Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 10? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

.

Analysis of Trades on Tuesday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair showed no interesting movements on Tuesday, despite the presence of a fundamental and macroeconomic background. Yesterday, the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey gave a speech, and the U.S. released the JOLTs and ADP reports. We immediately warned that one should not expect much from U.S. reports, as they either relate to a period no longer relevant or reflect changes over just one week. In fact, the JOLTs reports provided the dollar with some support (as the number of job openings in September and October exceeded forecasts), but we essentially saw the same movements as in the previous few days. Regarding Andrew Bailey's speech, the BoE's head did not announce anything significant. As a result, the pair corrected for the fourth consecutive day within the upward trend, but it has not yet settled below the trend line. Therefore, upward movement may resume, especially with today's FOMC meeting.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Tuesday. Of course, all three left much to be desired. The signals themselves were fairly decent, but market movements remain very weak. First, the pair settled above the area of 1.3319-1.3331, then below this area, and finally, it bounced from it below. In each of the three cases, the price moved in the needed direction by no more than 20 pips.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a local upward trend. As we mentioned earlier, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth; thus, we expect movement only to the upside. The correction/flat on the daily timeframe may not yet be complete, but any local upward trend on the hourly timeframe could signal a resumption of the global trend. The FOMC meeting this week may help establish an upward trend.

On Wednesday, beginner traders may again anticipate the formation of trading signals in the 1.3319-1.3331 range. A settlement above this area will open new long positions with a target at 1.3413. A bounce from it will lead to short positions with a target of 1.3259-1.3267. However, it is important to remember that movements throughout the day may again be very weak, while in the evening, they could be strong and unpredictable.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done at levels 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Wednesday, no major events are scheduled in the UK, but the FOMC meeting results will be announced in the U.S. in the evening. Jerome Powell will give a speech, and the dot-plot will be released.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 10? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

.

Analysis of Trades on Tuesday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its sluggish, almost sideways downward movement on Tuesday. Market volatility has been weak in recent months, and over the last five days, movements have been virtually non-existent. This may be related to the upcoming FOMC meeting, as the market is reluctant to take on risk beforehand, unsure which monetary policy path the central bank will choose in the near term. Alternatively, it could simply be a result of the flat on the daily timeframe that has been ongoing for the sixth consecutive month. It is worth recalling that in September and October, there were no questions regarding monetary policy from the FOMC. Traders understood that the Federal Reserve would be forced to lower the key interest rate to support the labor market. However, during these two months, the US dollar reacted calmly to the easing of policy and even appreciated, which we still consider illogical. Therefore, this evening, we may also observe completely illogical movements. We would not be surprised if the dollar shows growth on a "dovish" FOMC decision this evening.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, one trading signal to sell was formed yesterday. This signal, in the form of a bounce from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, was created during the European trading session. As a result, the price moved down about 25 pips, allowing for a small profit on this signal. At present, however, expecting large profits is unrealistic given the minimal market volatility.

How to Trade on Wednesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend, although the price has overcome the trend line. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar; thus, we anticipate further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat on the daily timeframe persists, and after a reversal near the lower boundary, it is reasonable to expect a rise to the upper boundary.

On Wednesday, beginner traders can again trade from the area of 1.1655-1.1666, as the price has been near this level for five consecutive days. A price bounce from this area below will allow for short positions with a target of 1.1584-1.1591. A consolidation above it will signal a long position targeting 1.1745.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Wednesday, no interesting events or reports are scheduled in the EU, while the results of the last FOMC meeting of the year will be announced in the US.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Despite the potential for a limited correction, Silver still has a strengthening bias.

.

[Silver]

With both EMAs still in a Golden Cross formation, the trend for Silver likely remains upwards, despite the potential for a limited correction where it is confirmed by the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI(14).

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 62.853

2. Resistance. 1 : 61.737

3. Pivot : 59.658

4. Support. 1 : 58.542

5. Support. 2 : 56.463

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price breaks above 61.737, Silver will likely continue to strengthen up to 62.853.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 62.853 is broken, there is potential for Silver to test the level at 64.932.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Silver declines and breaks down below 56.463.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 59.706

EMA(200): 58.412

RSI(14) : 64.68 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda :

Tonight from the United States, the following economic data will be released:

US - Employment Cost Index q/q - 20:30 WIB

US - Crude Oil Inventories - 22:30 WIB

US - Federal FED Fund Rate - 02:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Platinum on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, still has a strengthening bias despite the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on

.

[Platinum]

Although the RSI(14) indicator is in the Neutral-Bearish level and a Bearish Divergence has appeared, both EMAs are still in a Golden Cross formation, which indicates that there is potential for a limited correction. However, the bias for Platinum remains strengthen.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 1754.0

2. Resistance. 1 : 1730.5

3. Pivot : 1687.5

4. Support. 1 : 1664.0

5. Support. 2 : 1621.0

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of #PLF strengthens and breaks above 1730.5, Platinum has the opportunity to test the level at 1754.0.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 1754.0 is broken, there is potential for the price to reach 1797.0 afterward.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Platinum declines below 1621.0.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 1684.5

EMA(200): 1667.9

RSI(14) : 47.28 + Bearish Divergence

Economic News Release Agenda :

Tonight from the United States, the following economic data will be released:

US - Employment Cost Index q/q - 20:30 WIB

US - Crude Oil Inventories - 22:30 WIB

US - Federal FED Fund Rate - 02:00 WIB

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Deal Analysis for GBP/USD on December 10. Pound at a Critical Point

.

Analysis of GBP/USD (5M)

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its sluggish decline on Tuesday, similar to its "older sister" – the EUR/USD pair. In general, the British pound's positions currently appear more convincing than those of the European currency, and the technical picture is clearer. The British currency continues to trade above the trendline and the Kijun-sen line. Therefore, the upward trend is undoubtedly maintained. Of course, this evening it could easily turn into a downward trend if the market considers the results of the FOMC meeting to be "hawkish." It is difficult for us to say how a decrease in the key interest rate and the unconditionally "dovish" prospects for 2026 can be interpreted in a "hawkish" manner, but we remind you that the last two rounds of monetary policy easing by the FOMC have provoked... a strengthening of the US dollar. Therefore, anything is possible this evening.

On a technical level, we continue to consider the euro and the pound in tandem. On the daily timeframe, the European currency remains flat, suggesting the pound is unlikely to slide much further. The European currency has entered a new phase of growth within the sideways channel, suggesting the British pound could also continue its upward movement. In any case, it is not sensible to speak of a downward trend on the hourly timeframe until a settlement below the trend line and critical line occurs.

On the 5-minute timeframe, yesterday, signals formed similarly to those of the EUR/USD pair. The price settled below the level of 1.3307 during the U.S. trading session, but was it worth opening short positions when the critical line was located 30 pips lower?

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that in recent years, the mood of commercial traders has been constantly changing. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and are mostly close to the zero mark. Right now, they are at practically the same level, indicating a roughly equal number of long and short positions.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The FOMC will, in any case, lower the rate in the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will inevitably fall. According to the latest COT report (dated October 28) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 BUY contracts and 10,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,500 contracts over the week. However, this data is now outdated, and no fresh data is available.

In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be understood that the reason is one: Donald Trump's policies. As soon as this reason is neutralized, the dollar may begin to appreciate, but no one knows when this will happen. It does not matter how rapidly the net position on the pound is growing or falling (if it is falling). For the dollar, it is declining in any case, and typically at a higher pace.

Analysis of GBP/USD (1H)

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. We believe that medium-term growth will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, and that the correction on the daily timeframe will eventually conclude. Or has already concluded. However, in December, much will depend on US labor market data, unemployment, and inflation, which will determine the next vector of FOMC monetary policy.

For December 10, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B (1.3231) and Kijun-sen (1.3279) lines may also be sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to break-even when the price moves in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Wednesday, no interesting events or reports are scheduled in the UK, so all market attention will be focused on the evening FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell's speech, and the publication of the dot-plot economic projection graph. The dot-plot graph reflects the expectations of Monetary Committee members regarding interest rates for the next two years. Thus, this graph demonstrates changes in the FOMC's sentiment.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price settles below the Kijun-sen line again, targeting 1.3231. Long positions will become relevant if there is a bounce from the trend line or Kijun-sen line, targeting 1.3369-1.3377.

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Indicates strong levels when applied to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Deal Analysis for EUR/USD on December 10. Dollar Calm Before FOMC Meeting

.

Analysis of EUR/USD (5M)

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its movement on Tuesday, which might only provoke a nervous tic in most traders. For the fifth consecutive day, the quotes of the European currency slid down at a pace not even a pregnant turtle would envy. Over the full five trading days, the pair fell 44 pips, while the average volatility during this period was 49 pips. Thus, we continue to note the obvious fact – market movements are virtually non-existent.

Yesterday, even relatively important reports like ADP and JOLTs did not help. We warned that the data on job openings has long been outdated and that the ADP report is now published not once a month but weekly, which sharply reduces its already low significance. As a result, yesterday, traders paid no attention to either ADP or JOLTs. To be precise, the market's reaction to these three reports (JOLTs was published two months late) amounted to a 20-pip move. Due to the fact that the number of job openings exceeded forecasts, the US dollar appreciated by 20 pips, which it successfully lost over the next half hour.

Regarding trading signals, it again made no sense to consider them yesterday. The price during the European session perfectly bounced off the level of 1.1657, but what was the sense in opening a short position when 20 pips lower was the Kijun-sen line? The price settled below the Kijun-sen line, but what was the point of opening a short position when the support area of 1.1604-1.1615 lay 20 pips lower?

COT Report

The latest COT report was released last week and is dated October 28. Thus, it is, to put it mildly, outdated. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time; bears struggled to enter their zone of superiority at the end of 2024, but quickly lost it. Since Trump took office as President of the United States for a second time, only the dollar has been falling. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current developments around the world suggest it is likely.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency, while there are enough factors for the decline of the American one. The global downward trend persists, but what significance does it have now where the price moved in the past 17 years? The dollar could appreciate if the global fundamental picture changes, but so far, there are no signs of that.

The positioning of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate a maintained "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions for the "Non-commercial" group increased by 5,900, while the number of shorts increased by 10,300. Accordingly, the net position decreased by 4,400 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated and holds no importance.

Analysis of EUR/USD (1H)

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair may have completed another upward trend, but we would not draw such conclusions, given the nature of the pair's movement in recent months, until it settles below the Senkou Span B line. The price remains within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe; therefore, a further strengthening of the euro to 1.1800 can still be expected in the near future. The growth of the European currency is extremely weak, but movements within the flat are always weak and chaotic.

For December 10, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1597) and Kijun-sen (1.1649). The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a stop-loss order at break-even if the price has moved in the right direction by 15 pips. This will protect against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Wednesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak in the European Union, and in the US, a key event of the current week will take place – the FOMC meeting. The decision on the key rate seems to have already been made, but in addition to the rate, the "dot-plot" schedule will be published, and Jerome Powell will give a speech. A sharp increase in volatility can be expected in the evening.

Trading Recommendations:

On Wednesday, traders may again trade from the area of 1.1604-1.1615. However, above this area lies the Kijun-sen line, and below – the Senkou Span B. We would advise waiting for signals to form when the target is not 20 pips away. Additionally, the FOMC meeting in the evening may provoke moves in either direction, which should be kept in mind.

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Indicates strong levels when applied to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Ends the Year, Avoiding a New Collapse

.

The Fed at a Crossroads

The market is formally preparing for the standard scenario. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 0.25%, and the rhetoric will shift to a moderately dovish stance looking ahead to 2026. While tariffs have a moderate impact on inflation, the employment segment is losing momentum much faster. The hiring rate is slowing, layoffs are not increasing, and unemployment is rising. Logically, a weak labor market pushes the central bank toward further easing.

But the real intrigue lies elsewhere. The situation with the repo system and the reduction of bank reserves heightened money market volatility in November. Authorities face the risk of a temporary liquidity failure. To stabilize the situation, the Fed will almost certainly announce a program to purchase short-term securities with a potential volume of around $40 billion monthly starting in January. This effectively represents a soft form of quantitative easing (QE), albeit disguised as technical balancing.

Kevin Hassett & Jerome Powell

There is also a political factor that the market seems to underestimate. The appointment of Kevin Hassett as the future head of the Fed will change the trajectory of expectations even now. Formally, Jerome Powell will be at the helm for three more meetings, but investors will closely monitor signals from the prospective new head of the U.S. central bank. He is known as an advocate for loose policy, and his position is closely tied to the White House. This implies an increase in the risk premium on long-term rates, particularly given the ongoing inflationary pressures. Essentially, with his arrival, a gradual political rethinking of the monetary policy direction will begin, especially as we approach the midterm elections in 2026.

This will be a key factor for all classes of risk assets. The bond market faces an additional challenge. Over the next four months, the U.S. Treasury must issue around $0.5 trillion in new bonds. Therefore, even if the rate decision tomorrow brings no surprises, the strategic implications of the meeting appear more serious:

• Launching a QE-like program of $40 billion.
• Shifting expectations from Powell to Hassett.
• Increasing risks in long-term bonds (similar to European and British markets).

The Fed Remains Without Guidelines

The December FOMC meeting is becoming one of the most atypical in recent years. The central bank is approaching the final decision of the year essentially without key macroeconomic benchmarks. The six-week pause in federal government activity has blocked the publication of employment and inflation reports. As a result, the December 10 meeting takes place without official data since September, sharply increasing uncertainty and complicating the assessment of the current cycle.

The Fed is forced to rely on private sources. The latest ADP report showed a 32,000-job reduction. If this signal reflects real processes in the labor market, the central bank needs to accelerate its rate cuts to prevent a recession. However, if the data is distorted, premature easing will create inflation risks. For example, the weekly report, which ADP started publishing in the absence of NonFarm Payrolls, showed an increase in hiring. This asymmetry forces the Fed to act carefully. The JOLTs labor market report also shows structural shifts.

The number of voluntary resignations has fallen to 2.94 million — the lowest level since 2020. This reduction affected sectors such as accommodation and food services, healthcare and social assistance, and federal government jobs. Meanwhile, layoffs rose in the entertainment, arts, and media sectors. The proportion of workers leaving voluntarily has dropped to 1.8%, reflecting employees' weakened confidence in the labor market's stability.

The vacancy situation appears more stable. In October, the number of job openings increased to 7.67 million with moderate positive dynamics in retail, transportation, and utilities. On the other hand, parts of professional services have seen a decrease in demand for personnel. The overall configuration of the market indicates gradual cooling rather than a sharp decline.

This gap between private and official indicators makes the rate decision extremely challenging. The Fed currently faces a high risk of error on both sides: from excessive tightening to excessive easing. The absence of official data on inflation and employment since September has put the Fed in a situation where its two key tasks—price stability and maximum employment—are in direct conflict:

• The labor market is showing alarming signs, with the unemployment rate at 4.4%. This context suggests an urgent need to lower rates to mitigate the risk of a potential hard landing for the economy.
• However, inflationary pressure persists. The Fed's preferred inflation index is recorded at 2.8%. This is nearly a whole percentage point above the target benchmark. Lowering rates now could exacerbate inflation dynamics, especially considering budget expansion and the impact of trade tariffs.

In the absence of fresh data, the December meeting becomes a balancing act between opposing risks.

Doves Fear a Recession, Hawks Fear Losing Control of Inflation

And a consensus does not imply unity. Despite the complex backdrop, the market almost unanimously prices in a 0.25% rate cut. This step is seen as limited insurance: it reduces the risk of a sharp deterioration in employment but does not change the parameters of the fight against high inflation. However, internal divisions within the Committee may become significant. Analysts expect more "against" votes. Such a result would be perceived as a signal of weakening Powell's influence and growing fragmentation within the FOMC, complicating the formation of expectations for 2026.

The "Dot Plot" as a Battlefield for Strategies

The intrigue of the meeting lies not only in the scale of the current rate cut. The market is focused on the dot plot update, which shows policymakers' individual forecasts for the path of the federal funds rate in 2026. Currently, the market expects four rate cuts next year. This suggests support for assets and creates a bullish scenario for the stock market. However, the more stringent option appears to be more likely. If the median dot reflects only two rate cuts in 2026, this would signify hawkish easing:

• Reduction in December
• Plus a signal of nearly complete exhaustion of the easing cycle

"Powell Put" vs. "Trump Call"

The upcoming Fed decision takes on significant political dimensions. President Trump openly supports rate cuts as a tool to counter potential inflationary effects of his tariff policy. Against this backdrop, the Fed Chair must maintain an image of independence and avoid politically motivated decisions. Thus, overly aggressive easing may be interpreted as an attempt to support a future administration or yield to external pressure. Maintaining a tough stance, on the contrary, would risk accusations of hindering economic transition.

Amid these expectations for the Fed's decision, attention has turned to Trump's comments made in an interview with Politico. He noted that he might adjust specific tariffs to lower consumer prices and claims that he has already made such adjustments in several categories. "Prices are all falling. Everything is declining," said the U.S. President, adding uncertainty to the assessment of future inflation dynamics.

Currency Markets

The current configuration indicates a moderate risk appetite, but it has not yet led to the formation of directional positions. Ahead of the Fed meeting, market participants are avoiding significant decisions. The rate statement and the press conference on Wednesday will be key sources of signals regarding the future course of U.S. monetary policy. Powell's comments and responses to questions could provide deeper insight into the Fed's leadership stance. The market will also receive updates on economic forecasts and the dot plot, which reflect the outlook for the economy next year.

Furthermore, this meeting will be the last for the current voting members. New representatives from Cleveland, Minneapolis, Dallas, and Philadelphia will replace those from Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City. The situation is further complicated by active discussions about replacing Powell. All of this creates tension among investors, and therefore, a lack of positivity in the currency and bond markets has been observed recently. Moreover, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warns that the start of the Santa Claus rally may be at risk. Although a rate cut would support stocks on Wall Street, investors are counting on a comprehensive set of factors:

• Soft inflation
• A stable economy
• Adjustments in monetary policy

Hartnett believes this combination is risky. A rate cut under a soft stance from the Fed could heighten concerns, leading to increased yields and pressure on stocks. Therefore, attention to Powell's comments and FOMC forecasts is escalating. The bond market also remains tense. The yield on 10-year securities continued to rise, ending one of the weakest weeks in recent months. (Chart 2) Inflation slowed down on Friday, confirming expectations for a rate cut. However, the level of the indicator remains above the target. This casts doubt on the scale of adjustments in 2026. The situation appears excessively active. Even if Hassett takes the helm at the Fed, market participants doubt he will be able to deliver on Trump's ambitions for a rapid cycle of rate cuts.

Kevin Hassett stated that the Federal Reserve has room for a deeper rate cut. He emphasized that upon his appointment as Chairman, he will rely on his own economic judgment, which he claims the President supports. According to Hassett, the evolution of artificial intelligence creates new conditions for monetary policy. A rate cut could expand the aggregate supply and boost demand. During the Wall Street Journal summit, he was asked whether he would support an adjustment exceeding 25 basis points if the data indicated such a possibility. Hassett affirmed that he sees room for such a decision.

This has heightened concerns regarding his dependence on Donald Trump's directives. Moreover, Trump previously stated that rapid changes in borrowing costs would be a criterion for selecting the Fed chief. Hassett stressed that he intends to adhere to his own assessments and dismissed accusations of political dependence. He noted that developing a detailed rate plan six months ahead would be irresponsible. He has previously criticized the Fed for its actions over the past years, considering them politicized. UBS analyst Jonathan Pingle reminded that disagreements over monetary policy are inevitable, and the Chairman's task is to rely on data and explain decisions.

Hassett reported having a good working relationship with Powell. Their contacts remain regular, as in his time working on the Council of Economic Advisers. The new Fed Chairman, appointed by Trump, will take a position on the Board of Governors in January, following the departure of Stephen Miran. In the initial months, he will work under Powell's leadership until his term ends. Hassett believes that, given the anticipated increase in productivity and investments, the potential growth rate of U.S. GDP could be "much higher" than 3%, possibly even exceeding 4%. "There are many opportunities to do something like lowering the interest rate, which will increase the aggregate supply and aggregate demand," he said.

The U.S. Dollar

December is traditionally unfavorable for the dollar; however, in the medium term, the divergence in monetary regimes is more important. The Fed is preparing to lower rates, reflecting a slowing economy. The dollar's yield advantage is diminishing compared to the euro and yen. Uncertainty surrounding the future Fed chair, whom the market sees as more dovish, heightens expectations for a prolonged period of low rates. This situation is driving the EUR/USD pair toward the 1.15 level. There is also an alternative scenario.

If the Fed's dot plot indicates a pause and caution, the yield on 2-year Treasury securities may rise. Such a reaction would create short-term pressure on dollar sellers and could trigger a sharp increase in its index. An additional factor is the gap in growth rates. If the U.S. economy maintains a growth rate of around 2% while the Eurozone remains in stagnation, the concept of "American exceptionalism" will continue to support the dollar and limit its correction. Concurrently, the global currency market continues to sell dollars.

According to a survey, nearly 60% of central bank representatives plan to increase the share of assets outside the U.S. dollar. This means they are seeking ways to redistribute reserves and reduce their dollar holdings. However, the greenback's current high liquidity continues to give it an advantage. Meanwhile, the euro is not yet ready to claim the role of a key benchmark. Doubts about the dollar's status this year have intensified due to:

• Tariff initiatives from the Trump administration
• Concerns regarding the independence of the Fed

Against this backdrop, some market participants expect a gradual strengthening of positions for the euro and the yuan. However, according to specialists' assessments, the dollar will maintain its central place in the structure of international reserves in the coming years.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. December 10. Technicals, Long-Term Outlook, and the Fed Meeting

.

The GBP/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Tuesday. During the U.S. trading session, there was a brief surge in activity, but it had little lasting impact. What could it have influenced when the most important events of the day were the JOLTS and ADP reports? The "headlines" of these reports may be loud, but what do they really represent? The ADP report has recently been published weekly, perhaps to somewhat fill the gaps created by the "shutdown." The shutdown ended a month and a half ago, yet relevant macroeconomic data is still lacking.

Clearly, the weekly ADP report is akin to weekly unemployment data—markets pay virtually no attention to it, as there are monthly figures like Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rates. Those data will be released next week and may cause market volatility. The JOLTs report was published for September and October. Who cares about data that is three months old?

In recent weeks, the British pound has appreciated by 300 pips and is now testing the Senkou Span B line on the daily timeframe, which we previously discussed. Once again, we need to refer to the 24-hour chart, as it currently provides the most comprehensive view of the market situation. On the daily timeframe, we see a strong upward trend and a prolonged correction, during which the dollar has recovered 45%. For now, we will not discuss the reasons behind the strengthening of the U.S. currency; let's just say there were a few, and we still consider the dollar's rise illogical.

The GBP/USD pair now faces a dilemma: should it embark on a new long-term correction and dampen traders' spirits for another couple of months, or should it resume the upward trend, which is fully justified by the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop? If the pair confidently breaks above the 1.3364 level (the Senkou Span B line), we can discuss the resumption of the upward trend.

Wednesday's session could be a good day for the pound to soar, regardless of the decision made by the Federal Reserve and the rhetoric expressed by Jerome Powell. Recall how many times the Fed's decision pointed one way while the price moved in the opposite direction? The last two Fed meetings concluded with a "dovish" decision, yet the dollar remained steady for two months. Therefore, traders might be in for another surprise today. We do not know which course Jerome Powell and his colleagues will take in the coming months. Most likely, there will be no course, as key macroeconomic data on labor markets, unemployment, and inflation remain unavailable. However, the market reaction could be entirely unpredictable. To be more precise, it may not correspond to the information received. The following day, many experts will once again be frantically trying to come up with explanations for what they observed on Wednesday evening and Thursday night. We continue to prepare for the appreciation of the British currency.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days as of December 10 is 74 pips, which is considered "average" for this pair. We expect the pair to trade within the range of 1.3233-1.3381 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed downwards, but this is only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times over the past months and has formed several "bullish" divergences, constantly signaling a potential resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator "visited" the overbought area, implying a possible downward correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3306
• S2 – 1.3245
• S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3367
• R2 – 1.3428
• R3 – 1.3489

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is attempting to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects have not changed. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the U.S. currency to appreciate. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3428 and 1.3489 remain relevant for the near future while the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.3233 and 1.3184, based solely on technical grounds. Occasionally, the U.S. currency shows corrections (in the global context), but it will require signs of the end of the trade war or other global positive factors for a trend to strengthen.

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Strong lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. December 10. Clouds Gather Over the Dollar

.

The EUR/USD currency pair continued trading on Tuesday in a manner that has become familiar over the past few months: weak, "choppy" movements with constantly changing directions, resulting in either "rollercoaster" patterns or a complete flat on the higher timeframes. Many traders are becoming frustrated with this situation in the currency market. For long-term investors, it may be feasible to buy and forget or sell and forget. However, most traders enter the forex market to generate profits here and now, not a year from now. How can one profit if the most popular and traded currency pair, EUR/USD, has been stuck in a total flat for six consecutive months?

Yes, this flat is formed on the daily timeframe, so there are some movements on the lower charts. But look at the illustration below. The average volatility over the last 5 and 30 trading days is not just low—it continues to decline. If we consider 50 pips a day, that equates to only 20-30 pips of profit per trade at best. And this assumes the trading signal was not false (which happens fairly often) and that the price underwent at least some oscillations of rises and falls during the day. After all, 50 pips of volatility can manifest in different ways. In the first scenario, the price rises and falls five times by 50 pips each. Volatility = 50 pips. But in this scenario, traders could open multiple trades. In the second scenario, the price moves in one direction throughout the day, totaling 50 pips. In this case, traders could have opened a maximum of one trade. Currently, we observe the latter scenario on the lower timeframes.

Therefore, we continue to emphasize every day that the key issue in today's currency market is the flat on the daily timeframe. As long as the price remains within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830, we will not see any significant movements. Analysts write daily about "pressure on the dollar," "unfavorable reports," "strengthening of the European currency," or the "Fed meeting." But, in essence, there are no movements in the market. So what difference does it make whether reports come out in the U.S. or the EU, or what decision any central bank makes? Trading can currently only be done with a long-term perspective, or "scalping" on the minute charts.

The U.S. dollar against the euro still cannot appreciate in the literal sense of the word. The movement observed over the past five months has been flat. It is clear that there are specific price fluctuations within this channel. But look at the daily chart! Can anyone say that the dollar has strengthened over the past six months? No. Therefore, we state that almost all global factors are sharply against the U.S. currency, and 2026 may be even worse for the dollar than 2025. The Federal Reserve will continue its monetary policy easing, while the European Central Bank completed its easing back in the summer. In 2026, the ECB will face the dilemma of whether to raise the key interest rate several times, which would be the final nail in the coffin for the U.S. currency.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of December 10 is 49 pips and is characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1587 and 1.1685 on Wednesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is pointing downward, signaling a bearish trend, yet a flat continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice in October (!!!), which could provoke a new wave of upward trends in 2025.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.1627

S2 – 1.1597

S3 – 1.1566

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.1658

R2 – 1.1688

R3 – 1.1719

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is above the moving average line, but the upward trend is maintained across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for several months. The global fundamental backdrop remains crucial for the market. Recently, the dollar has often shown growth, but only within the confines of the sideways channel. There is no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.1597 and 1.1587, based solely on technical grounds. Above the moving average, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1800 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe).

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Strong lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

ECB Will Raise Interest Rates in 2026

.

In the previous review, we discussed the reasons that could trigger a new dollar collapse in the second half of 2025. I recommend reviewing that analysis. In this overview, we will take a closer look at the European Central Bank's monetary policy.

The ECB completed its monetary policy easing process last summer, conducting a total of 8 rounds of 25 basis points each. Inflation has been successfully "calmed" and brought back to the target mark of 2%. Therefore, the ECB has justifiably stopped lowering interest rates. It is worth noting that the lower the central bank's rates are, the lower the cost of borrowing becomes, and consequently, the lower the yield on bank deposits and government bonds—the instruments considered the safest in the investment world.

As yields fall and loan costs decrease, more investors take out loans, while fewer invest their capital in bonds and deposits. Consequently, the demand for the currency of such a country declines, as safer investments in other countries offer higher yields. This is how the mechanism works. However, 2025 has shown that this is not always the case.

While the ECB was actively easing monetary policy, the euro was in demand in the market. It is undeniable that this demand was not driven by the ECB's easing policy but rather by the dollar's decline amid Donald Trump's trade war. Therefore, I consider the strengthening of the euro in the first half of 2025 to be entirely justified. However, in the second half of the year, as the ECB completed its easing cycle and the Federal Reserve resumed its own, we should have seen what? The dollar is becoming even less attractive to investors, and the euro is ceasing to lose demand, which it did not lose throughout the year.

In 2026, the ECB may shift toward tightening its monetary policy. Increasing confidence in this scenario is growing among participants across various markets. The consensus opinion now leans toward a 0.1% rate increase. However, it is unlikely that the ECB will raise rates by 0.1%. Most likely, it will be 0.25%. If inflation in the Eurozone accelerates, there may be multiple rounds of tightening. Additionally, it is worth noting that one of the ECB's executives, Isabel Schnabel, has indicated that she views the market forecasts for interest rate increases positively. This means that the ECB itself admits this scenario is possible.

In summary, we have the prospect of the Fed lowering rates in 2026, while there is a high likelihood of the ECB raising its rates.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend section. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current trend section could reach the 25-figure mark. However, the last upward section of the trend has taken on a corrective appearance again; therefore, we may now see the beginning of a minimum downward wave of this section, with the maximum being a new downward corrective wave.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. However, wave 4 itself may take on a five-wave form.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, but the current wave set will likely remain corrective. Therefore, a decline at the beginning of next week is also possible, and the attempt to break the 1.3360 mark was unsuccessful.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Ends the Year, Avoiding a New Collapse

.

The American currency has successfully avoided its worst-case scenario for five consecutive months. Personally, I do not fully understand why the market is hesitating with new dollar sell-offs when the news picture is as clear as day. However, it is not my place to tell the market what to do; I can only analyze what is happening. My conclusions over the past months, despite the lack of anticipated growth in EUR/USD and GBP/USD instruments, have not changed. I do not believe my conclusions are erroneous because, apart from the growth of these instruments, we do not see any significant declines either. Predicting when the next sideways movement in the market will occur is impossible.

As 2025 draws to a close, it's time to begin summarizing some results. If the current year finishes on a similar note to the last five months, then we can only look forward to 2026. What awaits the dollar in 2026? In my opinion, the sell-offs of the American currency will resume with almost no alternative scenarios. The only question is when. In the second half of the current year, the U.S. dollar accumulated a whole list of news factors that point to its decline. Questions about the American currency began to arise in September, when the Fed resumed its monetary easing cycle, prompting a rise in demand for the dollar.

October began with Donald Trump raising tariffs on imports of trucks, pharmaceuticals, and even furniture. Isn't this a new escalation of the global trade war? Yet the dollar continued to appreciate. Soon after, news broke about increased tariffs for India and renewed pressure on China, as the U.S. president decided to accuse these countries of financing the war in Ukraine and demanded a halt to purchases of Russian energy supplies. Another escalation.

Starting October 1, the longest "shutdown" in U.S. history began, lasting 43 days, or nearly a month and a half. For these six weeks, demand for the U.S. currency continued to rise. I cannot say that the dollar executed a blitzkrieg and significantly improved its position after the first half of 2025, but it still managed to gain strength. At the end of October, the Fed lowered interest rates for the second time, which further strengthened the American currency.

Based on all of the above, the dollar has ample reasons to lose another 10% of its value against the euro and the pound throughout 2026. In this overview, I have only considered existing reasons for a decline that pertain exclusively to American realities. In the next overview, we will discuss other reasons.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend section. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the decline of the American currency in the future. The targets for the current trend section could reach the 25-figure mark. However, the last upward section of the trend has taken on a corrective appearance again; therefore, we may now see the beginning of a minimum downward wave of this section, with the maximum being a new downward corrective wave.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. However, wave 4 itself may take on a five-wave form.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, but the current wave set will likely remain corrective. Therefore, a decline at the beginning of next week is also possible, and the attempt to break the 1.3360 mark was unsuccessful.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Do not forget about protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Expect from the Fed: Two Main Scenarios

.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's verdict may determine the direction of the U.S. dollar for several weeks (or even months) ahead. The December meeting is particularly significant because, amid internal disagreements, the central bank must define its position regarding the pace of monetary policy easing.

First, it is essential to note that the formal outcomes of the December meeting are virtually predetermined. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 90%. Thus, the market has little doubt about this. The implementation of the base scenario will not surprise anyone—traders' attention will be focused on the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The intrigue lies in how aggressive future monetary policy easing will be, and there is no consensus on this.

The overwhelming majority of economists surveyed by Reuters (89 out of 109) expect the central bank to implement a 25-point cut at the December meeting. However, only 50 of them considered the possibility of an additional rate cut during the first quarter of 2026. According to the same CME FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut in January is 23%, while in March it is 37%.

In other words, the market does not doubt the prospects of a rate cut in December but is skeptical about the likelihood of further easing—at least in the first quarter of next year. This indicates that the December meeting could play out in one of two scenarios: either the Fed confirms market expectations by announcing a wait-and-see approach, or it refutes them by allowing the possibility of an additional rate cut at one of the upcoming meetings.

It is noteworthy that both the "dovish wing" of the Fed and those favoring a wait-and-see position can support their views with macroeconomic arguments.

On the side of the "doves" are the ISM manufacturing index, which remains in contraction territory, falling to 48.2; retail sales, which increased only by 0.2% (the lowest level since May); consumer confidence, which fell to a multi-month low of 88.7; and a mixed labor market report reflecting an increase in U.S. unemployment to 4.4% (the highest level since October 2021). Additionally, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index plummeted to -15 points (against a forecast of -5), and the Durable Goods Orders report revealed a meager 0.5% increase in orders for durable goods after a 2.5% increase the previous month.

On the side of moderate hawks is inflation. Although I believe this is not the strongest argument for advocating a hawkish position. While inflation in the U.S. remains relatively high, key indicators are either growing slowly or stagnating. In particular, the latest CPI growth report for September (the last published) showed a slower overall inflation rate increase (3.0% against a forecast of 3.1%) and a deceleration in core inflation (3.0%, after rising to 3.1% in August). Overall PPI increased to 2.7% year-on-year in September (after a decrease to 2.6% in August), while core PPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose to 2.9% (against a forecast of +2.8% – this was the only component of the report that came in positive).

The ISM services activity index also improved, rising to 52.6 (against a forecast of a decline to 52.0). This indicator shows an upward trend for the second consecutive month. However, not everything is "smooth" here either. For instance, the employment component remains in contraction territory (48.9), meaning growth in the services sector is not accompanied by employment strengthening. Moreover, the new orders component significantly declined in November, from 56.2 to 52.9.

On the hawks' side, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 53.0 this month, above a forecast of 52.0. This indicator showed an upward trend for the first time after four months of consecutive declines. On one hand, everything is straightforward here, with no "flaws." But on the other hand, despite its increase, the index remains low by historical standards. For example, in December last year, it was at 74.0. Moreover, some components of this index—such as the perception of current conditions—show a downward trend, reflecting persistent structural issues (in particular, the Current Economic Conditions Index fell in December to 50.7 from 51.1).

Therefore, in my opinion, the results of the December Fed meeting will likely have a "dovish" tone. The central bank is unlikely to announce the next rate cut directly, but it will focus on the risks of a weakening labor market and weaker economic data, while highlighting inflation risks.

The intrigue remains in this issue. As of today, it is only reliably known that five voting members of the Committee among twelve have opposed further rate cuts. Four have openly favored easing monetary policy—three members of the Board of Governors (Miran, Waller, Bowman) and the New York Fed President, Williams. Whether the "doves" will be able to impose their initiative on the centrists remains an open question.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold and Stocks Rising Together: A Signal of a New Bubble?

.

2025 has marked a rare moment in financial history—a time when two opposing asset classes have begun to rise simultaneously. Gold, traditionally a safe haven against risk, and stocks, symbolizing a bet on economic growth, have suddenly moved in the same direction. This unusual coincidence has prompted the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to publicly warn the markets: we are witnessing "explosive behavior" in both asset categories—and this could mean much more than just a good year for investors.

Such a combination contradicts the classic logic of financial markets, where gold rises when stocks fall and vice versa. Now, both curves are pointing upwards. The main concern for the BIS is that if two opposing forces move in the same direction, it indicates that the balancing mechanism is disrupted. And where balance is broken, risk inevitably accumulates.

2025 Gold Surge: A Signal Not to Be Ignored

Gold is finishing the year with an increase of about 60%—the best result in almost half a century. However, what is more important than the number itself is what lies behind it. Previously, gold's price growth was almost synonymous with crisis expectations, but 2025 changes the formula: gold is being bought not only out of fear but also in hopes of profit.

Demand from central banks has notably increased, especially in countries looking to reduce their dependence on the dollar and diversify reserves. This factor provides fundamental support for gold.

Retail and institutional investment flows are also playing a significant role. Gold ETFs are reporting record inflows, and individual investors are actively buying the metal amid uncertainty, currency fluctuations, and a lack of confidence in traditional safe assets such as long-term government bonds.

The geopolitical backdrop adds intensity: the world is facing a series of risk events, instability in key regions, a resurgence of energy conflicts, and rising tensions in trade relations among major economies. All of this makes gold a symbol of "insurance."

However, the current rise in gold does not resemble a classic crisis response. It is more akin to the dynamics of a speculative asset: the upward movement is not only a reaction to bad news but also a reflection of strong demand fueled by expectations of further increases.

Why Are Stocks and Gold Rising Together—and Why Is This a Worrying Signal?

Herein lies the most crucial observation from the BIS: gold is no longer acting as a counterbalance to risk. It is moving in synergy with equity markets—especially technology and AI companies, which continue to show aggressive growth in 2025.

For the financial system, this means the disappearance of the traditional "safety cushion." If stocks rise, gold does not offset risk. Conversely, if gold rises, it does not protect against market downturns but merely follows the overall trend.

As a result, investors find themselves "trapped" in correlated assets, increasing the likelihood of a deeper, sharper crisis if the macroeconomic environment changes.

The BIS poses a key question: if a moment of true uncertainty arrives, where will capital flee if both usual directions are similarly overvalued?

Growing Speculativeness: Gold as a New "Stock"

One of the BIS's critical theses is that gold is beginning to behave like a risk asset. This is not merely a transition to a new state; it is a signal that traditional capital allocation mechanisms are failing.

Whereas gold was once a conservative portfolio element, it is now increasingly viewed as a way to play the same game as investors in stock markets. This makes gold simultaneously attractive and dangerous.

Macroeconomic Trap: Why Synchronous Growth May End Quickly

The modern financial market is highly susceptible to expectations—especially regarding interest rates and the dollar's exchange rate. The current growth of both gold and stocks is fueled by several factors: dollar weakness, expectations for rate cuts, hopes for a soft monetary policy, and faith in the resilience of the technology sector. However, if even one link in this chain falters, the entire mechanism could reverse.

If interest rates begin to rise contrary to expectations, gold will lose its attractiveness. If the dollar strengthens, some speculative positions will be closed. If the tech market cracks, the decline could spill over into the entire range of assets. This is the main vulnerability: the current growth is built on expectations rather than stable fundamentals.

When Assets Rise Together, They Also Fall Together: The Risk of a Double Bubble

The BIS warns that the synchronous rise of gold and stocks undermines the very essence of diversification. When the market falls, investors will find themselves in a situation where the "safe" asset does not save them but instead amplifies their portfolio's drawdown. This situation is especially dangerous for large holders of gold: central banks, sovereign funds, and governments may face systemic losses if prices reverse sharply.

In this sense, the rise in gold is not only a market story but also a potential factor for the financial stability of nations.

What Should Investors Do in the Face of a Double Overheating?

The current situation requires market participants to take a fundamentally different approach than what has worked in recent years.

1. Do not view gold as an unconditional safety net. Its role has changed, and it may now pose a risk alongside stocks.
2. Portfolios built on the binary logic of "stocks + gold" need to be reevaluated: such a structure is no longer protective.
3. For long-term investors, true diversification is essential: incorporate real assets, currency instruments, bonds from various jurisdictions, and alternative investments.
4. Finally, locking in some profits is important. The period of an overheated market is often when rational capital protection yields the best results.

A Market Without a Counterbalance: A New Reality or a Temporary Glitch?

The financial world is at a turning point where gold is ceasing to be the eternal counterweight to risk, while stocks continue to rise amid soft monetary policy and excitement surrounding technology.

This creates a new, unfamiliar landscape. The BIS did not issue warnings lightly: the synchronous rise of two opposing assets is not just a rare event but a concerning one. It indicates a shift in the financial system toward a mode in which rational logic gives way to expectations and an influx of liquidity.

How long can this paradox last? Until a shock occurs that can pull the market back to its classic behavioral model. But when that happens, both gold and stocks will face a test of resilience.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin Ends 2025 in the Red for the First Time in Three Years

.

The cryptocurrency market is ending 2025 on a troubling note: as of Monday, the price of Bitcoin has dropped to $90,600, which is 10.5% lower than the values at the end of the previous year. This marks the first annual decline for the leading digital currency since 2022, signaling a trend reversal after impressive highs at the beginning of the year.

In October, Bitcoin surged above $126,000, setting a new all-time high. However, subsequent geopolitical events and macroeconomic upheavals drastically changed the trading landscape.

A turning point occurred on October 10 when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and threatened to impose export controls on critical software products. These statements undermined investor confidence and triggered a massive liquidation of leveraged positions in the cryptocurrency market: within a day, positions worth over $19 billion were liquidated—marking the largest single-day collapse of leveraged positions in history. In just one day, Bitcoin plummeted from $122,000 to less than $105,000, losing 14% of its value.

Throughout 2025, Bitcoin increasingly began to "correlate" with the traditional stock market. According to fresh data from LSEG, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index reached 0.5 (up from 0.29 in 2024), and with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, it climbed to 0.52 (up from last year's 0.23). This indicates that the cryptocurrency is responding more frequently to movements in stock indices, rising or falling in unison with them.

"The relationship between the cryptocurrency market and stock indices has been pronounced throughout the year," noted Jasper De Maere, a strategist at crypto firm Wintermute. He added that this is the first instance since 2014 in which Bitcoin has shown negative dynamics even as the S&P 500 rises.

Particularly sensitive was the influence of fluctuations in the stock market of companies working with artificial intelligence—an industry that investors consider high-risk and speculative. "The cryptocurrency felt pressure after October 10, and amid uncertainties surrounding AI prospects, the market began to oscillate," stated Cosmo Jiang, general partner at Pantera Capital.

The flight of institutional investors has not helped either: in November, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record monthly outflow of $3.79 billion. The leader in outflows was the iShares Bitcoin Trust from BlackRock, which saw investors parting with $2.34 billion—surpassing the previous anti-record from February ($3.56 billion).

Nevertheless, some major players continue to bet on Bitcoin. Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, once again expressed confidence in the digital asset: his company acquired an additional 10,624 tokens for $963 million, increasing its holdings to an impressive 660,624 BTC. In a conversation with Reuters, he emphasized: "Our strategy will withstand even a 95% drop in the price of Bitcoin."

Now, market participants' attention is focused on the upcoming Fed meeting. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is estimated at 87%. According to analysts, this decision will play a key role in determining the future dynamics of cryptocurrencies. Along with news from the AI market, the central bank's actions will be key drivers of Bitcoin's behavior at the start of 2026.

For traders, current events signal that it is time for strategic flexibility. The growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional indices (S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100) creates opportunities for arbitrage and cross-asset diversification.

Furthermore, high volatility during major economic announcements (such as Fed rhetoric or geopolitical events) provides the chance to profit from short-term fluctuations. Those following Michael Saylor's example might view pullbacks as opportunities to increase long-term investments in the largest cryptocurrency at reduced prices.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Plays a Subtle Game

.

"Beat the enemy with his own weapon." Donald Trump intends to force the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1% and stimulate the U.S. economy by the end of his presidency. What happens next – whether it is uncontrollable inflation or a double recession – is of little concern. "After me, the flood." Jerome Powell has a response for the White House occupant. He is playing a subtle game, making EUR/USD and all markets tense.

The U.S. dollar may react sharply to the outcomes of the last FOMC meeting in 2025, or it may not react at all. The base scenario involves a "hawkish" cut, where, after a rate decrease in federal funds, Jerome Powell indicates the Fed's intention to maintain a prolonged pause. This would be good news for the greenback. However, the USD index is not rising, despite the base scenario.

Perhaps the reason lies in the soon-to-be change of chair? The White House's Kevin Hassett will undoubtedly seek to implement Trump's plan to lower the rate to 1%. Thus, the market shows little interest in Jerome Powell's outgoing speech. Investors are looking for prospects for long-term borrowing costs. Here arises an intriguing inconsistency.

Dynamics of the Fed Rate and U.S. Bond Yields

Currently, U.S. Treasury yields are higher than at the start of the Fed's monetary expansion cycle. Typically, the opposite occurs: a decrease in the federal funds rate pulls down bond market rates. However, the current decoupling suggests that investors do not expect aggressive monetary expansion. In their view, borrowing costs will stabilize at 3.25% by the end of the cycle. Is the idea of appointing Kevin Hassett as Fed Chairman doomed to fail?

Trump employs the principle of "divide and conquer." He floods the FOMC with "doves," encouraging division within the Committee. However, Powell also encourages dissent. He uses the enemy's weapon to achieve his goal – preserving the central bank's independence. Indeed, if FOMC members become accustomed to dissent, they will express it even with the new chairman. The chances of Hassett aggressively lowering rates are decreasing.

Powell has not yet decided whether to leave the FOMC permanently or retain his seat as a regular governor. His predecessors opted for the former, but now much more is at stake – independence. If the current Fed head remains, it will be a kind of vote of no confidence in his successor. In addition to "hawks" and "doves," the Committee will also include a new character – the lame duck. This figure will put obstacles in Trump's path.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls' inability to break the resistance at the upper boundary of the fair value range of 1.1540-1.1665 for the second time indicates their weakness. The risks of a price decline to 1.1585 remain. A focus on short-term selling followed by a reversal seems prudent.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD: RBA Rushing to the Rescue – Support for the Aussie Dollar

.At the conclusion of the Reserve Bank of Australia's December meeting, the central bank maintained all monetary policy parameters unchanged, including the interest rate at 3.6%. The central bank implemented the baseline, most-expected scenario; thus, initially, the Aussie declined across the market, including against the American currency. However, subsequent comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock turned the AUD/USD pair around, and the price again tested the 0.6650 resistance level (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe).

It is worth noting that ahead of the December meeting, traders had heightened hawkish expectations regarding the RBA's future actions. Following the release of the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in Australia, the market was confident that the central bank would take a wait-and-see approach this month. The probability of a rate cut had fallen to zero, so a pause became the base scenario. However, just a week before the December meeting, Michele Bullock, speaking in Parliament, outlined hawkish themes. She stated that if inflation proves to be persistent, it will affect future monetary policy decisions. The market interpreted these words as a signal that the RBA is considering raising interest rates next year.

Based on the meeting's results, market participants were correct in their assessment of the situation. Bullock reiterated her previously stated themes and confirmed traders' hawkish expectations.

Firstly, the RBA Governor noted that further rate cuts "may not be required." Thus, it can now be confidently said that the easing cycle is "officially over." Bullock made similar hints at the previous meeting, but now there is no doubt about it.

Secondly, she acknowledged that members of the Bank's governing board discussed the possibility of raising interest rates next year if inflation persists at current levels or accelerates. According to Bullock, the risks have shifted toward tightening monetary policy.

It is essential to note that at the beginning of December (before the RBA meeting), Reuters conducted a survey of economists, in which the majority (19 out of 33) said the interest rate would remain at its current level of 3.6% next year. Ten respondents allowed for a rate cut, while only four predicted an increase. Clearly, following the December meeting, the number of "hawks" among analysts will noticeably increase.

At the same time, interest-rate futures at the beginning of December had already priced in a greater than 70% probability of at least one rate increase by the end of 2026.

Now the focus is on inflation and the labor market. To recap, the Consumer Price Index in Australia rose to 3.8% year-on-year in October, while most analysts expected it to be 3.6%. With this report, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) changed the format – the Consumer Price Index will now be published monthly. However, with the addition of the Monthly CPI, the ABS did not replace it with the quarterly index.

According to Michele Bullock, with the monthly series of CPI data, "caution is necessary," as this is an additional (for now) experimental, more volatile, and less comprehensive indicator. In this context, the RBA Governor highlighted the importance of the quarterly trimmed mean CPI for Q4 (the release is expected at the end of January 2025), "so the Governing Council can separate one-off price increases from demand-driven pressures."

All of this suggests that the fate of the RBA's interest rate will be decided at the beginning of next year. If key inflation indicators (particularly quarterly data) remain at current levels or begin to slow, the RBA will likely continue its pause. However, if CPI continues to accelerate and labor market tightness persists, the likelihood of an interest rate increase will significantly rise.

Overall, the current fundamental backdrop favors further growth in AUD/USD due to divergent monetary policies between the RBA and the Fed.

The technical picture also confirms this. On the daily chart, the pair remains between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands and above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, forming a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. A similar pattern has also formed on the H4 and W1 timeframes. Long positions should be considered on downward price retracements. The first target is at 0.6650 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the daily and four-hour charts). If the pair breaks this price barrier, the next target for the upward movement will be the 0.6710 level – this is the annual price peak, updated in September of this year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

.

Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements made by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock.

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6%. In the accompanying statement, the regulator noted that the Board will closely monitor incoming data and change assessments of risks and outlook when making policy decisions.

During the press conference, RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasized that inflation and labor market indicators will play a key role in decisions made at the February meeting. She added that further rate cuts are unlikely to be necessary and that the Board discussed possible measures that could be taken in the event that interest rates need to be raised.

Over the past two weeks, markets have reassessed the likelihood that the RBA will continue a tight policy stance, as inflationary pressures remain elevated. As a result, inflation remains above the Bank's target range of 2–3%, calling into question the possibility of significant monetary easing.

Bullock also stated that if inflation proves persistent, it will affect the central bank's future policy decisions. Some analysts believe that as domestic conditions stabilize and inflation shows no signs of slowing, the RBA may halt its easing cycle in 2026 and even consider tightening credit conditions.

On the U.S. dollar side, last week the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose 2.8%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI also increased 2.8% from August. Together with signs of labor market cooling, this supports the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the U.S. central bank following the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Such a scenario would limit the dollar's recovery from its December lows, last seen in late October, and support the AUD/USD pair.

For better trading opportunities, attention should be focused on the weekly ADP employment change report and the JOLTS job openings data. After that, the focus will shift to the FOMC decision on Wednesday and the Australian monthly employment report to be released on Thursday.

From a technical standpoint, the oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, though it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory. Nevertheless, buying above 0.6650 or above Monday's multi-month high will create conditions for further gains and movement toward the yearly high.

On the other hand, weakness in the pair below the round 0.6600 level may be viewed as a buying opportunity within the 0.6560–0.6550 level, below which lies the 100-day SMA. A drop below this moving average will accelerate the decline toward the psychological level of 0.6500. Failure to stay above this level shifts the probability in favor of the bears.

The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian dollar against major currencies today. The Australian dollar has shown the greatest strength against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

.

Today, the Australian dollar is attracting new buyers in response to aggressive statements from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock.

From a technical standpoint, the AUD/USD pair is finding some support near the 0.6610–0.6620 level. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the overbought zone, confirming a constructive short-term outlook for the currency pair. Buying above 0.6650 — the multi-month high reached on Monday — would create conditions for testing the yearly high, a level just above the round 0.6700 level set in September.

On the other hand, weakness in the pair below the round 0.6600 level can be viewed as a buying opportunity near the 0.6560–0.6550 level. Below this area lies the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around 0.6540–0.6535. Failure to hold these levels would push AUD/USD down toward the psychological 0.6500 level, targeting the 200-day SMA in the 0.6475 level. Inability to defend these support levels would invalidate the positive forecast, shifting the short-term bias in favor of the bears and exposing the multi-month low around 0.6420 reached in November.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

.

The USD/CAD pair is struggling to strengthen after a decent rebound from the round level of 1.3800, which is the lowest value since September 22. At the moment, spot quotes fluctuate around 1.3850, but traders are cautious and avoid opening active positions amid mixed fundamental factors.

Optimistic employment data from Canada, published last Friday, reinforced the Bank of Canada's "hawkish" outlook, which typically supports the Canadian dollar and puts pressure on USD/CAD. At the same time, the potential for CAD appreciation is limited by risks that the United States, under President Donald Trump, may introduce new tariffs on agricultural products, including Canadian fertilizers and Indian rice.

Meanwhile, oil prices continue to consolidate the substantial losses incurred the day before, which negatively affects the Canadian dollar—closely tied to commodity markets—and supports the USD/CAD pair. However, bullish investors are in no hurry to take decisive action, since recent U.S. dollar strength has been constrained by expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, limiting buyers' activity.

Additionally, market participants prefer to remain patient ahead of key monetary policy–related events this week: the upcoming update of the Bank of Canada's programs and the long-awaited Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Important U.S. macroeconomic releases are also scheduled for Tuesday—the weekly ADP employment report and JOLTS job openings data—which may provide additional momentum. Nevertheless, the divergent outlook for Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policies requires a cautious approach from investors hoping for a continued rise in USD/CAD.

From a technical perspective, the recent drop below the 200-day SMA favors the bears, and oscillators on the same chart are also negative. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the Relative Strength Index is close to the oversold zone, confirming a minor pullback. Even so, the path of least resistance for the pair remains downward.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on December 9, 2025

.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has transformed, but overall it remains fairly clear. There is no talk of canceling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex and extended since July 1. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which has taken on a very unusual form. Inside this wave, we observe exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

I believe that the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend all the way to the 1.25 level. The series of waves a-b-c-d-e looks finished, and therefore I expect the formation of a new upward sequence of waves in the coming weeks. We have seen the presumed waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is currently in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I expect that within this wave the instrument may rise to 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level; however, the third wave may formally end at any moment, as it has already exceeded the peak of the first wave.

The EUR/USD exchange rate again barely moved throughout Tuesday. I titled this review accordingly, but it is worth explaining what I mean. Today, the only things to look out for are U.S. job openings data and the employment change figures—this is a fact. There are no other significant events on the calendar. However, at this stage we should not be hoping for rising or falling movement of the instrument. We should hope for any movement at all, because in the last few days the market has been paralyzed.

In reality, I do not place great expectations on the JOLTS and ADP reports. Even if they surprise the market with unexpected values, those values relate either to September or October (JOLTS) or cover only a single week (ADP). Therefore, I do not expect a strong market reaction. The fate of the dollar will be decided tomorrow evening, when the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting are released. Predicting what decisions will be made, what monetary policy direction will be chosen for the coming quarters, or what the Fed governors' outlook on interest rates will be for the coming years is no more reliable than reading tea leaves. This is why I do not even attempt it. One thing is obvious to me—the news backdrop for the U.S. currency is so poor that expecting its strengthening is impossible, even if one wanted it (which I do not).

The wave structure of EUR/USD is bogged down in corrective patterns and appears confused by them. We constantly observe alternating upward and downward wave series, where each new wave is roughly equal to the previous one. This indicates that the market is currently drifting in the middle of an ocean. There are no waves—just small gusts of wind preventing the price from drawing a perfectly horizontal line on the chart.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. In the last few months, the market has taken a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed remain strong factors that may contribute to future weakening of the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. However, the latest upward segment has again taken on a corrective form, which means that at minimum a downward wave within this segment may begin now, and at maximum—a new downward corrective sequence.

At a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. But this also happens. I remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts instead of fixating on every single wave. Right now, the upward structure is not in doubt.

Core Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening on the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is never absolute certainty about the market's direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What explains yen's lack of reaction to significant announcements

.

The Japanese yen continues to gradually lose ground against the US dollar, even in light of the differing monetary policies anticipated from central banks in the near future. This indicates that the expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan is already factored into the yen's value, and much will depend on new forecasts. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the long battle against deflation in the country, which has persisted for decades, is nearly over.

Today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank is approaching its inflation target, reinforcing signals that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week. Ueda mentioned in an interview that they are getting closer to achieving stable inflation of 2%.

Ueda's comments came amidst increased expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise borrowing rates to 0.75%, the highest level since 1995. There are concerns that such a rate hike could negatively impact Japan's economic growth, especially given its aging population and declining productivity. Ueda acknowledged these risks but emphasized that maintaining price stability is a top priority. It is expected that the Bank of Japan will act cautiously and gradually to avoid destabilizing the economy.

In his interview, Ueda suggested that the bank is unlikely to stay at its current level, as it continues to adjust its support for the economy. Ueda stated that the bank would continue to gradually adjust its monetary policy as they work towards achieving stable inflation of 2% and returning the policy rate to its natural level, regardless of where that may be.

Currently, traders are assessing the likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting to be approximately 88%, based on overnight swaps. The key focus will be on how Ueda defines the future trajectory of interest rates and his views on the neutral rate at which borrowing costs neither stimulate nor restrain the economy.

Ueda also reiterated the Bank of Japan's position that it is closely monitoring the impact of exchange rates on inflation. Last month, the yen hit 157.89 against the dollar, its lowest level since January, raising concerns about additional inflationary pressures. Ueda remarked that they strive to avoid making direct comments on fiscal policy, as that responsibility lies with the government.

Regarding the current technical picture for USD/JPY, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 156.20. Achieving this will allow them to target 156.60, above which a breakthrough may prove challenging. The ultimate goal will be around 157.05. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to gain control at the 156.00 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push USD/JPY down to a low of 155.70, with the potential for a move towards 155.40.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Central Bank of Argentina moves towards cryptocurrencies

.

As Bitcoin prepares for a significant movement that could occur following tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting—an outcome that may displease many buyers—Argentina is considering allowing domestic banks to trade digital assets and offer cryptocurrency-related services, a move that could accelerate cryptocurrency adoption in the country.

The Central Bank of the Argentine Republic recently announced that it is working on changes to its current regulations, which currently prohibit banking institutions from engaging in activities related to digital assets.

If implemented, this step would represent a substantial shift in Argentina's approach to cryptocurrencies. Up until now, regulations in this area have been quite stringent, with direct access to digital assets restricted for banks. Allowing banks to provide cryptocurrency-related services would create new opportunities for investors and users, as well as enhance the infrastructure for trading digital assets.

Several factors are expected to influence the central bank's decision. First, there is the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies among the population. Second, there is the desire to stimulate economic growth through innovation in the financial sector. Third, Argentina aims to align itself with global trends in the regulation of digital assets. For banks, this would open new prospects, enabling them to expand their service offerings, attract new clients, and increase profitability. Furthermore, the involvement of banks in the cryptocurrency space could enhance trust in digital assets and promote their wider acceptance.

It is anticipated that these new changes may be approved as early as April 2026. According to media reports, local experts and exchanges have stated that granting local banks access to cryptocurrencies and digital asset services could signal the dawn of a new era of widespread adoption in the region.

It is worth noting that Brazil, the leading country in Latin America in terms of cryptocurrency volume, recently expanded its financial regulations to include the digital asset industry. The new rules require cryptocurrency service providers to obtain permission from the central bank to operate.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $90,300 level, which would open a direct path to $92,800; from there, it would be a short distance to $95,000. The ultimate target will be the peak around $97,300, and a breakthrough above this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers around the $88,200 level. A return below this area could quickly push BTC down towards $85,800, with the further target being the region of $83,200.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,126 level opens a direct path to $3,233. The ultimate goal will be the peak around $3,362, and surpassing this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are anticipated at the $3,023 level. A drop below this area could rapidly push ETH down to around $2,924, with the ultimate target being around $2,858.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.34 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

The dollar continued to gain against the yen for the third consecutive day, despite the Bank of Japan seemingly planning to raise interest rates, while the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lower them. However, since this scenario has been anticipated since the end of last month, there is nothing surprising in the upward correction of the USD/JPY pair.

Later today, attention will focus on the ADP weekly employment change report, which is considered a leading indicator ahead of the official U.S. Department of Labor employment data. However, it's important to consider methodological differences between ADP and the Department of Labor, treating ADP data as indicative rather than exact—especially given their high volatility due to the short period.

Additionally, the JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released, providing a more detailed picture of the labor market. It includes data on job openings, hires, layoffs, and voluntary quits. A high number of job openings can signal a shortage of qualified personnel and indicate that companies are confident in growth, actively expanding their workforce. Overall, strong data may trigger another wave of USD/JPY gains.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.25 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 156.73 (thicker green line). Near 156.73, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move). A rise in the pair today can be expected only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 155.96 while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. A rise toward 156.25 and 156.73 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the 155.96 level is broken (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 155.50, where I will exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. data are very weak. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 156.25 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 155.96 and 155.50 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually taking profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based solely on current market conditions is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3337 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun to move upward from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by just over 15 points.

Pound buyers became active despite the lack of significant fundamental data from the UK. Traders are betting that the regulator will be forced to maintain a wait-and-see stance on interest rates, despite concerns about slowing UK GDP growth, in order to keep persistently high inflation under control.

In the second half of the day, we expect the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, as well as a new economic indicator — the weekly ADP employment change. In addition, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The NFIB index provides insight into the sentiment of small business owners, a vital component of the U.S. economy and a key influence on its overall health. A rise in the index often supports the U.S. dollar.

The weekly ADP employment change is viewed as an early signal ahead of the official U.S. Department of Labor employment report. Weekly ADP data cover a significant portion of the private sector but are far more volatile than the monthly report. The JOLTS report provides deeper insight into labor market dynamics than just job creation figures, including data on job openings, hires, layoffs, and quits. A high number of job openings may indicate a shortage of qualified workers and signal that companies are confident in growth and actively expanding. Strong data tend to benefit the U.S. dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3348 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.3374 (thicker green line). Near 1.3374, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move in reverse). A rise in the pound today can be expected only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3323 price while the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3348 and 1.3374 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level of 1.3323 (red line on the chart) is broken, which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3285, where I will exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound). Pressure on the pound may return today if U.S. data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of 1.3348 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3323 and 1.3285 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 9th (U.S. Session)

.

Analysis of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

The first test of the 1.1640 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1640 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, which triggered Scenario #2 for buying euros and resulted in a 15-point rise — nearly the entire intraday volatility.

Positive German trade data supported the euro in the first half of the day, as the figures exceeded analysts' preliminary forecasts. According to Destatis, Germany's trade surplus increased in October, reflecting the stability of the German economy and its export capabilities.

Later today, market participants will focus on the U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. This indicator historically influences investor sentiment and serves as a leading signal for assessing the country's economic health. Also today, the weekly ADP employment change report will be published. The report shows the average change in U.S. private-sector employment over the past four weeks. These data are released weekly on Tuesdays, roughly two weeks after collection. The indicators are more volatile than the monthly ADP employment reports. Recall that weekly ADP reports began being published in October 2025. Higher-than-expected readings tend to support the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1658 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1691. At 1.1691, I plan to exit the market, and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1635 price at a moment when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. You may expect a rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1658 and 1.1691.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1605, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point rebound from that level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the data are strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1658 while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1635 and 1.1605 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, rely on overbought and oversold conditions.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.