Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

#NDX – March Results and April Outlook

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March concluded with a bearish candle that left a notable mark in the history books. Bears closed below the monthly short-term trend level (19,730) and eliminated the weekly golden cross, testing support at the upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (18,821). If the decline continues, bearish targets will include testing and breaking through the next monthly support level (18,204) and exiting the weekly cloud (17,408). Should the bulls regain control by reclaiming the monthly short-term trend (19,730), they will aim to retest the levels of the weekly Ichimoku cross (20,103 – 20,508 – 20,914). Consolidation above these resistance levels will open the door for testing and updating the all-time high (22,225).

There is currently a downtrend occurring on the daily timeframe, but a corrective move has emerged and aims to test the first key level of the daily correction, which today lies at 19,566 (Tenkan-sen). Additional resistance levels are located at 19,730 – 19,765 – 20,065 – 20,103. A completed corrective climb followed by a drop below the corrective zone (18,792) will confirm a consolidation within the weekly cloud (18,821). The next downward target will be the monthly support at 18,204.

In the lower timeframes, the market is also in the corrective zone, and the main boundary on the way of bulls is the weekly long-term trend (19518). The breakdown and reversal of the trend will allow us to consider new upward benchmarks. The resistance of the classic Pivot levels (19565 - 19708 - 19946) will become these intraday targets. Completing the corrective rise and descent through the support of classic Pivot levels (19183 - 19945 - 18802) will allow an update on the minimum extreme of March (18792) and restore the downtrend.

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Technical Analysis Components:

• Higher Timeframes: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Fibonacci Kijun levels
• H1: Classic Pivot Points and 120-period Moving Average (weekly long-term trend)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on April 2, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart is on the verge of transforming into a more complex structure. Since September 25 of last year, a new downward wave structure began to form, taking the shape of a five-wave impulse. Three months ago, a corrective upward structure began forming, which should consist of at least three waves. The first wave of this correction was well-formed, so I still expect the second wave to follow a clear structure. However, this second wave has become so large that a significant transformation of the overall wave count is now a real risk.

From a fundamental standpoint, recent news continues to support sellers more than buyers. All recent U.S. economic reports have signaled that the economy is not facing serious problems and shows no signs of slowing to levels that would cause concern. However, the situation in the U.S. economy could change dramatically in 2025 due to Donald Trump's policy. The Fed may cut rates multiple times, while tariffs and retaliatory tariffs could weigh on economic growth. If not for recent developments, I would have continued expecting a euro decline with a 90% probability — but now, it's no longer that clear-cut.

EUR/USD remained virtually unchanged over Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. Market movements are almost non-existent, and trader activity is close to zero. Why is this happening, despite what seems like a jam-packed economic calendar? As usual, the answer lies with Donald Trump. He is scheduled to speak during the U.S. session today, and the market is waiting to hear which new trade tariffs might be introduced. Until the new "tariff plan" is announced, market participants see little reason to enter trades.

There are a few speculations about what the new tariffs might look like. Some economists believe Trump may impose a 20–25% tariff on all imported goods from all countries. Others think the plan could be more complex, with different rates for different countries. Trump has frequently stated that he is most concerned about the U.S. trade balance with countries where the deficit is too large. Therefore, it's plausible that over the past few weeks, the president and his sizable team have been working on a customized tariff plan rather than a one-size-fits-all 20% hike.

Personally, I don't see the point in speculating. Even major global analysts and banks are refraining from betting on any particular scenario. Trump is too unpredictable, and his actions often defy logic. That's why I suggest simply waiting for this crucial announcement and only then drawing conclusions.

General Conclusions

Based on the current EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument is still forming a downward segment of the trend — although in the near future, it could shift to an upward trend. A renewed rise in the euro would transform the entire wave pattern. Since the fundamental backdrop currently contradicts the wave count, I cannot recommend short positions — even though the current price levels look extremely attractive for selling with targets below the 1.0200 area, provided the wave picture remains intact.

At the higher wave scale, the structure has evolved into an impulse wave. It is likely that we are entering a new long-term downward series of waves, though the news flow — especially from Donald Trump — has the potential to turn everything upside down.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there is no clarity in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction never exists. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Analysis on April 2, 2025

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The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains somewhat ambiguous, though generally manageable. Currently, there's still a strong likelihood of a long-term downward trend forming. Wave 5 has taken a convincing shape, so I consider senior wave 1 complete. If that assumption is correct, wave 2 is still in the process of forming. The first two subwaves of wave 2 appear to be complete. The third may be nearing completion — or already finished.

Recent demand for the pound has been driven solely by the "Trump factor," which continues to be the primary support for the British currency. However, in the longer term (beyond a few days), the pound still lacks fundamental drivers for growth. The stance of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve has recently shifted in the pound's favor, as the BoE is now also not rushing to cut rates. The current wave structure hasn't been violated yet, but any further rise in the pair would raise significant concerns.

The GBP/USD exchange rate remained flat on Wednesday — just like on Tuesday and Monday. We've been witnessing a sideways trend for almost a month. Were there economic reasons behind it? Yes and no. For example, yesterday there was enough economic data from the EU, the UK, and the U.S. to stir the market a bit. But traders remain inactive — and who can blame them?

The most important reports yesterday were the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the JOLTS job openings report. To be fair, these aren't reports that must compel aggressive trading. However, the ISM index fell below the 50.0 threshold — a notable development. As a reminder, business activity indices are, to some extent, leading indicators of economic health. A decline indicates that the sector is either stagnating or in recession. Thus, yesterday's data suggested the U.S. manufacturing sector is slipping back into recession. Meanwhile, the JOLTS figure reflects a labor market that's not entirely healthy — and could start weakening under Trump's new policies.

This Friday brings employment and unemployment data, which may provide the U.S. dollar with another opportunity to continue its decline. In my view, what really matters isn't the new tariffs from Trump (which the market has already priced in several times), but actual evidence that the economy is starting to "suffer" under the new president. If such evidence begins to accumulate, demand for the U.S. dollar may resume its decline — even though that would contradict the current wave structure.

General Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD suggests that the formation of a downward trend segment continues, along with its second wave. At this stage, I would advise looking for new short entries, as the current wave count still implies a continuation of the downtrend that began last autumn. However, how Trump and his policies will further impact market sentiment — and for how long — remains a mystery. The recent rise of the pound looks excessive relative to the wave structure, but I'm still anticipating a decline into the 1.20 area.

At the larger wave scale, the pattern has evolved. We can now assume that a downward segment of the trend is forming, as the previous three-wave upward movement is clearly complete. If that assumption is correct, we should expect to see a corrective wave 2 or b, followed by an impulsive wave 3 or c.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex formations are harder to trade and often signal changes.
2. If there's uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in price direction never exists. Always use Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.69 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar and missed the entire move down.

In the second half of the day, all attention will shift to Trump's speech and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs. This decision will undoubtedly trigger a chain reaction across the global economy, provoking volatility in the currency markets and heightening fears of a looming trade war. The initial trader reaction will be crucial. If the actual tariffs differ significantly from Trump's earlier statements, demand for the U.S. dollar will likely return—leading to a weakening of the yen.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 149.49 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.11 (thicker green line). Around 150.11, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point retracement). A rise in the pair may occur as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 149.12 level, while the MACD is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside and trigger a reversal to the upside. A move toward the opposite levels of 149.49 and 150.11 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below 149.12 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers is 148.75, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point bounce). Selling pressure could emerge at any time today—especially after Trump's speech. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of 149.49, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This would cap the upward potential and trigger a reversal to the downside. A move toward the opposite levels of 149.12 and 148.75 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually fix profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually fix profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering trades, it's important to watch for overbought and oversold signals.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders must make market entry decisions with extreme caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of major fundamental data to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you're not practicing proper money management and trading with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I've outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.2905 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of 1.2905 while the MACD was in oversold territory triggered Scenario #2 for buying, resulting in a gain of over 40 points.

Strong data on U.S. ADP employment change and factory orders could revive demand for the U.S. dollar. As a result, a decline in the British pound would be a natural consequence, as the UK economy continues to face its own challenges, including inflation and uncertainty over future trade prospects. These issues are unlikely to provide enough support to sustain the pound's value.

Comments from Adriana D. Kugler, a Federal Reserve representative, will likely focus on the need for careful analysis of macroeconomic data before making any further policy decisions. Her cautious approach, avoiding promises of rapid policy easing, may reinforce market expectations that high interest rates will remain for longer — a factor that would pressure the pound while supporting the dollar.

However, the main focus is now on Trump's speech and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, the exact details of which are still unknown. This decision will undoubtedly trigger a series of global economic consequences, including increased volatility in markets and heightened concerns about an impending trade standoff.

As for today's intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.2952 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 1.3009 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3009, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point reversal). A bullish outlook for the pound today is valid only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2928 level, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and trigger a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.2952 and 1.3009 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a break below the 1.2928 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 1.2875, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound). Sellers are likely to become more active if U.S. employment data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2952 level, while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.2928 and 1.2875 is expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – Entry price to buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually close profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – Entry price to sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or point to manually close profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – When entering the market, it's important to assess overbought and oversold conditions.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly — especially if you don't apply proper money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've provided above. Spontaneous decision-making based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2nd (U.S. Session)

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Trade Breakdown and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.0803 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. Shortly afterward, another test of the 1.0803 level occurred while MACD was in overbought territory, which allowed for the execution of Scenario #2 for selling, resulting in only a 15-point drop in the pair.

Due to insufficient statistical data from the eurozone, the observed buying activity near yesterday's low kept trading within the range suggested earlier in the day. However, the second half of the day promises to be much more eventful, as we await ADP employment data from the U.S., which often serves as a leading indicator for broader labor market reports. Analysts closely examine this release to assess the current employment landscape and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Additionally, U.S. factory orders will also be reported. An increase in factory orders typically supports the U.S. dollar. FOMC member Adriana D. Kugler is also scheduled to speak today, but her remarks will likely be overshadowed by Trump's upcoming statements on tariffs, the details of which remain unknown.

As for the intraday strategy, I will continue to rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching the entry point near 1.0815 (green line on the chart), with the goal of rising toward 1.0858. Around 1.0858, I plan to exit long positions and consider shorting the euro in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point correction. A bullish outlook today is only justified if U.S. data comes in weak and Fed officials issue dovish statements. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0788 level, while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the downward potential and could trigger a reversal to the upside. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.0815 and 1.0858 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after a breakout below 1.0788 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0740, where I intend to exit short positions and open immediate long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point retracement. Selling pressure may return if Trump announces aggressive new tariffs. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0815 level, while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and may lead to a reversal to the downside. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.0788 and 1.0740 is likely.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;Thin red line – Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – Approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you neglect money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2903 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. A decline followed by a false breakout at that level provided an entry point for buying the pound, which led to a rise in the pair of over 40 points. The technical outlook was revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on GBP/USD:

The lack of UK data allowed the pair to remain within the sideways channel. However, in the second half of the day, U.S. labor market data could significantly shift the market dynamic. Strong figures from the ADP employment report and U.S. factory orders, along with a cautious tone from FOMC member Adriana D. Kugler, could lead to dollar strength and pressure on the pound.

If the pair declines, I would prefer to act near the 1.2903 support area. A false breakout there, similar to the morning setup, would give a good entry point for long positions with a target of recovering to the 1.2955 resistance. A breakout and retest from top to bottom of that level will confirm another entry into long positions with the goal of updating 1.2990. The final target will be the 1.3010 area, where I plan to take profit.

If GBP/USD drops and buyers are inactive at 1.2903 in the second half of the day, pressure on the pound will increase significantly, putting more downward pressure on the pair. In that case, only a false breakout near 1.2868 will serve as a valid buy signal. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.2837 with an intraday correction target of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on GBP/USD:

Pound sellers are counting on a strong Trump and aggressive tariffs. But if U.S. data disappoints even before the official address from the U.S. President, the pair may rise, and I plan to take advantage of that. Only a false breakout around 1.2955 will provide an entry point for short positions targeting new support at 1.2903, which was formed yesterday.

A breakout and retest of that range from the bottom up will trigger stop-losses and open the path to 1.2868, invalidating buyers' attempts to regain control. The final target will be the 1.2837 area, where I plan to take profit. A test of that level will confirm a return to a bearish market.

If demand for the pound returns in the second half of the day and bears fail to act near 1.2955, short positions should be delayed until the next resistance at 1.2989 is tested. I will open shorts there only after a failed breakout. If there is no downward move from there either, I'll look for short entries on a rebound from 1.3010, targeting a 30–35 point correction.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:

The March 25 COT report showed an increase in long positions and a reduction in shorts. Buying of the pound continues, and this is reflected on the chart. While many risk assets have declined, GBP/USD shows stability.

Given the latest inflation data from the UK and comments from Bank of England officials, the regulator is likely to keep its current policy unchanged at the upcoming April meeting, which could temporarily support the pound. However, the impact of U.S. tariffs remains significant. Rising concerns over a global economic slowdown will continue to pressure risk assets, including the pound.

The latest COT report showed that long non-commercial positions rose by 13,075 to 109,016, while short positions fell by 1,806 to 64,733. As a result, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 1,548.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is occurring near the 30- and 50-period moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty.

Note: The period and price of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly (H1) chart and may differ from classical daily averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.2905 will serve as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving average (MA): Defines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise.
  • 50-period MA is marked in yellow;
  • 30-period MA is marked in green.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence):
  • Fast EMA – 12;
  • Slow EMA – 26;
  • Signal SMA – 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes under specific guidelines.
• Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long positions held by non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on April 2nd (Review of Morning Trades)

.In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0781 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. A decline and the formation of a false breakout at that level provided a good entry point for long positions, which resulted in a 30-point rise in the euro. The technical picture has not been revised for the second half of the day.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

Given the lack of statistical data, relatively active buying around 1.0781—the previous day's low—was fairly expected. However, things may change in the second half of the day. We're expecting U.S. ADP employment change data and factory orders. The speech by FOMC member Adriana D. Kugler is unlikely to attract much attention, as the market focus will be on Trump's speech and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, for which no details have been provided yet. Only a softer tariff format could help risk assets recover.

If the euro falls after the data releases, only a false breakout near the 1.0781 support area will provide a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of a bullish rebound with a target of 1.0813. A breakout and retest from above would confirm the correct entry point, opening the path to 1.0848. The ultimate target will be the 1.0884 area, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD declines and there is no activity around 1.0781, pressure on the euro will increase sharply. In that case, sellers could push the pair to 1.0757. Only after a false breakout there will I consider buying the euro. I plan to buy immediately on a rebound from 1.0736 for an intraday correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers are still waiting, and only more aggressive tariffs from Trump can bring new players into the market betting on a stronger dollar. In case of a negative reaction to the ADP data, only a false breakout near the 1.0813 resistance will allow for short positions, aiming for another decline toward 1.0781 support.

A breakout and consolidation below this range will be a solid sell signal with a move toward 1.0757. The final target will be the 1.0736 area, where I will take profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day after the data and Trump's speech, and bears are inactive near 1.0813—where moving averages are located—buyers could push the pair higher. In this case, I'll delay shorts until the next resistance at 1.0845, selling only after a failed breakout. If no downward movement happens there either, I'll look for shorts on a rebound from 1.0916, targeting a 30–35 point correction.

Commitment of Traders (COT) Report:

The March 25 COT report showed a modest increase in long positions and a significant reduction in shorts. There's no noticeable increase in euro buyers, but sellers are clearly retreating. Considering recent inflation data in the eurozone and ECB officials' comments, the regulator's stance at the upcoming April meeting will likely remain unchanged, which could temporarily support the euro.

However, much will depend on the impact of U.S. tariffs on other countries. The more serious the threat to global economic growth, the greater the pressure on risk assets, including the euro.

According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions rose by 844 to 189,796, while short non-commercial positions dropped by 5,256 to 124,271. The gap between long and short positions increased by 3,855.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is around the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a sideways market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are based on the H1 chart and may differ from the classic daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator near 1.0781 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: Smooths volatility and noise to define the current trend. Period 50 (yellow), Period 30 (green).
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – 12, Slow EMA – 26, Signal SMA – 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes under specific requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions: Total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions: Total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position: The difference between short and long non-commercial positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for April 2-5, 2025: sell below 1.0815 (21 SMA - +1/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, the EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.0807, below the 21-month SMA, and below the +1/8 Murray level, showing signs of exhaustion.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is trading within the bearish trend channel formed on March 12th and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours if EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0815.

If the euro breaks and consolidates above the bearish trend channel, we could expect it to reach +1/8 Murray level at 1.0864 in the coming days. EUR/USD could even reach +2/8 Murray level located at 1.0986.

On the other hand, with a rejection below 1.0815, the instrument could resume its bearish cycle, and we could expect the euro to reach the 8/8 Murray at 1.0742, the 200 EMA around 1.0719, and finally reach the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.0670.

According to the chart, the euro is reaching oversold levels. Hence, a resumption of the bullish cycle is expected. However, there is strong pressure below 1.0830, so we believe that if the euro recovers, we should expect a recovery above 1.0864. Then, EUR/USD could climb to the psychological level of 1.10.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell the euro below 1.0815 with a target at 1.0670.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for April 2-5, 2025: sell below $3,140 or buy above $3,110 (21 SMA - symmetrical triangle)

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Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,122, above the 21 SMA, and within the symmetrical triangle pattern formed from its all-time high at 3,149.

Recent trading suggests that gold is preparing for the most important event of this week: the US nonfarm payrolls, due for release on Friday. We believe this report could favor gold, and the price could reach 3,169 and even +1/8 Murray around 3,203.

Gold is awaiting the official announcement from the US president regarding reciprocal tariffs. This uncertainty is benefiting gold. We believe the instrument could consolidate above the 21 SMA in the coming hours.

The symmetrical triangle pattern observed on the H4 chart shows that gold could experience a strong bullish impulse to reach 3,169, where resistance R_1 is located. Below this area, a technical correction could occur.

Another scenario could be that gold breaks and consolidates below the symmetrical triangle and below the 21SMA around 3,111. Then, the target is seen at the bottom of the uptrend channel around 3,075.

Our trading plan for the coming hours is to sell gold in case of a pullback towards 3,140 or sell if the gold price falls below 3,111, with a target at 3,075.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

$10 billion: cost of mistake. J&J again under spotlight

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Balance sheet indicators are in turmoil. Airline stocks are falling. J&J is also sliding. Big gains for recent IPO names CoreWeave and Newsmax. Indices: Dow down 0.03%, S&P 500 up 0.38%, Nasdaq up 0.87%

Wall Street is shaky, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recover with gains

The US stock market finished Tuesday with key indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite showing gains, despite nervousness among investors ahead of Donald Trump's statements on new tariffs.

Investors on edge: markets are in a frenzy

In recent weeks, financial markets have been trading under high volatility. The reason is concerns that the large-scale tariff initiatives by US President Donald Trump might slow down the country's economic growth and fuel inflation. Investors are balancing between caution and hope while awaiting clarity from the White House.

Markets await signals from the Rose Garden

All eyes are on Trump's speech tomorrow, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET in the White House Rose Garden. He is expected to reveal details of his tariff policy, which could provide at least some clarity in the midst of widespread speculation and rumors.

However, even if he sheds light on some measures, investors will still face overall uncertainty, both regarding the consequences of these steps and the potential reactions from the US's trade partners. This keeps the direction of future market movement unclear and difficult to predict.

Daily swings: from negative to a confident close

Against this tense uncertainty, all three major US stock indices experienced fluctuations throughout the trading session, swinging between gains and losses. It was only in the second half of the day that the positive momentum prevailed.

The day's results were as follows: the broad-market S&P 500 added 21.22 points, or 0.38%, closing at 5,633.07. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite strengthened by 150.60 points, up 0.87%, finishing the day at 17,449.89. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Technology leads the charge: the Nasdaq bounces back

On Tuesday, the technology sector became the driving force for growth on Wall Street. After a rough start to the year, previously struggling IT giants began to regain ground, lifting both Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices higher.

Tesla accelerates gains ahead of earnings report

Tesla stood out, with its stock jumping 3.6% on the back of expectations for a new report on car deliveries for Q1, due to be released Wednesday. Investors are betting on positive numbers and looking for signs of demand recovery.

Other members of the so-called "Magnificent Seven" — Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms — also showed strong growth, rising between 1% and 1.8%. This bolstered the Nasdaq and injected some technological optimism into the market.

Healthcare and airlines drag the market down

However, it wasn't all rosy on the markets. The S&P 500 faced pressure from the healthcare and transportation sectors, which ended in the red due to corporate and legal setbacks.

The real loser of the day was Johnson & Johnson. Shares of the pharmaceutical giant plummeted by 7.6%, showing the worst performance among all companies in the index. The reason: a setback in court, where a US bankruptcy judge rejected J&J's proposal to settle talc-related lawsuits for $10 billion. The lawsuits involve a long-standing dispute regarding talc-based products, which tens of thousands of plaintiffs link to cancer.

The airline market is down: concerns about demand

Airlines also saw weakness. Shares of Delta, American Airlines, and Southwest tumbled between 2.4% and 5.9%. This followed a downgrade of their investment ratings by analysts at Jefferies. Financial experts expressed concern that macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuating consumer sentiment might negatively impact demand for both business and leisure travel.

IPO newcomers soar: Newsmax and CoreWeave make waves

Amidst the general market turbulence, some IPO newcomers became true stars of the trading session. Among them was media player Newsmax, whose shares saw a dizzying surge for the second day in a row.

After a staggering debut on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, when the company's shares rose more than 700%, on Tuesday they shot up another 208%. Given Newsmax's politically charged and Trump-loyal image, investor interest was explosive.

Startup CoreWeave rises after a shaky debut

Another recent IPO participant, AI company CoreWeave, also impressed investors. Despite a shaky debut after listing on Friday, its shares gained an impressive 41.8% on Tuesday, exceeding the offering price. This signals strong demand for shares in AI companies, despite market risks.

Gold finds support, Asia fluctuates

While some investors chase the hype around new listings, others focus on more conservative assets. Gold prices have started showing signs of revival — the metal is traditionally viewed as a "safe haven" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Asian markets, meanwhile, remained within a range of moderate volatility. Despite a shaky start, they managed to avoid sharp declines, following a more confident end to trading on Wall Street. European futures are signaling a calm but cautious start.

A ticking tariff bomb

Investors are still keeping an eye on "D-day" — Donald Trump's planned statement on Wednesday, which he has termed "Liberation Day." Essentially, this involves a large-scale initiative to impose new import tariffs, both against strategic adversaries and traditional US allies.

The announcement ceremony is set for 8:00 PM GMT and will take place in the symbolic location of the White House Rose Garden. Although market participants are expecting specifics, real relief from uncertainty is not anticipated.

Rapid measures, harsh responses

Perhaps the most worrying detail is the lack of a negotiation phase. According to available information, tariff measures will be implemented immediately, sharply reducing the space for diplomatic maneuvers and, conversely, increasing the likelihood of a swift response from the affected countries.

This creates a foundation for heightened volatility in the markets in the coming days, from forex rates to stock indices. Analysts do not rule out sharp jumps and new panic sell-offs.

Tariff storm: metals, cars, and China under attack

The White House has already taken initial steps in implementing a tough trade strategy. Donald Trump imposed tariffs on key import categories — from aluminum and steel to automobiles. Additionally, he significantly raised tariffs on a wide range of Chinese products. These actions have sparked reactions in global markets, fueling fears of a trade confrontation that could paralyze global economic growth.

Economists sound the alarm: the threat of a full-scale trade war is becoming more real

Tensions between Washington and its key trading partners, including Beijing, threaten to move beyond diplomacy and into a phase of systemic conflict, which could hit global supply chains and slow down the recovery of the world economy.

Gold shines amid growing anxiety

Amid rising risks, investors are flocking to safe assets, particularly gold. The "yellow metal" is steadily reaching new historical highs, surpassing the psychological mark of $3000 per ounce.

Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen by 19%, continuing its steady upward trend following an outstanding 2024, when its value surged 27% — the best year for the precious metal in the past decade. This price increase reflects not only fears of geopolitical and economic shocks but also rising demand from central banks and large institutional players seeking to preserve capital amid instability.

Not gold, but a barometer of fear

In an environment where markets are fluctuating from conflicting signals — from tariff threats to unstable inflation and unclear interest rate outlooks — gold once again serves as a universal gauge of anxiety. Its rise reflects not only demand for stability but also how deeply concerns are embedded among investors.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold continues to rise as investors remain concerned about U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy and its impact on the global economy. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions serve as a key tailwind for the safe-haven asset. However, gold bulls should proceed with caution ahead of key tariff-related announcements.

Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has sparked concerns about potential stagflation. The drop in the Manufacturing PMI to 49 points to a contraction in business activity—an alarming signal for the economy. Meanwhile, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are also supporting gold demand, making the metal more attractive.

From a technical standpoint, yesterday's pullback from the all-time high stalled near the $3100 area, which is now acting as support. However, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) residing in overbought territory, a short-term consolidation or modest retracement may be expected before positioning for further upside.

A break below the $3100 level would open the door toward the weekly low around $3076, followed by a potential move to the breakout point at $3057. The downward trajectory could extend further to $3035 support, with the psychologically important $3000 level serving as a major barrier. A drop below this key level could give bears the upper hand.

Nonetheless, the path of least resistance for the precious metal remains upward, with some consolidation likely, as long as daily chart oscillators continue to hold firmly in positive territory.

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US Market News Digest for April 02

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Johnson & Johnson faced a serious setback when a judge rejected a $10 billion settlement over talc claims, causing the company's stock to plummet by 7.6%.

Market participants have to digest a series of economic data before Donald Trump's speech on tariffs. Investors are alert to his announcement as if waiting for an important premiere. Airline companies took a dive after analysts at Jefferies downgraded their ratings – and it seemed more like a crash than just a dip. Johnson & Johnson was also unlucky: a judge rejected the modest $10 billion settlement over the talc case, and the company's stock went downhill. Meanwhile, the US stock indices staged a true mixed parade: the Dow dipped by 0.03%, while the S&P 500 grew by 0.38%, and the Nasdaq surged by 0.87%.

Everyone is awaiting the moment when US President Donald Trump will finally reveal his tariff plans in the White House Rose Garden – on April 2, precisely at 4:00 PM Eastern Time. Investors are caught between hope and fear: there's a chance that new tariff surprises could slow the economy and ignite inflation. Even if Trump clarifies everything, he is unlikely to add much clarity to the markets: geopolitics, trade partners, and economic consequences still feel like reading tea leaves. More details here.

US stock indices closed mixed yesterday, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.38% and the Nasdaq by 0.87%, while the Dow slipped by 0.04%.

US benchmark stock indices staged a mixed performance yesterday: the S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, Nasdaq 100 added a robust 0.87%, but the Dow Jones seemed to take a pause, slightly declining by 0.04%.

Meanwhile, Asia woke up on a sour note: traders in the East took a defensive position in anticipation of Donald Trump's speech, during which he promised to present new reciprocal tariffs. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose for the first time in three days.

As European and US futures slid lower, the dollar remained flat, and gold hovered just below its historic peak, the entire world seemed to hold its breath. At 4:00 PM New York time, Trump is expected to announce his "liberating" tariffs, which he claims will take effect immediately. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee has already gloomily warned of a potential decline in consumer spending, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reminded that US tariffs could hurt international trade. In short, while the world prepares for "liberation," the markets are already trembling. More details here.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed resilience in the face of Trump's expected tariff announcements despite negative economic data and stagflation risks.

April and the second quarter on Wall Street began, to say the least, with doubts. Financial markets opened on an optimistic note today but quickly shifted to a bearish mood: markets dipped almost immediately after the opening. The cause was the release of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which came in below expectations – 49.0, weaker than the anticipated 49.8 and down from February's 50.3. Manufacturing activity worsened in March, but consumer prices kept rising for the second consecutive month. Investors started to quietly worry: lower activity, rising inflation, and weak employment – a perfect cocktail for discussions about stagflation.

The heavyweight stocks came to the rescue: Apple (+0.5%), Microsoft (+1.8%), and NVIDIA (+1.6%) helped lift the indices, reminding everyone that "mega-cap" is no mere word. These three giants account for nearly 20% of the S&P 500's market capitalization. As a result, eight out of the eleven sectors of the index closed in positive territory: leading the charge were consumer discretionary (+1.1%), communication services (+1.0%), and technology (+1.0%). Healthcare and finance weren't in the mood – they closed in the red. Treasury bonds, on the other hand, pleased investors: the yield on 10-year bonds dropped to 4.16%, while 2-year bonds fell to 3.86%. More details here.

Investors are eagerly awaiting concrete decisions on Trump's new tariffs, and U.S. markets are showing calm and resilience despite the threat of global economic instability.

While whispers circulate in the corridors of Washington about looming 20% universal tariffs that could bring the economy back to the spirit of the 1930s and shake the global market, the S&P 500 is showing remarkable resilience. It might seem like, ahead of America's Independence Day, the stock market should be shaking like a leaf, but it is calmly adjusting its tie. Why? The answer, as always, lies in belief – investors don't believe that Donald Trump will go to extremes. They think he won't jeopardize US economic growth for the sake of trade pressure. And as long as US GDP remains stable, nothing threatens the broad stock index.

Meanwhile, analysts from major financial institutions are lowering their forecasts but still remain optimistic: they believe that the S&P500 index will show growth by the end of the year. Yardeni Research expects a 6,000 level by the end of 2025 (down from 6,400), Societe Generale predicts 6,400 instead of 6,750, and Goldman Sachs forecasts 5,700 instead of 6,200. UBS Wealth Management, in the meantime, paints a scenario full of drama: first, a tariff nightmare, then a diplomatic happy ending. The second half of the year promises to be fantastically comfortable for S&P 500 growth. But is everything that rosy? What if other countries don't bow to the White House but instead redirect their exports to other regions? Then the US could find itself in a negative position. More details here.

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AUD/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the AUD/USD pair is showing positive momentum, rebounding from nearly a four-week low.

Support has come from the Reserve Bank of Australia's less "dovish" stance, with the central bank stating that returning inflation to the target level is its top priority. Additionally, optimism surrounding China's economy has been a key factor contributing to the Australian dollar's gains.

According to data released on Tuesday, China's manufacturing activity in March grew at the fastest pace in a year. On top of that, a better-than-expected business activity index in China, along with recent stimulus measures aimed at supporting economic recovery, have boosted the Australian dollar, which is considered a commodity-linked currency and a China proxy.

However, risks remain tied to tariffs and the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which could pressure the Australian dollar. Expectations of a possible RBA rate cut in May may also cap AUD/USD's upside potential.

At present, markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May. Therefore, traders should proceed cautiously and await today's comments from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding reciprocal tariffs, which could significantly impact Australia's export-driven economy.

From a technical perspective, if bulls manage to hold above the 0.6300 level, this could pave the way for further upside. After breaking above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair will encounter resistance at 0.6340. Clearing that level could open the door for a retest of the March high.

However, since the 14-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) remains above the 9-day EMA, the pair may lack sufficient bullish momentum—especially considering that oscillators on the daily chart are still neutral and have yet to cross into positive territory.

Therefore, it would be wise to wait for a clear signal from the oscillators before opening directional positions.

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USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the USD/CAD pair is trying to stop its previous fall, attempting to anchor above the 1.4300 level. The anticipated announcement on tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, expected during the North American session, is creating uncertainty, and traders are likely to stay on the sidelines, waiting to see how the market reacts.

The potential weakness of the Canadian dollar due to new U.S. tariffs is indeed a significant factor. However, the recent rise in oil prices—which traditionally supports the commodity-linked Canadian dollar—may help balance out the negative impact. Interestingly, expectations of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are also capping the growth of the U.S. dollar, creating a complex situation for the USD/CAD pair and restraining the bulls.

From a technical standpoint, support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is an important level to watch. However, before taking aggressive short positions, it would be prudent to wait for a sustained break and acceptance below the round 1.4300 level. A subsequent decline could drag the pair down toward last week's swing low near 1.4235, with vulnerability extending below the 1.4200 psychological mark. A decisive break below this area could act as a new trigger for sellers, especially since the RSI (Relative Strength Index) has just begun to shift into negative territory.

On the other hand, any further upward move will face resistance at the 50-day SMA and the 1.4350 level. A break above that could trigger a round of short-covering, allowing the pair to reclaim the 1.4400 handle. Further buying interest may open the way toward intermediate resistance near 1.4440–1.4445, with scope for additional gains toward the 1.4480 zone and the key psychological level of 1.4500 and beyond.

However, as long as oscillators remain below 50, the path of least resistance for the pair continues to point to the downside.

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BTC/USD Analysis. April 2nd. Bitcoin Is Also Afraid of Trump's Tariffs

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart is clear. After completing a bullish trend composed of five full waves, a downward corrective phase began, which is still in progress. Based on this, I did not—and still do not—expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

The news backdrop had been supporting Bitcoin thanks to a steady flow of headlines about new investments from institutional traders, various governments, and pension funds. However, Trump and his policies have caused investors to exit the market—no trend can rise indefinitely. The wave that began on January 20 does not resemble an impulsive one. Thus, we are dealing with a complex corrective structure that could take months to form. Internally, this first wave is quite intricate, but a five-wave a-b-c-d-e structure within it can be distinguished. If the current wave count is correct, we are now seeing the formation of an upward corrective wave, which in classical theory consists of three waves. Waves a and b appear to be complete.

The BTC/USD rate has stabilized, and the current wave count suggests further upward movement. But how strong might this growth be? Many in the market panic if Bitcoin drops by $10,000–$15,000. However, given Bitcoin's extreme volatility, such a move can occur in just a few days. The price fell $33,000 from its all-time high—and even that correction doesn't seem excessive enough to expect a fresh bullish trend.

Therefore, I anticipate a corrective wave or series of waves, after which the broader corrective structure will continue to develop.

At the moment, Bitcoin is consolidating, and the market is waiting. Some might view a drop to $80,000 as sufficient—but let me remind you of the period from November 2021 to November 2022, when Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $16,000. Back then, economists and crypto analysts also predicted continued growth and a target of $100,000, but Bitcoin lost nearly 80% of its value. Why couldn't a similar scenario unfold now?

That previous decline lasted a full year. This one has been unfolding for only 2.5 months. Trump may announce new global tariffs as soon as today, and under Donald Trump, Bitcoin tends to fall. It's quite symbolic that the decline began on January 20—Trump's inauguration day.

Given the above and the current wave structure, I believe the downtrend will continue.

General Conclusions

Based on the BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the current growth phase is over. All signs point toward a complex, multi-month correction. That's why I have previously advised against buying crypto—and now, even more so. A drop below the low of wave 4 indicates a transition into a downward trend phase, most likely of a corrective nature.

In this context, the best strategy is to look for selling opportunities. A short-term upward corrective wave may occur soon, during which new short positions can be considered with targets near $68,000 and possibly as low as $55,000.

Higher Timeframe Outlook

On the higher wave scale, a five-wave bullish structure is visible. We are now witnessing the beginning of a corrective or bearish wave structure, potentially marking a new downtrend.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex formations are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If there's no confidence in the market situation, it's better to stay out.Absolute certainty in market direction is never possible. Always use Stop Loss orders.
3. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US markets show resilience despite tariff concerns and economic weakness

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S&P 500

The US stock markets paused ahead of President Trump's anticipated tariff announcements.

The major indices ended the session mixed: the Dow Jones closed flat, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, trading within a 5,500–6,000 range and closing near 5,633 points.

The stock market opened the second quarter on an uncertain note. Key indices fluctuated around their previous closing levels as investors awaited today's tariff announcement while digesting early macroeconomic data.

Markets initially declined after the opening bell, with selling pressure increasing following the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 49.0 points, below the consensus estimate of 49.8 points and down from the previous 50.3-point reading. The report indicated a contraction in manufacturing activity in March, coupled with a sharp rise in prices for the second consecutive month.

The data added to growing market fears about economic slowdown and profit margin pressure, which were already amplified by trade-related uncertainty.

However, intraday buying in megacap stocks helped lift the broader market. Apple (AAPL $223.19, +$1.06, +0.5%), Microsoft (MSFT $382.19, +$6.80, +1.8%), and NVIDIA (NVDA $110.15, +$1.77, +1.6%)—together accounting for nearly 20 percent of the S&P 500 by market cap—were among the session's top contributors.

Eight of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 posted gains, led by consumer discretionary (+1.1%), communication services (+1.0%), and technology (+1.0%). Healthcare (-1.8%) and financials (-0.2%) were the only sectors to close lower.

US Treasuries finished stronger across the curve. The yield on the 10-year note fell by nine basis points to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield dropped five basis points to 3.86 percent.

Year-to-date index performance:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -1.3%

S&P 500: -4.2%

S&P Midcap 400: -5.9%

Russell 2000: -9.8%

Nasdaq Composite: -9.6%

Economic data highlights:

S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (March, Final): 50.2 points (previous 49.8 points)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (March): 49.0 points (consensus 49.8 points; previous 50.3 points)

The report points to a troubling mix of slowing activity, rising prices, and weakening employment, a combination likely to spark stagflation concerns.

JOLTS Job Openings (February): 7.568 million (previous reading was revised up to 7.762 million)

Construction Spending (February): +0.7% (consensus +0.4%; previous revised to -0.5% from -0.2%)

The weakness in private housing investment was concentrated in the multifamily segment.

On Wednesday, traders may get the following data:

7:00 AM ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications (previous -2.0%)

8:15 AM ET: ADP Employment Change (March, consensus: 120,000; previous: 77,000)

10:00 AM ET: Factory Orders (February, consensus: +0.4%; previous: +1.7%)

10:30 AM ET: Weekly Crude Oil Inventories (previous: -3.34 million barrels)

Energy Markets: Brent crude held steady at $74.30 per barrel. Despite signs of US economic deceleration, oil prices remained supported by geopolitical tension following President Trump's threats to strike Iran if it refuses to rejoin a nuclear agreement. Tehran has effectively declined to resume negotiations.

Conclusion: A rebound in US equities remains a possible scenario, particularly if the details of Trump's new tariff package bring greater clarity. Current price levels may offer attractive long-term entry points in the S&P 500 for investors willing to position ahead of policy resolution.

Additional insights by Mikhail Makarov:

https://www.instaforthtex.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

https://www.instaforex.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 02/04/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USDX and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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Forecast for EUR/USD on April 2, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the support zone at 1.0781–1.0797 but failed to rise to the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0857. On Wednesday morning, the pair returned to the 1.0781–1.0797 zone. A rebound from this zone could lead to a modest upward move, but trader activity has been low lately. A break and consolidation below this zone will increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.0734.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed upward wave only barely surpassed the previous high, while the most recent downward wave broke the previous low. This indicates a trend reversal to the bearish side. Although Donald Trump introduced new tariffs last week, causing bears to step back temporarily, it's likely that more tariffs will follow this week, potentially allowing bulls to mount a counterattack. However, the bulls are losing momentum day by day.

Tuesday's news failed to support either bulls or bears. The most important report in my view—inflation in the Eurozone—slowed to 2.2% y/y, while core inflation dropped to 2.4%. This gave bears a reason to continue pressing the euro, but the Eurozone unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, which is a positive sign for the euro. As a result, the euro avoided a sharp drop in the first half of the day.

In the U.S., the ISM Manufacturing PMI disappointed, and the JOLTS job openings report was also worse than expected. Despite all of this, neither side was able to create meaningful momentum—yesterday was simply a day of disappointments.

Donald Trump has yet to make any announcements regarding new tariffs, leaving traders on edge. The 1.0781–1.0797 zone remains a key decision point for trading strategy.

The pair showed a slight rebound on the 4-hour chart, but I still expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and further decline toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.0696 and the 38.2% level at 1.0575. A more aggressive drop in the euro is unlikely for now, but a 200-point decline would be well within reason. No divergence signals are currently forming on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 844 long positions and closed 5,256 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group has returned to bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. Total long positions now stand at 190,000, while shorts are at 124,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players had been reducing exposure to the euro, but for the past 7 weeks they've been cutting short positions and increasing longs. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to a widening interest rate spread. However, Trump's trade policies are becoming a more significant market-moving factor, as they could have a dovish impact on the Fed's approach and even trigger a recession in the U.S. economy.

News Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)

The April 2 calendar includes only one notable event, and its impact may be limited to the second half of the day. However, I'll reiterate: Trump can announce new tariffs at any moment.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

• Sell the pair on a rebound from the 1.0857 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0797 and 1.0734.
• Sell also if the pair closes below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone.
• Buy opportunities will emerge on a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone, with a target of 1.0857.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1214 to 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Update on US stock market on April 2: SP500 and NASDAQ regain their footing before crucial event

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Following yesterday's regular session, US stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.38%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.87%. The industrial Dow Jones dipped by 0.04%.

Asian indices declined today as traders took a wait-and-see approach ahead of President Donald Trump's announcement of severe tariffs. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose after a three-day decline, as traders weighed the likelihood of a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's policy. Futures for US and European stock indices opened today lower, which also signals risks of a sharp response to Trump's actions. The US dollar was little changed against major currencies, while gold traded just below its record high.

Discussions on Trump's plans to impose reciprocal tariffs are nearing completion, with his team reportedly still working out the size and scope of the new tariffs he is expected to announce today. This unpredictability has already shaken the markets, prompting economists to downgrade their global growth forecasts. Central banks have to factor in the potential inflationary impact of import costs. The tariffs will take effect immediately after the announcement at an event scheduled for 4:00 PM New York time.

Overall, the market saw a calm trading session, although there was some nervousness. Trump is planning to introduce so-called reciprocal tariffs and other levies, which he believes will be a "Day of Liberation"—a move expected to impact a broader area of global trade.

Meanwhile, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank Austan Goolsbee warned of the negative consequences of any slowdown in consumer spending or business investment due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. Governor of the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda also stated that US tariffs could have a significant impact on trade activity in affected countries.

However, some investors see an opportunity in the current situation. Moving some investments out of the US is a popular strategy. Trump's tariffs will open up huge investment opportunities in Europe. Managers at Goldman Sachs have even chosen the yen as the main hedging tool against a US recession and tariff-related risks.

As for commodities, the rally in the oil market observed last month has stalled, as traders prepare for the tariff announcement. Gold halted just one step away from its next historic high.

Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the index is still trading lower. The primary task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at 5,645. This will help continue the rally and open up the possibility for a move to the next level at 5,670. Another priority for the bulls will be controlling the 5,692 level, which would strengthen their position. If there is a downward movement due to reduced risk appetite, buyers must step in around 5,617. A breakout would quickly push the trading instrument back to 5,585 and open the way to 5,552.

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Forecast for GBP/USD on April 2, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued to move sideways on Tuesday. There is currently no dominance of either bulls or bears in the market—and this has been the case for a full month. The 1.2931 level is not strong, so it's not advisable to look for trading opportunities around it. A rebound from the 1.2865 level would allow for some expectation of a pound recovery, while a breakout below this level would indicate the end of the sideways range and the beginning of a new bearish trend.

The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the most recent upward wave did break the previous high. Thus, a bullish trend is still forming. Most traders remain reluctant to buy the U.S. dollar, regardless of economic data, as Donald Trump continues to impose new tariffs, which are expected to negatively impact U.S. and global economic growth in the future. For the bullish trend to shift into a bearish one, the pair would need to consolidate below 1.2865.

Tuesday's news background disappointed both bulls and bears. The UK Manufacturing PMI came in weak, ruling out hopes for significant GDP growth. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI was also weak, and the JOLTS report came in even lower. Trump made no announcements regarding new import tariffs, and traders continue to wait. As a result, the only conclusion that can be drawn right now is that the pair remains in a sideways range. It's better for traders to wait for this phase to end, as the market is currently lacking momentum.

New tariffs from Trump could trigger a decline in the dollar, but I wouldn't be too certain about that scenario anymore. The market has had enough time to assess the total volume of tariffs and their potential economic consequences. Most likely, this has already been priced in. Therefore, the dollar could continue to recover—but only if bears start taking action, which so far, they haven't.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair is still in a bullish trend. I do not expect a significant decline in the pound until the pair breaks below the ascending channel. A rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.2994 once again worked in favor of the dollar, resulting in a slight decline toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.2861. A bullish divergence in the CCI indicator supports the likelihood of a modest upward movement. Meanwhile, the hourly chart still shows a sideways market.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" trader category turned more bullish in the latest report. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,075, while short positions decreased by 1,806. Bears have lost their advantage in the market. The gap between long and short positions now stands at nearly 44,000 in favor of the bulls: 109,000 vs. 65,000.

In my opinion, the pound still faces downside risk, but recent events could prompt a long-term market reversal. Over the past 3 months, long positions have grown from 98,000 to 109,000, while short positions have decreased from 78,000 to 65,000. More notably, in the past 8 weeks, longs have grown from 59,000 to 109,000, while shorts fell from 81,000 to 65,000. And let me remind you—that's "8 weeks of Trump's leadership"...

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UK

• U.S. – ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC)

On Wednesday, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is unlikely to help break the current range. The news background may have minimal influence on market sentiment today—unless Donald Trump breaks his silence.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice

Selling the pair will be possible after a rebound from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.2931 and 1.2865, as the pair remains range-bound. Buying is possible after a rebound from the 1.2865 level, with targets at 1.2931 and 1.3003.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart, and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Markets May React to New U.S. Tariffs with Growth—But Under One Condition... (GBP/USD Downside and USD/CAD Upside Possible)

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The day Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day" has arrived. Markets are bracing for the U.S. to introduce comprehensive and large-scale tariffs on its trade partners and potential retaliatory measures from those countries.

The White House has stated that the new tariffs will be implemented immediately. How prepared are financial markets for this?

Let's begin with the stock markets. U.S., European, and Asian indices have recently been trading sideways, under pressure from the looming decision by the U.S. to impose high and far-reaching tariffs on virtually all imported goods. While markets have already priced in much of this news, it's still unclear whether this move will trigger a major rally—given that investors often act in advance—or if we'll see a broad sell-off instead.

The Cryptocurrency Market

This is an entirely separate story, primarily disconnected from reality, as these assets lack intrinsic value. Their rises and falls are driven mainly by speculative market sentiment around global events. Overall, market sentiment—whether positive or negative—is key for crypto.

The Forex Market

Here, things are also relatively "dull." The U.S. dollar has remained stable for four straight weeks against a basket of major currencies amid expectations surrounding Trump's new tariff plans. Uncertainty over how the 47th president will act and what the impact on the U.S. economy will be—particularly the government debt market, which heavily influences dollar movement—continues to dominate sentiment.

Commodities have also been moving sideways overall. Participants are responding to key OPEC+ developments and geopolitical events while reacting to the U.S. president's constantly shifting rhetoric.

An interesting point is that market participants have recently been ignoring major economic data releases in the U.S. and other key global regions. Even today, the focus will be on the ADP private-sector employment report from the U.S.

Will it significantly influence the dollar and U.S. stock markets?

According to the consensus forecast, the ADP figure is expected to jump to 118,000 in March, up from 77,000 in February. That would typically be a strong signal for the dollar and U.S. equities. However, given today's focus on tariffs, the main event overshadows all reports—even important ones—. Nonetheless, the improved U.S. labor market data will not go unnoticed by investors. If they don't hear anything new or negative regarding tariffs, investors may react by buying risk assets and the dollar—driven by relief and clarity over the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy.

I believe there is a strong chance of a positive outcome, especially if Trump doesn't announce anything new if the actual tariffs are slightly lower than anticipated—something that remains possible—or if they align with previously presented plans.

Forecast of the Day

GBP/USD

The pair has been trading sideways since the start of the month, reflecting trader uncertainty about the impact of Trump's new tariffs. However, today, there's a chance the dollar could receive support, potentially pushing the pair out of its range and down toward 1.2780. A potential entry point is around 1.2895.

USD/CAD

This pair is also in a sideways range. A positive market response to the tariffs could trigger growth toward 1.4400. A potential entry point is around 1.4328.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Market Needs Proof

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It's too late to be afraid. Rumors are circulating in the market that the White House may implement a universal 20% levy instead of reciprocal tariffs—pushing the average import duty to its highest level since the 1930s and triggering a global economic shock. Yet, the S&P 500 remains surprisingly calm and resilient on the eve of America's "Liberation Day." Why? And how will the broad stock index react to the event of the year?

There are several explanations for the S&P 500's resilience. Investors are confident that Donald Trump won't go too far. He is unlikely to pursue a tariff policy so aggressive that it would threaten U.S. economic growth. Investors must see more signs of a cooling U.S. GDP to continue selling the broader index. Finally, greater clarity on import tariffs will reduce uncertainty, which is good for stocks.

S&P 500 Trends and Forecasts

It's no surprise that while major banks and firms are lowering their forecasts for the S&P 500, they still expect the index to rise by year-end. Yardeni Research now sees a target of 6000 by the end of 2025, down from 6400; Societe Generale forecasts 6400 instead of 6750; and Goldman Sachs lowered its outlook to 5700 from 6200.

UBS Wealth Management believes the worst will happen in the short term, but tariffs will gradually be rolled back by midyear amid negotiations and concessions from other countries. This would create ideal conditions for a renewed uptrend in the S&P 500 between July and December. That scenario seems plausible—but what if other nations don't bend to the White House's demands? They could redirect exports elsewhere, with the U.S. ultimately suffering.

Indeed, the experience of Trump's first trade war with China shouldn't be used as a template. Back then, Washington's allies were largely supportive, and fiscal stimulus helped supercharge the U.S. economy just before the tariffs were implemented. A key difference now is the significantly higher spike in trade policy uncertainty compared to eight years ago.

U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Index Trends

According to the U.S. administration, tariffs will take effect the day they're announced. The S&P 500's reaction will largely depend on the scale of those tariffs. Only across-the-board 20% levies are likely to shake the index. On the other hand, reciprocal tariffs targeting a group of countries could trigger a rebound in U.S. equities as investors rush to buy the dip.

From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 continues to form a Double Bottom pattern on the daily chart. A breakout above the 5670 resistance level would provide an opportunity to build long positions opened during the drop toward the lower end of the 5500–5790 trading range. Conversely, if bulls fail to break through fair value resistance, it would signal weakness.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 2

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Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding their ground ahead of a major event that could reshape the global trading landscape. Another failed attempt by Bitcoin to settle above the $85,500 level led to a sell-off, with the asset now trading around $84,000. Ethereum hasn't fared much better: after briefly climbing above $1,930 during yesterday's U.S. session, it has pulled back to around $1,859.

It's difficult to predict how the cryptocurrency market will react to today's news from the U.S., but it's safe to say that no good surprises are expected. President Donald Trump is set to announce the most extensive trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. in the past century—measures that could overturn the post-war global trade system in one move and introduce unpredictable economic risks.

If measures such as steep import tariffs and export restrictions are implemented, the consequences for the global economy could be severe. These actions could heighten volatility in the cryptocurrency market, where investor confidence plays a crucial role. As a result, Bitcoin and other altcoins may face selling pressure as participants move to protect their capital. In this new reality, alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, may become less attractive.

This could severely impact risk assets, starting with the U.S. stock market, which, as you likely know, has recently shown a strong correlation with the crypto market. So, if equities tumble, expect an active sell-off in crypto.

For this reason, it's best to remain calm today and respond to developments cautiously, hoping that Trump's tariff policies will be less aggressive than previously suggested.

For the intraday strategy, I will continue to focus on major dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, banking on the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend—which, for now, remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point around $84,400, targeting a rise to $85,500. At $85,500, I plan to exit long positions and immediately sell on the pullback.

Before entering a breakout trade, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario 2: If there is no strong downside breakout, I will also buy Bitcoin from the lower boundary at $83,000, targeting a reversal back to $84,400 and $85,500.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I plan to sell Bitcoin at $83,800, targeting a drop to $82,800. I will exit short positions at $82,800 and switch to long on a rebound. Before entering a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: If there's no sustained breakout, I will also sell Bitcoin from the upper boundary at $84,400, targeting a pullback to $83,800 and $82,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum at $1,870, targeting a rise to $1,909. I'll exit longs and sell on the pullback from this level. Before buying, confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario 2: I will also buy Ethereum from the lower boundary at $1,840 if there is no breakout to the downside, targeting a move back to $1,870 and $1,909.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum at $1,840, aiming for a decline to $1,808. I'll close the shorts and switch to buying on a bounce from this area. Before selling, confirm that the 50-day moving average is above the price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: If there is no breakout, I will also sell Ethereum from the upper boundary at $1,870, targeting a move to $1,840 and $1,808.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 2. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.27 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar. Throughout the day, I did not encounter any other suitable entry points.

Weak U.S. Manufacturing PMI data put pressure on the dollar and helped the Japanese yen strengthen. The PMI index, which reflects business activity in the manufacturing sector, came in below analysts' expectations, raising concerns about the outlook for U.S. economic growth. This, in turn, reduced the dollar's appeal. The yen, traditionally considered a safe-haven currency, benefited from the situation. Additional support for the yen comes from expectations of a possible shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

Today's relatively weak report on Japan's monetary base had little impact on the yen's exchange rate against the dollar. However, that does not mean the country's economy is stable. Many economists note a slowdown in growth, which could trigger more market volatility. Still, short-term fluctuations in the yen may be tied to global factors, such as changes in U.S. trade policy toward several developed nations. We'll get more details later today, so be prepared for increased market volatility.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 150.03 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 150.60 (thicker green line). Near 150.60, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip reversal). The best time to buy the pair is during pullbacks or significant dips. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if the price tests the 149.69 level twice in a row while the MACD is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside and trigger a bullish reversal. A rise toward 150.03 and 150.60 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after breaking below 149.69 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 149.07, where I intend to exit short positions and open immediate longs (expecting a 20–25 pip bounce). Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and starting to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if the price tests 150.03 twice in a row, with the MACD in overbought territory. This will limit upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal. A decline toward 149.69 and 149.07 may follow.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.