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USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen

There were no tests of the levels I marked in the first half of the day, so I had no trades.

In the second half of the day, figures on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance are expected. Weak statistics will lead to a new decline in the USD/JPY pair. The market's reaction to the data release will be immediate, as traders closely monitor these indicators, which serve as important signals of the U.S. economy's condition. An increase in initial jobless claims indicates a slowdown in the labor market, which may negatively impact economic growth and the U.S. dollar's position against the Japanese yen. A negative trade balance—meaning imports exceed exports—also points to economic weakness and declining competitiveness of U.S. goods on the global market.

If extremely negative data is released, increased pressure on the U.S. dollar may be expected, similar to yesterday's session. However, it is worth noting that the market does not always react unambiguously to economic indicators. Sometimes investors' expectations are already priced in, and the actual data does not have a significant impact. In addition, future USD/JPY dynamics will be influenced by factors such as the Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision next week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.01 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 156.61 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.61, I will exit buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from that level). You can count on growth in the pair only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.74 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 156.01 and 156.61 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.74 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.29, where I will exit sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.01 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.74 and 155.29 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental report releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the British pound

The first test of 1.3373 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3373 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the pound) to play out. As a result, the pair fell by 20 points.

In the absence of important fundamental statistics from the UK, the British pound made several attempts to continue its bullish momentum, but without much success. The pound's further movement will largely depend on the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for the second half of the day. Figures are expected on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance. If the actual numbers turn out significantly worse than forecast, this may increase pressure on the dollar and trigger a new wave of buying in GBP/USD.

Traders will closely monitor the difference between expectations and actual data to assess the potential impact on the currency market. Particular attention will be paid to components of the jobless claims report. A significant increase in continued claims may indicate deeper labor market issues than previously assumed. As for the trade balance, a substantial increase in the deficit may signal weakening competitiveness of the U.S. economy and encourage further dollar weakening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3385 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.3424 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3424, I will exit buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from this level). Pound growth today is likely only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3367 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3385 and 1.3424 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.3367 (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. Sellers' key target will be 1.3340, where I will exit sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pound may return today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3385 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3367 and 1.3340 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the euro

The first test of 1.1697 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1697 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the euro) to play out. As a result, the pair fell only about 10 points.

After yesterday's rise triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the euro today showed growth in the first half of the day but failed to break above the upper boundary of the weekly range. However, despite this consolidation, overall sentiment in the currency market still favors the euro. Market participants eagerly await the release of key U.S. economic data that may influence further price dynamics.

Weekly U.S. data on initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be crucial. A detailed analysis of jobless claims will provide insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. An increase in claims may indicate slower hiring and a likely rise in unemployment, which in turn may negatively affect the dollar. A decline in claims, conversely, indicates a stable labor market and potential support for consumer demand. The trade balance, representing the difference between exports and imports, is an important indicator of the global competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Weak figures would also lead to renewed EUR/USD growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1715 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1755. At 1.1755, I plan to exit the market and also open a reverse sell trade, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected as the bullish market continues. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1694 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1715 and 1.1755 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1694 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I plan to exit the market and instantly buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. labor market data is very strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1715 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1694 and 1.1655 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – December 11th

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Given the very small spike in volatility in the first half of the day, no valid entry points were formed for the Mean Reversion strategy. Using the Momentum strategy, I traded only the Japanese yen.

The euro and the pound rose in the first half of the day, continuing yesterday's bullish market following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. However, after the initial spike caused by news from Washington, momentum weakened, and the single currency stabilized near 1.1700 against the U.S. dollar. Since the market had already largely priced in the expected rate cut, new catalysts are needed for further euro appreciation. Nonetheless, despite some consolidation, the overall tone in the currency markets remains positive for risk assets.

Next, the focus will shift to U.S. data on weekly initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and changes in wholesale inventories. Close monitoring of initial jobless claims will help assess the current state of the U.S. labor market. A rise in claims may signal slower hiring and a potential increase in unemployment, which in turn could negatively affect consumer spending, economic growth, and the U.S. dollar, which would continue to fall against risk assets.

The trade balance, reflecting the difference between exports and imports, is an important indicator of the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services on the global market. An expanding U.S. trade deficit would point to reliance on imports and may put pressure on the national currency. The session will conclude with the wholesale inventories report. An increase in inventories may indicate weakening demand and potential production cuts in the future—negative for the economy and for the dollar.

If the statistics are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EURUSD:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1720 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1750 and 1.1777
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1690 may lead to a decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1650

For GBPUSD:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3389 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3416 and 1.3440
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3375 may lead to a decline toward 1.3350 and 1.3320

For USDJPY:

• Buying on a breakout of 156.10 may lead to dollar growth toward 156.55 and 156.94
• Selling on a breakout of 155.75 may lead to dollar sell-offs toward 155.40 and 155.05

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day

For EURUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1716 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1675 with a return to this level

For GBPUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3383 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3350 with a return to this level

For AUDUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6665 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6624 with a return to this level

For USDCAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3825 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3794 with a return to this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US dollar dropping like rock

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As usual, the market reacted sharply to the results of the last FOMC meeting, then began to reassess the Fed's agenda before shooting up again. As a result, the bears in EUR/USD showed no signs of counterattacking, and the initiative was completely seized by the bulls. The major currency pair soared to its highest level since mid-October, and I fear this might not be the limit.

At first glance, everything unfolded just as expected. The federal funds rate fell from 4.00% to 3.75%, and Jerome Powell stated that the Fed feels comfortable. Borrowing costs shifted to neutral levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy. Everything went according to plan; however, the swift rise of the euro suggests that the central bank delivered a "dovish" surprise.

Market expectations for the Fed's key interest rate

Surprisingly, the futures market has lowered the odds of a monetary policy easing in January to 20% and does not expect rate cuts until April. However, it should be understood that investors were hoping for nearly five dissenting hawks, but they actually got only two.

The Fed's announcement of the resumption of QE also contributed to the decline of the USD index. The central bank will begin purchasing bonds in the amount of $40 billion. This was presented as an intention to calm the repo market. However, it could actually become part of the American administration's plan to lower Treasury yields. It's no surprise that talk of fiscal dominance and threats to the independence of the Fed is circulating in the market again.

Inflation expectations in the US

Adding to this are Jerome Powell's concerns about cooling labor market conditions and downward revisions to the inflation forecast for 2026 from 3.0% to 2.5%, which clarifies the situation. The doves have outmaneuvered the hawks, indicating that the cycle of monetary policy easing will continue. And with that, the upward trend in EUR/USD is likely to persist.

The major currency pair didn't even wait for the employment report outside of the agricultural sector for October and November, due on December 16, nor the potential drop in stock indices due to Oracle's issues. The euro took the bull by the horns and surged northward. In a week, the ECB will likely signal the end of the monetary expansion cycle and may even discuss an increase in deposit rates. In such conditions, how can the US dollar compete with the single European currency?

The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve has faithfully served and is still benefitting the bulls in EUR/USD.

Technical picture

From a technical viewpoint, on the daily chart of the major currency pair, the breakout of the upper border of the short-term consolidation range of 1.1615-1.1660 has allowed for the accumulation or establishment of long positions. These should be held, and EUR/USD could be bought periodically. Target levels are set at 1.1760 and 1.1865.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin at $1 million in just 10 years

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While Bitcoin currently shows no signs of upward momentum or any signs of life at all, which undermines its chances for future growth, I came across an interesting valuation model from Bitwise suggesting that a target price of $1.3 million for BTC by 2035 might even be too conservative.

The model is based on the idea that Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to gold—often used as a benchmark—could rise from the current 9% to 25%. Even this increase would be sufficient to push the price above $1,000,000 per coin.

Furthermore, the company does not account for the potential growth of gold's market capitalization, which is expected to continue increasing. If gold's price rises even further, Bitcoin's valuation of $1.3 million may seem even more modest.

Of course, making such long-term forecasts is a thankless task considering the unpredictability of the crypto market. However, the underlying idea in the model of capital reallocating from gold to Bitcoin appears quite logical. Bitcoin has several advantages over gold, such as ease of storage and transfer, making it a more attractive asset for the younger generation of investors. Additionally, institutional investors are increasingly showing interest in Bitcoin, which also contributes to its long-term growth.

However, it's important to remember that this is just one possible scenario, and Bitcoin's future remains uncertain.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $90,800 level, which opens a direct path to $93,000, and from there it's just a step away to $95,000. The furthest target will be the peak around $97,300, with a breakthrough at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $88,100 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $85,800, with the furthest target being the $83,200 region.

As for Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above the $3,233 level opens a direct road to $3,349. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,474, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $3,126 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $3,023, with the furthest target being the $2,924 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Who leads in Fed chair race? Trump sparks intrigue again. Trader's calendar for December 11 and 12

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The Federal Reserve concluded its December meeting with another rate cut—this time reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The new target range is now between 3.50% and 3.75%. This marks the third easing of the year, following steps taken in September and October, and the market had already priced in this scenario. In essence, rates have returned to their lowest levels since 2022. However, the outward smoothness of this decision hides a significant divide within the regulator itself. For the first time since 2019, three Fed representatives opposed the final decision:

• Of the 12 voting members, three voted against it.
• Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee advocated for a pause.
• Stephen Mihm, on the other hand, argued for a more aggressive move (a cut of 0.5%).

The context is also challenging. The economy is slowing, the labor market has cooled, and inflation continues to exceed the target of 2% by about one point. During the press conference, Jerome Powell described the situation as "complex" and emphasized that the committee unanimously recognizes heightened price risks and signs of a weakening labor market. After three rate cuts in 2025, the regulator is poised to approach 2026 with more caution. The latest forecasts indicate only one potential easing next year, exactly the same number the Fed projected in September.

The official statement again included phrasing about the "magnitude and timing" of future actions. This signals that officials do not intend to rush and want to more thoroughly evaluate incoming macroeconomic data and the balance of risks. The disagreements within the Fed only heighten the intrigue:

• Six members would prefer to avoid a December reduction.
• Seven believe that easing will not be needed at all in 2026.
• Three are convinced that the current rate level is already below neutral.
• Others suggest varying degrees of easing—from one to six steps.

The market is closely monitoring this range of opinions. This will determine how cautiously the Fed will navigate amid a slowing economy and unstable inflation dynamics.

Authorities have also adjusted macroeconomic guidelines, laying out a more confident scenario for the coming year. Inflation is expected to decline to 2.5% in 2026, down from previously forecasted 2.6%. By the end of 2025, it should slow to 3%. The GDP forecast for next year has been raised to 2.3% from the previous 1.8%. The growth estimate for the current year has been increased by one-tenth to 1.7%. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.4% in 2026. Currently, it stands at 4.4%, consistent with the previous forecast. The Fed also confirmed its intention to resume purchases of short-term Treasury securities if necessary, to ensure sufficient reserves in the banking sector and maintain a stable balance sheet size.

The information backdrop ahead of the meeting was limited. The publication of several key statistical series was delayed due to a temporary government shutdown that lasted throughout October and part of November. For instance, data on the personal consumption expenditures index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) was released with a two-month lag. The core index rose by 2.8% in September, which is one-tenth lower than the August figure. The labor market exhibited an unexpected recovery in September, with 119,000 jobs created after a decline of 4,000 in August. This trend has continued the uneven trajectory of recent months:

• Negative value in June
• Growth in July
• Decline in August
• New rise in September

The situation with the data is expected to normalize starting next week. A report on November employment will be released on Tuesday, followed by fresh inflation indicators. So far, the forecast for the Fed's interest rate remains unchanged since the September round, with the Fed still anticipating one reduction of 25 basis points in 2026. The accompanying statement noted that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, the labor market is losing momentum, and inflation remains above the target level. The committee acknowledged increased uncertainty in the forecast and risks of weakened employment.

The market reacted moderately positively to the December Fed decision, with the S&P 500 rising by about 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite managed to reduce its morning decline, while the Dow Jones intensified its gains. This dynamic reflects investor expectations that had already priced in policy easing and received confirmation of this. Analysts note that future communication from the regulator may become more challenging. Standard Chartered economists Steve Englander and John Davis highlighted this concern even before the meeting. They pointed out the combination of several factors:

• Disagreements within the FOMC
• Disruptions in statistics due to the prolonged government shutdown
• Jerome Powell's term expiring in May
• Uncertainty surrounding his successor

Collectively, they argue that all these factors complicate the perception of Fed signals and increase market skepticism regarding any long-term guidance.

President Donald Trump has entered the final phase of selecting candidates for chair of the Federal Reserve. The Financial Times notes that several candidates have made it to the final interview stage. Sources indicate that alongside White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, three additional candidates are being considered. Hassett, according to the newspaper's sources, remains the frontrunner despite concerns from some investors regarding his closeness to the president and the risks of excessive policy easing. However, the continuation of interviews indicates that his appointment is not considered a foregone conclusion.

Trump has emphasized that he is considering several candidates, although he has already developed his vision for the future head of the central bank. Currently, the list of contenders includes Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, as well as Rick Rieder, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income. Trump and Bessent are expected to have another meeting with one of the candidates next week, with a final decision planned for early January. The term of the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, expires in May 2026, but he will remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 2028.

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December 11

December 11, 2:50 AM / ** / Japan / Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Large Manufacturing Firms in Q4 / Previous: -4.8% / Actual: 3.8% / Forecast: 4.1% / USD/JPY – down

The BSI for Q3 came in at 3.8% after reporting -4.8% previously. This marks the first positive value over three periods. The improvement is attributed to an increase in export shipments. Companies ramped up shipments to the US ahead of the introduction of new American tariffs. A recent US presidential order established baseline tariffs of 15% on a broad range of Japanese goods. The BSI reflects the assessment of the business environment by large manufacturers and remains an important indicator of economic dynamics. Respondents expect an increase to 3.9% in Q4, followed by a slight decline in early 2026. If publication confirms the forecast (4.1%), the yen could receive support.

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December 11, 3:01 AM / United Kingdom / ** / November Housing Price Balance / Previous: -17% / Actual: -19% / Forecast: -21% / GBP/USD – down

The UK housing price balance decreased to -19% in October, down from -17% the previous month. This figure continues to signal downward pressure on housing prices. The most significant weakness is observed in the southeast, London, and East Anglia. A modest decline is expected in the next three months, with the RICS forecast estimating -12%. The data remain above the September low (-21%), indicating a moderate softening of the market. However, the annual outlook is more optimistic, with some participants predicting a turnaround to positive dynamics. If the November figure aligns with the forecast (-21%), the British pound may weaken.

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December 11, 3:30 AM / Australia / ** / Employment Growth in November / Previous: 6,470 / Actual: 55,256 / Forecast: -5,000 / AUD/USD – down

Full-time employment in Australia increased by 55,256 people in October. This figure is significantly above the average values observed since 1978. The historical maximum was recorded in 2021, and the minimum in 2020. The data reflect increased demand for labor and a recovery in certain segments of the labor market. If the November estimate comes in near the forecast (-5,000), the Australian dollar is likely to decline.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / Canada / *** / Trade Balance for September (Deficit) / Previous: -3.82 billion / Actual: -6.32 billion / Forecast: -4.3 billion / USD/CAD – down

Canada's trade deficit widened to -6.3 billion Canadian dollars in August, up from -3.8 billion the previous month. This figure is among the largest recorded in history. Exports fell by 3% (to 60.6 billion), with the most significant decline occurring in metals and minerals, where price and volume reductions led to a 7.6% drop. Specific categories, including lumber, also showed weakness. The impact was exacerbated by American tariffs that reduced shipments to the US. Imports increased by 0.9% (to 66.9 billion). A sharp rise in purchases of precious metals offset the declines of previous months. Meanwhile, energy imports fell, which reduced receipts from the US. The bilateral trade surplus weakened. If the September figure is close to the forecast (-4.3 billion), the Canadian dollar could gain support.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / United States / *** / Trade Balance for September (Deficit) / Previous: -78.154 billion / Actual: -59.55 billion / Forecast: -63.3 billion / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US trade deficit narrowed to 59.6 billion dollars in August, down from 78.2 billion the previous month. Imports decreased by 5.1% (to 340.4 billion), with the primary drop attributed to non-monetary gold. Purchases also declined in the following categories:

• Food
• Computer components
• Telecommunications equipment
• Jewelry
• Transportation services

Certain categories demonstrated modest growth, including computers, pharmaceuticals, and services in telecommunications, IT, and tourism. Exports increased by 0.1% (to 280.8 billion). Support came from crude oil shipments, computers, travel services, and revenues from intellectual property. Sales of pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and gold decreased. In key areas, the deficit with China increased, remained stable with Mexico, while the gap with Vietnam, Taiwan, and the EU narrowed. If the September result aligns with the forecast (-63.3 billion), pressure on the dollar will persist.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / United States / *** / Weekly Initial Jobless Claims / Previous: 218,000 / Actual: 191,000 / Forecast: 220,000 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Initial claims dropped to 191,000 at the end of November, down 27,000 for the week. This figure is significantly below market expectations and represents the lowest level since September 2022. This period includes holidays, which traditionally increase data volatility. Continuing claims fell to 1.939 million. The trend suggests low layoff activity amid a moderate hiring pace. The number of claims from federal employees also decreased. If the new report comes close to the forecast (220,000), the dollar may weaken.

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December 12

December 12, 7:30 AM / Japan / ** / Industrial Production Growth for October (Final) / Previous: -1.6% / Actual: 3.8% / Forecast: 1.5% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's industrial production rose by 3.8% in October after a significant decline earlier. The data indicate a recovery in output across major sectors. Historically, this indicator has shown high volatility, but the current gain surpasses long-term averages. The improvement reflects increased external demand and higher factory utilization rates. If the final result is close to the forecast (1.5%), the yen's position may weaken.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / Germany / ** / Inflation Rate for November (Final) / Previous: 2.4% / Actual: 2.3% / Forecast: 2.3% / EUR/USD – volatile

Germany's annual inflation rate was 2.3% in November, matching preliminary estimates and repeating October's level. The figure remains below the forecast. Inflation in services held steady at 3.5%, while commodity price dynamics slowed to 1.1%. Food prices increased moderately, while energy costs decreased less than the previous month. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined by 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in October. Core inflation slowed to 2.7%. The harmonized EU index rose to 2.6% on a year-on-year basis, exceeding both last month's estimate and the forecast. The monthly decrease was 0.5%. If the final figure remains close to the forecast (2.3%), the euro's reaction will be mixed.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / GDP Growth for October / Previous: 1.2% / Actual: 1.1% / Forecast: 1.4% / GBP/USD – up

The UK economy grew by 1.1% in September after previously recording 1.2%. This figure fell short of expectations. The data continue to reflect a moderate recovery in the economy following a volatile period over recent years. Long-term statistics show significant fluctuations. However, the current rates remain in positive territory. If the October result approaches the forecast (1.4%), the British pound could gain ground.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / Industrial Production Growth for October / Previous: -0.5% / Actual: -2.5% / Forecast: -1.2% / GBP/USD – up

UK industrial production decreased by 2.5% in September. This figure was worse than expected and reflects a deterioration in business activity across key segments. The decline was the most pronounced since July 2024. The sector is under pressure from:

• Weakening demand
• Reduced output

If the actual data for October come closer to the forecast (-1.2%), the pound may receive some support.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / Construction Output Growth for October / Previous: 1.1% / Actual: 1.3% / Forecast: 1.6% / GBP/USD – up

Construction output increased by 1.3% in September, exceeding expectations. The growth was driven by new projects, which contributed 2.5%. Repair and maintenance decreased for the first time in several months. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.2% increase, offsetting the previous decline. In the third quarter, total volume grew by 0.1%. If the October figure comes close to the forecast (1.6%), the pound may strengthen.

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December 12, 4:30 PM / Canada / *** / Construction Permits Growth in October / Previous: -4.0% / Actual: 4.5% / Forecast: -1.2% / USD/CAD – up

Construction permits in Canada rose by 4.5% in September, reaching 11.7 billion Canadian dollars. This figure rebounded from a decline in August and exceeded market expectations. The residential segment increased by 4.8% due to:

• An uptick in multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec
• Growth in private construction activity in Ontario

Non-residential permits grew by 4.0%, driven by the expansion of commercial and industrial properties in the same regions. A partial easing was observed in institutional projects. If the October data aligns with the forecast (-1.2%), the Canadian dollar may gain value.

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December 12, 7:00 PM / Russia / ** / GDP Growth in Q3 / Previous: 1.4% / Actual: 1.1% / Forecast: 0.6% / USD/RUB – up

Russia's GDP increased by 1.1% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period. This figure marks the lowest level in the last two years. The dynamics are associated with:

• Increased government spending
• Decreased investment activity

A weak external environment is also exerting pressure: crude oil exports have slowed, gas supplies have decreased due to sanctions, and trade with China is constrained by domestic market factors. A strong ruble after the increase in the key rate has further limited export revenues. If the actual third-quarter figure aligns with the forecast (0.6%), the ruble may weaken.

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December 12, 9:00 PM / United States / ** / Weekly Total Rig Count / Previous: 544 units / Actual: 549 units / Forecast: – / Brent – volatile

The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased to 549 units in the first week of December. This rise continues the moderate activity in the energy sector. The dynamics remain far from historical highs but reflect stable demand for extraction. Statistics indicate a gradual recovery from pandemic lows. The absence of a forecast makes the reaction of the oil market uncertain.

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• December 11, 12:00 PM / France / IEA Oil Market Report / Brent
• December 11, 12:00 PM / United Kingdom / Speech by BoE Financial Policy Committee member Randall Kroszner / GBP/USD
• December 11, 1:00 PM / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD
• December 11 / OPEC Monthly Report / Brent
• December 12, 4:00 PM / United States / Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson / USDX
• December 12, 4:30 PM / United States / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX
• December 12, 6:35 PM / United States / Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee / USDX

Additionally, speeches from representatives of leading central banks are expected during these days. Their comments typically generate volatility in the currency market, as they may indicate future rate plans by regulators.

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The economic calendar can be accessed via the link provided. All indicators are reported on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Monthly data are noted as (m/m). An asterisk (*) indicates the importance of the report for the assets available on the InstaForex platform, ranked by increasing significance. Please remember that the publication times are in Moscow time (GMT +3.00). You can open a trading account here. To keep your tools readily accessible, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app. Also, watch the market video news from the InstaForex Group.

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US Market News Digest for December 11

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq face challenges following disappointing Oracle results

Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%, and the Dow Jones jumped by 1.05%. However, the rally in the stock market, driven by the Fed's interest rate cuts, has waned as disappointing results from Oracle pressured tech stocks.

Oracle's earnings report raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in Oracle's shares triggered a chain reaction affecting other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Investors fear that current interest rates, while potentially set to decrease in the future, are already negatively impacting corporate earnings. Follow the link for more details.

Fed concludes December meeting with another 25 bp rate cut

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its December meeting with another rate cut—this time by an additional 25 basis points. Its target range now stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third easing of the year following the measures taken in September and October, a scenario that the market had anticipated. In essence, rates have returned to their lowest levels since 2022. However, the superficial smoothness of this decision masks a significant divide within the regulatory body.

For the first time since 2019, three Fed representatives opposed the final decision: out of the 12 voting members, three voted against it. The economy is slowing, the labor market has cooled, and inflation remains approximately one point above the 2% target. During the press conference, Jerome Powell described the situation as "complex" and emphasized that the committee unanimously acknowledges heightened price risks and signs of a weakening labor market. Follow the link for more details.

Stock market responses positively to Fed rate cut

The US stock market benefited from a triple advantage provided by the Fed. In addition to raising its GDP forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3% and lowering inflation estimates from 3% to 2.6%, the central bank did not rule out further monetary easing. Jerome Powell spoke about productivity growth driven by AI technologies. According to the Fed chair, the impact of job declines due to AI is not yet being fully felt.

In the latest FOMC forecasts, there is one act of monetary expansion projected for 2026, while the futures market is counting on two. Everything will depend on the data regarding the American economy. However, the lack of a safety cushion in terms of expectations for further decreases in the federal funds rate may make the S&P 500 vulnerable to sell-offs in technology stocks. Follow the link for more details.

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US dollar: post-Fed meeting results

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The decline of the dollar index (USDX), which began yesterday during the Asian trading session, accelerated significantly after the Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate cut. Although this decision was anticipated by the market, accompanying statements and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is ready for further rate cuts in the upcoming year.

During the press conference following the policy meeting, Jerome Powell underscored the Fed's willingness to "wait and see how the economy evolves," but raising interest rates in the future is not part of the baseline scenario.

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 27–28. The rate-setting committee is expected to take a pause (currently, markets assess this probability at 80%, according to the CME FedWatch tool), and, if inflation develops favorably, return to gradual monetary easing.

It is also important to consider that Jerome Powell will conclude his term as Fed Chair in March next year. Donald Trump announced last month his intention to propose a successor. Although a candidate has not yet been officially named, among the leading contenders, experts mention the president's economic advisor Kevin Hassett, known for his dovish stance on monetary policy.

Despite the high probability of a pause, the upcoming Fed meeting in January will be a critical step in assessing the current state of the economy and deciding the central bank's future actions.

Technical picture

Thus, the outcomes of the meeting that concluded on Wednesday and the expectations of changes in Fed leadership create a negative backdrop for the dollar and its USDX index, which continues to move in the zone of short-term, medium-term, and long-term bear markets—below key resistance levels of 99.10 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), 99.85 (EMA200 on the daily chart), and 101.40 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

In the first half of the European session, the dollar index USDX traded near the 98.57 mark, slightly below the previous day's closing price.

Technical indicators (in our case, RSI, OsMA, Stochastic) on the daily and weekly charts also remain in short position territory.

What to expect today?

Today, market participants are awaiting important releases (at 13:30 and 15:00 GMT), including reports on trade balance, initial jobless claims, and wholesale inventories. Experts anticipate an increase in claims for benefits to about 220,000 (up from 191,000 the previous week), indicating an unstable situation in the labor market.

Conclusion

The US dollar remains in a vulnerable position. The outcomes of the December Fed meeting have become a determining factor for the American currency in the coming weeks or even months. For short-term investors, it is advisable to focus on the publication of important US macroeconomic data, particularly relating to labor market dynamics and inflation.

It is crucial for investors to consider all potential risks, paying attention to key economic indicators and the rhetoric from subsequent Fed statements, in order to make informed investment decisions.

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Forex forecast 11/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

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EUR/USD Forecast on December 11, 2025

.On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair first rebounded from the 1.1645–1.1655 level, but soon after closed above this zone and showed strong growth amid the FOMC meeting. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A rebound from 1.1718 will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.1656. Consolidation above 1.1718 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1795.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It is still difficult to call it strong, but in recent months bulls have consistently shown weakness. The Fed's monetary easing has given them additional strength, while bears currently cannot rely on support from the ECB.

On Wednesday, the market could have reacted to the FOMC meeting in various ways, but ultimately chose the most logical one. I remind you that regardless of the FOMC's monetary policy outlook for 2026, "dovish" decisions were made in December, October, and September. Meanwhile, the ECB maintains the status quo. In my view, the US dollar should also have shown a decline in September, October, and November — even just from the standpoint of Fed policy. The market also had other reasons to sell the dollar during those months, yet selling began only in late November. But better late than never. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated that the FOMC does not intend to lower rates again at upcoming meetings because inflation in the US continues to accelerate. The Federal Reserve has done everything possible to save the labor market, lowering rates by a total of 0.75%. Next, attention must shift back to inflation and stabilizing it around 2%, which is still far away. However, important labor market and inflation reports will be released next week in the US, and they may adjust the Fed's plans and market expectations.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1829. A consolidation below 1.1649–1.1680 will again favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports resumed after the shutdown, but for now the available data is outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 250,000, while short positions amount to 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players had been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the US. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, analysts fear a recession in the US economy, as well as a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure and in light of Jerome Powell's planned resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the US and the EU:

United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 11, the economic calendar contains just one entry, and it is completely insignificant. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if a rebound occurs from the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1645–1.1656. Buy trades could have been opened with a target of 1.1718 upon closing above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone. These buy trades can be kept open today. New buy positions — upon closing above 1.1718 — may aim for 1.1795–1.1802.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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Why EUR continues to rise against USD

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Discussions regarding the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates rather than lower them have completely overturned market expectations for further monetary easing.

However, a number of European officials, including Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, were quick to dispel such talks. Villeroy stated that the European Central Bank has no grounds for an imminent interest rate hike, as it is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at the upcoming meeting next week.

The head of the Bank of France noted that it would likely be prudent to maintain interest rates at the current favorable level while remaining flexible and open to future meetings when discussing the monetary policy decision scheduled for December 18. He added that, as the current situation indicates, there are no grounds to expect a rate increase in the near future, contrary to some recent rumors and assumptions.

Such statements are generally aimed at calming the markets and preventing unwanted euro appreciation, which could negatively impact the export competitiveness of European companies. The ECB appears to intend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, assessing the impact of already implemented stimulus measures on the eurozone economy. At the same time, discussions about possible changes in monetary policy signal divisions within the ECB Governing Council. Hawks advocate for a tighter stance, while doves emphasize the need to support economic growth, especially given the ongoing uncertainties in the global economy.

Villeroy's comments came after board member Isabel Schnabel stated that she is confident that the ECB's next move will be an interest rate hike.

Yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde also spoke, indicating that she may refresh forecasts regarding monetary policy and the economy in December. In addition to the new forecasts, Lagarde will likely provide a more detailed justification for the ECB's position. Investors will closely monitor any hints regarding how the ECB assesses the current economic situation and which factors will be most significant in future decision-making. Particular attention will be paid to comments about the trajectory of inflation and economic growth prospects.

A scenario in which the ECB begins to raise rates would pose a significant challenge for the European economy. Higher interest rates could negatively affect investment, consumption, and economic growth rates. Additionally, this could lead to euro appreciation and a reduction in the competitiveness of European companies in the global market. However, it is important to remember that forecasts are merely projections. The economic situation can change rapidly, and the ECB will need to adapt its policy to new conditions.

Currently, the markets have almost fully priced in the absence of a rate cut in 2026, and the number of analysts expecting the ECB to begin raising rates is rapidly increasing.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the level of 1.1710. Achieving this will open the way for a test at 1.1725. From there, they could aim for 1.1750, although doing so without support from major players may prove challenging. The ultimate target will be the peak at 1.1777. If the trading instrument declines, I expect significant actions from major buyers around the 1.1675 level. If there is no activity there, it may be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1650 or to open long positions from 1.1615.

Concerning the technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. This will allow them to target 1.3420, above which a breakthrough may be quite difficult. The further target will be around 1.3440. Should the pair decline, bears will attempt to take control at the 1.3350 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could significantly undermine bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3320 with the potential to reach 1.3285.

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GBP/USD Forecast on December 11, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294 and consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. Thus, the upward movement may continue today if the price rebounds from this zone from above, aiming for 1.3425. Consolidation below the 1.3352–1.3362 level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.

The wave structure turned "bullish" two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but bears have fully priced it in — and the news background in the US also leaves much to be desired. Bulls are finding it difficult to continue their attacks, but their position is currently stronger than that of the bears. We can declare the end of the "bullish" trend only if the price falls below 1.3294.

The news background on Wednesday was not as straightforward as it might have seemed. The FOMC Committee made the expected decision to ease monetary policy by another 0.25%, but at the same time made it clear that the beginning of 2026 will be characterized by maintaining the current interest rate level. Moreover, throughout 2026 the FOMC plans only one additional easing, and Jerome Powell stated at the press conference that any further rate change will depend on inflation. In other words, the Federal Reserve has done everything possible to stop the decline in the US labor market, and now the focus shifts to inflation, which has been rising throughout the second half of 2025. Thus, the next easing of monetary policy should not be expected until inflation slows below 2.7–2.8%, when the Fed is confident that the indicator is on a downward trajectory. This information suggests that next year the Fed's policy will be neutral, while a "dovish" stance would be more appropriate for further weakening of the US dollar. Next week, the Bank of England will hold its last meeting of 2025 and will likely lower the interest rate as well. The market's and the pound's reaction to this event will answer the question of whether the "bullish" trend will remain until the end of the year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the level of 1.3369. A rebound from this level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3435 would allow for expectations of further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bullish" in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The current ratio between longs and shorts is effectively 82,000 versus 102,000. However, I remind you that this data is from mid-October. The situation may now be entirely different.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency is in demand, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to continue easing monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England may lower rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 11, the economic calendar contains only one entry, a completely secondary one. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Sell positions can be opened today if the price closes below the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3294. Buy positions could have been opened upon a rebound from 1.3294 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3352–1.3362. These trades may be kept open today with a target of 1.3425 until a close below 1.3352.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

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GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on December 11, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, from the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3378 – the 5-period EMA (thin red line). From this line, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the target of 1.3400 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• Volumes – down
• Candlestick analysis – down
• Trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• Weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: a downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:From the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3316 – the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). From this line, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the target of 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dotted line).

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EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 11, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1672 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• Volumes – down
• Candlestick analysis – down
• Trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• Weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: a downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1664 – the 5-period EMA (thin red line). When testing this line, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line).

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#USDX still continues its bearish bias today.

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[#USDX]

With all technical indicators condition which indicating the weakness, then #USDX has the potential to decline toward its nearest support level today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 99.47

2. Resistance. 1 : 99.05

3. Pivot : 98.80

4. Support. 1 : 98.38

5. Support. 2 : 98.13

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.38, it is likely to continue its decline to 98.13.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.13 is broken, then it could test the level at 97.71.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens and breaks above 99.47.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 98.84

EMA(200): 99.00

RSI(14) : 48.32

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight during the U.S. session, the following economic data will be released:

US - Unemployment Claims - 20:30 WIB

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 01:01

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The Nasdaq 100 Index has the potential to continue its bearish bias today

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[Nasdaq 100 Index]

With all technical indicators condition showing weakness in the NDX, such as the Death Cross formation and the RSI(14) being in the Neutral-Bearish level, sellers are quite dominant in the Nasdaq 100 Index today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 26037.7

2. Resistance. 1 : 25904.1

3. Pivot : 25700.9

4. Support. 1 : 25567.1

5. Support. 2 : 25364.1

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of #NDX breaks down and closes below 25700.9, there is potential for it to continue declining to 25567.1.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 25567.1 is broken, then #NDX could test the level at 25364.1.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is contained if the price of #NDX breaks above 26037.7.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 25604.1

EMA(200): 25614.8

RSI(14) : 33.05

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight during the U.S. session, the following economic data will be released:

US - Unemployment Claims - 20:30 WIB

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 01:01

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Fed's triple support fuels S&P 500 rally

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The market got what it wanted. The Fed executed a hawkish cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% and signaling a pause in the cycle of monetary easing. However, the central bank did not close the door on further easing. Moreover, Jerome Powell's emphasis on labor market weakness and the Fed's decision-making dependence on data make monetary expansion in 2026 quite likely. This was well received by US stock indices, with the S&P 500 registering its strongest reaction to an FOMC meeting since March, while the Russell 2000 reached a new record high.

S&P 500's Reaction to Fed Meetings

The stock market benefited from a triple advantage provided by the Fed. Not only did the central bank raise its GDP forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3% and lower inflation estimates from 3% to 2.6%, but it also did not rule out further monetary easing. Jerome Powell spoke about productivity growth driven by artificial intelligence technologies. According to the Fed chair, the employment declines due to AI are not fully felt yet; otherwise, jobless claims would be rising substantially faster.

The acceleration of the economy against the backdrop of slowing inflation creates a kind of Goldilocks environment for US stocks. According to Navellier & Associates, when the Fed lowers rates and the S&P 500 is within 2% of record highs, it has risen 100% of the time over the next 12 months.

The hawkish rate cut followed by a dovish surprise from Jerome Powell led to a decline in Treasury yields. For a long time, the broad stock index has ignored the rally in Treasury rates, but this could not continue indefinitely. The S&P 500 would either fall, or bond yields would. Fortunately, investors chose the latter option.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and US Treasury Yields

In the latest FOMC forecasts, there is one act of monetary expansion projected for 2026, whereas the futures market is banking on two. Everything will depend on the data regarding the American economy. However, the lack of a safety cushion in terms of expectations for further decreases in the federal funds rate may make the S&P 500 vulnerable to sell-offs in technology stocks.

Thus, the disappointing results from Oracle, which did not meet Wall Street's expectations, echoed in a drop in S&P 500 futures. It is likely that the broad stock index will open lower on December 11. Nonetheless, retail investors, who have acclimated to buying the dips, only need this. They are eagerly awaiting the Christmas rally in the US stock market, and a pullback in the broad stock index would present an excellent opportunity to purchase at a lower price.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the price consolidating above fair value at 6,845, with bulls in control of the situation. As long as the market trades above this important level, the focus should remain on buying the broad stock index, targeting the levels of 7,000 and 7,100.

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Gold Prices Return to Growth

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Yesterday, gold prices rose for the third consecutive day after the Federal Reserve announced the widely anticipated rate cut. Silver also soared to record highs. The price of gold increased by 0.5% and approached the mark of $4,248 per ounce, as treasury yields and the dollar declined following the last FOMC meeting of the year.

The US central bank lowered interest rates for the third meeting in a row, maintaining the probability of only one rate cut in 2026. It is worth noting that the Fed's dovish stance favorably impacts precious metals, which typically benefit from low interest rates since they do not pay interest.

Despite the cautious stance of the Fed, investors seem to interpret this as a signal for further monetary easing in the future, which has spurred demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency instability. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide and the uncertainty around economic growth prospects, the appeal of gold as a safe asset is only increasing.

In addition to gold, silver is also showing impressive dynamics, soaring to record heights. Silver's dual role as a precious metal and an industrial commodity makes it particularly attractive in the current economic environment. On one hand, like gold, silver serves as a protective asset during periods of economic uncertainty. On the other hand, rising demand for silver in industries such as solar energy and electronics supports its price.

Experts predict that the rally in precious metals could continue into next year, especially if the Fed maintains its dovish monetary policy. However, it is essential to remember that the precious metals market can be volatile, and investors should exercise caution when making investment decisions.

This year, gold has appreciated by more than 60%, while silver has more than doubled, with both metals showing their best annual performance since 1979. This rapid growth has been supported by active purchases from central banks and capital flows from government bonds and currencies. According to the World Gold Council, investment volumes in gold-backed exchange-traded funds have increased every month this year, except for May.

Buyers need to target the nearest resistance at $4,249. This will allow them to aim for $4,304, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,372. In the event of a drop in gold prices, bears will try to take control at $4,186. If they succeed, a breakout below this level will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,126, with the potential to reach $4,062.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin still holds potential for recovery

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The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by a quarter point and adjust its more dovish expectations for the coming year to a more conservative approach has weakened the positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum, leading to sell-offs of many altcoins in the cryptocurrency market.

However, there is a ray of hope that the market can weather these developments. Yesterday, US Senator Cynthia Lummis announced her intention to release a draft bill outlining the structure of the crypto market by the end of this week. This will allow industry representatives and both parties to review the bill before consideration next week.

Senator Lummis's statement is undoubtedly an important step toward establishing clear rules for the cryptocurrency market in the US. The absence of structured regulation has long been a significant barrier to the industry's further development, creating uncertainty for investors and firms dealing with digital assets. Defining the status of cryptocurrencies—whether as securities or commodities—will be a cornerstone for subsequent regulatory decisions. The upcoming Senate vote could be a turning point for the US crypto market. If the bill is passed, it will not only attract new investments to the country but also enable American companies to compete more confidently on the global stage. Additionally, clear regulations will reduce the risks of fraud and other abuses, positively influencing consumer trust in cryptocurrencies.

A thorough review of the bill's text by industry representatives and both parties is critical for ensuring its effectiveness and balance. Only through collaborative efforts can a regulatory framework be established that fosters healthy and sustainable development of the cryptocurrency market in the US.

As mentioned earlier, the US Senate is expected to vote on the cryptocurrency market structure bill in December. The most significant aspect of this bill is that it will determine whether cryptocurrencies are classified as securities or commodities, thereby aiming to eliminate much of the uncertainty surrounding crypto regulation in the US.

Trading recommendations:

In terms of the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently aiming to reclaim the $90,800 level, which would open a direct path to $93,000, and from there, it would not be far to $95,000. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $97,300, and a breakthrough above this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the $88,100 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,800, with the furthest target being the $83,200 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,233 level opens a direct path to $3,349. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,474, and surpassing this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and a renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,126 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $3,023, with the furthest target being the $2,924 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Results of December FOMC Meeting

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The US dollar found itself under pressure again after representatives of the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate for the third consecutive time and maintained their forecast for only one more rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The committee also made minor adjustments to its statement, indicating greater uncertainty about when the next rate cut might occur. This put pressure on the US dollar, although not as significantly as many traders had anticipated.

While the rate cut was expected, it sparked a wave of discussion among analysts. There are concerns that further easing of monetary policy could lead to heightened inflation, which, despite the Fed's efforts, continues to remain above the target level of 2%. Some experts believe that a more cautious approach to rate cuts would have been wiser, as two Fed officials stated after the meeting. President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Jeff Schmid, and President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Austan Goolsbee, both advocated for keeping rates unchanged.

Nonetheless, the Fed maintains that a modest rate cut is necessary to support economic growth amid slowing labor market momentum.

In a post-meeting conversation with journalists, Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed has taken sufficient measures to strengthen the economy despite employment threats, while keeping interest rates at a sufficiently high level to continue applying pressure on prices. He stated that further normalization of their policy should help stabilize the labor market and enable inflation to return to a downward trend towards 2%.

When asked whether a rate reduction was a necessary condition, Powell avoided a direct answer but added that he does not consider changes in rates as a baseline scenario.

Currently, investors and traders have adjusted their forecasts for interest rate cuts next year from three to two. The disagreements and forecasts presented on Wednesday highlight the debates among policymakers regarding what poses a greater threat to the US economy: weakness in the labor market or persistent inflation.

The current unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, up from 4.1%. Prices, according to the Fed's preferred inflation measure, have increased by 2.8% year-over-year as of September, significantly above the central bank's target of 2%.

In their new economic projections, officials indicate one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. However, the outlook for interest rates remains highly contentious. Seven officials expressed support for maintaining rates at their current level throughout 2026, while eight supported at least two rate cuts. The Fed also raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from the previously anticipated 1.8%. They predict inflation to decrease to 2.4% next year from 2.6%.

The decision to lower interest rates exerted pressure on the dollar.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the level of 1.1710. Achieving this will allow them to target a test at 1.1725. From there, they could aim for 1.1750, although doing so without support from major players could prove challenging. The ultimate target will be the peak at 1.1777. In the event of a decline, I expect significant action from major buyers around the 1.1675 level. If there is no activity there, it would be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1650 or to open long positions from 1.1615.

For the current technical outlook for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. This will enable them to target 1.3420, above which breaking through may be quite difficult. The further target will be the area around 1.3440. Should the pair decline, bears will attempt to take control at the 1.3350 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could significantly undermine bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3320 with the potential to reach 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.63 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. The Fed's decision aligned with the expectations of many analysts. The dollar's weakening after this news was immediate. Investors redirected their assets toward currencies with higher yields, leading to an increase in demand for the yen and, consequently, strengthening its position. Given that the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates next week, the decline of the USD/JPY pair seemed entirely understandable.

Today, the BSI Business Conditions Index for large manufacturers in Japan was released, showing growth and exceeding economists' forecasts. However, this did not provide strong support for the yen. Considering that a significant portion of yesterday's sell-off has already been priced in, be very cautious with sales. Despite the Fed's dovish stance, the dollar is relatively comfortable against the Japanese yen, which could spark a new wave of growth in USD/JPY.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.25 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 156.61 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.61, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.74 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.25 and 156.61.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.74 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.29 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from this level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.25 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 155.74 and 155.29.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3318 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the British pound. The Fed's decision to cut rates was anticipated. In justifying their decision, Fed officials cited the slowdown in labor market growth. Immediately after this, the British pound showed strong growth, continuing its bullish run against the US dollar. The strengthening of the pound is associated with expectations that the Bank of England, unlike the Fed, may maintain a restrictive monetary stance in the near future.

Today, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in the first half of the day. His statements are expected to clarify the BoE's future monetary regulatory strategy. Given recent discussions of possible rate cuts by the BoE, traders and investors will pay particular attention to his analysis of the UK's economic situation, considering the latest data on inflation and the labor market. A detailed examination of his words will allow market participants to form a more complete picture of the prospects for the British economic system and possible scenarios for the development of monetary policy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3373 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 1.3399 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3399, I intend to exit the market and sell immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry level. Expectations of strong pound growth can only arise after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3354 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3399.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3354 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3329 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from this level. Sellers of the pound will show their strength in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of 1.3373 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3354 and 1.3329.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1645 came at a moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips.

The day before, the Federal Open Market Committee voted, with a majority (9 to 3), to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%, establishing a target range of 3.5%-3.75%. This action resulted in a weakening of the US dollar and a strengthening of the euro. Proponents of monetary policy easing insisted on the need to stimulate the economy amid a slowdown in labor-market growth. However, the long-term effects of this decision remain unclear. Many experts hold different views on the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy and the potential risks they entail. In particular, there are doubts that the modest rate cut and the launch of a bond-buying program will significantly impact the labor market or investment and consumer activity. Meanwhile, some experts believe this will help avoid an economic downturn and support growth amid global instability.

Regarding today's data, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro's direction. The upcoming unemployment report in Italy is not expected to substantially influence market sentiment. If the unemployment rate exceeds forecasts, it may raise concerns about economic growth prospects and, consequently, weaken the euro. On the other hand, positive data could strengthen the position of the European currency.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at a price around 1.1697 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1727. At 1.1727, I intend to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1681 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1727.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1681 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1697 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1681 and 1.1655.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 11: S&P 500 and NASDAQ navigate headwinds

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 1.05%.

The rally in the stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has come to a halt as disappointing results from Oracle Corp. exerted pressure on tech stocks. Investors are also reassessing their positions in light of the reality of a more cautious approach to future rate cuts.

Oracle's earnings report, which fell short of expectations, raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in Oracle's shares triggered a chain reaction, affecting other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Investors fear that current interest rates, despite the potential for future cuts, are already negatively impacting corporate earnings, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like technology.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 dropped by more than 1.5%, and the sell-off of tech stocks in Asia neutralized earlier gains in the regional stock index. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.8%. Shares of Oracle, whose fate is closely tied to the AI boom, plummeted by more than 10% in after-hours trading in the US after second-quarter cloud service sales came in slightly below analyst estimates.

As noted earlier, the Fed lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time, and Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the strengthening economy as the inflationary impact of Trump's tariff policy eases. This marked the first instance since 2019 in which three representatives voted against the monetary policy decision, with opinions divided across the political spectrum. The Fed chair also suggested that the central bank has taken sufficient measures to stabilize the labor market while keeping interest rates high enough to continue exerting pressure on prices. He emphasized the importance of upcoming economic reports, advising caution when assessing labor market data due to technical distortions arising from the government shutdown and data outages.

In Japan, demand for bonds reached its highest level since 2020. Yields across the curve hit multi-year highs amid renewed concerns about fiscal policy and rising expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting next week.

In the commodities market, oil prices were in focus after the US seized a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela, deterring further supplies from the South American country and raising the risk of conflict.

Turning to the technical analysis of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,854. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,874, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,819. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,792 and open the way to $6,772.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.