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EUR/USD Analysis on November 26, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure since July 1 has become significantly more complex and extended. In my view, the instrument is in the process of forming corrective wave 4, which has taken on an unconventional shape. Within this wave, we see only corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets stretch all the way to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e series of waves looks complete, and therefore I expect the formation of a new upward wave sequence in the coming weeks. We have already seen the presumed wave 1 or a, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 2 or b. I expected the second wave to end in the 38.2%–61.8% Fibonacci level relative to wave 1, but the quotes dropped as far as the 76.4% level. Such a decline still allows for the formation of wave 3 or c.

The EUR/USD exchange rate remained unchanged through Wednesday as the U.S. session began. After an active Tuesday, the trading range has again collapsed almost to zero—but we should not despair. Almost all major movements yesterday occurred during the U.S. session, which has always been the most active. Therefore, we are likely to see the same scenario today.

In the first half of the day, the market did not want to trade. Recently, it rarely wants to trade at all, but this morning neither Europe nor the UK produced a single noteworthy event. However, in the second half of the day at least two events will draw attention across all markets. First, the long-awaited UK budget for 2026 will finally be presented. Second, the U.S. durable goods orders report will be released. We will discuss the UK budget in the GBP review, and the U.S. report is as simple as it gets: a strong number boosts demand for the U.S. dollar; a weak one reduces demand.

What interests me now is not the two-hour movement caused by some news event, but the broader trend. At present, EUR/USD is again at a difficult crossroads: either the corrective wave structure becomes even more complicated, or we finally transition to forming the logical upward wave 5. And the longer the price stagnates in one place, the more the scales tip toward the first option.

Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues building an upward trend segment. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policy direction and the Federal Reserve remain strong factors for the future weakening of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment may stretch all the way to the 1.25 level. At this stage, the formation of an upward wave sequence may continue. I expect wave 3 (or wave c) to develop from current levels, with targets around 1.1740.

On the smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave count is not the most standard, since the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the senior wave 2 is smaller than the inner wave 2 of wave 3. But such situations do occur. Let me remind you that it's better to identify understandable structures on charts rather than trying to label every single wave. At this moment, the upward structure raises no doubts.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you are uncertain about market conditions, it is better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction does not exist. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for November 26-29, 2025: sell below $4,172 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around 4,171 within the uptrend channel, approaching a strong resistance zone. Below this level, we could expect a strong technical correction in the coming hours, with targets towards the bottom of the uptrend channel or towards the 21 SMA.

According to the H1 chart, gold is reaching overbought levels, so a technical correction is likely to occur in the coming hours. It means we could look for opportunities to plan short positions below 4,172.

The immediate support for gold is seen at 4,150 - 4,140. These levels could give it a technical rebound and could suggest an opportunity to resume buying with a target at the 7/8 Murray located at 4,218.

On the contrary, a sharp break below 4,140 and a consolidation below this zone could mean a change in trend and, in turn, a break in the uptrend channel. So, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA located at 4,098. The price could even reach the 6/8 Murray located at 4,062.

Given that gold is overbought, if there is an upward movement and the price reaches 4,190 or settles below 4,172, we could plan short positions for the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 26-29, 2025: buy above 1.1550 (200 EMA - 7/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1572 and below the 200 EMA, retreating after reaching the 7/8 Murray around 1.1596.

Since the beginning of this week, after reaching the psychological level of 1.1500, the euro made a technical rebound to reach 1.1596. A technical correction is expected towards the 21 SMA at 1.1537 in the coming hours. Otherwise, EUR/USD could even fall towards the bottom of the uptrend channel around 1.1510.

On the contrary, if the euro consolidates above the 200 EMA located at 1.1587 and above the 7/8 Murray, it could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions, with targets at the 8/8 Murray located at 1.1718.

The euro could continue its rise in the coming days and is likely to reach the gap left around 1.1740 last month. Once this gap is covered, we could expect a strong technical correction to occur.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback in EUR/USD while the price trades above 6/8 Murray will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on November 26, 2025

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In the GBP/USD pair, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment (bottom chart), but in recent weeks it has taken on a complex and extended form (top chart). The trend segment that began on July 1 can be considered wave 4—or any major corrective wave—since it has a corrective rather than impulsive internal wave structure. The same applies to its subwaves. Therefore, despite the prolonged decline of the pound, I believe the upward trend remains intact.

The downward wave structure that began on September 17 has formed a five-wave pattern a-b-c-d-e and may now be complete. If this is indeed the case, the pair is currently at the very beginning of forming a new upward set of waves.

Of course, any wave structure can become more complex at any time and extend further. Even the presumed wave 4, which has been forming for almost five months, may still evolve into a full five-wave structure, in which case we could see a continuation of the correction for several more months. However, at this moment, an upward set of waves may already be starting to form. If this assumption is correct, we have already seen its first wave, and the second wave may be nearing completion.

The GBP/USD exchange rate barely changed during Wednesday's session, but today the pound may be in for turbulence. In just a few hours, the budget for the 2026 fiscal year is expected to be released—and let me remind you that problems with drafting this budget have cost the pound heavily in recent months. Virtually every public appearance by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been accompanied by selling pressure on the pound in the currency market. Ms. Reeves, with a somber expression, has repeatedly stated that the government will be forced to raise several taxes because the budget "holes" cannot otherwise be patched. Naturally, she faced heavy criticism both from Parliament and British consumers, as the Labour Party promised not to raise taxes during the last election. But time passes, circumstances change, the money is gone, and therefore the British must follow in America's footsteps and willingly agree to contribute more to the budget.

To avoid the righteous anger of British voters in the next elections and retain at least some chance of victory, Labour has begun to come up with such creative tax-raising ideas that they evoke nothing but a smile. For example, Health Secretary Wes Streeting announced that all milkshakes containing sugar will now be taxed. The sugar tax has been in effect in the UK since 2018 as part of a nationwide campaign against obesity. As we see, in 2025 the British government is still dissatisfied with how much the average Brit weighs, and under the noble pretext of caring for public health, it is ready to force people to pay more for sweet drinks. Meanwhile, no one seems to be in a hurry to close McDonald's, and Coca-Cola is still sold without restrictions.

Conclusions

The wave picture for GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment, but its internal wave structure has become more complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e within wave 4 appears to be fully complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume with initial targets near the 1.38 and 1.40 levels. In the short term, we may see the development of wave 3 or wave c with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

The higher-level wave structure looks almost perfect, even though wave 4 went above the top of wave 1. However, let me remind you that perfect wave counts exist only in textbooks. In practice, things are much more complicated. At this time, I see no grounds for considering alternative scenarios to the upward trend segment.

My Key Analysis Principles:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often shift or transform.
2. If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out of it.
3. Absolute certainty about market direction does not exist and never will. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on November 26th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

A price test of 156.33 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

During the US trading session, attention will be focused on several important releases. The dynamics of initial jobless claims is a key indicator of labor market health. An increase in such claims may signal slowing economic activity and rising layoffs. Conversely, a decline in claims indicates a stable or expanding labor market, which is a positive sign for the economy. The volume of durable goods orders reflects companies' investment activity. Growth in this indicator suggests business confidence and readiness to invest in the future, as well as an expected increase in industrial production. The Chicago PMI index serves as a leading indicator of business activity in the Chicago manufacturing sector.

Traders will carefully analyze these indicators to assess the current state of the US economy. If the data is weak—especially labor market data—pressure on the USD/JPY pair could return quickly.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.55 (green line on the chart), targeting 157.06 (the thicker green line). Around 157.06, I will close long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point pullback). You can expect the pair to rise further if the bullish trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.33 twice in a row while MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 156.55 and 157.06 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 156.33 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 155.83, where I will close short positions and open long ones immediately (expecting a 20–25-point pullback). Selling pressure will return if the data is very weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.55 twice in a row while MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 156.33 and 155.83 can then be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – entry price for buy positions
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit or exit level (further growth above this level is unlikely)
• Thin red line – entry price for sell positions
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit or exit level (further decline below this level is unlikely)
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought/oversold zones

Important for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely careful when choosing entry points. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured trading plan—like the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing approach for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 26th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British Pound

A price test of 1.3183 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just begun moving down from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by more than 20 points.

Market expectations ahead of the budget release are always associated with elevated volatility. Traders evaluate the potential consequences of the announced measures for the economy, inflation, and, of course, the British pound. This time, the situation is complicated by uncertainty over how the UK Treasury plans to close the budget gaps created by very high government spending. The budget may include both stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic growth and austerity measures intended to curb inflation. The market's reaction will depend on the balance of these measures and how they are perceived in terms of the long-term sustainability of the UK economy.

During the US session, data on weekly initial jobless claims, changes in durable goods orders, and the Chicago PMI index are also expected. These indicators may influence investor expectations regarding the future path of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Weaker-than-expected labor market and manufacturing data could push the Fed toward a more dovish stance, while strong data may restore confidence in the economy's resilience and encourage more aggressive action by the regulator.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the price reaches the entry point around 1.3179 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.3235 (the thicker green line). Around 1.3235, I will close long positions and open short ones (expecting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction). Pound growth today is likely only after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just begun rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3154 twice in a row while MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3179 and 1.3235 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3154 (red line on the chart), which should trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3103, where I will close short positions and open long ones (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Selling pressure on the pound will return if the data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and has just begun declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3179 twice in a row while MACD is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3154 and 1.3103 can then be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – entry price for buy positions
• Thick green line – suggested Take Profit or manual exit level, as further growth above it is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for sell positions
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further decline below it is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought/oversold zones

Important for Beginners

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when choosing entry points. Before major economic releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden volatility. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear, structured trading plan—like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions made based on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on November 26th (US Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on the Euro

A price test of 1.1583 occurred at the moment when the MACD indicator had just started moving down from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair fell by only 15 points.

Due to a lack of economic indicators from the Eurozone, the euro's decline against the US dollar was minimal. Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, analyzing possible future directions of monetary policy by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.

During the US trading session, particular attention will be paid to the release of weekly initial jobless claims, changes in durable goods orders, and the Chicago PMI index.

These economic indicators are important signals reflecting the condition of the world's leading economy. The jobless claims data will allow traders to assess the current state of the US labor market. Durable goods orders are a key indicator of the manufacturing sector: rising orders suggest higher business investment and positive expectations for economic growth, which generally supports the dollar. The Chicago PMI reflects business activity in the Chicago region. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, whereas below 50 signals contraction. This indicator may influence investor sentiment and, consequently, the dollar's movement.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1585 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1611. At 1.1611, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Counting on euro growth today is only reasonable after weak US data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I will also buy the euro if the price tests 1.1565 twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth to 1.1585 and 1.1611 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1565 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1542, where I will exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point retracement). Pressure on the pair will return if statistics are strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below the zero line and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1585 twice while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A drop to 1.1565 and 1.1542 can then be expected.

Chart Guide

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – suggested level to place Take Profit or exit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further decline is unlikely below this point
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought/oversold zones

Important for Beginners

Forex beginners must be extremely cautious when choosing entry points. Before major fundamental announcements, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp volatility. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without them, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

Always remember: successful trading requires a clear, well-defined trading plan—just like the one presented above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – November 26th

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Due to a sharp drop in market volatility during the first half of the day, I did not trade at all through the Mean Reversion scenario. On the other hand, using the Momentum strategy, one could have worked well with the Japanese yen, which fell sharply against the US dollar.

In the absence of economic data from the Eurozone and the UK, the euro and the British pound slightly declined against the US dollar, losing bullish momentum. Investors adopted a wait-and-see approach, assessing the prospects for further policy actions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, while also awaiting the release of the UK budget for the next year.

During the US session, key data are expected on weekly initial jobless claims, changes in durable goods orders, and the Chicago PMI. These macroeconomic indicators are key measures of the largest economy in the world and can significantly influence currency pair dynamics. The release of jobless claims data will provide traders with fresh insight into the US labor market. A decrease in claims may indicate a strengthening labor market and, consequently, support the US dollar.

Changes in durable goods orders are an important barometer of manufacturing activity. An increase in orders signals higher corporate investment and optimistic economic prospects, which is usually positive for the dollar. Finally, the Chicago PMI is a regional indicator of business activity in Chicago and is often viewed as a precursor to the national ISM index. A reading above 50 points indicates expanding business activity, while a reading below 50 points signals contraction.

If the data is strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market does not react, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.1590 - target 1.1630 and 1.1665
• Sell on a breakout below 1.1565 - target 1.1530 and 1.1500

GBP/USD

• Buy on a breakout above 1.3180 - target 1.3215 and 1.3245
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3155 - target 1.3130 and 1.3105

USD/JPY

• Buy on a breakout above 156.60 - target 157.06 and 157.40
• Sell on a breakout below 156.23 - target 155.87 and 155.54

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback) for the Second Half of the Day:

EUR/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.1603 - pullback below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.1561 - pullback to this level

GBP/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.3198 - pullback below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.3154 - pullback to this level

AUD/USD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 0.6516 - pullback below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 0.6491 - pullback to this level

USD/CAD

• Sell after a failed breakout above 1.4095 - pullback below this level
• Buy after a failed breakout below 1.4062 - pullback to this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading slightly below the 1.3200 round level. Traders are anticipating that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, will present the autumn budget later in the day. It is expected that the Chancellor will announce new tax increases amounting to tens of billions of pounds. This budget will serve as a significant test of investor confidence in government bonds and for lawmakers supporting increased spending on social programs. A more responsible fiscal policy could strengthen long-term confidence in UK assets, which in turn would provide moderate support to the pound.

It has been just over a year since tax increases of £40 billion (approximately $52.7 billion) were introduced, marking the largest one-time increase since the 1990s. Against the backdrop of a likely deterioration in the UK economic outlook and rising debt servicing costs, Rachel Reeves is now compelled to take additional measures to increase revenue.

UK inflation fell to 3.6% in October, strengthening expectations of a Bank of England rate cut. Markets currently price in roughly an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, which has contributed to a decline in government bond yields ahead of the budget release.GBP/USD is also receiving support from a weakening US dollar. Weaker US economic data has intensified expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December, up from just over 50% a week ago.

From a technical perspective, a break above the 100-SMA on the 4-hour chart favors the bulls. However, for a full bullish confirmation, they need to overcome the 200-SMA. On the daily chart, oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, requiring caution for traders positioned for upward movement. Additionally, the 9-day EMA remains below the 14-day EMA, confirming short-term weakness among bulls. Resistance is at the 1.3200 round level, while support lies at the 14-day EMA near 1.3150. The next support is at the 1.3100 round level, with a stop at the 9-day EMA.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GOLD. Gold Prices May Resume Decline

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The prospect of peace regarding the Ukraine situation could significantly reduce geopolitical tensions worldwide. On this wave, the price of gold — which traditionally functions as a safe-haven asset — may resume falling. This decline may occur even despite the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, which is expected to pressure the US dollar through a 0.25% interest rate cut.

From a technical perspective, gold prices are still in a short-term uptrend and remain above the support level of 2150.50. A downward breakout of this level could lead to further declines.

Technical picture and trading idea:

The price is above the midline of the Bollinger Bands and above the SMA 5 and SMA 14, which confirm a downward tendency. The RSI is above the 50% level and moving horizontally. The Stochastic indicator is still rising.

A decline and consolidation of gold below the level of 2150.50 may trigger a drop toward 2045.00. A potential entry point for selling could be the level of 2136.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

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Today marks the second consecutive day in which USD/CHF continues its correction from the nearly three-week high located just above the 0.8100 round level. This decline is driven by the prevailing bearish sentiment toward the US dollar.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, set a new weekly low. This occurred after Tuesday's release of US economic data, which reinforced the Federal Reserve's "dovish" outlook. Specifically, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of slowing inflation, while September retail sales rose less than expected. In addition, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to a seven-month low due to concerns about labor market conditions, giving the Fed more room for additional monetary easing.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams stated last Friday that a possible rate cut in the near future would not jeopardize inflation targets. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that the labor market is weak enough to justify another 0.25% rate cut at the December meeting. Then, on Tuesday, Fed Board member Stephen Miran expressed support for a dovish stance in a televised interview, emphasizing the need for significant rate reductions due to deteriorating labor market and economic conditions in order to bring monetary policy to a neutral level.

Traders reacted quickly: there is now roughly an 85% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep its key interest rate at 0.00% for the foreseeable future, with analysts predicting no changes until 2027. This scenario strengthens expectations of further declines in USD/CHF in the short term. For better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data — specifically, jobless claims and new home sales. These releases may influence dollar dynamics.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, and the pair is trading above the 100-day SMA as well as the 9- and 14-period EMAs, confirming a bullish outlook. Resistance for USD/CHF lies at the 0.8100 round level, above which prices may attempt to challenge the November high near 0.8125.

The pair has found support at the 9-day EMA; below that, the next support is at the 100-day SMA, followed by the 0.8000 round level.

The table below shows how the US dollar has performed this week relative to major currencies. Among them, the dollar showed the most strength against the Canadian dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 26, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair formed a clear rebound from the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517, reversed in favor of the euro, and rose toward the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1594. A rebound from the 61.8% level will work in favor of the US dollar and lead to a new decline toward 1.1517. Consolidation above 1.1594 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous one, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish for now. The bulls have launched an offensive, but their efforts are still not enough to form a trend. To consider the bearish trend complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656.

On Tuesday, the US news background significantly helped the bullish traders, and the bulls finally did not miss their chance to attack. Three reports on the US economy were released yesterday, and two of them came in worse than expected. If the Producer Price Index can be considered conditionally neutral, retail sales volumes fell short of forecasts, and the ADP report showed a decline of 13.5 thousand jobs. Thus, the bulls had the opportunity to go on the offensive—and they did. In my view, the overall fundamental backdrop remains negative specifically for the dollar, as no disappointing news has recently come from the Eurozone. The ECB is not planning to cut interest rates, while the Federal Reserve is very likely (over 80%) to deliver its third monetary easing this year in December. Traders still have no new labor market data, so at the beginning of December, the dollar may face a new threat of a serious decline. If the labor market once again shows weakness, this will be an additional reason to sell the US dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after two bullish divergences formed on the CCI indicator. The pair consolidated above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538, allowing traders to count on continued growth toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. No new forming divergences are observed today on any indicator. A rebound from the 1.1649–1.1680 level will work in favor of the dollar and lead to some decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 3,377 long positions and 2,381 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the government shutdown, but the data is still outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, strengthened by economic and policy developments, and continues to grow over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255,000, while short positions number 137,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Political developments remain a major factor for traders, as they may lead to long-term structural challenges for the US economy. Despite the signing of several trade agreements, many key economic indicators are falling, and the dollar is losing its status as a "global reserve currency."

News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:

• USA – Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC)
• USA – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
• USA – Chicago PMI (14:45 UTC)

On November 26, the economic calendar contains three entries, but only one can be considered significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will appear in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair today will be possible after a rebound from the 1.1594 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1517. However, I expect new growth. Buying opportunities were available after the rebound from 1.1517 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1594. That target has been reached. New long positions may be opened after a close above 1.1594, with a target of 1.1645–1.1656.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 26, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3119–1.3139 and rose toward the resistance level of 1.3186–1.3214. A rebound of the quotes from this zone—and especially from the level of 1.3214—will work in favor of the US currency and lead to some decline toward the 1.3119–1.3139 level. Consolidation of the pair above the 1.3186–1.3214 level will increase the likelihood of further growth toward 1.3240 and 1.3294.

The wave situation remains entirely bearish. The last upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Unfortunately for the pound, the news background has deteriorated for it over the recent weeks, and now the bulls find it extremely difficult to launch attacks—which were weak even before. However, the bears are also beginning to retreat, since the US fundamental backdrop is also far from ideal. To complete the bearish trend, growth above the 1.3214 level is required.

Tuesday's news background provided strong support to the bulls, as two out of three US reports showed results much worse than traders expected. The bulls launched a sharp rally in the second half of the day but ran into graphical resistance at 1.3214. Thus, this level is now the key one. With positive fundamentals, it will be easier to overcome, but, for example, today the bulls can rely only on a weak report on durable goods orders. If this report fails to support them, GBP/USD may pull back toward the 1.3119–1.3139 level. I continue to expect the US dollar to decline, as a third round of FOMC monetary easing is anticipated in December. At the same time, the US labor market remains in poor condition, which may also put pressure on the dollar at the beginning of December.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel and above the 1.3118–1.3140 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3339 level, and the bulls may begin forming a trend. No potential divergences are observed today on any indicator. I remind you about the 1.3214 level on the hourly chart.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week, but this reporting week dates back a month and a half — October 7. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,871, while the number of short positions increased by 9,453. The gap between long and short positions is now essentially: 94 thousand vs. 98 thousand—almost perfectly balanced.

In my view, the pound still appears less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency is in demand on the market, but I believe this is only temporary. Donald Trump's policies caused a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, while the Bank of England may cut rates one more time, the FOMC could continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may offer no improvement.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

• USA – Durable Goods Orders (13:30 UTC)
• USA – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
• USA – Chicago PMI (14:45 UTC)

On November 26, the economic calendar contains three entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday will appear in the second half of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Sales of the pair are possible today during a rebound from the 1.3186–1.3214 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3119–1.3139. Purchases may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.3214, with targets at 1.3240 and 1.3294.

Fibonacci grids are plotted from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 26/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 26, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3161 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may possibly continue its upward movement toward 1.3232 — the historical resistance level (light blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3178 — the 23.6% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3161 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may possibly continue moving upward toward 1.3213 — the upper fractal (daily candle of November 25, 2025). Upon testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3178 — the 23.6% pullback level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 26, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, from the level of 1.1569 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.1608 — a historical support level (light blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward toward 1.1593 — the 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volume – downward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1569 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1593 — the 61.8% pullback level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may possibly roll back downward toward 1.1575 — the 23.6% pullback level (yellow dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The US Dollar Is in Trouble Again

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Yesterday the US dollar sharply slumped in pairs with several risk-sensitive assets following news that US consumers have shown signs of fatigue just before what could become the longest government shutdown, and their outlook has only deteriorated since.

According to data released on Tuesday, retail sales in September rose by only 0.2%. A more recent report from the Conference Board showed that consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in seven months, reflecting growing concerns about the labor market and the economy. The drop from 95.5 in October to 88.7 in November is also very significant and sensitive, which is negative for the dollar.

These data sparked a wave of concern among traders, who fear that a slowdown in consumer spending may signal a broader economic downturn. The dollar immediately reacted to the news, falling against major currencies such as the euro and the pound. Traders began revising their expectations for future Federal Reserve policy, suggesting that the central bank may continue cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth.

Weak retail sales and falling consumer sentiment have amplified worries about a slowdown in global economic growth.

"The consumption outlook, which has been a real driver of growth for the past several years, is now raising a lot of questions," said Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The fact that consumers are buying big-ticket items less frequently and looking for bargains speaks for itself. According to credit firm TransUnion, more than half of Americans expect to spend at least as much this holiday season as they did last year. However, this is likely partly due to rising prices, as some companies are having to reduce Black Friday discounts because of tariffs.

Meanwhile, policymakers remain divided on whether interest rates should be lowered, as they debate employment prospects while inflation continues to exceed target levels. Because of the government shutdown, they will not have key data for recent months in any of these areas until the meeting scheduled for mid-December this year.

As for the current EUR/USD technical picture, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1600 level. Only then will they be able to target a test of 1.1630. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1655, but doing so without support from major players will be quite challenging. The most distant target will be the 1.1675 high. In case of a decline in the instrument, I expect any serious action from major buyers only around 1.1575. If no one shows up there, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1550 low or to open long positions from 1.1520.

As for the current GBP/USD technical picture, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3211. Only this will allow them to target 1.3244, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The farthest target will be the 1.3275 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control of 1.3180. If they manage to do so, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD to the 1.3155 low with the prospect of reaching 1.3125.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Pound Rose Sharply, and Here's Why

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Yesterday the British pound posted a fairly large gain against the US dollar. The main reason for buying the pound was news that the UK would raise the minimum wage for workers aged 21 and over by as much as 4.1%. This is being done to help low-income earners.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced plans to raise the minimum wage to £12.71 per hour one day before the budget she has long anticipated. Reeves said that this decision, which will take effect in April next year, will help people who are barely making ends meet. Thus, the increase in the minimum wage next year will once again outpace inflation.

The increase in the minimum wage would certainly be a relief for millions of low-paid workers across the country. Many families experiencing financial difficulties will be able to breathe a little easier, knowing that their incomes will rise. However, it is important to remember that this is only one element of a broader economic picture. The business response to Reeves's announcement is likely to be mixed. Small businesses, especially in sectors with a high proportion of low-paid workers, may feel additional pressure on their financial resources. Larger corporations, on the other hand, are generally better prepared for such changes and may even see in them an opportunity to boost productivity by improving employee morale.

It is also important to consider potential consequences for inflation. Although the minimum wage increase is intended to help people cope with rising prices, it could also lead to further inflation if companies pass higher costs on to consumers — which they certainly will. This, in turn, could offset the benefits of the wage increase for some workers.

It is worth noting that the measure to raise the minimum wage was one of several included in the budget to address issues related to the cost of living. The Chancellor has already frozen rail fares and is expected to announce additional household cost-cutting measures on Wednesday, including reductions in electricity bills, as part of a budget package aimed at restoring the ruling Labour Party's relationship with voters and calming the markets.

The increase in the national living wage for workers aged 21 and over now amounts to £900 per year. Workers aged 18 to 20 will receive an even bigger raise in April — £1,500 per year — as their minimum wage will rise by 8.5% to £10.85 per hour.

According to Reeves, the wage increase, which follows the recommendations of the Low Pay Commission, will ensure "fair reward for the hard work of those on low incomes." It is worth noting that the UK has one of the highest minimum wage levels in Europe.

As for consumer price inflation, it slowed to 3.6% last month, which is far from the Bank of England's target level of 2%. The Bank forecasts a further decline to 2.9% by the second quarter of next year.

But considering Reeves's new measures, the situation could change quickly. As I noted above, the pound has already reacted by rising against the dollar, since such measures can affect the Bank of England's interest rate policy.

Regarding the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3211. Only this will allow them to aim for 1.3244, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The farthest target will be the 1.3275 level. If the pair falls, the bears will try to regain control of 1.3180. If they manage to do so, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD to the 1.3155 low with a prospect of reaching 1.3125.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market on edge: S&P 500 faces key level test

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How do you make the market happy? Take away its favorite toy and then give it back. For the S&P 500, this toy has been the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Following the release of the minutes from the October FOMC meeting, these expectations fell to 28%, prompting the broad stock index to undergo a correction. Rumors about Kevin Hassett's imminent appointment as the head of the central bank have spiked the chances of monetary expansion by the end of the year to 85%. It is no surprise that the stock market is up for the third day in a row.

Dynamics of Market Expectations Regarding Federal Reserve Monetary Expansion

The director of the National Economic Council will be as dovish as Stephen Miran. This duo will demand aggressive rate cuts from the FOMC. Such a scenario weakens the US dollar and leads to lower Treasury yields, creating a favorable tailwind for the S&P 500. The cost of borrowing for companies declines, while their overseas profits increase.

The belief in a federal funds rate cut is not only a favorite toy but also a safety cushion for the S&P 500. Its presence allows the stock market to overlook the fundamental overvaluation of tech companies. According to Reuters research, their share of the broad stock index has risen from 30% to 31.1% since the beginning of the year, while their contribution to profits has decreased from 22.8% to 20.8%. Given the oversized size of the sector in investment portfolios, fears about its inability to generate substantial income could trigger a wave of sell-offs. No one will be able to withstand that.

Nonetheless, expectations for aggressive monetary expansion by the Fed help to mitigate the negative sentiment. The stock market regains its safety cushion—the belief that the central bank will throw a lifeline if it starts to sink. Therefore, investors are shifting their focus to other topics. For instance, the battle of tech giants for the crown of the world.

Dynamics of Alphabet and NVIDIA Stocks

According to IG, the dominant position of the world's largest company is unlikely to be threatened. However, a major competitor is ready to take a serious bite out of Jensen Huang's empire. Shares of Alphabet are rising on rumors that Meta Platforms is prepared to spend billions of dollars on Google's AI chips.

Retail investors are gradually moving away from the rout. In November, their attempts to immediately buy the dip in the S&P 500 ended in failure. However, the recovery of the broad stock index will allow them to recoup losses. Interestingly, in 2025, purchases of American stocks by retail investors surged by 50%. This marks more than a twofold increase in activity compared to the average over the past five years.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 indicates that the moment of truth is approaching. The market is testing the key level of 6,770. A successful breakout of this level will contribute to a resumed upward trend and provide a basis for long positions. Conversely, a retreat will lead to resumed selling.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 156.20 coincided with the moment the MACD indicator just began its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by 20 pips.

Unfavorable macroeconomic data coming from the United States negatively impacts the American currency, weakening its role as a reliable safe-haven asset against the Japanese yen. Investors are concerned about a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth—especially given the Federal Reserve's cautious stance. External factors are also putting additional pressure on the dollar's exchange rate. In the short term, the dollar's trajectory against the yen will be determined by a range of factors, including upcoming economic indicators and central bank decisions. Traders and investors need to closely monitor these events to make informed decisions. In any case, the trend of yen weakness persists, and with new indicators to stimulate the Japanese economy from the new government, the USD/JPY pair is likely to resume its upward trajectory.

Regarding the intraday trading strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 156.33 (green line on the chart), with a target at 157.06 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 157.06 level, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.02 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 156.33 and 157.06 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.02 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.32 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.33 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 156.02 and 155.32 can be anticipated.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3139 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning its upward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound and resulting in a rise towards the target level of 1.3187.

The pound surged sharply on news that the UK will increase the minimum wage by 4.1%. Investors now assess the likelihood of the Bank of England maintaining interest rates unchanged in the coming months as quite high. However, opinions among experts are divided. Some argue that raising the minimum wage will undoubtedly increase inflationary pressures, as businesses will be forced to pass on higher labor costs to consumers, thereby raising prices. Others believe the impact will be limited, since the minimum wage increase will affect only a portion of the workforce and will have a minor effect on overall inflation. Nonetheless, the BoE is likely to take a cautious stance, closely monitoring developments and preparing to take measures to curb inflation.

Today, the contentious UK budget for the next financial year is expected to be presented. It is anticipated that the budget will provoke strong reactions from both political opponents and the general public. A key point of contention will be the proposed cuts to essential public services, such as healthcare and education, amid rising inflation and economic downturn. The government, in turn, will insist on the necessity of these measures to stabilize the economy and reduce public debt. The Autumn Treasury forecast, published simultaneously with the budget, will provide a more comprehensive picture of the UK's economic situation. Experts expect pessimistic assessments of growth rates, inflation, and unemployment levels. There will be particular attention on the inflation forecast, which many analysts believe will remain high over the next year, despite government measures.

Regarding the intraday trading strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when the entry point reaches around 1.3199 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3235 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3235, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction (anticipating a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting the pound to rise is feasible if the new upward trend continues. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3183 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.3199 and 1.3235 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3183 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3156 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers will likely emerge if difficulties arise regarding the budget. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3199 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.3183 and 1.3156 can be anticipated.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 26. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1547 occurred when the MACD indicator had already risen significantly from the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros. Selling at 1.1528 resulted in losses.

Weak macroeconomic data from the United States is obviously putting pressure on the dollar, undermining its position as an attractive safe-haven asset. Traders fear that the Federal Reserve's tight stance, coupled with the recent shutdown, might severely slow economic growth. However, despite current difficulties, the dollar should not be written off. The American economy remains one of the largest and most stable in the world. Additionally, the Fed possesses the necessary tools to support economic growth and stabilize the financial system.

Today, in the first half of the day, a financial stability report from the European Central Bank is expected, followed by a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde. The report is anticipated to analyze key risks threatening the financial systems of eurozone countries, including new risks of rising inflation, trade tariffs, and geopolitical instability. After the report's release, Lagarde's speech will be another significant opportunity to gain additional insights into the central bank's stance. She is expected to comment on the current state of the economy, inflation forecasts, and the ECB's plans regarding further adjustments to monetary policy. Markets will closely monitor any signs indicating the ECB's readiness for a more decisive tightening or, conversely, easing its course.

Regarding the intraday trading strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios №1 and №2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy euros today once the price reaches around 1.1600 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1632. At the 1.1632 level, I plan to exit the market and sell euros immediately, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expecting the euro to rise can only happen after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from there.

Scenario #2: I also intend to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1583 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1600 and 1.1632 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1583 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1554, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1600 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1583 and 1.1554 can be anticipated.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Cryptocurrency Trading on November 26

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Bitcoin remains afloat. Several desperate attempts to pressure Bitcoin yesterday were met with active buying around $86,300, keeping the chances of further upward correction of the trading instrument alive. Ethereum also attempted to bounce back to $3,000, but has not yet managed to break above this level.

Yesterday, it was reported that Texas became the first state in the US to start purchasing a spot Bitcoin ETF for its reserves. The first purchases took place on November 20, with the state investing $10 million. Texas is currently buying BTC through the BlackRock ETF IBIT but will eventually move towards self-custody of Bitcoin. This news was received positively within the cryptocurrency community and beyond. Many experts see this step as a sign of increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a whole. The Texas state investment, though relatively small compared to the state's total reserve volume, could serve as a precedent for other states and even countries.

One reason Texas chose Bitcoin may be its desire to diversify its reserves and protect against inflation. Bitcoin is often referred to as digital gold due to its limited supply and decentralized nature. In an unstable economic environment, Bitcoin can serve as insurance against the devaluation of traditional assets. Equally important is Texas's progressive legislation regarding cryptocurrencies. The state has long aimed to become a leader in digital assets, attracting crypto startups and creating favorable conditions for industry development. The purchase of a Bitcoin ETF is a logical continuation of this policy and could solidify Texas's position as a crypto hub.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which has not yet disappeared.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $88,000, targeting a growth to $89,000. Around $89,000, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can be considered from the lower boundary of $87,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $88,000 and $89,000.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $87,400, targeting a drop to $86,300. Around $86,300, I will exit the sell and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be considered from the upper boundary of $88,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $87,400 and $86,300.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,955, targeting a growth to $3,017. Around $3,017, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can be considered from the lower boundary of $2,924 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,955 and $3,017.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point around $2,924, targeting a drop to $2,866. Around $2,866, I will exit the sell and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can be considered from the upper boundary of $2,955 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to levels $2,924 and $2,866.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 26: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend gains

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.91%, while the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.67%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 1.43%.

Global indices continued their bullish run for the fourth consecutive day, as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut increased in light of weak consumer confidence data in the United States and the emergence of a central bank official supporting a proportionate rate reduction as a potential next Fed chair.

A rise in Asian stocks led to a 0.3% increase in the MSCI All Country World Index, reducing the index's losses after a sell-off to 1.3%. Treasury bonds generally maintained their upward trend compared to the previous session. Notably, the rise in prices was particularly evident in the technology sector, where investors, anticipating cheaper credit, eagerly invested in growth stocks. If the Fed indeed opts for further rate cuts, it could serve as a powerful catalyst for continued rallies in stock markets. However, some experts warn that an overly hasty rate reduction could trigger inflationary pressures. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook makes the market vulnerable to sudden corrections.

Yesterday's news that Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, emerged as a frontrunner for the Fed chair position contributed to bond growth. The dollar weakened against most currencies, with the New Zealand dollar strengthening by more than 1%. Gold, which typically benefits from interest rate cuts, rose by 0.9% to $4,166 per ounce.

The rally in global stocks resumed after concerns about the overvaluation of the AI sector prompted investors to sell stocks in early November, pushing them away from more risky market segments. Sentiment is now improving as lagging economic data indicates some slowing in the US economy, while more Federal Reserve officials signal support for interest rate cuts.

Ahead of the October monetary policy meeting, investors had deemed a rate cut in December to be inevitable. However, the odds sharply declined after a spike in hawkish sentiment. Traders now again view a rate cut as nearly inevitable.

Yesterday's data showing a sharp decline in consumer confidence in the US for November further underscores the need for economic support. It also indicates a decrease in consumer spending after several months of high growth.

Regarding other markets, oil prices stabilized after closing at their lowest level in a month amid signs of progress in achieving a peace agreement regarding Ukraine.

In terms of the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,801. This would help the index gain value and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,819. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,837, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,784. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,769 and open the way to $6,756.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 26

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The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro, the pound, and other risk assets yesterday, and there were specific reasons for this. A sharp drop in the US consumer confidence index and retail sales volume weighed on the US dollar. Traders noted signs of slowing US economic growth, undermining confidence in the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. Conversely, the European currency received support from German inflation data.

As for the pound, it surged against the dollar. Additional support for the GBP/USD pair came from news that the UK will increase the minimum wage by 4.1%. Traders viewed this as a sign of growing inflationary pressure in the future. However, some experts are concerned that the wage increase may put pressure on businesses, particularly small businesses, and lead to job cuts. Others argue that higher wages will boost productivity and stimulate innovation. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is likely to monitor the situation closely and assess the potential impact of this move on inflation. If inflation rises too quickly, the BoE may consider returning to interest rate hikes, which are already at a relatively high level.

Regarding today, the European Central Bank's financial stability report is expected in the first half of the day, along with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The report is anticipated to address key risks to the eurozone financial system, including the impacts of inflation, trade tariffs, and geopolitical tensions. Special attention will likely be paid to the resilience of the banking sector to potential shocks, as well as the state of the real estate market and corporate debt. Lagarde's speech, which will follow the report publication, will provide another important opportunity to gain insights into the regulator's stance.

As for the pound, the UK budget for the next financial year will be presented today. There is a tense anticipation in Whitehall, as analysts and business leaders closely watch for any hints regarding the government's political priorities and their potential impact on the economy. Key themes of the budget are expected to include support for growth, productivity enhancement, and addressing high inflation issues. However, the most crucial aspect is how the treasury will address the budget gaps that have emerged this year.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to employ a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly exceeds or falls short of economists' expectations, a Momentum strategy is the best approach.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 1.1605 could lead to an increase of the euro towards 1.1532 and 1.1565.
• Sell on a breakout at 1.1585 could lead to a decline of the euro towards 1.1565 and 1.1525.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 1.3210 could lead to a rise of the pound towards 1.3245 and 1.3277.
• Sell on a breakout at 1.3182 could lead to a decrease of the pound towards 1.3154 and 1.3132.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 156.23 could lead to a rise of the dollar towards 156.67 and 157.06.
• Sell on a breakout at 156.00 could lead to a decline of the dollar towards 155.80 and 155.54.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Short positions will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.1603 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.1561 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3212 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.3154 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 0.6522 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout above 0.6491 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Shorts will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.4095 on a return below this level.
• Longs will be sought after a failed breakout above 1.4054 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.