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Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for December 24-26, 2024: sell below $2,620 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, Gold (XAU/USD) was trading around 2,612, below 3/8 of Murray, and below 200 EMA with very low volatility as markets are closed this week for the holidays.

Gold could continue its fall if it consolidates below 3/8 Murray at 2,617 and could reach 2/8 Murray at 2,570 and even return towards 1/8 Murray at 2,539.

On the H4 chart, we see a bearish trend channel. Therefore, as long as XAU/USD trades within this channel, the outlook could remain negative and the metal could reach the psychological level of 2,500 in the short term.

On the other hand, a break and consolidation above 2,620 in the next few days could push the price up to 2,646 and even towards 4/8 Murray at 2,656.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 24-26, 2024: buy above 1.0400 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, the euro was trading around 1.04, above 1/8 Murray, and above the 21 SMA. The euro is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern. In case of a break above 1.0410, the bullish cycle could resume.

If the euro consolidates above 1.04 in the next few days, we could look for buying opportunities with targets at the top of the downtrend channel around 1.0434.

On the other hand, with a drop below 1.0385, we can expect the euro to lose strength. Hence, EUR/USD could reach 1.0336.

There will be short moves in the euro price because the markets are closed due to the holidays. Although we will also have the same moves next week, the market could resume its course by January.

Due to low liquidity, strong and unexpected movements could occur, so we should avoid trading close to the market closing hours.

The eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so we will look for opportunities to buy while the euro trades above 1.0400.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Court wins and medical breakthroughs: Qualcomm, Lilly set the tone for Wall Street's third positive session

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Tech Boost on Wall Street: Indexes Are Back on Track

The major U.S. stock market indexes continued to rally on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite ended the day with positive results, extending their winning streak to three trading sessions. The key factor pushing the market higher was the strengthening of the leading tech giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven."

Tech Leads the Way

Mega-cap companies had a significant impact on the market, especially in the low investor activity typical of the holidays. Their gains were even more noticeable against the backdrop of a decline in overall trading volume. On Monday, U.S. exchanges recorded a movement of 12.76 billion shares, which is significantly lower than the average of 14.89 billion shares over the past 20 trading days.

Growth Leaders

The companies that contributed to the rise included giants Meta Platforms (banned in Russia), Nvidia and Tesla, whose shares rose by 2.3-3.7%. Other leaders were not far behind: Apple, Amazon.com and Google's parent company Alphabet. Their results also contributed to the positive dynamics.

The winning march of indices

The growth of tech stocks helped the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average to consolidate their winning streak, and the S&P 500 ended the day with an increase for the second time in the last three sessions.

These data highlight the importance of the influence of the largest tech companies on the market, especially during periods when investor activity is declining. Confidence in the future of the tech sector has once again become an important driver for Wall Street.

Financial breakthrough: indices break records again

The main US stock indices ended another session with significant growth. The S&P 500 added 43.22 points (+0.73%) to 5974.07, the Nasdaq Composite increased 192.29 points (+0.98%) to 19764.89, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 66.69 points (+0.16%) to end the day at 42906.95.

The impact of the Fed's decisions

The November rally, triggered by the presidential election results, continued to gain momentum, but December was the month when markets reached their peak. Additional impetus was provided by the Federal Reserve's revised forecasts. Now, instead of four expected rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, the regulator forecasts only two. At the same time, the forecast for annual inflation was raised, which forced investors to revise their expectations.

Market at a crossroads

While there is optimism, there is also caution in the market. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve signaled a slower rate cut, which triggered a wave of sell-offs. However, this short-term cut did not break the general mood: investors continue to focus on the long-term prospects related to economic stability and monetary policy regulation.

Growth prospects

The rise in indices indicates market participants' confidence in the US economy, despite the uncertainty regarding inflation and rates. Both monetary policy and the actions of large companies that form the basis of the stock market remain in the spotlight.

Many analysts are encouraged by the stability with which markets react to external challenges, which gives grounds for confidence in further strengthening of the positions of key indices.

Technology on the rise: the market is on the way to a new rally

The positive dynamics in the stock market continue despite recent adjustments in interest rate expectations. As Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, noted, the rate outlook has changed, but the underlying trends remain unchanged. Tech and innovation stocks continue to find support, underpinning the overall gains.

Gainers and New Opportunities

Monday ended with solid gains for most S&P 500 sectors, with eight out of 11 sectors showing positive dynamics. The day's leader was communications services, which rose 1.4%. This sector is proving its importance, reflecting the continued interest in modern technology and digital services.

Santa Claus Rally in Focus

The market is entering the so-called Santa Claus Rally, a historically strong period for U.S. stocks. Since 1969, the last five days of the outgoing year combined with the first two days of the new year have averaged a 1.3% gain for the S&P 500, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. That's traditionally a good time for investors, and current conditions are setting the stage for a repeat of that success story.

Betting on Holding

Chris Zaccarelli believes the market is now in a good position to hold on to rather than sell for tax breaks. This year's gains in stocks give investors confidence that they can reap more value in the long term.

The stock market is showing resilience and is poised to make gains despite corrections. Technology remains the growth engine, and the upcoming Santa Claus Rally provides additional reasons for optimism.

Market on the Move: Tech and Pharma Stocks Surprise Investors

The stock market was a mixed bag on Monday, with tech giants and pharmaceutical companies taking center stage. Despite the mixed dynamics, the market is showing signs of resilience.

Qualcomm Wins in Court

Qualcomm shares rose 3.5% after a court ruling in the company's favor. A jury ruled that Qualcomm's processors were properly licensed under an agreement with U.K.-based Arm Holdings. But the story is far from over: Arm intends to seek a review of the case. Its shares fell by 4% on the news.

Walmart under fire

The world's largest retailer Walmart came under pressure. Its shares fell by 2% after the US consumer finance regulator accused the company, along with Branch Messenger, of forcing more than a million couriers to use accounts that resulted in unwanted fees of more than $10 million. The scandal was a serious blow to the retailer's reputation and stock.

Eli Lilly's breakthrough and its consequences

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly showed a rise of 3.7% after the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved a new drug for obstructive sleep apnea - Zepbound. This event pleased the company's investors, but hit the makers of medical devices for the treatment of apnea. ResMed and Inspire Medical shares fell 2.6% and 0.1%, respectively.

Nordstrom to go public

Department store chain Nordstrom also found itself in the spotlight, with shares down 1.5% on news that the company's founding family and Mexican retailer El Puerto de Liverpool had agreed to buy the company out and take it private.

Macroeconomic context

Globally, stocks rose, helped by support from Wall Street. However, the bond market was a different story, with U.S. Treasury yields hitting a nearly seven-month high. Meanwhile, data showing deteriorating U.S. consumer confidence is causing investors to reassess expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2025.

The stock market continues to react to a mix of corporate news and macroeconomic cues, highlighting the complexity of the current investment environment.

Tech Sector Leads Market to New Highs

The US Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices ended the day higher, largely driven by gains in tech stocks. In particular, Nvidia and Broadcom were the main drivers of the rally, once again confirming their status as industry leaders.

Consumer Confidence Under Pressure

However, the overall picture on the market was overshadowed by the Conference Board report. The consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 104.7 in December, which was significantly lower than economists' expectations (113.3) and the revised 112.8 in November. The main reason for the decline was concerns about the future business outlook.

Mixed Order Dynamics

In the US manufacturing sector, the data also showed a mixed picture. The volume of orders for key capital goods, including machinery, continued to rise in November, indicating that demand in this area remains strong. However, orders for durable goods fell by 1.1% after rising by 0.8% in October. Weakness in commercial aircraft orders played a key role in the decline, reflecting changes in the aviation industry.

Optimism amid challenges

Despite bearish signals in consumer sentiment and weakness in some manufacturing sectors, a rally in tech stocks helped support market confidence. Mega-cap stocks continue to play a key role in offsetting the negative impact of macroeconomic factors.

Investors are closely monitoring sentiment and economic data, but the overall direction of the market points to further gains, supported by support from the tech sector.

Market under pressure: Bond yields and investor fears hinder optimism

Monday brought mixed signals for investors, as large-cap stocks continued to rise, but weak consumer confidence and rising bond yields pose additional challenges for the stock market.

Bond yields hit record highs

Robert Phipps, director of Per Stirling Capital Management, drew attention to the sharp rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which reached the highest level since the end of May. In his opinion, the key mark for investors is the 4.6% level. "If yields exceed this threshold, we could see further growth to 5%, which would be a serious test for the market," the expert said, noting that the reason for the growth was the policy of the Federal Reserve System (Fed), which is slowing down the reduction of rates.

Difficulties in adjusting to a new reality

Phipps emphasized that markets continue to adjust to a less accommodative monetary policy. Despite the successes in shares of large technology companies, the overall picture of US indices remains weak. Investors are assessing the possible consequences of the slowdown in the reduction of rates of the Fed, which is causing an increase in caution.

European Markets Show Resilience

At a global level, the MSCI index, which tracks stocks around the world, rose 0.65% to 849.74. Europe's STOXX 600 also showed a small gain of 0.14%, highlighting the relative stability of European markets amid volatility in the US.

Expectations before Christmas

Ahead of a short trading week, investors continue to analyze the impact of last week's sharp sell-off in stocks. Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder, noted that uncertainty remains a high risk. "Investors are concerned about the economic situation, the possibility of missteps by the Fed and questions about what steps Donald Trump will take after his inauguration," he said.

Balancing risks and opportunities

The market is in a difficult phase, with positive moves in individual sectors clashing with broader concerns about economic stability and future policy actions. Macroeconomic factors continue to shape investor sentiment, setting the stage for cautious trading in the coming days.

Bond Markets on the Rise: Yields Continue to Rise

The U.S. Treasury bond market is showing a rise in yields, reaching record levels since late May. These changes are accompanied by active selling of short- and medium-term debt obligations by the U.S. Treasury Department, which is setting the tone for the market this week.

Yield Records

The yield on the U.S. 10-year bond rose by 6.7 basis points to 4.591%, up from 4.524% on Friday. Similar dynamics were shown by the 30-year bond, whose yield increased by 6.3 basis points to 4.779%. This growth underscores the tension in the debt market caused by active issuance of Treasury bonds.

Auctions in Demand

A successful sale of $69 billion in two-year notes took place on Monday, part of a larger plan to issue $183 billion in coupons during the week. Strong demand for these bonds shows that investors are still hungry for short maturities.

Year yields on two-year notes, which typically respond to expectations about Federal Reserve policy, rose 3 basis points to 4.342%, up from 4.312% on Friday.

Dollar Strengthens

As bond yields rose, the dollar also strengthened. The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.27% to 108.08.

The euro weakened 0.22% to $1.0406, while the Japanese yen also lost ground, with the dollar gaining 0.45% to 157.12.

Market Outlook

Rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar underscore the tension in financial markets. Investors are closely monitoring the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve for signals on the long-term outlook for the economy. With bond markets in high gear, the dollar remains a safe haven for investors.

Commodity Markets on Hold: Oil and Gold Slip

Commodity trading activity has slowed ahead of the holidays. Concerns about an oil supply glut next year and a stronger dollar have weighed on prices.

Oil Under Pressure

Oil prices ended the day slightly lower. U.S. crude (WTI) fell 22 cents (-0.32%) to $69.24 a barrel. Brent, the global benchmark, lost 31 cents (-0.43%) to $72.63 a barrel. The stronger dollar makes oil less attractive to foreign buyers, adding to pressure on prices, and worries about oversupply are growing amid signs of a slowing global economy.

Gold retreats

The precious metals market also felt the impact of a strong dollar and rising US Treasury yields. Spot gold fell 0.39% to $2,610.66 per ounce, while US gold futures fell 0.67% to $2,611.10 per ounce.

High bond yields make gold investments less attractive, especially in the context of the holiday lull in the markets.

The decline in oil and gold prices highlights the general uncertainty in the commodity markets. Investors are waiting for news about possible changes in oil production policy from OPEC+ countries and the market reaction to macroeconomic factors.

For gold, further dynamics will depend on the dollar exchange rate and bond yields, as well as the general mood in the financial markets at the beginning of the new year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Video analysis for December 24, 2024

.Potential for the rally in WTIThe material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Oil Compresses the Spring: Awaiting an Explosion!

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The upper levels can't, and the lower levels won't? Speculators have increased their oil purchases at the fastest pace since September 2023, driven by expectations that new sanctions against Russia and Iran will tighten supply, while China's stimulus measures will boost demand. However, Brent crude oil prices remain stubbornly stagnant, neither rising nor dropping significantly. Is a revolutionary situation brewing in the oil market? If so, any breakout from the current medium-term range may have to wait until 2025. After all, Christmas is typically a time to pause business activities.

Dynamics of Speculative Positions in Oil

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a government funding bill that extends through March 2025, which has brought joy to financial markets. A slowdown in the U.S. economy caused by a government shutdown would have been detrimental to investors. Currently, the U.S. is a key driver of global GDP growth and oil demand. Bloomberg experts project a decrease of 2 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending December 20, which is likely to support Brent and WTI oil prices.

However, China, India, and other Asian countries are expected to be the primary contributors to global oil demand growth in 2025, accounting for approximately 60% of the increase. OPEC forecasts an increase of 1.45 million barrels per day (b/d), while the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates it at 1.08 million b/d.

Global Oil Demand Structure

However, the reality may not be as optimistic. The U.S.-China trade war is likely to slow down the Chinese economy. In 2023, China accounted for 16% of global oil demand, equivalent to 16.4 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase from just 9% in 2008. However, the country's strong demand for electric vehicles and its ongoing real estate crisis are reducing its appetite for oil. Gasoline and diesel fuel demand is believed to have peaked and is projected to be 3.6% lower in 2024 than it was in 2021.

U.S. tariffs on imports from China are causing concern in the oil market. For example, Donald Trump's statement that the European Union could face tariffs if it doesn't increase purchases of U.S. oil and gas diminished bullish momentum for Brent crude. Consequently, the price of this North Sea grade quickly returned to consolidation, and its price movement now resembles a spring that is being compressed. The question remains: when will it explode?

Oil concludes 2024 with mixed sentiments. Optimists expect to see growth in global demand, particularly from Asia and the U.S. In contrast, pessimists warn that non-OPEC+ countries may inundate the market with new supplies, potentially leading to a decrease in prices.

From a technical perspective, a triangle pattern continues to form on the daily Brent chart. A breakout above the upper boundary near $74 per barrel could create opportunities for long positions. On the other hand, a decisive breach of the $72 support level would suggest the potential for selling. An aggressive short entry might be considered if the price successfully tests the fair value at $72.45.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 157.01 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero line, which, in my opinion, limited the upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I decided not to buy the dollar.

Despite relatively weak U.S. economic data, the USD/JPY pair continued to rise on Monday during the latter half of the day. I have consistently pointed out that this trading instrument often operates independently and reacts unpredictably to major U.S. economic indicators.

Today's data on the growth of the Bank of Japan's Core Consumer Price Index has significantly impacted financial markets and strengthened the yen. According to the latest reports, the CPI surpassed economists' expectations. These results indicate positive changes in the country's economic situation. This serves as an important signal for investors, suggesting that the fight against inflation is progressing more successfully than previously anticipated.

The recent strengthening of the yen following the data release indicates growing confidence in the Japanese economy. Investors are increasingly viewing the yen as a safe haven, especially amid economic uncertainties in other regions. This trend could enhance the purchasing power of Japanese companies operating internationally, benefiting their trade activities. However, it is important to note that a stronger yen may present challenges for Japanese exporters. A more expensive yen reduces the competitiveness of Japanese goods in international markets, which could negatively impact company profits in the long run.

The minutes from today's BOJ monetary policy meeting did not clarify the central bank's strategy for additional interest rate hikes, resulting in reduced demand for the yen.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 157.15 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 157.60 (thicker green line). Around 157.60, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to focus on further growth of the pair and buy on pullbacks. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 156.89 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposite levels of 157.15 and 157.60 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level of 156.89 (red line on the chart) is updated, leading to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.57, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 157.15 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Declines to the opposite levels of 156.89 and 156.57 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price tested the 1.2513 level while the MACD indicator was in the oversold zone, which limited the pair's potential for further decline. For this reason, I chose not to sell the pound. Additionally, I didn't observe a second test of this level to consider making a purchase.

The British pound is currently under pressure as traders focus on negative economic indicators. Declining levels of production and consumption raise concerns about GDP growth, which showed no momentum in the third quarter of this year. Despite these challenges, the Bank of England is maintaining its stance on interest rates and is not rushing into making cuts. High inflation, which remains above target levels, compels central banks to proceed with caution.

Given these factors, traders should be prepared for volatility, especially during the holiday period when market activity and the presence of major players tend to diminish. Nevertheless, even in uncertain times, there are opportunities for those who can adapt and respond effectively to changing economic conditions.

There are no scheduled reports from the UK today, so I expect the pair to remain within the current trading range. For the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2544 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.2569 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2569, I plan to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from this level). A rise in the pound can only be expected as part of a correction. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2523 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth to the opposing levels of 1.2544 and 1.2569 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2523 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2498, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Selling the pound can continue in line with the downward trend. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2544 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.2523 and 1.2498 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 24. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price level of 1.0387 was tested when the MACD indicator had been in the oversold zone for a considerable period and was starting to recover. This situation presented a suitable entry point for buying the euro. Consequently, the correction resulted in an increase of about 20 pips. I decided against buying at 1.0405, as the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line by the time the level was reached, which I believed limited the pair's upward potential.

Recent weak data from the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index led to significant fluctuations in the euro-dollar currency pair. Traders, uncertain about the sustainability of the U.S. economic recovery, began adjusting their positions as the holiday season approached. This created a horizontal channel in the market, making trading patterns more predictable but also limiting profit opportunities. The situation is further complicated by the fact that changes in consumer confidence can indicate potential issues in the U.S. labor market and consumer spending; however, this indicator should be analyzed alongside other relevant data.

Technical analysis emphasizes the importance of exercising caution while trading in the current environment, characterized by instability and thin market conditions, which are common during the pre-holiday period. With no significant fundamental data being released from the eurozone today, it is crucial to be careful when deciding on market entries.

For my intraday strategy, I intend to focus primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro upon reaching the 1.0405 level (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.0440. At the 1.0440 level, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro on a reversal, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A strong upward move in the euro during the first half of the day is unlikely. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0389 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.0405 and 1.0440 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0389 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0361 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy on a reversal (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0405 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0389 and 1.0361 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 24

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Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to struggle with upward momentum. Each significant upward movement faces selling pressure as some market participants offload their cryptocurrency assets, creating notable downward pressure on prices.

The crypto community, particularly speculative traders, is feeling puzzled and frustrated. Meanwhile, Donald Trump is solidifying his position with new policies designed to promote the growth of the cryptocurrency industry. Let's take a closer look at some key appointments.

Stephen Miran has been appointed as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. He is a supporter of cryptocurrencies and aims to integrate blockchain technology and decentralized finance into the U.S. economy. Another significant appointment is Bo Hines, a former professional football player, who will lead the newly established Cryptocurrency Council. Hines has been tasked with finding a balance between encouraging innovation and ensuring consumer protection by creating a regulatory framework for digital assets. Additionally, David Sacks, a veteran of Silicon Valley and an ardent supporter of blockchain technology, has been named the "AI and Crypto Czar." Sacks intends to combine blockchain with artificial intelligence while enhancing U.S. leadership in both fields.

These appointments represent a significant shift from Trump's previous skepticism regarding digital assets. The key question now is how these actions will translate into meaningful policies, especially amidst regulatory gridlock and political friction. These changes also demonstrate the administration's new approach to cryptocurrency and blockchain regulation, indicating an effort to create a more innovation-friendly environment. This shift could attract investments and position the U.S. at the forefront of the global digital economy. However, overcoming legislative hurdles will require compromises among various interest groups, including investors and law enforcement agencies. Nevertheless, with Trump maintaining control over Congress, overcoming these challenges seems to be only a matter of time.

In my intraday strategy for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to focus on significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating that the bullish trend will continue in the medium term, which remains intact.

Below, I have outlined the trading strategy and conditions for short-term trading.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Today, I plan to buy Bitcoin upon reaching the entry point near $94,755, aiming for a rise to the level of $96,100. At $96,100, I will exit purchases and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Sell Scenario

Today, I plan to sell Bitcoin at the entry point near $93,970, aiming for a drop to $92,600. At $92,600, I will exit sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the zone below zero.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Today, I plan to buy Ethereum upon reaching the entry point near $3,429, aiming for a rise to $3,539. At $3,539, I will exit purchases and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the zone above zero.

Sell Scenario

Today, I plan to sell Ethereum upon reaching the entry point near $3,378, aiming for a drop to $3,283. At $3,283, I will exit sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the zone below zero.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Novice Traders on December 24 Intraday Strategies for Novice Traders on December 24

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Buyers of the euro and the pound have stepped back. While the pound has encountered significant issues following the GDP data, the euro has only experienced a normal correction.

It is evident that as we approach the holiday season, market direction is being influenced more by psychological factors than by economic indicators. Traders are increasingly focused on news, rumors, and overall sentiment, contributing to less volatility in the markets. However, this psychological dynamic can lead to sharp price fluctuations, even when the underlying economic conditions remain stable.

Due to the lack of significant data from the UK and the eurozone during the first half of the day, traders are expected to act cautiously, which may lead to reduced market volatility. This anticipated sideways trading in the euro, pound, and other risk assets will give market participants an opportunity to adapt to current conditions. However, there may be activity from major players looking to take advantage of the uncertainty to adjust their positions. This could lead to temporary sharp movements at certain points during the trading session, but overall, the market is likely to remain within a horizontal channel.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it's advisable to use the Mean Reversion Strategy. However, if the data significantly exceeds or falls short of expectations, the Momentum Strategy is recommended.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout)

For EUR/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.0413, targeting 1.0446 and 1.0476.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.0380, targeting 1.0347 and 1.0308.

For GBP/USD:

• Buy on a breakout above 1.2550, targeting 1.2580 and 1.2611.
• Sell on a breakout below 1.2510, targeting 1.2478 and 1.2432.

For USD/JPY:

• Buy on a breakout above 157.28, targeting 157.70 and 158.12.
• Sell on a breakout below 156.94, targeting 156.60 and 156.19.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal):

For EUR/USD

• Look for sales after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0410 and a return below this level.
• Look for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0386 and a return above this level.

For GBP/USD

• Look for sales after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.2543 and a return below this level.
• Look for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.2520 and a return above this level.

For AUD/USD

• Look for sales after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6249 and a return below this level.
• Look for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6228 and a return above this level.

For USD/CAD

• Look for sales after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4392 and a return below this level.
• Look for buys after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4372 and a return above this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on December 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Monday, the GBP/USD pair traded lower, approaching the lows seen last week. The UK released one report on Monday that, unsurprisingly, did not support the British currency. The UK economy exhibited weaker-than-expected growth in the third quarter, and the second-quarter figures were also revised downward. This situation naturally justified the pound's decline. However, it appears that the British pound may continue its downward trend even without local macroeconomic factors, as it remains overbought and unjustifiably expensive. While we are not likely to see significant movements this week, there is nothing to stop remaining traders from continuing to push the pair down in alignment with the overall trend.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were generated on Monday. However, the key signal occurred on Friday. On that day, the price rebounded from the 1.2613 level, which triggered a significant decline. Opening trades just before the market closed on Friday involved considerable risk, but the signal was clear and played out as expected. On Monday, the price broke below the 1.2547 level and only paused near the 1.2502–1.2508 range. The bounce from this area acted as a buy signal.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed its upward correction. In the medium term, we fully anticipate a decline in the pound, as this seems to be the most logical direction. However, it is important to note that the pound sterling faces strong resistance against the U.S. dollar. Therefore, while a decline is expected, traders should rely on technical signals. The outcomes of the Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings strongly support the continuation of a bearish trend.

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair may experience a slight increase, as it was unable to break through the resistance zone of 1.2502–1.2508. However, a further decline still appears to be the more likely outcome.

For trading on the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following key levels: 1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2633, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, and 1.2980–1.2993. On Tuesday, there will be only one significant macroeconomic report released—the U.S. durable goods orders. Additionally, please note that Wednesday is a holiday.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on December 24? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair performed exactly as we expected. In our previous articles, we pointed out that Friday's rally in the euro was illogical, making a return to earlier levels likely. This proved to be the case. Although the euro did not reach the 1.0359 level, it has a strong chance of doing so today. This level now acts like a magnet for the price. The downward trend remains intact across all timeframes, indicating that this level will likely be breached, aligning with our expectations. We continue to foresee the euro declining into the 1.00–1.02 range. On Monday, there were no significant events in either the U.S. or the Eurozone, which left us with little to react to or analyze. The fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for this week is expected to remain weak.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Monday, one sell signal was generated. During the European trading session, the price rebounded for the second consecutive time from the 1.0433–1.0451 range, resulting in a 30-pip decline. Although volatility was moderate and the nearest target area was not reached, the signal remains valid, indicating that short positions can still be maintained.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD has been trading sideways for nearly three weeks. However, the results from the Federal Reserve meeting triggered a strong market reaction, breaking this period of stagnation. We believe that the euro's downtrend has resumed. During the upcoming holiday weeks, the market may enter another flat phase or undergo a correction. Nonetheless, we expect the price to revisit the key level of 1.0334–1.0359.

On Tuesday, the pair may continue its decline towards the 1.0334–1.0359 zone, which is currently our target.

On the 5-minute timeframe, consider the following levels: 1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851, and 1.0888–1.0896. No significant events or reports are scheduled in the Eurozone on Tuesday. However, in the U.S., a report on durable goods orders will be released, which is an important report that could provoke a market reaction.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Tuesday December 24, 2024.

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With the appearance of deviations between the Nasdaq 100 index price movement and the RSI(5) indicator plus the current confirmation that the #NDX price is already and has closed above the WMA (30 Shift 2) on the 4-hour chart, it provides an indication that in the near future #NDX has the potential to appreciate and strengthen upwards where as long as there is no weakening correction that breaks through and closes below the 20932.3 level, this index will strengthen up to the 21513.4 level and if the momentum and volatility support it, #NDX will try to go to the 22105.2 level.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Bitcoin Cryptocurrency, Tuesday December 24, 2024.

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There are some interesting things that we can find on the 4-hour chart of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency where even though the current price movement of #BTC is below the WMA (30 Shift 2) that has a decreasing slope which means that Sellers are quite dominant, but with the appearance of the Megaphone pattern and followed by the appearance of deviations between the Bitcoin price movement and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator (5,3,3) gives an indication that in the near future Bitcoin has the potential to strengthen upwards where the level of 99486.00 will be tested to be broken upwards, which is important as long as there is no further weakening that falls to close below the level of 90873.44, Bitcoin has the potential to strengthen to the level of 102757.51 and if the momentum and volatility support it, Bitcoin still has the potential to continue its strengthening to the level of 106394.85.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast for December 24, 2024

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The euro declined yesterday, retreating from the resistance level of 1.0461 and ending the day with a 24-pip drop. The Marlin oscillator also moved lower, indicating bearish momentum. We now expect the price to test the nearest support level at 1.0350.

Once the price consolidates below 1.0350, we anticipate it will move toward the target level of 1.0250. On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator has firmly entered bearish territory.

The price is currently declining below both indicator lines. If there are no unexpected developments today, we expect the price to reach 1.0350.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast for December 24, 2024

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On Monday, the pound sterling fell by 33 pips, testing the support level at 1.2510. The Marlin oscillator continues to develop within two patterns: a descending red channel and a convergence with the price.

A break below the 1.2510 level will enhance the influence of the descending channel and open the way to targets at 1.2447 and then 1.2367.

On the four-hour chart, the price appears to be briefly consolidating above the previously reached 1.2510 level. Calm market conditions yesterday prevented any decisive movements.

The Marlin oscillator has shown a slight increase, yet it remains in bearish territory. A confirmed break below the 1.2510 support level would lead toward 1.2447.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD Forecast for December 24, 2024

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The Australian dollar was unable to break above the resistance level of 0.6273 after bouncing back from the lower boundary of the descending price channel. Currently, the price seems to be heading toward the critical point where the target level of 0.6171 meets the lower boundary of the price channel.

Breaking below this level will enable the pair to continue its movement toward 0.6077. In the four-hour timeframe, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator has reversed from the neutral zero line twice.

After reversing from the 0.6273 level, the price has not made any further attempts to return to that point. Indicator lines are steadily declining, and we anticipate the price will reach its first target at 0.6171.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the GBP/USD Pair: December 24. When Holidays Are Not an Obstacle

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The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a decline on Monday, which we had anticipated. Over the weekend and on Monday, we pointed out that there was no solid fundamental reason for the 100-pip increase of the British pound on Friday. We expected the price to continue its downward trend on Monday, especially as new fundamental factors emerged last week that would likely put pressure on the pound sterling. It has become evident that the Federal Reserve may only reduce interest rates two times in 2025. Furthermore, some experts and members of the Fed's monetary committee believe that even a single rate cut might be sufficient. It's worth noting that the market had previously priced in 6 or 7 rate cuts of 0.25% each for 2024. We should remind readers that the market had anticipated a complete cycle of monetary easing in the U.S. However, it now appears that the Fed will proceed with easing at a much slower pace.

Throughout 2024, we consistently highlighted the strength of the U.S. economy. While everyone is entitled to their opinion, it is essential for us to accurately evaluate the fundamental and macroeconomic landscape in order to make reliable forecasts. The U.S. economy is significantly stronger than those of the Eurozone and Britain. This strength allows the Fed the flexibility to wait indefinitely for inflation to return to its target level, a luxury that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank do not have. Moreover, the inherent strength of the U.S. economy makes the dollar a more attractive currency for purchases. However, the dollar experienced a decline for two years during a persistent bearish trend. Now, as global bearish trends begin to reverse, nearly all indicators suggest a strong and prolonged rise for the dollar, which has been evident throughout 2024.

The BoE warrants attention for two main reasons. First, the stance of its monetary committee turned out to be more dovish than anticipated at its most recent meeting. Second, the Bank's current sluggish pace indicates that it may eventually need to act rapidly. Sooner or later, whether gradually or swiftly, the Bank is likely to lower its key interest rate. Given the state of the economy, it seems unlikely that the Bank can maintain a "neutral rate" of around 4%, as the Fed does. As a result, we continue to forecast the pound sterling to hover near the 1.1800 level, a target we've mentioned since the beginning of the year. If the global bearish trend continues, the pound could potentially drop to parity with the dollar in the next few years. Although this scenario seems difficult to envision, past events, such as the oil price shock and negative crude valuations from a few years ago, have demonstrated that anything is possible. This week alone, the pound could decline to the 1.2300 level.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days is 121 pips, which is considered "high" for this pair. On Tuesday, December 24, we expect the price to move within a range defined by the levels of 1.2394 and 1.2636. The higher linear regression channel is trending downward, indicating a bearish trend. Although the CCI has recently entered the oversold zone again, the pound still appears poised to continue its downward trend, as we have previously indicated. Any oversold condition in a bearish trend is typically just a signal for a correction. Additionally, the bullish divergence noted in this indicator suggests a potential for correction.

Key Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.2451

Key Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.2573
• R2 – 1.2695
• R3 – 1.2817

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is currently in a bearish trend, although it is experiencing some corrections. We advise against taking long positions at this time, as we believe that the market has already fully accounted for all potential growth factors affecting the British currency. However, if you are trading based on technical analysis, long positions could be considered with a target of 1.2817, provided the price is above the moving average line. At present, short positions are more relevant, with targets set at 1.2451 and 1.2394.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the EUR/USD Pair: December 24. A New Attempt by the Euro Toward Parity

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The EUR/USD currency pair continued to decline on Monday. In previous analyses, we pointed out that the euro's rise on Friday was entirely illogical and contrary to the ongoing trend. Therefore, we anticipated that Monday would see the pair "restoring fairness" once again. Over the past few months, the market has consistently adjusted the euro's exchange rate toward what is considered a fair value. Given the recent developments regarding the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, it is likely that this trend of adjusting to a fair value will continue for some time.

Since the beginning of the year, we have maintained that the euro is overbought and unreasonably expensive. Although we anticipated that the decline would start a bit earlier, it's important to emphasize that forecasting future exchange rates is a highly complex task. Predicting the timing of a specific movement is even more difficult. Many traders aim not only to predict the overall direction of future price movements but also to identify the exact moment they should enter the market at the start of a trend. In practice, this is rarely achieved and often resembles guesswork. However, it is possible to determine the general direction of price movement by conducting a thorough analysis of the factors influencing it.

Currently, the euro has declined by nearly 800 pips, and we continue to believe that this downtrend will persist. This trend remains intact across all timeframes, particularly the higher ones. If the long-term trend, which has been in place for 16 years, is not broken (and there are no fundamental reasons for it to be), the euro could drop below 0.95 next year. However, it's important to note that fundamentals could change, especially with Donald Trump taking office. But for now, there are no indications to suggest a shift in this trend.

On Friday, the euro corrected once again after failing to break below the 1.0355 level. Notably, this marked the third attempt to surpass this level. However, when a price repeatedly tests a level, it often indicates that a breakthrough may eventually occur. By Wednesday, both the EU and U.S. markets will observe Christmas, with Tuesday being a shortened trading day. Therefore, significant market movements are not expected today, and the market will be closed tomorrow.

Monday demonstrated that, despite it being the holiday season, the market does not remain idle. We had previously warned that the holiday week does not guarantee stagnant markets. On the contrary, movements are possible due to the "thin" market conditions. Furthermore, a downtrend persists across nearly all timeframes, and on Monday, the price rebounded from the moving average on the 4-hour chart. While Monday's movement was not particularly strong, it was entirely predictable.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days is 93 pips, which is classified as "medium." On Tuesday, we expect the pair to fluctuate between the levels of 1.0305 and 1.0491. The upper linear regression channel remains downward, indicating that the overall bearish trend continues. Additionally, the CCI indicator has entered the oversold area again amid a significant decline, serving as another warning of a potential correction.

Key Support Levels:

• S1: 1.0376
• S2: 1.0254
• S3: 1.0132

Key Resistance Levels:

• R1: 1.0498
• R2: 1.0620
• R3: 1.0742

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its downward trend. In recent months, we have consistently highlighted our expectation of a decline in the euro over the medium term, and we fully support this bearish outlook. There is a strong possibility that the market has already factored in all future Fed rate cuts, which reduces the chances of medium-term dollar depreciation, a situation that was already limited.

Short positions remain relevant, with targets set at 1.0305 and 1.0254, as long as the price stays below the moving average. For those who trade using "pure" technical analysis, long positions may only be considered if the price rises above the moving average, with a target of 1.0620. However, at this time, we do not recommend entering long positions.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Review of GBP/USD on December 24: The Pound Sterling Returns to Initial Levels

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a decline on Monday, and unlike the euro, it did not even attempt to make gains during the day. In previous articles, we noted that there was no justification for the British pound to rise on Friday; in fact, it should have been declining. Therefore, we expected a "restoration of fair value" on Monday, which is precisely what occurred. The price returned to the 1.2516 level, influenced by the only significant report of the day—the UK GDP for Q3. This report indicated weaker growth in the British economy compared to the first and second estimates, as well as experts' forecasts. Additionally, the Q2 figure was revised downward in quarterly terms. Consequently, Monday's decline in the British pound was not only anticipated but also entirely logical.

In the medium term, we anticipate further declines. This week, there will be very few news reports, and Wednesday is a holiday. However, the British currency might continue its downward trend, as holidays do not necessarily result in a flat market.

On Monday, the first trading signal was formed only in the evening when the price worked through the 1.2516 level. However, on Friday evening, a sell signal had formed in the 1.2605–1.2620 area, which allowed traders to capture the entire downward move on Monday. Of course, opening trades right before the weekend is not the best practice, but each trader must decide whether they are ready to take such a risk. Those who opened positions based on this signal earned profits.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound reveal that the sentiment among commercial traders has been consistently shifting over recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently intersect and mostly hover near the zero mark. Currently, the price first broke through the 1.3154 level and then fell back to the trendline. A price consolidation below the trendline is likely. The first rebound from it (technically, the fourth attempt) was very weak. The chart suggests that the next attempt could be successful, potentially leading to a sharp drop.

According to the latest COT report on the British pound, the Non-commercial group closed 14,500 BUY contracts and 9,000 SELL contracts, reducing the net position by another 5,500 contracts over the week.

The fundamental backdrop still does not justify long-term purchases of the pound sterling. On the contrary, the currency has a real chance of resuming its downward trend globally. For now, the trendline is preventing the pound from further declines. However, if the trendline doesn't allow the price to break lower, another upward move above 1.3500 could occur. But what fundamental reasons currently support such a scenario? After all, the pound cannot continue rising indefinitely without solid grounds.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to show a bearish sentiment overall, indicating that the three-week correction has come to an end. Currently, there is no fundamental reason for the pound to rise, apart from the technical necessity to correct occasionally. Although the meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve could have had a negative impact on the dollar, they ultimately had a detrimental effect on the pound. In the medium term, we anticipate that the British currency will decline further.

On December 24, we would like to highlight the following important levels: 1.2349, 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2691-1.2701, 1.2796-1.2816, 1.2863, and 1.2981-1.2987. Additionally, the Senkou Span B at 1.2708 and the Kijun-sen at 1.2600 can also provide valuable signals. Keep in mind that the Ichimoku indicator lines may change throughout the day, so traders should take this into account when identifying trading signals. It is advisable to set a stop loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction to minimize losses from false signals.

On Tuesday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the UK. In the U.S., the Durable Goods Orders report will be released, which is important and is essentially the only report of the day. As a result, both currency pairs may still experience active trading today.

Illustration Explanations:

Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Key areas where price movement might stall. Not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the hourly chart, serving as strong levels.

Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Points where the price has previously rebounded. They can serve as trading signal sources.

Yellow Lines: Trendlines, channels, or other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Reflects the net position size of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Review of EUR/USD on December 24: Euro Starts with a Decline

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair experienced renewed declines on Monday, which aligns with our previous forecasts. In earlier articles, we highlighted that Friday's increase seemed illogical, as the macroeconomic conditions for that day did not support buying the euro. Furthermore, the outcomes of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve meetings clearly indicated a downward trend. Therefore, Monday's decline was anticipated. Additionally, the price tested the Kijun-sen line and then rebounded, providing another signal for a downward reversal and selling opportunity. As a result, we expect the pair to approach the 1.0340-1.0366 range for the fourth time soon, a level that has thus far prevented the euro from declining further.

This week marks the start of the New Year holidays. Today is a shortened trading day, and tomorrow is a holiday. However, this does not mean the trading pairs will be inactive. In fact, we believe that in a thin market, bears might find it easier to break through the 1.0340-1.0366 range "under the radar." Overall, we continue to anticipate further declines in the EUR/USD pair.

From a trading signal perspective, the rebound from the Kijun-sen critical line, which triggered another wave of euro declines, stands out. This signal was quite precise, and given the bearish trend, it presented a clear trading opportunity. By the end of the day, the price nearly reached the 1.0340-1.0366 range. There is an 80% likelihood that this level will be tested soon.

COT Report

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, dated December 17, shows a clear trend. The net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time, but bears have gained the upper hand. Two months ago, the number of open short positions by professional traders surged, causing the net position to turn negative for the first time. This indicates that the euro is now sold more often than bought.

We continue to see no fundamental factors supporting the euro's growth, and technical analysis points to price consolidation — essentially, a flat market. On the weekly timeframe, it is evident that since December 2022, the pair has been trading within the 1.0448–1.1274 range. Therefore, further declines remain more likely. A break below 1.0448 would open new opportunities for a deeper fall.

The red and blue lines on the COT chart have crossed and changed their relative positions, signaling a bearish market trend. During the latest reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-commercial group decreased by 4,700, while shorts decreased by 14,400. As a result, the net position increased by almost 10,000, but this does not alter the overall bearish trend.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the currency pair has completed a three-week correction and has resumed its downward movement. We believe this decline may continue even during the holiday period due to the Fed's highly hawkish stance. The Fed is expected to lower rates only 1-2 times in 2025, which is a much more hawkish scenario than what the market has already priced in. We maintain that there are no solid grounds for significant growth of the euro. Additionally, the euro is approaching the 1.0340-1.0366 range for the fourth time.

For December 24, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.0195, 1.0269, 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0585, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, and 1.0889. Additionally, keep an eye on the Senkou Span B at 1.0541 and the Kijun-sen at 1.0430. Please note that Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so traders should consider this when identifying trading signals. As always, set your Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction to protect against potential losses from false signals.

On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Durable Goods Orders report, which is the most significant—and essentially the only—key data release this week. The market is likely to react to this report depending on how much the actual figures deviate from forecasts.

Illustration Explanations:

Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Key areas where price movement might stall. Not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the H4 timeframe to the hourly chart, serving as strong levels.

Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Points where the price has previously rebounded. They can serve as trading signal sources.

Yellow Lines: Trendlines, channels, or other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Reflects the net position size of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Trump's Bold Statements

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The euro-dollar pair has once again returned to the 1.03 range. Buyers of EUR/USD attempted to break through the intermediate resistance level at 1.0450, which corresponds to the Tenkan-sen line on the D1 timeframe, but they were unsuccessful. Sellers have taken the lead; however, they have yet to achieve significant success. In order to resume the downward trend, sellers need to consolidate below the support level at 1.0360, which represents the lower Bollinger Bands line on the same timeframe. So far, their attempts to do this have also ended in failure.

In summary, the saying "the upper classes can't, the lower classes won't" effectively captures the current dynamics of EUR/USD.

On Friday, the U.S. Dollar Index experienced a significant drop from 108.28 to 107.30. This bearish reversal was triggered by the release of the core PCE index, which recorded a value of 2.8% in November, slightly below the forecast of 2.9%. Although this result does not indicate a slowdown in U.S. inflation, dollar bulls reacted negatively to the data. This reaction appears to be more emotional than rational, as the key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve has remained steady at 2.8% after two months of being at 2.7%. By Monday, the Dollar Index had bounced back into the 108 range, nearly regaining all of its previous losses.

The greenback regained momentum, partly due to controversial statements made by Donald Trump. Although he won't be inaugurated as the 47th U.S. president for another 28 days, his comments are already impacting the financial markets.

China, the European Union, Canada, Mexico, Panama, and Denmark (specifically Greenland) have all faced scrutiny from Trump regarding economic and territorial disputes. Recently, Trump stated that the U.S. must establish control over Greenland, a territory owned by Denmark. This announcement coincided with his nomination for an ambassador to Denmark. In the past, he has also threatened to "reclaim" the Panama Canal from Panama, accusing the country of excessive collaboration with China and imposing high tolls on American ships.

Some analysts dismiss Trump's comments as mere political rhetoric, reminiscent of his campaign speeches. However, since the elections are long over and Trump has already secured his position, his statements should be taken seriously, as they reflect the primary directions of U.S. foreign policy under his administration.

Monday's decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate signals that the market is taking Trump's threats seriously. Despite a weak report on durable goods orders, the safe-haven dollar gained strength. Total orders dropped by 1.1%, marking the lowest level since June, while analysts had anticipated a smaller decline of 0.3%. When excluding transportation, orders fell by 0.1%, the lowest since July, contradicting expectations of a 0.3% increase.

Traders largely overlooked this report, as well as another important macroeconomic indicator: the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. After steadily increasing over the past two months—from 99.2 in September to 109.6 in October and then 111.7 in November—it was expected to rise to 112.9 in December. However, the index fell to 104.7, although the November figure was revised upward to 112.8.

Despite the mixed economic results, the demand for the dollar remains strong. This situation underscores the prevailing risk-off sentiment in the market, which has pushed macroeconomic reports to a secondary importance.

Part of this shift is due to the fact that the outcome of the Fed's January meeting is already expected. According to CME FedWatch data, there is a 95% probability that the Fed will keep its current policy unchanged. The next Fed meeting is scheduled for March, and its outcome will depend on inflation trends and the state of the U.S. labor market. Consequently, traders are largely ignoring current economic releases, as they are unlikely to affect the decisions made in January or even those in March.

From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibits a bearish bias. Currently, it is trading between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, remaining below all Ichimoku indicator lines, which indicate a continuing bearish "Parade of Lines." The initial target for this downward movement is 1.0370, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart. The primary target is set at 1.0330, corresponding to the lower Bollinger Band on the weekly chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dollar Extinguishes All Candles

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The brief rally for the EUR/USD currency pair didn't last long. A slowdown in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—an inflation gauge preferred by the Federal Reserve—to 0.1% month-over-month in November, along with statements from FOMC officials indicating that monetary easing would continue into 2025, seemed to trigger a corrective response for the main currency pair. However, comments from Donald Trump on social media and emerging vulnerabilities in the euro brought the situation back to square one.

The president-elect of the United States does not intend to spare anyone. He initially focused on Mexico, Canada, and China. Then, he turned his attention to BRICS countries. However, he didn't stop there; he announced that if the European Union did not increase its purchases of oil and gas from the U.S., he would impose tariffs on European imports. This decision put additional pressure on the euro, as such tariffs could further slow down an already fragile European economy.

Recent forecasts from Bloomberg experts indicate that the eurozone's GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2025, a decrease from the previously anticipated 1.2%. In 2026, growth is projected to be 1.2%, lower than the earlier estimate of 1.4%. These revised estimates are below the European Central Bank's projections, which further emphasize the vulnerability of the euro area.

Eurozone Economic Trends and Forecasts

Germany, once considered the growth engine of Europe, is now causing further economic decline. Analysts forecast that its economy will expand by only 0.4% next year, followed by a 1% growth the year after that.

In contrast, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well. The Atlanta Fed's leading indicator suggests a GDP growth of 3.1% in the fourth quarter. Futures markets show a 91% probability that the Fed will pause its monetary easing cycle in January. Meanwhile, the ECB intends to continue reducing interest rates. Christine Lagarde has stated that the ECB is approaching the point where it can assert that inflation has been brought down to the target level of 2%. If this is the case, there would be little reason to maintain high borrowing costs. The increasing interest rate differential favoring the U.S. could lead to a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Hedge funds and asset managers are increasingly adopting net long positions on the dollar, reaching their highest levels since May. According to HSBC, the dollar is "hitting all the right notes" and shows no signs of weakening in 2025. Additionally, Wells Fargo suggests that Trump's political agenda, including tariffs, will further boost the USD index rally.

Speculative Positions in the U.S. Dollar

It is highly likely that the U.S. dollar will break tradition and end December in a positive position. This month is typically considered seasonally weak for the American currency, which usually declines at year-end. However, every rule has its exceptions.

In the daily chart, another attempt by EUR/USD bulls to launch a counterattack has ended in failure, further demonstrating their weakness. The recent retracement offers an opportunity to open or expand previously established short positions, targeting levels of 1.012 and 1.000. Sticking to the current strategy of selling on pullbacks remains the most logical course of action.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23rd (U.S. Session)

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I mentioned earlier in the day.

With no new signals or benchmarks, traders preferred to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Perhaps this may change later in the day following the release of significant U.S. statistics. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index data is expected, which could trigger volatility—especially if the figures diverge significantly from economists' forecasts. Strong statistics would support buying the dollar and selling the yen. Conversely, disappointing data would reinforce the strengthening yen trend. Regarding intraday strategies, I plan to focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the 157.01 level (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise toward 157.36 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.36, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35 point reversal). The pair's rise will depend on strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.61 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 157.01 and 157.36.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell USD/JPY after breaking below the 156.61 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 156.26, where I plan to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25 point reversal). Renewed dollar pressure is likely only with weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 157.01 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal downward. Declines can be expected toward the opposite levels of 156.61 and 156.26.

Chart Details

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders must exercise extreme caution when making market entries. It is better to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 23rd (U.S. Session)

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2558 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which, in my opinion, limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I refrained from selling the pound, even though there were reasons to do so.

Today's disappointing economic data on the UK GDP caused the pound to decline. Ahead lies the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, which plays a crucial role in gauging consumer sentiment and, consequently, economic activity. If the data surpass economists' forecasts, it could act as a catalyst for dollar strengthening, which would negatively impact the pound's exchange rate. Considering that the pound is already facing several challenges, including uncertainty surrounding the UK's economic recovery, the chances of the pair's growth are slim.

Regarding intraday strategies, I will focus more on the implementation of Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound at the 1.2551 level (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.2600 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2600, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points downward from this level). A rise in the pound can only be expected following weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2513 level, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.2551 and 1.2600.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after breaking below the 1.2513 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2477, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points upward from this level). Sellers will likely dominate only after strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.2551 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.2513 and 1.2477.

Chart Details

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – Suggested price for placing a Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – Suggested price for placing a Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes

Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making entry decisions. It is better to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.