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Forex forecast 11/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Oil, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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EUR/USD Forecast on December 11, 2025

.On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair first rebounded from the 1.1645–1.1655 level, but soon after closed above this zone and showed strong growth amid the FOMC meeting. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718. A rebound from 1.1718 will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.1656. Consolidation above 1.1718 will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1795.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially turned "bullish." It is still difficult to call it strong, but in recent months bulls have consistently shown weakness. The Fed's monetary easing has given them additional strength, while bears currently cannot rely on support from the ECB.

On Wednesday, the market could have reacted to the FOMC meeting in various ways, but ultimately chose the most logical one. I remind you that regardless of the FOMC's monetary policy outlook for 2026, "dovish" decisions were made in December, October, and September. Meanwhile, the ECB maintains the status quo. In my view, the US dollar should also have shown a decline in September, October, and November — even just from the standpoint of Fed policy. The market also had other reasons to sell the dollar during those months, yet selling began only in late November. But better late than never. Yesterday, Jerome Powell stated that the FOMC does not intend to lower rates again at upcoming meetings because inflation in the US continues to accelerate. The Federal Reserve has done everything possible to save the labor market, lowering rates by a total of 0.75%. Next, attention must shift back to inflation and stabilizing it around 2%, which is still far away. However, important labor market and inflation reports will be released next week in the US, and they may adjust the Fed's plans and market expectations.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1829. A consolidation below 1.1649–1.1680 will again favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 38.2% corrective level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports resumed after the shutdown, but for now the available data is outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 250,000, while short positions amount to 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players had been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they may cause numerous problems with long-term and structural consequences for the US. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, analysts fear a recession in the US economy, as well as a loss of Federal Reserve independence under Trump's pressure and in light of Jerome Powell's planned resignation in May next year.

News Calendar for the US and the EU:

United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 11, the economic calendar contains just one entry, and it is completely insignificant. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if a rebound occurs from the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1645–1.1656. Buy trades could have been opened with a target of 1.1718 upon closing above the 1.1645–1.1656 zone. These buy trades can be kept open today. New buy positions — upon closing above 1.1718 — may aim for 1.1795–1.1802.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

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Why EUR continues to rise against USD

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Discussions regarding the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates rather than lower them have completely overturned market expectations for further monetary easing.

However, a number of European officials, including Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, were quick to dispel such talks. Villeroy stated that the European Central Bank has no grounds for an imminent interest rate hike, as it is likely to keep borrowing costs unchanged at the upcoming meeting next week.

The head of the Bank of France noted that it would likely be prudent to maintain interest rates at the current favorable level while remaining flexible and open to future meetings when discussing the monetary policy decision scheduled for December 18. He added that, as the current situation indicates, there are no grounds to expect a rate increase in the near future, contrary to some recent rumors and assumptions.

Such statements are generally aimed at calming the markets and preventing unwanted euro appreciation, which could negatively impact the export competitiveness of European companies. The ECB appears to intend to adopt a wait-and-see approach, assessing the impact of already implemented stimulus measures on the eurozone economy. At the same time, discussions about possible changes in monetary policy signal divisions within the ECB Governing Council. Hawks advocate for a tighter stance, while doves emphasize the need to support economic growth, especially given the ongoing uncertainties in the global economy.

Villeroy's comments came after board member Isabel Schnabel stated that she is confident that the ECB's next move will be an interest rate hike.

Yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde also spoke, indicating that she may refresh forecasts regarding monetary policy and the economy in December. In addition to the new forecasts, Lagarde will likely provide a more detailed justification for the ECB's position. Investors will closely monitor any hints regarding how the ECB assesses the current economic situation and which factors will be most significant in future decision-making. Particular attention will be paid to comments about the trajectory of inflation and economic growth prospects.

A scenario in which the ECB begins to raise rates would pose a significant challenge for the European economy. Higher interest rates could negatively affect investment, consumption, and economic growth rates. Additionally, this could lead to euro appreciation and a reduction in the competitiveness of European companies in the global market. However, it is important to remember that forecasts are merely projections. The economic situation can change rapidly, and the ECB will need to adapt its policy to new conditions.

Currently, the markets have almost fully priced in the absence of a rate cut in 2026, and the number of analysts expecting the ECB to begin raising rates is rapidly increasing.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers need to focus on reclaiming the level of 1.1710. Achieving this will open the way for a test at 1.1725. From there, they could aim for 1.1750, although doing so without support from major players may prove challenging. The ultimate target will be the peak at 1.1777. If the trading instrument declines, I expect significant actions from major buyers around the 1.1675 level. If there is no activity there, it may be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1650 or to open long positions from 1.1615.

Concerning the technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. This will allow them to target 1.3420, above which a breakthrough may be quite difficult. The further target will be around 1.3440. Should the pair decline, bears will attempt to take control at the 1.3350 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could significantly undermine bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3320 with the potential to reach 1.3285.

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GBP/USD Forecast on December 11, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294 and consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362. Thus, the upward movement may continue today if the price rebounds from this zone from above, aiming for 1.3425. Consolidation below the 1.3352–1.3362 level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3294.

The wave structure turned "bullish" two weeks ago. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend remains "bullish" at this time. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but bears have fully priced it in — and the news background in the US also leaves much to be desired. Bulls are finding it difficult to continue their attacks, but their position is currently stronger than that of the bears. We can declare the end of the "bullish" trend only if the price falls below 1.3294.

The news background on Wednesday was not as straightforward as it might have seemed. The FOMC Committee made the expected decision to ease monetary policy by another 0.25%, but at the same time made it clear that the beginning of 2026 will be characterized by maintaining the current interest rate level. Moreover, throughout 2026 the FOMC plans only one additional easing, and Jerome Powell stated at the press conference that any further rate change will depend on inflation. In other words, the Federal Reserve has done everything possible to stop the decline in the US labor market, and now the focus shifts to inflation, which has been rising throughout the second half of 2025. Thus, the next easing of monetary policy should not be expected until inflation slows below 2.7–2.8%, when the Fed is confident that the indicator is on a downward trajectory. This information suggests that next year the Fed's policy will be neutral, while a "dovish" stance would be more appropriate for further weakening of the US dollar. Next week, the Bank of England will hold its last meeting of 2025 and will likely lower the interest rate as well. The market's and the pound's reaction to this event will answer the question of whether the "bullish" trend will remain until the end of the year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the level of 1.3369. A rebound from this level will favor the US dollar and a moderate decline toward 1.3140. Consolidation above 1.3435 would allow for expectations of further growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. No new emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less "bullish" in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The current ratio between longs and shorts is effectively 82,000 versus 102,000. However, I remind you that this data is from mid-October. The situation may now be entirely different.

In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the US currency is in demand, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to continue easing monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Thus, if the Bank of England may lower rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may not be any better for it.

News Calendar for the US and the UK:

United States – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).

On December 11, the economic calendar contains only one entry, a completely secondary one. The news background will not affect market sentiment on Thursday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Sell positions can be opened today if the price closes below the 1.3352–1.3362 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3294. Buy positions could have been opened upon a rebound from 1.3294 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3352–1.3362. These trades may be kept open today with a target of 1.3425 until a close below 1.3352.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on December 11, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, from the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3378 – the 5-period EMA (thin red line). From this line, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the target of 1.3400 – a historical resistance level (blue dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• Volumes – down
• Candlestick analysis – down
• Trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• Weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: a downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:From the level of 1.3378 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.3316 – the 8-period EMA (thin blue line). From this line, the price may possibly rebound upward toward the target of 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 11, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1672 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• Volumes – down
• Candlestick analysis – down
• Trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• Weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: a downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:On Thursday, from the level of 1.1694 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward the target of 1.1664 – the 5-period EMA (thin red line). When testing this line, the price may rebound upward toward the target of 1.1717 – the 38.2% retracement level (blue dotted line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

#USDX still continues its bearish bias today.

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[#USDX]

With all technical indicators condition which indicating the weakness, then #USDX has the potential to decline toward its nearest support level today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 99.47

2. Resistance. 1 : 99.05

3. Pivot : 98.80

4. Support. 1 : 98.38

5. Support. 2 : 98.13

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price breaks down and closes below 98.38, it is likely to continue its decline to 98.13.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 98.13 is broken, then it could test the level at 97.71.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is restrained if #USDX strengthens and breaks above 99.47.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 98.84

EMA(200): 99.00

RSI(14) : 48.32

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight during the U.S. session, the following economic data will be released:

US - Unemployment Claims - 20:30 WIB

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 01:01

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Nasdaq 100 Index has the potential to continue its bearish bias today

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[Nasdaq 100 Index]

With all technical indicators condition showing weakness in the NDX, such as the Death Cross formation and the RSI(14) being in the Neutral-Bearish level, sellers are quite dominant in the Nasdaq 100 Index today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 26037.7

2. Resistance. 1 : 25904.1

3. Pivot : 25700.9

4. Support. 1 : 25567.1

5. Support. 2 : 25364.1

Tactical Scenario:

Pressure Zone: If the price of #NDX breaks down and closes below 25700.9, there is potential for it to continue declining to 25567.1.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 25567.1 is broken, then #NDX could test the level at 25364.1.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The downside bias is contained if the price of #NDX breaks above 26037.7.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 25604.1

EMA(200): 25614.8

RSI(14) : 33.05

Economic News Release Schedule:

Tonight during the U.S. session, the following economic data will be released:

US - Unemployment Claims - 20:30 WIB

US - Trade Balance - 20:30 WIB

US - Final Wholesale Inventories m/m - 22:00 WIB

US - Natural Gas Storage - 22:30 WIB

US - 30-y Bond Auction - 01:01

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Fed's triple support fuels S&P 500 rally

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The market got what it wanted. The Fed executed a hawkish cut, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% and signaling a pause in the cycle of monetary easing. However, the central bank did not close the door on further easing. Moreover, Jerome Powell's emphasis on labor market weakness and the Fed's decision-making dependence on data make monetary expansion in 2026 quite likely. This was well received by US stock indices, with the S&P 500 registering its strongest reaction to an FOMC meeting since March, while the Russell 2000 reached a new record high.

S&P 500's Reaction to Fed Meetings

The stock market benefited from a triple advantage provided by the Fed. Not only did the central bank raise its GDP forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3% and lower inflation estimates from 3% to 2.6%, but it also did not rule out further monetary easing. Jerome Powell spoke about productivity growth driven by artificial intelligence technologies. According to the Fed chair, the employment declines due to AI are not fully felt yet; otherwise, jobless claims would be rising substantially faster.

The acceleration of the economy against the backdrop of slowing inflation creates a kind of Goldilocks environment for US stocks. According to Navellier & Associates, when the Fed lowers rates and the S&P 500 is within 2% of record highs, it has risen 100% of the time over the next 12 months.

The hawkish rate cut followed by a dovish surprise from Jerome Powell led to a decline in Treasury yields. For a long time, the broad stock index has ignored the rally in Treasury rates, but this could not continue indefinitely. The S&P 500 would either fall, or bond yields would. Fortunately, investors chose the latter option.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and US Treasury Yields

In the latest FOMC forecasts, there is one act of monetary expansion projected for 2026, whereas the futures market is banking on two. Everything will depend on the data regarding the American economy. However, the lack of a safety cushion in terms of expectations for further decreases in the federal funds rate may make the S&P 500 vulnerable to sell-offs in technology stocks.

Thus, the disappointing results from Oracle, which did not meet Wall Street's expectations, echoed in a drop in S&P 500 futures. It is likely that the broad stock index will open lower on December 11. Nonetheless, retail investors, who have acclimated to buying the dips, only need this. They are eagerly awaiting the Christmas rally in the US stock market, and a pullback in the broad stock index would present an excellent opportunity to purchase at a lower price.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the price consolidating above fair value at 6,845, with bulls in control of the situation. As long as the market trades above this important level, the focus should remain on buying the broad stock index, targeting the levels of 7,000 and 7,100.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Prices Return to Growth

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Yesterday, gold prices rose for the third consecutive day after the Federal Reserve announced the widely anticipated rate cut. Silver also soared to record highs. The price of gold increased by 0.5% and approached the mark of $4,248 per ounce, as treasury yields and the dollar declined following the last FOMC meeting of the year.

The US central bank lowered interest rates for the third meeting in a row, maintaining the probability of only one rate cut in 2026. It is worth noting that the Fed's dovish stance favorably impacts precious metals, which typically benefit from low interest rates since they do not pay interest.

Despite the cautious stance of the Fed, investors seem to interpret this as a signal for further monetary easing in the future, which has spurred demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and currency instability. Given the ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide and the uncertainty around economic growth prospects, the appeal of gold as a safe asset is only increasing.

In addition to gold, silver is also showing impressive dynamics, soaring to record heights. Silver's dual role as a precious metal and an industrial commodity makes it particularly attractive in the current economic environment. On one hand, like gold, silver serves as a protective asset during periods of economic uncertainty. On the other hand, rising demand for silver in industries such as solar energy and electronics supports its price.

Experts predict that the rally in precious metals could continue into next year, especially if the Fed maintains its dovish monetary policy. However, it is essential to remember that the precious metals market can be volatile, and investors should exercise caution when making investment decisions.

This year, gold has appreciated by more than 60%, while silver has more than doubled, with both metals showing their best annual performance since 1979. This rapid growth has been supported by active purchases from central banks and capital flows from government bonds and currencies. According to the World Gold Council, investment volumes in gold-backed exchange-traded funds have increased every month this year, except for May.

Buyers need to target the nearest resistance at $4,249. This will allow them to aim for $4,304, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,372. In the event of a drop in gold prices, bears will try to take control at $4,186. If they succeed, a breakout below this level will deal a significant blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,126, with the potential to reach $4,062.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Results of December FOMC Meeting

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The US dollar found itself under pressure again after representatives of the Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate for the third consecutive time and maintained their forecast for only one more rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to reduce the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The committee also made minor adjustments to its statement, indicating greater uncertainty about when the next rate cut might occur. This put pressure on the US dollar, although not as significantly as many traders had anticipated.

While the rate cut was expected, it sparked a wave of discussion among analysts. There are concerns that further easing of monetary policy could lead to heightened inflation, which, despite the Fed's efforts, continues to remain above the target level of 2%. Some experts believe that a more cautious approach to rate cuts would have been wiser, as two Fed officials stated after the meeting. President of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Jeff Schmid, and President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Austan Goolsbee, both advocated for keeping rates unchanged.

Nonetheless, the Fed maintains that a modest rate cut is necessary to support economic growth amid slowing labor market momentum.

In a post-meeting conversation with journalists, Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed has taken sufficient measures to strengthen the economy despite employment threats, while keeping interest rates at a sufficiently high level to continue applying pressure on prices. He stated that further normalization of their policy should help stabilize the labor market and enable inflation to return to a downward trend towards 2%.

When asked whether a rate reduction was a necessary condition, Powell avoided a direct answer but added that he does not consider changes in rates as a baseline scenario.

Currently, investors and traders have adjusted their forecasts for interest rate cuts next year from three to two. The disagreements and forecasts presented on Wednesday highlight the debates among policymakers regarding what poses a greater threat to the US economy: weakness in the labor market or persistent inflation.

The current unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, up from 4.1%. Prices, according to the Fed's preferred inflation measure, have increased by 2.8% year-over-year as of September, significantly above the central bank's target of 2%.

In their new economic projections, officials indicate one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. However, the outlook for interest rates remains highly contentious. Seven officials expressed support for maintaining rates at their current level throughout 2026, while eight supported at least two rate cuts. The Fed also raised its economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from the previously anticipated 1.8%. They predict inflation to decrease to 2.4% next year from 2.6%.

The decision to lower interest rates exerted pressure on the dollar.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the level of 1.1710. Achieving this will allow them to target a test at 1.1725. From there, they could aim for 1.1750, although doing so without support from major players could prove challenging. The ultimate target will be the peak at 1.1777. In the event of a decline, I expect significant action from major buyers around the 1.1675 level. If there is no activity there, it would be wise to wait for a new low at 1.1650 or to open long positions from 1.1615.

For the current technical outlook for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at 1.3390. This will enable them to target 1.3420, above which breaking through may be quite difficult. The further target will be the area around 1.3440. Should the pair decline, bears will attempt to take control at the 1.3350 level. If successful, a breakdown of this range could significantly undermine bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a low of 1.3320 with the potential to reach 1.3285.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.63 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the Japanese yen. The Fed's decision aligned with the expectations of many analysts. The dollar's weakening after this news was immediate. Investors redirected their assets toward currencies with higher yields, leading to an increase in demand for the yen and, consequently, strengthening its position. Given that the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates next week, the decline of the USD/JPY pair seemed entirely understandable.

Today, the BSI Business Conditions Index for large manufacturers in Japan was released, showing growth and exceeding economists' forecasts. However, this did not provide strong support for the yen. Considering that a significant portion of yesterday's sell-off has already been priced in, be very cautious with sales. Despite the Fed's dovish stance, the dollar is relatively comfortable against the Japanese yen, which could spark a new wave of growth in USD/JPY.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.25 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 156.61 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.61, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.74 twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.25 and 156.61.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 155.74 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.29 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and buy immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from this level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.25 twice while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 155.74 and 155.29.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3318 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose by more than 30 pips.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the British pound. The Fed's decision to cut rates was anticipated. In justifying their decision, Fed officials cited the slowdown in labor market growth. Immediately after this, the British pound showed strong growth, continuing its bullish run against the US dollar. The strengthening of the pound is associated with expectations that the Bank of England, unlike the Fed, may maintain a restrictive monetary stance in the near future.

Today, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will speak in the first half of the day. His statements are expected to clarify the BoE's future monetary regulatory strategy. Given recent discussions of possible rate cuts by the BoE, traders and investors will pay particular attention to his analysis of the UK's economic situation, considering the latest data on inflation and the labor market. A detailed examination of his words will allow market participants to form a more complete picture of the prospects for the British economic system and possible scenarios for the development of monetary policy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3373 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the level of 1.3399 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3399, I intend to exit the market and sell immediately in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry level. Expectations of strong pound growth can only arise after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3354 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3373 and 1.3399.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3354 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3329 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 20-25 pips from this level. Sellers of the pound will show their strength in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of 1.3373 occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.3354 and 1.3329.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1645 came at a moment when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upwards from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips.

The day before, the Federal Open Market Committee voted, with a majority (9 to 3), to lower the key interest rate by 0.25%, establishing a target range of 3.5%-3.75%. This action resulted in a weakening of the US dollar and a strengthening of the euro. Proponents of monetary policy easing insisted on the need to stimulate the economy amid a slowdown in labor-market growth. However, the long-term effects of this decision remain unclear. Many experts hold different views on the effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy and the potential risks they entail. In particular, there are doubts that the modest rate cut and the launch of a bond-buying program will significantly impact the labor market or investment and consumer activity. Meanwhile, some experts believe this will help avoid an economic downturn and support growth amid global instability.

Regarding today's data, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro's direction. The upcoming unemployment report in Italy is not expected to substantially influence market sentiment. If the unemployment rate exceeds forecasts, it may raise concerns about economic growth prospects and, consequently, weaken the euro. On the other hand, positive data could strengthen the position of the European currency.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at a price around 1.1697 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1727. At 1.1727, I intend to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1681 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1697 and 1.1727.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1681 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1697 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1681 and 1.1655.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 11: S&P 500 and NASDAQ navigate headwinds

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Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped by 1.05%.

The rally in the stock market, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, has come to a halt as disappointing results from Oracle Corp. exerted pressure on tech stocks. Investors are also reassessing their positions in light of the reality of a more cautious approach to future rate cuts.

Oracle's earnings report, which fell short of expectations, raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in Oracle's shares triggered a chain reaction, affecting other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Investors fear that current interest rates, despite the potential for future cuts, are already negatively impacting corporate earnings, particularly in interest-sensitive sectors like technology.

Futures for the Nasdaq 100 dropped by more than 1.5%, and the sell-off of tech stocks in Asia neutralized earlier gains in the regional stock index. S&P 500 futures fell by 0.8%. Shares of Oracle, whose fate is closely tied to the AI boom, plummeted by more than 10% in after-hours trading in the US after second-quarter cloud service sales came in slightly below analyst estimates.

As noted earlier, the Fed lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time, and Chairman Jerome Powell expressed optimism about the strengthening economy as the inflationary impact of Trump's tariff policy eases. This marked the first instance since 2019 in which three representatives voted against the monetary policy decision, with opinions divided across the political spectrum. The Fed chair also suggested that the central bank has taken sufficient measures to stabilize the labor market while keeping interest rates high enough to continue exerting pressure on prices. He emphasized the importance of upcoming economic reports, advising caution when assessing labor market data due to technical distortions arising from the government shutdown and data outages.

In Japan, demand for bonds reached its highest level since 2020. Yields across the curve hit multi-year highs amid renewed concerns about fiscal policy and rising expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its upcoming meeting next week.

In the commodities market, oil prices were in focus after the US seized a sanctioned tanker off the coast of Venezuela, deterring further supplies from the South American country and raising the risk of conflict.

Turning to the technical analysis of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This will help the index gain ground and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,854. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,874, which will strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward movement amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,819. A break below that level would quickly drive the trading instrument back to $6,792 and open the way to $6,772.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 11

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Bitcoin failed to hold above $94,000 yesterday, while Ethereum is once again headed towards $3,000.

This is mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's mixed stance. Recall that yesterday the interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points, which positively affected the cryptocurrency market. The Fed also announced a bond-buying program, which ostensibly weakens the dollar and should help the cryptocurrency market. However, the central bank published a forecast expecting only one rate cut next year and one in 2027. This is problematic for risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

This ambiguity in forecasts prompts investors to exercise caution. On one hand, lower rates and a bond-buying program are undeniably positive factors that increase liquidity in the system and weaken the dollar, which traditionally supports the growth of cryptocurrency prices. On the other hand, the limited number of anticipated rate cuts in the future indicates a slower pace of monetary easing than market participants might have hoped. Moreover, the Fed's economic forecast may signal the central bank's confidence in the resilience of the US economy, reducing the need for more aggressive monetary easing. This, in turn, supports the dollar's position and exerts pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum.

In this situation, investors must balance between short-term positive signals and long-term prospects. This may be why we are witnessing corrections in the cryptocurrency market, where attempts at growth are followed by declines. For further sustainable growth, Bitcoin and Ethereum will require either a clearer signal from the Fed regarding readiness for more aggressive easing or the emergence of other drivers, such as positive news.

I will proceed by leveraging any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bull market in the medium term, which remains intact.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $90,500, targeting growth to the level of $92,400. At around $92,400, I plan to exit the purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario 2: Buying Bitcoin can also occur from the lower boundary of $89,600 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back to the levels of $90,500 and $92,400.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $89,600, targeting a drop to $87,700. At around $87,700, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario 2: Selling Bitcoin can also occur from the upper boundary of $90,500 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back to $89,600 and $87,700.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,222, targeting growth to the level of $3,320. At around $3,320, I plan to exit the purchases and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.
• Scenario 2: Buying Ethereum can also occur from the lower boundary of $3,179 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back to $3,222 and $3,320.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,179, targeting a drop to $3,110. At around $3,110, I plan to exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.
• Scenario 2: Selling Ethereum can also occur from the upper boundary of $3,222 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back to $3,179 and $3,110.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 11. The Pound Returns to Growth

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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.3316 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The breakout and subsequent retest of 1.3316 provided a buying opportunity for the pound, but the pair did not reach significant growth. In the second half of the day, another false breakout at 1.3320 again allowed entry into the market, driving the pair up by more than 30 pips. Active selling from 1.3352 led to a rapid decline of more than 20 pips in the pound, but then the bulls took over.

To Open Long Positions on GBP/USD:

The news that the Federal Reserve does not plan to actively lower interest rates next year, while simultaneously beginning to purchase short-term bonds starting December 12, has left traders somewhat confused. However, given the trend toward a weaker dollar, the pound continued to rise along the trend. Today, in the first half of the day, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak, but given that there is little time left before the central bank's meeting, it is unlikely he will comment on interest rate prospects. In the event of a larger correction of the pair following yesterday's growth, I expect the first signs of buyers around the support level of 1.3352. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a good opportunity to open long positions with the aim of further growth toward the resistance level of 1.3389 established yesterday. A breakout and retest of this range from above will increase the chances of GBP/USD strengthening, leading to the liquidation of sellers' stop orders and providing a suitable entry point for long positions, with a possible exit towards 1.3416. The furthest target will be the 1.3440 area, where I plan to take profits. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying at 1.3352, pressure on the pair will intensify, leading to a reversal of yesterday's gains and a move towards the next support level at 1.3320. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be a suitable condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from the low at 1.3287, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30-35 pips.

To Open Short Positions on GBP/USD:

Sellers of the pound faced another defeat yesterday, but not everything is straightforward. The Fed's mixed position could, at any time, turn in favor of the dollar, leading to a market reversal. If the pair continues to rise, I expect the first signs of bears only around the resistance level of 1.3389 established yesterday. Only the formation of a false breakout there will prompt selling of the pound, with the target being a move down to the support level of 1.3352. A breakout and retest of this range from below will deliver a more significant blow to buyer positions, leading to the liquidation of stop orders and opening a path to 1.3320, where moving averages favor the bulls. The furthest target will be the 1.3287 area, where I will take profits. If GBP/USD moves up with the trend and there is no active bearish action at 1.3389, buyers will have a good opportunity to continue developing the bullish trend, potentially leading to a surge towards 1.3416. I plan to open short positions there only on a false breakout. If there is no downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a bounce from 1.3440, anticipating only a 30-35-pip intraday downward correction.

For Reference:

Due to the US government shutdown, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The last relevant data is only from October 28.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), both long and short positions have increased. Pressure on the dollar remains—especially after many have begun to bet again that the Fed will continue to lower interest rates. At the same time, the BoE's policy remains cautious, indicating its clear plans to continue fighting inflation. The short-term future dynamics of the GBP/USD exchange rate will be determined by new fundamental reports. The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 7,052 to 82,471, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 10,539 to 102,733. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 636.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, suggesting further pound growth.
• Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary will act as support around 1.3287.

Description of Indicators:

• Moving Average: (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average: (determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator: (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on December 11. The Euro Continues to Rise

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Yesterday, several entry points into the market were formed. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1649 level and planned to make market-entry decisions from that level. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1649 provided a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a slight 20-pip decline in the pair. In the second half of the day, another false breakout around 1.1649 allowed buying the euro, which led the pair to rise towards the target level of 1.1703.

To Open Long Positions on EUR/USD:

Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9 to 3 to lower the key interest rate by 0.25% to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%. This led to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of the euro. In addition, the Federal Reserve announced that it will begin buying short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12, effectively turning on the printing press again. While the scale of these purchases is not yet comparable to classic QE, the Fed's actions are aimed at supporting the economy. As for today, only the quarterly unemployment rate in Italy and a Eurogroup meeting are expected. These events are unlikely to negatively impact the euro. However, if the pair declines, I expect initial signs of buyers around the support level of 1.1676. I plan to buy there only after a false breakout forms, which will provide an entry point for long positions with the aim of recovering to 1.1706. A breakout and a retest of this range from above will confirm the right actions to buy euros, anticipating a larger push towards 1.1726. The furthest target will be the high at 1.1753, where I will take profits. If the EUR/USD declines and there is a lack of activity around 1.1676, selling pressure on the pair will intensify, and bears will try to overshadow yesterday's gains. Sellers will also look to reach the next interesting level of 1.1649, and only the formation of a false breakout there will be a fitting condition for buying euros. I plan to open long positions immediately on a bounce from the low of 1.1619 with a target for an upward correction of 30-35 pips intraday.

To Open Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers of the pound experienced another defeat yesterday, but not everything is so straightforward. The Federal Reserve's mixed stance can quickly turn in favor of the dollar, leading to a market reversal. In the event of further EUR/USD growth in the first half of the day, bears can aim for the nearest resistance at 1.1706. Only the formation of a false breakout will provide an entry point for short positions, with the aim of moving to the support level at 1.1676. A breakout and settlement below this range against very weak data from Italy, along with a retest from below, will be another suitable option for opening short positions targeting the area of 1.1649. The furthest target will be the 1.1619 area, where I will take profits. If EUR/USD moves up in line with the trend and there are no active bearish actions at 1.1706, buyers will have a good opportunity to continue developing the bullish market. In this case, it is best to postpone short positions until a larger level is reached at 1.1726. Selling there will only be after a failed breakout. I plan to open short positions immediately on a bounce from 1.1753, targeting a 30-35-pip downward correction.

For Reference:

Due to the government shutdown in the US, fresh Commitment of Traders data is not being published. As soon as the current report is prepared, we will publish it immediately. The last relevant data is only from October 28.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders), both long and short positions have increased. Expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to exert pressure on the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 5,893 to 250,400, while short non-commercial positions jumped by 10,312 to 143,067. As a result, the spread between long and short positions narrowed by 1,065.

Indicator Signals:

• Moving Averages: Trading is above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further growth for the euro.
• Note: The periods and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly H1 chart and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
• Bollinger Bands: In the event of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary will act as support around 1.1619.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: (average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart.
• Moving Average: (average, determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart.
• MACD Indicator: (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9.
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
• Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements.
• Long Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short Non-Commercial Positions: Represents the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 11

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The dollar is facing challenges. Yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to lower the key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, leading to a weakening of the dollar and a strengthening of several risk assets, including the Japanese yen.

The Federal Reserve's decision was the result of prolonged debates about the state of the US economy. Proponents of the rate cut argued that the slowdown in labor market growth and global uncertainty necessitated the easing of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Conversely, opponents were concerned that a rate cut could lead to rising inflation and financial instability. However, it should be noted that there were only two such opponents. The market reaction to the Fed's actions was immediate. The US dollar sharply fell against major currencies, particularly against the euro, which strengthened to a several-month high.

Today, only the quarterly unemployment rate in Italy and a Eurogroup meeting are expected in the morning. The upcoming publication of unemployment data in Italy is unlikely to significantly impact market sentiment. Only a higher-than-expected unemployment rate could raise concerns about economic growth and potentially lead to a slight decline in the euro's value. Concurrently, the Eurogroup meeting promises to be a platform for discussing key issues regarding the economic situation in the eurozone, likely focusing on fiscal policy, coordination of efforts to stimulate economic growth, and inflation management. Discussions may also revolve around plans to further support countries facing economic difficulties.

Regarding the UK and the pound, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak in the morning. His comments are expected to shed light on the prospects of the BoE's monetary policy. Traders will be especially attentive to his assessment of the UK's current economic state, given recent inflation and labor market data. Special attention will be paid to signals regarding possible future actions by the BoE concerning interest rate cuts.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data significantly deviates from economists' forecasts, the Momentum strategy would be more appropriate.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Long positions on a breakout of level 1.1706 could lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1726 and 1.1753.
• Shorts on a breakout of level 1.1676 could lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1649 and 1.1619.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Longs on a breakout of level 1.3389 could lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3416 and 1.3440.
• Shorts on a breakout of level 1.3352 could lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3320 and 1.3287.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Longs on a breakout of level 156.12 could lead to an increase in the dollar to around 156.55 and 156.94.
• Shorts on a breakout of level 155.75 could lead to a sell-off of the dollar to around 155.41 and 155.08.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.1716 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.1680 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3399 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3350 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6663 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6614 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3830 on a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3791 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 11-16, 2025: buy above 1.1657 (GAP - 4/8 Murray)

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The euro experienced a strong upward movement following consolidation within the secondary downtrend channel formed since early December, which led EUR/USD to reach a high of 1.1707.

We are now seeing a technical correction in the euro, but this could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions if the price reaches the 3/8 Murray support around 1.1658. Above this zone, it could be seen as an opportunity to buy in the coming days.

On the H4 chart, we can see that the euro left a gap on September 25 around 1.1740. We believe that the euro could continue its rise in the coming days and cover this gap, so any pullback will be seen as a signal to buy.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so if the euro trades within the uptrend channel formed since November 24, it will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 1.1718, 1.1740, and even 1.1765.

A drop below 1.1640 and a sharp break of the uptrend channel could signal a change in trend, and we could expect the euro to return to the 1/8 Murray levels around 1.1538.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 11-16, 2025: sell below $4,250 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,214 within the downtrend channel formed since November 27 and is likely to continue falling in the coming hours as it encountered strong resistance around $4,248.

If gold attempts to break through the top of the downtrend channel around $4,250, it will be seen as a signal to open short positions with short-term targets around $4,160.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we will look for opportunities to sell gold in the coming hours below the 7/8 Murray located at $4,218 or even if the price falls below the 21 SMA with a target at $4,170.

If the price rebounds and attempts to reach resistance levels around $4,230 - $4,245, this zone could act as a barrier for gold and could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

A break and consolidation above the downtrend channel and above $4,250 could push the price to reach the 8/8 Murray at $4,375.

Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold. Any technical rebound as long as the price consolidates below $4,250 will be seen as a clear signal to sell. The Eagle indicator supports our bearish strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 11-16, 2025: sell below $94,600 (200 EMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,000 after a sharp technical correction that occurred after attempting to break above the 200 EMA and, in turn, after testing the top of the uptrend channel around $94,600.

According to the H4 chart, Bitcoin appears to be overbought. So, if a technical rebound occurs in the coming hours and the price consolidates below 3/8 Murray and below the 200 EMA, it will be seen as an opportunity to take short positions with a short-term target around $85,000.

Bitcoin is trading below the 200 EMA and below the 21 SMA, which means that the leading cryptocurrency could remain under bearish pressure in the coming days. A reasonable strategy could be to wait for the price to attempt to reach resistance levels and then enter short positions.

A sharp break above $95,000 could change the Bitcoin scenario, and we could expect it to reach $100,000 around the 4/8 of Murray.

A consolidation below the psychological level of $90,000 could mean that Bitcoin continues to lose value and could reach the 2/8 Murray at $87,500 or even reach the November 21 low of around $81,250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for ETHEREUM for December 11-16, 2025: sell below $3,200 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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ETH/USD (Ethereum) is trading around $3,194 below the 21 SMA and around the 200 EMA, showing overbought levels and undergoing a strong technical correction after reaching the 3/8 Murray.

After reaching the top of the uptrend channel and the 3/8 Murray zone, both levels acted as strong resistance. Unable to find more demand above $3,437, Ether made a sharp technical correction and is now likely to continue falling in the coming days until it reaches the psychological level of $3,000.

If ETH/USD consolidates above the 200 EMA and above the 21 SMA in the coming hours, we can expect a recovery, and it could return to the 3/8 Murray resistance zone and even reach its weekly high around $3,450.

A sharp break of the uptrend channel formed since November 21 and a consolidation below $3,000 could signal a change in the trend for Ether, which could reach the 0/8 Murray $2,500 at around $2,500.

The outlook remains bullish for ETH/USD, provided that it reaches the 2/8 Murray support located at $3,125 in the coming hours or the bottom of the uptrend channel around $3,050, which will be seen as an opportunity to take long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 11? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only report to note is the weekly jobless claims in the US, which is straightforwardly a secondary report. Recall that this week saw the release of the ADP employment report and the JOLTS open vacancies report. These are much more significant reports, but the market reacted weakly to them, as it continues to await important reports such as Non-Farm Payrolls, unemployment rates, and consumer price indexes, which will be published next week.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. However, traders will not lack information during the penultimate trading day of the week. Last night, the results of the last FOMC meeting of the year were announced. The key rate was lowered by 0.25% for the third consecutive time, and the committee's expectations did not become more dovish (according to the dot plot). Jerome Powell announced a pause in monetary easing until the inflation indicator shows a sustainable trajectory toward the target level of 2%. Thus, the outcomes of the FOMC meeting could somewhat be viewed as favorable for the dollar. However, the dollar has risen for too long and too often in recent months without a clear reason. It appears that its reserves of luck have been exhausted.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to gravitate towards growth, as upward trends continue in both cases. The euro is targeting 1.1745, while the British pound is aiming for 1.3413. Volatility on Thursday may decrease, as there will be no significant events.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 11? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Trades on Wednesday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Wednesday, with a similar fundamental backdrop. However, it should be noted that the British currency began to rise well before the publication of the Federal Reserve's decision on rates and Jerome Powell's speech. Thus, as we anticipated, the upward trend for the British pound is maintained and gaining momentum. The market finally responded to the Fed's monetary easing as expected—by selling the dollar. Even the announcement of a pause in rate cuts at the beginning of 2026 did not deter traders from disposing of US currency. We have long anticipated a resumption of the global upward trend and believe there are still no fundamental grounds for the dollar's medium-term growth. The fact that the pair rose yesterday based on a generally "dovish" decision and "neutral" assurances is a very good sign for further upward movement. The pair has corrected for five months, and we believe this is sufficient.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, several interesting trading signals were formed on Wednesday. Initially, the pair bounced in the 1.3319-1.3331 range, but this signal did not develop, as the price failed to drop by 20 pips. However, during the U.S. trading session, the price broke through the 1.3319-1.3331 range, allowing novice traders to open long positions in advance. At the time of the FOMC announcement, traders could position their Stop Losses near the entry point and wait for developments. Subsequently, the pair showed strong growth.

How to Trade on Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a local upward trend. As we mentioned, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend in 2025, which could push the pair to 1.4000 within the next couple of months.

On Thursday, novice traders can remain in long positions based on yesterday's buy signals. The target is 1.3413. New long positions can be considered upon a bounce from the area of 1.3319-1.3331. Short positions should be considered if the price settles below the area of 1.3319-1.3331, targeting 1.3259-1.3267.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. There are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the US on Thursday, but the FOMC meeting results may still influence the market. Overall, upward movement in the pair remains a more attractive option than decline.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.