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USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginners on November 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 154.73 in the first half of the day occurred as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by about 50 points.

In the afternoon, US economic activity will drive further market movements. Weak manufacturing and services PMI data could provide reasons to sell USD/JPY. On the other hand, strong data, including a positive Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan, may boost dollar demand, potentially prompting another rise in USD/JPY later in the week. For intraday trading, I will focus on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches approximately 154.55 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.08 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.08, I will exit buy positions and initiate sell positions, expecting a 30–35 point movement downward. A rise in the pair is likely only if US data is strong.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.13 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This setup would limit the pair's downward potential and could lead to a market reversal upward. In this case, I anticipate a rise toward 154.55 and 155.08.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price reaches 154.13 (red line on the chart), which could trigger a sharp decline. The key target for sellers is 153.67, where I will exit sell positions and open buy positions, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Strong US data could reapply selling pressure to the pair.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to fall.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 154.55 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This setup would limit the pair's upward potential and likely lead to a market reversal downward. In this case, I anticipate a decline toward 154.13 and 153.67.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Suggested entry price for a buy position.
• Thick green line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested entry price for a sell position.
• Thick red line: Approximate price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on its movement relative to the zero line when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must exercise caution when entering the market. Avoid trading before major economic reports to minimize risks from sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to reduce risks. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one outlined above. Reacting to immediate market fluctuations without a structured approach often leads to losses for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.2561 occurred as the MACD indicator began moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the pound. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 60 points.

Weak PMI data from the UK services sector signaled trouble, prompting investors to actively sell the British pound. The 50 mark, which separates expansion from contraction, was a critical threshold. Its drop raised serious concerns about the UK economy. Since the services sector represents a significant portion of the UK GDP, this could foreshadow a slowdown in GDP growth in the coming months.

Given these circumstances, market participants have started reassessing their expectations for the Bank of England's monetary policy. A slowdown in services activity could also weaken the labor market. If businesses fail to see demand growth, this may lead to job cuts and reduced consumer spending. The Bank of England must now weigh the risks of slowing economic growth against the pressures of high inflation.

Later today, key US data—including the manufacturing and services PMI—will be released. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index and inflation expectations will also be published. Strong data may further support dollar purchases and add pressure on the pound. For intraday trading, I will focus on scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches around 1.2527 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.2563. At 1.2563, I will exit the market and initiate a short position, aiming for a 30–35 point movement. Strong pound growth today can only be expected if US data is exceptionally weak.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.2497 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This setup would limit the pair's downward potential and could prompt a market reversal upward. In this case, I anticipate growth toward 1.2527 and 1.2563.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound if the price reaches 1.2497 (red line on the chart), resulting in a sharp decline. The key target for sellers is 1.2464, where I will exit the market and initiate a buy position, aiming for a rebound of 20–25 points. Strong US statistics could bolster sellers' confidence.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to fall.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.2527 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This setup would limit the pair's upward potential and likely lead to a downward reversal. In this case, I anticipate a decline toward 1.2497 and 1.2464.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Suggested entry price for a long position.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested entry price for a short position.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting Take Profit or locking in profits manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on its position relative to the zero line and monitor for overbought or oversold signals.

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner traders in the Forex market should exercise caution when entering trades. It is advisable to avoid trading before significant economic reports to prevent losses from sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss orders, your entire deposit could be lost quickly, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, a clear plan—like the one outlined above—is crucial. Spontaneous decisions based on immediate market conditions often lead to losses for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 22nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0480 price level occurred as the MACD indicator began moving upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points before losing momentum. A more effective short entry occurred at the 1.0461 price level. Combined with weak PMI data from the Eurozone, this triggered a sharp drop of over 100 points.

With the Eurozone economy teetering on the brink of recession, it is unsurprising that the European Central Bank remains prepared to raise interest rates aggressively. The possibility of a 0.5% rate hike at the December meeting now appears highly likely. Amid growing uncertainty, European policymakers face the challenge of promoting growth while managing inflation risks to avoid a prolonged crisis. Whether Europe can strike the right balance and regain investor confidence remains to be seen.

Today, US PMI data, which could pressure the euro further, will be released alongside the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. This index, a key indicator of household confidence, reflects public perceptions of financial prospects and the broader economy. It is expected to signal future consumer spending trends—a critical driver of economic growth.

Additionally, the US inflation expectations report will be published. Because consumer confidence and inflation expectations are closely linked, their trends may reveal how consumers intend to respond to future economic changes. This, in turn, could influence Federal Reserve decisions on monetary policy. With slim chances of a euro rally today, I expect continued strengthening of the US dollar. My intraday strategy focuses on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the euro if the price reaches approximately 1.0429 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.0478. At 1.0478, I plan to exit the market and initiate a sell position, aiming for a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Significant growth in the euro will depend on very weak US data.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests the 1.0401 level twice, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the pair's downward potential and could prompt a reversal upward. In this case, I anticipate growth toward 1.0429 and 1.0478.

Sell Signal

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro if the price reaches 1.0401 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0356, where I will exit the market and initiate a reverse buy position, aiming for a rebound of 20–25 points. Strong US data could increase pressure on the pair.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests the 1.0429 level twice, while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a reversal downward. In this case, I anticipate a decline toward 1.0401 and 1.0356.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Suggested entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: Target price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Suggested entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: Target price for setting a Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, focus on its position relative to the zero line and whether it is indicating overbought or oversold conditions.

Important Notes for Beginners

Beginner traders in the Forex market should exercise caution when making entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize risks. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

For successful trading, a clear plan—like the one outlined above—is essential. Spontaneous trading decisions based on immediate market movements are often a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. November 22. Business Activity Indices Weigh on the Euro

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated below the 323.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0532 and continued its decline. Today, the price reached the 1.0420 level and came close to the 423.6% Fibonacci level at 1.0320. In my view, bears have started locking in profits, suggesting a potential pullback. The sharp decline in the euro today is often a sign of a final downward move.

The wave structure is clear. The last completed upward wave failed to surpass the peak of the previous wave, while the ongoing downward wave has easily broken through the last two lows. This indicates the pair is continuing its bearish trend. Bulls have lost control of the market entirely. Regaining it would require significant effort, which seems improbable in the near term. For the current trend to reverse, the pair would need to rise above the 1.0800 level—a scenario that appears unlikely in the short term.

On Thursday, the economic backdrop for the euro was not particularly favorable or eventful for traders. Several US reports triggered further strength in the US dollar, though the data itself was not overwhelmingly positive. The number of jobless claims was 213,000, slightly better than the expected 220,000. The Philadelphia PMI came in at -5.5, against forecasts of 8 to 10, while new home sales reached 3.96 million compared to expectations of 3.93 million. Despite this, the US dollar rallied throughout the day.

Today, however, the euro faced a more significant setback. Business activity indices for Germany and the EU's manufacturing sectors were largely in line with expectations, but the services sector delivered surprisingly weaker results. The market reacted with heavy euro selling, resulting in a drop of 150 points. This decline was excessive and disproportionate to the data, suggesting it was the final push by the bears before they pause for some time.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair retraced to the 100% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.0603, rebounded from it, and turned in favor of the US dollar. At the same time, bearish divergence formed on the CCI and RSI indicators. This provided several signals that the euro's decline had resumed, which were quickly executed. The pair has already closed below the 1.0436 level, paving the way for further declines toward the next Fibonacci corrective level of 161.8% at 1.0225.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the last reporting week, speculators opened 103 long positions and closed 14,113 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has shifted to a bearish stance. Speculators now hold 160,000 long positions and 167,000 short positions.

For eight consecutive weeks, large market participants have been shedding the euro. This trend signals either the emergence of a new bearish movement or, at the very least, a strong global correction. The key factor driving the dollar's previous decline—expectations of a dovish shift by the FOMC—has already been priced in. With no immediate reason for a mass selloff of the dollar, the likelihood of continued USD strength remains higher. Technical analysis also supports the formation of a long-term bearish trend. Therefore, I anticipate a prolonged decline in the EUR/USD pair. The latest COT report provides no indication of a shift toward bullish sentiment.

Economic Calendar for the US and EU:

• EU: Germany GDP Change (07:00 UTC)
• EU: Germany Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC)
• EU: Germany Services PMI (08:30 UTC)
• EU: Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC)
• EU: Eurozone Services PMI (09:00 UTC)
• US: Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• US: Services PMI (14:45 UTC)
• US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On November 23, the economic calendar includes several significant entries. These events could exert a notable influence on market sentiment for the remainder of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Sales of the pair were possible with a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0662. This target was achieved. Closing below this level allowed traders to maintain sales with targets at 1.0603 and 1.0532, both of which were also reached. A rebound from the 1.0603 level indicated opportunities for additional sales with targets at 1.0532 and 1.0420. These targets have been met as well.

I do not recommend buying the pair for now, despite the possibility of bears taking a short pause.

Fibonacci retracement levels are built from 1.1003 to 1.1214 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603 to 1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: November 22 - Another Decline for the Pound

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its downward movement on Thursday and extended its decline into Friday. Today, the pair has reached the 1.2517 level, where the decline may temporarily pause. Bearish traders are aggressively selling the pound, disregarding the significance of incoming data. A rebound from the 1.2517 level could signal the start of a long-awaited correction.

The wave pattern is clear. The most recent completed upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, while the ongoing downward wave has already broken two prior lows. This confirms the continuation of the bearish trend. For signs of a reversal, the pair must return to the 1.2710 level and close above the last peak.

On Thursday, there was little in the way of market-moving information for the pound, but this did not hinder the bears. They continued to sell the British currency. The sell-off intensified this morning when the UK released disappointing reports on business activity and retail sales. Retail trade volumes in October fell by 0.7%, worse than the forecasted -0.3%. The services PMI dropped from 52 to 50, and the manufacturing PMI declined from 49.9 to 48.6. These figures further accelerated the pound's downward momentum.

The US reports have yet to be released, but the pound has already fallen by 90 points. The decline may continue into the afternoon when three key US economic reports are scheduled for release. Similar data earlier today drove nearly a 100-point move, so further volatility is expected. In my view, the pound's decline is entirely justified. As I've noted in the "Commitments of Traders" section before, the pound's value should be lower than it was a month or two ago.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair successfully broke below the 1.2620 and 1.2565 levels, paving the way for a further decline toward the next support at 1.2450. At this time, there are no signs of a bearish retreat. Regularly forming bullish divergences appear to have little impact on traders in the current environment.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became more bullish during the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 745, while the number of short positions fell by 11,711. Despite these changes, bulls still maintain a significant advantage, with the gap between long and short positions standing at 56,000: 120,000 longs versus 64,000 shorts.

In my opinion, the outlook for the pound remains bearish, and the COT reports suggest a strengthening of bearish positions. Over the past three months, the number of Long positions has increased from 102,000 to 120,000, while the number of shorts has risen from 55,000 to 64,000. Professional traders are likely to continue liquidating Long positions or increasing Short positions, as most supportive factors for the pound have already been priced in. Technical analysis also supports further downward potential for the pound.

US and UK Economic Calendars:

• UK: Manufacturing PMI (09:30 UTC)
• UK: Services PMI (09:30 UTC)
• US: Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC)
• US: Services PMI (14:45 UTC)
• US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

Friday's economic calendar includes six key events, three of which have already triggered a significant decline in the pound. The information flow may continue to influence trader sentiment moderately for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Trading Tips:

Sales of the pair were possible following a rebound from the 1.3044 level on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.2931. This target was hit twice. Subsequent targets at 1.2931, 1.2892, 1.2788–1.2801, 1.2752, and 1.2611–1.2620 were also reached. Closing below the 1.2611–1.2620 zone allowed for further sales targeting 1.2570 and 1.2517, which have also been achieved.

At this time, I do not recommend buying the pair in a bearish trend. The downward movement shows no signs of ending.

Fibonacci Levels:

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3000 to 1.3432 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 22nd (Analysis of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0497 level and planned trading decisions around it. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to review what happened. A rise and the formation of a false breakout provided an entry point for short positions, resulting in a decline of over 100 points. The technical outlook has been revised for the second half of the day.

For Opening Long Positions in EUR/USD:

Extremely weak PMI data from the Eurozone triggered a significant sell-off in the euro during the first half of the day. The slowdown in manufacturing and services activity explains recent comments from European policymakers about the need for aggressive interest rate cuts in the Eurozone. Similarly important data is expected from the US in the second half of the day, including the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, composite PMI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations. Strong readings from these indicators would further pressure the euro and strengthen the US dollar, so caution is advised when considering long positions.

If the statistics are favorable and the pair declines, I will focus on trading near the support level of 1.0383, which was formed earlier in the day. A false breakout at this level would confirm a valid entry point for long positions, targeting a recovery to the resistance at 1.0437. A breakout and retest of this range would create new opportunities for long positions, with the next target being 1.0497. The farthest target is 1.0542, where I plan to take profits. If the EUR/USD continues to decline and bulls show no activity at 1.0383, the bearish trend will likely persist. In that case, I will only consider entering long positions after a false breakout at the next support level of 1.0333, the new monthly low. Alternatively, I plan to buy on a rebound from 1.0292, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions in EUR/USD:

If the pair rises following the reports, sellers will need to defend resistance at 1.0437. A false breakout at this level, combined with strong US data, would allow for short positions targeting the support at 1.0383. A breakout and a retest of this range from below would likely lead to further declines toward the new monthly low at 1.0333. This move would reinforce the bearish trend in the pair. The farthest target is 1.0292, where I plan to take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day despite strong PMI data, buyers will have a chance to attempt a correction by the end of the week. In this scenario, I will postpone selling until the pair tests the next resistance level at 1.0497, where the moving averages are aligned in favor of sellers. I will sell at this level only after a false breakout. If no downward movement occurs at this level, I will consider short positions on a rebound around 1.0542, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders):

The latest COT report shows a slight increase in long positions and a sharp reduction in short positions. The data reflects the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates and the presidency of Donald Trump. At the current lows, it seems fewer traders are willing to sell the euro, which could indicate a potential bottom for EUR/USD and the start of a medium-term reversal of the bearish trend. However, there is insufficient data to support this conclusion at this time. The absence of significant buyers for the euro is more notable than the reduction in short positions.

According to the latest COT report, non-commercial long positions increased by 103, reaching 160,003, while short positions fell by 14,113 to 167,113. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 3,761.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling renewed downward pressure on the pair.Note: The author uses moving averages based on the hourly chart (H1), which differs from the classical daily moving averages (D1).

Bollinger Bands:

If the pair declines, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands near 1.0383 will act as a support level.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • Period: 50 (yellow on the chart)
  • Period: 30 (green on the chart)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA: Period 12
  • Slow EMA: Period 26
  • SMA: Period 9
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: Represents the total open long positions of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Represents the total open short positions of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on November 22nd (Analysis of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.2560 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to analyze what happened. A drop and the formation of a false breakout provided an entry point for buying the pound. However, this did not lead to a significant upward movement in the pair. Purchases around 1.2495, following a large sell-off in the pair, generated a profit of approximately 40 points. The technical picture has been revised for the second half of the day.

For Opening Long Positions in GBP/USD:

Very weak PMI data from the UK triggered an active sell-off of the British pound in the first half of the day. Activity in the key UK services sector halted growth in November, which is a concerning sign for the entire economy. In the second half of the day, similar reports are expected from the US: the manufacturing PMI, the services PMI, and the composite PMI. A rise in these indicators would provide another reason to sell the pound, even though the pair is trading at weekly and monthly lows.

I will only consider buying the pound after a drop and the formation of a false breakout around the support level of 1.2495. This would confirm a valid entry point for long positions, with a target to recover to the resistance level of 1.2555, formed earlier in the day. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range would present a new opportunity for entering long positions, with the potential to reach 1.2606. The farthest target would be the level around 1.2654, where I plan to take profits.

If GBP/USD continues to decline and there is no bullish activity at 1.2495, which is the monthly low, bears will have an opportunity to establish a new trend. A false breakout around 1.2469 would be the only suitable condition for opening long positions. Alternatively, I plan to buy GBP/USD on a rebound from the 1.2448 low, targeting a 30–35 point intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions in GBP/USD:

The pressure on the pound is enormous—especially as the Bank of England has decided not to lower interest rates, restricting the economy's access to cheap money and new investments. However, given the low levels the pair is trading at, combined with the approaching end of the week, selling must be approached cautiously.

It is better to wait for the pair to rise and for active bearish movements near the resistance level of 1.2555. A false breakout at this level, paired with strong US data, would create an ideal entry point for selling. The target would be a continued downward movement toward the monthly low of 1.2495. A breakout and retest of this range from below would leave buyers with no opportunities, clearing the path to the 1.2469 low. The farthest target would be the 1.2448 level, where I plan to take profits.

If GBP/USD rises and there is no bearish activity at 1.2555—especially following strong US data—buyers will have a good opportunity for a correction at the end of the week. In this case, bears would likely retreat to the resistance area of 1.2606, where moving averages also align in their favor. I will only sell at this level if a false breakout occurs. If downward movement is absent at this level, I will consider short positions on a rebound from around 1.2654, targeting an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders):

In the latest COT report, long and short positions were both reduced. The current figures account for Donald Trump's presidency and the Bank of England's interest rate cuts during the November meeting. However, the large reduction in short positions simply indicates that fewer traders are willing to sell at current prices. Meanwhile, as the data shows, there are still no significant buyers, making a major correction in the pound unlikely in the near term.

Considering weak GDP data from the UK, the rationale for buying the pound becomes even weaker. The latest COT report reveals that non-commercial long positions decreased by 745, to a total of 119,992, while short positions decreased by 11,711, to 63,942. Consequently, the gap between long and short positions increased by 1,162.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is taking place below the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling further downward pressure on the pair.Note: The author considers moving averages on the hourly chart (H1), which differs from the classical daily moving averages (D1).

Bollinger Bands:

If the pair declines further, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands, around 1.2520, will act as a support level.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average (MA): Defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise.
  • Period: 50 (shown in yellow on the chart)
  • Period: 30 (shown in green on the chart)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA: Period 12
  • Slow EMA: Period 26
  • SMA: Period 9
• Bollinger Bands: Period 20
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for November 22-25, 2024: sell below $2,709 (5/8 Murray - 61.8%)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 2,698, above 5/8 Murray, and above the 200 EMA and 21 SMA with a strongly bullish bias. The metal is about to reach extremely overbought levels.

Gold accelerated its upward movement during the European session and reached a high of 2,709.85, the level last seen at the beginning of November. Gold will likely make a strong technical correction in the next few hours, with the target at about 4/8 of Murray located at 2,656.

Since gold has broken all technical levels, it is now located around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which represents a key level for a technical reversal. So, we will look for opportunities to sell below the 5/8 Murray level located at 2,695.

In case gold continues its bullish bias, we can expect it to find strong resistance around 6/8 Murray located at 2,734. This level could be a strong barrier for gold, but we believe that a technical correction could occur first and then, the price will continue its bullish cycle.

The eagle indicator reached the 95-point zone which means that a technical correction could occur in the next few days and we even expect gold to return to levels around 2,560 where it left the gap at the beginning of the trading week.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 22-25, 2024: buy above 1.0376 (1/8 Murray - rebound)

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Early in the American session, the euro is trading around 1.0419, bouncing after reaching the low of 1.0331 that occurred after the Eurozone PMI data surprisingly contracted.

The euro is likely to resume its bearish cycle again and could find good support around 1.0376. From that level, we could look for buying opportunities.

In case the euro rebounds above 1/8 Murray, EUR/USD is expected to again reach the psychological level of 1.0500 or the 21 SMA located at 1.0538.

Technically, the EUR/USD pair has resumed its bearish cycle. This suggests that we could expect a consolidation above 1.0376 in the next few days. Otherwise, we could expect the euro to continue its fall to 0/8 Murray located at 1.0253.

We should keep an eye on the 1/8 Murray level. A technical rebound is expected above this area. Therefore, it could be viewed as a signal to buy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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For the fifth consecutive day, gold is rising, reaching nearly a two-week high just below the psychologically significant level of $2700. Ongoing geopolitical risks continue to support the precious metal as a safe-haven asset, extending its weekly upward trend. Additionally, the fiscal stimulus policies of the newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump may again trigger inflationary pressures, providing another factor favoring gold as a hedge against inflation.

Sustained buying of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of inflation data, does not significantly impact demand for gold. This reflects the Federal Reserve's perceived inability to implement further rate cuts. Bulls in the XAU/USD pair disregard the prevailing risk-on sentiment, maintaining that the most probable direction for the precious metal is upward.

Gold may accelerate its upward movement once it decisively breaks above the psychologically significant $2700 level.

The breakout above $2665, which coincides with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on the daily chart, triggered bullish momentum. Additionally, technical indicators on the daily chart have regained positive momentum, supporting the outlook for further price growth in the precious metal. The current bullish trend in the gold market could be confirmed if the $2700 level is surpassed, potentially paving the way for higher price levels.

On the other hand, it is technically important to monitor the $2665 level, which has become a key support level following the overnight breakout. If the price falls below this level, the next significant support will be between $2635 - $2625. Below that lies the psychologically significant $2600 level. A decisive break below this point could expose gold to an accelerated decline toward the 100-day SMA, potentially revisiting last week's low. Failure to defend these levels would favor the bears, preparing the market for deeper losses.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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On the last day of the week, before the European session began, the USD/CAD pair showed a slight increase. However, it lacks strong buying pressure, keeping it below the psychological threshold of 1.4000. This is due to varied market signals.

More positive economic news from Canada, particularly the CPI data published on Tuesday, influenced investor sentiment. It reduced expectations for a significant rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Nevertheless, the recovery in oil prices supports the Canadian dollar, creating pressure on the USD/CAD pair. At the same time, expectations of a tighter monetary policy continue to support the US dollar, adding resilience to its position.

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair has demonstrated some resilience above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.

The subsequent rise, along with positive oscillators on the daily chart, suggests that the least resistant path for spot market prices is upward. However, the lack of significant buying interest raises concerns about sustained upward momentum.

For the bears, the key level to break lies around 1.3900. If the price breaks through this level, it could initiate a further decline toward intermediate support at 1.3855 and the monthly low near 1.3820. Below that, the round level of 1.3800 becomes significant, and a decisive break below this point could set the stage for deeper losses.

On the other hand, if the price reliably closes above the round level of 1.4000, it will signal further upward movement. This could allow the USD/CAD pair to surpass the weekly high and aim for the next resistance levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 22/11/2024: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Oil, USDX and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Video Agenda:

00:00 INTRO 00:14 Totay's key events: German GDP, HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, ECB's Schnabel Speaks 02:45 EUR/USD 04:29 GBP/USD 05:28 USDX 06:33 OIL 07:15 BTC/USD

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Riding the Crest of a Wave: Nvidia Boosts Wall Street, Bitcoin Challenges $100K, Dollar High

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Stock Markets Recover After Unsettled Trading

World stock indexes rose on Thursday despite mixed sentiment among investors. The main topic of trading was Nvidia's forecasts, which, while still positive, fell short of market expectations. At the same time, Bitcoin continued its confident movement, approaching the psychological mark of $100,000.

Nvidia: records and disappointment

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), a company whose technologies are shaping the future of artificial intelligence, started the session with an impressive takeoff, reaching a historical maximum. However, their dynamics later slowed down, and by the end of the day, growth was only 0.53%. Investors were concerned about the company's forecasts: the expected revenue growth was the most modest in the last seven quarters.

"Nvidia's results are still impressive, but the lack of brighter prospects for the fourth quarter may have cooled the market's enthusiasm a little," commented Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Wall Street: growth despite losses of giants

On American exchanges, the session ended on a positive note. Major indexes rose, led by gains in utilities, financials, consumer discretionary and industrials. However, communications services remained in the red, led by significant losses in Alphabet (GOOGL.O), which fell 6%.

Alphabet faces a new challenge as US authorities demand Google abandon its Chrome browser to eliminate its dominance in internet search. The lawsuit has left investors nervous and the tech giant's shares tumbling.

More challenges ahead for the market

Despite the upbeat close, investors continue to closely monitor corporate forecasts and the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin expectations and the future performance of the largest tech companies remain the main themes for the market.

Dow triumphs, Nasdaq moderately gains

US stock indexes ended the session with varying degrees of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.06% to 43,870.35, posting a solid gain. The broad-based S&P 500 rose 0.53% to 5,948.71. The Nasdaq Composite, however, was relatively flat, up a modest 0.03% to 18,972.42.

Europe: Tech, Energy Lead Gains

The MSCI Global Index, which tracks stocks around the world, also showed positive momentum, adding 0.38% to 851.05. However, the day was choppy as uncertainty swept the markets. European stocks, as represented by the STOXX (.STOXX), rose 0.41%, led by a rally in the tech and energy sectors.

"There's a bit of a news vacuum in the market right now, which makes it hard to pinpoint a clear direction," said Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers.

Bitcoin Heads for $100,000

The cryptocurrency market continues to impress, with Bitcoin, the world's largest digital currency, steadily heading toward the $100,000 mark. It has gained 3.75% in the past 24 hours to reach $98,005. Bitcoin has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 5. Investors attribute this momentum to expectations that the new administration will be favorable to cryptocurrencies.

Ethereum Gains Strength

It's not just Bitcoin that's showing strength: Ethereum is also showing remarkable results. The cryptocurrency has gained 8.77% to end the day at $3,350.80.

Treasury Secretary in Investors' Crosshairs

Markets are tensely awaiting the appointment of the Treasury Secretary in the new Trump administration. The choice will be key to implementing policies that include tax cuts, deregulation, and tariff initiatives.

Global markets are currently awaiting new guidance, with cryptocurrencies already betting on a looser economic policy. Investors continue to closely monitor Trump's actions and their impact on the global financial arena.

A strong labor market supports the dollar

The US dollar rose amid an unexpected decline in jobless claims, indicating a resilient labor market. An additional factor was the statements by Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the possibility of further interest rate hikes.

However, currency movements were mixed. The dollar fell 0.62% against the Japanese yen, falling to 154.45, but strengthened against the Swiss franc by 0.29%, reaching 0.887.

Dollar Index on the Rise

The dollar index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.37% to 107, its highest in 13 months. The euro, by contrast, weakened, losing 0.41% to $1.0479.

Russia and Ukraine Shake Up Oil Markets

Oil prices jumped sharply, gaining about 2%, after reports of a missile exchange between Russia and Ukraine, raising concerns about the stability of crude supplies to the global market.

Brent crude futures rose 1.95% to $74.23 a barrel, while WTI futures added 2% to $70.10. Investors are worried that geopolitical tensions could continue to push prices higher.

Fourth straight session of growth

The gold market is showing positive dynamics, strengthening its position as a safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures also went up, adding 0.9% and reaching $2,674.90.

Gold's growth is accompanied by increasing interest from investors who are looking for stability in the face of global economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.

Financial markets: new challenges and opportunities

The combination of economic factors such as a strong labor market and the Fed's comments with geopolitical risks creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment for investors. Currency and commodity markets continue to react to the rapidly changing news background, making strategy selection key to success.

Why the US retains its leadership?

US stocks continue to strengthen their positions, significantly outperforming global peers. Investors associate this with hopes for the implementation of the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump. But the key to success will be the administration's ability to avoid escalating trade tensions and keep the budget deficit under control.

The S&P 500 (.SPX) has risen an impressive 24% in 2024, outpacing the major benchmarks in Europe, Asia and emerging markets. The premium of the US index over the MSCI index of more than 40 countries has reached 22 times expected returns, according to LSEG Datastream. This is the largest gap in the last 20 years.

Tech and Economy on the US Side

Despite more than a decade of US stock dominance, the gap has widened this year, thanks to robust US economic growth and strong corporate earnings. The tech sector continues to be a driving force, with the excitement around artificial intelligence driving growth for companies such as Nvidia (NVDA.O).

A New Wave of Investing in Technology

Nvidia, a recognized leader in AI chips, continues to be a bellwether for tech companies. The success of Nvidia and other players in the industry shows that investors are betting on the future of tech, which will be defined by artificial intelligence.

"The US stock market is currently playing to its strengths: innovation, corporate profits, and economic resilience," analysts say.

How long will the US maintain its leadership?

While the current situation seems optimistic, the market is not immune to risks. Investors are closely monitoring the steps of the new administration, especially on tax policy, tariffs, and the budget. Any deviation from this course could be a turning point for the market.

Global Competition: Can the World Catch Up with the US?

While other regions, including Europe and emerging markets, are struggling with challenges such as slowing economic growth and geopolitical instability, the US continues to set the standard. However, the competition is not abating, and global markets may start to close the gap in the coming years.

US stocks remain at the top, but the question is how long this position will last. Investors should be prepared for changes and watch developments closely.

Taxes, deregulation and tariffs: a recipe for success?

Donald Trump's economic platform of tax cuts, deregulation and the use of tariffs as leverage has provoked mixed reactions. However, many experts believe that these measures can strengthen the US leadership on the global stage, despite possible side effects such as inflation and trade conflicts.

"Given the stimulative nature of the new administration's policies, US stocks will struggle to find worthy rivals at least until the end of 2025," says Venu Krishna, head of US equity strategy at Barclays.

Investors vote for the US

Following the November 5 election, inflows into US equity funds have reached record levels. In the week since the vote, investors have poured more than $80 billion into U.S. assets. By contrast, European and emerging markets have seen significant capital outflows, according to Deutsche Bank.

This shift in priorities reflects growing confidence in the U.S. market amid expectations for higher returns and stability.

U.S. companies continue to dominate

One of the main reasons for the resilience of the U.S. market is impressive corporate earnings growth. LSEG Datastream forecasts S&P 500 earnings to grow 9.9% in 2024 and 14.2% in 2025.

By comparison, Europe's Stoxx 600 index is expected to grow more modestly: 1.8% this year and 8.1% next year. The gap underscores the U.S. lead in corporate profitability.

"America remains the region that has the highest earnings growth and maintains strong profitability," says Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors.

What's next for the market?

Experts note that even if global markets begin to catch up with the US, the US market will remain a key point of attraction for investors due to its sustainable growth and pro-business policies.

However, the question remains: will the Trump administration be able to balance ambitious reforms without causing side effects that could undermine this success? Investors will continue to watch every step, assessing how the implementation of the economic program will affect the dynamics of global markets.

$14 trillion versus Europe: the imbalance is growing

The largest US tech companies play a key role in the country's economic leadership. The five giants - Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet - are valued at a whopping $14 trillion. By comparison, the market capitalization of all 600 companies in the European STOXX 600 index is about $11 trillion, according to LSEG data.

It is the strong performance of these corporations that accounts for much of the growth of the S&P 500 index, making it a favorite for investors.

GDP growth outpaces global indicators

Forecasts for the coming years show that the United States will continue to outpace other countries in terms of economic growth. According to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, US GDP will increase by 2.8% in 2024 and by 2.2% in 2025. In comparison, the economies of the eurozone countries expect modest growth: 0.8% this year and 1.2% next year.

This advantage is supported by strong support for the technology sector, which continues to be the engine of development.

Import duties as a pressure tool

One of Donald Trump's key initiatives is to increase import tariffs. Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, believes that such measures, even with certain costs, will strengthen the position of the United States.

"If tariffs in the range of 10-20% are imposed on goods from Europe, they will suffer much more than we will," Mullaney noted.

Trump is betting on protecting the American market, which could become an additional lever for strengthening the economy.

Republican control strengthens its position

The consolidation of Republican power in Washington opens up more opportunities for Trump to implement his agenda. This has already affected economists' forecasts. Deutsche Bank has improved its expectations for US GDP growth in 2025, increasing its forecast from 2.2% to 2.5%.

The political support of the Trump administration, technological leadership, and ambitious plans for economic reform make the United States a central player on the world stage. The only question is how long it will be able to maintain this advantage.

Limited capabilities of Congress

While tax cuts and deregulation remain the main drivers of Donald Trump's economic program, a narrow majority in Congress could limit the implementation of the most radical initiatives. Among them are tariffs, which have already caused active debate. As analysts note, the administration will take into account the reaction of the markets to avoid undue pressure.

S&P 500 Forecasts: From 5100 to 6600

Experts at UBS Global Wealth Management predict that the S&P 500 index could reach 6600 next year. Such growth is due to several factors: progress in artificial intelligence, lower interest rates, tax reforms, and deregulation.

However, a scenario of a full-scale trade war with China and other partners could have negative consequences. If countries begin to take retaliatory measures against American tariffs, the index could fall to 5100 points. UBS emphasizes that in this case, global markets will also suffer.

Government contracts and pharmaceuticals under pressure

Not all industries are enthusiastic about Trump's reforms. Concerns about reducing bureaucracy have already hit shares of government contractors. Drugmakers have also found themselves in a difficult situation after the appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a well-known vaccine skeptic, to the post of head of the Department of Health and Human Services.

Such decisions create uncertainty for individual sectors of the economy, increasing volatility in the stock market.

Budget deficit and bonds under pressure

A radical tax cut carries the risk of increasing the national debt. It is these fears that triggered the recent sell-off in US bonds, which led to an increase in the yield on 10-year notes.

Financial experts warn that a possible increase in the deficit could put pressure on the market, creating problems for long-term investments.

On the brink of change: what to expect from Trump's policies?

The reforms promised by the administration create both opportunities and risks. The forecasts for the US economy remain strong, but their implementation will depend on the ability to find a balance between ambitious initiatives and the reaction of the markets.

Investors, in turn, are closely monitoring every step in order to adapt their strategies in time in a rapidly changing economic environment.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 22. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 154.34 price level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair fell by 30 pips but failed to reach the target level. Buy signals at 154.64 were ignored since the MACD was far from the zero mark at the time of testing. Today's news about the rise in Japan's Consumer Price Index temporarily strengthened the yen, increasing expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. However, the strong US dollar continues to attract demand amid the complex geopolitical landscape.

In the context of rising prices in Japan, a key question remains: how will the BOJ choose to act? Investors are closely monitoring its next steps, looking for signs of potential monetary policy tightening, which could further drive yen purchases and dollar declines. Sustained inflation growth could trigger a shift in interest rate policy, resulting in further fluctuations for the yen in the currency market. However, strengthening the yen could negatively impact Japan's export-oriented companies, which form a significant part of its economy.

Despite this, it's advisable not to rush into selling. Amid global uncertainty, the US dollar retains its appeal as a "safe haven" currency. Investors' desire to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical conflicts and economic instability continues to support its position. It's important to understand that the balance between yen demand and the strong dollar will determine market dynamics in the coming months. For intraday strategies, I will focus on implementing Scenarios 1 and 2, as described below.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 155.04 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.40 (thicker green line). Exit purchases at 155.40 and consider opening sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip movement from the level. Pair growth can be expected, but buying during corrections is better. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning its upward movement.

Scenario 2:

Also, plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests 154.73 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 155.04 and 155.40.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1:

The plan is to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 154.73 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick pair decline. The key target for sellers will be 154.25, where I plan to exit sales and consider immediate purchases in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario 2:

Also, plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 155.04 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 154.73 and 154.25.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 22. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2650 price level coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I refrained from buying the pound. Closer to the middle of the US session, the test of the 1.2630 price level occurred as the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, allowing me to sell the pound and achieve a substantial decline of over 60 pips.

With the US dollar continuing to strengthen, the British pound is vulnerable. Market participants closely monitor the Bank of England's actions as it considers maintaining rates at current levels despite economic challenges. However, with rising inflation and economic uncertainty, the question remains whether the central bank can manage this situation without additional easing measures. Additionally, concerns about global economic stability are increasing pressure on the pound. The strengthening dollar, driven by demand for safe-haven assets, makes traders more cautious, further exacerbating the situation. The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure, with future fluctuations influenced by UK domestic policies and external factors, including the global economic outlook.

Today, a series of reports will be released, including UK retail sales, the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and the composite PMI. These reports will shed light on the state of the UK economy amid restrictive monetary policy. Weak data could push the pound even lower. I will focus on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, which are detailed below for intraday strategies.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Plan to buy the pound today at the 1.2587 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.2616 (thicker green line). Exit purchases at 1.2616 and open sales in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip movement from the level. A rise in the pound today can be expected following strong data releases. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2:

Also, plan to buy the pound if the price tests the 1.2561 level twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and may trigger an upward market reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.2587 and 1.2616.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2561 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.2535, where I plan to exit sales and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level. Selling the pound is preferable at higher levels. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario 2:

Also, plan to sell the pound if the price tests the 1.2587 level twice in a row, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may trigger a downward market reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.2561 and 1.2535.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 22. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0513 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to sell the euro along the downtrend. As a result, the pair dropped by more than 40 pips, reaching the target level of 1.0478.

This morning, significant economic data is expected, which could strongly influence market direction. The key releases include figures on Germany's GDP, the manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and the composite PMI for the Eurozone. If the data confirms negative expectations, it could lead to further declines in the euro against major global currencies. Traders are also likely to reassess their positions and look for safer assets, such as the US dollar or gold.

Today's data will provide a significant opportunity to assess the Eurozone economy's actual state and resilience to external shocks. For intraday strategy, I plan to focus primarily on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, outlined below.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Buy the euro today at the 1.0480 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.0511. Exit the market at 1.0511 and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip movement from the entry point. Consider an upward move in the euro today in the first half of the day only if the reports are positive and within the framework of a corrective upward trend. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.

Scenario 2:

Also, consider buying the euro today if the price tests the 1.0461 level twice in a row and the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and could trigger an upward reversal. Expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.0480 and 1.0511.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1:

Plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.0461 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0433. Exit the market at 1.0433 and consider buying immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level. Selling at higher levels is preferable to maximize returns. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.

Scenario 2:

Also, consider selling the euro today if the price tests the 1.0480 level twice in a row and the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could trigger a reversal downward. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0461 and 1.0433.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD for November 22 – Technical Analysis

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EUR/USD

Higher Timeframes

Bearish players renewed the minimum consolidation low yesterday, resuming the downward movement. The following downside targets on the chart are the monthly medium-term trend (1.0454) and the 100% completion level of the weekly Ichimoku cloud breakout target (1.0410). Failure to maintain the bearish sentiment could return the pair to the consolidation zone, with the resistance of the daily short-term trend now positioned at 1.0564.

H4 – H1

On lower timeframes, the market continues to operate below the key levels of 1.0497 – 1.0552 (central Pivot Point + weekly long-term trend), giving the bears a distinct advantage. This increases the likelihood of extending the downward trend. Intraday downside targets are the supports of the classic Pivot Points, located today at 1.0440, 1.0405, and 1.0348. A shift in sentiment and a rise above the key levels (1.0497 – 1.0552) could alter the balance of power, directing attention to the upward targets at 1.0589 and 1.0624 (classic Pivot Point resistances).

***

GBP/USD

Higher Timeframes

The pound attempted to break out of its consolidation zone yesterday and began testing the weekly Ichimoku cloud (1.2587 – 1.2563). If the bears break through the cloud, the following targets are the 100% completion of the Ichimoku breakout target (1.2498) and monthly support at 1.2474. If the pair rebounds from these supports, the market could return to the consolidation zone, aiming for the resistance of the daily short-term trend at 1.2718.

H4 – H1

The bears currently hold the advantage on lower timeframes, driving the downward movement further. The intraday downside targets are the supports of the classic Pivot Points, located at 1.2554, 1.2522, and 1.2470. Should the bulls reclaim the key levels at 1.2606 – 1.2645 (weekly long-term trend + central Pivot Point), the balance of power would shift, supporting bullish momentum with the following targets at the classic Pivot Point resistances of 1.2690 and 1.2722.

***

Technical Analysis Tools Used:

Higher Timeframes: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibonacci Kijun levels

Lower Timeframes (H1): Classic Pivot Points + 120 Moving Average (weekly long-term trend)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for GBP/USD on November 22: The Pound Follows the Euro

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair continued to trade downward. Like the euro, the British pound had no significant reasons to fall during the day. However, this is irrelevant. We have often stated that the pound sterling is overbought and has risen over the past two years primarily due to expectations of future monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve. The market is priced in the entire rate-cut cycle "in advance." We are now witnessing a reversal because factors like the Bank of England easing or the UK's and US's economic states have been overlooked for the same two years.

At first glance, it seems paradoxical that the Fed cuts rates while the dollar strengthens. However, this is precisely the scenario we warned traders about throughout 2024. Thus, the pair no longer requires specific macroeconomic or fundamental reasons to trend downward almost daily.

On Thursday, there were no significant events in the UK, while the US saw minor reports on jobless claims and new home sales. We strongly doubt that these reports caused the market to continue buying dollars after two months of virtually uninterrupted growth. Both reports were not optimistic enough to justify an additional 70-pip rally for the dollar.

Further declines should be expected now that the pound has broken out of its horizontal channel. The nearest target is the 1.2516 level. Yesterday, two solid signals were generated near the critical line, though intraday movements remained somewhat chaotic. However, the most critical outcome is that the price broke through the 1.2605–1.2620 area, signaling potential further declines.

COT Report

The COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been highly volatile in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently intersect and usually hover near the zero mark. The most recent downward trend coincided with the red line being below zero. Currently, the red line is above zero.

According to the latest COT report, the non-commercial group closed 700 BUY contracts and 11,700 SELL contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders grew by 11,000 contracts over the week. While the market is not rushing to sell the pound sterling in the medium term, the movements of the past six weeks are encouraging.

The fundamental backdrop still provides no basis for long-term pound purchases, and the pound has a realistic chance of resuming its global downtrend. However, on the weekly timeframe, there is an upward trendline. Until this trendline is broken, long-term expectations of a decline in the pound remain speculative. For now, the pound continues to demonstrate significant resilience against the dollar.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

The GBP/USD pair maintains a generally bearish bias on the hourly timeframe. The previous upward trend has been nullified, and further declines in the pound are expected to be significant and prolonged. The last correction was flat and has already concluded. A new corrective flat also ended. No fundamental reasons justify substantial growth in the pound; even the UK inflation report failed to support it.

For November 22, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2429-1.2445, 1.2516, 1.2605-1.2620, 1.2796-1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, and 1.3050. Senkou Span B (1.2803) and Kijun-sen (1.2643) lines can also be sources of signals. Setting the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 pips in the right direction is recommended. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Friday, the UK will release PMI reports, though it's worth noting that S&P indices hold limited significance for the dollar compared to US ISM reports. The UK will also publish a retail sales report, while the US will release the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Chart Explanations:

Support and resistance levels: thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the 1-hour timeframe. These are strong lines.

Extreme levels: thin red lines where the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts: The net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on November 22: The Euro Slides Further

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend. Over the past few days, the price has been moving sideways in a flat, range-bound channel. However, yesterday, we mentioned that the price had started to decline within this flat, which could mark the beginning of another leg down for the euro. During the day, the price broke below the 1.0485 level, effectively breaching the lower boundary of the horizontal channel. As anticipated, the euro remains highly overbought and unjustifiably expensive. Thus, its decline was expected.

Previously, we indicated that the minimum target for the pair's decline is around 1.0450. However, in reality, the euro could fall much further. Parity with the dollar is a realistic target over the coming months. Remarkably, the euro's rapid descent from 1.1200 to 1.0500 exceeded expectations. Yet, as we repeatedly mentioned in 2024, the euro's rally was baseless, and the market had to realign the dollar's exchange rate. This correction is happening now without any specific macroeconomic or fundamental triggers.

As evidenced yesterday, the euro had no reason to rise, especially as it hit its lowest levels in six months or more. Nevertheless, the market continued selling the euro and buying the dollar. Thursday produced multiple trading signals. Initially, the price broke through the 1.0533 level and rebounded, presenting traders with short-selling opportunities. Later, the price broke below the 1.0485 level, paving the way for further declines today.

COT Report

The latest COT report, dated November 12, shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time. The last attempt by bears to gain dominance failed. However, a month ago, professional traders significantly increased their short positions, leading to the net position turning negative for the first time in a long period. This indicates that the euro is now being sold more frequently than bought.

We still see no fundamental reasons for strengthening the euro, and technical analysis suggests the price remains in a consolidation zone—essentially a flat trend. On the weekly timeframe, it's clear that since December 2022, the pair has traded between 1.0448 and 1.1274. The market has transitioned from a seven-month flat phase to a 22-month phase. Thus, further decline remains likely toward 1.0448, which is only a short distance away.

Over the last reporting week, the number of long positions among the non-commercial group increased by 100, while short positions decreased by 14,100, causing the net position to grow by 14,200. The euro's downside potential remains significant.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly chart, the pair continues to develop its downtrend. There's no need to elaborate on the macroeconomic or fundamental drivers for the dollar's medium-term decline—they don't exist. We anticipate only further declines in the euro in the medium term. Each passing day reinforces the belief that the market has fully priced in the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle, with no rush to cut rates further. The euro has little room for even minor upward corrections.

For November 22, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.0340-1.0366, 1.0485, 1.0581, 1.0658-1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.0717) and Kijun-sen (1.0537) lines. Remember that the Ichimoku indicator lines may shift throughout the day, so monitor them closely when interpreting trading signals. Also, set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves 15 pips in your favor to minimize potential losses in case of false signals.

November PMI data from the eurozone, Germany, and the US will be released on Friday. While these are not the most critical reports, they could provoke some market reactions. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment report, also of medium importance, will be published in the US.

Chart Explanations:

Support and resistance levels: thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour to the 1-hour timeframe. These are strong lines.

Extreme levels: thin red lines where the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.

Yellow lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts: The net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Hot Forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2024

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On Wednesday, representatives of the European Central Bank warned about the risks of a debt crisis in the eurozone. Yesterday, they shifted to assuring markets of further monetary policy easing by the central bank—of course, exclusively to prevent the development of a debt crisis. Unsurprisingly, such statements caused the euro to continue losing ground.

Today's economic calendar isn't as empty as in the past few days. However, if forecasts for business activity indices are confirmed, the course of events will again be shaped by representatives of the ECB. The expected rise in all business activity indices in the eurozone and the United States means these reports are unlikely to significantly influence market dynamics.

At the same time, ECB representatives have exhausted their talking points and have little left to surprise the market with. This situation suggests the pair might consolidate around current levels.

However, we must not overlook the dollar's overbought condition, which could support a slight rebound. Judging by current dynamics, this seems the most likely development.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Daily Price Movement of Ethereum Cryptocurrency, Friday November 22, 2024.

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Although on the daily chart, the Crypto currency appears to be in an uptrend, but the appearance of the Fractal Bar gives an indication that in the next few days there is a potential for a weakening price on Ethereum as long as there is no further strengthening that leads Ethereum to break and close above the level of 3559.47, then Ethereum will weaken where the level of 2951.88 will be tested to be broken and close below it. If successful, Ethereum has the potential to continue its weakening to the level of 2781.74 and 2574.72 as the next target if the momentum and volatility support it.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Solana Cryptocurrency, Friday November 22, 2024.

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From what we see on the 4-hour chart, the Solana cryptocurrency looks like that Buyers are still dominating, where this can be seen from the EMA 21 which is still above the EMA 34, especially after testing the Bullish Fair Value gap level which functions as a fairly good Support area level, giving Solana a strengthening momentum to rise where the 257.48 level will be tested and if this level is successfully broken and closes above it, it will provide a potential opportunity for strengthening of this cryptocurrency to the 282.68 level as its main target and if the momentum and volatility support it, 307.88 will be the next target to be targeted, but please note that the Stochastic Oscillator indicator is above the Overbought level and has now Crossed SELL, then there is a potential for a weakening correction to occur, but as long as it does not break and close below the 209.97 level, the strengthening of Solana will continue.

(Disclaimer)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of GBP/USD Pair for November 22, 2024: The Pound Gradually Slides Down

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The GBP/USD currency pair initiated a new wave of downward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. Over the past week, the trend has been mostly sideways, making it uncertain whether the pair will consolidate below the 1.2600 level. However, at the same time, we have a rebound from the moving average. It was clear and precise and could mark the starting point for another decline in the pound.

We expect a medium-term decline in the British pound, similar to the euro, driven by nearly identical reasons. This week confirmed that the market is unwilling to buy the pound even under favorable macroeconomic conditions. On Wednesday, the UK's inflation report showed stronger-than-expected growth, which could have supported the pound. However, the market largely ignored this data. This indicates that bullish factors hold little sway, with the market favoring the sale of an overbought and unjustifiably expensive pound, taking only brief pauses.

The pound has been declining for two consecutive months without any significant corrections. Earlier, it seemed that the Bank of England might slow the pound's fall by reducing rates more cautiously than the Federal Reserve. However, the Fed is nearing the end of its monetary easing cycle, spurred by Donald Trump's proposed trade wars, which could lead to higher tariffs and faster inflation. The Fed has effectively been preparing for these developments since the summer.

While the BoE may slow its rate cuts, what's the difference? The market has already priced in the Fed's easing for two years, and now it turns out that the Fed may not lower the rate as much as the market has already worked off. The market largely ignored the BoE's policy shift. The U.S. economy is also far stronger than the UK's, leaving little justification for the pound's potential growth.

Regardless of the fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop, we anticipate further declines for GBP/USD. While unexpected events such as new geopolitical conflicts, escalation of old ones, shocks in the stock and commodity markets, or economic crises could alter this trajectory, it is also impossible to say with certainty that the pound will fall for another year. However, the weekly timeframe suggests significant room for a downward movement. If the past two years' upward trend was merely a correction, the pound could eventually approach parity with the dollar in the coming years. While this seems implausible now, the pound's 16-year downward trend remains unbroken, where each new low falls below the previous one.

Over the last five trading days, GBP/USD has averaged 85 pips, a "moderate" level for this pair. The expected range for Friday, November 22, is between 1.2515 and 1.2685. The higher linear regression channel has turned downward, confirming the bearish trend. The CCI indicator has generated multiple bullish divergences and entered oversold territory several times, but no significant corrections have occurred.

Support Levels:

• S1: 1.2573

Resistance Levels:

• R1: 1.2634
• R2: 1.2695
• R3: 1.2756

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair maintains its downward trend. We do not recommend long positions, as the factors supporting the pound's rise have already been priced in multiple times. For those trading solely on technicals, long positions may be considered above the moving average, with targets at 1.2817 and 1.2878 if the price rises above the moving average line. Short positions remain more relevant now, with targets at 1.2573 and 1.2515, as long as the price remains below the moving average.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of EUR/USD Pair for November 22, 2024: The Euro Targets Further Decline

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The EUR/USD currency pair traded monotonously and uneventfully on Wednesday and Thursday. After reaching the Murray level "2/8" at 1.0498, the price neither corrected upward nor moved significantly, instead consolidating sideways. The euro couldn't even settle above the moving average, which remains very close to current price levels. This leads to the first conclusion: buyers are absent from the market.

This comes as no surprise, as we've been highlighting throughout the year a long list of reasons why the euro is overbought and should only decline against the dollar. Yes, the downtrend began later than expected, but market movements are notoriously difficult to predict, let alone their timing. It's important to understand that price movements depend primarily on market participants, particularly market makers, and no one can precisely predict when a new trend will begin.

The downtrend persists, with no signs of it ending anytime soon. This week, no notable events in the Eurozone or the US have left the price stagnant. However, the fact that the price remains static, even amidst an information lull, suggests it is merely waiting for the right moment to resume its decline.

Corrections are not always necessary for maintaining a trend. Yes, corrections should happen at least from time to time. However, let us remind you that significant movements on higher timeframes, such as a 1,000-pip decline, may appear as strong trends on the 4-hour chart but are routine movements on the weekly chart.

We expect the euro's decline to continue without a meaningful correction. Once the price overcomes the 5th level, the target of 1.0400 becomes more apparent. Since the beginning of the year, we have predicted a decline to the 1.02–1.04 range, possibly even reaching parity. On the weekly timeframe, a flat pattern remains, but breaking below the 4th level would confirm the end of the flat and signal a breakout from the lower boundary of the range. In such a scenario, a drop to 1.0000 could still be considered a positive outcome, with the price potentially targeting its last low near 0.9500.

The 5-day average volatility for EUR/USD as of November 22 is 81 pips, considered "moderate." For Friday, the pair is expected to move between 1.0405 and 1.0567. The higher regression channel is pointing downward, confirming the global downtrend. The CCI indicator has briefly entered the oversold area, signaling a possible correction, though this correction was weak and already completed. A new bullish divergence has formed, warning of another potential correction. However, the price has yet to rise above the moving average.

Support Levels:

• S1: 1.0498
• S2: 1.0376
• S3: 1.0254

Resistance Levels:

• R1: 1.0620
• R2: 1.0742
• R3: 1.0864

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, and we maintain a bearish outlook for the medium term. The market may have already priced in most of the anticipated Fed rate cuts, leaving little room for a sustained dollar decline. Short positions are recommended if the price remains below the moving average. Targets are 1.0405 and 1.0376. Long positions should only be considered if the price moves above the moving average, targeting 1.0665 and 1.0742. However, we currently do not recommend long positions to traders.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for EUR/USD on November 22, 2024

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Yesterday, the euro declined by 68 pips, reaching the target range of 1.0449–1.0483. This movement is sufficient to set the stage for a market correction after the decline since August 25, as convergence with the oscillator is now in place. The nearest corrective level at 23.6% aligns with the target level 1.0636.

At the same time, the target range of 1.0385–1.0418, formed by two price channel lines on the weekly chart, remains untested. If the price reaches the red line of the descending price channel, a reversal could occur from 1.0418, preserving the already-formed convergence.

Significant developments will likely take place next week.

On the four-hour chart, the overall trend remains bearish. Key signals come from target levels: Consolidation above 1.0483 could start a corrective consolidation, paving the way for further growth. A decline below 1.0449 would allow the price to test the stronger support at 1.0418. This action would also widen the expected consolidation range to approximately 1.0418–1.0490.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.