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EUR/USD Analysis on December 12, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed, but overall remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional form. Inside this wave, we saw exclusively corrective structures, so there was no doubt regarding the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the formation of the upward trend segment is not complete, and its targets may extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave series appears finished; therefore, in the coming weeks I expect the construction of a new upward wave sequence. We have already seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and now the instrument is in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I expected that within this wave, the instrument would rise to the level of 1.1717, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, but this wave is taking on a more extended form—which is very positive, as it increases the likelihood of an impulsive wave. And with it, the entire upward sequence of waves.

The EUR/USD rate remained almost unchanged on Friday, as the market paused after two days of digesting the Fed meeting. In my view, the market's reaction was logical. It could have been different, as the FOMC results—as always—can be interpreted in many ways. Some traders might have noticed "hawkish" hints for 2026, others may have focused solely on the third consecutive rate cut, and some may be looking at the long-term perspective and expect that Donald Trump will eventually prevail and push the Fed to cut the rate to 2% or even lower.

However, in my opinion, the current news background should be assessed as a whole, rather than selectively.

Taken together, we observe the following set of factors:

• The trade war initiated by Trump continues.
• The Fed will continue easing monetary policy.
• The ECB may consider raising interest rates next year.

These three key factors work against the U.S. dollar. The fourth factor is the wave-based factor, as the upward segment of the trend still does not appear complete. The fifth factor includes those developments that have not yet been priced in over the past few months—namely two rounds of the Fed's monetary easing and the U.S. government shutdown. Incidentally, the shutdown may resume on February 1, since Democrats and Republicans have only agreed to fund the government for 2.5 months, and at the moment there is no information about progress in negotiations regarding Democrats' demands to maintain current levels of healthcare and social program funding.

Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors contributing to the decline of the U.S. currency. The targets of the current trend segment may reach the 1.25 level. The latest upward trend segment is beginning to develop, and it is reasonable to believe that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave sequence within the larger wave 5. In this case, growth toward the 1.25 level should be expected, as previously mentioned.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is clearly visible. The wave pattern is not entirely standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller in size than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. But this also happens. Let me remind you that it is best to isolate the most readable structures on the chart, rather than attempt to label every single wave. At present, the upward structure raises no doubts.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better to stay out of it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss protective orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on December 12, 2025

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For the GBP/USD pair, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any large corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its internal subwaves.

The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has taken the form of a five-wave sequence a–b–c–d–e and should be considered complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrument is now in the phase of forming a new upward wave sequence. Naturally, any wave structure can complicate at any moment and extend further. Even the presumed wave 4, which has been forming for five months, could take on a five-wave form, in which case we would continue observing a correction for several more months. However, at the moment there is a strong chance that an upward wave sequence is unfolding. If that is the case, the first two waves of this segment have already been completed, and we are now observing the construction of wave 3 or c.

The upcoming BoE meeting and labor-market statistics are equally dangerous for both the pound and the dollar. The GBP/USD rate declined by 20 basis points during Friday. However, this week can already be set aside, because ahead lies another one—no less important both for the pound and for the dollar.

I may be repeating myself, but I try to focus on only the most important news and events because they either correlate with the wave pattern or do not. That is why I was barely interested in today's GDP and industrial production reports from the UK. Consider how important these reports truly were for the market if by the middle of the U.S. session the total movement of GBP/USD (over 18 hours) amounted to just 40 points. And it is also difficult to say which report was more important. At first glance, GDP carries more weight, but today we received only a one-month reading—one that turned out weaker than market expectations. At the same time, the less significant industrial production report delivered a higher-than-expected result, which likely softened the negative market reaction.

Returning to next week: If this week demand for the U.S. currency fell amid the Fed's monetary policy easing, then next week it may decline due to the Bank of England's expected policy easing. Recall that the probability of a rate cut in the UK is also very high.

However, the U.S. will publish reports next week that I personally consider even more important than the recent Fed meeting. The FOMC acted blindly on Wednesday and provided the most neutral information possible, given the lack of statistical data. But next week, updated figures on labor markets, unemployment, and inflation will be released—data that will undoubtedly influence the Fed's decisions at the start of 2026. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair may come under pressure even if such pressure contradicts the wave pattern.

Conclusions

The wave pattern of GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment, but its internal structure has become more complex. The downward corrective a–b–c–d–e structure within wave C of wave 4 appears fully complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main uptrend to resume with initial targets near the 1.38 and 1.40 levels.

In the short term, I expected the construction of wave 3 or c with targets located near 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have now been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue to develop, and the current wave sequence is beginning to look impulsive. Consequently, further strengthening of the pair is possible.

The higher-degree wave pattern looks nearly perfect, even though wave 4 slightly exceeded the high of wave 1. But let me remind you that perfect wave patterns exist only in textbooks—real markets are much more complex. At this time, I see no grounds for considering alternative scenarios to the upward trend segment.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction does not exist and cannot exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – December 12th

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Today, the British pound, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I traded only the Japanese yen using the Momentum strategy.

Inflation data from the eurozone matched economists' forecasts, which kept volatility in the EUR/USD pair at a low level. However, despite stable macroeconomic indicators, market sentiment remains on the side of euro buyers. The British pound did not face major difficulties after the release of weak UK GDP data for October of this year.

During the U.S. trading session, there will be no economic statistics from the U.S. at all, so attention will shift to the speeches by FOMC members Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. Traders will closely watch for any hints regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Markets are hoping for more clarity regarding the timing and scale of potential interest rate cuts next year. Any disagreements among FOMC members may trigger volatility in financial markets.

Special attention will be given to statements from Beth M. Hammack, known for her conservative stance, while Austan D. Goolsbee is generally more inclined toward economic stimulus.

If strong data emerges, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (breakout trading) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1740 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1777 and 1.1801.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1715 may lead to euro decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1650.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3389 may push the pound toward 1.3416 and 1.3440.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3355 may push the pound toward 1.3320 and 1.3300.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 156.10 may lead to USD growth toward 156.55 and 156.94.
• Selling on a breakout of 155.75 may lead to USD selloffs toward 155.40 and 155.05.

Mean Reversion Strategy (reversal trading) for the second half of the day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1755, on a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1719, on a return back to this level.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3404, on a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3365, on a return back to this level.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6684, on a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6660, on a return back to this level.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3777, on a return below this level.
• I will look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3746, on a return back to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the GBP/JPY pair is once again accelerating, attracting buyers as it moves toward the highest level reached earlier this week, which was last seen in August 2008. Despite the negative data on UK GDP and industrial production, the pound did not react to the bad news. At the same time, a combination of factors continues to weaken the Japanese yen, providing a supportive tailwind for the British pound.

Investors remain concerned about Japan's deteriorating fiscal stability due to the large-scale government spending program promoted by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. At the same time, the prevailing risk-on sentiment — reflected in the generally positive performance of global stock markets — is putting pressure on safe-haven assets, including the Japanese yen, which to some extent supports the continued rise of the GBP/JPY pair.

However, the yen's weakening is partially limited by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as soon as next week. This creates a sharp contrast to the outlook for the Bank of England, from which markets expect a rate cut at next Thursday's meeting. This, in turn, may restrain further strengthening of the GBP/JPY pair.

Beyond the central bank decisions, next week market participants will also have to evaluate an important batch of UK macroeconomic data: monthly labor market statistics, new consumer inflation readings, and preliminary PMI figures. Taken together, this calls for a cautious approach when opening new long positions in GBP/JPY and a more measured entry into the upward trend that has already been ongoing for more than a month.

From a technical standpoint, daily-chart oscillators remain positive. The first resistance for the pair lies at 208.900, with major support at the round level of 208.000. The next support is at 207.750, below which the pair will fall back into its previous range. But at the moment, the path of least resistance for the pair remains upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12 (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and guidance on trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 155.64 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. The second test of 155.64 happened when the MACD indicator was in the oversold zone, which triggered the implementation of Buy Scenario #2. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 points.

During the U.S. trading session, the main focus will shift to speeches by FOMC representatives Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. A dovish tone from these officials could negatively affect the U.S. dollar. If expectations of further rate cuts increase, downward pressure on USD/JPY will return. However, it is necessary to consider not only their direct comments on monetary policy but also their general assessment of the economy. In particular, pessimistic forecasts regarding GDP growth or employment levels may indirectly signal a preference for policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.05 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 156.30 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.30, I will close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point reversal from the level). A rise in the pair can be expected only after a hawkish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.85 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.05 and 156.30 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 155.85 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.53, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return only if Fed rhetoric turns dovish. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning its decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.05 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.85 and 155.53 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money-management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and guidance on trading the British pound

The first test of the 1.3386 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped toward the target level of 1.3366.

According to the data, UK GDP declined by 0.1% in October this year, which led to the pound's fall during the first half of the day. Although the contraction in GDP is not catastrophic, it is yet another signal of the economic slowdown that began several months ago. It is important to note that this decrease occurred amid a relatively stable global economy and the absence of major external shocks. This suggests that the UK's issues are likely internal and related to factors such as high inflation, high interest rates, and political challenges.

During the U.S. session, there is no economic data scheduled for release. Instead, attention will be drawn to interviews and speeches by FOMC members. The impact of Fed officials' rhetoric may be quite significant — but only if expectations for interest-rate cuts rise substantially. Otherwise, hawkish signals may strengthen the U.S. dollar toward the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3383 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3408 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3408, I will close long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35-point move from the level). Pound appreciation today can be expected only after a dovish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3362 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3383 and 1.3408 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3362 (red line on the chart), which should quickly push the pair lower. The key target for sellers will be 1.3345, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pound may return today if Fed rhetoric turns hawkish. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning its decline.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3383 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3362 and 1.3345 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price level where you can buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price level where you can sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money-management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one provided above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on momentary market conditions are, from the start, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and guidance on trading the euro

The first test of the 1.1730 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro — especially in such a bullish market.

The fact that actual inflation in the eurozone matched analysts' expectations helped keep EUR/USD relatively stable. Despite the lack of surprises in macroeconomic data, market sentiment remains on the side of risk-asset buyers.

During the U.S. trading session, no economic data releases are scheduled, so attention will shift to public speeches by FOMC members Beth M. Hammack and Austan D. Goolsbee. Investors will closely analyze their comments for signals regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Market participants hope to gain more clarity on the timing and scale of potential interest-rate cuts next year. Disagreements among FOMC members could trigger volatility in financial markets. In addition to FOMC speeches, investors will also watch for other news capable of influencing market sentiment, including geopolitical developments. Overall, the U.S. session is expected to be relatively calm, with a fairly high probability of dollar strengthening by the end of the week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will be focusing primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Buying the euro is possible today when the price reaches the 1.1736 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.1758. At 1.1758 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry. A strong rise can be expected as part of the ongoing bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.1719 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1736 and 1.1758 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1719 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1701, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move upward from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return today only if FRS representatives take a very hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1736 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1719 and 1.1701 can be expected.

What is shown on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where one can buy the trading instrument
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where one can sell the trading instrument
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must make market-entry decisions with extreme caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money-management rules and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

FSOC no longer opposes cryptocurrencies

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According to the latest report, the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) is no longer opposed to cryptocurrencies and other digital assets, which were previously considered a threat to national security.

The cryptocurrency sector has been removed from the annual list of financial risks for the US system compiled by FSOC. Established in the aftermath of the 2008 mortgage crisis that devastated the global economy, FSOC was created as an early warning tool, allowing regulatory leaders to collectively identify emerging hazards.

For years, the digital asset industry appeared on this list. It was previously believed that products such as stablecoins and cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could pose risks if the sector became overly interconnected with the broader financial system. However, in the report for 2025, released yesterday, this concern is no longer addressed.

The exclusion of cryptocurrencies from the list of potential threats reflects a shift in the approach to regulating digital assets. This likely indicates a more mature understanding of the cryptocurrency market and its potential integration into the traditional financial system. However, this does not signify a complete abandonment of oversight.

Instead of viewing cryptocurrencies as a systemic threat, regulators appear to be focusing on targeted oversight of individual market participants and specific operations. This approach allows for a more flexible response to emerging risks without stifling innovation in the sector. The introduction of clear rules and standards for the cryptocurrency market, exchanges, custodial services, and other market participants this year has evidently played a positive role in the decision to exclude cryptocurrency assets from the risk assessments.

This news is favorable for the cryptocurrency market, which has been experiencing challenging times lately.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $93,000 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000. From there, it would not be far to $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $99,300, and surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I anticipate buyers at the $90,700 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,100, with the further target being the area of $85,800.

For Ethereum, a clear consolidation above the $3,349 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,664, and surpassing this level would bolster bullish market sentiments and renew buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the further target being the $3,023 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Yen Has Every Chance to Grow Until the End of the Current Year (There is a Probability of Decline in USD/CAD and USD/JPY)

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While the Fed continues lowering interest rates, the Bank of Japan will likely resume cutting its own rates — something the regulator's chairman, Kazuo Ueda, hinted at quite explicitly.

Previously, the Japanese central bank had taken measures aimed at gradually tightening monetary policy. But with the arrival of the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, the tightening process essentially halted, as she expressed the opposite view — that monetary policy should be eased. This led to a weakening of the yen against the dollar, despite the fact that the Fed resumed rate cuts this year.

Now, given the current situation in both the global and national (Japanese) economies and the prospects of further interest-rate reductions, the Japanese currency has every chance to strengthen significantly against the dollar in the Forex market. In this context, next week's rate decision by the Bank of Japan will be crucial. If the regulator raises interest rates, this will be a strong bullish factor for the yen.

Comparing the actions of other central banks whose currencies are included in the U.S. Dollar Index, we see that they have taken a wait-and-see stance, preferring to follow in the wake of the Fed's monetary policy. In this situation, the Japanese regulator is demonstrating its own independent view and policy direction.

So, what can we expect in the markets today and at the beginning of next week?

I believe demand for company stocks will remain supported against the backdrop of the Fed's monetary easing. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar will continue to decline, as the Federal Reserve signaled at Wednesday's meeting that further rate cuts are possible, and central banks whose currencies are part of the dollar basket — with the exception of the yen — have paused, keeping their interest rates unchanged.

The most promising scenario, in my opinion, is a decline in the USD/JPY pair due to the expected wide divergence in interest-rate levels. Riding this wave, the pair may fall to 153.00 yen per dollar by the end of the year.

Forecast of the Day:

USD/JPY

The pair is trading above 155.50. A break below this level could technically lead to a continuation of the corrective decline that began in November. The expected divergence between the interest rates of the Fed and the Bank of Japan will support the yen if the BoJ decides to raise rates next week. Under this scenario, the pair could first fall to 154.60, and then to 153.00 by the end of the month. A level of 155.39 may serve as an entry point for short positions.

USD/CAD

The pair is trading below 1.3800, which may allow it to continue declining toward 1.3720 amid overall weakness of the dollar in the Forex market. A level of 1.3753 may serve as a trigger for selling.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 12, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement and consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. Thus, the rise of the European currency may continue today toward the next Fibonacci level at 23.6% — 1.1795. A consolidation of the price below 1.1718 will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and trigger a decline toward the support level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Therefore, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It can hardly be called strong, but in recent days the bulls have revived and resumed active pressure. The Fed's monetary-policy easing supports further growth of the euro, and the ECB will not create any problems for the euro in the near term.

On Thursday, the news background in both the U.S. and the EU was essentially absent, but traders were not disappointed and continued to trade the outcome of the previous day's FOMC meeting. Recall that the interest rate was cut by 0.25%, which surprised no one. However, traders seemed to have been waiting for the Fed meeting simply as a trigger to resume active market behavior. The FOMC made no "dovish" statements or promises regarding 2026, which makes the dollar's decline look almost excessive. But I want to remind you that throughout 2025, the information background has been one major problem for the U.S. currency. I believe the dollar may show occasional local growth, but overall, the background remains too weak for bears to attack continuously. Next week the U.S. will release November data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation — and this may be another blow for the dollar. Thus, the Fed meeting simply gave traders a push. In my view, the most interesting developments are still ahead.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next Fibonacci level at 0.0% — 1.1829. A consolidation of the price below 1.1649–1.1680 will again work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but the data is still outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 250,000, while short positions total 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their short positions and increasing their longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several major trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy and a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure, especially given Jerome Powell's scheduled resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

European Union — Germany Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).

The economic calendar for December 12 contains one item, which is of no interest. The information background will not influence market sentiment on Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Short positions may be opened today on a rebound from 1.1795 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1718, or on a close below 1.1718 with a target at 1.1656. Long positions could be opened toward 1.1718 on a close above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone, and today they may be kept open with targets at 1.1795–1.1802.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392 to 1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066 to 1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 12, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support level of 1.3352–1.3362, turned in favor of the pound, and rose to the 1.3425 level. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar, resulting in a slight decline. Today, another rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level will again allow us to expect growth toward 1.3425, while a close below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.

The wave structure shifted into a "bullish" configuration two weeks ago. The most recent completed upward wave broke the previous high, and the latest downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" for now. The informational backdrop for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but bears have fully priced it in, and the U.S. background also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to maintain pressure, but their position is stronger than that of the bears. A confirmation of the end of the "bullish" trend will only come below the 1.3294 level.

There was no news background on Thursday, but bull traders continued pressing upward for a while out of inertia. Recall that the FOMC meeting ended with a third consecutive monetary-policy easing, and the market is not yet very interested in the outlook for 2026. Jerome Powell stated that further FOMC decisions will depend on economic data. And now traders are understandably nervous about next week, when U.S. unemployment, labor-market, and inflation reports will be released. If the labor-market numbers for November turn out to be weak again, the Fed will have to consider another rate cut in early 2026. And it does not matter what expectations the FOMC "dot plot" showed. If inflation also begins to decline, then a fourth consecutive round of easing will become very likely. The latest ADP report showed no improvements in the U.S. labor market.

Today, the UK released its GDP report for October, and once again the pound has become a source of support for the dollar. GDP contracted by 0.1%, while the market expected a 0.1% increase. The industrial production report was slightly better than expected, but GDP is more important.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair broke above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 100.0% correction level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3435 will open the way for further gains toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish during the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between long and short positions is now approximately 82,000 versus 102,000. However, these figures are from mid-October. The market picture may already be completely different today.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies caused a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to continue easing monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and support job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England can lower rates once more, the FOMC may end up easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom — Monthly GDP change for October (07:00 UTC).
• United Kingdom — Industrial Production change (07:00 UTC).

On December 12, the economic calendar contains two entries, both of which have already been released. The information background will not influence market sentiment for the rest of Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions could be opened on a rebound from 1.3425 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3362. Long positions may be considered today on a rebound from 1.3362 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470 to 1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

SEC supports transition of market to on-chain

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Bitcoin continues to demonstrate stability, bouncing back excellently from the $90,000 level and returning to the vicinity of $93,000. Ethereum also remains above $3,000, maintaining fairly positive upward prospects.

Meanwhile, a positive development for the market has come from SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who announced that US financial markets are actively transitioning to on-chain systems. Against this backdrop, the regulator is prioritizing innovation and the implementation of new technologies to ensure an on-chain future.

This statement is undoubtedly seen as a sign of support from the regulator, which could attract more institutional investors who were previously wary of regulatory uncertainty. Gensler emphasized the importance of creating clear and transparent rules for digital assets, which would reduce risks for investors and promote further development of the crypto industry in the US.

Investors view Gensler's statements as a positive signal and hope that the SEC will take a more lenient stance towards innovative projects in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space. This could lead to the emergence of new instruments and products that will expand investment opportunities and attract new capital to the market.

Overall, the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is quite favorable. Bitcoin and Ethereum show resilience, while the statements from the SEC Chairman bolster investor confidence. However, for the market to continue developing, it is essential to keep working on creating clear and transparent regulatory frameworks.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $93,000 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000. From there, it would be a short distance to $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $99,300, and exceeding this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the $90,700 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,100, with the further target being the $85,800 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,349 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,664, and surpassing this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the further target being the $3,023 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on December 12, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Friday, from the 1.3383 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving upward with a target of 1.3451 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective downward move is possible with a target of 1.3437 — the upper fractal (daily candle from December 11, 2025).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the 1.3383 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3367 — the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3400 — the historical resistance level (light blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 12, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Friday, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1719 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward move may occur with a target of 1.1762 — the upper fractal (red dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario:Today, from the 1.1737 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1719 — the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When this level is tested, a corrective upward move is possible with a target of 1.1746 — the 61.8% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

U.S. Trade Deficit Continues to Decline Rapidly

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According to the data, in September of this year, the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since mid-2020. This happened thanks to a sharp increase in exports.

The Commerce Department report states that the trade deficit in goods and services shrank by nearly 11% compared to the previous month, reaching $52.8 billion. Economists' average estimate had projected a deficit of $63.1 billion.

U.S. exports rose by 3%, reaching the second-highest level on record, driven by shipments of gold and pharmaceuticals. Imports increased more modestly—by 0.6%.

Taking into account the data for all three months, net exports likely made a fairly strong contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. As for imports, their increase was partly due to a rise in pharmaceutical imports, which was presumably triggered by President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on branded drug imports. However, aside from the threats, no action was actually taken. Imports of capital equipment and automobiles declined, as did imports of most consumer goods, including mobile phones, household appliances, toys, and furniture.

Adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit fell to $79 billion in September—the lowest level in nearly five years. Export volumes of consumer goods, after accounting for price changes, reached the highest level on record.

According to the Commerce Department, the September report showed that the U.S. exported a record amount of goods to Switzerland, resulting in the largest trade surplus with that European country in history. China's share of U.S. imports this year has dropped to its lowest level since the country joined the World Trade Organization. The seasonally adjusted goods-trade deficit with China also fell to the second-lowest level on record. The deficit with Mexico rose to a record high. The deficit with Canada also increased.

It is worth noting that the foreign-exchange market showed no reaction at all to such strong results.

Regarding the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about reclaiming the 1.1750 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1855 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1715. If no one steps in there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only then will a move toward 1.3430 become feasible, though breaking above that level will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3470 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3350. If they manage to do so, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 12: S&P 500 and NASDAQ mixed

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Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.34%.

Global stock indices reached new records as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this week and its optimistic assessment of the US economy boosted investor sentiment. The MSCI All Country World Index, one of the broadest indicators of the stock market, increased by 0.2% after closing at a historic high in the previous session.

The S&P 500 also hit a new weekly peak, while the volatility index (VIX) declined to a three-month low. The MSCI Asian stock index surged by 1.3%, nearing its highest level in a month. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds remained stable after a slight rise on Thursday when data showed that US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 increased more than expected.

The positive sentiment is expected to persist through the end of the year. With interest rates declining, the upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair, and rising profits, the bull market appears set to continue into 2026. As more companies adopt AI, participation in this sector is expected to broaden, pulling along industries beyond the Magnificent Seven.

Although the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% on Thursday, there remained a degree of caution regarding tech companies. Shares of Broadcom Inc., a chipmaker competing with Nvidia Corp. for AI computing revenues, fell in late trading after its sales forecast failed to meet inflated investor expectations. The Japanese Topix index led gains in Asia, reaching an all-time high, with the financial sector experiencing the highest demand amid assumptions that an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan next week is virtually inevitable. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks fell after the country's leadership signaled that it would maintain economic support but refrain from ramping up stimulus measures next year.

It is worth mentioning that on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, announcing the third consecutive rate cut, expressed optimism regarding the strengthening US economy as the inflationary impact of tariffs eases. While officials maintained a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, traders are still leaning toward two.

In commodity markets, copper reached a new record level on Friday. Most other industrial metals also rose following the Fed's decision. Gold remained stable after three days of gains, and silver traded near its all-time high. Oil prices increased from their lowest closing level in nearly two months.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level at $6,930. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,946 mark, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,896. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,874 and open the way to $6,854.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market buys low to sell high

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In finance, there's a saying that a sacred place is never empty. The rotation of securities in investment portfolios is leading to mixed dynamics in stock indices. The Nasdaq Composite is declining, the S&P 500 is inching towards record highs, while the Dow Jones is exhibiting its best performance relative to the S&P 500 since January. Interest in yesterday's leaders is rapidly dwindling, and laggards are transforming from ugly ducklings into beautiful swans.

While women are fighting, it's best not to get involved in the brawl. This is also true for technology companies. In November, Google announced its powerful AI model, Gemini 3, which outperformed the latest version of ChatGPT in benchmark tests. As a result, all those associated with OpenAI suffered. In particular, shares of Oracle, which secured an impressive $300 billion deal with a software manufacturer three months ago, fell significantly. Since then, Oracle's stock has plummeted by over 30%. The company's announcement of higher-than-expected expenses dealt a further blow.

Oracle's Expense Dynamics

The Fed's hawkish rate cut with an extended pause in the monetary easing cycle deprives the S&P 500 of a safety net. The technology sector, with its inflated fundamental valuations, appears to be the most vulnerable. It's no surprise that investors are shedding shares of the Magnificent Seven and turning their attention to banks and even the energy sector.

On the surface, the drop in oil prices makes companies in the oil and gas industry less attractive. Indeed, since the end of 2022, the energy index has risen by only 4% compared to the 79% rally of the S&P 500. It is expected that Brent and WTI will remain under pressure due to record market surpluses in the first half of 2026. However, investors have compelling reasons to buy.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Energy Index

The fundamental valuations of issuers in the sector, including the notorious price-to-forward-earnings ratio (P/E), are the lowest among all companies in the broad stock index. Even with oil prices in the range of $50 to $60 per barrel, Exxon Mobil has shown it can generate substantial cash flow. Over the past two months, the energy sector has ranked second among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 in terms of growth rates.

Thus, the rotation of securities in investment portfolios is gaining momentum in the US stock market. With expectations for a traditional Christmas rally and confidence in an accelerated cycle of monetary easing by the Fed under a new chair, the S&P 500 is being pushed towards record highs.

Technically, on the daily chart of the broad stock index, bulls are trying to restore the upward trend. Long positions established on rebounds from fair value at 6,845 and above should be maintained and occasionally increased towards the previously stated targets of 7,000 and 7,100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Economists are starting to anticipate an interest rate hike from the ECB

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Meanwhile, the European currency is rising, and more economists are predicting that the next move in the eurozone will indeed be an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank. This aligns with the views of influential board member Isabel Schnabel.

According to a survey, over 60% of respondents believe that officials are more likely to raise borrowing costs rather than lower them. However, they do not expect this to happen anytime soon; it is projected that the deposit rate will remain at 2% for the next two years.

On the one hand, rising rates may help contain inflation—which the ECB currently seems to have under control—but on the other hand, they pose risks of slowing economic growth and even triggering recessions in highly indebted countries. Clearly, the ECB will be forced to continue balancing between these two goals, trying not to harm the already fragile eurozone economy.

The impact of rate hikes on the euro exchange rate also remains uncertain. On one hand, higher rates make the euro more attractive to investors, which could lead to its strengthening. On the other hand, concerns about economic growth may reduce interest in the European currency.

I should note that in a recent interview, Schnabel cited inflation persistence as one of the reasons she is confident that interest rates will be raised in the near future. One indicator now points to the first hike in the second half of 2027.

However, most members of the Governing Council believe that interest rates are currently in a good place. At next week's meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde's task will be to convince investors that the economic danger is diminishing—without encouraging expectations of an imminent rate hike.

Survey participants believe that the new quarterly ECB forecasts, to be published next week, will present a more optimistic picture of growth, something Lagarde hinted at recently. As for inflation, concerns persist regarding 2027, when delays in implementing the EU's new carbon-pricing system may have a negative impact. However, most economists expect that the September forecast—predicting a 1.9% rise in prices this year—will remain unchanged.

Regarding the current EUR/USD technical outlook, buyers now need to think about reclaiming the 1.1750 level. Only then will a test of 1.1780 become possible. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1820, though doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1855 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1715. If no one steps in there, it would be wise to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. Only then will a move toward 1.3430 become feasible, though breaking above that level will be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.3470 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3350. If they manage to do so, a break of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3320 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on December 12

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Bitcoin faced some challenges around $89,000 yesterday but recovered well to the $93,000 level, around which trading is currently taking place. Ethereum also showed growth in the afternoon, firmly establishing itself above the $3,200 mark.

At the same time, according to CoinGecko data, publicly traded companies that are actively buying Bitcoin now hold over 5% of its total supply on their balance sheets. Notably, the company Strategy holds a full 3%. This trend, gaining momentum over the past few years, indicates increasing recognition of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and a means of storing value.

The significant increase in the share of Bitcoin controlled by public companies underscores a shift in the perception of cryptocurrencies from a speculative instrument to a strategic component of corporate portfolios. However, it should be noted that in the third quarter, Bitcoin purchases by many companies sharply slowed, indicating a phase of an overheated market. Nonetheless, Strategy's influence in this sector remains substantial. This company has continued to buy Bitcoin even during its sharp decline observed in November this year, reflecting its firm strategy.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to rely on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of a bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $93,000, with a target for growth to the level of $94,500. Around $94,500, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin is possible at the lower boundary of $91,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $93,000 and $94,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $91,900, with a target decline to $90,500. Around $90,500, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome oscillator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin is possible at the upper boundary of $93,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $91,900 and $90,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,278, with a target for growth to the level of $3,320. Around $3,320, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on the bounce. Before buying on the breakout, make sure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum is possible from the lower boundary of $3,241 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels of $3,278 and $3,320.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,241, with a target decline to $3,178. Around $3,178, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on the bounce. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome oscillator is in the zone below zero.

Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum is possible from the upper boundary at $3,278 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,241 and $3,178.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the price level at 155.74 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed out on all the downward movement.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar yesterday after data showed that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States exceeded economists' forecasts. The released data caused the dollar to weaken, as investors interpreted this as yet another signal of cooling in the US labor market. This, in turn, may affect the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. Weaker employment data may prompt the Fed to maintain its dovish stance on rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar's appeal. The yen's strengthening is also connected to expectations of possible changes in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. It is anticipated that the central bank will raise interest rates next week, making the yen even more attractive for purchases.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 155.83 (green line on the chart), with a target of 156.10 (thicker green line on the chart). At 156.10, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 155.64 level is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is oversold. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 155.83 and 156.10 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after it breaks the 155.64 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.40 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 155.83 level is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards opposite levels of 155.64 and 155.40 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price level at 1.3385 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound and missed out on all the upward movement.

News that the weekly number of initial jobless claims in the United States was higher than expected led to a decline in the dollar and a rise in the British pound in the afternoon. The US labor market continues to show signs of cooling, which increases investors' expectations regarding further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. This factor puts pressure on the dollar, making it less attractive to investors seeking higher returns in other currencies.

Today, the United Kingdom will release its GDP data, industrial output, and goods trade balance. GDP, as a cornerstone of the economy, will allow for an assessment of the pace of economic expansion or, conversely, contraction, which is necessary for determining the country's future development path. Given that the last positive GDP growth data was published only in July of this year, any negative figures today could exert much more pressure on the pound than may be apparent. The dynamics of industrial production represent another important indicator, reflecting the state of the industrial sector, which plays a significant role in GDP formation and employment. An increase in industrial production indicates rising consumer demand for goods and services, forming the basis for further economic growth. A decline, on the other hand, suggests a slowdown in economic activity and can serve as a harbinger of more serious economic problems.

The trade balance of goods, in turn, shows the difference between exports and imports. Together, these three economic indicators will provide a comprehensive picture of the current state of the British economy and allow market participants and investors to make more informed decisions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3400 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3431 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3431 level, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30-35 pips back from that level). Expecting strong pound growth can only be done after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price level at 1.3386 is tested twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 1.3400 and 1.3431 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after it breaks the 1.3386 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3366 level, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level). Pound sellers will show their strength if weak data emerge. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3400 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards opposite levels of 1.3386 and 1.3366 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 12. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro Currency

The test of the price level at 1.1715 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Contrary to analysts' expectations, the number of new jobless claims in the United States exceeded forecasted figures. This situation led to a decline in the value of the US currency and a strengthening of the euro's position.

Today, market participants will focus on the consumer price index reports from leading Eurozone countries. Special attention will be paid to the German inflation data release. Unexpected deviations from forecasts in German data may provoke significant fluctuations in currency markets, affecting both the euro and related currencies. Data from France and Italy will also be released. The difference between expectations and actual data can lead to a slight spike in volatility. Rising inflation across all countries will also support the euro's growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1745 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1770. At point 1.1770, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth for the euro can only happen after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its climb from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1730 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise towards opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1770 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1730 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1709, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1745 price level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1730 and 1.1709 can be anticipated.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 12

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The dollar continues to face issues. As statistics indicate, the number of initial jobless claims in the US has sharply increased, exceeding economists' forecasts, leading to another decline of the dollar against several risk assets. Although this news was not particularly new to the Federal Reserve or market participants, who are well aware of the challenges currently facing the US labor market, it has negatively impacted those betting on a short-term rise in the dollar. Economists link the increase in unemployment benefit claims to a slowdown in the American economy's growth rate, which, in turn, puts pressure on the Fed. Conversely, Europe is experiencing relative stability. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, the European economy is showing signs of resilience, making the euro a more attractive asset for investors.

Today, traders will focus on the consumer price index data from Germany, France, and Italy. These indicators will serve as a sort of compass, indicating the direction of short-term currency flows and determining the movement vector for the European currency. The publication of German inflation data is particularly anticipated. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany sets the tone for the entire regional economy. Any surprises in German reports could trigger sharp fluctuations in currency markets, affecting not only the euro but also other related currencies. France and Italy, the second and third-largest economies in the Eurozone, respectively, will also contribute to the overall picture. Overall, the upcoming consumer price index data will be a key driver for the euro in the short term.

Regarding the pound, today's data will include changes in UK GDP, industrial production, and the trade balance of goods. This triplet of economic indicators promises to be a true barometer of the British economy, capable of influencing trader sentiment and the British pound's exchange rate. GDP data, as a cornerstone of the economy, will provide insights into growth rates or, conversely, slowdowns, which is critical for forecasting the country's further prospects. Changes in industrial production are another key indicator reflecting the state of the manufacturing sector, which plays a vital role in GDP and job creation. A decline in this indicator may adversely affect the positions of British pound buyers.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to operate based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be most effective.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 1.1748, which may lead to a rise in the euro towards 1.1777 and 1.1815;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 1.1725, which may lead to a decline in the euro towards 1.1710 and 1.1680;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 1.3399, which may lead to a rise in the pound towards 1.3434 and 1.3468;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 1.3375, which may lead to a decline in the pound towards 1.3355 and 1.3320;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on the breakout of the level 155.85, which may lead to a rise in the dollar towards 156.15 and 156.55;
• Sell on the breakout of the level 155.50, which may lead to a sell-off of the dollar towards 155.30 and 155.00;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1755 on a return below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1719 on a return to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3410 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3375 on a return to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6680 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6656 on a return to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3785 on a return below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3754 on a return to this level;

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With all technical indicators condition which shows weakness, the Litecoin cryptocurrency has the potential to move toward

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[Litecoin]

The EMA(50) which positioned below the EMA(200) forming a Death Cross, along with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14), confirms that today Litecoin has the potential to continue its bearish bias.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 88.05

2. Resistance. 1 : 85.64

3. Pivot : 82.97

4. Support. 1 : 80.56

5. Support. 2 : 77.89

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of Litecoin breaks down below 80.56, it has the potential to test the 77.89 level.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 77.89 is broken, there is potential for it to move to 75.48.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is contained if the price of Litecoin rises above 88.05.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 82.39

EMA(200): 82.96

RSI(14) : 53.34 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, there are no economic data releases from the U.S. session.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Uniswap cryptocurrency today has the potential to continue its bearish bias.

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[Uniswap]

Although the RSI(14) is in the Neutral-Bullish level, but with the appearance of a Bearish Divergence and the two EMAs still forming a Death Cross, it indicates a significant likelihood for Uniswap to weaken.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 5.938

2. Resistance. 1 : 5.754

3. Pivot : 5.521

4. Support. 1 : 5.337

5. Support. 2 : 5.104

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down below 5.337, Uniswap may head toward 5.104.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 5.104 is broken, there is potential for this cryptocurrency to test the level at 4.920.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if the price of Uniswap strengthens and breaks above 5.938.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 5.475

EMA(200): 5.545

RSI(14) : 52.67 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Tonight, there are no economic data releases from the U.S. session.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.