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What to Pay Attention to on December 12? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, but some deserve traders' attention. In particular, reports on GDP and industrial production will be released in the UK. The GDP will be published in monthly figures, which hold much weaker significance than quarterly or yearly data. Industrial production is an important report, and a strong value may provoke additional strengthening of the British currency. In Germany, inflation data will be released, but this will be the second estimate for November. Therefore, this report attracts little interest.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. All of them involve speeches by members of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee. Recall that on Wednesday evening, the results of the last Fed meeting of the year were revealed. The key interest rate was lowered by 0.25% for the third consecutive time, and the FOMC Committee's expectations did not become more "dovish" (according to the "dot-plot" chart). Jerome Powell announced a pause in easing monetary policy until inflation demonstrates a sustainable trajectory towards the target level of 2%. Thus, the Fed clearly outlined its stance for 2026. It is unlikely that Fed officials will be able to add to the existing fundamental picture of the dollar.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may again lean towards growth, as in both cases, an upward trend is still developing. The European currency has the area of 1.1745-1.1754 for position openings nearby, while the British pound has the area of 1.3413-1.3421. Volatility on Friday may be low, as the market has already reacted to the Fed meeting, and the macroeconomic backdrop will not be particularly strong today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 12? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart for GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Thursday amid the Federal Reserve meeting. In previous articles, we mentioned that the market could react to such an important event for up to 24 hours. This time, there were no drastic fluctuations, but overall, the market reaction to the US central bank's meeting was not extraordinarily tumultuous. Rather, the GBP/USD pair resumed its upward trend, which has been forming for three weeks. As we warned, the British pound is expected to rise after a long five-month correction on the daily timeframe. Therefore, regardless of the Fed meeting, we only anticipate growth. There will be no significant events this week, except for a couple of reports from the UK this morning. However, next week, important macroeconomic data will be published in the US, and the Bank of England will hold a meeting where the key interest rate may also be lowered.

5M Chart for GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, the first trading signals were formed during the US trading session on Thursday. The pair first moved above the area of 1.3413-1.3421 from below and then from above to below. The first signal proved false, but long positions should have been opened earlier around 1.3319-1.3331 on Wednesday evening. If they were opened at all... However, the sell signal could have been exploited.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to establish a local upward trend. As we mentioned, there are no global factors driving medium-term dollar growth, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we also anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend of 2025, which could lead the pair to the 1.4000 mark within the next couple of months.

On Friday, beginner traders may remain in short positions based on yesterday's sell signal. The target is 1.3331. The British pound is unlikely to fall that low, as the market trend remains upward. A price consolidation above the 1.3413-1.3421 area will allow opening long positions with a target at 1.3466.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be based on the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, 1.3574-1.3590. On Friday, two interesting reports are scheduled in the UK: the monthly GDP and industrial production. We believe the second report may provoke a minor market reaction, but overall, both reports have extremely low odds of significantly influencing the GBP/USD pair.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 12? Simple Tips and Deal Analysis for Beginners

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Deal Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart for EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday following the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday evening. Recall that the results of the last Fed meeting of the year cannot be considered unequivocally "dovish," as the central bank lowered the rate but essentially announced a prolonged pause for the following year. Only one easing of monetary policy is planned for the entire next year, which is positive news for the dollar. However, this time the market traded as if the Fed announced plans for 4-5 more cuts. It's also worth noting that the last two Fed meetings ended with a rate cut, after which the dollar rose. Therefore, the current decline of the American currency is more related to the flat trend on the daily timeframe. The price turned around near the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, so an expectation of a rise to the upper boundary could have been anticipated without the Fed meeting. In the long term, we expect the resumption of the 2025 global trend, with a breakthrough of the 1.1800 level and further growth.

5M Chart for EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe, the first trading signal was formed during the US trading session yesterday. The price reached the resistance area of 1.1745-1.1754 but was unable to continue rising. As of Friday morning, the price has bounced off this area. The previous buy signal was formed on Wednesday evening. Traders who opened long positions based on this signal realized a profit of about 60 pips.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to trend higher, though the price has breached the trend line this week. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic background remains very weak for the US dollar; therefore, we expect further growth. Even technical factors currently support the euro, as the flat trend on the daily timeframe persists, and after turning around near the lower boundary, it was reasonable to expect growth toward the upper boundary.

On Friday, beginner traders can trade from the area of 1.1745-1.1754. A price bounce from this area will allow opening short positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. A consolidation above this level will signal a long position, with a target at 1.1808.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Friday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone and the US. Only the second estimate of November inflation will be released in Germany. Thus, volatility today may drop to minimal levels, and trading will need to be performed based on technical analysis.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Deal Analysis for GBP/USD on December 12. The British Pound Finally Pleases the Eye

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Analysis of GBP/USD 5M

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement initiated a few weeks ago on Wednesday and Thursday. We do not associate the new rise of the British currency with the Federal Reserve's meeting, as we believe its results are not definitively "dovish." Yes, the rate was lowered for the third consecutive time, but traders were aware of this a month ago and were openly expecting this decision. For 2026, Jerome Powell announced a pause, and the FOMC committee indicated a maximum of one easing of monetary policy. It is probably unnecessary to say that this is not the most "dovish" outcome of a meeting possible. Thus, this time, the U.S. dollar could have shown growth. However, formally, the results of the meeting can be considered "dovish."

We believe the key reasons for the decline of the American currency are its overall overbought condition in recent months, an excessively strong correction against the British pound, and the global fundamental background, which has not changed at all over the past six months. Thus, the dollar was expected to fall in the first half of the year and to continue falling in the second. Of course, we understand that corrections are also necessary, but the pound has lost too much in the last correction, while the dollar has appreciated too much.

On the 5-minute timeframe, three trading signals were formed on Thursday. During the European trading session, the pair bounced off the area of 1.3369-1.3377 but only declined 10 pips. This signal turned out to be false. Then, a buy signal emerged in the same area, allowing a gain of about 40 pips. The level of 1.3420 halted the pair's upward movement, but it seems only temporarily.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that sentiment among commercial traders has been changing frequently in recent years. The red and blue lines, representing the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, constantly intersect and are often close to the zero mark. They are currently at nearly the same level, indicating a roughly equal number of buy and sell positions.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as shown on the weekly timeframe (illustration above). The trade war will persist in one form or another for a long time. The Fed will undoubtedly lower the rate in the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will decrease one way or another. According to the latest COT report (dated October 28) on the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 7,000 BUY contracts and 10,500 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders decreased by 3,500 contracts over the week. However, this data is already quite outdated, and there is no fresh information.

In 2025, the pound rose significantly, but it should be understood that there is only one reason: Trump's policy. As soon as this reason is mitigated, the dollar may resume rising, but nobody knows when. It does not matter how rapidly the net position for the pound is increasing or decreasing (if it is decreasing). The net position for the dollar is falling in any case, and typically at a higher pace.

Analysis of GBP/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. We believe that medium-term growth will continue regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop, and that the correction on the daily timeframe will eventually conclude. Or it may have already concluded. However, in December, much will depend on U.S. labor market data, unemployment, and inflation, which will determine the future direction of Fed monetary policy.

For December 12, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3533-1.3548, 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3253) and Kijun-sen (1.3360) can also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level to break even upon the price moving in the correct direction by 20 pips. The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when determining trading signals.

On Friday, two macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release in the UK. They are not among the most important. GDP and industrial production. It sounds significant, but in reality, the GDP report will be monthly, making it much less significant than quarterly or yearly reports. Both reports are likely to provoke only a minor market reaction. In the US, the event calendar is empty.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price bounces off the 1.3420 level with a target at 1.3369-1.3377. Long positions will again become relevant upon consolidation above 1.3420, with a target at 1.3533.

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Indicates strong levels when applied to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Deal Analysis for EUR/USD on December 12. The Collapse of the US Dollar

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Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

The EUR/USD currency pair moved only in one direction – upwards – during Wednesday and Thursday. The volatility was quite high this time, unlike what we have been accustomed to in recent months. In principle, it is clear to all traders where this movement is coming from. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve held a meeting, announcing its decision to lower the key interest rate (which was quite expected) and outlining "neutral" prospects for monetary policy for the upcoming year. We do not consider the Fed's meeting results to be definitively "dovish," as the decision to reduce the key interest rate in December was known a few weeks earlier. However, we have consistently stated that whatever decision the Fed makes, we expect only a decline in the dollar. At a minimum, within the range of the sideways channel aimed at 1.1800. At the most, we anticipate a resumption of the upward trend of 2025. For now, everything is heading in that direction, as the global fundamental background remains disastrous for the dollar, and a flat trend will eventually come to an end.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed yesterday, as all trading signals were established on Wednesday evening. It was at that point that the pair overcame the area of 1.1657-1.1666, after which on Thursday, it worked through and also surpassed the region of 1.1750-1.1760. The upper boundary of the sideways channel on the daily timeframe is just within reach.

COT Report

The latest COT report was released last week and is dated October 28. This means it is, to put it mildly, outdated. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time, with bears struggling to enter their own zone of superiority at the end of 2024 but quickly losing it. Since Trump took office as president of the United States for the second time, only the dollar has been declining. We cannot say with 100% certainty that the decline of the American currency will continue, but current global developments hint at that possibility.

We still do not see any fundamental factors that would strengthen the European currency, while there remain sufficient factors for the decline of the American one. The global downward trend is still in place, but what does it matter where the price has moved in the last 17 years? The dollar could rise if the global fundamental picture changes, but so far, there are no signs of this.

The position of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate a sustained "bullish" trend. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 5,900, while the number of shorts rose by 10,300. Consequently, the net position decreased by 4,400 contracts over the week. However, this data is already outdated and holds no significance.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues its upward movement, fully aligning with our expectations. As we warned, one should not rush to conclusions about the end of the upward trend until a consolidation below the Senkou Span B line occurs. The price remains within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830 on the daily timeframe, so one can still expect the euro to strengthen to 1.1800 in the near future. We also anticipate that the upward trend of 2025 will resume in December.

For December 12, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1616) and Kijun-sen (1.1686). The lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Do not forget to set a Stop Loss order to break even if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses in case the signal turns out to be false.

On Friday, the second estimate of German inflation is scheduled for release in the Eurozone, and this report is clearly secondary. In the near term, the EUR/USD pair will face a serious technical dilemma: either conclude the flat on the daily timeframe or remain within the sideways channel of 1.1400-1.1830.

Trading Recommendations:

On Friday, traders can trade from the area of 1.1750-1.1760. A bounce from this area will allow traders to open short positions, with a target at the Kijun-sen line at 1.1686. Overcoming the specified area will allow holding long positions or opening new ones, with a target of 1.1800-1.1830.

Illustration Explanations:

• Price Levels (Support/Resistance): Thick red lines where movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Indicates strong levels when applied to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe.
• Extreme Levels: Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. They serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position of each trader category.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. December 12. The Market Is Tired of Giving the Dollar a Chance

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The GBP/USD currency pair surged on Wednesday and continued its rally on Thursday. Recall that in yesterday's articles, we did not discuss the FOMC meeting, its results, and Jerome Powell's speech. We believe that enough time should pass after the meeting for the market's passions to settle. It often happens that the pair moves in one direction immediately after the FOMC meeting, only to return to its original position by morning. However, this time was different.

This time, the market reacted exactly as it should have. The key interest rate was cut, so the dollar's decline was entirely reasonable. It is important to note that the market often loves to price in the Federal Reserve's decisions that are already known in advance. Therefore, on the days results are announced, we observe movements that contradict rational logic. But why didn't the dollar strengthen this time, given that a rate cut was known a month ago? Because the dollar had been rising more often than it was falling over the past five months. The last two rounds of Fed easing, for some reason, led to a strengthening of the US currency. The British currency hasn't seen an objectively significant amount of negativity that would warrant a nearly 50% correction against the dollar (on the daily timeframe). During the same period, the euro only managed a paltry 23.6% correction. In fact, it has hardly corrected since the pair has been range-bound for six months. A sideways range and a correction are not the same.

Now the British pound has three significant events to navigate. First, the macroeconomic data on labor, unemployment, and inflation in the US will be released next week. Second, the Bank of England's meeting and the likely reduction of the key interest rate will also take place next week. Third, the Senkou Span B line on the daily timeframe. With regard to the macroeconomic data in the US, it's straightforward. The slower inflation rises, the more quickly the Fed will resume easing policy. The worse the labor market conditions, the faster the Fed will restart easing.

The BoE's meeting is a bit more complicated. The BoE is likely to cut the key rate, although it cannot be stated with certainty that UK inflation is declining. Yet this decision has been well known to traders for quite some time. At the last meeting, the "hawks" edged out the "doves" by the narrowest of margins. It's evident that the "doves" will win at the December meeting. Therefore, the British pound should not fall significantly.

The Senkou Span B line is a strong technical resistance level at 1.3364. The price settled above this line yesterday, so the barrier has been breached. If the next week does not bring fundamental disasters for the British currency, we expect a strong rise in the pair before the end of the year. In a "thin market," moving upward will be easier.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days, as of December 12, is 70 pips, characterized as "medium." On Friday, December 12, we expect the pair to move within the range limited by levels 1.3356 and 1.3496. The linear regression channel points downward, but it is solely due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times in recent months and has formed several bullish divergences, suggesting a potential resumption of the upward trend. Last week, the indicator "visited" the overbought area, and two days ago it formed another bullish divergence, while today it has entered the overbought area again. A downward pullback should not be strong.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3306
• S2 – 1.3245
• S3 – 1.3184

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3428
• R2 – 1.3489
• R3 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its upward trend in 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the US currency to appreciate. As a result, long positions with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term while the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small shorts can be considered with targets at 1.3245 and 1.3184 on technical grounds. Occasionally, the US currency shows corrections (on a global scale), but for trend-based strengthening, it needs signs of the end of the trade war or other global positive factors.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are considered strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. December 12. The Market Made the Right Decision: The Dollar Is Falling Again

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The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its upward movement on Wednesday and Thursday. This marks the market's almost first logical reaction to an important fundamental event in recent months. Remember that on Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to lower the key interest rate by another 0.25%, which, naturally, was expected to provoke a decline in the US dollar. However, starting from September, the market had been engaged in various activities, excluding a logical response to macroeconomics and fundamentals. The explanation for this is quite simple — the sideways movement on the daily timeframe. Based on this same sideways trend, we have predicted a rise in the pair to 1.1800, even without the Fed meeting.

It should be understood that the market has been trading illogically for the past few months, but this situation cannot last forever. A sideways range always leads to random movements and is never a coincidence. Simply put, a sideways range occurs when market makers establish new positions in anticipation of a new trend. Therefore, the movements we have observed over the last five months (and continue to observe) should not be explained by macroeconomic or fundamental events. The pair is currently rising primarily because it has reversed near the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830. Thus, a move to initiate a downward trend has not happened after the sideways range. There were no grounds for such a scenario.

Now we should expect growth toward the upper boundary of the range, and two scenarios may follow. Either a new reversal downward and continuation of the sideways movement, or a breakout from the range and resumption of the upward trend of 2025. Of course, we favor the second option.

If we analyze the Fed meeting in detail, the dollar was more expected to show growth. Yes, the key rate was lowered; however, what was surprising about this for traders? For three consecutive weeks, information has been flowing from every source stating that the Fed is preparing for another round of easing. Thus, the market had ample time to price in this event in advance. As for 2026, which, by the way, begins in 20 days, the Fed has revealed completely different plans, which we have also warned about multiple times.

The Fed plans to pause the easing process until inflation moves towards the target level of 2%. How will inflation move towards 2% if the Fed has cut rates three times already? However, understanding this allows us to assume that the next rate cut will not happen anytime soon. This is excellent news for the US dollar, as in 2025, anything that isn't bad is already good. Nevertheless, the market, which has held the dollar in a "golden cage" for five months, has grown tired of this. On the daily timeframe, the pair could return to the yearly highs before the New Year.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD pair over the last five trading days as of December 12 is 62 pips, characterized as "medium." We expect the pair to move between levels 1.1696 and 1.1820 on Friday. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downwards, signaling a bearish trend, but in reality, the pair is still in a sideways range on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered the oversold area twice in October (!!!), which may provoke a new upward trend in 2025.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1749
• S2 – 1.1719
• S3 – 1.1688

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1780

Trading Recommendations:

On Friday, traders can trade from the area of 1.1750-1.1760. A price bounce from this area will allow traders to open short positions targeting the Kijun-sen line at 1.1686. A breakout of the stated area will allow for holding long positions or opening new ones with a target of 1.1800-1.1830.

Notes on Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels (resistance/support) — thick red lines near which the movement may end. They are not sources of trading signals.
• The Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. They are considered strong lines.
• Extreme levels are thin red lines from which the price has previously bounced. They are sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines denote trendlines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT charts shows the net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast. Technical Situation in the Market

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On Thursday, starting in the European session, the Australian dollar sharply bounced against the U.S. dollar from the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) — this favors the bulls. By overcoming previous weakness caused by weaker-than-expected employment data in Australia, selling pressure on the dollar intensified following weaker initial jobless claims data from the U.S. Oscillators on the same chart are positive.

The nearest resistance is around 0.6680; breaching this level will allow the pair to target the round number of 0.6700, and beyond that, the yearly high. A decisive breakout above the annual high around 0.6707 will open the psychological level of 0.6800 as the next target, with the potential for further growth if the bullish momentum continues to strengthen.

On the other hand, the psychological level of 0.6660 is the nearest support before the round number of 0.6600. A daily candle closing below 0.6600 would undermine the short-term bullish sentiment, opening up the next support area around 0.6550 - 0.6540.

However, as long as the oscillators on the daily chart are positive, the path of least resistance remains upward. It is important to note, however, that the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering near the overbought zone at 68, suggesting consolidation.

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory, with the MACD line above the signal line, although the histogram has begun to narrow, suggesting a slowdown in growth in the near term.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Price Analysis and Forecast. Bears Trading the Japanese Yen Show Indecision

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The intraday drop below the round level of 156.00 and the 100-hour and 200-hour simple moving averages (SMA) confirms the possibility of further declines amid negative oscillators on the hourly chart. However, on the daily chart, the oscillators remain in positive territory, suggesting that a further decline may attract buyers near the round level of 155.00. It is also important to note that the relative strength index is close to neutral, indicating weakness among bulls.

Further selling below the psychological level of 155.00 would shift the short-term trend in favor of the USD/JPY bears.

On the other hand, sustained momentum above the round level of 156.00 could lift spot prices to 156.60-156.70 on the way to the round level of 157.00 or to the two-week high reached on Tuesday. Long positions above this level would pave the way for additional growth. Subsequently, the USD/JPY pair might surpass intermediate resistance levels of 157.20 and 157.50, aiming for the multi-month high around 158.00 reached in November.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Summary of the FOMC Meeting. Part 3

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But in all the assumptions and conclusions made in the previous two reviews, there is one big "BUT." And that "BUT" is Donald Trump. Despite three consecutive rounds of interest rate cuts, the rate is still far from Trump's dream. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rate stands at 3.75%, while the occupant of the White House dreams of 2% or slightly higher. Or slightly lower... Therefore, we can also draw another highly probable conclusion: Trump will not back off from the Fed in 2026.

However, starting in May, the pressure on the "stubborn hawks" will come from two directions. On one side will be Trump attacking, and on the other, the new Fed president, likely to be Trump's current advisor, Kevin Hassett. I do not want to speculate on what methods will be used to apply pressure, as we have all seen Trump's tactics during late summer and early autumn. He would have long since fired any governors who do not want to vote for a rate cut, given his will. So there are exactly two options left: either continue to fire Fed officials through social media and then argue in court whether such firings were lawful, or try to negotiate with a few governors to change their views and "start thinking in a state-scale dimension."

I don't even want to think about how Trump might "interest" members of the FOMC. But we all understand that there are a multitude of methods: from corruption to searching for "skeletons in the closets" of each negligent official. However, the fact that the Fed is currently "planning" one round of easing in 2026 is only a "plan" for the period while Jerome Powell remains president.

The conclusion from all three reviews is that the U.S. dollar will gain no advantage from the Fed taking a pause at the start of 2026. If, after May 2026, the rate resumes its decline, it is evident that this will be another reason for the market to sell the American currency. Therefore, at best, the dollar will fall slowly; at worst, it will decline rapidly. Inflation in the coming months will be the best friend of the U.S. currency. The higher the inflation, the better the dollar will perform, as the Fed will not dare to continue easing its monetary policy.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25th figure. The last upward segment of the trend is beginning to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure within a larger wave 5. Therefore, growth can be expected up to the 25th figure mentioned above.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the development of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, and the current collection of waves is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, a continuation of price increases can be expected.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no absolute certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Summary of the FOMC Meeting. Part 2

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After three rounds of monetary policy easing, it is still impossible to say for certain whether the "cooling" of the U.S. labor market has stopped. There is still no economic data regarding unemployment and payrolls, and the ADP and JOLTs reports are far from the most accurate, relevant, and timely. Therefore, the first conclusions cannot be drawn until next week. However, even those conclusions will not impact the situation. Let me explain what I mean.

For example, the next Nonfarm Payrolls report will show an average figure of around 70,000-80,000 new jobs. Consequently, it can be concluded that the labor market has begun to recover and that further monetary policy easing is unnecessary. Suppose the Nonfarm Payrolls come in again near the zero mark. In that case, the decline has stopped, but there are no improvements. In this case, the Federal Reserve would do well to conduct a fourth consecutive round of rate cuts, but that will not happen.

It will not happen because, in such a scenario, the central bank risks completely losing control over inflation, which could soar uncontrollably. As we discussed in the first review, the Fed will be balancing between its two mandates, and this balancing does not imply any new easing in January. Therefore, whatever results are shown in November reports on inflation, unemployment, and payrolls will not lead to a new round of easing at the next meeting.

So does this mean there will be no further easing? In the near term – no. This would have been very good for the dollar if the market weren't ignoring many other news factors. Recall that over the past five months, the market has mainly traded sideways. Neither the "shutdown," Trump's new tariffs, nor the two rounds of Fed easing had any significant impact. On the contrary, the dollar rose significantly during the "shutdown," and for some reason, the rate cuts in September and October reinforced the American currency. Therefore, the Fed's decision not to conduct a new round of easing at the beginning of next year will not help the dollar. The market already has plenty of factors to get rid of the U.S. currency.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25th figure. The last upward segment of the trend is beginning to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure within a larger wave 5. Therefore, growth can be expected up to the 25th figure mentioned above.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the development of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, and the current collection of waves is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, a continuation of price increases can be expected.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no absolute certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

NZD/USD: Price Analysis and Forecast. The NZD/USD Pair Attracts Buyers for the Fifth Day in a Row

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The NZD/USD pair is confidently holding above the round 0.5800 level, having surpassed the weekly high set the day before. Furthermore, the current fundamental factors create favorable conditions for bullish sentiments, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices is upward.

The U.S. dollar plummeted after the Federal Reserve made a moderate decision to lower interest rates and fell further after Thursday's release of negative news in the country. This step is seen as a key factor supporting the NZD/USD pair. The Fed lowered rates as expected, noting that the easing cycle will likely conclude in January. Additionally, it is projected that rates will decrease by only a quarter percentage point in 2026 — the same forecast was made in September.

However, investors remain cautious, anticipating further rate cuts following comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during the post-meeting press conference. Powell emphasized that the U.S. labor market faces significant downside risks, and the Fed does not want its restrictive policy to hinder job creation. As a result, traders began actively pricing in two additional rate cuts in 2026. This, combined with positive market sentiment, continues to weaken the dollar as a safe-haven asset, thereby boosting the New Zealand dollar, which is perceived as riskier.

Additional support for the New Zealand dollar comes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's strong stance regarding its future monetary policy. In fact, after the November 25-basis-point rate cut to the lowest level in more than three years, the RBNZ hinted that its easing cycle was ending. This approach is notably different from the Fed's dovish stance, strengthening the short-term positive outlook for the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, surpassing the 100-day SMA is favorable for bulls. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive; however, the relative strength index is close to the overbought zone, suggesting a potential consolidation. The nearest resistance for the pair is at 0.5850, near the 200-day SMA. Breaking through this level would allow the NZD/USD pair to reach the round 0.5900 level.

Immediate support for the pair is provided by the 100-day SMA, which the pair recently surpassed, as well as the round level of 0.5800 and the level of 0.5790. If these levels do not hold, the prices may drop back into the previous range.

The table below shows the changes in the U.S. dollar exchange rate against major currencies for the current month. The dollar has been strongest against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/JPY: Price Analysis and Forecast. The GBP/JPY Pair Finds Good Support Around 208.00

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On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair corrected to just below the round level of 208.00 in an attempt to attract buyers. At that time, spot prices traded in the range of 208.30–208.50, remaining near levels not seen since 2008.

Investors remain concerned about Japan's deteriorating economic and financial situation amid Prime Minister Sanae Takachi's plan for significant expenditures and weak economic growth. These factors vastly overshadow the Bank of Japan's hawkish sentiments and are among the primary drivers of the Japanese yen's weakness, thereby supporting the GBP/JPY pair.

However, the extent of the yen's decline is constrained by expectations of an interest rate hike by the BOJ at its monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week. These expectations are reinforced by remarks made earlier this week by central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda, who noted that the likelihood of achieving the baseline economic and inflation forecast is increasing. This mindset, coupled with a softer risk appetite, may support the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset.

Moreover, the hawkish stance of the BOJ significantly contrasts with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England next week, which makes traders cautious about opening new long positions on this pair.

However, the primary focus should be on the upcoming key events from the central banks: the BoE's monetary policy update next Thursday and the BOJ's rate decision next Friday. These events will significantly impact the direction of the GBP/JPY pair and help determine the next phase of the trend.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive, suggesting the pair is in a corrective phase.

The nearest resistance for the pair is at 208.90, while support is found at the round level of 208.00. The next support level is 207.75, near the 9-day EMA. A breakout below this level would bring prices back into the previous range.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Summary of the FOMC Meeting

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On Wednesday, I conducted a thorough analysis of the upcoming FOMC meeting and predicted that the U.S. central bank would lower interest rates, followed by a prolonged pause. Overall, the Federal Reserve conveyed its plan for further actions. Indeed, Jerome Powell reiterated that there is no action plan at the Fed; everything will depend solely on incoming economic information. However, it is precisely this information (of which there has been critically little in recent months) that led me to believe that a new cycle of easing is coming to an end.

I remind you that the blame for the "cooling" of the U.S. labor market can be placed squarely on Donald Trump and his new immigration and trade policies. Essentially, it was the president's actions that forced the labor market to throw out a lifeline. One could even say that Trump provoked the Fed to lower the interest rate since it was clear even this autumn that inflation was rising, making further easing untenable.

However, the Fed has two mandates: ensuring full employment and price stability. The Fed cannot hit both targets simultaneously, especially now, when the president continues to throw obstacles in its way. Therefore, the FOMC had only one option — to balance between two fires. In practice, this means it is impossible to achieve full employment amid rising unemployment, ensure low unemployment given current trade and immigration policies, and maintain inflation at around 2%. Therefore, the Fed must do everything possible to avoid drifting away from both goals at once.

The Fed started with the labor market, which, as of September, showed results that made one reach for the valium. Powell and company resumed the cycle of monetary policy easing, but then the "shutdown" began (also partly due to Donald Trump), and they had to act blindly thereafter. It was clear that a single round of easing would not be sufficient, as the impact of monetary policy changes does not manifest immediately. Therefore, the Fed conducted two more rounds to ensure that the labor market could stabilize somewhat.

Wave Picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the U.S. dollar's future decline. The targets for the current trend segment could extend to the 25th figure. The last upward segment of the trend is beginning to develop, and I hope we are witnessing the formation of an impulsive wave structure within a larger wave 5. Therefore, growth can be expected up to the 25th figure mentioned above.

Wave Picture for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures.

In the short term, I anticipated the development of wave 3 or c, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c may continue its formation, and the current collection of waves is beginning to take on an impulsive appearance. Therefore, a continuation of price increases can be expected.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to interpret and often carry changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter.
3. There is no absolute certainty in the direction of movement, and there never can be. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Market Rises After the Fed Rate Cut

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The U.S. stock market is entering the end of 2025 on a positive note. The Federal Reserve's decision to make its final rate cut of the year significantly boosted investor sentiment: the indices rose sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining almost 500 points in a single session, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw strong gains. The familiar phrase "Santa Claus rally" has reemerged in the news, referring to the traditional pre-holiday increase when markets, amid soft policies, seasonal optimism, and capital flowing into riskier assets, tend to rise more than fall.

At first glance, the picture looks almost ideal: rates are falling, indices are significantly above the levels at the start of the year, and the Fed's rhetoric sounds softer than it did six months ago. However, if you take a step back from the emotions, it becomes apparent that this growth is much more cautious and layered than it may seem at first glance. Investors are pleased—but they are keeping one eye on the chart and the other on statistics and corporate earnings.

The Fed rate cut is the key driver of the current movement. The cost of borrowed capital is decreasing, lowering yields on "safe havens" like Treasury securities, making risk assets more attractive. This is a classic market reaction: when the central bank adopts a softer stance, stocks typically respond with growth.

However, any rate is not just a number; it is a signal for the future. Investors are now carefully reading between the lines. There are several key points to consider.

The first is the finality of the cycle. The central bank has indicated that this reduction is the last for the current year, but has not made a firm commitment that 2026 will follow the same trajectory. The market is trying to guess whether this was a confident start to a new long period of low rates or a careful attempt to support the economy without overdoing liquidity.

The second point is the focus on 2026. The stock market thrives on expectations, and possible additional easing of monetary policy, stimulus programs through the budget, tax solutions, and the political cycle are already partially priced in. Investors are assessing whether companies can maintain current profit levels if economic growth slows and business expenses continue to rise.

The third point is the structure of growth. The rally amid a dovish Fed is not uniform across all sectors: those most sensitive to cheap money—technology, consumer sectors, and high-yield stories—are benefiting the most. But this is also where the main risks of overheating are concentrated.

In simple terms, the market is currently in a state of pleasant, yet very rational optimism. There is joy over the rate cut, but there are no illusions that it solves all problems immediately.

Technology and AI: A Magnet for Capital

The year 2025 has firmly established the technology sector, particularly companies related to artificial intelligence, as magnets for capital. Investors are accustomed to stories of exponential growth emerging from this sector and are willing to pay generously for the "future." However, any story about the "future" faces a simple question: what about real money here and now?

Last week's reports served as a harsh reminder of this. Oracle's report starkly illustrated how a disconnect between expectations and reality can quickly dampen enthusiasm. The company is actively investing in AI, increasing spending on infrastructure, cloud solutions, computational power, and partnerships. However, profit growth is not keeping pace with rising costs.

The market took notice—and reacted immediately. The company's stock fell, and this movement became not just a local story for one issuer but a signal for the entire sector. Asian markets are particularly attentive to this, where large corporations and funds have already largely built their strategies around AI and related technologies.

From this, an important conclusion follows: even under conditions of a dovish Fed and high liquidity, the fundamental reality of business has not vanished. If a company does not demonstrate proportional growth in revenue and profits, the market is increasingly unwilling to overlook this simply for the sake of a trendy narrative.

The technology sector remains both the main driver of growth and a potential source of turbulence. Any major company announcing that monetization of AI is progressing more slowly than expected could trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs—especially in areas where inflated expectations are already priced in.

Cautious Optimism: The Market Grows, But Checks Every Step

Despite the nervousness surrounding individual stories, the overall picture for U.S. indices remains positive. The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq are holding firmly above their starting levels for the year, and the reaction to the Fed news showed that buyers still have both the capital and the willingness to take risks.

Importantly, the demand for stocks is being shaped differently today. Investors are no longer buying everything indiscriminately amid "cheap money." The market has become more selective. More weight is given to companies with sustainable cash flows, understandable business models, and reasonable growth prospects. In places where profit becomes overly dependent on trends or very long-range forecasts, volatility only increases.

It is also worth noting that the current growth is largely underpinned by expectations regarding the U.S. economy. Markets are anticipating a soft landing scenario: inflation is brought under control, unemployment remains stable, and corporate profits increase at steady, if not explosive, rates. If this scenario begins to break down, the market will react quickly.

Thus, today's optimism can be described as conditional. This is not the euphoria of a cycle's start when everything rises on the faith of endless growth. It is cautious upward movement with constant risk management and readiness for a sharp change in sentiment.

What This Means for 2026

The key question that both traders and long-term investors are currently asking is: how sustainable is this rise, and what will it lead to next year?

On one hand, a combination of soft Fed policy, cheaper credit, and still-strong consumer demand creates a decent starting point for continued growth. If corporate profits confirm expectations and the U.S. economy avoids sharp deceleration, the market has a chance to smoothly transition from a "Santa Claus rally" to a moderately bullish start in 2026.

On the other hand, there are sufficient risks among them:

• Overheating in certain segments, especially in AI and high-tech companies;
• Possible disappointment in the pace of monetization of expensive technologies;
• Structural imbalances in commodity and debt markets;
• Political and fiscal factors that may alter the trajectory of taxes and government spending.

Essentially, the market is currently walking on thin ice: it receives support from the Fed and positive economic expectations from below, but is pressured from above by the need to back up high multiples with real results.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on December 11, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed, but overall it remains quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, has been canceled. However, the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken a more extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we saw exclusively corrective structures, so there were no doubts about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet completed, and its targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e sequence looks complete, and therefore I expect a new upward wave cycle to form in the coming weeks. We have already seen what appears to be waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now in the process of forming wave 3 or c. I expected this wave to rise to 1.1717, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci level, but this wave is taking a more extended form—which is very good, as it means it may turn into an impulse wave. And if so, the entire upward cycle could gain impulse characteristics as well.

The EUR/USD rate rose by 70 basis points on Wednesday and by roughly the same amount again today. Considering that for the previous week the trading range did not exceed 25 points and the movement was almost flat, we can say that yesterday the market finally broke free of its shackles. The euro continues to strengthen, but again only because demand for the U.S. dollar is falling—and that decline has been completely natural throughout all of 2025. I am surprised that market participants waited five whole months before resuming the upward trend. But things do not always unfold the way one wants.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced its decision to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points, which is a dovish move and therefore should have led to reduced demand for the dollar. And that is exactly what we saw. The Fed did not provide any promises for 2026, limiting itself to the standard phrase that "decisions will depend on economic data." However, the dot-plot chart showed that compared with three months ago, Fed officials' expectations have not changed. On average, they still expect one round of easing next year. Thus, in 2026 the Fed's rate cuts may be more symbolic than substantial—unless Donald Trump intervenes.

In my view, the wave pattern remains the most significant factor at the moment. Despite the strong complexity of the presumed wave 4, the entire wave structure remains readable. Therefore, it is still reasonable to expect the formation of the global wave 5. For the dollar, the news background remains weak, which comes as no surprise.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to build an upward trend segment. In recent months the market paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's actions remain significant factors that could weigh on the U.S. currency in the future. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. The latest upward segment is beginning to develop, and I hope that we are now witnessing the formation of an impulse wave cycle within the global wave 5. If so, growth toward the 1.25 level should be expected.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend is visible. The wave pattern is not entirely standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, the major wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. But such scenarios do happen. I would remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on the chart rather than forcing interpretation onto every wave. Currently, the upward structure raises no doubts.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and easy to read. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often imply changes.
2. If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold bounced off a level slightly above the round $4,200, accelerating its upward momentum.

Yesterday, as expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points following a two-day meeting and projected only one possible rate cut in 2026. However, investors expect two more cuts next year, especially after the dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

At the post-meeting press conference, Powell noted that the U.S. labor market faces significant downside risks and that the central bank does not want its economic-tightening policies to hinder job creation. This comment weakened the U.S. dollar and helped gold reach a new weekly high.

Nevertheless, the Fed Chair refrained from giving specific forecasts regarding the timing of future rate cuts but hinted that upcoming reductions are likely to be more restrictive. Moreover, two hawkish members of the Federal Open Market Committee opposed yesterday's rate cut, adding uncertainty about the pace of future policy easing and acting as a restraint on precious metal prices at yesterday's session.

However, today the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 rose to 236,000, compared to the revised 192,000 in the previous week. These numbers increased pressure on the dollar, causing it to plunge, and created favorable conditions for gold's rise.

In addition, slow progress in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continues to fuel geopolitical uncertainty, affecting global markets and supporting safe-haven assets such as gold.

From a technical standpoint, positive oscillators on the daily chart suggest that any pullback toward the round $4,200 level can be viewed as a buying opportunity.

A strong rally beyond $4,250 and consolidation above $4,270 would push the price toward the round $4,300 level. Further buying could be considered a key factor for the bulls. However, it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index is approaching overbought territory, which confirms the likelihood of a correction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen

There were no tests of the levels I marked in the first half of the day, so I had no trades.

In the second half of the day, figures on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance are expected. Weak statistics will lead to a new decline in the USD/JPY pair. The market's reaction to the data release will be immediate, as traders closely monitor these indicators, which serve as important signals of the U.S. economy's condition. An increase in initial jobless claims indicates a slowdown in the labor market, which may negatively impact economic growth and the U.S. dollar's position against the Japanese yen. A negative trade balance—meaning imports exceed exports—also points to economic weakness and declining competitiveness of U.S. goods on the global market.

If extremely negative data is released, increased pressure on the U.S. dollar may be expected, similar to yesterday's session. However, it is worth noting that the market does not always react unambiguously to economic indicators. Sometimes investors' expectations are already priced in, and the actual data does not have a significant impact. In addition, future USD/JPY dynamics will be influenced by factors such as the Bank of Japan's upcoming rate decision next week.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 156.01 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 156.61 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 156.61, I will exit buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from that level). You can count on growth in the pair only after strong U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 155.74 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 156.01 and 156.61 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.74 (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.29, where I will exit sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if the data is weak. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of 156.01 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 155.74 and 155.29 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when deciding to enter the market. Before major fundamental report releases, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the start, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the British pound

The first test of 1.3373 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The second test of 1.3373 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the pound) to play out. As a result, the pair fell by 20 points.

In the absence of important fundamental statistics from the UK, the British pound made several attempts to continue its bullish momentum, but without much success. The pound's further movement will largely depend on the release of key U.S. macroeconomic data scheduled for the second half of the day. Figures are expected on U.S. initial jobless claims and the trade balance. If the actual numbers turn out significantly worse than forecast, this may increase pressure on the dollar and trigger a new wave of buying in GBP/USD.

Traders will closely monitor the difference between expectations and actual data to assess the potential impact on the currency market. Particular attention will be paid to components of the jobless claims report. A significant increase in continued claims may indicate deeper labor market issues than previously assumed. As for the trade balance, a substantial increase in the deficit may signal weakening competitiveness of the U.S. economy and encourage further dollar weakening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3385 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.3424 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3424, I will exit buy trades and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from this level). Pound growth today is likely only after weak U.S. data. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.3367 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.3385 and 1.3424 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level of 1.3367 (red line on the chart) is broken, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. Sellers' key target will be 1.3340, where I will exit sell trades and immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pound may return today if U.S. data is strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.3385 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.3367 and 1.3340 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you need a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 11th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the euro

The first test of 1.1697 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test of 1.1697 shortly afterward coincided with the MACD being in the overbought zone, which allowed scenario No. 2 (selling the euro) to play out. As a result, the pair fell only about 10 points.

After yesterday's rise triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the euro today showed growth in the first half of the day but failed to break above the upper boundary of the weekly range. However, despite this consolidation, overall sentiment in the currency market still favors the euro. Market participants eagerly await the release of key U.S. economic data that may influence further price dynamics.

Weekly U.S. data on initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and wholesale inventories will be crucial. A detailed analysis of jobless claims will provide insight into the state of the U.S. labor market. An increase in claims may indicate slower hiring and a likely rise in unemployment, which in turn may negatively affect the dollar. A decline in claims, conversely, indicates a stable labor market and potential support for consumer demand. The trade balance, representing the difference between exports and imports, is an important indicator of the global competitiveness of U.S. goods and services. Weak figures would also lead to renewed EUR/USD growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1715 (green line on the chart) with the goal of rising to 1.1755. At 1.1755, I plan to exit the market and also open a reverse sell trade, expecting a 30–35-point move from the entry point. Strong euro growth can be expected as the bullish market continues. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1694 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1715 and 1.1755 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1694 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1655, where I plan to exit the market and instantly buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move from the level). Pressure on the pair will return only if U.S. labor market data is very strong. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1715 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1694 and 1.1655 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price spikes. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are, from the outset, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – December 11th

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Given the very small spike in volatility in the first half of the day, no valid entry points were formed for the Mean Reversion strategy. Using the Momentum strategy, I traded only the Japanese yen.

The euro and the pound rose in the first half of the day, continuing yesterday's bullish market following the Fed's decision to cut interest rates. However, after the initial spike caused by news from Washington, momentum weakened, and the single currency stabilized near 1.1700 against the U.S. dollar. Since the market had already largely priced in the expected rate cut, new catalysts are needed for further euro appreciation. Nonetheless, despite some consolidation, the overall tone in the currency markets remains positive for risk assets.

Next, the focus will shift to U.S. data on weekly initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and changes in wholesale inventories. Close monitoring of initial jobless claims will help assess the current state of the U.S. labor market. A rise in claims may signal slower hiring and a potential increase in unemployment, which in turn could negatively affect consumer spending, economic growth, and the U.S. dollar, which would continue to fall against risk assets.

The trade balance, reflecting the difference between exports and imports, is an important indicator of the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services on the global market. An expanding U.S. trade deficit would point to reliance on imports and may put pressure on the national currency. The session will conclude with the wholesale inventories report. An increase in inventories may indicate weakening demand and potential production cuts in the future—negative for the economy and for the dollar.

If the statistics are strong, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue using the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout) for the Second Half of the Day

For EURUSD:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1720 may lead to euro growth toward 1.1750 and 1.1777
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1690 may lead to a decline toward 1.1670 and 1.1650

For GBPUSD:

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3389 may lead to pound growth toward 1.3416 and 1.3440
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3375 may lead to a decline toward 1.3350 and 1.3320

For USDJPY:

• Buying on a breakout of 156.10 may lead to dollar growth toward 156.55 and 156.94
• Selling on a breakout of 155.75 may lead to dollar sell-offs toward 155.40 and 155.05

Mean Reversion Strategy (Reversal) for the Second Half of the Day

For EURUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.1716 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.1675 with a return to this level

For GBPUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3383 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3350 with a return to this level

For AUDUSD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 0.6665 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 0.6624 with a return to this level

For USDCAD:

• Look for selling opportunities after a failed breakout above 1.3825 with a return below this level
• Look for buying opportunities after a failed breakout below 1.3794 with a return to this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US dollar dropping like rock

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As usual, the market reacted sharply to the results of the last FOMC meeting, then began to reassess the Fed's agenda before shooting up again. As a result, the bears in EUR/USD showed no signs of counterattacking, and the initiative was completely seized by the bulls. The major currency pair soared to its highest level since mid-October, and I fear this might not be the limit.

At first glance, everything unfolded just as expected. The federal funds rate fell from 4.00% to 3.75%, and Jerome Powell stated that the Fed feels comfortable. Borrowing costs shifted to neutral levels that neither stimulate nor cool the economy. Everything went according to plan; however, the swift rise of the euro suggests that the central bank delivered a "dovish" surprise.

Market expectations for the Fed's key interest rate

Surprisingly, the futures market has lowered the odds of a monetary policy easing in January to 20% and does not expect rate cuts until April. However, it should be understood that investors were hoping for nearly five dissenting hawks, but they actually got only two.

The Fed's announcement of the resumption of QE also contributed to the decline of the USD index. The central bank will begin purchasing bonds in the amount of $40 billion. This was presented as an intention to calm the repo market. However, it could actually become part of the American administration's plan to lower Treasury yields. It's no surprise that talk of fiscal dominance and threats to the independence of the Fed is circulating in the market again.

Inflation expectations in the US

Adding to this are Jerome Powell's concerns about cooling labor market conditions and downward revisions to the inflation forecast for 2026 from 3.0% to 2.5%, which clarifies the situation. The doves have outmaneuvered the hawks, indicating that the cycle of monetary policy easing will continue. And with that, the upward trend in EUR/USD is likely to persist.

The major currency pair didn't even wait for the employment report outside of the agricultural sector for October and November, due on December 16, nor the potential drop in stock indices due to Oracle's issues. The euro took the bull by the horns and surged northward. In a week, the ECB will likely signal the end of the monetary expansion cycle and may even discuss an increase in deposit rates. In such conditions, how can the US dollar compete with the single European currency?

The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve has faithfully served and is still benefitting the bulls in EUR/USD.

Technical picture

From a technical viewpoint, on the daily chart of the major currency pair, the breakout of the upper border of the short-term consolidation range of 1.1615-1.1660 has allowed for the accumulation or establishment of long positions. These should be held, and EUR/USD could be bought periodically. Target levels are set at 1.1760 and 1.1865.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin at $1 million in just 10 years

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While Bitcoin currently shows no signs of upward momentum or any signs of life at all, which undermines its chances for future growth, I came across an interesting valuation model from Bitwise suggesting that a target price of $1.3 million for BTC by 2035 might even be too conservative.

The model is based on the idea that Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to gold—often used as a benchmark—could rise from the current 9% to 25%. Even this increase would be sufficient to push the price above $1,000,000 per coin.

Furthermore, the company does not account for the potential growth of gold's market capitalization, which is expected to continue increasing. If gold's price rises even further, Bitcoin's valuation of $1.3 million may seem even more modest.

Of course, making such long-term forecasts is a thankless task considering the unpredictability of the crypto market. However, the underlying idea in the model of capital reallocating from gold to Bitcoin appears quite logical. Bitcoin has several advantages over gold, such as ease of storage and transfer, making it a more attractive asset for the younger generation of investors. Additionally, institutional investors are increasingly showing interest in Bitcoin, which also contributes to its long-term growth.

However, it's important to remember that this is just one possible scenario, and Bitcoin's future remains uncertain.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $90,800 level, which opens a direct path to $93,000, and from there it's just a step away to $95,000. The furthest target will be the peak around $97,300, with a breakthrough at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $88,100 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $85,800, with the furthest target being the $83,200 region.

As for Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above the $3,233 level opens a direct road to $3,349. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,474, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $3,126 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $3,023, with the furthest target being the $2,924 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Who leads in Fed chair race? Trump sparks intrigue again. Trader's calendar for December 11 and 12

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The Federal Reserve concluded its December meeting with another rate cut—this time reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The new target range is now between 3.50% and 3.75%. This marks the third easing of the year, following steps taken in September and October, and the market had already priced in this scenario. In essence, rates have returned to their lowest levels since 2022. However, the outward smoothness of this decision hides a significant divide within the regulator itself. For the first time since 2019, three Fed representatives opposed the final decision:

• Of the 12 voting members, three voted against it.
• Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee advocated for a pause.
• Stephen Mihm, on the other hand, argued for a more aggressive move (a cut of 0.5%).

The context is also challenging. The economy is slowing, the labor market has cooled, and inflation continues to exceed the target of 2% by about one point. During the press conference, Jerome Powell described the situation as "complex" and emphasized that the committee unanimously recognizes heightened price risks and signs of a weakening labor market. After three rate cuts in 2025, the regulator is poised to approach 2026 with more caution. The latest forecasts indicate only one potential easing next year, exactly the same number the Fed projected in September.

The official statement again included phrasing about the "magnitude and timing" of future actions. This signals that officials do not intend to rush and want to more thoroughly evaluate incoming macroeconomic data and the balance of risks. The disagreements within the Fed only heighten the intrigue:

• Six members would prefer to avoid a December reduction.
• Seven believe that easing will not be needed at all in 2026.
• Three are convinced that the current rate level is already below neutral.
• Others suggest varying degrees of easing—from one to six steps.

The market is closely monitoring this range of opinions. This will determine how cautiously the Fed will navigate amid a slowing economy and unstable inflation dynamics.

Authorities have also adjusted macroeconomic guidelines, laying out a more confident scenario for the coming year. Inflation is expected to decline to 2.5% in 2026, down from previously forecasted 2.6%. By the end of 2025, it should slow to 3%. The GDP forecast for next year has been raised to 2.3% from the previous 1.8%. The growth estimate for the current year has been increased by one-tenth to 1.7%. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 4.4% in 2026. Currently, it stands at 4.4%, consistent with the previous forecast. The Fed also confirmed its intention to resume purchases of short-term Treasury securities if necessary, to ensure sufficient reserves in the banking sector and maintain a stable balance sheet size.

The information backdrop ahead of the meeting was limited. The publication of several key statistical series was delayed due to a temporary government shutdown that lasted throughout October and part of November. For instance, data on the personal consumption expenditures index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) was released with a two-month lag. The core index rose by 2.8% in September, which is one-tenth lower than the August figure. The labor market exhibited an unexpected recovery in September, with 119,000 jobs created after a decline of 4,000 in August. This trend has continued the uneven trajectory of recent months:

• Negative value in June
• Growth in July
• Decline in August
• New rise in September

The situation with the data is expected to normalize starting next week. A report on November employment will be released on Tuesday, followed by fresh inflation indicators. So far, the forecast for the Fed's interest rate remains unchanged since the September round, with the Fed still anticipating one reduction of 25 basis points in 2026. The accompanying statement noted that economic activity is growing at a moderate pace, the labor market is losing momentum, and inflation remains above the target level. The committee acknowledged increased uncertainty in the forecast and risks of weakened employment.

The market reacted moderately positively to the December Fed decision, with the S&P 500 rising by about 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite managed to reduce its morning decline, while the Dow Jones intensified its gains. This dynamic reflects investor expectations that had already priced in policy easing and received confirmation of this. Analysts note that future communication from the regulator may become more challenging. Standard Chartered economists Steve Englander and John Davis highlighted this concern even before the meeting. They pointed out the combination of several factors:

• Disagreements within the FOMC
• Disruptions in statistics due to the prolonged government shutdown
• Jerome Powell's term expiring in May
• Uncertainty surrounding his successor

Collectively, they argue that all these factors complicate the perception of Fed signals and increase market skepticism regarding any long-term guidance.

President Donald Trump has entered the final phase of selecting candidates for chair of the Federal Reserve. The Financial Times notes that several candidates have made it to the final interview stage. Sources indicate that alongside White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, three additional candidates are being considered. Hassett, according to the newspaper's sources, remains the frontrunner despite concerns from some investors regarding his closeness to the president and the risks of excessive policy easing. However, the continuation of interviews indicates that his appointment is not considered a foregone conclusion.

Trump has emphasized that he is considering several candidates, although he has already developed his vision for the future head of the central bank. Currently, the list of contenders includes Hassett, Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, as well as Rick Rieder, BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income. Trump and Bessent are expected to have another meeting with one of the candidates next week, with a final decision planned for early January. The term of the current Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, expires in May 2026, but he will remain a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors until January 2028.

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December 11

December 11, 2:50 AM / ** / Japan / Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for Large Manufacturing Firms in Q4 / Previous: -4.8% / Actual: 3.8% / Forecast: 4.1% / USD/JPY – down

The BSI for Q3 came in at 3.8% after reporting -4.8% previously. This marks the first positive value over three periods. The improvement is attributed to an increase in export shipments. Companies ramped up shipments to the US ahead of the introduction of new American tariffs. A recent US presidential order established baseline tariffs of 15% on a broad range of Japanese goods. The BSI reflects the assessment of the business environment by large manufacturers and remains an important indicator of economic dynamics. Respondents expect an increase to 3.9% in Q4, followed by a slight decline in early 2026. If publication confirms the forecast (4.1%), the yen could receive support.

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December 11, 3:01 AM / United Kingdom / ** / November Housing Price Balance / Previous: -17% / Actual: -19% / Forecast: -21% / GBP/USD – down

The UK housing price balance decreased to -19% in October, down from -17% the previous month. This figure continues to signal downward pressure on housing prices. The most significant weakness is observed in the southeast, London, and East Anglia. A modest decline is expected in the next three months, with the RICS forecast estimating -12%. The data remain above the September low (-21%), indicating a moderate softening of the market. However, the annual outlook is more optimistic, with some participants predicting a turnaround to positive dynamics. If the November figure aligns with the forecast (-21%), the British pound may weaken.

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December 11, 3:30 AM / Australia / ** / Employment Growth in November / Previous: 6,470 / Actual: 55,256 / Forecast: -5,000 / AUD/USD – down

Full-time employment in Australia increased by 55,256 people in October. This figure is significantly above the average values observed since 1978. The historical maximum was recorded in 2021, and the minimum in 2020. The data reflect increased demand for labor and a recovery in certain segments of the labor market. If the November estimate comes in near the forecast (-5,000), the Australian dollar is likely to decline.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / Canada / *** / Trade Balance for September (Deficit) / Previous: -3.82 billion / Actual: -6.32 billion / Forecast: -4.3 billion / USD/CAD – down

Canada's trade deficit widened to -6.3 billion Canadian dollars in August, up from -3.8 billion the previous month. This figure is among the largest recorded in history. Exports fell by 3% (to 60.6 billion), with the most significant decline occurring in metals and minerals, where price and volume reductions led to a 7.6% drop. Specific categories, including lumber, also showed weakness. The impact was exacerbated by American tariffs that reduced shipments to the US. Imports increased by 0.9% (to 66.9 billion). A sharp rise in purchases of precious metals offset the declines of previous months. Meanwhile, energy imports fell, which reduced receipts from the US. The bilateral trade surplus weakened. If the September figure is close to the forecast (-4.3 billion), the Canadian dollar could gain support.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / United States / *** / Trade Balance for September (Deficit) / Previous: -78.154 billion / Actual: -59.55 billion / Forecast: -63.3 billion / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

The US trade deficit narrowed to 59.6 billion dollars in August, down from 78.2 billion the previous month. Imports decreased by 5.1% (to 340.4 billion), with the primary drop attributed to non-monetary gold. Purchases also declined in the following categories:

• Food
• Computer components
• Telecommunications equipment
• Jewelry
• Transportation services

Certain categories demonstrated modest growth, including computers, pharmaceuticals, and services in telecommunications, IT, and tourism. Exports increased by 0.1% (to 280.8 billion). Support came from crude oil shipments, computers, travel services, and revenues from intellectual property. Sales of pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and gold decreased. In key areas, the deficit with China increased, remained stable with Mexico, while the gap with Vietnam, Taiwan, and the EU narrowed. If the September result aligns with the forecast (-63.3 billion), pressure on the dollar will persist.

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December 11, 4:30 PM / United States / *** / Weekly Initial Jobless Claims / Previous: 218,000 / Actual: 191,000 / Forecast: 220,000 / USDX (6-currency USD index) – down

Initial claims dropped to 191,000 at the end of November, down 27,000 for the week. This figure is significantly below market expectations and represents the lowest level since September 2022. This period includes holidays, which traditionally increase data volatility. Continuing claims fell to 1.939 million. The trend suggests low layoff activity amid a moderate hiring pace. The number of claims from federal employees also decreased. If the new report comes close to the forecast (220,000), the dollar may weaken.

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December 12

December 12, 7:30 AM / Japan / ** / Industrial Production Growth for October (Final) / Previous: -1.6% / Actual: 3.8% / Forecast: 1.5% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's industrial production rose by 3.8% in October after a significant decline earlier. The data indicate a recovery in output across major sectors. Historically, this indicator has shown high volatility, but the current gain surpasses long-term averages. The improvement reflects increased external demand and higher factory utilization rates. If the final result is close to the forecast (1.5%), the yen's position may weaken.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / Germany / ** / Inflation Rate for November (Final) / Previous: 2.4% / Actual: 2.3% / Forecast: 2.3% / EUR/USD – volatile

Germany's annual inflation rate was 2.3% in November, matching preliminary estimates and repeating October's level. The figure remains below the forecast. Inflation in services held steady at 3.5%, while commodity price dynamics slowed to 1.1%. Food prices increased moderately, while energy costs decreased less than the previous month. On a monthly basis, the consumer price index declined by 0.2% after a 0.3% increase in October. Core inflation slowed to 2.7%. The harmonized EU index rose to 2.6% on a year-on-year basis, exceeding both last month's estimate and the forecast. The monthly decrease was 0.5%. If the final figure remains close to the forecast (2.3%), the euro's reaction will be mixed.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / GDP Growth for October / Previous: 1.2% / Actual: 1.1% / Forecast: 1.4% / GBP/USD – up

The UK economy grew by 1.1% in September after previously recording 1.2%. This figure fell short of expectations. The data continue to reflect a moderate recovery in the economy following a volatile period over recent years. Long-term statistics show significant fluctuations. However, the current rates remain in positive territory. If the October result approaches the forecast (1.4%), the British pound could gain ground.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / Industrial Production Growth for October / Previous: -0.5% / Actual: -2.5% / Forecast: -1.2% / GBP/USD – up

UK industrial production decreased by 2.5% in September. This figure was worse than expected and reflects a deterioration in business activity across key segments. The decline was the most pronounced since July 2024. The sector is under pressure from:

• Weakening demand
• Reduced output

If the actual data for October come closer to the forecast (-1.2%), the pound may receive some support.

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December 12, 10:00 AM / United Kingdom / *** / Construction Output Growth for October / Previous: 1.1% / Actual: 1.3% / Forecast: 1.6% / GBP/USD – up

Construction output increased by 1.3% in September, exceeding expectations. The growth was driven by new projects, which contributed 2.5%. Repair and maintenance decreased for the first time in several months. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.2% increase, offsetting the previous decline. In the third quarter, total volume grew by 0.1%. If the October figure comes close to the forecast (1.6%), the pound may strengthen.

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December 12, 4:30 PM / Canada / *** / Construction Permits Growth in October / Previous: -4.0% / Actual: 4.5% / Forecast: -1.2% / USD/CAD – up

Construction permits in Canada rose by 4.5% in September, reaching 11.7 billion Canadian dollars. This figure rebounded from a decline in August and exceeded market expectations. The residential segment increased by 4.8% due to:

• An uptick in multi-family projects in Alberta and Quebec
• Growth in private construction activity in Ontario

Non-residential permits grew by 4.0%, driven by the expansion of commercial and industrial properties in the same regions. A partial easing was observed in institutional projects. If the October data aligns with the forecast (-1.2%), the Canadian dollar may gain value.

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December 12, 7:00 PM / Russia / ** / GDP Growth in Q3 / Previous: 1.4% / Actual: 1.1% / Forecast: 0.6% / USD/RUB – up

Russia's GDP increased by 1.1% year-on-year in the second quarter. However, the growth rate has slowed compared to the previous period. This figure marks the lowest level in the last two years. The dynamics are associated with:

• Increased government spending
• Decreased investment activity

A weak external environment is also exerting pressure: crude oil exports have slowed, gas supplies have decreased due to sanctions, and trade with China is constrained by domestic market factors. A strong ruble after the increase in the key rate has further limited export revenues. If the actual third-quarter figure aligns with the forecast (0.6%), the ruble may weaken.

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December 12, 9:00 PM / United States / ** / Weekly Total Rig Count / Previous: 544 units / Actual: 549 units / Forecast: – / Brent – volatile

The number of active drilling rigs in the US increased to 549 units in the first week of December. This rise continues the moderate activity in the energy sector. The dynamics remain far from historical highs but reflect stable demand for extraction. Statistics indicate a gradual recovery from pandemic lows. The absence of a forecast makes the reaction of the oil market uncertain.

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• December 11, 12:00 PM / France / IEA Oil Market Report / Brent
• December 11, 12:00 PM / United Kingdom / Speech by BoE Financial Policy Committee member Randall Kroszner / GBP/USD
• December 11, 1:00 PM / United Kingdom / Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey / GBP/USD
• December 11 / OPEC Monthly Report / Brent
• December 12, 4:00 PM / United States / Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson / USDX
• December 12, 4:30 PM / United States / Speech by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack / USDX
• December 12, 6:35 PM / United States / Speech by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee / USDX

Additionally, speeches from representatives of leading central banks are expected during these days. Their comments typically generate volatility in the currency market, as they may indicate future rate plans by regulators.

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The economic calendar can be accessed via the link provided. All indicators are reported on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Monthly data are noted as (m/m). An asterisk (*) indicates the importance of the report for the assets available on the InstaForex platform, ranked by increasing significance. Please remember that the publication times are in Moscow time (GMT +3.00). You can open a trading account here. To keep your tools readily accessible, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app. Also, watch the market video news from the InstaForex Group.

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US Market News Digest for December 11

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq face challenges following disappointing Oracle results

Yesterday, stock indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.33%, and the Dow Jones jumped by 1.05%. However, the rally in the stock market, driven by the Fed's interest rate cuts, has waned as disappointing results from Oracle pressured tech stocks.

Oracle's earnings report raised concerns about the overall resilience of the technology sector, which has been the primary driver of market growth in recent months. The decline in Oracle's shares triggered a chain reaction affecting other major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. Investors fear that current interest rates, while potentially set to decrease in the future, are already negatively impacting corporate earnings. Follow the link for more details.

Fed concludes December meeting with another 25 bp rate cut

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its December meeting with another rate cut—this time by an additional 25 basis points. Its target range now stands at 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third easing of the year following the measures taken in September and October, a scenario that the market had anticipated. In essence, rates have returned to their lowest levels since 2022. However, the superficial smoothness of this decision masks a significant divide within the regulatory body.

For the first time since 2019, three Fed representatives opposed the final decision: out of the 12 voting members, three voted against it. The economy is slowing, the labor market has cooled, and inflation remains approximately one point above the 2% target. During the press conference, Jerome Powell described the situation as "complex" and emphasized that the committee unanimously acknowledges heightened price risks and signs of a weakening labor market. Follow the link for more details.

Stock market responses positively to Fed rate cut

The US stock market benefited from a triple advantage provided by the Fed. In addition to raising its GDP forecast for 2026 from 1.8% to 2.3% and lowering inflation estimates from 3% to 2.6%, the central bank did not rule out further monetary easing. Jerome Powell spoke about productivity growth driven by AI technologies. According to the Fed chair, the impact of job declines due to AI is not yet being fully felt.

In the latest FOMC forecasts, there is one act of monetary expansion projected for 2026, while the futures market is counting on two. Everything will depend on the data regarding the American economy. However, the lack of a safety cushion in terms of expectations for further decreases in the federal funds rate may make the S&P 500 vulnerable to sell-offs in technology stocks. Follow the link for more details.

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