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EUR/USD Forecast on December 22, 2025

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The EUR/USD pair traded sideways on Friday, paying no attention to the 38.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1718, which had previously acted as a strong support level three times. Since traders have begun to ignore chart levels and their activity on Friday dropped to zero, I assume that the market has started actively preparing for the holidays. In this case, we are unlikely to see any significant moves before the end of the year. And if we do see any, forecasting them will be very difficult.

The wave picture on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The most recent completed upward wave broke the high of the previous wave, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the trend officially remains "bullish." It would be hard to call it strong, but in recent weeks bulls have regained confidence and attacked with renewed strength. The easing of the Fed's monetary policy supports further euro growth, and the ECB will not create any problems for the single currency in the near future.

On Friday, even judging by the charts, one could confidently say that there was no news background. In fact, that was not entirely the case, but what difference does it make whether there was news or not if the market showed no desire to trade? In reality, Germany released its consumer confidence index, while the U.S. published new home sales data and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Both U.S. reports came in worse than traders had expected, but the bulls did not even try to use this information for a new attack. Thus, neither technically nor fundamentally are there grounds at the moment to expect a strong move up or down. This week, interesting events will occur only on Tuesday, after which the market will switch into Christmas preparation mode. Next week is New Year's.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar after a bearish divergence formed on the CCI indicator. As a result, the decline may continue for some time toward the support level at 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this zone would favor the euro and a resumption of growth toward the 0.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the zone would increase the probability of a further decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional players opened 18,446 long positions and closed 11,889 short positions. Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 268,000, while short positions amount to 129,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Then the shutdown began, and now we see the same picture again: bulls continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they create numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy, such as the deterioration of the labor market. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of the Fed's independence under pressure from Trump and against the backdrop of Jerome Powell's resignation in May of next year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

On December 22, the economic calendar contains no interesting entries, and traders can already begin preparing for the New Year. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday will be absent.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sell positions are possible if prices consolidate below the 1.1718 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1656. Buy positions can be opened on a rebound from the 1.1718 level with targets at 1.1795–1.1802. However, today traders may once again ignore the 1.1718 level.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 22, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday rebounded from the support level at 1.3352–1.3362, reversed in favor of the pound, and began a move higher toward the 1.3425 level. However, overall the pair has been trading in a sideways range for more than a week. Thus, there is a high probability of another rebound from the 1.3425 level and a return to the 1.3352–1.3362 level. A consolidation of the pair below this level would make it possible to expect a continuation of the decline toward the next corrective level at 61.8% – 1.3294.

The wave structure turned "bearish" last week. The most recent completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the latest upward wave failed to break the previous high. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the U.S. news background also leaves much to be desired. A week before the New Year, a consensus and balance have formed between bulls and bears.

On Friday, the news background for GBP/USD was supplemented by the retail sales report. It turned out that sales fell by 0.1% m/m and rose by 0.6% y/y in November. These figures were worse than market expectations, yet the pound still managed to show slight growth during the day. I believe this growth was due solely to the technical rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level and nothing else. As I have already said, the pair is trading sideways, so the boundaries of this range are of key importance. Today, the UK will release its GDP report for the third quarter, but traders are unlikely to be able to leave the 1.3352–1.3425 range. The UK economy very rarely provides support for the bulls. The only notable events this week will be on Tuesday. The year is ending in a sideways range for the pound; traders are tired and are postponing the opening of long-term positions until next year. Therefore, I expect only weak market movements until the end of the current year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair made its third rebound from the 100.0% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3435, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and began a new decline toward the 1.3140 level. A consolidation above the 1.3435 level would favor the British pound and allow expectations of further growth toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 8,067, while the number of short positions rose by 3,402. The gap between the number of long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 60 thousand versus 135 thousand. As we can see, bears have dominated since early December, but the pound appears to have already exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency occasionally enjoys demand in the market, but I believe this is a temporary phenomenon. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to ease monetary policy in order to halt the rise in unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at the moment no one can be sure that the Fed's stance will not shift to a more dovish one during the year.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Change in GDP volumes in the third quarter (07:00 UTC).

On December 22, the economic calendar contains only one entry, which is not of particular interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday may be extremely weak.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sell positions could be opened on a rebound from the 1.3425 level on the hourly chart with a target at 1.3352–1.3362. The target has been reached. New sell positions can be considered after a close below the 1.3352–1.3362 level with a target at 1.3294. I recommended buy positions on a rebound from the 1.3352–1.3362 level with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3470. Today, these trades can remain open.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 22/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

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The ECB Does Not Intend to Intervene in Current Policy

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The euro is feeling quite comfortable as the European Central Bank no longer intends to interfere with the current monetary policy. Last week, ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller said it is still too early to talk about how borrowing costs might change going forward. Speaking the day after the ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 2% for the fourth consecutive time, the Estonian official said there is currently no need for adjustments, but did not go into details.

"If you ask what will happen in six months or later, honestly, it is too early to speculate," Muller said.

This stance sends a clear signal to the market: the regulator is satisfied with the current monetary policy and sees no need for sharp changes, at least in the near term. Such predictability is generally viewed positively by investors seeking stability and clear guidance amid global economic uncertainty.

"One can imagine scenarios developing in both directions. If the euro area economy performs worse and inflation continues to slow, then there may be grounds for further interest rate cuts. But one can also imagine the opposite situation," the policymaker said.

The impact of Muller's remarks is reinforced by the overall macroeconomic picture in the euro area. Inflation remains around the ECB's target level and shows signs of easing, allowing the regulator to maintain a wait-and-see approach. At the same time, economic growth in the region remains modest, which prevents the ECB from tightening policy for fear of exacerbating the situation.

As a result, the euro enjoys relative stability, supported by the absence of expectations for any radical steps from the ECB. However, the long-term outlook for the European currency will largely depend on further inflation dynamics and economic growth, as well as the geopolitical situation in the region and globally.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1730 level. Only this would allow a move toward testing 1.1750. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1770, but doing so without support from major players would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1805. In the event of a decline, only around the 1.1705 level do I expect any serious action from large buyers. If there is no activity there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The U.S. Federal Reserve Prepares for Further Rate Cuts

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The U.S. dollar weakened and gold rose after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supported further interest rate cuts, saying that this would help return central bank policy to a neutral level. At the same time, he noted that there is no need to rush such a move for now.

Describing a scenario in which inflation continues to slow through 2026, Waller said that monetary policy settings are currently about 100 basis points above the neutral level. "Since inflation is still high, we can afford to be patient—there is no need to cut rates quickly," Waller said. "But we should gradually push policy toward the neutral level."

Investors interpreted Waller's comments as a signal that the Fed may maintain a dovish stance in the future. Although Waller emphasized the lack of urgency in cutting rates, his acknowledgment that current monetary policy remains in restrictive territory strengthened market expectations for future easing.

These remarks were Waller's first since Fed officials cut interest rates for the third consecutive time last week. However, the decision was not unanimous. There were three dissenters, highlighting deep divisions within the committee. Policymakers also subtly changed the wording of their statement, hinting at greater uncertainty over when they might cut rates again.

Waller, whose candidacy is being considered for the position of the next Fed chair, is now taking a more dovish stance—one that Trump is demanding from the future head of the Federal Reserve.

"Absolutely. I have devoted 20 years of my life to working on the issue of central bank stability and why it matters. There is no doubt that I have many proposals for developing and maintaining the stability of our economy," Waller said.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on taking the 1.1730 level. Only this would allow a move toward testing 1.1750. From there, the pair could climb to 1.1770, but doing so without support from major players would be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the high at 1.1805. In the event of a decline, only around the 1.1705 level do I expect any serious action from large buyers. If there is no activity there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1685 low or to open long positions from 1.1650.

Regarding the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3405. Only this would allow a move toward 1.3425, above which a breakout would be quite difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.3450 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to seize control of the 1.3360 level. If they succeed, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3340 low, with the prospect of a further move toward 1.3310.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market at crossroads: Santa Claus rally vs. tech bubble fears

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There is a lot of noise for little gain. The S&P 500 is fluctuating erratically. Bulls are counting on FOMO, or fear of missing out, and the traditional year-end Christmas rally. Meanwhile, bears are betting on a bubble in technology companies characterized by inflated fundamental valuations and their failure to generate profits commensurate with colossal investments. As a result, the broad stock index has come close to record highs, but that final step is often the toughest.

According to Goldman Sachs, the US stock market rally is expected to continue into 2026. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and solid corporate earnings should prolong the economic cycle and support risk assets. However, the bank cautions that the upcoming year may not be as fruitful as the previous one. The easing of monetary policy will be uneven, and high fundamental valuations of S&P 500 companies may deter investors from pouring money into US equities. Nonetheless, capital continues to flow in abundance.

Dynamics of Capital Flows into US Stocks

In 2025, approximately 45% of S&P 500's earnings were generated by the Magnificent Seven companies. However, rising competition and doubts about the efficacy of investments in artificial intelligence technology are leading to a rotation in stocks. Shares of NVIDIA and other giants are being replaced with bank, energy, and other sector stocks. This shift is further exacerbated by concerns over stretched price-to-forward earnings ratios, raising fears of a potential bubble. This scenario mirrors the dot-com crisis, indicating that a crash might well occur again.

History has a way of repeating itself—both for better and for worse. Typically, around the transition from one year to another, the S&P 500 tends to rise. This rally is commonly referred to as the Christmas rally or the Santa Claus rally. Although the broad index missed this pattern in 2024-2025, why not see the tradition manifest in December-January this time?

S&P 500 Price-to-Earnings Ratio Dynamics

There are substantial doubts. Investors are skeptical regarding the slowdown in US inflation in November, attributing it to the government shutdown. The futures market shows less than a 20% probability of a federal funds rate cut in January, with expectations shifting to March. Additionally, FOMC officials characterize the last three acts of monetary expansion as preventive measures and intend to remain on the sidelines at least until spring. This perspective is reflected by the presidents of the New York Fed, John Williams, and the Cleveland Fed, Beth Hammack.

Thus, if the upward trend in the S&P 500 continues into the fourth year of a bull market, the scale of this rally would be incomparable to prior periods.

From a technical standpoint, the daily chart of the broad market index has formed a doji candle, with the price breaking above the moving averages. Long positions established above 6,750 in the S&P 500 should be held and gradually increased. Target levels are set at 6,980 and 7,100, where important pivot levels are located.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold, Silver, and Platinum Skyrocket

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Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. Precious metals prices have risen by more than 1.5%, surpassing the previous record of $4,413 per ounce set in October of this year.

Traders are once again betting that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs twice in 2026 following a series of economic data released last week. Lowering interest rates typically benefits the prices of non-yielding precious metals.

The rise in gold prices is also supported by sustained demand from central banks, particularly in developing countries. Central banks are seeking to diversify their reserves amid fears of currency devaluation and global economic instability.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions in recent weeks has further increased the attractiveness of gold and silver as safe-haven assets. The U.S. has intensified its oil blockade against Venezuela, increasing pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government, while Ukraine has, for the first time, attacked a Russian oil tanker in the Mediterranean.

Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that precious metals are on track for their strongest annual growth. Trump's aggressive efforts to reform global trade, along with his threats to the independence of the U.S. central bank, have further fueled the rapid price increases this year.

Platinum has risen for the eighth consecutive session and has surpassed the $2,000 mark for the first time since 2008. Platinum, which has increased by about 125% this year, has been growing rapidly, keeping pace with silver.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to surpass the nearest resistance at $4,432. This will enable targeting $4,481, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The farthest target will be the area around $4,531. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over $4,372. If this is achieved, a range breakout could deal a severe blow to bullish positions and push gold down to a low of $4,304, with the potential to reach $4,249.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Positive news from US boosts cryptocurrency market

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Last Friday, it was announced that the US Senate approved two pro-cryptocurrency candidates nominated by Donald Trump for key positions, which had a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, leading to noticeable gains over the weekend.

Michael Selig was appointed as the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Selirg previously worked at the SEC, focusing on crypto policy and market structure. He considers most crypto assets to be commodities rather than securities and supports stablecoins, tokenization, and spot markets.

Travis Hill has become the head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). He is currently serving as the acting head of the agency and has publicly opposed the debanking of crypto companies. He has also allowed banks to work with cryptocurrencies without separate regulatory approval, advocating for a banking model for regulating stablecoins.

The appointments of Selirg and Hill indicate a potential easing of regulation in the US cryptocurrency industry. Previously, crypto companies faced significant pressure from the SEC and other agencies, which hindered industry development. With more lenient regulators now in place, companies will have greater flexibility for innovation and growth.

However, it is important to remember that much work remains to be done in developing clear and understandable rules that consider both industry interests and investor protection. Ensuring regulations do not stifle innovation while providing safeguards against fraud and abuse is crucial. Nonetheless, the appointments of Selirg and Hill are undoubtedly a positive signal for the crypto community. Their arrival could mark the beginning of a new era in regulating cryptocurrencies in the US, emphasizing the creation of a favorable environment for innovation and investment rather than restrictions and bans.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $89,600 level, which opens a direct path to $92,300; from there, it would not be far to $95,000. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $95,900, and surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bullish market. Should Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the $87,400 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $85,500, with the further target being the $83,220 region.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,105 level opens a direct path to $3,233. The ultimate target will be around the peak at $3,349, and exceeding this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiments and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $2,997 level. A drop below this area could swiftly send ETH down to around $2,858, with the further target being the $2,763 region.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22. Review of Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.49 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was moving sharply above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda. The politician stated that further central bank rate hikes are unlikely in the near future, which greatly weakened buyers' positions. The market reacted instantly. The dollar surged, breaking through important resistance levels, while the yen plummeted, reaching multi-month lows against the U.S. currency. Investors, who had previously hoped for a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, began actively offloading yen in favor of more attractive dollar-denominated assets. Ueda's statement was a surprise to many analysts, given Japan's rising inflation. The market expected the BOJ to at least continue signaling the potential for further near-term rate hikes to curb inflation and support the yen. Now, after Ueda's comments, the outlook for the yen appears quite bleak. If the BOJ does not change its stance, the yen may continue to weaken, which could lead to further inflation increases due to rising import costs. This will add additional pressure on the Japanese economy, which is already facing difficulties.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 157.43 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 157.93 (thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 157.93, I intend to exit my long positions and sell immediately on a pullback, anticipating a 30-35-pip move back from the entry point. It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.24 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 157.43 and 157.93 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.24 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.77 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 157.43 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 157.24 and 156.77 can be expected.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions cautiously. It is advisable to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as in the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22. Review of Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3372 coincided with the MACD indicator just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair decreased by 15 pips.

The pound reacted poorly to the retail sales data. Weak UK retail sales raised concerns about consumer activity; however, their impact was mitigated by similar signals from the U.S. economy. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, reflecting worries about inflation and economic uncertainty, raised doubts about the strength of the U.S. recovery, putting pressure on the dollar.

This morning, important data on the dynamics of UK GDP for the third quarter of the current year, changes in investment volumes, and current account balance figures are expected to be published. These economic indicators are under close scrutiny by traders as they provide relevant insights into the state of the British economy following a period of significant instability and economic upheaval. The GDP dynamics for the third quarter will serve as a key indicator to assess how successfully the UK is coping with high inflation and high rates. If the British GDP declines for a second consecutive quarter, the British pound may weaken against the U.S. dollar. Changes in investment volume in the UK, which play a key role in long-term economic growth, will also be in focus. An increase in investment could signal strengthened business confidence and a willingness to expand and innovate, thereby stimulating economic growth and job creation. The current account balance reflects the difference between export earnings and import expenditures. A negative balance may indicate that the country spends more than it earns, which could lead to a weakening of the national currency and other economic difficulties.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3405 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3425 (thicker green line on the chart). At approximately 1.3425, I will exit my long positions and sell immediately on a pullback, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips back from the entry point. Strong pound growth can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3391 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 1.3405 and 1.3425 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3391 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3373 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a 20-25-pip move back from that level. Sellers of the pound are likely to return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3405 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 1.3391 and 1.3373 can be expected.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions cautiously. It is advisable to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as in the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 22. Review of Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1705 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Weak data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index put pressure on the dollar on Friday afternoon. However, the decline in the consumer sentiment index, which reflects households' concerns about the current state of the economy and prospects, did not prompt analysts to revise their short-term economic growth forecasts for the U.S. Therefore, the influence of this factor on the currency market was limited.

Today, due to a lack of economic data from the Eurozone, significant market fluctuations are not expected in the first half of the day. Traders' interest will likely shift to other factors, such as the geopolitical context. In the absence of important economic news from the Eurozone, external factors may dominate investor sentiment and set the tone for short-term volatility in EUR/USD.

In terms of intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today when the price reaches around 1.1726 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1749. At approximately 1.1749, I intend to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected following positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1712 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to opposing levels of 1.1726 and 1.1749 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro today once the price reaches 1.1712 (red line on the chart). The target for this sale will be 1.1688, where I intend to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from the level. Pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1726 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline to opposing levels of 1.1712 and 1.1688 can be expected.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line – indicative price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be locked in, as further declines below this level are unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions cautiously. It is advisable to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as in the example above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on December 22: S&P 500 and NASDAQ extend gains

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Last Friday, stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up by 0.88%, the Nasdaq 100 gaining 1.31%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.38%.

Global stock markets reached a weekly high as investors continue to bet on a strong year-end following the rally in US stocks last Friday. The MSCI All Country World Index, a broad measure of global equity performance, rose the third consecutive day. The Asia-Pacific stocks index jumped by 1.1%, largely driven by the technology sector. American stock futures also experienced an increase, although contracts on the Euro Stoxx 50 fell by 0.2%.

Commodity markets were also in focus: gold and silver reached record highs, while oil prices rose amid escalating geopolitical tensions following President Donald Trump's intensified blockade on Venezuela. Copper also hit a new peak. In Japan, bond yields climbed to multi-year highs after last Friday's interest rate hike, and the yen weakened as the country's top currency official did not signal any forthcoming changes to monetary policy.

The rise in precious metal prices is primarily attributed to their role as safe havens during times of uncertainty. The escalation of the conflict in Venezuela, coupled with concerns over slowing global economic growth, has pushed investors toward defensive assets. Additionally, the increase in oil prices, driven by risks of supply disruptions from Venezuela, has heightened inflation expectations, which also benefits gold and silver.

Expectations for a year-end stock market rally have risen, as buyers who actively purchased shares during last week's dip helped halt the decline caused by doubts surrounding artificial intelligence. This week, we are likely to see continued market growth as fear of missing out (FOMO) offsets concerns about a bubble in the stock market.

Regarding key data releases, this week will bring growth figures for the UK and US, as well as the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's December monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into potential interest rate hikes in February. In Japan, inflation data for Tokyo and employment figures are expected, which could help traders evaluate the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.

From a technical perspective, the main task for buyers in the S&P 500 today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,854. Achieving this mark could indicate growth and open the door for a surge to a new level of $6,874. An equally critical objective for bulls will be to establish control above $6,896, which would strengthen their positions. In the event of a downward movement amid declining risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,837. A break below this level could quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,819 and pave the way down to $6,801.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 22

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Bitcoin had a strong weekend, approaching the $89,000 mark. Ethereum is aiming to consolidate above $3,000, which could also support trader sentiment as the year comes to a close.

Last Friday, discussions emerged about the U.S. Senate returning to the development and review of the CLARITY bill concerning the cryptocurrency market as early as January 2026. This announcement, made amid rising uncertainty about further regulation of digital assets, immediately drew a response from the crypto community, boosting positive market sentiment.

The postponement of consideration of such an important bill, which we also learned about last week, could significantly slow the industry's development, as the lack of clear rules of the game hampers the influx of institutional investments and innovations. At the same time, the delay allows lawmakers to work out the details of the bill, consider all risks and benefits associated with cryptocurrencies, and develop an effective regulatory framework to protect investors and prevent the use of digital assets for illegal purposes. Proponents of this approach argue that rushing the passage of a law could lead to undesirable consequences and undermine trust in this new asset class.

However, critics argue that further delays create fertile ground for new negative speculation. Additionally, they believe that delays in regulation could cause the U.S. to fall behind other countries in the development of the cryptocurrency industry and lose its competitive advantage. In any case, the January Senate meeting will be a key moment for the future of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, and its outcomes will be closely monitored by market participants worldwide.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $89,000, targeting growth to the $90,000 level. Near $90,000, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Bitcoin can also be done from the lower boundary of $88,500 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown, targeting the levels $89,000 and $90,000.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $88,500, targeting a decline to the $87,500 level. Near $87,500, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Bitcoin can be done from the upper boundary of $89,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown, targeting the levels $88,500 and $87,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,042, targeting growth to the $3,087 level. Near $3,087, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on a pullback. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.
• Scenario #2: Buying Ethereum can also be initiated from the lower boundary of $3,009 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown, targeting the levels $3,042 and $3,087.

Sell Scenario

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,009, targeting a decline to the $2,942 level. Near $2,942, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a pullback. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.
• Scenario #2: Selling Ethereum can also be initiated from the upper boundary of $3,042 if there is no market reaction to its breakdown, targeting the levels $3,009 and $2,942.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 22

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The euro and the British pound maintained their positions against the U.S. dollar, unlike the Japanese yen, which fell sharply.

However, the dollar still faced pressure after disappointing data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, but this did not lead to any drastic market changes. Participants likely decided to wait for more significant economic indicators. Clarity regarding the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy remains crucial to restraining active trading.

Today, there is no data from the Eurozone, so significant market movements are not expected in the first half of the day. However, this calm before the storm can be deceptive. Markets possess an astonishing ability to anticipate, and may already be pricing in upcoming events. Traders' attention might shift to other regions. Furthermore, we should not overlook the geopolitical situation. Any unexpected news or escalation of tensions in the various areas of the world could trigger a flight to safe-haven assets.

As for the pound, important reports on the UK's third-quarter GDP volume and the current account balance are expected in the first half of the day. These macroeconomic indicators will provide fresh insights into the state of the British economy. The change in GDP for the third quarter will serve as a key indicator to assess how successfully the UK is managing high inflation and high rates. It is clear that nothing good is expected from GDP. The report on the current account balance will reflect the difference between the country's exports and imports. A current account deficit may indicate that a country spends more than it earns, which could lead to a decline in the value of its national currency and other economic problems. Conversely, a surplus may indicate a strong export orientation and a stable economic position.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is best to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is preferred.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 1.1730 may lead to a rise in the euro to approximately 1.1755 and 1.1776;
• Selling on a breakout at 1.1710 may lead to a drop in the euro to approximately 1.1690 and 1.1660;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 1.3405 may lead to a rise in the pound to approximately 1.3426 and 1.3452;
• Selling on a breakout at 1.3380 may lead to a drop in the pound to approximately 1.3340 and 1.3322;

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout at 157.40 may lead to a rise in the dollar to approximately 157.70 and 157.90;
• Selling on a breakout at 155.20 may lead to a drop in the dollar to approximately 156.68 and 156.30;

Mean Reversion Strategy (Pullback):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1730 on a pullback below this level;
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1709 on a pullback to this level;

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3408 on a pullback below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3384 on a pullback to this level;

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6636 on a pullback below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6616 on a pullback to this level;

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3805 on a pullback below this level;
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3781 on a pullback to this level;

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crude Oil has the potential to strengthen today. Monday, December 22, 2025.

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[Crude Oil]

Although EMA(50) and EMA(200) have not formed a Golden Cross, the RSI(14) briefly touched the Extreme Bullish zone and is now in the Neutral-Bearish level, which indicates potential strength for #CL today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 57.61

2. Resistance. 1 : 57.12

3. Pivot : 56.42

4. Support. 1 : 55.93

5. Support. 2 : 55.23

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Crude Oil breaks above 57.12, it may have the opportunity to reach 57.61

Momentum Extension Bias: If 57.61 is successfully surpassed, Crude Oil could continue its strength up to 58.31.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if #CL declines and breaks below 55.23.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 56.48

EMA(200): 56.52

RSI(14) : 67.12

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, there are no economic data releases scheduled for when the U.S. session opens tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

With technical conditions indicates the strengthening, Gold will test its nearest resistance level

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[Gold]

Considering both EMAs are forming a Golden Cross and the RSI is in the Extreme Bullish level, buyers are expected to dominate Gold throughout today.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 4381.54

2. Resistance. 1 : 4359.96

3. Pivot : 4334.45

4. Support. 1 : 4312.87

5. Support. 2 : 4287.36

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If Gold rises above 4359.96, it has the potential to test the level at 4381.54.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 4381.54 is broken, there is potential for further strength towards 4407.05.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if Gold declines and breaks below 4287.36.

EMA(50) : 4344.38

EMA(200): 4323.00

RSI(14) : 77.16

Economic News Release Agenda:

Today, there are no economic data releases scheduled for when the U.S. session opens tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. GDP Reports and Christmas

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The GBP/USD currency pair showed a volatility of 37 pips on Friday. There were no market movements, despite several macroeconomic reports in the UK and the U.S. Earlier in the week, key data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation were released in the U.S., along with the Bank of England meeting, where a decision to lower the key rate was made. Reports on UK business activity, unemployment, and inflation were also published. Yet, all that traders got this week was a flat market.

If traders couldn't determine the direction of movement last week, the likelihood of a trending movement this week is even lower. Of course, in a "thin" market, movements can occur. But they will likely not be driven by macroeconomic or fundamental factors. All the most interesting events happened last week. The market learned everything it wanted to know. This week, most traders will be celebrating. Nevertheless, a few reports will be released in the UK and the U.S., so it would be a shame not to consider them.

In the UK, the third estimate of GDP will be released on Monday. From our perspective, this third estimate is important, but it rarely differs significantly from the first or second estimates. It is expected that the British economy grew by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year. Actual values may be lower. A market reaction is likely only if there is a significant deviation from the forecasts. However, even in that case, strong movement should not be anticipated.

On Tuesday, U.S. GDP data will be published. Experts expect growth of 3.2%, but the actual figure may be lower again. However, this release will only be the second estimate, which is objectively the least significant. On the same day, durable goods orders will be published, and the report could provoke a noticeable reaction. The strength of that reaction will depend on how far the actual value deviates from the forecast. On Tuesday, there will also be a report on industrial production, which traders may pay attention to.

There are no more significant events scheduled in the UK or the U.S. for the rest of the week. Technically, in the short term, the GBP/USD pair is in a flat, which is visible on the hourly timeframe, while in the long term, it remains in an upward trend. On the daily timeframe, the Senkou Span B line has been breached, which we consider to be a very important moment. Essentially, the British currency may continue to grow even without a downward correction. The key is to break out of the flat on the hourly timeframe through the upper line.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 81 pips, which is considered "medium." We expect the pair to trade between 1.3294 and 1.3456 on Monday. The upper linear regression channel is pointing down, but it is only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times in recent months and has formed numerous bullish divergences, consistently signaling a resumption of the upward trend. This week, the indicator formed yet another bullish divergence, but previously there had been two entries into the overbought area and a bearish divergence. The pound is confidently moving toward another flat.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3367
• S2 – 1.3306
• S3 – 1.3245

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3428
• R2 – 1.3489
• R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair is trying to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to pressure the dollar, so we do not expect the U.S. currency to grow. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3245 based purely on technical factors. From time to time, the U.S. currency shows corrections (in a global context), but for a trend strengthening, it needs signs of an end to the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels help to determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend at present.
• The Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
• Murray Levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will conduct trades over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator: An entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. Holidays Begin

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The EUR/USD currency pair "stagnated" on Friday. The volatility of movements once again did not please traders. Essentially, there was no significant movement. It should be noted that a large volume of important macroeconomic data was published in the Eurozone and the U.S. this week, along with the European Central Bank meeting. The ECB did not make any important decisions, so macroeconomic data took precedence. However, even the U.S. data did not provoke any market "storm." The week passed, and the pair remained at the same price level as at the beginning.

Looking ahead to next week, we want to note that the holidays officially begin today. Christmas is this week, and the New Year follows next week. Therefore, there will be virtually no fundamental events, and macroeconomic data will be minimal. As a result, many traders may assume that volatility during these days will be at zero. This assumption is reasonable. However, I want to remind you of an important factor: the well-known "law of misfortune," which applies even to the currency market. Last week, everyone was expecting a "storm," but got a "calm." This week, everyone expects a "calm," but could experience a "storm." The market is currently "thin," making it much easier to move prices. Any large trade can provoke significant movement while other market participants enjoy the holidays.

In the Eurozone, there are no releases scheduled for next week, not even minor ones. Thus, traders will be able to trade exclusively based on technical analysis. It is important to remember that the key point remains the flat market on the daily timeframe, where the pair has been for 6 months. This is clearly visible on the corresponding chart. Traders failed to break the upper boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830 last week, so theoretically, we may see a decline toward the lower boundary.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the past five trading days, as of December 22, is 51 pips and is characterized as "medium-low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1656 and 1.1758 on Monday. The upper regression channel is turning upward, but the flat market on the daily timeframe continues. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice in October and visited the overbought area last week. A downward correction is possible, which we are already observing.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1658
• S2 – 1.1597
• S3 – 1.1536

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1719
• R2 – 1.1780
• R3 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is positioned above the moving average line, with an upward trend maintained across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for the sixth consecutive month. The global fundamental backdrop remains significant for the market and negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has shown occasional weak growth, but only within the sideways channel. There is no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered, with targets at 1.1658 and 1.1597 based solely on technical factors. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with targets at 1.1780 and 1.1830 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe), which have already been practically achieved. Now the flat must conclude.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both are pointing in the same direction, then the trend is currently strong.
• The Moving Average Line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently proceed.
• Murray Levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility Levels (red lines) – probable price channel where the pair will spend the next 24 hours based on current volatility indicators.
• CCI Indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for GBP/USD for December 22. The British Pound Has Had a Good Rest

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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements on Friday. Even relatively important reports on retail sales in the UK and consumer sentiment in the U.S. did not help. On the 5-minute timeframe, it is clear that the price ignored the 1.3369-1.3377 area and the Kijun-sen line throughout the day. This happens when the market is in a "calm" phase. And indeed, the market was calm—the day's overall volatility was just 37 pips.

From a technical perspective, the situation on the hourly timeframe is even more interesting. During this super-important week, the only thing the market showed was a flat. The GBP/USD pair is now trapped between 1.3307 and 1.3437, and last week closed right in the middle of this sideways channel. Thus, we have formed not just a flat, but a flat in a square. How long it will take to exit this sideways channel is unclear, given the extremely low number of significant events this week and the holiday status of the upcoming week. Moreover, we already know that important events and reports do not necessarily lead to strong movements.

On the 5-minute timeframe, several signals were formed on Friday, but there was no point in acting on them, as movements were absent. Overall, this was evident by the beginning of the U.S. trading session. Thus, there were no grounds for traders to enter the market.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders frequently intersect and are often close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are moving apart, indicating the dominance of pound buyers.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Federal Reserve will likely lower rates in the next 12 months, which will continue to decrease demand for the dollar. According to the last COT report (dated December 9) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 8,000 buy contracts and 3,400 sell contracts. Consequently, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 4,600 contracts over the week.

In 2025, the pound has risen significantly, but it is important to understand that this is solely due to Trump's policies. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may start to strengthen, but when that will occur is uncertain. It does not matter how fast the net position for the pound grows or declines (if it declines). For the dollar, it is decreasing anyway, and, as a rule, at a faster pace.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair formed a flat between 1.3307 and 1.3437, so the further direction of movement will be determined once the price exits this sideways channel. We believe that medium-term growth will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, but in the next two weeks, movements may again be weak due to the holidays.

On December 22, we highlight the following important levels for trading: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3309) and Kijun-sen line (1.3383) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven if the price moves in the desired direction by 20 pips, which will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Monday, the UK's third-quarter GDP report, in its third estimate, will be published. We do not expect this report to provoke significant price fluctuations, but it is still worth noting. The calendar is empty in the U.S., so we may see yet another "boring Monday."

Trading Recommendations:

Traders can consider selling if the price consolidates below the 1.3369-1.3377 area, with a target at 1.3307. Long positions will become relevant if the price consolidates above the 1.3369-1.3377 area, with a target at 1.3437.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Levels – Thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels – Thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines – Trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts – The size of the net position for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on December 22. The Market Has Gone Stagnant

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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair did not move at all on Friday. There was some movement during the U.S. trading session, but it was not significant. Notable macroeconomic events included the U.S. new home sales report and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Both reports came in weaker than expected, but as one might guess, the market showed virtually no reaction. The U.S. dollar fell by 30 pips after its publication and then rose by the same amount by the end of the day. Thus ended the super-important week that was expected to provoke a "storm" in the market.

From a technical perspective, the upward trend remains intact, but we may see chaotic market movements next week. Therefore, the price may easily settle below the Senkou Span B line, indicating a cancellation of the bullish scenario. It is important to note that the pair has been in a trading range for 6 months on the daily timeframe, so a new short-term downward trend would be entirely justified technically, particularly given that the price has failed to break through the 1.1800-1.1830 range (the upper boundary of the flat range).

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday, so there were no reasons for traders to enter the market.

COT Report

The latest COT report was released last week and is dated December 9. As illustrated, the net position of non-commercial traders has long been "bullish," with bears struggling to enter a zone of their own superiority at the end of 2024, only to lose it quickly. Since Trump took office as President of the United States for a second time, the dollar has been in decline. We cannot state with 100% certainty that the U.S. currency's downward trend will continue, but current developments worldwide suggest this is a possibility.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro, while there are sufficient factors for the dollar's decline. The global downward trend remains intact, but what relevance does the price movement over the last 17 years have now? The dollar may strengthen if the global fundamental picture changes, but there are currently no signs of that.

The location of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the persistence of a "bullish" trend. Over the last reporting week, the number of longs in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 18,400, while the number of shorts decreased by 11,900. Consequently, the net position increased by 30,300 contracts over the week.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains an upward trend. The upper line of the sideways channel (1.1400-1.1830) has been tested, and we may now observe a technical decline, as the flat market persists on the daily timeframe. Essentially, we have seen a reversal near the upper boundary of the channel, which means we can now expect movement toward the lower boundary. A consolidation below the Senkou Span B line will confirm the market's near-term bearish outlook.

On December 22, we highlight the following trading levels: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1710) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1755). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves in the desired direction by 15 pips. This will safeguard against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Monday, there are no significant events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone or the U.S., so volatility is unlikely to be significantly higher than on Friday.

Trading Recommendations:

On Monday, traders can trade from the Senkou Span B line. A bounce from this line will make long positions relevant with a target in the area of 1.1750-1.1760. A consolidation below this line will lead to a decline with a target at 1.1657-1.1666. However, as noted, significant movement should not be expected today.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Support and Resistance Levels – Thick red lines around which movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels – Thin red lines from which the price previously rebounded. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines – Trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts – The size of the net position for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 22? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. The only noteworthy release is the final estimate of UK GDP for the third quarter. It cannot be said that this report is secondary, but we do not expect a strong market reaction. Traders are already familiar with the first two estimates, and the third is unlikely to differ significantly from them. In the Eurozone and the U.S., the event calendars are empty.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Monday. Overall, the market currently has questions only for the Federal Reserve. The last meeting occurred recently, and since then, the U.S. has published data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation, all of which have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Therefore, we do not have an updated perspective from Jerome Powell or other members of the FOMC. However, as mentioned earlier, there are no speeches from Fed officials planned for Monday. With the New Year approaching, many are going on holiday.

General Conclusions:

On the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may exhibit low volatility and trade predominantly sideways. The EUR/USD pair will likely continue to trade near the 1.1745-1.1754 area, where new trading signals should be sought. The GBP/USD pair has been flat for seven days, so trading can only occur at the boundaries of the sideways channel at 1.3319-1.3446.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Review for Friday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded even worse on Friday than the EUR/USD pair. Furthermore, another flat range has formed in the British currency, clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. For seven consecutive days, the quotes have been within the range of 1.3331-1.3437. What is this, if not a flat? This week, significant macroeconomic information was published in the UK and the U.S., and there was also the Bank of England meeting, the results of which are not trivial by any means. If reports on inflation, unemployment, and business activity indices, along with the BoE meeting, failed to trigger a trend or volatility, how can we characterize the current market sentiment? Only as a complete unwillingness to trade in principle. Thus, the key feature for the pound right now is the flat on the hourly timeframe. The ascending trend line has been broken, but that no longer matters. Any flat seems to deviate from the overall trend. After the flat concludes, the pair's growth may easily resume.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Friday. Throughout the day, the price did not even come close to areas of interest. There were no reasons for beginners to enter the market.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may enter a downward correction, as the trendline has been broken. However, over the past 1.5 weeks, a flat has formed in the market. As we have already noted, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we anticipate movement only to the upside. Overall, we also expect the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark within the next couple of months.

On Monday, beginner traders may consider new long positions if the price bounces from the area of 1.3319-1.3331 or breaks through the area of 1.3437-1.3446. A bounce from the area of 1.3437-1.3446 or a consolidation below 1.3319-1.3331 would make shorts relevant.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider now include 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Monday, the UK is scheduled to publish the third-quarter GDP report, which is not expected to spark much interest. In the U.S., the event calendar is empty, so we expect low volatility and the continuation of the flat.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Review for Friday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair remained stagnant on Friday. The overall volatility for the day was around 30 pips, which essentially indicates a complete lack of movement. It is worth noting that a significant number of crucial macroeconomic data were published that week, along with two central bank meetings (the European Central Bank and the Bank of England). Now, let's look at the charts. Does it feel like the fundamental and macroeconomic background over the past five days was super important? Essentially, the EUR/USD pair showed good movement only on Wednesday evening and Thursday night. During this time, the quotes dropped by 100 pips, and there were no more interesting movements throughout the week. Moreover, the 100-pip drop was largely driven by technical factors—specifically a rebound from the upper boundary of the range. On the daily timeframe, the pair remains within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830, which continues to explain the weak volatility. On Friday, there were almost no significant events, so the market essentially left for the weekend early, barely noticing the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. In general, we can only conclude that the flat market on the daily timeframe continues, and that says it all.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute time frame, no trading signals were formed on Friday, which is not surprising given the overall volatility of 34 pips. Throughout the day, the price did not attempt to work out any level or area.

How to Trade on Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to develop an upward trend. Over the past few days, two short-term trend lines have formed, and a breakout of these lines will indicate a resumption of the primary trend. In this case, there will be a new attempt to test the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which is the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the U.S. dollar; thus, we expect further growth of the pair. The price reached the upper line of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, so now it needs either to break through it or the flat will persist.

On Monday, beginner traders can trade from the areas of 1.1745-1.1754 and 1.1655-1.1666. There will be a few news releases on that day, so volatility may again be very weak.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. No significant events are scheduled in the Eurozone or the U.S. for Monday, so significant movements are unlikely.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

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Strangely enough, important events are scheduled for next week in the United States. While the UK and the Eurozone are already beginning their Christmas and New Year celebrations, America continues to operate. On Tuesday, reports on GDP, durable goods orders, and industrial production will be released. These are certainly not trivial and insignificant data releases. On Wednesday, initial unemployment claims will be published. After that, the limit of significant events will be reached even for the United States. Then comes Christmas.

The news backdrop next week will be limited to the U.S., and the aforementioned reports could add some excitement to the pre-New Year routine. However, I want to emphasize again that despite a multitude of important events over the last two weeks, the market has reacted quite modestly. Consequently, the two reports expected next week are unlikely to significantly wake up the market. I cannot say whether the market will lean towards buying dollars since the current wave analysis continues to indicate alternating corrective wave sets. Thus, from their current positions, both instruments may continue to build upward segments of the trend but could also start new downward movements. I believe that until the end of the holidays, we will not see any interesting movements or changes in the current wave layout.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment could extend up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave collection is starting to develop, and I believe we are now observing the formation of an impulse wave set, which is part of global wave 5. In this case, we should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% on the Fibonacci scale.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C at 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the primary trend segment to resume building, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the construction of wave 3 or C, with targets located around the 1.3280 and 1.3360 levels, equating to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C continues to develop, but three unsuccessful attempts to break the 1.3450 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale, are causing concern—could wave D in 4 now be starting?

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

British Pound: Weekly Preview

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The British currency did not show the expected movements last week. It is worth noting that over the past five days, several significant reports were released in the UK, including data on inflation, unemployment, wages, and business activity. In addition, the Bank of England held its last meeting of the year. In the U.S., reports on the labor market, unemployment, inflation, and business activity were released, and just a week prior, the Federal Reserve meeting occurred. There are times when important reports yield absolutely mundane figures, and central bank meetings end without any significant decisions. None of the aforementioned events fell into that category. However, the GBP/USD instrument has traded between 1.3280 and 1.3449 over the past two weeks. This range cannot be considered small or narrow, but my readers clearly did not anticipate seeing a sideways market.

If the market had no desire to trade during a period filled with a multitude of reports and events, that desire may be even less during the Christmas and New Year week. The only important event in the UK next week is the third-quarter GDP final estimate. However, it still does not spark much excitement for me, as the immense amount of statistical information released over the last two weeks did not prompt the market to move in any direction. I believe the current year will conclude in a dull, prosaic manner.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. dollar. The targets for the current trend segment could extend up to the 25th figure. The current upward wave collection is starting to develop, and I believe we are now observing the formation of an impulse wave set, which is part of global wave 5. In this case, we should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% on the Fibonacci scale.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C at 4 appears to be complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the primary trend segment to resume building, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the construction of wave 3 or C, with targets located around the 1.3280 and 1.3360 levels, equating to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C continues to develop, but three unsuccessful attempts to break the 1.3450 mark, which corresponds to 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale, are causing concern—could wave D in 4 now be starting?

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.