoin under pressure, at risk of further decline

Bitcoin continues to trade amid heightened uncertainty, showing weak momentum due to profit-taking and capital outflows from investment funds. There is a risk that the price could fall below the $85,000 level, which could trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs and increase pressure from short-term investors. A further factor contributing to this instability is a decline in interest from institutional market participants.

At the same time, long-term inflation expectations still support interest in cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset. Temporary support for Bitcoin is provided by the growth in the US stock market, particularly the S&P 500 index. From a technical analysis standpoint, BTC/USD remains within a limited trading range of $85,000 to $94,000, indicating a phase of consolidation before a potential impulsive move. Follow the link for more details.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers convenient and advantageous conditions for trading stocks, stock indices, and derivative financial instruments, enabling traders to effectively capitalize on current market fluctuations and implement various trading strategies.

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US Congress prepares tax haven for cryptocurrency

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While Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing signs of life as they continue their recovery, which began at the end of last week, the US Congress is preparing a bill that will create a tax haven for cryptocurrencies.

Key ideas in the bill include provisions for stablecoins: transactions involving regulated stablecoins are expected to be exempt from capital gains tax. For staking and mining, it is planned to allow a five-year deferral of tax on rewards, after which income would be taxed at market value. Additionally, there is an expectation for the development of uniform tax rules for cryptocurrencies, similar to those applied to stocks and commodities, without classifying them as securities.

Perhaps most interesting is the proposed legislation aimed at combating wash trading in digital assets, which many pseudo-companies engaging in the issuance and listing of "shitcoins" on cryptocurrency exchanges are currently guilty of.

This initiative from Congress could serve as a powerful incentive for further development of the crypto industry in the US. Creating a tax haven for stablecoins and exempting transactions from capital gains tax would undoubtedly attract investors and increase trading volumes. The deferral of tax on rewards from staking and mining would also be an appealing factor for those engaged in cryptocurrency extraction and storage.

The unification of tax rules applied to cryptocurrencies will simplify the taxation process and make it more understandable for all market participants. It is important to note that not recognizing cryptocurrencies as securities will relieve them of additional regulatory burdens, which will also positively impact the industry's growth.

The fight against wash trading is aimed at enhancing transparency and integrity in the digital asset market. Legislative actions to curb such manipulations will protect investors from fraudulent schemes and strengthen trust in cryptocurrencies overall. This is particularly important in light of the so-called "shitcoins," which are often used in such manipulations.

Overall, the proposed bill represents a step in the right direction. It aims to create a favorable environment for the development of the cryptocurrency industry in the US, attract investments, stimulate innovation, and protect investors.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $89,600 level, which opens a direct path to $92,300, and from there it's just a step away to $95,000. The furthest target will be the peak around $95,900, with a breakout at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $87,400 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $85,500, with the furthest target being the $83,220 region.

As for the technical picture of Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $3,105 level opens a direct road to $3,233. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,349, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $2,997 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $2,858, with the furthest target being the $2,763 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

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Bitcoin walks tightrope

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Bitcoin continues to tread along the edge of an abyss. According to estimates from STS Digital, a drop in BTC/USD below $85,000 may act as a gravitational pull. Positions totaling $1.4 billion are concentrated in this area. Their closure could trigger an avalanche and send quotes considerably lower. Furthermore, the cryptocurrency is poised to close the October-December period with its worst performance since the second quarter of 2022, when the collapse of TerraUSD and Three Arrows Capital shook the entire industry and led to the crypto winter.

2025 has been an unfortunate year for hedge funds dealing with digital assets. Those who focused on profiting from large fluctuations in BTC/USD have lost about 2.5%. This marks the worst result since the infamous 2022. Financial institutions with long-term perspectives and positions in cryptocurrency saw a 23% decline. Only market-neutral funds, which capture profits from small fluctuations of the token, have managed to gain 14.4%.

Performance of hedge funds working with cryptocurrency

The investor outlook for 2026 is markedly different. Bears are worried about a repeat of the crypto winter. Bulls argue that Bitcoin has become mainstream, and even a 30% drop in BTC/USD from record highs hasn't changed that. The use of ETFs, crypto-friendly regulatory bodies, and the entry of major institutional investors into the market have made it more reliable and stable.

Yes, volatility leaves much to be desired. However, recently, the 30-day volatility indicator has been steadily rising, instilling hope that better times for cryptocurrency may return—times when Bitcoin was simply bought because it was rising.

Dynamics of Bitcoin volatility

Currently, the digital asset is facing problems with insufficient demand amid rapidly increasing supply. According to CryptoQuant, the last month saw the largest selling off of tokens from dormant accounts in the last five years. Since 2023, 1.6 million coins worth $140 billion have entered circulation.

Specialized exchange-traded funds are experiencing capital outflows, while crypto custodians have fallen into the trap of excessively low prices. They bought Bitcoin at higher prices and now face a difficult choice: continue buying in hopes of boosting the price or pause their activities and risk losing clients.

If it weren't for the US stock indices gearing up for a Christmas rally, the situation for cryptocurrency would be even worse. However, the growth of the S&P 500 has allowed it to continue consolidating. How long will this last?

From a technical viewpoint, the daily chart for BTC/USD shows the formation of a shelf within a "Spike and Shelf" pattern. Bitcoin has stagnated in a trading range of $85,000 to $94,000. Only a breakout from this range will clarify the situation. It makes sense to set pending orders to buy the digital asset at the upper channel border of $94,000 and to sell at the lower border of $85,000.

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EUR/USD Forecast on December 22, 2025

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The EUR/USD pair traded sideways on Friday, paying no attention to the 38.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1718, which had previously acted as a strong support level three times. Since traders have begun to ignore chart levels and their activity on Friday dropped to zero, I assume that the market has started actively preparing for the holidays. In this case, we are unlikely to see any significant moves before the end of the year. And if we do see any, forecasting them will be very difficult.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks bulls have regained confidence and attacked with renewed strength. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy supports further euro growth, and the ECB will not create any problems for the single currency in the near future.

On Friday, even judging by the charts, one could confidently say that there was no news background. In fact, that was not entirely the case, but what difference does it make whether there was news or not if the market showed no desire to trade? In reality, Germany released its consumer confidence index, while the U.S. published new home sales data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Both U.S. reports came in worse than traders had expected, but the bulls did not even try to use this information for a new attack. Thus, neither technically nor fundamentally are there grounds at the moment to expect a strong move up or down. This week, interesting events will occur only on Tuesday, after which the market will switch into Christmas preparation mode. Next week is New Year's.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after a bearish divergence formed on the CCI indicator. As a result, the decline may continue for some time toward the support level at 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this zone would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 0.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the zone would increase the probability of a further decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268,000, while short positions amount to 129,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Then the shutdown began, and now we see the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy, such as the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation in May of next year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On December 22, the economic calendar contains no interesting entries, and traders can already begin preparing for the New Year. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sell positions are possible if prices consolidate below the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1656. Buy positions can be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level with targets at 1.1795–1.1802. However, today traders may once again ignore the 1.1718 level.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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GBP/USD Forecast on December 22, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the support level at 1.3352–1.3362, reversed in favor of the pound, and began a move higher toward the 1.3425 level. However, overall the pair has been trading in a sideways range for more than a week. Thus, there is a high probability of another rebound from the 1.3425 level and a return to the 1.3352–1.3362 level. A consolidation of the pair below this level would make it possible to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level at 61.8% – 1.3294.

The wave structure turned "bearish" last week. The most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break the previous high. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the U.S. news background also leaves much to be desired. A week before the New Year, a consensus and balance have formed between bulls and bears.

On Friday, the news background for GBP/USD was supplemented by the retail sales report. It turned out that sales fell by 0.1% m/m and rose by 0.6% y/y in November. These figures were worse than market expectations, yet the pound still managed to show slight growth during the day. I believe this growth was due solely to the technical rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level and nothing else. As I have already said, the pair is trading sideways, so the boundaries of this range are of key importance. Today, the UK will release its GDP report for the third quarter, but traders are unlikely to be able to leave the 1.3352–1.3425 range. The UK economy very rarely provides support for the bulls. The only notable events this week will be on Tuesday. The year is ending in a sideways range for the pound; traders are tired and are postponing the opening of long-term positions until next year. Therefore, I expect only weak market movements until the end of the current year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair made its third rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline toward the 1.3140 level. A consolidation above the 1.3435 level would favor the British pound and allow expectations of further growth toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions rose by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears have dominated since early December, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Change in GDP volumes in the third quarter (07:00 UTC).

On December 22, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is not of particular interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be extremely weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sell positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. The target has been reached. New sell positions can be considered after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level with a target at 1.3294. I recommended buy positions on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470. Today, these trades can remain open.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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Forex forecast 22/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The ECB Does Not Intend to Intervene in Current Policy

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The euro is feeling quite comfortable as the European Central Bank no longer intends to interfere with the current monetary policy. Last week, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said it is still too early to talk about how borrowing costs might change going forward. Speaking the day after the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the fourth consecutive time, the Estonian official said there is currently no need for adjustments, but did not go into details.

"If you ask what will happen in six months or later, honestly, it is too early to speculate," Muller said.

This stance sends a clear signal to the market: the regulator is satisfied with the current monetary policy and sees no need for sharp changes, at least in the near term. Such predictability is generally viewed positively by investors seeking stability and clear guidance amid global economic uncertainty.

"One can imagine scenarios developing in both directions. If the euro area economy performs worse and inflation continues to slow, then there may be grounds for further interest rate cuts. But one can also imagine the opposite situation," the policymaker said.

The impact of Muller's remarks is reinforced by the overall macroeconomic picture in the euro area. Inflation remains around the ECB's target level and shows signs of easing, allowing the regulator to maintain a wait-and-see approach. At the same time, economic growth in the region remains modest, which prevents the ECB from tightening policy for fear of exacerbating the situation.

As a result, the euro enjoys relative stability, supported by the absence of expectations for any radical steps from the ECB. However, the long-term outlook for the European currency will largely depend on further inflation dynamics and economic growth, as well as the geopolitical situation in the region and globally.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1730 level. Only this would allow a move toward testing 1.1750. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1770, but doing so without support from major players would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1805. In the event of a decline, only around the 1.1705 level do I expect any serious action from large buyers. If there is no activity there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Prepares for Further Rate Cuts

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The U.S. dollar weakened and gold rose after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supported further interest rate cuts, saying that this would help return central bank policy to a neutral level. At the same time, he noted that there is no need to rush such a move for now.

Describing a scenario in which inflation continues to slow through 2026, Waller said that monetary policy settings are currently about 100 basis points above the neutral level. "Since inflation is still high, we can afford to be patient—there is no need to cut rates quickly," Waller said. "But we should gradually push policy toward the neutral level."

Investors interpreted Waller's comments as a signal that the Fed may maintain a dovish stance in the future. Although Waller emphasized the lack of urgency in cutting rates, his acknowledgment that current monetary policy remains in restrictive territory strengthened market expectations for future easing.

These remarks were Waller's first since Fed officials cut interest rates for the third consecutive time last week. However, the decision was not unanimous. There were three dissenters, highlighting deep divisions within the committee. Policymakers also subtly changed the wording of their statement, hinting at greater uncertainty over when they might cut rates again.

Waller, whose candidacy is being considered for the position of the next Fed chair, is now taking a more dovish stance—one that Trump is demanding from the future head of the Federal Reserve.

"Absolutely. I have devoted 20 years of my life to working on the issue of central bank stability and why it matters. There is no doubt that I have many proposals for developing and maintaining the stability of our economy," Waller said.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1730 level. Only this would allow a move toward testing 1.1750. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1770, but doing so without support from major players would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1805. In the event of a decline, only around the 1.1705 level do I expect any serious action from large buyers. If there is no activity there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3405. Only this would allow a move toward 1.3425, above which a breakout would be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3450 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of the 1.3360 level. If they succeed, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3340 low, with the prospect of a further move toward 1.3310.

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Market at crossroads: Santa Claus rally vs. tech bubble fears

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There is a lot of noise for little gain. The S&P 500 is fluctuating erratically. Bulls are counting on FOMO, or fear of missing out, and the traditional year-end Christmas rally. Meanwhile, bears are betting on a bubble in technology companies characterized by inflated fundamental valuations and their failure to generate profits commensurate with colossal investments. As a result, the broad stock index has come close to record highs, but that final step is often the toughest.

According to Goldman Sachs, the US stock market rally is expected to continue into 2026. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and solid corporate earnings should prolong the economic cycle and support risk assets. However, the bank cautions that the upcoming year may not be as fruitful as the previous one. The easing of monetary policy will be uneven, and high fundamental valuations of S&P 500 companies may deter investors from pouring money into US equities. Nonetheless, capital continues to flow in abundance.

Dynamics of Capital Flows into US Stocks

In 2025, approximately 45% of S&P 500's earnings were generated by the Magnificent Seven companies. However, rising competition and doubts about the efficacy of investments in artificial intelligence technology are leading to a rotation in stocks. Shares of NVIDIA and other giants are being replaced with bank, energy, and other sector stocks. This shift is further exacerbated by concerns over stretched price-to-forward earnings ratios, raising fears of a potential bubble. This scenario mirrors the dot-com crisis, indicating that a crash might well occur again.

History has a way of repeating itself—both for better and for worse. Typically, around the transition from one year to another, the S&P 500 tends to rise. This rally is commonly referred to as the Christmas rally or the Santa Claus rally. Although the broad index missed this pattern in 2024-2025, why not see the tradition manifest in December-January this time?

S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio Dynamics

There are substantial doubts. Investors are skeptical regarding the slowdown in US inflation in November, attributing it to the government shutdown. The futures market shows less than a 20% probability of a federal funds rate cut in January, with expectations shifting to March. Additionally, FOMC officials characterize the last three acts of monetary expansion as preventive measures and intend to remain on the sidelines at least until spring. This perspective is reflected by the presidents of the New York Fed, John Williams, and the Cleveland Fed, Beth Hammack.

Thus, if the upward trend in the S&P 500 continues into the fourth year of a bull market, the scale of this rally would be incomparable to prior periods.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the broad market index has formed a doji candle, with the price breaking above the moving averages. Long positions established above 6,750 in the S&P 500 should be held and gradually increased. Target levels are set at 6,980 and 7,100, where important pivot levels are located.

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Gold, Silver, and Platinum Skyrocket

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Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have risen by more than 1.5%, surpassing the previous record of $4,413 per ounce set in October of this year.

Traders are once again betting that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs twice in 2026 following a series of economic data released last week. Lowering interest rates typically benefits the prices of non-yielding precious metals.

The rise in gold prices is also supported by sustained demand from central banks, particularly in developing countries. Central banks are seeking to diversify their reserves amid fears of currency devaluation and global economic instability.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in recent weeks has further increased the attractiveness of gold and silver as safe-haven assets. The U.S. has intensified its oil blockade against Venezuela, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government, while Ukraine has, for the first time, attacked a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean.

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that precious metals are on track for their strongest annual growth. Trump's aggressive efforts to reform global trade, along with his threats to the independence of the U.S. central bank, have further fueled the rapid price increases this year.

Platinum has risen for the eighth consecutive session and has surpassed the $2,000 mark for the first time since 2008. Platinum, which has increased by about 125% this year, has been growing rapidly, keeping pace with silver.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to surpass the nearest resistance at $4,432. This will enable targeting $4,481, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be the area around $4,531. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over $4,372. If this is achieved, a range breakout could deal a severe blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,304, with the potential to reach $4,249.

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Positive news from US boosts cryptocurrency market

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Last Friday, it was announced that the US Senate approved two pro-cryptocurrency candidates nominated by Donald Trump for key positions, which had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, leading to noticeable gains over the weekend.

Michael Selig was appointed as the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Selirg previously worked at the SEC, focusing on crypto policy and market structure. He considers most crypto assets to be commodities rather than securities and supports stablecoins, tokenization, and spot markets.

Travis Hill has become the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). He is currently serving as the acting head of the agency and has publicly opposed the debanking of crypto companies. He has also allowed banks to work with cryptocurrencies without separate regulatory approval, advocating for a banking model for regulating stablecoins.

The appointments of Selirg and Hill indicate a potential easing of regulation in the US cryptocurrency industry. Previously, crypto companies faced significant pressure from the SEC and other agencies, which hindered industry development. With more lenient regulators now in place, companies will have greater flexibility for innovation and growth.

However, it is important to remember that much work remains to be done in developing clear and understandable rules that consider both industry interests and investor protection. Ensuring regulations do not stifle innovation while providing safeguards against fraud and abuse is crucial. Nonetheless, the appointments of Selirg and Hill are undoubtedly a positive signal for the crypto community. Their arrival could mark the beginning of a new era in regulating cryptocurrencies in the US, emphasizing the creation of a favorable environment for innovation and investment rather than restrictions and bans.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $89,600 level, which opens a direct path to $92,300; from there, it would not be far to $95,000. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $95,900, and surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the $87,400 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,500, with the further target being the $83,220 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,105 level opens a direct path to $3,233. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,349, and exceeding this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $2,997 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $2,858, with the further target being the $2,763 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22. Review of Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.49 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was moving sharply above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda. The politician stated that further central bank rate hikes are unlikely in the near future, which greatly weakened buyers' positions. The market reacted instantly. The dollar surged, breaking through important resistance levels, while the yen plummeted, reaching multi-month lows against the U.S. currency. Investors, who had previously hoped for a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, began actively offloading yen in favor of more attractive dollar-denominated assets. Ueda's statement was a surprise to many analysts, given Japan's rising inflation. The market expected the BOJ to at least continue signaling the potential for further near-term rate hikes to curb inflation and support the yen. Now, after Ueda's comments, the outlook for the yen appears quite bleak. If the BOJ does not change its stance, the yen may continue to weaken, which could lead to further inflation increases due to rising import costs. This will add additional pressure on the Japanese economy, which is already facing difficulties.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 157.43 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 157.93 (thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 157.93, I intend to exit my long positions and sell immediately on a pullback, anticipating a 30-35-pip move back from the entry point. It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.24 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 157.43 and 157.93 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.24 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.77 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.43 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 157.24 and 156.77 can be expected.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions cautiously. It is advisable to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as in the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.