Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

What explains yen's lack of reaction to significant announcements

.

The Japanese yen continues to gradually lose ground against the US dollar, even in light of the differing monetary policies anticipated from central banks in the near future. This indicates that the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan is already factored into the yen's value, and much will depend on new forecasts. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the long battle against deflation in the country, which has persisted for decades, is nearly over.

Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank is approaching its inflation target, reinforcing signals that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week. Ueda mentioned in an interview that they are getting closer to achieving stable inflation of 2%.

Ueda's comments came amidst increased expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. There are concerns that such a rate hike could negatively impact Japan's economic growth, especially given its aging population and declining productivity. Ueda acknowledged these risks but emphasized that maintaining price stability is a top priority. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will act cautiously and gradually to avoid destabilizing the economy.

In his interview, Ueda suggested that the bank is unlikely to stay at its current level, as it continues to adjust its support for the economy. Ueda stated that the bank would continue to gradually adjust its monetary policy as they work towards achieving stable inflation of 2% and returning the policy rate to its natural level, regardless of where that may be.

Currently, traders are assessing the likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting to be approximately 88%, based on overnight swaps. The key focus will be on how Ueda defines the future trajectory of interest rates and his views on the neutral rate at which borrowing costs neither stimulate nor restrain the economy.

Ueda also reiterated the Bank of Japan's position that it is closely monitoring the impact of exchange rates on inflation. Last month, the yen hit 157.89 against the dollar, its lowest level since January, raising concerns about additional inflationary pressures. Ueda remarked that they strive to avoid making direct comments on fiscal policy, as that responsibility lies with the government.

Regarding the current technical picture for USD/JPY, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 156.20. Achieving this will allow them to target 156.60, above which a breakthrough may prove challenging. The ultimate goal will be around 157.05. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to gain control at the 156.00 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push USD/JPY down to a low of 155.70, with the potential for a move towards 155.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Central Bank of Argentina moves towards cryptocurrencies

.

As Bitcoin prepares for a significant movement that could occur following tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting—an outcome that may displease many buyers—Argentina is considering allowing domestic banks to trade digital assets and offer cryptocurrency-related services, a move that could accelerate cryptocurrency adoption in the country.

The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic recently announced that it is working on changes to its current regulations, which currently prohibit banking institutions from engaging in activities related to digital assets.

If implemented, this step would represent a substantial shift in Argentina's approach to cryptocurrencies. Up until now, regulations in this area have been quite stringent, with direct access to digital assets restricted for banks. Allowing banks to provide cryptocurrency-related services would create new opportunities for investors and users, as well as enhance the infrastructure for trading digital assets.

Several factors are expected to influence the central bank's decision. First, there is the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies among the population. Second, there is the desire to stimulate economic growth through innovation in the financial sector. Third, Argentina aims to align itself with global trends in the regulation of digital assets. For banks, this would open new prospects, enabling them to expand their service offerings, attract new clients, and increase profitability. Furthermore, the involvement of banks in the cryptocurrency space could enhance trust in digital assets and promote their wider acceptance.

It is anticipated that these new changes may be approved as early as April 2026. According to media reports, local experts and exchanges have stated that granting local banks access to cryptocurrencies and digital asset services could signal the dawn of a new era of widespread adoption in the region.

It is worth noting that Brazil, the leading country in Latin America in terms of cryptocurrency volume, recently expanded its financial regulations to include the digital asset industry. The new rules require cryptocurrency service providers to obtain permission from the central bank to operate.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $90,300 level, which would open a direct path to $92,800; from there, it would be a short distance to $95,000. The ultimate target will be the peak around $97,300, and a breakthrough above this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers around the $88,200 level. A return below this area could quickly push BTC down towards $85,800, with the further target being the region of $83,200.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,126 level opens a direct path to $3,233. The ultimate goal will be the peak around $3,362, and surpassing this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are anticipated at the $3,023 level. A drop below this area could rapidly push ETH down to around $2,924, with the ultimate target being around $2,858.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.34 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

The dollar continued to gain against the yen for the third consecutive day, despite the Bank of Japan seemingly planning to raise interest rates, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower them. However, since this scenario has been anticipated since the end of last month, there is nothing surprising in the upward correction of the USD/JPY pair.

Later today, attention will focus on the ADP weekly employment change report, which is considered a leading indicator ahead of the official U.S. Department of Labor employment data. However, it's important to consider methodological differences between ADP and the Department of Labor, treating ADP data as indicative rather than exact—especially given their high volatility due to the short period.

Additionally, the JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released, providing a more detailed picture of the labor market. It includes data on job openings, hires, layoffs, and voluntary quits. A high number of job openings can signal a shortage of qualified personnel and indicate that companies are confident in growth, actively expanding their workforce. Overall, strong data may trigger another wave of USD/JPY gains.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.25 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 156.73 (thicker green line). Near 156.73, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move). A rise in the pair today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.96 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 156.25 and 156.73 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 155.96 level is broken (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. data are very weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.25 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 155.96 and 155.50 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3337 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by just over 15 points.

Pound buyers became active despite the lack of significant fundamental data from the UK. Traders are betting that the regulator will be forced to maintain a wait-and-see stance on interest rates, despite concerns about slowing UK GDP growth, in order to keep persistently high inflation under control.

In the second half of the day, we expect the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as a new economic indicator — the weekly ADP employment change. In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The NFIB index provides insight into the sentiment of small business owners, a vital component of the U.S. economy and a key influence on its overall health. A rise in the index often supports the U.S. dollar.

The weekly ADP employment change is viewed as an early signal ahead of the official U.S. Department of Labor employment report. Weekly ADP data cover a significant portion of the private sector but are far more volatile than the monthly report. The JOLTS report provides deeper insight into labor market dynamics than just job creation figures, including data on job openings, hires, layoffs, and quits. A high number of job openings may indicate a shortage of qualified workers and signal that companies are confident in growth and actively expanding. Strong data tend to benefit the U.S. dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3348 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3374 (thicker green line). Near 1.3374, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move in reverse). A rise in the pound today can be expected only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3323 price while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3348 and 1.3374 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.3323 (red line on the chart) is broken, which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3285, where I will exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return today if U.S. data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3348 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3323 and 1.3285 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1640 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1640 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which triggered Scenario #2 for buying euros and resulted in a 15-point rise — nearly the entire intraday volatility.

Positive German trade data supported the euro in the first half of the day, as the figures exceeded analysts' preliminary forecasts. According to Destatis, Germany's trade surplus increased in October, reflecting the stability of the German economy and its export capabilities.

Later today, market participants will focus on the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. This indicator historically influences investor sentiment and serves as a leading signal for assessing the country's economic health. Also today, the weekly ADP employment change report will be published. The report shows the average change in U.S. private-sector employment over the past four weeks. These data are released weekly on Tuesdays, roughly two weeks after collection. The indicators are more volatile than the monthly ADP employment reports. Recall that weekly ADP reports began being published in October 2025. Higher-than-expected readings tend to support the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1658 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1691. At 1.1691, I plan to exit the market, and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1635 price at a moment when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. You may expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1658 and 1.1691.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1605, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1658 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1635 and 1.1605 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold conditions.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

.

This Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair is attracting buyers after yesterday's mixed price action, holding steadily above the key 1.3300 round level. However, no aggressive buying is observed, as traders prefer to remain cautious ahead of this week's major central bank events.

On Wednesday, at the end of its two-day meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision. It is widely expected that the Fed will lower borrowing costs once again. This outlook is limiting the U.S. dollar's recent recovery from December lows and is pushing GBP/USD higher.

In addition, last week the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) raised its forecast for UK economic growth, noting that the Bank of England will conclude its monetary-easing cycle in the second quarter of 2026. This news supports the British pound and provides an additional basis for strengthening the GBP/USD pair.

However, pound buyers seem reluctant to open aggressive positions due to expectations that the Bank of England will also cut interest rates this month—though slightly later than the Fed. These forecasts were reinforced by the latest UK inflation data, which showed that the annual headline CPI slowed to 3.6% in October after holding steady at 3.8% for three consecutive months.

Accordingly, this allows traders to wait for more active buying before opening new positions in anticipation of a continued GBP/USD rally from the psychological 1.3000 level.

Today, for better trading opportunities, it is worth paying close attention to speeches by Bank of England members, as well as the release of the weekly ADP employment report and the JOLTS job openings report during the U.S. trading session.

From a technical standpoint, the pair has not yet overcome major resistance levels—the 200-day and 100-day SMAs—which are needed for continued growth toward the 1.3400 round level. Support is located at the 1.3300 round level, below which the 50-day SMA may provide an additional cushion before a potential decline toward the 1.3200 level.

For now, with oscillators on the daily chart remaining positive, the GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish tone.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 9, 2025

.

On Monday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated again below the 1.1645–1.1656 level, which allowed for expectations of a small decline. The bears managed to deliver a slight drop, but by Tuesday morning the euro had returned to the 1.1645–1.1656 level. Thus, today another rebound from this zone will again favor the U.S. dollar and a moderate decline toward the support level of 1.1594–1.1607. A consolidation of the pair above 1.1645–1.1656 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1718.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and straightforward. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous wave's low, while the last upward wave (still forming) has broken the previous peak. Thus, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It is hard to call it strong, but in recent months the bulls have shown only one thing — their weakness. The Fed's monetary easing should give them additional strength, as the ECB does not intend to cut interest rates anytime soon.

On Monday, traders continued to rest, and their activity was close to zero. However, today begins an interesting period that may significantly increase market movement strength. On Tuesday, the first labor-market reports will be released, opening a sequence of economic publications that could become decisive for the dollar. It is obvious that ADP and JOLTS reports (especially for September and October) are not the key ones for the market. However, as mentioned earlier, they will simply open the "hit parade." The Fed meeting will take place tomorrow. Next week, the long-awaited Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate for November (December 16) will be released, as well as November inflation (December 18). Based on these events, traders will be able to form a strategy for working with the dollar in the coming months. Also next week, the ECB meeting will take place. Even though the ECB board meeting is not causing much excitement among traders now, it is still an important event. The dollar may suffer significantly over the next two weeks.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this zone will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation above the 1.1649–1.1680 resistance zone will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1829. No forming divergences are observed today on any indicators. The "bullish" trend has every chance to recover.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports began to be published again after the government shutdown, but the available data is still outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish due to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 250,000, while short positions amount to 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they can cause many long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the American economy, as well as the loss of the Fed's independence under Trump's pressure and in light of Jerome Powell's resignation scheduled for May next year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

• European Union – Germany Trade Balance Change (07:00 UTC).
• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (13:00–15:00 UTC).
• U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (15:00 UTC).

On December 9, the economic calendar contains three entries, two of which are directly related to the U.S. labor market. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday may be present, but only in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions on the pair are possible today if the price closes below the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1594–1.1607. Buy trades may be opened with a target of 1.1718 if the price closes above the 1.1645–1.1656 level.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 09/12/2025: EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

.

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 9, 2025

.

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Monday continued a weak decline after two consecutive rebounds from the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362, moving toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.3294. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the pound and a return to the 1.3352–1.3362 level. A consolidation of the pair below 1.3294 will increase the chances of continued decline toward 1.3240, 1.3214, and 1.3186. Over the next two days, the news background may have priority.

The wave situation has shifted to a "bullish" one. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily broke the previous high. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully priced it in, while the U.S. news background also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to continue their attacks, but their positions are currently better than those of the bears. The end of the "bullish" trend can only be confirmed below 1.3186.

The news background on Monday did not inspire most traders to trade, as there were no significant reports. However, this week marks the start of the U.S. statistical "hit parade," accompanied by meetings of the Fed and the Bank of England. I remind you that both central banks are expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, but in the U.S. a series of important labor-market and inflation reports will also be released. I cannot say that there has been no movement in recent weeks. Rather, traders are more hesitant to deal with EUR/USD than with GBP/USD right now. Only in the past three days have market movements essentially stopped. However, I believe that starting today traders will begin drawing first conclusions about the state of the U.S. labor market, and tomorrow may bring many "New Year surprises." In my view, the pound and the bulls remain in a more convincing position. A "bullish" trend is forming, and the news background for the dollar is very weak.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose to 1.3339. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward 1.3140. A consolidation above 1.3339 will allow expectations of further growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. No new divergences are forming today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish in the latest reporting week, but that report is from one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between longs and shorts now is roughly 82,000 vs. 102,000. However, I remind you again that these figures are from mid-October. The picture may now be entirely different.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency enjoys some demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy to stop the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, while the Bank of England may cut rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may be no better for it.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (13:00–15:00 UTC).
• U.S. – JOLTS Job Openings (15:00 UTC).

On December 9, the economic calendar contains two fairly interesting entries related to the U.S. labor market. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be felt, but only in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions could have been opened upon a rebound from the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3294. These trades can remain open today. Long positions may be opened upon closing above the 1.3352–1.3362 level with a target of 1.3425, or upon a rebound from 1.3294.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Pound Ignores Weak Data

.

The British pound did not react at all to data from the British Retail Consortium, which showed that even Black Friday discounts were unable to prevent a slowdown in retail sales in the United Kingdom.

The report stated that total retail sales in November rose by only 1.4% year-on-year, below the 12-month average and the weakest figure since May. High sales of household and computer equipment were insufficient to offset weak demand for clothing and footwear.

"Budget anxiety among shoppers meant that the Black Friday month did not deliver the results retailers had hoped for — or those the economy needed," the British Retail Consortium said.

Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, also confirmed concerns that speculation about tax increases in the run-up to the budget presented by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves on 26 November harmed the economy. Although Labour ultimately abandoned income-tax hikes, opting instead to freeze thresholds for years ahead, warnings about the dire state of public finances still dampened consumer sentiment during a critical period for retailers.

Many experts also link the slowdown in sales growth to inflation, which remains high and reduces consumers' purchasing power. Consumers are becoming increasingly cautious with their spending, preferring to postpone major purchases until better times.

Weak retail sales are also bad news for Reeves. Her budget strategy relies on consumers — the engine of the British economy — spending their savings and returning to shops and restaurants. According to an assessment by the UK tax authority, if incomes and consumption do not remain stable, Reeves risks creating a £40 billion hole in the public finances.

The BRC data aligns with an NIQ report showing a decline in demand for expensive goods and technology during Black Friday compared with the same period last year.

Separate data from Barclays also showed that spending on the bank's debit and credit cards in November fell by 1.1% year-on-year — the sharpest decline since February 2021. Spending on non-essential goods and services decreased for the first time since July 2024, the report noted.

However, as I mentioned above, the data made no impression on the currency market.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only this will allow a move toward 1.3380, above which a breakout will be rather difficult. The most distant target will be the 1.3415 level. In the event of a decline in the pair, the bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3310. If they succeed, breaking this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3270 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3240.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to reclaim the 1.1650 level. Only this will allow a move toward testing 1.1680. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.1725 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant action from large buyers only around 1.1625. If no one appears there, it would be better to wait for a renewal of the 1.1590 low or open long positions from 1.1570.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Look at the Data and Make Decisions

.Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council — and possibly the future new Chair of the Federal Reserve — said yesterday that it would be irresponsible for the regulator to devise a plan outlining what interest rates will be over the next six months, emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic data.

"The Fed Chair's job is to follow the data, interpret it, and explain why they are doing what they are doing," Hassett said on Monday. "And so to say: I am going to do this over the next six months would be really irresponsible."

Hassett's statement came amid growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Inflation remains elevated, while the labor market is showing signs of cooling. This contradictory picture creates challenging conditions for forecasting the Fed's future actions. Uncertainty is further reinforced by shifts in the global environment: geopolitical tensions, supply-chain disruptions, and fluctuations in energy prices all affect the global — and therefore the U.S. — economy. Under such conditions, as Hassett noted, attempts to determine monetary-policy direction far in advance may be counterproductive.

Instead, Hassett believes the Fed should pay close attention to incoming economic data and adjust its policy according to changing conditions. This implies a flexible and pragmatic approach, where decisions are made based on current information rather than predetermined plans.

Hassett, one of the leading candidates to succeed Jerome Powell when the Fed Chair's term ends in May next year, was asked how many more rate cuts he considers justified in 2026. "I don't want to disappoint you with how rate cuts are counted, but I can say that you need to follow the data," he said.

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump repeatedly called on the Fed to cut rates below 2%, compared with the current target range of 3.75–4%. Powell and his colleagues are expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points as soon as tomorrow, but the further path remains uncertain.

Hassett also said in an interview that he believes Powell has been performing well in the role.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to reclaim the 1.1650 level. Only this will allow a move toward testing 1.1680. From there, it is possible to climb to 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The most distant target will be the 1.1725 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant action from large buyers only around 1.1625. If no one shows up there, it would be better to wait for a renewal of the 1.1590 low or open long positions from 1.1570.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only this will allow a move toward 1.3380, above which breaking through will be rather difficult. The most distant target will be the 1.3415 level. If the pair falls, the bears will try to regain control over 1.3310. If they succeed, a breakout of the range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3270 low, with prospects of reaching 1.3240.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD gains slightly yesterday

.

The American dollar experienced a modest gain yesterday against a range of risky assets. This movement was attributed to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which indicated that consumer inflation expectations in the US remained stable in November, while perceptions regarding job prospects improved.

In the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the expected inflation rate for the coming year remained virtually unchanged at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the expected inflation rate for three and five years ahead held steady at 3%. The perceived probability of job loss decreased to 13.8%, representing the lowest figure of the year.

Consumer optimism appears to be bolstered by a still robust labor market and relatively stable prices for goods and services. The decline in concerns about job loss recorded in the survey suggests a sustained confidence in economic stability in the near future. Together, these factors contribute to the maintenance of consumer spending, which is a primary driver of economic growth.

However, despite this optimism, there remains some caution regarding long-term economic prospects. The expected inflation rate for three and five years ahead, while stable, still indicates ongoing concerns about price stability in the longer term. The Federal Reserve will likely need to continue monitoring these indicators closely to effectively adjust its monetary policy.

It is important to note that consumer expectations are a dynamic indicator, influenced by a multitude of factors, including the geopolitical climate, changes in government policy, and unexpected economic shocks. Therefore, the survey results should be viewed within the context of a broader economic landscape rather than as a definitive forecast of the future.

Tomorrow, following a two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time to safeguard against deteriorating conditions in the labor market. Nevertheless, some officials have expressed concerns that the new tariff policy from Trump could result in long-term price increases.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey revealed that in November, consumers were generally more optimistic about the labor market compared to the previous month, reducing the likelihood of higher unemployment levels in a year and reporting better chances of finding work if they were to lose their current jobs. However, considering that employment prospects are still worse than they were last year and inflation remains high, an increasing number of households are reporting a decline in their personal financial situation. The proportion of respondents indicating that their current financial condition has worsened compared to last year rose to 39%, the highest level in two years.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1650 level. Achieving this will allow them to target a test of 1.1680. From there, they could aim for 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players may prove challenging. The furthest target will be the peak at 1.1725. If the instrument declines, I expect serious moves from major buyers around the 1.1625 level. If there is no activity there, it may be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1590 or to open long positions from 1.1570.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only then can they target 1.3380, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the area around 1.3415. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control at 1.3310. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3270, with the potential to reach 1.3240.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD gains slightly yesterday

.

The American dollar experienced a modest gain yesterday against a range of risky assets. This movement was attributed to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which indicated that consumer inflation expectations in the US remained stable in November, while perceptions regarding job prospects improved.

In the monthly Consumer Expectations Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the expected inflation rate for the coming year remained virtually unchanged at 3.2%. Meanwhile, the expected inflation rate for three and five years ahead held steady at 3%. The perceived probability of job loss decreased to 13.8%, representing the lowest figure of the year.

Consumer optimism appears to be bolstered by a still robust labor market and relatively stable prices for goods and services. The decline in concerns about job loss recorded in the survey suggests a sustained confidence in economic stability in the near future. Together, these factors contribute to the maintenance of consumer spending, which is a primary driver of economic growth.

However, despite this optimism, there remains some caution regarding long-term economic prospects. The expected inflation rate for three and five years ahead, while stable, still indicates ongoing concerns about price stability in the longer term. The Federal Reserve will likely need to continue monitoring these indicators closely to effectively adjust its monetary policy.

It is important to note that consumer expectations are a dynamic indicator, influenced by a multitude of factors, including the geopolitical climate, changes in government policy, and unexpected economic shocks. Therefore, the survey results should be viewed within the context of a broader economic landscape rather than as a definitive forecast of the future.

Tomorrow, following a two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time to safeguard against deteriorating conditions in the labor market. Nevertheless, some officials have expressed concerns that the new tariff policy from Trump could result in long-term price increases.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey revealed that in November, consumers were generally more optimistic about the labor market compared to the previous month, reducing the likelihood of higher unemployment levels in a year and reporting better chances of finding work if they were to lose their current jobs. However, considering that employment prospects are still worse than they were last year and inflation remains high, an increasing number of households are reporting a decline in their personal financial situation. The proportion of respondents indicating that their current financial condition has worsened compared to last year rose to 39%, the highest level in two years.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1650 level. Achieving this will allow them to target a test of 1.1680. From there, they could aim for 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players may prove challenging. The furthest target will be the peak at 1.1725. If the instrument declines, I expect serious moves from major buyers around the 1.1625 level. If there is no activity there, it may be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1590 or to open long positions from 1.1570.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only then can they target 1.3380, above which breaking through will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the area around 1.3415. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control at 1.3310. If they succeed, breaking through this range will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3270, with the potential to reach 1.3240.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Challenge lies in store for US dollar

.

Markets are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, but when it comes to the Fed's agenda for interest rates, the future is unclear. Just a week ago, three rate cuts were expected in 2026. As of Monday morning, futures are pricing in only two rate cuts in April and September. It seems that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has yielded to pressure for a December rate cut, but will oppose further monetary easing until the end of his term.

One thing is certain—inflation expectations are decreasing, and even the hawks in the FOMC must take this into account. Consequently, further rate cuts will face less resistance, putting significant pressure on the dollar.

It appears that the US dollar may recover some losses after the Fed meeting results are announced, as the future rate trajectory remains unclear. Besides, the missing inflation data that will be released next week, providing a clearer overall picture. Special attention will also be directed toward the updated forecasts that the Federal Reserve will have to provide without complete data on inflation and the labor market for October and November.

Uncertainty for the dollar is not diminishing; in fact, it is growing. In our previous review, we noted that there is a scenario where a Fed rate cut does not lead to a decrease in bond yields. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has been rising since the end of November, as the market reaches a consensus regarding its confidence in a rate cut on December 10. This dynamic says a lot, particularly about Trump's plan to swiftly cut interest rates while increasing import tariffs, creating conditions for the revival of US industry and lowering lending rates, which is not gaining traction in financial markets. If bond yields do not decrease, the US will struggle to find a solution regarding the rapid growth of national debt and its servicing costs. This undermines trust in the dollar and puts pressure on it, even amid high yield levels.

The overnight rate remained high throughout November and surged significantly above the Fed's interest rate by the end of the month. Banks are also actively utilizing the permanent repo mechanism amounting to $26 billion, highlighting liquidity issues. If markets conclude that liquidity problems are a consequence of the end of quantitative tightening, the next conclusion will be that additional capital infusions into the overnight market are needed, either through opening new credit lines or through asset purchases and subsequent liquidity injections. Regardless of the perspective, this indicates expectations of looming quantitative easing, and these expectations do not add stability to the dollar.

Another risk presents signs of being institutional, meaning it disrupts the balance of economic interests. This involves Trump's desire to take control of the Fed. Key factors include the Supreme Court's decision on Lisa Cook's case, the likelihood of Powell leaving his post before the end of his term in May, and the requirement for FOMC members to reside in their districts for at least three years. All of this could lead to the reelection of several FOMC members, and if the market perceives that the trend is moving toward increased Trump control over the Fed, that would further undermine trust in the dollar.

Thus, the dollar is finishing the year under challenging conditions. There are currently no serious reasons to expect its growth. Let me warn you of low volatility in the next two days, as investors may prefer not to take risks ahead of the FOMC meeting announcements. Overall, investors are factoring in the fact that the dollar remains under significant pressure. Only something extraordinary could change the bearish outloook for the greenback.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on December 9, 2025

.

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Tuesday, from the level of 1.3317 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving upward toward the target of 1.3367 — the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly start moving downward toward 1.3345 — the upper fractal (daily candle of December 8, 2025).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — upward
• Volume — upward
• Candlestick analysis — upward
• Trend analysis — upward
• Bollinger Bands — upward
• Weekly chart — upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3317 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving upward toward 1.3345 — the upper fractal (daily candle of December 8, 2025). When testing this level, the price may possibly start moving downward toward 1.3302 — the 5-period EMA (thin red line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 9, 2025

.

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Tuesday, the market, from the level of 1.1636 (yesterday's daily candle close), may begin moving upward toward the target of 1.1672 — the upper fractal (daily candle of December 8, 2025). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward to test the 50% retracement level at 1.1655 (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — upward
• Volume — upward
• Candlestick analysis — upward
• Trend analysis — upward
• Bollinger Bands — upward
• Weekly chart — upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1636 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving upward toward the target of 1.1685 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.1672 — the upper fractal (daily candle of December 8, 2025).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin May Linger in the $80,000 – $100,000 Range for a Long Time

.

Bitcoin is regaining strength after the November sell-off, but it is still too early to talk about a reversal of the bear market. Many experts predict the onset of a cryptocurrency winter, which could keep BTC trading in the $80,000 – $100,000 range for a considerable time.

However, fundamental factors such as central banks' monetary policy easing and declining inflation could positively affect risk assets, including Bitcoin. Institutional investors, who were the driving force behind growth in 2024-2025, are currently being cautious and are not rushing to increase their positions in cryptocurrency. At the same time, there are positive signals, as purchases from large and institutional players are gradually returning to the market. Additionally, potential positive news from the regulatory sphere could support the market.

Amidst the market direction uncertainty, another interesting piece of news has caught attention. Reports have emerged that South Korea plans to introduce regulations requiring cryptocurrency exchanges to compensate clients for losses resulting from hacks or system failures, even if the platform is not at fault.

This step will certainly set a precedent in the regulation of cryptocurrencies, where the responsibility of platforms for securing users' funds has remained vague. The new measure aims to increase investor trust in cryptocurrency exchanges and reduce risks associated with storing digital assets on online platforms. It is expected to compel exchanges to enhance security measures, invest in more reliable protection systems, and insure risks to minimize the chances of hacks and technical failures.

However, this approach may elicit mixed reactions from crypto exchanges. Imposing unconditional responsibility, even when the platform is not at fault, could lead to higher operational costs and lower profitability. Some exchanges might even consider exiting the South Korean market if the new rules prove too burdensome.

Trading Recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently focused on reclaiming the $90,300 level, which opens a direct path to $92,800, and it is then just a reach to the $95,000 mark. The most distant target is the peak around $97,300; breaking this level would signal attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin drop, I expect buyers to step in at $88,200. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,800, with the most distant target being $83,200.

For Ethereum, a clear consolidation above $3,126 opens a direct path to $3,233. The most distant target is the peak around $3,362; breaking this level would signal a strengthening of bullish market sentiment and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum drops, I expect buyers to emerge at $3,023. If the trading instrument returns below this area, it could quickly drop to around $2,924, with the most distant target being $2,858.

What to See on the Chart:

• Red levels indicate support and resistance levels where a slowdown or active price growth is expected.
• Green represents the 50-day moving average.
• Blue represents the 100-day moving average.
• Light green represents the 200-day moving average.

Crossing or testing the moving averages tends to either halt the market or set a new market impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 9: S&P 500 and NASDAQ range-bound

.

Yesterday, stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.35%, while the Nasdaq 100 decreased by 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 0.45%.

Global indices are range-bound as Treasury yields rise again, with traders increasingly concerned about the pace of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. Uncertainty regarding the Fed's future actions is fueling nervousness in the market. Investors, frustrated by the lack of key economic data, are trying to guess how quickly the regulator will continue to lower interest rates next year and how aggressive this process will be. Weak macroeconomic indicators could increase pressure on the Fed, prompting it to act more quickly while simultaneously raising concerns about a recession.

The rise in Treasury yields is putting pressure on stocks, particularly technology shares, as higher yields make investments in riskier assets less attractive. On Monday, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds increased by 4 basis points, reaching the highest level since September, leading to continued bond sales in Europe and Japan. This creates additional headwinds for the market, which is already facing several challenges, including geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation, albeit at a lower scale than last year.

The MSCI All Country World Index declined by 0.1%, while the Asian stocks index lost 0.5%. Futures on American stocks remained unchanged, while contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped slightly.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points as early as tomorrow, but some traders warn that this could signal a slowdown in the pace of monetary policy easing. This is due to persistent high inflation and the lack of fresh data during the longest government shutdown in US history, which has caused disagreements among officials. Following the probable reduction this week, money markets are leaning toward two more rate cuts by the end of 2026, which is less than the three cuts reported just a week ago.

"Investors are taking their chips of the table, waiting for the Fed decision," HSBC Holdings Plc for Asia said. "With lingering uncertainty about the Fed path in 2026, investors will peruse the FOMC's statement and projections especially closely. The more cautious tone of US markets overnight is therefore carrying over into Asia today."

Bitcoin fell by approximately 1.5%. Gold and silver traded within a range following their drop on Monday. Oil stabilized after its steepest decline in almost three weeks, as traders await reports this week to assess the extent of market oversupply.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,854. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,874. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,896 mark, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,837. A break below this level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,819 and open the way to $6,792.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market in wait-and-see mode

.

No one is ready to take risks. Investors opted to lock in profits ahead of the FOMC meeting, causing the S&P 500 to step back and move away from record highs. The US central bank is expected to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%. However, to placate opponents of this decision, Jerome Powell is likely to adopt a hawkish tone. Signals indicating a pause in the monetary expansion cycle could lead to a correction in the broad stock index.

The S&P 500 has gotten back into the game after declining in late October to early November, thanks to expectations for easing monetary policy from the Fed in December, which have alleviated fears about a tech sector bubble. According to Yardeni Research, the share of the information technology and communication services sector makes up an impressive 45% of the broad stock index. Meanwhile, industry earnings are expected to continue to grow in 2026, according to Wall Street experts.

Earnings Forecasts for S&P 500 and Individual Sectors

Yardeni Research recommends moving away from the Magnificent Seven stocks and diversifying portfolios in favor of other securities. Artificial intelligence is transforming every company into a tech company. Indeed, AI is boosting productivity and revenues across other sectors of the S&P 500, while the tech giants may not recoup their colossal investments in new developments.

Oppenheimer Asset Management forecasts that the S&P 500 will grow by approximately 18% next year, reaching 8,100 against the backdrop of stabilizing economic growth and easing monetary policy from the Fed. This estimate is the most bullish on Wall Street. However, faith in the strength of the American economy, in part due to Donald Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill," provides a basis for optimism. In such conditions, both consumer spending and corporate profits are on the rise.

Dynamics of US Stock Indices

Markets continue to believe in the acceleration of the Fed's monetary expansion cycle under the new chairperson, most likely to be Kevin Hassett. He has criticized the central bank's approach to forecasting the future trajectory of the federal funds rate, arguing that its fate depends on data, making six-month projections pointless. The shadow chairman of the Federal Reserve in action raises doubts about the necessity of listening to the current head of the regulator, Jerome Powell.

Markets expect hawkish rhetoric from him as a compromise with the hawks following the rate cut in December. In theory, this should trip up the stock indices. However, investors have learned to buy the dips at the slightest opportunity.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 has formed a doji bar with a long upper shadow, which could trigger a corrective move. Nonetheless, rebounds from support levels at 6,805, 6,770, and 6,750 should be viewed as buying opportunities.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

.

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 155.73 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 25 pips.

The dollar continues to regain ground against the Japanese yen, and there are currently no particularly aggressive sellers, even though conditions should be favorable for yen buyers. Apparently, traders have decided to pause ahead of the central bank outcomes from these countries.

Today's data showing a decline in machinery orders in Japan somewhat weakened the yen against the dollar. However, the pair's further direction will depend on how decisive the Bank of Japan is in its commitment to raising interest rates. On the one hand, weak data put pressure on the yen, as they signal slowing economic growth. On the other hand, any signals from the BOJ regarding a willingness to abandon its loose monetary policy could lead to a sharp strengthening of the yen. Investors will also closely monitor the central bank's rhetoric, analyzing every word for future plans.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 156.34 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 156.73 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.73, I intend to exit my long positions and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.86 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 156.34 and 156.73 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 155.86 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.34 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.34 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.86 and 155.34 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

.

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The first test of the price at 1.3309 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test at 1.3309 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, allowing for the implementation of Scenario 2 to buy the pound. As a result, the pair rose by 20 pips.

The British pound has corrected somewhat; however, it still has room to grow. In the UK, despite some signs of stabilization, inflation remains at a high level, putting pressure on the Bank of England. The central bank is forced to maintain a tight interest rate stance, which, in turn, supports the GBP/USD pair. Conversely, in the U.S., the situation appears different: inflation is gradually decreasing, while the labor market shows weakness. This compels the Federal Reserve to act more gently, which negatively affects the dollar relative to the pound.

This morning, there will be debates in Parliament regarding the BoE's report on monetary policy. This event will undoubtedly have a pivotal impact on the future dynamics of the pound sterling's exchange rate. Inflation-related issues will be of primary importance. Despite some successes in limiting price growth, the UK's inflation rate remains significantly above the target level. It is expected that Parliament members will raise questions about the BoE's next steps in combating inflation and the anticipated timelines for reaching target levels. The prospects for economic growth will also be a vital discussion point.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches around 1.3337 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 1.3374 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3374, I plan to exit my long positions and open a short position in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the level). Anticipation of strong pound growth can only arise after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3323 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.3337 and 1.3374 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks the 1.3323 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3285 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy back (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Sellers of the pound will reveal themselves in case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today, following two consecutive tests of 1.3337 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3323 and 1.3285 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9. Review of Yesterday's Trades on Forex

.

Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1646 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by nearly 30 pips.

Yesterday, the dollar briefly strengthened against the euro, but it did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market. No one seems to be seriously intervening in the market ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting starting today. The outcomes will be published tomorrow evening. Any signs of further policy easing will hurt the U.S. dollar, so serious purchases are not currently on anyone's mind.

Today, data on Germany's trade balance is expected in the first half of the day. Shortly afterward, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will speak. Data on Germany's trade balance traditionally draws the attention of investors and analysts, as it reflects the state of the eurozone's largest economy and its contribution to overall European growth. It is expected that the trade balance will remain positive, but any signs of a contraction may raise concerns about the slowdown in global demand and the impact of geopolitical factors on Germany's export orientation. Joachim Nagel's speech is also of significant interest. As president of the Bundesbank, he is an influential voice at the European Central Bank, and his comments on inflation, monetary policy, and the overall economic situation in the eurozone could substantially impact market sentiment.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1653 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to 1.1680. At the 1.1680 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1640 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase toward the opposite levels of 1.1653 and 1.1680 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1640 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today after two consecutive tests at 1.1653, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1640 and 1.1614 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 9

.

Bitcoin has failed to hold above $92,000 and has retraced to below $90,000. Ethereum is also facing some challenges in sustaining its upward momentum. However, looking at the technical picture over the past few weeks, the odds are still in favor of buyers, and the chances of a new wave of growth after the Federal Reserve meeting are quite high.

In a recent report by Glassnode, the Trend Score indicator suggests strong buying of BTC among nearly all types of investors, from whales to smaller retail traders. This is often observed before a market reversal, although not always. Additionally, a recent Santiment report noted that after heavy selling in November, whales have finally started aggressively buying BTC.

These data certainly instill optimism in the hearts of crypto investors who are tired of the narratives surrounding the cryptocurrency winter. However, it is essential to remain calm and not succumb to euphoria. The history of the crypto market is full of sudden reversals and deceptive bullish traps.

The combination of signals from Glassnode and Santiment deserves attention. The fact that large players, or whales, are actively accumulating BTC again may indicate that they see potential for further growth. Moreover, the involvement of a wide range of investors, from large to small, highlights increasing interest in cryptocurrency as a whole.

As for intraday trading strategies in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum in anticipation of further bullish market development, which remains intact.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $90,300, targeting a rise to $92,000. Near $92,000, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary at $89,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $90,300 and $92,000.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $89,300, targeting a drop to $88,000. Near $88,000, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $90,300 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $89,300 and $88,000.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,120, targeting a rise to $3,182. Near $3,182, I will exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario 2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary at $3,087 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back toward $3,120 and $3,182.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $3,087, targeting a drop to $3,042. Near $3,042, I will exit my sell positions and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario 2: I can sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $3,120 if there is no market reaction on its breakout back toward levels of $3,087 and $3,042.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 9

.

The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets; however, this did not prompt any significant technical changes in the market.

The temporary strengthening of the dollar against the euro yesterday in the afternoon can hardly be linked to anything specific. The changes against the pound were even less noticeable. It is evident that the market is waiting for signals from the Federal Reserve on future monetary policy. Traders are also closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators in an attempt to predict how dovish the Fed will be in the near future.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on Germany's trade balance is expected, along with a speech from the President of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. These events will certainly influence the dynamics of the euro and, consequently, the overall balance of power in the currency market. Trade data will provide insight into the state of the German economy, the largest in the eurozone. Stronger-than-expected export figures may strengthen the euro, demonstrating the economy's resilience to external challenges. Conversely, weak data may put pressure on the euro, raising recession concerns.

Joachim Nagel's speech will also attract keen investor attention. His comments on inflation, economic growth prospects, and the European Central Bank's future monetary policy could significantly impact market expectations and, consequently, the euro exchange rate. Additionally, other factors affecting the currency market, such as geopolitical situations, risks, and investor sentiment, should also be considered.

Regarding the pound, parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report will occur today in the first half of the day. This event will undoubtedly be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the pound sterling and the UK's overall economic situation. Investors and analysts will closely monitor the speeches of BoE representatives, seeking hints on future monetary policy directions. Special attention will be given to inflation issues. Despite certain successes in curbing price growth, inflation in the UK remains significantly above the target level.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data turns out to be significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 1.1650, targeting a rise to 1.1688 and 1.1705.
• Sell on a breakout of 1.1635, targeting a drop to 1.1615 and 1.1590.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 1.3340, targeting a rise to 1.3380 and 1.3400.
• Sell on a breakout of 1.3310, targeting a drop to 1.3270 and 1.3230.

For the USD/JPY Pair:

• Buy on a breakout of 156.15, targeting a rise to 156.55 and 156.95.
• Sell on a breakout of 155.90, targeting a drop to 155.70 and 155.40.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair:

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1656 on a return below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout above 1.1633 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3340 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3318 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6659 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6632 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair:

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3858 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3836 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Supported by all of the technical indicators, Crude Oil is likely to weaken today toward its nearest support level.

.

[Crude Oil]

With the EMA condition forming a Death Cross and the RSI(14) which positioned in the Neutral-Bearish level, it indicates that Crude Oil has the potential to decline down to its nearest support level today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 60.89

2. Resistance. 1 : 59.87

3. Pivot : 59.27

4. Support. 1 : 58.25

5. Support. 2 : 57.65

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of #CL breaks down below 58.25, it may continue to weaken to 57.65.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 57.65 is broken, Crude Oil could continue its decline down to 56.63.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of #CL unexpectedly strengthens and breaks above 60.89.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 59.20

EMA(200): 59.38

RSI(14) : 31.18

Economic News Release Agenda:

From the United States, the following economic data will be released today:

US - NFIB Small Business Index - 18:00 WIB

US - ADP Weekly Employment Change - Tentative

US - JOLTS Job Openings - 22:00 WIB

US - CB Leading Index m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - 10-y Bond Auction - 01:00 WIB

US - API Weekly Statistical Bulletin - 04:30 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.