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GBP/USD Analysis on October 24, 2025

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The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward wave structure, but in recent weeks, it has taken on a complex and ambiguous form. The pound has fallen too sharply, and as a result, the trend segment that began on August 1 now looks unclear.

The first idea that comes to mind is a complication of the presumed wave 4, which may take on a three-wave form, with each of its subwaves also consisting of three waves. In this case, we can expect the pair to decline toward the 1.31 and 1.30 levels.

However, the downward wave structure that began on September 17 has already formed a three-wave pattern. From here, there are two possibilities: either the structure extends into a five-wave pattern, or we see the formation of a new upward sequence. Naturally, I expect only an increase in quotations, regardless of the wave structure. In my view, the news background is currently so one-sided that no other outcome should be expected. Yet in recent weeks, buyers have shown no initiative whatsoever.

At the moment, much on the foreign exchange market depends on Donald Trump's policies. The market fears a Federal Reserve policy easing, driven by weak labor market data and pressure from Trump, while the president continues to introduce new tariff packages, signaling the continuation of the global trade war. Thus, the news background remains unfavorable for the U.S. dollar.

The GBP/USD rate rose by 25 basis points on Friday — the market's reaction to six major reports. The U.K. released data on business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as retail sales. Even without listing the figures, it is clear that all of them exceeded market expectations — yet the market did not react at all.

In the second half of the day, traders paid attention only to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in 0.1% below expectations, at 3%. Because inflation rose more weakly than expected, demand for the dollar naturally fell, as the market is now 100% certain that the Fed will cut rates next week.

However, it seems that all other reports this week (and there weren't many) were simply thrown into the trash bin. For a long time, the dollar could do nothing against market sentiment, which consistently sold it off under the pressure of the news background. By late October, that background remains unchanged — but for some unexplained reason, selling has stopped.

Now, traders ignore both positive news for the pound and negative news for the dollar. The wave pattern remains unchanged in that it still implies the formation of an upward trend segment. Next week, the Fed will conduct a second consecutive round of monetary easing, but traders seem unconcerned. The government shutdown continues, and Trump's tariffs keep expanding and rising every month. Yet even these factors no longer interest the market in the second month of autumn.

General Conclusions

The wave picture of the GBP/USD pair has evolved. We are still dealing with an upward impulsive trend segment, but its internal wave structure is becoming increasingly complex. Wave 4 is taking on a three-wave form, with a structure several times longer than wave 2.

The latest downward three-wave structure appears to be complete. If that is indeed the case, the upward movement within the global wave structure may continue, with initial targets around the 1.38 and 1.40 levels.

The larger-scale wave pattern looks almost ideal, even though wave 4 slightly exceeds the high of wave 1. However, it's worth remembering that perfect wave patterns exist only in textbooks — in practice, things are far more complex. At this point, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios to the upward trend segment.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is uncertainty about the market situation, it's better not to enter.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use Stop Loss orders for protection.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Analysis on October 24, 2025

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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed — unfortunately, not for the better. It's still too early to conclude that the upward trend segment has ended, but the latest decline in the euro has made it necessary to clarify the wave structure.

We can now see a series of three-wave patterns (a-b-c), which may be part of the global wave 4 within the overall upward trend. In this case, wave 4 has taken on an unnaturally extended form, but overall, the wave structure remains coherent and intact.

The formation of the upward trend continues, while the news background still largely favors currencies other than the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The confrontation with the Federal Reserve continues. The market's dovish expectations regarding the Fed's rate policy are growing. In the U.S., the government shutdown drags on. The market holds a low opinion of Trump's first nine months in office, even though economic growth in Q2 reached nearly 4%.

In my view, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, with potential targets extending up to the 1.25 level. This means that the euro may still decline for some time, even without any clear reason for it (as in the last three weeks). Nevertheless, the wave structure remains consistent.

The EUR/USD pair rose by 15 basis points on Friday — the result of what was expected to be the most important day of the week in terms of news background. Let's recall: today, Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States released their October business activity indexes, and the U.S. additionally published its inflation report — a key release ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates.

Among all these reports, the market reacted only to U.S. inflation data. Undoubtedly, that was the most important and interesting release, and although forecasts missed the mark, the PMI data also offered a few surprises.

For quite some time now, markets have grown accustomed to Eurozone business activity coming in below expectations more often than not. However, this time, all four European reports came in above forecasts — not by much, but still above.

• Germany's manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations by 0.1 point, while the services PMI came in 2.2 points higher.
• The Eurozone manufacturing PMI beat expectations by 0.5 points, and the services PMI by 1.5 points.

Four out of four reports were positive for the euro, yet the market showed no willingness to buy the European currency. The construction of complex corrective structures continues, and the market fails to react to news, even when it's clearly positive.

General Conclusions

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure still largely depends on news factors related to Trump's decisions, as well as the foreign and domestic policies of the new U.S. administration. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At present, we are likely seeing the formation of corrective wave 4, which is taking on a complex and extended form. Therefore, in the near future, I continue to consider only buying positions. By the end of the year, I expect the euro to rise toward 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level.

On the smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not entirely standard, since corrective waves differ in size. For example, major wave 2 is smaller than internal wave 2 of wave 3 — though such cases do happen. Let me remind you: it is best to identify clear and readable structures on charts, rather than focusing on every single wave. At present, the upward structure raises almost no questions.

Key Principles of My Analysis

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often lead to revisions.
2. If there is uncertainty about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use Stop Loss orders for protection.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The British Pound Rises on Economic Data

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The British pound rose slightly after data showed that the UK private sector expanded faster than expected in October, with economic indicators showing no signs of anxiety ahead of the almost inevitable tax increases in the Labor government's budget next month.

According to preliminary estimates published on Friday, the S&P Global composite PMI rose to 51.1 from 50.1 in the previous month. The figure came in above economists' forecast of 50.5 and remained above the 50.0 threshold, which indicates growth. The most notable improvement was seen among British manufacturers, who returned to expansion for the first time since October last year.

This surge of optimism in the UK economy, like a ray of sunlight through the clouds, offers hope for further recovery. The growth of the manufacturing sector, which has long struggled under the weight of inflation and trade tariffs, is a particularly important signal. Businesses appear to have adapted to the new environment and are once again finding opportunities for development. Despite these positive trends, caution remains warranted. Global economic risks — including geopolitical tensions and the potential for recession — still pose serious threats to the UK economy. It is important that the government continues to support businesses, creating favorable conditions for investment and innovation.

It is clear that companies have become more optimistic about their growth prospects for the coming year, despite mounting expectations that on November 26, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will raise taxes by billions of pounds. This stands in stark contrast to the situation a year ago, when confidence plunged ahead of Labor's first budget, amid repeated ministerial warnings about "difficult decisions" to come.

According to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data released earlier on Friday, retail sales unexpectedly rose in September thanks to strong demand for home goods and jewelry. A GfK survey conducted the night before also showed that consumer confidence in October climbed to its highest level recorded in 2025, while the component tracking intentions to make major purchases reached its highest level since early 2022.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, buyers need to break above the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only this will allow a move toward 1.3385, a level that may prove difficult to overcome. The ultimate target will be the 1.3420 level.

In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control of 1.3315. If they succeed, a breakout below this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD toward the 1.3280 low, with the prospect of extending the fall to 1.3250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for October 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 152.90 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the dollar — which resulted in only a 10-point decline.

The second half of the trading day promises to become an arena of intense market battles, with new U.S. economic indicators taking center stage. The publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the opening gong, resonating across the entire financial spectrum — especially given its delayed release due to the government shutdown. If the figures exceed expectations, reinforcing the view of persistent inflationary pressure, the dollar will strengthen, and the USD/JPY pair will move higher.

Next on stage come the business activity indexes, which reflect the pulse of the U.S. economy. The manufacturing PMI will capture ongoing tension in supply chains, where geopolitical storms — from trade wars to the energy crisis — continue to sow chaos. Weak readings here would put pressure on the dollar. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will serve as the final act. Strong data across all fronts — CPI, PMI, and ISM — will likely push USD/JPY into another rally, potentially breaking through the 153.00 level and reinforcing the dollar's global dominance.

As for intraday trading strategy, I plan to focus mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the price reaches the 153.06 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 153.84 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.84, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point correction. Further upside in the pair is possible within the framework of a new trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 152.86 level, when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 153.06 and 153.84.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after the price breaks below 152.86 (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.19, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point rebound. Strong downward pressure could return if U.S. inflation falls sharply.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.06 level, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 152.86 and 152.19.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to take into account overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid exposure to sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade with large volumes.

And remember: For successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions, made based on the current market situation, are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for October 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3309 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential — especially given that buyers had been defending this level throughout the week.

The UK manufacturing PMI in October approached the 50-point mark. This improvement allowed pound holders to overcome the pressure felt in the first half of the trading day. The increase in this indicator, which reflects the state of the industrial sector, came as an unexpected signal of optimism for investors. In September, when the PMI fell to 46.2, the market recorded clear signs of a slowdown: orders were shrinking, inventories were building up, and export prospects were dimming under the influence of global trade barriers. However, the October data published by S&P Global changed the mood. The reading of 49.6, though still below the 50 threshold that signals expansion, indicates stabilization.

The second half of the trading day could bring volatility, especially after the release of key U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. This indicator, as a barometer of inflation trends, can turn market sentiment upside down. Analysts expect that the September numbers will show a rise in prices. If the actual data turns out to be softer than expected, the Federal Reserve may continue to cut interest rates more actively, which would support the pound.

In addition to the CPI, investors will closely monitor the composite business activity indices — the manufacturing PMI and the ISM services index. The trio of economic releases will be rounded out by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

As for intraday trading strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the 1.3335 level (green line on the chart), targeting growth to the 1.3394 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3394, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point pullback. A strong rise in the pound today is only possible if U.S. inflation turns out to be very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3303 level, when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3335 and 1.3394.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below the 1.3303 level (red line on the chart), which will likely lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3253 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point rebound. The pound may drop sharply in the second half of the day.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3335 level, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3303 and 1.3253.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated price level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated price level for setting Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions, based on the current market situation, are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for October 24th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the European Currency

The price test at 1.1615 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by only 15 points.

Euro buyers reacted positively to the return of the Eurozone manufacturing PMI to a neutral level. The recovery of the manufacturing PMI to 50 points indicates positive shifts in the dynamics of the economy.

In the second half of the day, investors' focus will inevitably shift to important U.S. inflation data, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its core version, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy. These figures set the tone for expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. In an environment of global turbulence—where inflationary risks from supply chain disruptions and geopolitical conflicts continue to grow—even a minor deviation from expectations can trigger volatility, strengthening or weakening the dollar.

At the same time, updated data on U.S. business activity indexes in manufacturing, services, and the composite PMI will also be released. These indicators capture the rhythm of the economy. Manufacturing fluctuating within the 50–52 range points to a fragile balance between demand and recession risks, while the services sector reflects stable consumer demand. The composite PMI, integrating both sectors, will provide a comprehensive picture — if it exceeds 52, it will reinforce confidence in a smooth normalization of the U.S. economy, potentially supporting the dollar.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, it is possible to buy the euro at around 1.1631 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1691. At 1.1691, I plan to exit the market and also open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today is only likely if U.S. inflation drops sharply.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1601 level, at a moment when the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1631 and 1.1691.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1601 level (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1540, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair may rise significantly if inflation increases.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1631 level, when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1601 and 1.1540.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – expected level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note for Beginner Forex Traders

New traders in the Forex market should make entry decisions very carefully. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: To trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions, based on current market fluctuations, are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for October 24

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Investor optimism supports market

Investors are maintaining a positive outlook on the market despite ongoing risks, including the potential escalation of trade conflicts with China.

Strong corporate earnings reports and improving macroeconomic indicators are reinforcing hopes for a recovery in the S&P 500 index following a period of volatility.

Experts note that if the current pace of corporate profit growth continues, the market may resume its trajectory toward new highs.

Follow the link for more details.

Market rises on expectations of US-China talks

US stock indices ended the day higher amid growing anticipation of talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which eased concerns over a potential trade war.

Investors are reacting positively to news suggesting a possible relaxation of tariff restrictions, which supports risk appetite.

However, the upcoming release of fresh inflation data could adjust expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's next policy steps.

Follow the link for more details.

As a reminder, InstaForex offers the best trading conditions for stocks, indices, and derivatives, helping traders effectively capitalize on market fluctuations.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump and Xi Jinping's meeting: what to expect and how to prepare

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The US Dollar Index gained 0.37% over the week, reaching 98.92—investors are cautiously placing bets on the prospects of the American currency. The reason is simple: next week, Donald Trump will meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea, and this meeting has the potential to change the trajectory of the trade war between the US and China. Expectations are mixed: some hope for a ceasefire, while others see the risk of further escalation. The question is what result the summit will yield and how it will affect the markets. Let's break it down.

Trump is aiming for a quick victory. What is he ready to use to achieve it?

Ahead of the summit, the US president describes the task as simply as possible: he wants a "quick victory." For Trump, this means extending the pause on tariff hikes in exchange for specific actions from Beijing—resuming soybean purchases, taking tough measures against fentanyl, and lifting restrictions on rare earth element exports.

At the same time, he openly states that he does not intend to remove all trade barriers and is ready to keep the restrictions he deems necessary. "I think we will agree on everything," he said to the press on Thursday, displaying the kind of confidence that's good for media effect.

The paradox is that Trump's ambitions go far beyond narrow economic issues: he openly expresses a desire to achieve difficult agreements on nuclear weapons and to get Xi Jinping to apply pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the invasion of Ukraine.

In his calculations, Trump sees this as a chance to bolster his image as a peacemaker—a persona that, in his opinion, could play to his advantage following international events, including the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. For him, this is not just a trade meeting, but a platform for political marketing.

However, his tendency to make decisions on the fly and his desire to bring home a result by next Thursday—along with Trump's usual style, where speed takes precedence over depth—raises the risk that the outcome will not be a comprehensive settlement but rather just a temporary de-escalation.

What the markets expecting and why analysts are maintaining pessimism

Financial players and economists are approaching the summit with cautious realism rather than optimism. Joseph Capurso from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia succinctly states his expectations: the best outcome to hope for is another trade truce.

His words: "In our view, the best outcome will be another trade truce... Our expectations for a positive outcome from the meeting are low. We believe market expectations are also modest, which implies only a moderate reaction from currencies next week," reflect the healthy dose of skepticism from markets that have become accustomed to promises and bold statements not always leading to structural changes.

Henrietta Levin, former White House advisor on China, agrees: both sides want stability, but, according to her, "China holds the cards." This is not just a figure of speech: China indeed possesses a range of tools to exert influence—from control over materials critical to technology to access to large markets.

For markets, it's not the grand rhetoric that matters but rather the balance of real market power and political will. If expectations remain low, volatility will likely stay within moderate levels, and currency reactions will be restrained.

Moreover, market dynamics are affected by timing: the current tariff agreement expires in November

The timing of the meeting also plays a role in market dynamics: the current tariff agreement expires in November. This adds urgency, while simultaneously leaving room for tactical moves, such as temporary delays.

Markets have already partially priced in the possibility of "pauses" and "ceasefires," so for a significant positive shock, it will take not just a statement, but specific mechanisms and commitments with real deadlines and volumes.

Finally, market participants are also watching the public rhetoric of both sides. If the summit is accompanied by a demonstration of compromise, where each side can save face and present it as an achievement, financial indicators will react positively.

However, if the talks devolve into mutual accusations and "polite indifference," safe-haven assets like the yen, franc, and gold will receive support, not due to confidence in a long-term resolution of the contradictions, but from a flight to safety.

Strategic mismatch: rare earth elements, semiconductors, and China's long-term strategy

One of the central areas of negotiation is technology and key resources, especially rare earth elements. For Trump, this is a separate line of pressure: lifting export restrictions on these materials could ease access to components for smartphones, semiconductors, and defense systems.

With his transactional approach, everything looks simple: you give, we give. The problem, however, is that Beijing does not view rare earth elements as just a commodity, but as a strategic advantage. For China, control over these resources is part of a long-term national strategy, and it will not back down without compensation.

Sun Chenghao, a researcher at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, puts it bluntly: "China's levers of influence are not 'simple bargaining chips,'" and this is what makes a simple barter exchange for some temporary concessions from the US impossible.

The analyst points out that changing this policy would require significant concessions from the US, likely involving the removal of American technology sanctions—a politically unacceptable step for Washington.

Amid these contradictions, Washington is also working in a different direction, considering tightening export restrictions on equipment containing American software. This means that a potential compromise on rare earth elements is not only unclear but complicated by additional technological restrictions from the US, which could hurt sales of computers, engines, and other goods.

In other words, both sides are preparing carefully calculated moves, but their logic is different: one is focused on a quick result, while the other aims for a systemic advantage.

The implications for markets and supply chains are clear: any changes in export policy in this area will impact the cost of technology production worldwide, profit expectations for relevant companies, and long-term supply chains.

In this situation, the trade meeting in South Korea is unlikely to resolve the issue; instead, it will likely serve as a point where the sides refine the boundaries of what is possible and outline red lines, while markets will respond cautiously.

Taiwan as a constant risk factor in any trade deal

Taiwan is a topic that goes beyond traditional trade logic and falls into the realm of national security and foreign policy doctrine.

China has officially asked the White House to declare that the US "opposes" Taiwan's independence, and according to Trump, the island issue will likely be discussed. This adds an element to the negotiation process that is difficult to formalize in the form of commercial commitments.

Patricia Kim from the Brookings Institution recalls that Trump "does not adhere to conventional views on Taiwan and has been notably more restrained in his support for Taiwan, especially compared to his predecessors."

This restraint may appear to Beijing as room for maneuver: if Trump is willing to show flexibility on this issue, China might perceive it as a chance to secure concessions in exchange for other actions. This is why Taiwan could potentially become that "bargaining chip" that raises concerns among American hawks and US allies in the region.

However, concessions on such issues are politically painful for the American leadership and could provoke internal conflicts in Washington, where national security concerns and strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan remain highly sensitive.

Therefore, even if the topic is discussed, it is unlikely to result in widespread concessions that could be quickly incorporated into agreements; it is much more likely that the sides will outline their positions and perhaps agree on declaratory formulations that do not touch on strategic guarantees.

Escalation before the negotiations: sanctions, tariffs, and unexpected trade issues

The past few weeks have shown that the confrontation hasn't cooled down ahead of the summit; on the contrary, it has escalated. Each side accuses the other: the US sees new Chinese export restrictions as the cause of the escalation, while Beijing claims that Washington has broken its promises by expanding sanctions and adding subsidiaries to the blacklist.

These accusations quickly escalated into retaliatory measures: China imposed sanctions on American subsidiaries of the South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean Co., and in response, Trump raised the idea of introducing additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods by November 1—a threat that sends a chill through the markets.

Unusual trade topics have also made it to the agenda: import restrictions on used vegetable oil from China are being discussed—an example of how trade policy can infiltrate unexpected segments and create risks for various industries.

All of this is not just diplomatic rhetoric: tariffs and sanctions are already impacting real economic factors. In the US, tariff hikes have led to higher consumer goods prices, while in China, restrictions have disrupted access to the largest export market.

Interestingly, Trump himself hinted that he doesn't consider the current tariff threat regime sustainable. At the same time, hardline advocates in Washington believe that the US still holds significant leverage, as Steve Yates from the Heritage Foundation points out, China needs the US market more than the US needs the Chinese market.

This claim is not just a political argument but an analytical clue for markets: the balance of interdependence is key to understanding who will ultimately give way first.

Trump's Asian tour and unfinished deals with allies

Inadvertently, the summit with Xi is being perceived as the culmination of a broader Asian tour by Trump, during which he seeks to strengthen his positions and mobilize allies ahead of the main dialogue.

The trip includes Malaysia, where a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and a dinner with ASEAN leaders are planned; Japan, where talks with the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takachi, are expected; and South Korea, where a meeting with President Lee Jae-myung, a keynote speech at the APEC leaders' luncheon, and a working dinner with other leaders are scheduled. These are not just diplomatic stops but an attempt to reinforce positions and demonstrate that the US has alliances and tools of influence.

At the same time, many important bilateral deals remain unfinished. Trade negotiations with South Korea, India, and Brazil are "hanging by a thread," the terms of a $550 billion investment fund that Japan set up to reduce tariff barriers are yet to be finalized, and the conclusion of investment framework talks is unclear. South Korea's promise to invest $350 billion in the US has not been signed off in its final form. Similarly, negotiations with Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines seem to be going forward with caution—sources indicate that no signings are expected.

Japanese analyst William Chou offers practically applied advice: if the US's goal is to strike an effective deal with Beijing, it should "strengthen its levers of influence as much as possible." This is precisely what Trump is doing on his tour: demonstrating international support and trying to gather economic and political arguments ahead of his meeting with the Chinese leader.

However, the outcome of this strategy will only be clear after the summit—whether it leads to a demonstration of strength through steps that increase the chances of a compromise, or whether it becomes clear that the issue remains unresolved.

Conclusion: a ceasefire as the best practical outcome and what it means for the markets

Thus, the meeting in South Korea seems less like a potential conclusion to global rivalry and more like a new round of negotiations, where the goal for both sides will primarily be to reduce the intensity of the confrontation.

Trump is seeking an immediate, palatable victory, while Xi Jinping is acting from a position of long-term calculation, where strategic advantages, such as dominance in rare earth elements, are not given up without significant concessions.

Taiwan remains a dangerous point, where the slightest misstep could spoil everything, and the list of mutual sanctions and threats shows that escalation is possible even without major positive news.

For the markets, the best realistic outcome is a ceasefire: a pause in tariff hikes, declaratory agreements on purchases, and commitments that don't touch on the core of the strategic disagreements.

Such an outcome would lead to moderate relief in currencies and a reduction in short-term volatility but would not remove the systemic uncertainty that requires long-term and deep agreements.

The worst scenario for investors would be renewed escalation: in that case, volatility would increase, consumer prices would continue to rise, and confidence in the stability of global supply chains would be further shaken.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on October 24, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair made another rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1594, turning in favor of the European currency. Thus, the upward movement may continue today toward the resistance zone 1.1645–1.1656, either immediately or after another rebound from 1.1594. If the pair consolidates below 1.1594, traders can expect a further decline toward the next Fibonacci retracement level at 76.4% (1.1517).

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Therefore, the trend has now shifted to bullish. Recent labor market data, changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, Trump's renewed aggression toward China, and the government shutdown all support the bulls. However, the bulls themselves continue to attack very sluggishly, as if they simply lack the will to do so for some unknown reason.

On Thursday, there was once again no significant news in either the EU or the U.S., except for a single U.S. home sales report, which drew little reaction from traders. Today promises to be far more interesting: traders will receive business activity (PMI) indices and inflation data from the U.S. Recall that the U.S. inflation report remains extremely important for shaping FOMC monetary policy, while PMI indices are, to some extent, leading indicators of the economy's condition. Thus, Friday's data releases could strongly influence traders' decisions throughout the day. At the very least, market activity is expected to increase compared to earlier in the week.

In my opinion, the bulls still have favorable prospects, as most global developments are working against the dollar. However, in recent weeks, the market has been stagnant, and traders are reluctant to open large positions that could significantly move the exchange rate.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and consolidated below 1.1680, which allows for some downward movement. However, earlier there was also a break above the descending trend channel following the formation of a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator. Thus, the upward process may resume toward the next Fibonacci level at 161.8% (1.1854). Since market movements are currently weak, analyzing the hourly chart is more relevant.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. The sentiment of the "non-commercial" category remains bullish, thanks to Donald Trump's policies — and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 252,000, while short positions total 138,000 — a nearly twofold difference.

Additionally, note the large number of green cells in the data table, indicating a strong increase in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and building up longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create numerous long-term structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite several important trade agreements being signed, many key economic indicators continue to show weakness.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone

Eurozone / Germany:

• Germany – Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC)
• Germany – Services PMI (07:30 UTC)
• Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC)
• Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC)

United States:

• Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
• Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
• Services PMI (13:45 UTC)
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

The October 24 economic calendar includes a large number of key events, each of which could influence the market. The fundamental background will have a strong impact on market sentiment throughout Friday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell positions were possible on a rebound from 1.1718 on the hourly chart and on a close below the 1.1645–1.1656 level, targeting 1.1594 — this target has already been met. New sell trades can be opened if the pair closes below 1.1594, with a target of 1.1517. Buy positions can be considered today on a rebound from 1.1594, targeting 1.1645–1.1656.

Fibonacci grids are built:

• On the hourly chart — from 1.1392 to 1.1919
• On the 4-hour chart — from 1.1214 to 1.0179

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin: another attempt to recover

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Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum were in the hands of buyers, though at this point the momentum remains too weak to confirm the continuation of a full-fledged bull market. Active Bitcoin buying is observed around the $106,000 level, but near $111,000, the bulls are struggling to withstand pressure from sellers.

According to market data, net inflows into spot BTC ETFs were nearly zero during yesterday's trading session. Meanwhile, outflows from spot ETH ETFs continued to grow. Nevertheless, Ethereum has been steadily advancing toward the $4,000 mark. Indeed, despite conflicting signals from the ETF market, ETH is showing impressive resilience and even an upward trend. Interest from institutional investors in DeFi has slowed, but hasn't vanished completely and continues to benefit Ethereum, which remains the dominant platform for most DeFi projects. Major players are increasingly viewing ETH as a core asset in their portfolios, which helps support both demand and price.

Meanwhile, VanEck stated that they continue to view Bitcoin as being in a bull market, and the current correction is temporary and necessary. This confidence is backed by an analysis of long-term trends and cyclical patterns historically observed in Bitcoin's price movements.

It's clear to many that even within a bull market, phases of consolidation and pullbacks are inevitable — they serve as a kind of reset before the next leg up. The current landscape represents exactly that: a period of recalibration that offers new investors an entry point and existing participants a chance to strengthen their positions. Bitcoin's fundamental indicators remain strong: growing crypto adoption, limited supply, and sustained institutional interest continue to support its long-term potential.

Trading recommendations

As for the technical outlook on Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $111,600 level, which would open a direct path to $113,800 — just a short jump away from $116,300. The most extended bullish target remains in the $116,700 area. A breakout beyond this level would confirm the strengthening of the bull market. In case of a decline, support is expected around $109,300. A drop below this zone could quickly push BTC back toward $106,700. The deepest bearish target would be around $103,400.

Regarding Ethereum, a clear hold above the $4,014 level opens the door to $4,113. The furthest bullish target lies near the $4,191 high — breaking through that would confirm buying interest and reinforce the bull trend. If ETH moves down, demand is expected near $3,918. A decline below this area could send ETH toward $3,818, with the farthest bearish target around $3,691.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on October 24, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the resistance level of 1.3354–1.3357 and declined toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3313. A rebound from the 1.3313 level today would favor the pound and suggest some growth toward 1.3354 and 1.3387. A consolidation of the pair's rate below 1.3313 would increase the likelihood of a continued decline toward the 0.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3247, which would likely signal the end of the bullish trend.

The wave pattern remains bullish. The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, but the most recent upward wave also broke the previous high. In recent weeks, the fundamental background has been negative for the U.S. dollar, yet bullish traders have not taken advantage of the opportunities for an advance. Now, they are beginning to spread their wings — but very slowly and cautiously.

On Wednesday morning, the U.K. released its September inflation report, which brought some life back into the market. Today, the U.S. inflation report will be published — which may cause market turbulence for the second time this week. To recap, U.K. inflation remained unchanged in September, while traders expect U.S. inflation to rise to 3.1%. If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September increases from the current 2.9%, the Federal Reserve is still expected to decide next week to cut interest rates — a decision that is effectively already made and could only be reconsidered if inflation shows a sharp jump.

However, in the longer term, a faster rise in consumer prices could influence the FOMC's plans. The longer and stronger inflation grows, the sooner the U.S. regulator will likely end its current cycle of monetary easing. Thus, higher-than-expected inflation could support the bulls today. Still, business activity indices should not be overlooked.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the pound after forming a bullish divergence on the CCI indicator, followed by growth toward the 100.0% retracement level at 1.3435. A rebound from this level worked in favor of the U.S. dollar and a new decline toward 1.3339. Currently, there are no new emerging divergences on any indicator. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the hourly chart for analysis.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment among non-commercial traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between long and short contracts now stands at approximately 85,000 vs. 86,000 — meaning the bulls are once again tilting the balance in their favor.

In my view, the pound still faces prospects for decline, but with each passing month, the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. Previously, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, uncertain about their outcomes — now they may be concerned about the consequences: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, and Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve, which could make the regulator politically dependent on the White House. Thus, the pound now looks far less risky than the U.S. dollar.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

United Kingdom

• Manufacturing PMI (08:30 UTC)
• Services PMI (08:30 UTC)

United States

• Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC)
• Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC)
• Services PMI (13:45 UTC)
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (14:00 UTC)

On October 24, the economic calendar contains six key events, each of which is significant. The fundamental background will have a strong impact on market sentiment throughout the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations

Sell positions can be considered if the pair closes below 1.3313 on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3247. Buy positions can be considered on a rebound from 1.3313, with targets at 1.3354 and 1.3387.

Fibonacci retracement grids are built:

• On the hourly chart — from 1.3526 to 1.3247
• On the 4-hour chart — from 1.3431 to 1.2104

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The European Central Bank Ends Its Rate-Cutting Program

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The euro currently finds itself in a rather difficult position, facing challenges to further growth. According to a survey of economists, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep borrowing costs for the euro area at 2% until 2027.

The forecast includes maintaining the deposit rate at the upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. However, such an outlook is far from certain: one-third of respondents predict at least one more rate cut on top of the eight already implemented, while 17% expect one or more rate hikes by the end of next year.

This divergence of opinions among experts reflects uncertainty about the eurozone's economic outlook. On the one hand, persistent inflation and risks tied to geopolitical instability may call for tighter monetary policy. On the other hand, weak economic growth and high debt levels in several EU member states could require additional stimulus measures.

In this context, the ECB faces a difficult task: maintaining a balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. The regulator is likely to act cautiously, closely monitoring macroeconomic data and responding to developments as they unfold. Any surprises in inflation, unemployment, or growth figures could significantly influence the ECB's decisions — and, consequently, the euro exchange rate.

Officials led by President Christine Lagarde are unlikely to change interest rates in the near future, having stated that they are satisfied with the pace of consumer price growth and the resilience of the European economy. Recently, ECB representatives have often described their policy as well-suited to respond flexibly to new challenges.

As mentioned earlier, risks remain, as Europe has once again found itself at the center of renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China — this time over semiconductors and rare earth metals. Meanwhile, credit rating downgrades are further complicating France's budget commitments, and doubts persist regarding the effectiveness of Germany's large-scale infrastructure and defense investment plans.

Short-term risks for economic growth and inflation are generally balanced, while uncertainty about the future remains high. Nevertheless, respondents are more concerned about upside risks than deflationary ones, as prices rose 2.2% in September — the fastest pace in five months.

At the upcoming ECB meeting, everyone expects Lagarde to share her view on the current situation. Just over 60% of surveyed economists believe that growth is being constrained equally by cyclical and structural factors, while most of the remaining respondents place greater blame on structural weaknesses within the bloc.

Political turmoil is another obstacle. President Emmanuel Macron is clinging to power after yet another collapse of the French government, while public opinion in Germany has turned against Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Current Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

At present, buyers need to break above the 1.1620 level. Only this will allow them to target a test of 1.1650. From there, the pair could rise toward 1.1700, though achieving this without support from major players would be quite difficult. The furthest target stands at 1.1725. In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1590. If no one steps in there, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1545 low or to open long positions from 1.1500.

Current Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break above the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only then can they target 1.3385, which will be quite difficult to overcome. The furthest target is the 1.3420 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3315. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3280 low, with prospects of extending toward 1.3250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump Ready for Another Deal with China

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The U.S. stock market and the U.S. dollar regained confidence after President Donald Trump announced that he was aiming for a quick victory at an important meeting next Thursday with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping — even if the outcome falls short of a comprehensive agreement.

Ahead of the meeting, the U.S. president said he wants to extend the pause on tariff increases on Chinese goods in exchange for Xi resuming purchases of American soybeans, taking measures against fentanyl, and lifting restrictions on rare earth metal exports — while maintaining certain trade barriers that he considers necessary.

"I think we'll make a deal on everything," Trump told reporters.

This statement, which appeared to be an attempt to set the tone for the upcoming negotiations, drew mixed reactions. On one hand, the proposal to resume U.S. soybean supplies looks like a concession meant to ease the negative effects of the trade war on American farmers. On the other hand, the demands to take action against fentanyl and to lift restrictions on rare earth metal exports raise issues that go beyond trade — touching on national security and public health.

The issue of rare earth metals is particularly sensitive, as they are used in the production of electronics, batteries, and other high-tech devices. China's control over this market gives it a significant advantage, and lifting the restrictions could weaken Beijing's position.

Trump also proposed a hard-to-achieve nuclear weapons agreement and expressed a desire to persuade Xi to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, Trump's pursuit of deals often prioritizes style over substance, and experts expect that any agreement reached at the upcoming summit in South Korea will likely serve to ease tensions following weeks of escalating threats, retaliatory trade measures, and harsh rhetoric — rather than result in a comprehensive accord that resolves the underlying conflicts.

It is clear that both sides are seeking stability in their relations, but the question of on what terms that stability will be achieved remains open. Trump's eagerness to secure a result he can present as a victory creates the risk that he might concede to some of China's key demands — including access to advanced semiconductors and the status of the self-governing island of Taiwan. The president, in particular, has not ruled out such compromises. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that the U.S. leader will make significant concessions on these points, given the national security concerns and domestic political challenges involved. This reduces the likelihood of a large-scale deal that would assure markets that a trade war will be avoided. It is worth noting that the current tariff agreement between the two countries expires in November.

Many experts agree that, despite the negative consequences, the trade confrontation is testing both countries' resilience to economic challenges. The tariffs have driven up prices for American consumer goods and limited China's access to its largest export market.

At the foreign exchange market, things remain calm for now — but that calm will likely last only until the release of the much-anticipated U.S. inflation data.

Current Technical Outlook for EUR/USD

At present, buyers need to break above the 1.1620 level. Only this would allow them to target a test of 1.1650. From there, the pair could rise to 1.1700, although achieving this without support from major players would be quite difficult. The furthest target stands at 1.1725. In case of a decline, I expect significant buyer activity only around 1.1590. If no one steps in there, it would be preferable to wait for a renewal of the 1.1545 low or to open long positions from 1.1500.

Current Technical Outlook for GBP/USD

Pound buyers need to break above the nearest resistance at 1.3350. Only then can they target 1.3385, which will be quite difficult to overcome. The furthest target is the 1.3420 level. In case of a decline, bears will attempt to regain control over 1.3315. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3280 low, with prospects of extending toward 1.3250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on October 24, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)

On Friday, from the 1.3321 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may continue moving downward toward the target of 1.3293 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible, targeting 1.3304 — the lower fractal (daily candle from October 22, 2025).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — down
• Fibonacci levels — down
• Volume — down
• Candlestick analysis — down
• Trend analysis — down
• Bollinger Bands — down
• Weekly chart — up

Overall conclusion: Downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:

From the 1.3321 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving downward toward 1.3278 — the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible, targeting 1.3293 — the historical support level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on October 24, 2025

.Trend Analysis (Fig. 1)On Friday, from the 1.1617 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may start moving downward toward the target of 1.1576 — the lower fractal (daily candle from October 22, 2025). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible, targeting 1.1593 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line).

Fig. 1 (Daily Chart)

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis — down
• Fibonacci levels — down
• Volume — down
• Candlestick analysis — down
• Trend analysis — down
• Bollinger Bands — down
• Weekly chart — up

Overall conclusion: Downward trend.

Alternative Scenario:

Today, from the 1.1617 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward 1.1556 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible, targeting 1.1576 — the lower fractal (daily candle from October 22, 2025).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 24/10/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD USD/JPY, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on October 24: S&P 500 and NASDAQ on track for new all-time highs

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Yesterday, US stock indices ended in positive territory. The S&P 500 rose by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.89%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.31%.

Asian indices, along with futures on European and US equities, moved higher amid plans for a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, which helped ease concerns about the ongoing trade war. US Treasury bonds showed stable performance ahead of the release of key US inflation data.

Markets were encouraged by the prospect of dialogue between the leaders of the world's two largest economies. Investors, worn down by prolonged uncertainty in trade relations, now see a glimmer of hope for resolving the conflict. The anticipated Trump–Xi meeting served as a powerful growth catalyst, especially evident in the technology sector, which is particularly sensitive to trade tensions. However, despite the positive momentum, caution remains. A true resolution to the trade conflict is a complex and lengthy process, and any disappointing developments or a shift in tone could quickly send markets back into pessimism.

Today's release of US inflation data remains a critically important event that could determine the Federal Reserve's next policy steps. Strong inflation figures may prompt the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance, which in turn could have a negative impact on economic growth and trigger another wave of volatility in the stock market. A decline in inflation, on the other hand, would support a more accommodative Fed stance.

As mentioned earlier, the MSCI Asia Index rose by about 0.4%, resuming its sharp upward movement. Among the key drivers were technology stocks: South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix Inc. jumped by 6.9%. In China, semiconductor shares also led gains, as the country renewed its focus on technological self-reliance. The technology-focused STAR 50 Index surged by more than 3%.

Oil prices fell ahead of the US inflation report. The US dollar edged higher, while gold prices declined. The yen sell-off intensified after Japan's finance minister hinted that the country may need to issue additional bonds to finance the upcoming economic stimulus package proposed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The yen weakened against the US dollar for a sixth consecutive session.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main objective for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,769. A successful breakout would support further growth and open the path toward the next level at $6,784. An equally important task for bulls will be holding the $6,801 level, which would strengthen the buyers' position. In the event of a downward move driven by weakening risk appetite, bulls must step in around $6,756. A break below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,743 and open the door to $6,727.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USDJPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Trades on Forex

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Trade Review and Trading Advice on the Japanese Yen

The price test at 152.68 occurred as the MACD indicator began to decline from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to sell the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair dropped by 17 pips.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials about the potential for further monetary easing weighed on the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, in its exchange against the Japanese yen, the dollar held its ground. This paradox is explained by the yen's traditional status as a safe-haven currency, which is currently under pressure due to domestic economic and political factors. The Bank of Japan's difficulty in continuing its tight monetary policy, compounded by a new prime minister, is preventing the yen from strengthening.

Today, Japan released inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.7% to 2.9%, placing the central bank in an even more difficult position. On the one hand, this confirms that previously adopted economic stimulus measures are affecting inflation. On the other hand, rising prices are occurring amid new political signals from the government that it intends to resume economic stimulus measures. The problem is that further monetary easing could lead to an even weaker yen, which, in turn, would raise import costs and intensify inflationary pressures. A tightening of monetary policy, however, could stifle already weak economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 153.13 (thin green line on the chart), with an upside target at 153.46 (thick green line on the chart). At 153.46, I plan to exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, anticipating a 30–35-pip reversal. Buying the pair is best done on corrections and deep pullbacks.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the 152.90 level is tested twice while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to a bullish reversal. A rise toward 153.13 and 153.46 may then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a breakout below 152.90 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.58, where I plan to exit short positions and initiate long positions, aiming for a 20–25 pip corrective move from that level. Selling is better done from higher levels.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the 153.13 level is tested twice in a row, while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a bearish reversal. A decline toward 152.90 and 152.58 may be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument

Thick green line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further growth above this level is unlikely

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument

Thick red line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD Indicator – it's crucial to use overbought and oversold zones when making trading decisions

Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions carefully. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be lost very quickly—especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, as demonstrated above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBPUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Trades on Forex

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Trade Review and Trading Advice on the British Pound

The price test at 1.3322 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, limiting the downside potential of the pair. For this reason, I refrained from selling the pound.

Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, suggesting further interest rate cuts, put pressure on the U.S. dollar, yet this failed to benefit the British pound. Despite the weaker dollar, the pound has remained under pressure amid uncertainty over the UK budget, falling inflation, and the potential for an economic slowdown. Political instability—marked by frequent government changes and internal conflict within the ruling party—continues to undermine investor confidence. Economic data likewise offers little encouragement.

Today, a broad set of statistical data is scheduled. The first key release will be retail sales figures—a vital indicator of consumer activity and, consequently, a key signal of economic health. An increase in sales typically suggests improving conditions, while a decline may signal slower growth or even a recession.

Attention will then shift to the UK's business activity indices. The Manufacturing PMI will help assess the state of the industrial sector, identify its strengths and weaknesses, and evaluate growth prospects. The Services PMI, in turn, reflects the dynamics of a sector that contributes significantly to the UK's GDP. The Composite PMI, which combines both sectors, offers a complete picture of the country's economic health.

These indicators can have a substantial impact on the pound's exchange rate. Positive results generally lead to currency strengthening, while weak data may trigger the opposite reaction.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3335 (thin green line on the chart), with an upside target of 1.3367 (thick green line on the chart). At 1.3367, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 pip move from that level. A bullish outlook for the pound is valid only if the data is very strong.

Important: Before placing a buy trade, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound following two consecutive tests of the 1.3309 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This setup would limit the downward potential and likely result in a bullish reversal. A subsequent rise toward 1.3335 and 1.3367 can then be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3309 level (red line on the chart), which could trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3274 level, where I plan to exit the short position and open a buy position in the opposite direction, targeting a rebound of 20–25 pips from that level. Selling pressure will likely return if economic data is weak.

Important: Before initiating a sell trade, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if two consecutive tests of the 1.3335 level occur while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward movement and likely lead to a downward reversal. A drop to the levels of 1.3309 and 1.3274 may then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument

Thick green line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further growth above this level is unlikely

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument

Thick red line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD Indicator – it's crucial to use overbought and oversold zones when making trading decisions

Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions carefully. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be lost very quickly—especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, as demonstrated above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EURUSD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on October 24. Analysis of Yesterday's Trades on Forex

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Trade Review and Trading Advice on the Euro

The price test at 1.1596 occurred when the MACD indicator was starting to move above the zero line, confirming a valid entry point to buy the euro. As a result, the pair rose to the target level near 1.1617.

Dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials on the future path of interest rates, along with hints of an imminent end to the Fed's quantitative tightening program, exerted downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.

Today will be devoted to analyzing macroeconomic data, specifically the Eurozone PMI figures for October: manufacturing and services activity indicators, as well as the composite index. These figures reflect the region's economic conditions and indicate the current state of the production and services sectors, as well as overall business sentiment. Higher-than-expected results may support the euro, while disappointing data could reduce demand for risk assets. In addition, the comments accompanying the data releases are important, as they often contain valuable insights into the Eurozone's economic outlook.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I will buy the euro at a price of around 1.1615 (green line on the chart), with an upward target at 1.1644. At 1.1644, I plan to exit the trade and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-pip move from the entry point. A further rise in the euro can only be expected following positive index data.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the 1.1601 level is tested twice in a row, while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the downside potential and could result in a bullish reversal. A rise toward 1.1615 and 1.1644 is anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1601 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1579. At 1.1579, I will exit the market and buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25-pip rebound). Selling pressure may return if the data is weak.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell the euro today if two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 level occur while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would cap the pair's upside potential and result in a downside reversal. A drop to the 1.1601 and 1.1579 levels may then be expected.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument

Thick green line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further growth above this level is unlikely

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument

Thick red line – anticipated level for placing Take Profit or manually locking in gains, as further decline below this level is unlikely

MACD Indicator – it's crucial to use overbought and oversold zones when making trading decisions

Important: Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions carefully. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, your entire deposit can be lost very quickly—especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large positions.

And remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, as demonstrated above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency Market Trading Recommendations for October 24

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Bitcoin has once again attempted to consolidate above the $110,000 level and, at the time of writing, is trading at $111,400. If it breaks above this range, we will likely see a swift return to $116,000. However, throughout the week, bitcoin has been quickly sold off on every rally. We'll soon find out if that pattern continues this time.

Meanwhile, Bitwise published a report suggesting that if just 4–5% of the capital currently invested in gold were reallocated to BTC, the price could at least double from its current level of $110,000. Many optimists point to growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, as a new asset class. They argue that bitcoin, with its limited supply and decentralized nature, presents an attractive alternative to traditional investments, particularly amid rising inflation and political uncertainty. In their view, the shift of capital from gold to bitcoin is a matter of time.

Skeptics, on the other hand, warn against excessive optimism, pointing to bitcoin's high volatility and regulatory risks. They argue that gold, as a time-tested safe-haven asset, will retain investor appeal—especially in periods of economic instability, which we are currently witnessing. Additionally, shifting such large volumes of capital from gold into bitcoin would be challenging given the scale of the gold market and the conservative nature of many investors.

As for the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on major pullbacks in bitcoin and ether, expecting the medium-term bull market to continue.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: Buy bitcoin today at the entry point around $111,800, with a target of $113,100. Exit long positions at $113,100 and sell immediately on the rebound.

Before buying a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario 2: Buy bitcoin from the lower boundary at $110,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown, with expected movement back to $111,800 and $113,100.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: Sell bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $110,800 with a target of $109,600. Exit short positions at $109,600 and buy immediately on the rebound.

Before selling a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: Sell bitcoin from the upper boundary at $111,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, with expected movement back to $110,800 and $109,600.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: Buy ether today at the entry point around $3998, with a target of $4079. Exit long positions at $4079 and sell immediately on the rebound.

Before buying a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario 2: Buy ether from the lower boundary at $3938 if there is no market reaction to a breakdown, with expected movement back to $3998 and $4079.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: Sell ether today upon reaching the entry point around $3938 with a target of $3847. Exit short positions at $3847 and buy immediately on the rebound.

Before selling a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario 2: Sell ether from the upper boundary at $3998 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, with expected movement back to $3938 and $3847.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on October 24

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The U.S. Dollar Rose Against the Pound and Yen, but Lost Ground Against the Euro

Dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials about further interest rate cuts put pressure on the dollar, though not across all currencies. Yesterday, discussions suggested that the Fed may conclude its balance sheet reduction program—also known as quantitative tightening—as early as next Wednesday, further weakening the U.S. dollar.

Today is packed with statistical data, and in the first half of the day, attention will be on the Eurozone's manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs for October.

These indicators serve as a barometer of the region's economic health, providing insights into the current state of the manufacturing and services sectors and overall business sentiment. Their influence on the currency markets can be significant, especially if actual values diverge from forecasts. If the data exceed expectations, the euro could strengthen; otherwise, pressure on the euro may persist.

The composite PMI will attract the most attention as an integrated indicator. It reflects the balance between the manufacturing and services sectors. If it comes in higher than expected, it may spark optimism and lead to growth in risk assets. If not, traders may respond negatively.

Regarding the British pound, the same data is scheduled for release today. However, before that, the retail sales volume report will be published—an indicator that reflects consumer activity and is therefore an important signal of economic health. A rise in retail sales usually indicates an improved economic climate, whereas a decline may suggest a slowdown or even a downturn.

If the data matches economists' expectations, the best approach is to use the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below expectations, the Momentum strategy is recommended.

Strategy: Momentum (Breakout Trading)

EUR/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.1620. Target levels: 1.1645 and 1.1675

Sell on a breakout below 1.1600. Target levels: 1.1575 and 1.1545

GBP/USD

Buy on a breakout above 1.3335. Target levels: 1.3350 and 1.3375

Sell on a breakout below 1.3310. Target levels: 1.3280 and 1.3260

USD/JPY

Buy on a breakout above 153.10. Target levels: 153.45 and 153.84

Sell on a breakout below 152.85. Target levels: 152.60 and 152.10

Strategy: Mean Reversion (Rebound from Failed Breakout)

EUR/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.1620 and return below this level

Look to buy after a failed move below 1.1598 and return above this level

GBP/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3334 and return below this level

Look to buy after a failed move below 1.3305 and return above this level

AUD/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6522 and return below this level

Look to buy after a failed move below 0.6491 and return above this level

USD/CAD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4032 and return below this level

Look to buy after a failed move below 1.3980 and return above this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for October 24-27, 2025: buy above 1.1600 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1607, retreating after a strong bullish momentum and is now below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA, which suggests that we could expect it to continue falling in the short term until it reaches the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1520 and could even reach the 6/8 Murray level around 1.1474.

Remembering that the euro left a gap around 1.1735, if there is a technical rebound and consolidation above 1.1660 in the coming days, we could expect EUR/USD to reach this area. The price could even reach the +1/8 Murray level around 1.1840.

The Eagle indicator is showing negative signals, so the euro is expected to continue its bearish cycle in the coming days until it reaches the psychological level of 1.1500. Even if it breaks this level, it could reach 1.1250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for October 24-27, 2025: buy above $109,300 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around 110,489, above the 3/8 Murray level, and above the 21SMA with a positive bias.

It is likely to continue rising in the coming hours, reaching the strong resistance of the 4/8 Murray level around 112,500, and could even encounter a strong rejection around the top of the downtrend channel located at 113,220, which also coincides with the 200 EMA.

If Bitcoin makes a technical rebound around 109,375, it will be seen as a signal to buy in the coming hours, with targets at 112,500.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin falls and consolidates below the 21SMA at $109,000, we could expect the bearish cycle to resume, potentially reaching the 2/8 Murray at 106,250 and even the 1/8 Murray around 103,125.

In the short term, the eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, so any pullback in Bitcoin will be seen as a signal to buy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Market Walks a Razor's Edge

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Is there reason to panic when corporations are as strong as a bull, the U.S. economy is expanding, and the Federal Reserve plans to continue cutting rates? Positive earnings reports from Intel and other companies acted as a catalyst for a swift rebound in the S&P 500 from its local bottom. Investors did what they had been wanting to do for some time—buy the dip. Are record highs just around the corner?

According to LSEG data, out of 130 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results, 86% have exceeded profit forecasts. This figure not only reflects their robust health but also a firmly grounded U.S. economy. Moreover, signs of improvement are giving strength to stock buyers.

U.S. Stock Index Dynamics

New home sales rose at the fastest pace in seven months. Manufacturing activity in the central U.S. has expanded for four consecutive months after three years of contraction. Consumer spending via credit cards at the six largest banks increased by 7.5% in July–September, significantly outpacing inflation.

Goldman Sachs notes that financial conditions are currently the most favorable for the economy since spring 2022, and a leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed projects U.S. GDP growth accelerating to 3.9% in the third quarter.

If we add to this the Fed's clear intention to lower rates, it becomes easier to believe in a soon-to-be-restored uptrend for the S&P 500. Indeed, futures markets are pricing in a 99% likelihood of monetary easing in October and 92% in December.

Investors believe that even an acceleration in U.S. consumer prices in September will not deter the Fed from its path of monetary policy easing. For example, JP Morgan sees a 65% chance that the S&P 500 will rise following the release of inflation data.

S&P 500 Reaction Forecast to Inflation Data

It would be wrong to say that all storm clouds over the S&P 500 have cleared. The U.S. and China continue to escalate tensions during trade negotiations. Washington has initiated an investigation into China's compliance with its agricultural purchase commitments from the first trade war. Back then, Beijing refused to fulfill them, citing the pandemic's negative impact.

Donald Trump demands that China loosen export controls on rare earth minerals, increase imports of U.S. soybeans, and block fentanyl shipments into the U.S. In exchange, he promises to extend relatively low tariffs. However, China is holding on to its trump cards. Letting go of them would mean defeat.

The positions of both sides are far apart, suggesting difficult negotiations ahead. Markets seem to be underestimating the risks of a trade war, and a sharp rise in inflation could trigger another wave of sell-offs in the broad stock index.

Technically, on the daily S&P 500 chart, a battle is unfolding for the fair value at 6745. A victory for the bulls would open the door to previous long-term targets at 6800 and 6920. Conversely, a defeat would justify selling toward 6650 and 6585.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.