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USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of 150.15 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 50 points.

Today, the second half of the trading day is packed with economic data, but the focus will be on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index. Stronger-than-expected personal spending data could indicate that inflation remains persistent, which would disrupt the Federal Reserve's plans for monetary easing. This scenario would likely force the Fed to maintain high interest rates at the next meeting, making the U.S. dollar more attractive to investors seeking yield. Conversely, weaker personal spending data could reinforce expectations of rate cuts, weakening the dollar. This makes today's economic releases critical for the short-term dynamics of the currency market.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches 150.56 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 151.19. At 151.19, I will exit long positions and initiate short trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. This trade assumes a bullish correction. Important! Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity will arise if the price tests 150.21 twice while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward, targeting resistance levels of 150.56 and 151.19.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY once it breaks below 150.21 (red line on the chart), expecting a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 149.60, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25 point rebound. Downward pressure on the pair could emerge at any moment today. Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling USD/JPY if 150.56 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward, with a target at 150.21 and 149.60.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – essential for determining overbought and oversold market conditions.

Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entries. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, traders risk losing their entire deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, having a clear trading plan is crucial, as demonstrated in the strategies above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on market fluctuations often result in losses for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of 1.2592 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point. As a result, the pair rose by 15 points, after which demand for the pound weakened.

The lack of UK economic data did not help the pound recover, shifting the market's focus to U.S. economic releases. Market attention is now on upcoming U.S. inflation data, which could significantly influence the dollar's trajectory. Persistently high inflation may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a more aggressive policy stance, strengthening the dollar. Conversely, weaker macroeconomic data could pressure the dollar, opening opportunities for a pound recovery.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index will provide valuable insights into inflation and consumer sentiment. Changes in consumer spending and income levels will help assess the overall economic condition and purchasing power. The U.S. goods trade balance will reflect the difference between exports and imports, indicating the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers and overall dollar demand. Strong data in these areas may lead to a dollar rally, pushing GBP/USD lower.

Additionally, the Chicago PMI, which measures business activity in the region, serves as a key national economic indicator. A reading below 50 points would indicate a contraction in production, potentially weakening the dollar further.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if the price reaches 1.2605 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.2635. At 1.2635, I will exit long positions and initiate short trades in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. The pound's upward momentum today depends on weak U.S. economic data. Important! Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity will arise if the price tests 1.2588 twice while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward, targeting resistance levels of 1.2605 and 1.2635.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound once it breaks below 1.2588 (red line on the chart), expecting a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2561, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25 point rebound. Sellers will become more active in response to strong U.S. economic data. Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the pound if 1.2605 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward, with a target at 1.2588 and 1.2561.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – essential for determining overbought and oversold market conditions.

Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entries. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If trading during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, traders risk losing their entire deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, having a clear trading plan is crucial, as demonstrated in the strategies above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on market fluctuations often result in losses for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for February 28, 2025: buy above $2,844 (200 EMA - oversold)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,860 within the downtrend channel forming since February 19. In the European session, gold reached the bottom of the downtrend channel around 2,851 and almost reached the 200 EMA.

During the American session yesterday, the metal started a strong technical correction and is now reaching oversold levels. A technical bounce will likely occur at about 2,844 or 2,851, and the price could reach 5/8 of Murray located at 2,890.

The eagle indicator reached the extremely oversold zone. So, we believe that we could expect a technical bounce in the next few days. If gold consolidates above 2,844, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy.

On the contrary, in case gold falls below the 200 EMA, it could remain under bearish pressure and is expected to reach the pivot point around 4/8 Murray located at 2,812.

Technically, we expect gold to recover its value in the next few hours or next week. It is expected to return to 2,890 or around the psychological level of 2,900. We are likely to look for buying opportunities above the current price levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for February 28, 2025: sell below 1.0430 (200 EMA - 5/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, EUR/USD is trading around 1.0398 within the downtrend channel forming on the H4 chart since February 25th, below the 21 SMA, and below the 200 EMA with a bearish bias.

The euro could recover some of the losses in the next few hours as the 5/8 Murray represents a good support. However, we see strong pressure on the euro. This suggests opening short positions at about 1.0430, where the 200 EMA is located.

Should the euro reach the 1.0424 - 1.04 30 zone, it will be seen as a clear signal to sell with the first target at 1.0297. EUR/USD could even reach 4/8 Murray at 1.0253.

On the contrary, in case the euro consolidates above 1.0430, the bullish cycle could resume. Hence, we could see the euro reach 6/8 Murray around the psychological level of 1.0500. EUR/USD could even reach 7/8 Murray at 1.0620.

Technically, the euro is under bearish pressure. So, below 1.0500, any technical rebound will be seen as a signal to sell in the short term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28 (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of 1.0407 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and changes in U.S. consumer spending levels will play a crucial role in determining the dollar's direction in the second half of the day. A steady increase in PCE, reflecting strong consumer behavior, will strengthen the dollar, signaling a healthy economy and the potential for interest rates to remain high. Conversely, a decline in consumer spending could weaken the dollar, indicating slower economic growth and a possible need for monetary easing. Investors will closely monitor these figures to assess the resilience of the U.S. economy and the potential returns on dollar-denominated assets.

Additional volatility may also arise from data on changes in consumer income levels, the U.S. goods trade balance, and the Chicago PMI index. If these figures deviate significantly from expectations, they could act as a market-moving catalyst.

For my intraday strategy, I will focus on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches 1.0409 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.0449. At 1.0449, I will exit long positions and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point move downward. Euro growth today will depend on weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity will arise if the price tests 1.0383 twice while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward, targeting the resistance levels of 1.0409 and 1.0449.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.0383 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0341, where I will exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return after strong U.S. inflation data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro if 1.0409 is tested twice, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward, with a target at 1.0383 and 1.0341.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the asset.
• Thick green line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the asset.
• Thick red line – expected price where Take Profit orders or manual profit-taking should be considered, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – essential for determining overbought and oversold market conditions.

Important: Beginner forex traders should exercise caution when making market entries. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss protection, a trader can quickly deplete their entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, having a clear trading plan is crucial, as demonstrated in the strategies above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions often lead to losses in intraday trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Adjustment of Levels and Targets for the U.S. Session on February 28th

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Due to cautious market sentiment following yesterday's comments from Donald Trump and a major sell-off in risk assets, there was little notable activity in terms of trades during the first half of the day. The British pound nearly provided an entry point under the Mean Reversion strategy, but a reversal did not materialize.

Disappointing economic data from Germany and France weighed on the euro earlier in the day. This negative trend highlights persistent weakness in consumer demand in the eurozone's largest economy, adding pressure on the single currency. Traders also fear that declining consumer activity could further delay the region's economic recovery, which, as reflected in yesterday's reports, is already struggling. Additionally, expectations of future ECB rate cuts continue to dampen enthusiasm among euro buyers.

This afternoon, the focus will shift to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key indicator for U.S. inflation trends. A higher-than-expected reading could trigger a strong rally in the U.S. dollar, as it would suggest that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts. Alongside this, data on consumer spending, personal income, trade balance, and the Chicago PMI index will serve as the final macroeconomic events of the week. Weak figures could erode the dollar's strength.

If the economic data is strong, I will focus on implementing the Momentum strategy. If the market fails to react decisively, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.0405 could push EUR/USD towards 1.0415 and 1.0450.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.0385 could drive the pair down to 1.0355 and 1.0330.

GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.2600 could lead to an advance toward 1.2630 and 1.2720.
• Selling on a breakout of 1.2575 could trigger a decline to 1.2530 and 1.2480.

USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 150.50 could push USD/JPY towards 150.70 and 151.30.
• Selling on a breakout of 150.20 could accelerate losses toward 149.60 and 149.30.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal Trading) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.0415 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.0374 and returns above it.

GBP/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.2615 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.2560 and returns above it.

AUD/USD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 0.6235 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 0.6197 and returns above it.

USD/CAD

• I will look for selling opportunities if the pair fails to hold above 1.4455 and drops back below this level.
• I will consider buying if the pair fails to sustain a move below 1.4423 and returns above it.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 28th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2607 level as a key decision point for entering the market. Looking at the 5-minute chart, the price moved higher but fell just short of testing and forming a false breakout around 1.2607, so I ended up without any trades. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The absence of economic data from the UK has not helped the pound recover, so the focus now shifts to U.S. data releases. Key figures such as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, changes in household spending and income, and the goods trade balance will dictate the dollar's direction. If the U.S. reports are strong, another decline in GBP/USD could occur by the end of the week. If sellers attempt to push the pair to new weekly lows, I plan to enter long positions only after a false breakout at 1.2574. The immediate target for buyers will be 1.2624, which the pair failed to reach in the first half of the day. A breakout and retest from above will confirm a new buying opportunity, aiming for 1.2668, which would halt the bearish correction. The farthest target will be 1.2711, where I plan to take profit.

If GBP/USD declines and bulls fail to defend 1.2574 in the second half of the day, selling pressure on the pound will increase significantly. In this scenario, I will only consider buying after a false breakout at 1.2528. I plan to open long positions on an immediate rebound from 1.2480, aiming for an intraday correction of 30-35 points.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers missed an opportunity earlier, and now everything depends on U.S. economic data. The primary task for bears is to defend the 1.2624 resistance, where the moving averages also favor sellers. A false breakout at this level will provide an entry point for short positions, aiming for 1.2574. A break and retest from below will trigger stop-loss orders, opening the path toward 1.2528. The farthest target is 1.2480, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level could reinforce the downtrend.

If demand for the pound returns in the second half of the day and sellers fail to defend 1.2624, the pair could continue its bullish trend. In this case, I will delay short positions until a test of 1.2668. I will enter shorts only after a failed breakout at that level. If there is no downward movement even at 1.2668, I will look for short positions on an immediate rebound from 1.2711, aiming for a 30-35 point correction.

COT Report Analysis:

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report from February 18 showed an increase in both long and short positions, with long positions rising at a higher pace. This indicates renewed interest in buying the pound, but the market remains in relative balance between bulls and bears.

Data on UK inflation growth and retail sales, which continue pushing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) higher, are likely to force the Bank of England to adopt a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. This could support the pound in the long run.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 4,477 to 73,477, while short non-commercial positions rose by 1,888 to 74,143. As a result, the gap between long and short positions decreased by 3,870.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands:

If the pair declines, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands at 1.2574 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Identifies the current trend by smoothing out volatility and market noise.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Measures the relationship between 12-period EMA, 26-period EMA, and a 9-period SMA.
• Bollinger Bands: Measures market volatility using a 20-period moving average with upper and lower bands.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Include speculators, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: The total long exposure held by non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: The total short exposure held by non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on February 28th (Analysis of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0404 level as a key decision point for entering the market. Looking at the 5-minute chart, we see that the price rise and a false breakout at this level provided a short position entry. However, at the time of writing this new analysis, the pair had not yet shown a strong downward movement. The technical outlook has been adjusted for the second half of the day.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Disappointing retail sales data from several Eurozone countries has limited the euro's upward correction against the U.S. dollar. However, more significant U.S. economic reports are still ahead, which means that market movement is inevitable. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and changes in U.S. consumer spending will be key factors in determining the dollar's direction. If these indicators rise, the U.S. dollar will strengthen, leading to further EUR/USD declines, which I plan to take advantage of. A false breakout at the new support level of 1.0383 will provide a good buying opportunity, targeting the 1.0415 resistance, formed at the end of yesterday's session. A breakout and retest of this range from above will confirm the correct long entry, aiming for 1.0440. The farthest target is 1.0466, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no buying activity around 1.0383 by the end of the week, which is unlikely, euro bulls will lose control, and sellers could push the pair down to 1.0354, marking a new weekly low. Only after a false breakout at this level will I consider buying the euro. I plan to open long positions on an immediate rebound from 1.0321, aiming for a 30-35 point intraday correction.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers are acting cautiously, relying on fundamental factors. If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day following weak U.S. data and signs of easing inflationary pressure, the 1.0415 resistance will be a key area to defend. A false breakout at this level will confirm a short position entry, targeting 1.0383 support. A break and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, will offer another opportunity to sell, pushing the pair toward 1.0354, reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the market. The farthest target for shorts is 1.0321, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and sellers fail to show activity at 1.0415, which is unlikely, buyers could regain control and push the pair higher. In this case, I will delay short positions until a test of the next resistance at 1.0440, where the moving averages favor sellers. I will sell only after an unsuccessful breakout. I also plan to sell on an immediate rebound from 1.0466, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.

COT Report Analysis:

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report from February 18 showed an increase in long positions and a significant reduction in short positions. The number of buyers of the euro has risen again, largely due to ongoing negotiations between Russia and the U.S. regarding the Ukraine conflict resolution. The potential end of military actions in the coming months boosts demand for risk assets, supporting the troubled euro. However, sellers still dominate the market, meaning that buying at highs should be approached with caution.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 4,726 to 170,320, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 8,279 to 221,740. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 2,246.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring below the 30- and 50-day moving averages, signaling a continuation of the pair's downtrend.

Bollinger Bands:

If the pair declines, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands at 1.0380 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Identifies the current trend by smoothing out volatility and market noise.
• MACD Indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Measures the relationship between 12-period EMA, 26-period EMA, and a 9-period SMA.
• Bollinger Bands: Measures market volatility using a 20-period moving average with upper and lower bands.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Include speculators, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: The total long exposure held by non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: The total short exposure held by non-commercial traders.
• Net Non-Commercial Position: The difference between short and long positions among non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

25% US tariffs hit Europe as markets collapse, euro falls

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Tech sector collapse

US stock indexes S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended trading on Thursday with significant declines. The main culprit of the decline was Nvidia, a leading chip maker, whose shares collapsed after the publication of the financial report. Investors who expected the artificial intelligence (AI) sector to continue its rapid growth were disappointed. At the same time, new macroeconomic data points to a slowdown in the US economy, increasing market concerns.

Nvidia Slips

Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares plunged 8.5%, wiping out $274 billion in market capitalization after a weaker-than-expected quarterly gross profit forecast. Even the upbeat revenue forecast failed to offset pessimistic investor expectations, adding to the pressure on the entire tech sector.

Viral Crash: Chip Sector Under Attack

Nvidia's slump has caused a chain reaction among other semiconductor makers. Broadcom (AVGO.O) shares fell more than 7%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) shares lost 5%. As a result, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) fell 6.1%, one of its biggest declines in recent memory.

Trump's Trade Policy Creates New Risks

The stock market is also closely monitoring the escalation of trade barriers. Former President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on European cars and a range of other goods. He also said tariffs would go into effect on Mexico and Canada on Tuesday.

These moves could escalate trade tensions and lead to retaliatory moves from other countries, adding to pressure on markets.

Awaiting Key Inflation Data

Investors now turn their attention to the upcoming release of the Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index, a key inflation measure that the Federal Reserve uses to decide rates.

The data, due out on Friday, is expected to provide a clearer picture of the Fed's next move. The market is expected to price in at least a 50 basis point rate cut by December.

Salesforce Disappoints

Salesforce (CRM.N) dealt an additional blow to the tech sector. The business software company issued a revenue forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, which was below analysts' expectations.

Against this backdrop, Salesforce shares fell by 4%, exacerbating the overall decline in the tech sector.

Financial giants on a swing: Snowflake and Warner Bros grow, Viatris in crisis

The market remains unstable, and volatility affects even the largest players. While some companies demonstrate strong growth, others are losing investor confidence.

Snowflake (SNOW.N) confidently went up, adding 4.5%. The data analytics provider issued an optimistic revenue forecast for the 2026 fiscal year, exceeding analysts' expectations. This caused a wave of positive sentiment among investors and strengthened the company's position in the cloud technology sector.

Viatris (VTRS.O), on the other hand, collapsed by 15%. The drugmaker presented a disappointing forecast for the year, which caused a sharp negative reaction from the market. Investors are concerned about the slowdown in the pharmaceutical sector and the deterioration of the company's financial performance.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) added 4.8%. The company said it expects streaming revenue to double this year, which spurred demand for its shares. This forecast instills confidence in the further development of the digital entertainment industry, despite the general problems of the media industry.

Europe under pressure: new US tariffs hit markets

European financial markets felt the effect of the threat of 25% tariffs from the United States. Yesterday, European stock markets recorded a decline, and futures signal the possibility of further losses.

In addition, the euro fell to a two-week low against the dollar, which indicates growing concerns among investors. The protectionist policy pursued by the United States threatens the export prospects of European manufacturers, which is inevitably reflected in quotes.

Canadian dollar slips as Trump refuses to back down

The Canadian currency continues to slide, hitting a new 3.5-week low. Investors see little cause for optimism as Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will go into effect next week.

It was previously thought that the deadline could be delayed by a month, but it has now become clear that there will be no delay. This adds to the pressure on the Canadian economy, as the country's dependence on trade with the US remains high.

China in a difficult situation: the market awaits the reaction of the authorities

The reaction of Chinese markets to the threat of an additional 10% tariff from the US has been mixed. The main problem is the uncertainty of the timing. Next week, China's National People's Congress will meet, and analysts believe that the authorities will be forced to announce new economic stimulus measures.

The focus remains on the Chinese yuan. Despite the turbulence, the People's Bank of China has taken steps to stabilize the currency by setting a tighter official exchange rate. This shows the authorities' desire to support the yuan and prevent sharp fluctuations.

Australian and New Zealand dollars under pressure

Markets traditionally view the Australian and New Zealand dollars as more liquid substitutes for the Chinese yuan. Therefore, threats of new tariffs against China have immediately affected these currencies.

Both currencies have come under significant pressure, while the yuan itself is showing signs of recovery after weeks of decline. The People's Bank of China is actively adjusting the situation, trying to maintain financial stability in the country ahead of key policy decisions.

Asian markets in the red: pressure mounts

Asian stock markets ended the week on a negative note, reflecting growing concerns about the global economy. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) fell 1.7%, while Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) lost a relatively modest 0.5%.

However, the biggest declines were seen in Japan's Nikkei (.N225) and South Korea's Kospi (.KS11), which fell almost 3%. Pressure on markets is increasing, and investors are looking for safe assets, which is causing the Japanese yen to strengthen.

Japanese yen strengthens: a safe haven in action

Amid market volatility, the yen was the only currency to show significant gains against the dollar on Friday. This dynamic is traditional: investors view the Japanese currency as a safe haven asset in times of turbulence.

Additionally, the rate was affected by falling US Treasury yields, which reached new two-week lows. This reflects traders' concerns that a potential trade war could hit not only the global economy, but also America itself, which is already showing signs of slowing down.

Key US inflation indicator to be released today

Investors are focused on the release of the PCE deflator, a key inflation indicator tracked by the Federal Reserve, today. This data will help assess the likelihood of future changes in US monetary policy.

The market is increasingly betting that the Fed will stick to a soft monetary policy. It is now almost certain that two rate cuts of 0.25% will take place in June and September.

The European Central Bank is preparing to cut rates

The first to enter the world arena will be European regulators: next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a meeting where it is expected to announce a rate cut of 0.25%.

However, the further strategy remains unclear. Some ECB officials hint that the pace of easing may slow down depending on the macroeconomic situation. This creates uncertainty for markets and adds volatility to the forecasts for exchange rates.

Investors await signals, but the market remains under pressure

Financial markets around the world are showing increased nervousness. The threat of trade wars, macroeconomic uncertainty and upcoming central bank decisions make the market extremely sensitive to any news.

Key events that will determine further dynamics:

• US inflation data;

• European Central Bank meeting;

• Reaction of world currencies to regulators' actions.

The market may face sharp movements in the coming days, and investors remain waiting for new signals that will help shape a strategy for the near future.

Cryptocurrencies Under Attack: Bitcoin Loses Ground

A new wave of sell-offs is underway in the digital asset market. Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipped below the key $80,000 level, demonstrating a 27% drop from its all-time high of $109,071.86 on January 20.

The sharp decline in the rate is due to several factors:

• A general decrease in risk appetite amid market instability;

• A strengthening US dollar, which traditionally puts pressure on crypto assets;

• Technical corrections after the rapid growth of recent months.

As investors assess the prospects for further movement, the crypto market remains extremely volatile.

Trump Focuses on Trade and Immigration, but the Crypto World Reacts in Its Own Way

Since returning to the White House, Donald Trump has focused on international trade issues and tightening immigration policies. However, his influence has unexpectedly extended to the crypto market.

Recently, meme coins associated with Trump and his family have gained particular popularity. The most attention has been attracted by the $Trump and $Melania tokens, which have caused a surge in speculation among investors.

Although these assets have no fundamental value, their volatility and popularity in the trading community demonstrate how closely the crypto market is intertwined with political events.

Financial markets await new benchmarks

The current situation shows that global markets are going through a period of high uncertainty:

• The technology sector is under pressure due to the emergence of new competitors;

• The cryptocurrency market is facing sharp corrections;

• Global markets are waiting for new decisions in the field of monetary policy.

Investors remain tense, waiting for new drivers that will determine the direction of capital flows in the coming weeks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD: Will the Pair Continue Its Rally Near Multi-Week Highs?

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The USD/CAD pair remains near multi-week highs as it extends its positive momentum for the sixth consecutive day, supported by a breakout above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Spot prices reached a nearly four-week high around 1.4450–1.4455 during the Asian session, driven by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar.

Yesterday's U.S. GDP data indicated that inflationary pressures continue to rise. Coupled with concerns that President Donald Trump's policies could further fuel inflation, this reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance. These factors have strengthened the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, allowing it to recover from its two-month low and providing additional support for USD/CAD.

Meanwhile, fears over the economic impact of Trump's proposed tariffs are weighing on the Canadian dollar. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico are scheduled to take effect on March 4 as part of Trump's policy agenda, further undermining CAD's position.

Additionally, moderate declines in crude oil prices have created an additional negative backdrop for the Canadian dollar, as the currency is highly correlated with commodity markets. This further supports the bullish momentum in USD/CAD. However, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data.

The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, set to be released at the start of the North American session, will have a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook. This data will play a key role in shaping demand for the U.S. dollar in the near term. Additionally, oil price movements could create short-term trading opportunities for USD/CAD today.

From a technical perspective, mixed oscillators on the daily chart suggest that the pair's rally may pause temporarily, allowing for a minor corrective pullback before the next directional move.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. February 28th. The Uptrend Has Come to an End

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday, first consolidating below the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.2642 and then breaching the support zone at 1.2611–1.2620. This zone had provided support for bulls for over a week, and its breakdown signifies that bears have taken control. Consequently, I expect the pound's decline to continue towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2538. A rebound from this level could signal a reversal in favor of the pound, though a significant rally is unlikely.

The wave structure remains clear. The most recent completed downward wave did not break below the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave surpassed the prior peak. This suggests that the bullish trend is still in play. However, graphical analysis indicates that at the very least, we are in for a downward wave. The pound had shown strong growth recently, but now the trend may shift to a bearish phase.

Thursday's fundamental backdrop was entirely in favor of bearish traders. Yesterday, the first key reports of the week were released in the U.S.. Although the market is constantly reacting to the flood of news from Donald Trump, economic reports still carry more weight. The final GDP figure for Q4 came in at 2.3%, marking a 0.8% slowdown from the third quarter. While this does not indicate an impending U.S. recession, as it represents just one quarter's performance, it does highlight that economic growth cannot be sustained indefinitely, especially under the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy. Meanwhile, durable goods orders surged by 3.1% month-over-month, significantly exceeding market expectations. Additionally, December's data was revised upward from -2.2% to -1.8%, further bolstering sentiment. As a result, GBP/USD began to fall, bears took charge, and I expect further downside movement.

On the four-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar following the formation of bearish divergence across both indicators. This suggests that the decline may continue towards the lower boundary of the upward trend channel. However, since this channel still indicates bullish sentiment, there is no reason to expect a prolonged or deep decline for the pound just yet. At present, no new divergences are forming on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among non-commercial traders became less bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 4,477, while the number of short positions rose by 1,888. Although bulls have lost their dominance in the market, bears have yet to significantly increase their selling pressure. The current balance between long and short positions remains virtually even, at 73,000 vs. 74,000.

In my view, the pound remains poised for further declines, and the COT data indicates a slow but steady strengthening of bearish positions. Over the past three months, long positions have decreased from 120,000 to 73,000, while short positions have only slightly decreased from 75,000 to 74,000. I believe that over time, professional traders will continue to reduce their long positions or increase their shorts, as most of the supportive factors for the pound have already been exhausted. The currency has received temporary support from solid UK economic data, but graphical analysis currently points to further declines.

Key Economic Events for the U.S. and UK:

• U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (13:30 UTC).
• U.S. Personal Income and Spending Data (13:30 UTC).

On Friday, the economic calendar includes two moderate-impact U.S. reports, meaning that the influence of fundamentals on trader sentiment in the second half of the day could be moderate.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Short positions were viable after the pair consolidated below the 1.2611–1.2620 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.2538. These trades can still be held open. At this stage, I would refrain from considering buy positions, as bulls have been attacking for an extended period and now need a break.

The Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the four-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock Market on February 28th: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Knocked Out

.Futures on U.S. stock indices plunged, continuing their second consecutive bearish week. During today's Asian trading session, S&P 500 futures lost 0.3%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ declined by 0.5%. The sell-off in equities intensified in Asia, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors avoided risky bets amid increasing clarity regarding President Donald Trump's tariff policies.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, the S&P 500 fell by 1.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 lost 2.8%. Nvidia Corp. shares dropped by 8.5%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds declined to approximately 4.23%, marking the lowest level seen since December.

The latest round of Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China triggered a sell-off in risk assets, driven by fears of a potential negative impact on global economic growth. Bitcoin, often referred to as "Trump's trade," dropped by more than 10%, while the U.S. Dollar Strength Index rose.

Yesterday, Trump confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, while Chinese imports will face an additional 10% levy starting in April. Economists warn that these tariffs could harm U.S. economic growth, fuel inflation, and potentially push Mexico and Canada into recession. China has vowed to take all necessary countermeasures against U.S. actions.

Trump's decision has sparked widespread criticism both within the U.S. and internationally. Many lawmakers and business leaders have expressed concerns about the potential negative consequences for the American economy and trade relations. They argue that tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers, reduced competitiveness for American companies, and instability in the global economy. China's possible retaliatory measures could include imposing tariffs on American goods, reducing imports from the U.S., and implementing other economic sanctions. The escalation of the U.S.-China trade war could have serious repercussions for the global economy, including slower economic growth, rising inflation, and heightened financial market volatility. Mexico and Canada are also considering countermeasures against the U.S., which may involve tariffs on American goods and formal complaints to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In the commodities market, oil has suffered monthly losses, while gold is on track for its first weekly decline this year.Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the decline continues. The primary objective for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance at $5,877, which could pave the way for further growth and a move toward $5,897. A key priority for bulls will also be securing control above $5,915, which would strengthen their position. If risk appetite weakens and the market moves downward, buyers must step in at $5,854. A breakdown below this level would push the index back to $5,833 and could open the door to $5,813.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 28/02/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

BTC/USD Analysis – February 28th

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart appears quite clear. After a prolonged and complex corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e) from March 14 to August 5, a new impulsive wave began, forming a five-wave pattern. Given the size of wave 1, the fifth wave was likely truncated. Based on this, I did not expect and still do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Another key observation is wave 4, which formed a three-wave structure, confirming the validity of the current wave count. Bitcoin's previous rally was fueled by continuous institutional investment, government purchases, and pension fund inflows. However, Donald Trump's policies have driven investors out of the market, and no trend can remain bullish indefinitely. The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble the first impulse wave, indicating that we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could persist for months.

Over the past eight days, Bitcoin has plunged by $18,000, and Friday's session is not over yet. By the end of the day, we could see Bitcoin trading well below $80,000. The market is in a state of near panic, though this crash does not seem to have been triggered by a single event.

I have been warning for weeks that Trump's protectionist policies would not benefit the U.S. economy, the crypto sector, or stock markets. As we can see now, the economy is slowing down, the cryptocurrency market is collapsing, and stock indices, after two years of growth, have also begun to tumble.

There are multiple reasons for this downturn. Trump promised to create a Bitcoin reserve—but did not follow through. He introduced or plans to introduce a series of tariffs on major trading partners. In response, key trading partners are implementing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. The global economy is slowing down as a result. Trump continues to make unilateral decisions, often disrespecting international leaders.

These factors deter investors from taking risks, and Bitcoin is not considered a safe-haven asset.

Even if Trump's policies are not the direct cause of Bitcoin's crash, I expected a downturn anyway. Bitcoin has been rallying for two years, and historically, its bullish trends rarely exceed that timeframe. The wave structure signaled that wave 5 was truncated and complete, meaning the only logical next step was a decline.

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis, Bitcoin's rally is over for now. The current trend suggests a prolonged correction, which is why I previously advised against buying cryptocurrencies—and even more so now.

A break below the low of wave 4 confirms that Bitcoin has entered a downward trend, likely a corrective phase. The best strategy remains to look for selling opportunities on lower timeframes. Bitcoin could fall to $76,000 (161.8% Fibonacci level) as soon as today.

On the higher timeframes, we see a five-wave bullish structure that is now transitioning into a corrective or full-fledged bearish trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are harder to trade and often change.
2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. No movement direction is ever 100% certain. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market throws in towel

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Trouble never comes alone. The S&P 500 plunged to its lowest levels since mid-January as Donald Trump reignited tariff threats. First, negative economic data from the US, then NVIDIA's earnings report that failed to impress investors, and finally, new import tariffs forced the bulls in US equities to throw in the towel. The fire was further fueled by Tesla's sell-off, with its shares returning to levels last seen during the November presidential elections.

Markets doubt that Elon Musk, who has now taken on the ambitious task of trimming the US government workforce, will have time to focus on his own company. Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by 45% in January, serving as a catalyst for the stock's nosedive and dragging the S&P 500 down. Meanwhile, Donald Trump appears unlikely to throw a lifeline to the broad stock index.

The US president announced additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, sparking outrage in Beijing. Chinese officials have warned that if the US insists on its own course, China will have no choice but to defend its legitimate interests. According to a Harris poll for Bloomberg, 60% of Americans believe tariffs will accelerate inflation, while 44% think they will slow the economy.

US Imports from China, Mexico, and Canada

US equities face further pressure as Trump plans to introduce 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada starting in March. The close ties between US companies and their North American neighbors risk disrupting supply chains, increasing stagflation risks, and potentially triggering a recession. These concerns, combined with other bearish factors, have made individual investors the most pessimistic about the S&P 500's outlook in recent history. According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) survey, the share of bearish sentiment surged from 40.5% to 61% in just one week, marking the highest level since September 2022.

Money continues to flee the US stock market, especially since alternative opportunities abound. Delays in tariffs have fueled rallies in European and Chinese stock indices. Meanwhile, the AI hype is no longer enough to sustain investor interest in US tech giants, given rising competition from abroad. Finally, as the S&P 500 tumbles, rising US Treasury prices provide an attractive domestic alternative for capital allocation.

US equity and bond yield trends

Capital flight is a major blow to the broad market index. There's hope that Trump's tariff threats won't materialize, but for now, investors are poised to play safe.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 continues to develop a Broadening Wedge pattern on the daily chart. The short positions initiated at 6,083 and reinforced at 6,000 should be maintained, especially since the first of the two previously mentioned targets at 5,830 and 5,750 is now within reach.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Anticipated Peace in Europe Is Expected to Drive Gold Prices Lower

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After reaching a new all-time high earlier this week, gold prices have decisively declined in response to reports of successful negotiations between world leaders Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. The pressure on gold, often referred to as the "yellow metal," is fueled not only by the potential resolution of the military conflict in Europe but also by the restructuring of the global order following 30 years of U.S. dominance.

Previously, many investors purchased gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks. However, the realization that agreements between Moscow and Washington could reshape the world order and potentially end this cycle has instilled optimism, leading to weakened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the resurgence and potential growth of the U.S. dollar, driven by positive economic developments in the United States, further contribute to the negative outlook for gold.

Technical outlook and trading idea:

The current price is below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, as well as below the 5-day and 14-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the oversold zone but is declining, while the Stochastic oscillator is also nearing this zone.

Further declines in the price of gold are anticipated, especially if it drops below 2855.35. In that case, it could fall to 2785.35 as early as next week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on February 28

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Bitcoin has fallen to a new low, reaching $79,000 today. This drop is a considerable correction given the market movements this week. If there are any remaining buyers, now might be the time to consider buying the dip, as further declines could become increasingly risky. Personally, I anticipate one final downward movement before strong buying pushes the price back up to around $85,000. Unfortunately, there's currently no discussion about breaking and holding above $90,000.

Ethereum has also taken a significant hit, falling to $2,080. The $2,100 zone is the breakeven point for long-term Ethereum holders, so defending the $2,000 level will be the top priority soon. However, I anticipate that this level will be tested, and stop orders will be triggered below it before we see a rebound. The best entry points for long positions would be after this scenario plays out, with a return to $2,100.

Today, important inflation data will be released in the U.S. If inflation rises, there will be fewer reasons to buy risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum and fewer incentives for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Higher inflation will force the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy, reducing the appeal of alternative assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum may face renewed selling pressure in this environment as investors shift towards safer instruments. On the other hand, if inflation comes in lower than expected, it could pave the way for Fed policy easing, which could boost the crypto market.

Various factors also affect cryptocurrency trends, including geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, and advancements in AI technology. Even if inflation data is positive, market corrections should not be overlooked.

In terms of my intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to take advantage of any significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as I expect the medium-term bull market to remain intact.

For short-term trading, I have outlined my strategy and conditions below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the $81,100 entry point, targeting an increase to $85,200. Around $85,200, I will exit purchases and sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be bought at the lower boundary of $78,700 if there is no reaction to its breakout, with targets at $81,100 and $85,200.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the $78,700 entry point, targeting a decline to $76,600. Around $76,600, I will exit sales and buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin can also be sold at the upper boundary of $81,100 if there is no reaction to its breakout, with targets at $78,700 and $74,600.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the $2,157 entry point, targeting an increase to $2,264. Around $2,264, I will exit purchases and sell on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be bought at the lower boundary of $2,081 if there is no reaction to its breakout, with targets at $2,157 and $2,264.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the $2,081 entry point, targeting a decline to $1,993. Around $1,993, I will exit sales and buy on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, I will ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: Ethereum can also be sold at the upper boundary of $2,157 if there is no reaction to its breakout, with targets at $2,081 and $1,993.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin and Ethereum approaching critical lows

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The crypto market is still unable to overcome the bearish sentiment. Today, Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached critical levels, the breach and consolidation below which could "bury" all hopes for a market recovery this year and the renewal of all-time highs.

Yesterday, BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded a record net outflow of $418.1 million, as the cryptocurrency nosedive entered its fourth consecutive day amid mounting pressure from President Trump's tariff plans. Despite losing $741.1 million this week, IBIT remains the largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the US, with over $40.2 billion in total net inflows and $51.6 billion in assets under management. IBIT also holds a dominant 72% share of the US spot Bitcoin ETF market, accounting for $4.1 billion of Wednesday's total trading volume of $5.7 billion.

US spot Ethereum ETFs also reported net outflows totaling $94.3 million, primarily due to BlackRock's ETHA product, which saw withdrawals of $69.8 million. The total outflows over the past five days have reached $244.4 million.

Experts attribute the capital outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to several factors, including profit-taking by investors after the recent crypto rally and concerns over the future growth prospects of the digital asset market. Uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's tax policies is also weighing on the market, as investors fear that new tariffs could negatively impact global economic growth and, in turn, demand for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Despite the recent outflows, Bitcoin's long-term outlook remains optimistic. Many analysts still believe that cryptocurrency has strong growth potential and that spot ETFs will eventually attract significant capital inflows.

At the same time, interest in other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Solana is growing, as reflected in Bitwise and DTCC's plans to launch new ETFs. This could further diversify the crypto market and increase access to digital assets for both retail and institutional investors.

Technical analysis of Bitcoin

Currently, Bitcoin buyers are targeting a return to the $80,600 level, which would open a direct path to $82,300, bringing the price within reach of $83,900. The ultimate target would be the $85,600 high, surpassing which would signal a return to the medium-term bullish market. In case of a Bitcoin decline, buyers are expected around $78,700. A drop below this level could quickly push BTC down to $76,900, with the furthest downside target at $75,000.

Technical analysis of Ethereum

A clear consolidation above $2,153 would pave the way for Ethereum to reach $2,210, with the ultimate target at the one-year high of $2,263, breaking which would confirm a return to the medium-term bullish market. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected around $2,081. A break below this level could send ETH down to $2,024, with the lowest target at $1,977.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 150.10 occurred when the MACD had already moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential, particularly in a bearish market. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar.

Today, data on Tokyo's consumer price index, excluding fresh food prices, and Japan's industrial production were released, and both reports were disappointing. However, this had little impact on the USD/JPY exchange rate, likely because the market had already priced in some economic weakness and the potential for further rate hikes. Additionally, investors are currently more focused on U.S. fiscal and monetary policy. Strong inflation data in the U.S. could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive stance, which would be detrimental to the American economy but supportive of the dollar in the short term.

I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy USD/JPY when it reaches the entry point around 150.15 (green line on chart) with the goal of rising to the level of 150.84 (thicker green line on chart). At 150.84, I plan to exit the buy position and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip retracement. It is best to buy the pair during pullbacks or significant corrections. Before buying, ensure the MACD is above zero and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 149.60 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 150.15 and 150.84 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling USD/JPY after breaking below 149.60 (the red line on the chart) could lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers is 148.83, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip reversal. Selling pressure could return at any time. Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Selling is also planned if the price tests 150.15 twice while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite level of 149.60 and 148.83 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.2664 occurred when the MACD had just begun to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the optimal entry point for selling the British pound. Consequently, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.2636.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, which indicated rising inflation, along with Trump's comments on trade tariffs, pressured the British pound while strengthening the U.S. dollar. The market responded immediately, pricing in the likelihood of a more aggressive trade policy from the White House. Investors, concerned about potential rate cuts by the Bank of England, adjusted their portfolios by shifting away from risk assets and toward the safe-haven dollar.

Additionally, Trump is intensifying market anxiety by threatening new trade barriers, raising concerns about a global economic slowdown and increasing demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset. The risk of escalating trade wars is making investors cautious, leading them to avoid assets sensitive to international trade.

No UK economic data is scheduled for release today, so a strong pound recovery in the first half of the day is unlikely. It is better to trade in line with the existing downward trend, which may intensify towards the end of the month.

I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the pound at 1.2592 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2621 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.2621, I plan to exit the trade and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 pip retracement. Pound strength will likely be limited to a corrective rebound. Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 1.2578 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2592 and 1.2621 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the pound after breaking below 1.2578 (the red line on the chart) could lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 1.2552, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 pip reversal. It's best to sell the pound at higher levels. Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Selling is planned if the price tests 1.2592 twice while the MACD is overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite level of 1.2578 and 1.2552 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on February 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0469 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark. This confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a decline toward the target level of 1.0436.

The strengthening of the dollar has further pressured the euro, which is already facing challenges due to uncertainties over energy supplies and concerns about a potential recession. Recent minutes from the European Central Bank meeting indicated the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near future.

Today, traders are likely to continue monitoring economic data from the eurozone to evaluate the likelihood of these rate cuts. Special attention will be given to the differences between the German and French economies. If Germany shows signs of slowing down while France exhibits moderate growth, it could prompt a reassessment of the eurozone's overall resilience.

Geopolitical factors should not be overlooked either. The escalation of trade conflicts, similar to yesterday's market movements, could further pressure the euro.

I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2 for today's intraday strategy.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro around 1.0407 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0449. At 1.0449, I plan to exit the market and sell in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A euro rally in the first half of the day is only likely with strong economic data from Germany and France. Before entering a buy trade, ensure the MACD is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests 1.0383 twice while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0407 and 1.0449 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the euro upon reaching 1.0383 (red line on the chart), with a target of 1.0341, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 pip reversal. Selling pressure will return if economic data is weak. Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Selling is planned if the price tests 1.0407 twice while the MACD is overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposite level of 1.0383 and 1.0341 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on February 28

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The euro and the pound both experienced a decline following Trump's announcement of trade tariffs impacting several countries, including Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union.

Investor concerns are heightened by the unpredictability of Trump's trade policies and the potential negative effects of these new tariffs on the global economy. Comprehensive tariffs could lead to more serious trade wars, as retaliatory measures are likely, which could significantly affect the economies of many countries that rely heavily on international trade.

The euro is particularly vulnerable due to European countries' dependence on exports. The implementation of tariffs on EU nations could diminish the competitiveness of European goods in the global market, resulting in reduced export revenues and further weakening the euro. Additionally, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar—boosted by the increased attractiveness of U.S. assets during uncertain times—puts additional pressure on the European currency.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to follow the Mean Reversion strategy. Conversely, if the data considerably exceeds or falls short of expectations, the Momentum strategy would be more appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (on breakout):

EUR/USD

Buying on a breakout above 1.0400 could lead to a rise toward 1.0430 and 1.0460.

Selling on a breakout below 1.0375 could push the euro down to 1.0349 and 1.0320.

GBP/USD

Buying on a breakout above 1.2598 could push the pound toward 1.2630 and 1.2665.

Selling on a breakout below 1.2570 could lead to a decline toward 1.2550 and 1.2520.

USD/JPY

Buying on a breakout above 149.90 could drive the dollar up to 150.20 and 150.60.

Selling on a breakout below 149.60 could lead to a drop toward 149.30 and 148.70.

Mean Reversion Strategy (on pullbacks):

EUR/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.0413, once the price returns below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.0374, once the price returns to this level.

GBP/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.2620, once the price returns below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.2563, once the price returns to this level.

AUD/USD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6248, once the price returns below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6197, once the price returns to this level.

USD/CAD

Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.4459, once the price returns below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.4427, once the price returns to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Litecoin Cryptocurrency, Friday February 28, 2025.

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With the appearance of Divergence between the price movement of Litecoin and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator on the 4-hour chart, it confirms that in the near future the Litecoin cryptocurrency will potentially be corrected to weaken downwards where the level of 116.25 will try to test its resistance as a support level, but as long as the decline does not break and close below the level of 105.70, then this decline is only a normal weakening correction and can even potentially make Litecoin find its strengthening momentum again so that this cryptocurrency has the potential to strengthen again where the level of 129.37 will try to be tested to be breaks and close above it, and if it turns out to be successful, Litecoin has the potential to appreciate and strengthen up to the level of 147.98, even if the strengthening momentum and volatility support it, it is not impossible that the level of 159.50 will be the next target to be aimed for.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Polkadot Cryptocurrency, Friday February 28, 2025.

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If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Polkadot cryptocurrency, it appears that its price movement is moving in a channel that has a decreasing slope and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator forms a Divergence with its price movement, so that in the near future it has the potential to make Polkadot correct and weaken down to level 4.4807 but as long as the decline does not break and close below level 4.0260, then this shows that the weakening is only a correction and Polkadot still has the potential to strengthen again where level 5.2152 will be tested to be break and close above it. If successful, then Polkadot will have the potential to strengthen up to level 5.8481 as its main target even if the volatility and momentum of its strengthening are quite significant then 6.3437 is not impossible for the next target to be tested.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on February 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Friday's economic calendar is packed with events, but none are particularly critical. In Germany, reports on unemployment, inflation, and retail sales will be released. While these figures are significant locally, they pertain only to one of the 27 EU countries, suggesting that market reactions may be limited. The inflation report is particularly noteworthy, as it could offer insights regarding the upcoming eurozone inflation data.

In the U.S., data on personal income and spending will be published, alongside the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index. Many analysts view this index as crucial and consider it the "Federal Reserve's favorite," although we do not share that view. It rarely produces impactful numbers, and the market tends to pay more attention to overall and core inflation.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

On Friday, notable events include speeches from Austan Goolsbee, a representative of the Fed, and Dave Ramsden from the Bank of England. However, it's important to emphasize that the market currently does not face significant uncertainties regarding monetary policy in the UK, EU, or the U.S. While there are some concerns about the BoE—particularly in relation to the latest UK inflation report, which could impact its outlook for 2025—representatives from the BoE have not yet commented on the report. Therefore, there is no expectation of a policy shift at this time.

General Conclusions:

On the final trading day of the new week, both currency pairs are likely to trade lower, as many factors indicate this trend. We believe the euro and pound should have begun declining as early as last week. Currently, there are no significant obstacles preventing this downward movement.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.