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Forex forecast 24/04/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Earnings parade: From Adidas sneakers to Boeing jets, quarterly reports push the market

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Optimism returns to markets

U.S. stocks ended the day higher on Wednesday, helped by fresh hopes for progress in trade talks between Washington and Beijing. Investors responded to conciliatory signals from both sides, giving confidence in the prospect of easing economic tensions between the world's two largest economies.

Trump on the Fed: "Powell will stay"

An additional factor of support for the market was the calming statements of President Donald Trump. He dispelled fears about political pressure on the Federal Reserve System, emphasizing that he was not going to dismiss its head Jerome Powell. This strengthened the faith of market participants in the independence of the regulator.

Indices are growing, but modestly

The main stock indices - S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq - confidently gained momentum during the session, but moderated their growth by the close. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the existing tariffs between the US and China "cannot be sustainable in the long term", which also supported positive sentiment.

Tesla: Musk is leaving politics, but profits are falling

Tesla shares jumped by 5.3% after Elon Musk announced his intention to reduce interaction with the White House in order to focus on managing his businesses. However, the positive news background could not hide the financial difficulties: the company's net profit in the last quarter fell by 71%.

Boeing and General Dynamics: different directions

Boeing shares rose by 6.1% after the aircraft manufacturer reported a quarterly loss, which was lower than analysts expected. The company increased production and supply volumes, which helped smooth out financial losses.

At the same time, General Dynamics showed a 27% increase in profit in the first quarter thanks to a stable defense order. However, the decline in demand for business jets had a negative impact: the company's quotes fell by 3.3%.

Wall Street does not slow down

On Wednesday, American stock exchanges demonstrated a confident rally. The Dow Jones industrial average added 419.59 points, which corresponds to an increase of 1.07%, reaching 39,606.57. The broad S&P 500 rose 88.10 points, or 1.67%, to settle at 5,375.86. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted the biggest gain of the day, adding 2.5%, 407.63 points, to close at 16,708.05.

The rally amid political instability and trade uncertainty was a pleasant surprise for investors, especially given the jitters of recent weeks.

Airlines Under Pressure: Southwest Loses Its Orientation

Southwest Airlines has joined the ranks of carriers that have scrapped their financial guidance amid growing economic turbulence caused by trade policy uncertainty. The company acknowledged that it could not accurately assess the impact of external factors, including a potential escalation of tariffs. As a result, the carrier's shares have lost 4% of their value.

Early Trading: Futures Lose Heights

Despite a positive close, early trading on Thursday indicated caution among market participants. By 5:35 a.m. ET, Dow futures had lost 234 points (-0.59%), S&P 500 futures had fallen 26.75 points (-0.5%), and the Nasdaq 100 had dropped 126.25 points (-0.67%). This could indicate a correction after a strong rally, or signal new risks on the horizon.

Auto giants are losing value

Shares of U.S. automakers Ford and General Motors fell about 1% in pre-market trading. The reasons for the decline are the same: traders' concerns about geopolitical uncertainty and possible retaliatory measures from China.

IBM under attack: government contracts frozen

International Business Machines (IBM) found itself at the epicenter of negativity after announcing the suspension of 15 government contracts. This is due to the Trump administration's decision to cut spending as part of its economic agenda. Investors reacted painfully - the IT giant's quotes fell by 7.6%.

Inspiration from ServiceNow

Meanwhile, ServiceNow pleasantly surprised the market: the enterprise software developer reported quarterly profit that significantly exceeded analysts' expectations. The reaction was lightning fast — the company's shares soared by 9.2%, becoming one of the brightest stories of the day.

Stock exchanges held their breath

Investors are still waiting for the next move in the global trading game. Today, attention will be focused on the publication of quarterly results of several corporate heavyweights at once — among the main players of the day are Procter & Gamble, pharmaceutical giant Merck and tech brand Alphabet. These reports could set the tone for future market sentiment.

Decline amid uncertainty

European stock markets opened in the red on Thursday. The reason was a variety of corporate reports and continued investor wariness due to the unstable rhetorical background in the US-China trade conflict. The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.7% by morning. National indicators also closed in the red: the German DAX, the French CAC 40, the Spanish IBEX and the British FTSE showed a decline in the range of 0.3% to 0.9%.

The rebound was short-lived

Wednesday brought relief - the markets perked up after statements from Washington, which sounded in a more conciliatory tone. US Treasury spokesman Scott Bessent made it clear that the existing trade barriers between the US and China cannot be long-term. This helped stocks recover both on American exchanges and in Europe. However, the positive momentum did not last long: on Thursday, cautious sentiments again prevailed on the markets.

Investors withdraw capital from premium sectors

The shares of European companies focused on the luxury segment fell especially noticeably - the luxury brand index fell by 1.8%. The tech sector followed suit, losing 1.4%. The move was driven by weaker global demand and concerns that China's possible retaliatory measures would hit export-oriented companies hardest.

Recovering from the fall

Despite the current slump, the STOXX 600 has already recovered more than half of the losses it suffered earlier this month, when a sudden tariff tightening by the US sent markets down almost 18% from record levels.

Monetary policy in support mode

The European Central Bank took a step toward easing monetary policy last week, cutting its deposit rate by 25 basis points. The move is aimed at supporting the region's economy, which continues to be under pressure from external risks and weakening global demand. Markets are now confident that at least two more rate cuts will follow before the end of the year.

Adidas Off to a Strong Start

German sports giant Adidas pleased investors by publishing first-quarter results that significantly exceeded analysts' forecasts. The company's shares gained 1.8% on the back of strong sales and better-than-expected operating profit. The quarter's success was especially significant after a turbulent period associated with business restructuring and exiting some markets.

BNP Paribas No Surprises - and No Optimism

Shares in the eurozone's largest bank by assets, BNP Paribas, fell 3.1% after publishing its financial statements, in which quarterly profit matched market expectations. Despite the lack of negative surprises, investors took the result with a cool head - the market was clearly expecting more. General doubts about the stability of the banking sector against the backdrop of a volatile macroeconomic environment probably also played a role.

Kering Loses Weight

The French luxury segment representative, the Kering group, also suffered a setback. The company reported a sharper-than-expected drop in first-quarter revenue. Investors reacted immediately: the brand, which owns fashion houses such as Gucci and Balenciaga, plunged 5.8%. The decline in demand for luxury goods, especially in Asia, was a warning sign for the entire sector.

Nokia under pressure: a breakdown in rhythm

The biggest disappointment came from Finnish telecom giant Nokia. The company showed results that significantly lagged market forecasts: quarterly profit was lower than expected, and management warned of short-term disruptions caused by US tariffs. Against this backdrop, the shares fell 9.7%, becoming one of the hardest-hit stocks of the day in Europe.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Wall Street keeps White House in line

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The market is showing heightened sensitivity to any good news, but its best days are behind it. The value of US equities as a percentage of the MSCI All Country World Index peaked in December. According to Jefferies Financial Group, investors should brace for further declines. A similar pattern occurred with Japanese equities in 1989, which was followed by sweeping global changes. Something similar may be in store for the US.

Although US equities account for 60-70% of the world's total market capitalization, America's economy does not generate a comparable share of global wealth. As a result, capital is flowing out of the US into other countries, a trend that has been accelerated by Donald Trump's protectionist policies. This phenomenon reflects not only American weakness but also investors' growing appetite for investing in Europe, Asia, and other regions.

Dynamics of US and other stock indices

Since Donald Trump took office, the S&P 500 has fallen by around 10%, marking the worst performance in the first 100 days of any US president. It is no surprise that the Republican is growing anxious and is now backtracking on earlier decisions. After imposing tariffs on America's "Liberation Day," a 90-day pause was announced. Following his criticism of Jerome Powell, Trump announced that he did not actually plan to fire the Fed chair.

It seems Donald Trump is still glued to the S&P 500, and the market holds power over him. During his first term as president, the Republican repeatedly equated rallies in the index with his own effectiveness. With the president's well-known fixation on the stock market, some players are trying to exploit it. First came news of a tariff pause, which was later confirmed. Now, investors are rattled by rumors that the US may unilaterally roll back tariffs against China.

Although the US administration has denied the reports, there is rarely smoke without fire. What worked once may work again. Nevertheless, some traders chose to lock in profits after several days of gains.

Dynamics of US stock indices

In this environment, the risk of medium-term consolidation in the S&P 500 is growing. Bulls are eager to buy the dip, yet they remain wary of fresh tariff threats and the risk of a recession. Bears seize on the adverse backdrop but retreat quickly on positive White House headlines. Buyers and sellers are engaged in a tug-of-war, which typically leads to the formation of trading ranges for specific financial market assets.

Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 tested the 5,400 level in an attempt to activate a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. However, the bulls' offensive was repelled, and the broad market index closed below this critical level. If the price breaks below the low of 5,350, it could become a signal to build short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Stock Market on April 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ lose momentum after rally

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Following the previous regular session, US stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 gained 1.67%, the Nasdaq 100 rose by 2.50%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.07%.

However, pressure returned to the market during the Asian session. Asian indices broke their five-day winning streak after the brief global rally in risk assets faded amid mixed signals from the Trump administration about its plans for tariffs on China.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday cast doubt on a timely resolution to the US-China trade war. As a result, Hong Kong stocks fell by 1.1% for the first time in four days. Gold jumped 1.4% amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. European stock index futures dropped 0.1%.

The global advance in equities on Wednesday, following sharp swings earlier this month, was supported by signs that President Donald Trump was reconsidering the most aggressive elements of his stance on trade and the Federal Reserve. However, it is clear that investors find it difficult to predict where markets will go next, given the flurry of headlines from various administration officials and Trump's frequent tariff disputes.

Trump indicated that the US is aiming for a fair deal with China, adding Wednesday evening that the country could introduce a new tariff rate within the next two to three weeks. The administration is also considering reducing certain tariffs targeting the automotive industry, which automaker executives have warned would severely impact profits and jobs.

In an interview, Bessent also said that Trump had not offered to remove US tariffs on China unilaterally. When asked whether the president's proposal to de-escalate was one-sided, he replied, "Absolutely not." The Treasury Secretary stated that the administration is weighing many factors regarding China beyond tariffs, including non-tariff barriers and state subsidies. He also said that the strongest relationships between Washington and Beijing are at the top level, and there are no timelines for engagement. A complete rebalancing of trade could take two to three years.

In the commodity market, oil declined as investors assessed the prospects of increased OPEC+ supply and the impact of ongoing trade tensions between the US and China.

Technical Outlook for the S&P 500:

Today, the main task for buyers is to overcome the immediate resistance at $5,399. This would help continue the upward move and open the way to a new level at $5,443. An equally important objective for the bulls is to regain control above $5,483, which would further strengthen buyers' positions. If the index moves lower amid weakening risk appetite, buyers will need to show up around $5,342. A break below that would quickly push the instrument back to $5,305 and open the way to $5,269.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The Japanese yen maintains a bullish tone despite certain headwinds and remains in focus as renewed global risk aversion fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

Diminishing hopes for a swift resolution to the U.S.–China trade conflict, along with speculation that Japan may reach a deal with the U.S. and growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates, are all supporting demand for the yen. Additionally, the widening policy divergence between the Federal Reserve and the BoJ adds further pressure on the dollar, favoring the strength of the Japanese currency.

Recent comments by Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato have highlighted the country's growing concerns over U.S. tariff policy and its impact on financial markets. The uncertainty created by these tariffs could indeed pressure Japan's economy, a concern echoed by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who signaled that monetary policy measures might be necessary.

The visit of Economic Revitalization Minister Ryosei Akazawa to the U.S. for tariff negotiations may prove to be a key step toward mitigating negative effects on Japan's economy. Still, investors remain optimistic about the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike in 2025, reflecting confidence in a sustained rise in inflation above the 2% target.

Meanwhile, expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are driving a significant divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan. Traders are already pricing in a renewed Fed easing cycle, expected to begin in June, with at least three rate cuts forecast by the end of the year.

Technical Outlook:

• The overnight close above the 143.00 level serves as an important bullish signal for USD/JPY. Hourly chart oscillators remain in positive territory, potentially sustaining buying interest around the 142.45–142.40 zone.
• A drop below the psychological 142.00 level could expose the pair to further downside toward the 141.10–141.00 area, with additional support seen around the 100- and 200-hour SMAs, and an intermediate floor at 140.50. A break below the key 140.00 mark would pave the way for deeper losses.

On the other hand, a renewed push above 143.00 may encounter resistance near 143.55 or yesterday's high. A sustained breakout above 144.00 would likely trigger a stronger rebound in USD/JPY.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is showing positive momentum as it attempts to hold above the $3300 level, indicating growing investor interest in this traditional safe-haven asset.

The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations—highlighted by yesterday's comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—suggests that the current standoff may last longer than initially expected. Additionally, potential consequences of Donald Trump's tariff policies are creating a backdrop of elevated demand for gold.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book points to rising uncertainty in the economy due to shifting tariffs, which could limit further dollar gains in the coming months. Mixed data on consumer spending and signs of cooling in the labor market are also contributing to a more cautious outlook. The weakening U.S. dollar and expectations of more aggressive easing from the Fed continue to support precious metal prices.

At the same time, lingering hopes for a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China are helping to sustain a degree of market optimism, which may cap gold's upside in the near term.

Technical Outlook:

• $3370 is emerging as a key resistance level. A sustained breakout above it would open the door to higher targets, including $3400, followed by stronger resistance at $3425, and the broader target at $3500 would remain in play.
• However, if gold falls below $3300, this may signal a potential pullback. The first major support lies at $3260, and a break below this level would be critical, paving the way for further downside toward $3250 and possibly the key psychological level of $3200.

Still, with oscillators on the daily chart holding firmly in positive territory, the broader path of least resistance for gold remains upward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Is Playing a Game Where Everyone Loses

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According to a senior official at the European Central Bank, President Donald Trump has drawn the entire world into a game where everyone ends up losing — referring to his trade policy, which is based on flawed economic reasoning.

"Trump's trade tirades are slowing down economic growth, including in the U.S., and threaten to undermine financial stability," said Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, during a speech in New York.

Villeroy called for de-escalation to avoid a spiral of rising tariffs. "Now more than ever, it's important to speak the truth across the Atlantic, fully assess the damage from the trade war, and pave the way for a possible positive dialogue," said Villeroy, one of the most influential central bankers in Europe.

His comments were among the strongest from a European partner in defense and economic matters. It's clear that the Trump administration's reliance on protectionist measures is likely to backfire. The tariffs, initially intended to shield American manufacturers, have already led to higher import costs and, consequently, rising consumer prices. This reduces household purchasing power and weakens consumer demand — a critical driver of economic growth. Beyond the domestic impact, Trump's trade wars are severely harming global trade. The uncertainty caused by constant threats of new tariffs and retaliatory measures deters investment and slows global economic growth.

Villeroy also challenged Trump's claim that the European Union was created to hurt America, stating that the bloc was formed to bring lasting peace, democracy, and a market economy to Europe.

His remarks came just hours after the International Monetary Fund sharply downgraded its forecasts for global economic growth for this year and the next, warning that things could worsen further if a full-scale trade war erupts.

Earlier on Tuesday, ECB President Christine Lagarde urged EU governments to reduce internal trade barriers to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Clearly, the uncertainty around Trump's trade intentions has caught the European economy at a vulnerable time. Manufacturing and private consumption had only just begun to show signs of recovery after months of sluggish demand driven by high inflation and energy challenges — now that recovery is at risk due to escalating trade tensions.

"International trade is not a zero-sum game where one country's gain must come at another's expense," said Villeroy. "On the contrary, it is the most efficient way to achieve shared prosperity through the exchange of goods and services, ideas, talent, and innovation."

He also noted that the U.S. should acknowledge the significant growth in its trade surplus with Europe in services in recent years, and emphasized that a value-added tax is not the same as a customs duty, as the Trump administration suggests. Villeroy concluded that there's still room for pragmatic multilateralism between the U.S. and Europe when it comes to financial stability, international payments, and cybersecurity.

It's worth highlighting that Trump's trade war has significantly impacted the currency markets. In normal times, investors might flock to the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset — but now, capital is clearly flowing out of dollar-denominated assets and into the euro and British pound. Many traders and investors are wary of Trump's aggressive stance, which they fear could push the U.S. economy into recession.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: At present, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only a solid breakout here would allow targeting a test of 1.1430. From there, a move toward 1.1500 is possible, though achieving this without support from large market participants may prove difficult. The ultimate upside target remains the high at 1.1570.

If the instrument declines, meaningful buying activity is expected only around 1.1280. If no support emerges there, it would be reasonable to wait for a test of the 1.1210 low or consider long positions from 1.1150.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: For GBP/USD, buyers must overcome the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only this would open the way toward 1.3350, which is a challenging level to breach. The ultimate bullish target lies at 1.3416.

In case of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control at 1.3240. A successful break of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and drive GBP/USD toward 1.3205, with potential to test 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Desperately Needs a Deal with China

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The U.S. dollar surged sharply against most major currencies after President Donald Trump stated that he plans to be very "courteous" with China in any trade talks and that tariffs would be reduced if the two countries can reach an agreement. This suggests that Trump may be stepping back from his hardline stance toward Beijing amid ongoing market volatility.

"Tariffs will be significantly reduced, but they certainly won't be zero," Trump said. "We will be very courteous, and they will be very courteous, and we'll see what happens."

Trump also noted that he sees no need to say he will take a tough line with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and that he would not bring up the topic of Covid-19 during the talks—a subject that is extremely politically sensitive in Beijing.

It's worth noting that Trump's remarks came against the backdrop of a collapse in U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar since he imposed broad tariffs on April 2, followed by a 90-day grace period for most countries. The 145% tariffs Trump imposed on Chinese goods earlier this year remain in place, though exceptions have been made for computers and popular consumer electronics. Yesterday, it was also reported that certain exemptions would be extended to the automotive industry.

Clearly, Trump is panicking over the market selloff and dollar weakness, but he urgently needs a deal. So far, China has not officially responded to Trump's promises to behave courteously, but news agency Cailian described it as a sign that Trump is already softening his position on his signature tariff policy.

Earlier this month, Beijing indicated that it wants to see a series of concrete steps from the Trump administration before agreeing to any talks—particularly the restraint of disparaging remarks from members of his cabinet. Chinese authorities have also expressed dissatisfaction with comments made by Vice President J.D. Vance about Chinese farmers, which one diplomat labeled as ignorant and disrespectful.

In a speech yesterday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the world's two largest economies will need to find ways to de-escalate, and that this is likely to happen in the near future. Bessent also said that decoupling from China is not the U.S.'s objective. However, the Treasury Secretary believes that a comprehensive deal could take two to three years. He reiterated his view that China has suppressed its consumer economy in favor of manufacturing at the expense of the U.S., adding that any agreement would need to rebalance trade in a way that allows the U.S. to boost domestic production.

As mentioned above, the U.S. dollar reacted to all of this with strength—something many market participants had been anticipating, as the overbought euro and British pound clearly lost appeal as a result.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: At present, EUR/USD buyers need to focus on regaining the 1.1360 level. Only a breakout here would allow targeting a test of 1.1430. From there, a move toward 1.1500 is possible, though accomplishing this without support from large market players may be quite difficult. The ultimate upside target remains the high at 1.1570.

In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1280. If no support is found there, it may be worth waiting for a retest of the 1.1210 low or considering long positions from the 1.1150 level.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: For GBP/USD, buyers must break above the immediate resistance at 1.3300. Only then can they target 1.3350, which remains a difficult level to break. The most extended bullish target is the 1.3416 zone.

If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3240. A successful break of this range would deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and drive GBP/USD toward the 1.3205 low, with a potential move down to 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for April 24

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S&P 500 gains amid Asian uncertainty

US stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, posted solid gains on optimism about progress in trade negotiations. Despite the lack of a clear position from the White House, investor sentiment is buoyed by speculation over a potential reduction in tariffs by the United States.

Meanwhile, Asian markets are under pressure from mixed signals regarding tariffs. Uncertainty around the Trump administration's actions continues to curb activity across global exchanges and heighten short-term risks. Follow the link for details.

Declining US share of global market capitalization

The American market is showing signs of weakness: stocks are losing their luster due to Trump's protectionist policies and unstable trade relations, undermining investor confidence. This is contributing to a shrinking US share in global market capitalization.

The S&P 500 has entered a consolidation phase, with buyers and sellers battling for control, creating a zone of uncertainty. Volatility remains high, and market sentiment is mixed. Follow the link for details.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers the best conditions for trading stock indices, equities, and bonds, allowing you to profit from market shifts.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Eases Pressure on China

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The wave pattern on the 24-hour chart for #SPX is generally clear. The global five-wave structure doesn't even fit on the terminal screen at the smallest scale. In simple terms, U.S. stock indices had been rising for a very long time—but we know that trends alternate. At this point, the upward trend segment appears to be complete. The instrument has made four unsuccessful attempts to break through the 6,093 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci from wave 4. In my view, we will soon see the continuation of a corrective wave series. The U.S. stock market had been overheated for too long, and Trump triggered a chain reaction.

Switching to the 4-hour chart (image above), we can observe the development of a new downward trend segment, which could be quite extensive. The fifth wave is still missing from the structure, so I believe the decline in the S&P 500 index is not yet over. It's also important to keep in mind that any new tariffs introduced by Trump—or retaliatory tariffs imposed on the U.S.—could logically trigger new rounds of sell-offs in the U.S. stock market. Currently, the presumed wave 4 is still forming and may turn out to be quite complex in its internal structure.

The #SPX has recovered sharply, but the downtrend formation is still in progress. We are now witnessing the construction of a complex corrective structure within the presumed wave 4. I see no signs of a trend reversal at this time.

The recent recovery in the S&P 500 is primarily due to Trump's softened rhetoric regarding the trade war. Recall that a couple of weeks ago, Trump announced a 90-day grace period for 75 countries previously hit with import tariffs. Earlier this week, the U.S. President stated that tariffs on China would be reduced. It's still unclear by how much, when, or under what conditions, but the tone toward China—and many other countries—has clearly shifted.

The market sensed that the harshest trade war scenario may be avoided, and stopped selling off U.S. stocks. However, it's too early to speak of full de-escalation, as Trump is not planning to repeal all tariffs. I also doubt that every country will succeed in reaching trade deals with the U.S. I'm particularly concerned about the outcomes for the European Union and China, where negotiations remain extremely difficult.

As such, the recent market recovery is quite logical, but further growth will depend on positive news related to trade tensions. If such news is limited, continued growth in the S&P 500 becomes questionable.

Summary

Based on the analysis of #SPX, I conclude that the upward trend segment has ended. Trump continues to make decisions that threaten the stability of the U.S. economy and American corporations (e.g., trade wars, tariffs, import restrictions, and export controls), which is why we are now observing the start of a new downward trend. The "bubble" in the U.S. stock market had been inflating for years—and Trump has popped it.

The 4-hour chart also supports the likelihood of further declines. At this point, we expect the formation of wave 5, which implies another leg down, targeting the area around 4,614.

On the higher time frame, the wave structure is much clearer: a clean five-wave structure, including a five-wave substructure within wave 5. The upward trend segment is complete. Therefore, I would prepare for a new long-term downward segment, which is already underway.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift unpredictably.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in any trend direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be effectively combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC/USD Analysis – April 24th: Bitcoin Shows Signs of Revival

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for BTC/USD has become somewhat more complex. We observed a corrective downward structure that completed its formation around the $75,000 mark. Following this, a rather strong upward movement began, which could be the start of a new impulsive trend. Currently, the first wave appears to be complete, so a corrective wave 2 or b should be expected next. After that, Bitcoin's upward movement will likely resume, at least within the framework of wave c.

Bitcoin has long been supported by a steady flow of news about institutional investment, government involvement, and even pension funds. However, Trump's policies have recently driven some investors out of the market. Nonetheless, with the U.S. stock market and bond market in decline, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge, as it is less influenced by Trump's decisions. Once again, Bitcoin is being viewed as a "crisis hedge," increasing the probability of renewed growth for the digital asset.

BTC/USD has surged by $19,000 in a short period, which is substantial considering the current global economic instability. The reasons for this rally are varied, but each of them can be reasonably questioned. For instance, Bitcoin began rising after reports emerged that Trump is not planning to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. But how exactly does Powell's job security relate to Bitcoin?

Many economists now expect the Fed to begin cutting rates. However, Powell has consistently stated that the FOMC will respond to changes in economic data, not to shifts in Trump's trade policies. Some are even anticipating a new round of quantitative easing (QE), which would inject new liquidity into the economy—similar to what we saw during the COVID-19 era. While such policies could benefit cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, there is no sign of QE being launched yet. Moreover, it is highly questionable whether the Fed—after years of battling inflation—would now take steps that could reignite it.

So, much of the reasoning behind Bitcoin's rally seems speculative or, at the very least, highly debatable. Based on this, I believe we are more likely to see the formation of a corrective wave structure, rather than a new impulsive one. As I've stated in previous months, a prolonged and complex corrective phase still lies ahead.

Final Thoughts

Based on the analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the downward segment of the trend is still developing. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. Therefore, I have not recommended buying Bitcoin before, and I see even less reason to do so now. In my view, the best approach remains looking for selling opportunities.

At this stage, Bitcoin appears to be forming a corrective upward sequence of waves, which has not yet completed. Once wave c concludes, I would begin to seek short positions, targeting the $75,000 level.

On the higher wave scale, we can still see a completed five-wave upward structure. What is currently unfolding looks like the beginning of a corrective, downward phase or potentially a full-blown bearish cycle.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often unpredictable.
2. If uncertainty dominates the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction—always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Elliott Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Fed Needs More Time to Assess the Situation

.While Donald Trump is attempting to reach an understanding with China, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the current tariff policy is likely to exert upward pressure on prices and may have a more significant economic impact than previously anticipated.

Kugler emphasized that she supports keeping borrowing costs unchanged and will continue to do so until inflation risks subside and economic activity and employment show stability. "The economy is facing heightened uncertainty, with risks of rising inflation and risks to employment," Kugler said in a speech prepared for an event at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. "This month, we learned that the tariffs will be much larger than previously expected," she noted. "As a result, the economic effects of the tariffs and the uncertainty they bring are also likely to be greater than previously assumed."

To recap, President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners earlier this month, including levies exceeding 145% on Chinese goods. While considerable uncertainty remains surrounding the tariffs—especially after Trump said yesterday he might reduce trade surcharges on China—economists generally expect the measures to weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation in the U.S.

During a Q&A session following her prepared remarks, Kugler said she did not view the recent market turmoil as a sign that the public is losing confidence in the central bank. "The uncertainty is not coming from us," she said. The policymaker focused much of her speech on specific monetary policy challenges. She stressed the importance of allowing time for the Fed's policy to fully assess the state of the economy, adding that such lags are crucial as officials need to be proactive in understanding the effects of various shocks. "For monetary policy, it's essential to examine all available data, including market indicators, surveys, and anecdotal reports, to gain an early understanding of what's happening in the economy. As I've mentioned, it takes time for Trump's policies to impact the economy," Kugler said.

Current Technical Picture for EUR/USD

Buyers should now be focusing on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only after that will a test of 1.1430 become feasible. From there, the pair could reach toward 1.1500, although doing so without the support of major players will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1570 high. In the event of a decline, I expect significant buyer interest only near 1.1280. If there is no activity at that level, it would be prudent to wait for a retest of the 1.1210 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1150.

Current Technical Picture for GBP/USD

Pound buyers must break through the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only then will they be able to target 1.3350, which remains a tough level to breach. The ultimate upside target is the 1.3416 level. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3240. Should they succeed, a break below that range would deal a significant blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3205 low, with the potential for a further move down to 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Powell Can Sleep Soundly

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Markets responded with gains, and the US dollar strengthened against the euro and other risk assets after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite his disappointment that the central bank isn't taking more aggressive action to cut interest rates. "Never," Trump told reporters. "No, I'm not going to fire him. I just wish he would be a little more aggressive in his thinking about lowering interest rates."

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told reporters last Friday that Trump had been reviewing whether he could dismiss Powell, following a series of social media posts and public comments criticizing the Fed. Last week, the president launched another tirade against Powell, right before the European Central Bank cut its key rate by a quarter point to 2.25% — about half the Fed's current rate of 4.25–4.5%.

Trump has repeatedly complained that the Fed is not cutting interest rates quickly enough, repeating his criticism during a recent speech and insisting that the market turmoil surrounding his comments was exaggerated. "We believe now is the time to cut rates, and we'd like the Fed Chair to do that in a timely manner — not too late," Trump said.

For reference, Powell and his colleagues have so far kept interest rates unchanged after cutting them by a full percentage point in the final months of 2024. Policymakers are waiting to see how the economy responds to the Trump administration's latest moves on tariffs, tax reforms, deregulation, and immigration.

Most Fed officials have stated that current policy is in a good place and that the central bank needs to maintain some pressure to keep inflation in check, which has remained above the 2% target for four years.

The US economy grew at a healthy 2.8% last year, but economists now believe tariffs will slow growth by the end of 2025. While the Fed traditionally cuts rates to support the economy in such cases, Powell and some of his colleagues have indicated that the central bank may have to prioritize the inflation side of its dual mandate, especially as tariffs could once again spur inflation.

In addition, the US dollar showed increased stability against a range of other currencies, as the White House said the administration was making progress in negotiations on trade deals aimed at reducing tariffs announced earlier this month.

Current EUR/USD Technical Picture

Buyers must focus on reclaiming the 1.1360 level. Only then will a test of 1.1430 become possible. From there, the path may open toward 1.1500, although reaching it without the support of large market players could be quite difficult. The furthest target is the 1.1570 high. If the instrument declines, I expect major buyer activity only near 1.1280. If there's no interest there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low around 1.1210 — or consider entering long from 1.1150.

Current GBP/USD Technical Picture

Pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3300. Only then will it be possible to aim for 1.3350, a level that has proven difficult to break. The furthest target is the 1.3416 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3240. If they succeed, a break of that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3205 low, with a possible move toward 1.3165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GOLD. Gold Prices May Significantly Decline in the Near Future

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Gold prices have recently seen a notable correction amid market expectations of the start of real negotiations between the U.S. and China on tariffs and overall trade. Treasury Secretary S. Bessent's statement, noting that the current tariff war between Beijing and Washington is unproductive, suggests that negotiations are already taking place behind the scenes and that an agreement may be reached in the near future.

From a technical perspective, the price of the "yellow metal" has shown a local reversal downward, and a likely stream of positive, calming news for the markets may reduce demand for safe-haven assets—gold being a primary example.

Technical outlook and trading idea:

• The price is below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, above the 5-day SMA, but below the 14-day SMA.
• RSI is below the 50% mark.
• Stochastics are still rising for now.

I believe that the price of gold may fall to 3243.55 after breaking below 3320.60. The entry point can be considered at the 3307.55 level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Markets Have Likely Already Passed the Bottom of Their Decline (there is a chance of continued decline in EUR/USD and

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While markets remain focused on trade wars, particularly between the U.S. and China, incoming economic data indicate persistent structural problems in the advanced economies of Europe and the United States.

Markets enthusiastically reacted with a two-day rally following comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed hope for easing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing and assurances from Donald Trump that he had no plans to remove Jerome Powell from his post as Federal Reserve Chair. Now, all attention is shifting to key economic reports, which are pointing to a further plunge of the European economy into a state of depression and local challenges in the U.S.

Starting with Europe, the PMI reports for manufacturing and services in leading eurozone countries—France and Germany—as well as the composite reading for the eurozone all signal a continued slowdown. This confirms the entrenched negative trend for continental Europe, which can no longer be described merely as a "recession" but as a full-fledged depression. European elites are attempting to counter this through a strategy of military-industrial mobilization.

Even though the United Kingdom is outside the EU, it is also experiencing serious economic difficulties, as recent PMI data confirm.

What about the U.S.?

The situation there has improved somewhat. The Services PMI for April declined to 51.4 from 54.4 (the forecast was 52.8). While this is a slowdown, it's not yet catastrophic—the indicator remains above the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction. In manufacturing, the PMI rose slightly to 50.7 from 50.2, avoiding the expected drop to 49.0.

The U.S. housing market also remains relatively stable. New home sales in March increased to 724,000 compared to 674,000 previously, beating the forecast of 684,000.

Overall, the data from Europe and the U.S. show a relatively stronger position for the American economy. However, it's worth noting that the reports still don't fully reflect the impact of Trump's tariff wars, especially against China.

While investors try to focus on macroeconomic indicators, trade tensions remain the central narrative and will continue to dominate investor decision-making.

Looking at the broader picture of U.S.-China rivalry, it seems likely that the world's two largest economies will eventually have to compromise. Unless something extreme happens—like another unexpected move by Trump to pressure China with new sanctions—markets may already have passed their bottom and could begin to recover.

Forecast of the Day:

EUR/USD

The pair has recently surged on the back of dollar weakness, fueled by recession fears and speculation about Powell's potential removal. However, if the dollar stabilizes and the interest rate spread between the ECB and the Fed shifts against the euro, a renewed decline in EUR/USD is possible. A drop below 1.1310 would open the way toward 1.1200. A suitable sell level could be around 1.1295.

GBP/USD

The situation is similar to EUR/USD. The pound has mirrored the euro's movement. A decline below 1.3245 could push the pair toward 1.3140. A suitable sell level could be around 1.3230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 24

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Bitcoin failed to hold above the $94,000 level and corrected to the $92,500 area, where it appears more comfortable. Ethereum also pulled back to around $1,769 after briefly climbing above $1,830.

Meanwhile, following Bitcoin's rise above $94,000 yesterday, the Fear and Greed Index jumped to 72 points, indicating a state of "greed." Bitcoin also surpassed both silver and Amazon in terms of market capitalization. This rally reinforced its position as the dominant force in the cryptocurrency market and renewed interest from traditional financial institutions and retail investors.

Bitcoin's impact on the global economy is becoming increasingly clear, especially considering its market capitalization. By exceeding Amazon in value and overtaking silver, Bitcoin is proving its ability to compete with traditional assets. The key question is whether it can sustain this momentum and continue its ascent or whether a correction is inevitable. Time will tell, but one thing is certain: Bitcoin has permanently reshaped the financial landscape.

As for the intraday strategy in the crypto market, I'll continue focusing on major pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum as opportunities to trade within the framework of a still-intact medium-term bullish trend.

Below are the short-term trading strategies and conditions:

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today at the entry point of around $92,900, targeting growth toward $94,200. I will exit the long position at nearly $94,200 and open a sell position on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario 2: Buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary of $92,200 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward $92,900 and $94,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today at the entry point of around $92,200, targeting a drop toward $90,800. I will exit the short position at nearly $90,800 and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario 2: Sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary of $92,900 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward $92,200 and $90,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to buy Ethereum today at the entry point of around $1,777, targeting growth toward $1,813. I will exit the long position at nearly $1,813 and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario 2: Buy Ethereum from the lower boundary of $1,759 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward $1,777 and $1,813.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Ethereum today at the entry point of around $1,759, targeting a drop toward $1,726. I will exit the short position at nearly $1,726 and immediately buy on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario 2: Sell Ethereum from the upper boundary of $1,777 if there is no market reaction to its breakout, with a return toward $1,759 and $1,726.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3285 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 30 pips.

Demand for the US dollar returned in the second half of the day yesterday, supported by strong data on US manufacturing and services activity. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector exceeded analysts' expectations, indicating a recovery in production growth in the country. Simultaneously, the services sector also showed resilience, reinforcing the overall picture of economic strength. These macroeconomic figures supported the US dollar, which had been under pressure for most of the day.

Today, the economic calendar includes the release of the Industrial Order Balance report from the Confederation of British Industry. This report is important for assessing the current state of the British economy and serves as a leading indicator of future business activity. Analysts closely examine changes in order volumes to determine whether demand for UK industrial goods is rising or falling. An increase in orders usually indicates positive prospects for production, employment, and investment, whereas a decline could signal impending challenges. Strong results may offer limited support for the pound, but only if they significantly exceed economists' forecasts.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the entry point 1.3286 (green line) is reached, with the target set at 1.3326 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3326, I intend to exit the long position and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 30–35 pips from the entry point). The pound is likely to grow today only if strong economic data is released.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3264 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3286 and 1.3326 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout of the 1.3264 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3226 level, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20–25 pips from the level). Selling the pound is viable after weak data.

Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3286 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upside potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3264 and 1.3226 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 142.32 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which, in my view, limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed a fairly strong upward movement. The entry point for the short position at 141.81 coincided with the beginning of a downward movement in MACD from the zero level, but no strong downside move followed.

Yesterday afternoon, demand for the US dollar recovered, and the yen dropped, driven by positive news about activity in the US manufacturing and services sectors. The manufacturing PMI exceeded economists' forecasts, indicating a return to growth in industrial production. The services sector also demonstrated stability, reinforcing the overall perception of economic strength. The further dynamics of the USD/JPY pair will depend on upcoming economic data and statements from Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan officials.

Today's positive data on the Corporate Services Price Index growth in Japan provided some short-term support for the yen. However, given the broader global economic picture and Japan's internal challenges, this support will likely be short-lived. The outlook for the Japanese economy remains uncertain due to US trade tariffs. On the one hand, there is moderate corporate growth and some increase in domestic demand. On the other hand, high tariffs and the lack of a trade deal could negatively impact Japan's GDP growth as early as this summer.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point at 143.03 (green line on the chart), with a target at 143.72 (thicker green line). Around 143.72, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30–35 pip pullback). It's best to return to buying the pair during corrections and deeper pullbacks in USD/JPY.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests the 142.66 level twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and likely lead to an upward reversal. A move toward the opposite levels of 143.03 and 143.72 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the price breaks below 142.66 (red line on the chart), which would trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 142.07, at which point I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip rebound).

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 143.03 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upside potential and likely trigger a reversal downward. A move toward the opposite levels of 142.66 and 142.07 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1382 in the second half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator beginning a downward move from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by 50 pips.

Yesterday's positive data on U.S. business activity indices and increased new home sales fueled demand for the dollar and led to a decline in the euro. The improvement in U.S. economic indicators inspired investors, who began actively shifting capital into dollar-denominated assets, intensifying pressure on the euro. However, the fundamental factors shaping long-term trends remain critical for market participants. Inflation levels in the eurozone, U.S. trade tariffs, and European Central Bank interest rates will continue to be key components of trading strategy.

Today, several important economic reports from Germany will be released, including the IFO Business Climate Index, Current Economic Assessment, and Economic Expectations indicators. These are forecast to decline, which could weigh on the euro as early as the first half of the trading session. Economists closely monitor these indicators as they serve as a barometer of sentiment in German business. A drop in the IFO Business Climate Index is often seen as a sign of an impending slowdown in Germany's economic growth—the largest economy in the eurozone. This, in turn, could negatively affect the entire European economy and, therefore, the euro.

The Current Economic Assessment reflects how business leaders view present-day conditions. A decline signals that companies are struggling now—whether due to falling demand, rising costs, or other issues. Meanwhile, the Economic Expectations Index shows how companies view the near future. A drop in this measure indicates pessimism and may lead to cutbacks in investment and hiring.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.1361 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1409. At 1.1409, I plan to exit the long position and open a short in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-pip pullback from the entry. A euro rise in the first half of the day can only be expected after strong data.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1331 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential and trigger a reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1361 and 1.1409 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1331 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1282, where I will exit the short position and open a long in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-pip rebound from the level). Selling pressure may return at any moment today.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1361 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upside potential and trigger a reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1331 and 1.1282 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 24

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The euro and the pound continued declining against the U.S. dollar, under pressure from positive news and fundamental developments.

Strong U.S. PMI data and new home sales figures brought renewed pressure on risk assets in the second half of yesterday's session, sparking demand for the dollar. Encouraged by signs of resilience in the U.S. economy, traders rebalanced their portfolios in favor of dollar-denominated assets, adding extra pressure on the euro, pound, and Japanese yen.

However, fundamental factors driving long-term trends remain the focus of market participants. This, of course, refers to tariffs and the ongoing trade war, which remains unresolved. Inflation in the eurozone, despite some cooling, still exceeds the European Central Bank's target levels. The same is true for the United Kingdom. This creates the preconditions for further cautious monetary easing, which could support the dollar in the medium term.

Today, in the first half of the day, we await data on Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, Current Assessment Index, and Expectations Index. These indicators traditionally significantly impact the euro, as Germany is the largest economy in the eurozone. Improvement in IFO figures may indicate a strengthening in the German economy and thereby support the euro.

Conversely, worsening indicators could pressure the single currency. Traders will be closely watching how actual data compares to forecasts. If the data significantly exceeds expectations, we can expect increased market optimism and a strengthening euro. Otherwise, disappointing data may lead to a wave of selling and a weakening of the euro.

If the data matches economists' expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is best. The Momentum strategy is more appropriate if the data is significantly above or below expectations.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

EUR/USD

Buying on a breakout of 1.1358 may lead to a rise toward 1.1433 and 1.1505.

Selling on a breakout of 1.1267 may lead to a decline toward 1.1206 and 1.1147.

GBP/USD

Buying on a breakout of 1.3293 may lead to a rise toward 1.3350 and 1.3416.

Selling on a breakout of 1.3236 may lead to a decline toward 1.3205 and 1.3165.

USD/JPY

Buying on a breakout of 142.85 may lead to a rise toward 143.29 and 143.77.

Selling on a breakout of 142.32 may lead to a decline toward 141.82 and 141.34.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullbacks):

EUR/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1370 and a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1316 and a return above this level.

GBP/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3293 and a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3254 and a return above this level.

AUD/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6378 and a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6353 and a return above this level.

USD/CAD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3888 and a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3858 and a return above this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Price Movement of Silver Commodity Instrument, Thursday April 24, 2025.

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On the 4-hour chart, the Silver commodity instrument is visible even though its condition is strengthening where this is confirmed by the movement of the Silver price which is moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which also has an upward slope, but with the appearance of Divergence between its price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator, it gives an indication of a strong potential for Silver to weaken down to the level of 31,906 but as long as the decline and weakening are not lower and close below the level of 31,505 then this weakening is just a correction and will actually bring Silver to strengthen up to the level of 34,332 and if the volatility and momentum of the strengthening support it will go to 34,826.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday April 24, 2025.

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Although on the 4-hour chart the Nasdaq 100 index is Sideways, the range is quite large so that there is still a fairly promising opportunity in the index. Currently the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is in a Crossing SELL condition which indicates that in the near future #NDX has the potential to weaken down to test the Bullish Vacuum Block area level, especially at level 18392.2, but what needs to be considered is that as long as #NDX does not weaken until it breaks through and closes below level 18104.7, the index has the potential to strengthen again to level 19152.7 and if the momentum and volatility support it, 19946.5 will be the next target to be aimed of.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on April 24? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Thursday, but yesterday's developments showed that the market continues to ignore the majority of data releases. Only a handful of reports are lucky enough to be priced in. Nevertheless, Germany will publish the Ifo Business Climate report today, while the U.S. will release data on durable goods orders and new home sales. In the past, these figures could have significantly impacted price movements—but not now. Even if the market reacts, 90% of the movement in both currency pairs will still depend solely on Donald Trump.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point in discussing fundamental events other than Trump's trade war. The dollar decline may continue for as long as Trump keeps introducing new tariffs and raising existing ones. Any escalation may trigger another wave of dollar weakness. Any de-escalation could strengthen the dollar. This week, Trump began shifting his rhetoric on China toward a more conciliatory tone, but this is not yet a de-escalation. Knowing the U.S. president, we wouldn't be surprised if—following reports of tariff reductions for China—Trump raises them again.

Donald Trump stated that he does not intend to keep tariffs on China at the 145% level, which sparked a wave of relief across the markets. Bitcoin, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. stock indices rallied in response. However, Trump did not indicate when or under what conditions the tariffs would be reduced. If a trade deal with China cannot be reached, the White House will unlikely pursue de-escalation. Trump also decided to "pardon" Jerome Powell and not fire him. These two headlines helped the dollar gain some strength on Tuesday and Wednesday.

General Conclusions:

Both currency pairs may move in any direction during the penultimate trading day of the week. The market has already priced in the positive news for the dollar, so it's rather difficult to expect a further drop in both pairs for now. Novice traders can continue to look for signals around technical levels, but let's remember that the market is currently ignoring technicals to a large extent.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on April 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair closely followed the movements of the EUR/USD pair, further confirming that the current situation hinges on the US dollar. The fate of the US dollar entirely depends on Donald Trump's will. Almost all market movements are, in one way or another, triggered by statements from the US President. It may seem like we constantly talk only about Trump, but what's the point in discussing other factors that do not influence price movements?

Yesterday, April's business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors were published in both the UK and the US. In the UK, the indices were frankly weak, but the British pound held up quite well during the European session and showed no desire to fall. Similarly, weak US business activity data did not prevent the dollar from rising during the US session.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On Wednesday's 5-minute timeframe, several more or less accurate trading signals were formed, but profiting from them was extremely difficult as the price kept changing direction. As we previously warned, confusion and chaos persist in the market. The price rebounded four times from the 1.3289–1.3297 area but failed to resume the upward trend. After breaking through this area, we also didn't see a significant decline in the British pound, although this could continue today.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downward trend long ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, so the pound keeps creeping upward. One day of decline is not a sign of a new downtrend. Therefore, the future movements of the pair depend solely on the US president and his decisions and nothing else.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair may trade to the downside for a while as the first signs of easing tension in the global trade war have started to appear. However, for the dollar to show significant growth, there needs to be a continuous stream of news pointing to de-escalating the trade conflict.

Trading is currently possible using the 5-minute timeframe levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3289–1.3297, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No major reports are scheduled in the UK on Thursday, while several interesting reports will be released in the US, which the market may ignore. Trump did not make any high-profile statements overnight, so the market may move more calmly for a while.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair traded in a mixed manner. During the day, the price changed direction several times, and macroeconomic data did not trigger these reversals. The market remains in a state of unrest, and a continuous stream of news is coming from the White House. In our view, most of the information from Donald Trump isn't worth paying attention to. However, traders seem to think otherwise. Initially, the dollar fell on news of Powell's possible dismissal, then rose on reports that he would remain in office. Weak business activity data from the Eurozone was ignored, and the same happened with weak business activity data from the U.S. Overall, the market remains in chaos and confusion that has little to do with macroeconomic data.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

In the 5-minute timeframe, it's visible how often the price changed direction throughout the day and how it interacted with technical levels. We would say that all technical levels were essentially ignored — but that's no surprise since technicals only work when market participants pay attention to them. Currently, the market is focused solely on Donald Trump and his high-profile and contradictory decisions. Yesterday and the day before, the dollar slightly strengthened, but today, it may very well plunge again.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

The EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend on the hourly timeframe. The new week started with a fresh rally, but by Tuesday, Trump had triggered a pullback. Overall, the market remains strongly biased against the U.S. dollar and all things American. However, if Trump chooses to de-escalate the trade conflict he initiated, the dollar may improve its position soon.

On Thursday, the pair may again move in any direction, as price action remains entirely dependent on Trump's statements and decisions. No one can predict what the U.S. president might say today, and the market still pays no attention to macroeconomic data.

In the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be monitored for trading: 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1091, 1.1132–1.1140, 1.1189–1.1191, 1.1275–1.1292, 1.1330, 1.1413–1.1424, 1.1474–1.1481, 1.1513, 1.1548, 1.1571, 1.1607–1.1622, 1.1666, 1.1689. On Thursday, the U.S. will publish fairly significant reports on new home sales and durable goods orders. However, we doubt the market will want to respond to these particular reports or even pay attention to them.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.