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Trading Signals for BITCOIN for November 28-30, 2025: sell below $93,000 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

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Bitcoin is trading around $91,537, consolidating in this area and showing signs of exhaustion, which means that a technical correction is likely to occur in the coming days.

Bitcoin has encountered strong resistance around $92,500. If it continues its rise, it is likely to reach Murray's 3/8. This area represents strong resistance around $93,750.

If Bitcoin undergoes a technical correction, it is likely to hit $89,500 around the 21 SMA or could even reach the bottom of the uptrend channel around $88,400.

The Eagle indicator is showing overbought signals, but Bitcoin could continue its climb. If a pullback to $93,000 and $93,750 occurs, it will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

The key to a good technical correction is to wait for the price to reach the top of the uptrend channel around $93,700 or the 3/8 Murray. We must be careful if our strategy is long, as a technical correction is expected.

A good area is to plan long positions. For this, we should wait for the price to reach $89,000, as this level could provide new momentum, which in turn coincides with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for November 28-30, 2025: buy above 1.1555 (rebound - 7/8 Murray)

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EUR/USD is trading around 1.1570, below the 200 EMA, and below the 21 SMA within the uptrend channel formed since November 20.

During the American session, the euro reached the bottom of the uptrend channel, which gave it a good technical rebound. Now it is likely to resume its upward cycle and could reach 1.1587 and even the 7/8 Murray around 1.1596.

The euro continues to trade within its uptrend channel, so the outlook remains positive. Therefore, we will look for opportunities to buy at current price levels around 1.1570 or in case of a technical correction towards the bottom of the trend channel around 1.1555.

In the event of a sharp break in the uptrend channel, we could expect the price to fall below 1.1550. In this case, EUR/USD could reach the 6/8 Murray around 1.1474.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal. So, the odds are that the euro will continue to rise in the coming days.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The GBP/JPY pair has attracted some intraday sellers after rising during the Asian session to resistance at 207.20 — a new high since July 2024. However, the decline does not look bearish: current prices remain above support at 206.40 and have been showing an upward trend for the third week in a row.

This morning, Tokyo inflation data was released, showing that inflation remains high. This confirms that the Bank of Japan may raise rates in December. Moreover, investors should remain alert amid speculation that Japanese authorities are ready to intervene to stop the yen's decline. All of this supports the Japanese currency and restrains the growth of the GBP/JPY pair.

On the other hand, the pound is currently struggling to attract buyers. Expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England next month limit the pair's growth. This sharply contrasts with the Bank of Japan's willingness to raise rates. However, the situation surrounding the U.K. budget has become clearer: the risk has been removed, and the economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward, which may prevent a sharp fall in the British pound.

The U.K. Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts economic growth of 1.5% this year, higher than the previous estimate of 1%. U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves stated that the government has exceeded this year's growth forecast and added that it will surpass it again.

Concerns about Japan's debt situation and global market risks may also affect the Japanese yen by limiting its growth. All of this calls for caution when trying to determine whether the GBP/JPY pair has reached its peak.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are positive but close to the overbought zone, which confirms a corrective movement.

The nearest support is at 206.40, and resistance is at the monthly high of 207.20. If prices fail to hold this support, the decline may accelerate toward the round level of 206.00, and then toward 205.30, gradually shifting momentum in favor of the bears.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 28th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

Because of low volatility, the price did not reach the levels I indicated during the first half of the day.

In the absence of further catalysts that determine price direction, USD/JPY may show consolidation, relying on current support and resistance levels. Traders using intraday strategies can take advantage of this situation to profit from small range-bound fluctuations. However, despite the expected stability in the second half of the day, it is important to remember that unexpected news or geopolitical events can disrupt the balance. Therefore, monitoring the rhetoric and actions of central banks becomes an important factor in forecasting the pair's future movement. Any hints of changes in monetary policy can trigger sharp price swings.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point around 156.45 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for growth to 156.80 (the thicker green line on the chart). Near 156.80, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point movement back from the level). A rise in the pair is possible as a continuation of the bullish market. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price 156.25 is tested twice in a row at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth to the opposing levels of 156.45 and 156.80 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level 156.25 (red line on the chart) is renewed, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.98, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point movement back from the level). Continued pressure on the pair today is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price 156.45 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 156.25 and 155.98 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders need to make market-entry decisions very cautiously. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 28th (U.S. Session)

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The price test of 1.3215 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test of 1.3215 coincided with a moment when the MACD was oversold, which allowed scenario #2 for buying the pound to play out. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in closing the position with a loss.

The pound continued to decline amid the absence of U.K. statistics. After the morning pressure, the lack of internal catalysts left the British currency vulnerable to the overall negative market sentiment. Traders, lacking domestic guidance, focus on global uncertainty factors, which puts additional pressure on the pound. Considering that there are no major U.S. data releases in the second half of the day either, the GBP/USD pair could fall even further. The most likely scenario appears to be a continued decline in GBP/USD in search of new support levels. However, it is also important to consider technical factors that may limit the pair's downward potential.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the entry point of 1.3218 (green line on the chart) is reached, aiming for growth to 1.3249 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 1.3249, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point movement back from the level). A strong rise in the pound today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price 1.3190 is tested twice in a row at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth to the opposing levels of 1.3218 and 1.3249 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after the level 1.3190 (red line on the chart) is renewed, which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3165, where I will exit the short position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point movement in the opposite direction). Continued pressure on the pound today is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning its downward movement from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price 1.3218 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.3190 and 1.3165 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make market-entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one I have presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 28th (U.S. Session)

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Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The price test of 1.1575 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1575 coincided with a moment when the MACD was oversold, which allowed scenario #2 for buying euros to play out. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in closing the position with a loss.

The unexpected decline in Germany's retail sales by 0.3%, compared to the expected increase of 0.2%, caused a noticeable drop in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the first half of the day. This negative data further heightened investor concerns about slowing economic growth in the eurozone. Combined with the pause in the European Central Bank's interest rate-cutting cycle, this factor had a significant impact on the single European currency.

The absence of major economic news from the United States in the second half of the day, as well as silence from Federal Reserve representatives, gives markets a chance to offset the morning decline observed during the European trading session. Traders may take advantage of the lull in the news flow to buy back the recent drop in the euro. However, fundamental factors — such as the overall condition of the eurozone economy and expectations regarding future ECB policy — will continue to influence the dynamics of the currency pair.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy euros when the price reaches the level of 1.1570 (green line on the chart), aiming for growth to 1.1588. At 1.1588, I plan to exit the market, and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry level. Counting on a strong rise in the euro today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price 1.1558 is tested twice in a row at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth to the opposing levels of 1.1570 and 1.1588 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches 1.1558 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1541, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point movement back from the level). Continued pressure on the pair today is unlikely. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price 1.1570 is tested twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.1558 and 1.1541 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated price for setting Take Profit or manually taking profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make market-entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crypto market: end of trading week and month

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The cryptocurrency market is currently in a phase of recovery, but it maintains a high degree of volatility and susceptibility to external factors. Prospects will depend on the decisions made by the Federal Reserve and the overall macroeconomic environment. The recovery process is likely to take some time as fundamental economic factors continue to impact the markets.

The weakening dollar and the prospect of interest rate cuts from the Fed are contributing to the strengthening of dollar-alternative assets. Earlier expectations suggested a pause in the easing monetary policy, but recent comments from Fed officials Christopher Waller, John Williams, and Mary Daly have intensified concerns about cooling labor market conditions and inflation.

Reports that Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the position of Fed Chair and director of the National Economic Council, supports a policy of low rates have bolstered expectations for further rate cuts. The market anticipates three additional rate reductions by the end of 2026, further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness.

Published data revealed that the September producer price index decreased from 2.9% to 2.6%, while retail sales fell from 0.6% to 0.2%, signaling a decrease in inflationary pressure and increasing the need for active intervention from the central bank.

Although opinions among Fed members vary—with some advocating for employment support while others seek to limit price growth—creating uncertainty among market participants and keeping the fear and greed index in the extreme zone, the likelihood of a shift in monetary policy at the December Fed meeting has significantly increased: the CME FedWatch Tool recorded an increase in the chance of rate cuts from 30% to 84.7%.

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated moderately positive dynamics, recovering some of its previously lost positions. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) has stabilized near the level of 91,000.00, having gained +3.2%, while Ethereum (ETH) rose to 3,027.00, showing an increase of +5.6%. Other key cryptocurrencies also recorded strong gains: the XRP token strengthened by +6.3%, trading near 2.2000, and Solana (SOL) added +5.2% compared to last week's closing price, trading around the 140.00 mark against the dollar. The total market capitalization reached $3.08 trillion, up 0.08% from yesterday, according to TradingView. Bitcoin's dominance stood at around 60%.

At the same time, despite the positive signals, the market continues to feel the negative impact of adverse news, including another major hack of the South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Upbit, which occurred in November 2025. Hackers stole approximately $37 million, temporarily freezing operations on the exchange and emphasizing the risks of investing in digital assets.

Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious. The so-called "Fear and Greed" index continues to sit in the "extreme fear" zone at a level of 19 out of 100, signaling high risks of further volatility and the possibility of a new wave of cryptocurrency sell-offs.

Regarding Bitcoin, various sources indicate that large institutional investors have begun actively accumulating coins, especially holders of wallets containing between 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, which increases the likelihood of a trend reversal toward a bull market (for more on BTC dynamics, see our review "BTC/USD: Dynamics Scenarios for 11.28.2025").

Conclusion

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is in a phase of recovery but continues to exhibit a high degree of volatility and exposure to external factors. Future prospects will hinge on the Fed's decisions and the overall macroeconomic environment. The recovery process is likely to take some time as fundamental economic factors continue to influence the markets. Investors should exercise caution when dealing with high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

November recap: chaos in markets, weak dollar, rising gold, and hopes for rate cuts

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The final trading session of November was far from calm: a failure at CME Group disrupted trading across key futures—from commodities to currencies and bonds. This occurred just as American participants were set to return to the market after Thanksgiving Day. Liquidity hit minimal levels, and trading systems were suddenly paralyzed. Against the backdrop of an already unstable month, this episode became a symbol of November 2025: anxious and unpredictable.

At first glance, the markets appeared surprisingly resilient. The European STOXX 600 ended the day almost unchanged and even gained 0.5% for the month, albeit with the weakest increase in six months.

The S&P 500 was down moderately, decreasing by 0.4% in November, but compared to the two-month low the index touched a week ago, this looks almost like a victory. At one point, the decline had reached 5% since the beginning of the month—making today's partial recovery all the more significant.

However, beneath this surface stability lies a much more complex picture, characterized by significant fluctuations in the tech sector, steep declines in cryptocurrencies, interest rate expectations, currency movements, and commodity spikes.

Usually, markets prepare for heightened volatility in September and October, but this time, the main shocks occurred in November. Tech giants broke records only to fall sharply. The U.S. government was partially shut down for a record 43 days, which paralyzed the publication of crucial economic data and plunged the market into a "blind flight" situation.

The absence of statistics compelled the Federal Reserve to act particularly cautiously. Investors were unclear about the state of consumer demand, inflation dynamics, or the resilience of the labor market—all at a time when the global economy is undergoing a transition after a long cycle of tight rates.

Still, it was the Fed that became the key factor aiding market stabilization. Comments from Christopher Waller and John Williams came as an unexpected gift to investors: both supported a rate cut next month. This dramatically shifted the risk appetite—from cautious avoidance of stocks to a gradual return to the market.

The probability of a rate cut soared from 30% to over 80% in just a week. Such a sharp shift in expectations immediately fueled stock indices, aiding recovery in the final days of the month.

Currency markets

The currency market was also turbulent. The US dollar, despite attempts to strengthen in the last days, ended the week nearly unchanged and even risks showing its largest weekly decline since July.

Amid this, the Japanese yen particularly stood out, regaining attention. After falling to a 10-month low, it managed to bounce back—as the market increasingly believes the Bank of Japan is preparing to raise rates in December. The growth of core inflation in Tokyo to 2.8% has only reinforced these expectations.

For the first time in years, the Bank of Japan has the opportunity to exit its ultra-loose policy, which is already priced into the market by about a third. If such a decision follows, currency pairs with the yen could experience significant movements, one of the key events in December.

Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are rising steadily. Investors believe the rate hike cycles in these countries are nearing their end, making the yields on Oceania bonds attractive once again. The euro is behaving more calmly, adding 0.3% for the month—a nearly symbolic increase reflecting the lack of aggressive actions from the ECB.

Commodities

The commodities market is also showing mixed signals. Brent crude oil rose to $63.55; however, the asset is ending the month down more than 2%, extending a series of declines for the fourth consecutive month. Prices are being pressured by expectations of increased global supply and the US's efforts to promote a peace initiative concerning Ukraine.

The potential normalization of Russian energy trading could sharply increase available oil volumes in the market—and the market is preemptively pricing this in.

Conversely, gold appears strong. Its price has risen to $4,166 per ounce, reflecting an increase of nearly 5% for the month.

The metal benefits from a combination of:

1. A weak dollar,
2. Expectations of rate cuts in the US,
3. Nervousness due to data disruptions and political risks.

Although gold did not reach its record high of $4,381, its resilient performance amid such turbulence indicates that demand for safe-haven assets remains strong and is even growing.

US, European, and Asian Markets

The final week of November provided relief for the Asian markets. After several weeks of turbulence, stocks and bonds managed to recoup some losses.

The reason is simple: weak economic data from the US increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. For many Asian economies, this means:

1. Improved financing conditions,
2. Inflows of capital,
3. Reduced pressure on local currencies,
4. Stabilization of debt costs.

In Europe, however, the situation is more complex. The STOXX 600, while remaining near record levels, has clearly lost its momentum. Investors are beginning to doubt whether European companies can continue growing at previous rates amid weak consumption and a lack of stimulus from the ECB.

In the US, the picture is also mixed: the technology sector, which has propelled the market upward all year, has become overloaded with expectations and has seen significant corrections. However, thanks to the Fed's pivot, indices have managed to recover some of the losses.

Markets enter December with hopes, but also caution

This November has shown that markets do not always follow their seasonal patterns. Turbulence arrived when it was least expected, and recovery was made possible through just a few comments from Fed representatives.

The glitch at CME Group became a symbolic end to the month: the financial system today is so fragile that technical failures can impact liquidity just as much as macroeconomic news.

As December begins, important expectations loom:

• A rate cut in the US is almost certain,
• The Bank of Japan may raise rates for the first time in a long while,
• The dollar may continue to weaken,
• Gold will maintain support,
• Oil will remain under pressure due to rising supply.

Markets are entering a new month with cautious optimism—and an understanding that the traditionally calm December may also prove to be an exception this year.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Future of US stock market lies with blockchain

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin has returned to the $92,000 area and has even surpassed this level, making it the perfect time to continue the conversation about Solana and its dominance in the market for tokenized stocks.

This morning, I discussed how Solana currently dominates the market for the offering and trading of tokenized stocks, holding more than a 95% market share for the past four months. In October of this year, that share even reached as high as 99%.

Leading crypto enthusiasts have picked up on this subject. In an interview, American entrepreneur and co-founder and former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, stated that by the end of 2026, the pricing of major US stocks will shift from Wall Street to the on-chain space. In his view, the market will look to perpetual contract charts rather than NASDAQ.

Arthur Hayes argues that blockchain offers a far more efficient and transparent infrastructure for trading tokens representing stocks. The absence of intermediaries, instantaneous trade execution, and round-the-clock accessibility are key factors that are drawing investors toward on-chain trading. Additionally, the decentralized nature of blockchain reduces the risks of market manipulation and enhances overall trust in the system.

However, not everyone shares Hayes' optimism. Critics point to the regulatory hurdles that need to be overcome for the mass adoption of tokenized stocks. Scalability and security issues also need to be considered. Solana, despite its advantages, is not without vulnerabilities, and successful hacking attacks could undermine trust in the platform. Furthermore, significant technological advancements will be required to handle transaction volumes comparable to those of NASDAQ.

Nevertheless, the trend toward asset tokenization is evident and gaining momentum.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical picture of Bitcoin, buyers are now targeting a return to the $92,000 level, which opens a direct path to $92,500, and from there it is just a short distance to $99,400. The furthest target will be around $101,400; overcoming this level would signify attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a Bitcoin decline, I expect buyers at the level of $89,200. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly drop BTC to around $86,500. The furthest target will be the area of $83,900.

As for the technical picture of Ethereum, establishing a clear position above $3,068 opens a direct path to $3,193. The furthest target will be the peak around $3,317; breaching this level would indicate a strengthening of bullish market sentiment and renewed interest from buyers. In case of a decline in Ethereum, I expect buyers at the level of $2,947. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly drop ETH to around $2,845. The furthest target will be the area of $2,732.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 28/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 28, 2025

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On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rose toward the resistance level of 1.1594–1.1607 but failed to perform either a rebound or consolidation above it. Today, a rebound of quotes from this level will work in favor of the U.S. currency and a slight decline toward the 76.4% corrective level at 1.1517. Consolidation of the pair above the level will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next resistance level at 1.1645–1.1656.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not break the peak of the previous wave, and the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, the trend at this time remains "bearish." The bulls have gone on the offensive, but their momentum is still not enough to form a trend. For the bearish trend to be considered completed, the pair must rise above 1.1656.

On Thursday, there was no news background, and traders decided it was better to wait for the next reports and important events before taking active steps. Trader activity has recently remained low, but I believe that in December we will get answers to many questions — in particular, the current state of the U.S. labor market, whether it requires additional support from the Federal Reserve, how quickly inflation is growing, and what decision the FOMC will make at its final meeting of the year. Answers to these questions will help traders shape a long-term strategy, but I believe this strategy has been bullish and will remain bullish for many reasons related to Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's policy. Thus, today trading should be guided by chart-based signals, but important data will start coming in next week. Bears still dominate the market, but their dominance is mostly a facade.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after forming two bullish divergences on the CCI indicator. The pair consolidated above the 38.2% correction level at 1.1538, which allows traders to expect continued growth toward the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. No new emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. A rebound from the 1.1649–1.1680 level will work in favor of the dollar and some decline.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 3,377 long positions and 2,381 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the government shutdown, but for now the data being released is outdated — from October. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 255,000, while the number of short positions is 137,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause many problems of a long-term and structural nature for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators show decline, and the dollar is losing its status as a "world reserve currency."

News calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:

• European Union – Germany Retail Sales change (07:00 UTC).
• European Union – Germany Unemployment Rate (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Germany Unemployment Change (08:55 UTC).
• European Union – Germany Consumer Price Index (13:00 UTC).

On November 28, the economic calendar contains four noteworthy entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will be weak, as all reports will be released only in Germany.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair today will be possible upon a rebound from the 1.1594–1.1607 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1517. Buying could be opened upon a rebound from the 1.1517 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1594. The target has been reached. New buys are possible upon a close above the 1.1594–1.1607 level with a target at 1.1645–1.1656.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 28, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair bounced yesterday from the 1.3214 level but failed to continue rising. For most of the day, traders observed horizontal movement. Today, a new rebound from the 1.3214 and 1.3186 levels will work in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 1.3240 and 1.3294 levels. A fixation of the pair's rate below 1.3214 will allow expectations for continued decline toward 1.3186 and 1.3139.

The wave situation has turned "bullish." The last downward wave did not break the previous low, and the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, the trend is officially "bullish" now. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully priced it in, and the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired.

There was no news background on Thursday, and traders fully priced in the U.K. budget for next year, published on Wednesday. I remind you that the pound received market support, but yesterday trader activity sharply decreased, especially in the second half of the day. In the U.S., Thursday was Thanksgiving Day, so banking and stock exchanges were closed. Today, the news background is also absent, so I do not expect strong market fluctuations. Next week is difficult to call highly important, as the most important reports that are usually published in the first week of each month have been moved to a later date this time. I'm referring to Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. However, there will still be important data — the ISM business activity indices and the ADP report. There will not be much data, and the most important ones will be released later. The next FOMC meeting will take place on December 10, and it is extremely important that all labor market, unemployment, and inflation statistics are released before this date.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel and above the 1.3118–1.3140 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3339 level, and the bulls may work on forming a trend. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. A rebound from the 1.3339 level will work in favor of the dollar and a slight decline of the pair.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 7. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,871, while short positions increased by 9,453. The gap between long and short positions is currently as follows: 94 thousand vs. 98 thousand. Virtually complete parity.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Therefore, if the Bank of England may cut the rate one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may be no better for it.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

On November 28, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will have no influence on market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if quotes consolidate below 1.3214 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3186 and 1.3139. Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.3240 on the hourly chart, or on a rebound from 1.3214 and 1.3186, with targets at 1.3240 and 1.3294.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 28, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may start moving downward from the level of 1.3237 (yesterday's daily candle close) with a target of 1.3178 — the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3197 — the 5 EMA (thin red line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• volumes – down
• candlestick analysis – down
• trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• weekly chart – up

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3237 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward with a target of 1.3197 — the 5 EMA (thin red line).

When testing this line, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3209 — the lower fractal (daily candle of November 27, 2025).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 28, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may start moving downward from the level of 1.1595 (yesterday's daily candle close) with the target at 1.1556 — a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible with a target of 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• volumes – down
• candlestick analysis – down
• trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1595 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward with a target of 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.1592 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

ECB maintains course amid mixed economic signals

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While the euro is trying to gather strength for a new upward move against the US dollar, Chief Economist Philip Lane believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be able to keep inflation at the target level due to falling prices for non-energy goods.

The Irish official remarked at an event in Paris that in order to maintain inflation at 2%, further slowing of non-energy inflation is necessary. He expressed confidence that this would happen, as all observed indicators suggest a continued slowdown in wage growth.

Many economists expect that the ECB will keep borrowing rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. Most officials are assured that inflation will not deviate sharply from the target level in the near future.

Earlier that same day, Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the risk of not achieving the target level is limited.

On the one hand, overall inflation is indeed showing signs of slowing down, aided by decreasing energy prices. On the other hand, core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food prices, remains resilient. This indicates that inflationary pressure is spreading across a broader range of goods and services, complicating the ECB's task of returning to the target level.

Many economists express concerns that reliance on a slowdown in wage growth may not be sufficient to keep inflation in check. Additionally, geopolitical instability and new supply chain disruptions could provoke another surge in energy prices at any moment, undermining the ECB's efforts.

On the plus side, the eurozone economy is growing, and the unemployment rate remains at a record low, which is quite positive. However, wage growth is also slowing, allowing the ECB to maintain a wait-and-see stance regarding interest rates. Lane stated that the overall tendency to keep inflation near the target level continues to be the result of various interacting factors.

While price increases in the services sector exceed 3%, this is partly explained by wage growth still lagging behind the post-pandemic surge in inflation. ECB analysts anticipate a significant slowdown in growth rates going forward. For inflation to be at 2%, we need wages in Europe to grow by around 2.5% or 3%.

The euro reacted moderately to this ECB representative's statement.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1590 level. Only by doing so can they aim for a test at 1.1615. From there, the price could potentially rise to 1.1635, but doing this without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the high around 1.1655. If the pair declines, significant activity from buyers is anticipated around the 1.1570 level. If no buyers are present there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1550 or to open long positions from 1.1530.

As for the current technical outlook for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3250. This will allow them to target 1.3280, above which further movement will be quite challenging. The furthest target is around 1.3310. If the pair declines, bears will likely attempt to take control at the 1.3210 level. If successful, a break below this range would deliver a significant blow to bull positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a minimum of 1.3185, with the potential to reach 1.3155.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Thanksgiving sparks investor reflection on S&P 500's future

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Holy ground cannot remain empty. With the US markets closed for Thanksgiving, investors are shifting their focus to other regions, Asia and Europe. At the same time, traders have an opportunity to ponder the future of the S&P 500. According to the consensus forecast by Reuters experts, the broad stock index is expected to rise by 12% in 2026 due to the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the resilience of the US economy, and the ongoing strength of the technology sector.

Interestingly, in light of the closed US markets, investors prefer to buy shares of technology companies in other regions. Asian stock indices outperformed their American counterparts in 2025 due to more accommodative monetary policies. For instance, the Bank of Japan is keeping the overnight rate low and is in no hurry to raise it, despite inflation exceeding the 2% target for 43 consecutive months. The Bank of Korea has only recently begun signaling the end of its monetary expansion cycle.

Dynamics of US and Asian Stock Indices

In 2026, everything risks being turned upside down. The Fed has taken its time, but it is now prepared to lower the federal funds rate at an accelerated pace amid a cooling labor market. According to FOMC member Stephen Miran, the sharp slowdown in employment is linked to overly tight monetary policy. He voted for a 50 basis point cut in borrowing costs at the previous two FOMC meetings. Investors believe that another person from the White House, Kevin Hassett, will be a pronounced "dove." The increased chances of his appointment by Donald Trump as the chair of the Fed have weakened the US dollar.

If the US dollar index continues to decline in line with the federal funds rate, it will provide a stronger tailwind for the S&P 500. The weakness of the greenback increases foreign income for companies in the broad stock index. At the same time, the decline in Treasury yields following the Fed's rate cuts reduces their costs. Positive corporate earnings have contributed to the stock market's recovery following the April rout. There are grounds to believe that this advantage will continue to work in favor of bulls.

The Fed's Beige Book indicated that the US economy is experiencing K-shaped expansion. The gap between the wealthiest and poorest segments of the population is widening. The rich are getting richer thanks to investments in growing stock indices, while the poor are barely making ends meet. Nonetheless, massive investments in artificial intelligence technologies are boosting investments, a key component of GDP. Without such investments, the economy would look considerably worse than it does now.

Technically, on the daily chart of the S&P 500, bears have failed to reverse the trend using the Expanding Wedge pattern. However, this pattern operates in both directions. A breakout above the resistance level of 6,845 will allow for increased long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency market is on pause

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After Bitcoin returned to the $92,000 level yesterday, the price failed to make an active breakout of this range. However, it is fair to note that there were also no significant selling activities from major players. This keeps the chances for further market growth alive, but likely only after the weekend. Ethereum also remains stagnant at the $3,000 mark, maintaining its potential for further correction.

While the cryptocurrency market is currently in a phase of rest, an interesting report from Syndica caught my attention. According to the data, the Solana blockchain currently dominates the market for tokenized stocks, holding over 95% market share for the past four months. In October of this year, its share even reached as high as 99%.

The explosive growth of Solana's popularity in the tokenized stock sector can be attributed to several factors. First, Solana is known for its high transaction speed and low fees, making it attractive to traders looking to quickly and efficiently trade assets. Second, the Solana ecosystem is actively developing, offering a wide range of DeFi applications and platforms that simplify the tokenization and trading of stocks.

Despite Solana's dominance, other blockchains like Ethereum and Polygon are also showing interest in the tokenized stock market. However, their shares remain insignificant compared to Solana. This disparity may be due to higher fees and slower transaction speeds on those blockchains.

Tokenized stocks are digital equivalents of traditional company shares traded on the blockchain. They allow investors access to stocks that were previously unavailable due to geographical or regulatory restrictions. Additionally, tokenization can simplify the trading process and reduce costs associated with traditional brokerage services.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,000 level, which opens a direct path to $92,500, and from there, it is only a short distance to $99,400. The furthest objective is around $101,400; surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a decline, buyers are expected at the $89,200 level. A return below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $86,500, with the most distant target at $83,900.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,068 level opens the way to $3,193. The furthest target is around $3,317; breaking above this level would signify strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at the $2,947 level. A drop below this area could swiftly bring ETH down to around $2,845, with the most distant support at $2,732.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 28: S&P 500 and NASDAQ on pause for Thanksgiving

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Yesterday, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. However, futures for American stock indices continued to trade, losing momentum despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which allowed the global stock market to achieve its best performance since June of this year.

Futures and options trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was suspended due to technical issues. The disruption specifically affected the trading of futures on US Treasury bonds and contracts on the S&P 500 index. Trading on the EBS currency platform was also interrupted due to the CME's outage.

The MSCI All Country World Index showed little change. Nevertheless, the index maintained a 3% gain for the week. Asian indices fell by 0.2%, marking the first monthly decline since March.

As I mentioned earlier, many stock indices rose over the week as investors strengthened their expectations for a Fed rate cut. Futures indicate about an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month and three additional cuts by the end of 2026. However, despite optimism surrounding potential rate cuts, a sense of caution persists in the market. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic statistics, particularly the lack of data on inflation and employment, which complicates decision-making processes.

"Asian equities are taking a breather after a very strong run," strategists at Global X Management said. "A lot of the recent strength came from a sharp reversal in positioning - softer US data and relief that the AI unwind wasn't turning into something more disorderly."

Regarding the CME, trading was suspended due to cooling issues at one of the data centers, according to an exchange representative. This affected contracts, including those for US crude oil, gasoline, and palm oil, traded on Bursa Malaysia through the CME electronic platform.

Silver settled around $54 per ounce, just below the record high set in October. Gold experienced its fourth monthly gain amid growing expectations of another rate cut in the United States. Rate reductions typically increase the value of the non-yielding metal. The price of Brent crude oil held steady above $63 per barrel, indicating a fourth consecutive monthly decline. At their meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ countries are expected to maintain their plan to suspend production growth until early 2026.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This would help the index gain value and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,842. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,854 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,819. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,801 and open the way to $6,784.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Due to low volatility, the tests of the levels I marked did not occur in the second half of the day. As a result, I was left without trades.

Today, the yen declined against the U.S. dollar on news that the Tokyo Consumer Price Index fell from 2.8% to 2.7%. Conversely, unemployment in Japan remained at 2.6%, despite economists' expectations of a decrease. On the one hand, the slowing inflation in Japan's capital may indicate reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. It should be noted that for a long time, inflation has been a key factor holding the central bank back from abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy. A decrease in the growth rate of prices, even if slight, may give the BoJ more room for maneuver and delay interest rate hikes.

The drop in the yen is likely due to traders interpreting the slowdown in inflation as a signal that the BoJ will not rush to change policy at its December meeting. This, in turn, reduces the yen's appeal against the dollar. At the same time, stable unemployment may somewhat mitigate the negative impact on the yen, as it indicates that the economy is not in a recession after all.

In the coming days, the yen is likely to remain under pressure until new economic data emerges that can clarify the situation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.55 (green line on the chart), with a target at 156.94 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 156.94, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.16, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 156.55 and 156.94.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 156.16 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.76 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.55 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 156.16 and 155.76.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3238 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the pound, which resulted in a 17-pip rise.

Today, significant movements in the GBP/USD pair are not expected, as there are no UK reports in the first half of the day. However, despite the absence of macroeconomic news from the UK, one should consider the indirect impact of events in the Eurozone and the USA. Any surprises in German data or US data may provoke fluctuations in the euro, which in turn will affect the British pound through cross rates. Technical analysis indicates the pair is consolidating in a narrow range, especially given the low trading volume due to the U.S. holiday weekend. Overall, until new drivers for movement appear, a relatively stable situation in the GBP/USD market can be expected, with a focus on continuing the upward trend formed after the UK budget publication this Wednesday.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3248 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3275 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3275, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth is unlikely. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case the price tests 1.3215 for two consecutive times while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3248 and 1.3275.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level to 1.3215 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3192 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers are unlikely to show significant strength today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3248 twice in a row, as the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 1.3215 and 1.3192.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1599 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1599 coincided with the MACD being in overbought territory, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 10 pips.

In the first half of the day, market attention will be focused on several significant economic reports from Germany. The key focus will be on changes in retail sales and unemployment dynamics, including the overall unemployment rate. Following that, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released, along with a speech by the head of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. It is expected that the retail sales report will reflect consumer spending patterns. An increase in this indicator would be favorable for the euro. Unemployment data will provide insights into the current state of the labor market. Inflation dynamics will also be significant; however, only very high price growth would support the euro.

Finally, Nagel's speech will prompt investors to look for signals on future monetary policy, especially amid recent debates about the potential end of the interest rate-cutting cycle. His remarks about inflation and Germany's economic prospects will impact the value of the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1599 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1628. At point 1.1628, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Buying the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1575 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1599 and 1.1628.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1575 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1553, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1599 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a drop to opposing levels of 1.1575 and 1.1553.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 28

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Sellers of the dollar paused yesterday in the absence of new guidelines. Today, in the first half of the day, a considerable amount of important German data is expected, which could lead to a surge in volatility. The figures for changes in retail trade volume, the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released.

These indicators will be key in assessing the state of the German economy and will determine short-term market sentiment. Retail trade figures are expected to provide insights into consumer activity, while unemployment data will shed light on the current employment situation. Inflation, as indicated by the CPI, will be closely monitored, as the European Central Bank is vigilant regarding price pressures in the Eurozone. Joachim Nagel's speech will also attract significant attention. Traders will be looking for hints regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of recent discussions about the end of the interest rate-cutting cycle.

Only very positive reports from Germany will help the euro return to growth today. Otherwise, pressure on risk assets may increase by the end of the week. If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is much higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be best.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buying on a breakout above 1.1591 may lead to an increase in the euro to the region of 1.1613 and 1.1635.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 1.1575 may lead to a decline in the euro to the region of 1.1550 and 1.1527.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buying on a breakout above the level of 1.3245 may lead to an increase in the pound to the region of 1.3277 and 1.3310.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 1.3220 may lead to a decline in the pound to the region of 1.3180 and 1.3150.

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buying on a breakout above the level of 156.55 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the region of 156.87 and 157.16.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 156.25 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the region of 155.80 and 155.54.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1599 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1575 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3247 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3221 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6544 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6525 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4050 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4021 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on November 28

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Bitcoin, trading around $91,000-$92,000, maintains a positive outlook and has good potential for further correction. However, given the weekend conditions in the U.S. and low trading volume, it is unlikely that major players will make their presence felt until the beginning of next week. Ethereum has also clearly established its position above $3,000.

According to a report from Glassnode, the breakthrough of supply clusters from large buyers is a key condition for restoring momentum to a new peak. The chart clearly shows that the nearest clusters are at $93,000–$96,000, a breakthrough of which will open the way to the $100,000–$108,000 range, where active seller resistance is expected.

It seems that the $108,000 mark will be pivotal in breaking the current bearish market, which has not gone away. At the first normal pressure from large players, the decline of both Bitcoin and Ethereum may resume with even greater force than before.

Regarding intraday strategies for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the mid-term, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $91,700, with a target price of $93,300. Near $93,300, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $90,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $91,700 and $93,300.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $90,800, with a target decline to $89,400. Near $89,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $91,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $90,800 and $89,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $3,030, with a target price of $3,080. Near $3,080, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,995 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $3,030 and $3,080.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,995, with a target decline to $2,943. Near $2,943, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $3,030 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $2,995 and $2,943.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Chainlink is still following its bullish bias today, although there is potential for a limited correction.

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[Chainlink]

With both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, then the overall bias direction of the Chainlink cryptocurrency is still strengthening

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 13.72443

2. Resistance. 1 : 13.58148

3. Pivot : 13.40688

4. Support. 1 : 13.26393

5. Support. 2 : 13.08933

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price successfully breaks out and closes above 13.40688, there is potential to test the level at 13.58148.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 13.58148 is also broken, then Chainlink will try to test the level at 13.72443.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Chainlink declines and breaks down below 13.08933.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 13.33489

EMA(200): 13.08961

RSI(14) : 40.15

Economic News Release Agenda:

Due to the national holiday of Black Friday, there will be no economic data releases during the U.S. session tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Although there is potential for a correction, the overall bias for Cardano is still strengthening toward its nearest resistance

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[Cardano]

With the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI indicates potential for a limited correction in the bullish bias of Cardano, although the overall direction of the cryptocurrency's bias remains upward.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 0.44529

2. Resistance. 1 : 0.44021

3. Pivot : 0.43298

4. Support. 1 : 0.42790

5. Support. 2 : 0.42067

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Cardano breaks out and closes above 0.43298, there is potential for it to continue strengthening to 0.44021.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 0.44021 is successfully broken, Cardano may continue its strength up to 0.44529.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Cardano falls and breaks down below 0.42067.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 0.43018

EMA(200): 0.42529

RSI(14) : 34.50 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Due to the national holiday of Black Friday, there will be no economic data releases during the U.S. session tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.