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Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on September 18: The U.S. Economy Continues to Slow Down

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward bias throughout the day, right up until the Fed meeting. Trading showed extremely low volatility, as no one in the market wanted to take risks before the central bank's decision. The results of the meeting and all subsequent market moves will be analyzed tomorrow. For today, it's enough to note that the U.S. economy continues to weaken in the "Trump era."

Recall that Donald Trump promised "explosive economic growth," but he never clarified when this explosive growth would arrive. Most likely—not anytime soon. In recent months, only activity in the services sector has remained afloat. Unemployment is rising, industrial output is falling, retail sales are weak, and inflation is climbing. Yesterday, it also became known that new housing starts are declining in the U.S., along with building permits. In short, nearly all indicators are pointing downward. Experts are once again speaking openly about a recession.

The dollar continues to fall under Trump's policies and will likely remain out of favor with traders for a long time. On all timeframes, the trend is upward. Thus, even in the very short term, there's little reason to expect dollar strength. Of course, certain events may trigger temporary rebounds, but the overall macro and fundamental background remains firmly against the greenback.

On the 5-minute TF, only one formal trading signal was formed yesterday. During the European session, the price briefly moved away from the 1.1846–1.1857 area, only to return to it within a couple of hours. Daily volatility was "below the floor."

COT Report

The latest COT report (as of September 9) shows the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time, with bears only barely taking the upper hand at the end of 2024, and quickly losing it. Since Trump took office as US President, the dollar has been the only currency to fall. We can't say with 100% certainty that the dollar will keep declining, but current events globally do point in that direction.

We still see no fundamental reasons for euro strength, but plenty are supporting the dollar's drop. The global long-term downtrend remains, but what does the last 17 years' price action matter now? Once Trump ends his trade wars, the dollar may rally, but recent events show that won't happen anytime soon. Potential loss of Fed independence is another major pressure point for the US currency.

The red and blue lines of the indicator keep pointing to a persistent "bullish" trend. In the last reporting week, the number of longs in the Non-commercial group rose by 2,400 contracts, while shorts fell by 3,700. Thus, the net position increased by 6,100 contracts, which isn't a significant change.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD continues to trend upward. Yesterday, the upward move gained momentum, and on the daily TF, it's clear that the 2025 uptrend has officially resumed. Traders are thus justified in expecting the euro to climb another 500–600 points. There is no limit to the dollar's decline, given Trump's current policies.

For September 18, the key trading levels are: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1534, 1.1604–1.1615, 1.1666, 1.1750–1.1760, 1.1846–1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971–1.1988, along with Senkou Span B (1.1694) and Kijun-sen (1.1770). Lines of the Ichimoku indicator may shift during the day, which should be considered when identifying signals. Don't forget to set Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction—this will protect against false signals.

On Thursday, Christine Lagarde will deliver yet another speech in the eurozone, while the U.S. will publish the relatively minor jobless claims report. From Lagarde's third speech this week, expectations are the same as the first two—nothing new. The ECB meeting took place last week, and the market has already received all the necessary information.

Trading Recommendations

On Thursday, the pair may continue/resume its move north. Whatever the Fed decides, and however the market reacts, the situation for the U.S. dollar remains unchanged—and will not change anytime soon.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for GBP/USD on September 18: Inflation Didn't Spoil the Picture

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair also continued its upward movement until late in the evening. The pound sterling continues to rise steadily and confidently, with all necessary factors supporting it. U.K. data published this week did not spoil the picture for the pound. The British economy is far from being in its best shape, but that's not the main factor for traders right now. At most, domestic reports could have triggered a minor local pullback, while the pound is capable of growing even without supportive data from the U.K.

Yesterday, inflation was released and came exactly in line with forecasts. In August, headline CPI remained unchanged at 3.8%. Core inflation slowed slightly to 3.6%. Neither of these values suggests a more dovish tilt at today's Bank of England meeting. The British central bank will almost certainly leave the key rate unchanged, with the only intrigue being the voting split in the Monetary Policy Committee. The market expects no more than two members to support a rate cut under current conditions. If there are three or more, the pound could see a short-term drop.

On the 5-minute TF, not a single trading signal was formed yesterday, leaving traders with no reason to enter the market—especially ahead of the Fed meeting results.

COT Report

COT reports on the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has been constantly changing in recent years. The red and blue lines (net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders) cross frequently and generally stay near zero. Right now, they're almost at the same level, which signals roughly equal amounts of long and short positions.

The dollar is still falling due to Trump's policies, so market maker demand for the pound is not so important right now. The trade war will continue, one way or another, for a long time. The Fed will lower rates at least once more within the next year, so dollar demand will keep falling. The latest COT report shows "Non-commercial" closed 1,200 BUY contracts and 700 SELL contracts. So, the net position decreased by 500 contracts during the reporting week.

The pound shot up in 2025, but the cause is clear—Donald Trump's policy. Once that factor is neutralized, the dollar could rally, but no one knows when that will happen. It doesn't really matter whether the net position in the pound rises or falls—the dollar's net position keeps shrinking, usually at a faster pace.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD is preparing for a new uptrend—and that's precisely what is happening. The fundamental and macroeconomic background remains weak for the dollar, so there's still no reason to expect medium-term growth. This week, a correction is theoretically possible, but technical signals are needed to confirm it, such as a break of the trendline.

For September 18, the important levels are: 1.3125, 1.3212, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3420, 1.3525–1.3548, 1.3615, 1.3681, 1.3763, 1.3833, 1.3886. Senkou Span B (1.3460) and Kijun-sen (1.3581) lines may also generate signals. Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven once the price goes 20 pips in the right direction. Note that Ichimoku lines may shift during the day and should be factored into signal evaluation.

On Thursday, the BoE will announce its policy decision. Additionally, during the European session, traders will still be reacting to the Fed meeting and Powell's speech. Therefore, Thursday is likely to be highly volatile—unlike many recent sessions. In the U.S., the calendar contains nothing noteworthy.

Trading Recommendations

We expect that on Thursday, GBP/USD may continue or resume its rise, as nearly all factors point in this direction. However, fundamental events from Wednesday and Thursday may have a strong short-term impact on market sentiment, leading to complex, volatile movements with sharp reversals and price swings.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines where movement may end. They are not trading signal sources.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines—These are strong Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
• Extremum levels – thin red lines where the price has previously rebounded. These act as trading signal sources.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – the size of the net position for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Europe Goes Against Trump

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Just yesterday, I wrote about Trump's demand for the European Union to impose tariffs on India and China as part of his strategy against Russia. The very framing of this issue raises countless questions, but that's how things stand in Washington. Trump, who had praised Russia for several months, clearly expected that his flattery would help stop the war in Ukraine. In practice, however, the situation turned out differently, and the White House is dissatisfied. He continues to insist that Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin must sign a peace agreement, but more than a month has passed since the historic Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, which was supposed to kickstart negotiations. Nothing has moved forward.

Therefore, Trump decided to fire on all fronts at once. He does not want to impose sanctions on Russia, since he still calls Russia "a friend of America" and hopes Moscow's foreign policy will not align too closely with India and China. But that's precisely the direction it is taking. As a result, Trump opted to put pressure on Beijing and New Delhi, while also aiming to funnel dollars into the U.S. budget.

Trump wants both Asian powers to stop purchasing Russian energy, cutting off the Kremlin's war financing. Yet both India and China have made it clear that their trade policy cannot depend on the whims of the White House or its vision of global order. They insist on deciding for themselves where and how much oil and gas to buy for their economies. If they don't buy from Russia, then where? Trump, of course, would prefer they buy from America. Meanwhile, Europe has little appetite for imposing tariffs on India and China, especially if that means halting energy imports from Russia. Any "oil sanctions" will almost certainly be blocked by Hungary and Slovakia, which openly and directly import Russian supplies.

The European Union is considering not tariffs against India, but rather a free trade agreement. Brussels wants to expand cooperation with India, not confront it, as Trump suggests. Washington's position is, of course, convenient for itself—America is across the Atlantic, and from there it's easy to dictate terms about how others should live.

But Brussels has not lost its sense of reason or independence, and it will act in its own interest, not in the interest of U.S. politicians. The EU clearly understands that in the event of a conflict, the blow would fall on Europe, not on the United States.

Wave pattern on EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues forming an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news backdrop, tied to Trump's decisions and the domestic and foreign policy of the new U.S. administration. Targets for the current trend segment may extend to the 1.25 level. Since the backdrop remains unchanged, I continue holding long positions despite the first target at 1.1875 (161.8% Fibonacci) being reached. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, corresponding to 200.0% Fibonacci.

Wave pattern on GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. The pair is in a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, markets may face many shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave picture, but the current scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy is consistent. The targets for the bullish segment are located near the 261.8% Fibonacci level. At present, I expect the uptrend to continue within wave 3 of 5, with a target of 1.4017.

Core principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you're unsure of market direction, it's better not to enter.
3. There can never be 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Why Is the Pound Rising?

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The pound against the dollar continues testing the resistance level of 1.3650 (upper Bollinger Bands line on the D1 timeframe), despite the general strengthening of the greenback. After Tuesday's sharp drop to 95.96, the U.S. dollar index on Wednesday is attempting to recover at least partially. DXY has returned to the 96 range, and major dollar pairs adjusted accordingly, reflecting the greenback's rebound. However, GBP/USD stands apart: despite the dollar's recovery, the pound keeps pressing the 1.3650 barrier.

The UK inflation report, published on Wednesday, favored GBP/USD buyers, as it confirmed persistently high inflation levels, giving the Bank of England grounds to keep interest rates unchanged. With the central bank's meeting scheduled for Thursday (September 18), the report carries significant weight for GBP/USD traders.

According to the data, headline CPI grew by 3.8% year-over-year in August, the same pace as in July, though some analysts expected an uptick to 3.9%. Even so, the current inflation level is unacceptably high for the central bank. The July–August pace marks the fastest increase since January 2024.

Core CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed as expected, to 3.6% from 3.8%. Despite the decline, the figure remains far from the BoE's 2% target.

The Retail Price Index (RPI), used by employers in wage negotiations, eased slightly to 4.6% y/y from 4.8% in July, but remains uncomfortably high. Service-sector inflation, another important component, fell to 4.7% y/y in August from 5.0% previously.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose sharply by 5.1% y/y, while prices for restaurants, hotels, and fuel also increased.

Overall, inflation remains stubbornly high and well above the BoE's target. There are no clear signs of a significant decline in core inflation.

One major factor preventing a faster slowdown is wage growth. The data showed average earnings, including bonuses, accelerated to 4.7% from 4.6%, after three consecutive months of declines. Average earnings excluding bonuses fell to 4.8% from 5.0%. Wage growth was concentrated in services (notably hospitality, catering, education, and healthcare) and the public sector.

Wage growth in the 4.5–5.0% range is seen as incompatible with 2% inflation, especially if productivity remains weak. This is why the market largely ignored the rise in unemployment to 4.7% in July and the 17,000 increase in jobless claims, focusing instead on the wage component.

Thus, the fundamental backdrop supports further GBP/USD upside. The inflation data allows the BoE to remain on hold, providing additional support for the pound—particularly against the dollar, which faces expected Fed rate cuts in September and beyond. Divergence between BoE and Fed policy paths will continue to support GBP/USD, unless the Fed takes an overly cautious stance this week. If the Fed cuts rates and signals more easing ahead, the pair may advance into the 1.37 area.

Technical outlook: Across H1, H4, D1, W1, and MN timeframes, GBP/USD is either near the upper Bollinger Bands line or between its middle and upper bands, while also remaining above all Ichimoku lines. On the H4, daily, and weekly charts, Ichimoku has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. The main (and for now only) upside target lies at 1.3710—the upper Bollinger Bands line on D1.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Falls Into the Same Trap

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But aren't they guilty themselves? It turns out Scott Bessent also listed two of his houses as his primary residence. Donald Trump called such actions by Lisa Cook mortgage fraud and a reason to dismiss her from her position as FOMC governor. Should the Treasury Secretary be fired as well? The U.S. president often presents wishful thinking as fact. This also applies to his calls for the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points or more. According to him, the central bank should listen to someone as smart as he is.

A massive sell-off of the U.S. dollar allowed EUR/USD to soar to 4-year highs. The euro has never risen so fast during the first nine months of a year as it has in 2025. The Fed remains fixated on the labor market. It's no surprise that investors are ignoring strong data on other important indicators – inflation and retail sales. Speculators continue to dump the U.S. dollar on expectations of a renewed cycle of monetary expansion.

Dynamics of speculative positions in the U.S. dollar

Euro bulls are not deterred by either the escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine, with Russian drones appearing on Polish territory, or the political crisis in France. These events are viewed as secondary. The main stage is set in Washington. Meanwhile, the eurozone's resilience to tariffs, against the backdrop of a cooling U.S. economy, provides additional tailwinds for EUR/USD bulls.

In the short term, the main currency pair may even extend its rally if updated federal funds rate projections show two cuts in 2025. The derivatives market is pricing in three, while Bloomberg experts expect two. The Fed will decide. The central bank's verdict will determine the short-term direction of EUR/USD. Over the longer horizon, however, the pair's fate seems predetermined.

Market expectations for the Fed's rate

In reality, the current situation painfully resembles the 1970s. President Richard Nixon shared the same desire to boost the U.S. economy through rate cuts. The same pressure on Fed Chair Arthur Burns. Eventually, he gave in. Monetary policy was loosened, and inflation returned. Prices began to surge uncontrollably, and the new central bank head, Paul Volcker, was forced into aggressive monetary tightening. The result is well known: a double-dip recession.

If Trump calls himself a smart man, he should know history and understand the pressure on the Fed that leads to it. In today's context, it is seen as a threat to central bank independence. And there's no worse scenario for the U.S. dollar.

Technically, on the daily EUR/USD chart, the uptrend has resumed, followed by a slight pullback of the bulls. They still hold the initiative. Therefore, a rebound from support at 1.182 or a return above the current bar's high at 1.187 should be used for buying.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Gold Dizzy from Success

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Gold stepped back ahead of the Fed's verdict. Few doubt that the central bank will cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. However, the number of dissenters, signals about future monetary policy, and the dot plot forecast will be critical for XAU/USD. The precious metal had long been rising and reached record highs, but investors chose to play it safe before this key event.

The best environment for gold is stagflation. It has never fallen in the 21st century during periods when U.S. inflation was rising while the Fed was cutting rates. In this regard, the acceleration of consumer prices in August to 2.9% y/y, coupled with expectations of a renewed monetary expansion cycle, is an important source of support for XAU/USD—though not the only one.

China announced an easing of controls on gold imports. In theory, this should boost demand for U.S. dollars, which are used to purchase bullion. Beijing is concerned about the yuan's strength, which is becoming another noose around exporters' necks—alongside high U.S. tariffs. For the precious metal, this is good news. Rising imports from China provide another argument in favor of an XAU/USD rally.

Dynamics of Chinese gold imports

The rally in 2025 has been remarkable. Gold has risen by more than 40%, set three dozen nominal records, and even one inflation-adjusted record that had stood since 1980. Goldman Sachs does not rule out a surge to $5,000 per ounce if even 1% of the U.S. Treasury bond market capital flows into gold. Deutsche Bank also raised its 2026 average price forecast from 3700 to 4000 dollars, citing dollar weakness, strong central bank demand for bullion, and the Fed's aggressive monetary expansion cycle.

The main risks to this scenario include a prolonged pause in rate cuts in 2026, gold's seasonal weakness in the fourth quarter based on 10- and 20-year patterns, and strong U.S. stock market performance. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset, so rising global risk appetite should, in theory, work against it. In practice, however, the S&P 500 and XAU/USD can rise comfortably together.

Adding to this are ongoing geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, threats to Fed independence, and global dedollarization and reserve diversification. Together, these paint a bright outlook for the precious metal.

Technically, on the daily chart, gold has so far failed to consolidate above the key pivot level of 3680 dollars per ounce. This may be the first sign of weakness among the bulls. Only a decline below fair value at 3645 and the previous local high bar's low at 3625 would confirm selling potential. That would also trigger an Anti-Turtles pattern. As long as the precious metal trades above these levels, the focus should remain on buying.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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The Japanese yen continues sideways consolidation ahead of the Fed's rate decision. Growing recognition that the Bank of Japan will maintain its policy of normalization, combined with cautious market sentiment, has been one of the main factors supporting the yen as a safe-haven currency. At the same time, traders remain restrained and avoid taking aggressive positions ahead of key central bank policy events.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce its rate decision today, with at least a 25-basis-point cut anticipated amid signs of labor market weakness. This contrasts sharply with the hawkish expectations for the Bank of Japan.

The resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has added further uncertainty and could be a strong argument for the Bank of Japan to slow the pace of rate hikes. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday remains in focus. The rate is expected to stay unchanged at 0.5%, given domestic challenges and global risks, including the impact of U.S. tariffs. At the same time, market consensus is that the Bank of Japan will still raise rates by the end of the year.

By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is projected to resume its rate-cutting cycle, reducing borrowing costs by 25 basis points. Moreover, markets are pricing in the possibility of two additional cuts this year amid weakening labor market signals. These expectations have been a major driver of the dollar's recent drop to lows last seen in July.On the diplomatic front, U.S. President Donald Trump stepped up calls for a peaceful resolution of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, proposing to President Zelensky the signing of a ceasefire agreement and urging Europe to immediately halt purchases of Russian oil.

Meanwhile, Israel launched its long-planned ground operation in Gaza, advancing deep into a city that has faced weeks of heavy airstrikes. In addition, an emergency summit of Arab and Islamic leaders in Doha on September 9 condemned Israel's actions toward Hamas leadership, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated and supporting the yen as a safe-haven asset.

From a technical perspective, the break and close below the round 147.00 level became a new trigger for the bears. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have turned negative, indicating that the path of least resistance for the pair is downward. However, a small rebound from the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 146.20 calls for some caution. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for selling to continue below this area and under 146.00 before planning further losses.

On the other hand, a recovery above the nearest level at 146.70 would attract new sellers and remain capped at the round 147.00 level. But subsequent buying beyond that point could lift USD/JPY above 147.55, on the way toward the round 148.00 level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, gold prices are correcting from the record high reached on Tuesday, amid a moderate recovery in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has paused its decline as markets reposition ahead of the key FOMC rate decision, which has put slight pressure on the precious metal. As a result, gold ended its three-day winning streak after setting a new all-time high. Nevertheless, downward potential remains limited.

Investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle, with two cuts expected before the end of this year. This outlook caps further U.S. dollar strength and supports gold, keeping it near historical highs.

In addition, geopolitical risks stemming from the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East help limit losses in the precious metal, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset. This, in turn, calls for caution from XAU/USD bears.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is in overbought territory, which is a key factor encouraging profit-taking in this asset. However, the corrective pullback may be seen as a buying opportunity near the 3658 level. But a decline below this point, leading to further losses under 3630, could drive the precious metal's price toward the 3612–3600 level.

This zone represents a solid base for XAU/USD; a break below it would open the way to deeper losses toward support at 3578–3565–3540, on the path to the psychological 3500 level.

On the other hand, bulls should wait for sustained growth and a firm break above the round 3700 level before opening positions to continue the established upward trend.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Analysis of GBP/USD on September 17, 2025

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The wave structure for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave sequence. The wave pattern is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only "driver" remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is declining across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing nearly identical dynamics. At the moment, the formation of the assumed wave 5 continues, within which waves 1 and 2 have already been formed. The current wave structure raises no doubts.

It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies, and not only trade policy. Occasionally, positive news emerges from the U.S., but the market keeps in mind ongoing uncertainty in the economy, contradictory decisions and statements by Trump, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. The market also fears Fed easing, for which there are now more reasons than just a weak labor market.

The GBP/USD pair rose by 50 basis points during Tuesday and Wednesday, which is not much. I cannot say that the news background over these two days demanded a stronger appreciation of the British currency, but it does open additional prospects for it. Let me explain. The Bank of England has paused its cycle of monetary policy easing. Accordingly, the main question for the pound is: how long will this pause last? Its duration will depend on the state of the economy, the labor market, unemployment, and inflation. The UK economy has been growing at a modest pace for several years, but it seems the British Parliament does not expect more. The unemployment rate is rising, inflation is also rising. Based on this, I can assume that over the next year to year and a half, the Bank of England will also balance between two fires, just like the Fed.

The UK does not have a NonFarm Payrolls report, so we can judge the labor market only by the unemployment rate and reports on changes in employment/unemployment. The unemployment rate has risen by 0.7% over the past year, but inflation has more than doubled. I dare suggest that the Consumer Price Index is of greater concern to Bank of England officials than unemployment. I believe that in the near future all efforts will be directed at preventing the indicator from moving into the "above 4%" level. Therefore, a rate cut by the Bank of England before the end of the year should not be expected.

At the same time, the Fed may lower the rate at all three remaining meetings in 2025, which puts the dollar in a remarkably weak position. That is why I believe the pound's growth potential is now, if not enormous, then quite significant. Inflation in the UK in August did not increase but also did not slow down. This report can be considered positive for the pound.

General conclusions

The wave pattern of GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive section of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could significantly affect the wave structure, but at the moment the working scenario remains intact, and Trump's policy is unchanged. The targets of the upward trend section are located around the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect continued growth within wave 3 of 5 with a target at 1.4017.

The larger-scale wave structure looks almost perfect, even though wave 4 moved beyond the maximum of wave 1. However, let me remind you that perfect wave patterns exist only in textbooks. In practice, things are much more complicated. At present, I see no reason to consider alternative scenarios or make adjustments.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Crypto market: what else drives Bitcoin's trend besides Fed's interest rates

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The main event of the week — and of today — is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. As market participants brace for the interest rate decision (scheduled for 18:00 GMT), the dollar is undergoing a correction, with the USDX index rebounding from its two-month low recorded on Tuesday near the 96.55 mark. The dollar is seeing a slight recovery — its sellers appear to be locking in some profits ahead of the key Fed announcement.

However, today's Fed decision may shape the future trajectory not only of the US dollar but also of risk assets, including Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

The BTC/USD pair, after reaching a four-week high near 117,320.00 in early European trading, is correcting downward ahead of the Fed's announcement. At the time of this publication, the pair is trading around 116,350.00.

Nevertheless, crypto market experts believe that the immediate market response will depend less on the actual rate cut itself and more on the statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his guidance regarding future monetary policy steps.

Possible scenarios

• An aggressive rate cut (more than 25 basis points) could spark a rally in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
• No significant changes may lead to a price correction.
• A "hawkish" Fed tone (unexpectedly firm) could trigger heightened volatility, especially given currently elevated asset valuations.

In August, amid speculation over the Fed's September decision, Bitcoin hit an all-time high at about 124,500.00, but ended the month down 13% from its peak.

Meanwhile, crypto analysts emphasize that interest rates are not the sole driver of Bitcoin's price trend. Even a rate cut might not lead to price growth if it's rooted in economic weakness, while high inflation and investor caution could continue to dampen risk appetite.

Conclusion

The market is watching the Fed's policy meeting closely, but it's important to remember that a broader mix of economic factors and investor sentiment plays an equally significant role in shaping the future direction of the crypto market.

Overall, our base case remains a further upward move in Bitcoin. A breakout above today's high of 117,320.00 could once again pave the way toward the recent record highs near 124,500.00. Any correction following the Fed's decisions and forecasts is likely to remain limited to the support zone around 115,000.00–113,500.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US stock market news digest on September 17

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Potential deep drop in the S&P 500 after the Fed's announcement

Analysts forecast that the S&P 500 index could face a significant decline following the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates. The index is expected to potentially drop into the 5916–5973 range, posing risks not only of a short-term correction but also of a long-term recession for the U.S. economy. Investors are seriously concerned about the possibility of slower economic growth if the Fed opts for a more hawkish stance. The market remains cautious as it awaits the outcome of the meeting. [More at the link.]

US stock indices close lower amid Fed rate decision anticipation

Yesterday, major US stock indices ended the trading day in the red — the S&P 500 declined by 0.13%. This performance reflects growing uncertainty among investors who are waiting for clarity from the Federal Reserve on potential monetary policy easing. In anticipation of the news, the market is showing signs of caution — participants prefer to avoid active moves, leading to subdued price action. [More at the link.]

Profit-taking and Fed expectations fuel market turbulence

Ahead of the Fed meeting, investors are visibly reassessing their strategies. Many are opting to close positions and lock in profits amid concerns over potential market instability driven by the Fed's upcoming statements. There is a widespread belief that at least three committee members may support a significant rate cut. Market participants are also voicing concerns over rising asset prices and the influence of political factors on the future of the US economy. [More at the link.]

The dollar weakens, the euro gains ahead of the Fed's decision

The US dollar is extending weakness ahead of the critical Fed meeting, while the euro is gaining strength amid expectations of lower US interest rates. This movement is creating new opportunities in the forex market: investors are actively increasing their euro positions and adjusting their trading strategies in response to shifting currency demand. Volatility is rising, opening up new entry points for traders. [More at the link.]

US stock market declines as investors stay on the sidelines

The US stock market ended another trading session in the red, despite positive retail sales data. Investors have taken a cautious, wait-and-see approach ahead of the Fed's decision on future interest rate policy. This uncertainty and risk-aversion have contributed to the decline of major indices and may impact market performance in the coming days. [More at the link.]

Reminder: InstaForex offers the best conditions for trading stock indices, equities, and bonds, allowing you to profit from changes in market dynamics.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Level and Target Adjustments for the U.S. Session – September 17th

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Today, the pound and the Australian dollar were traded using the Mean Reversion strategy. I tried to trade the yen through Momentum, but the result was mediocre.

The released data showing a decline in the Consumer Price Index in the eurozone put pressure on the euro. However, falling inflation is not an unconditional signal for policy easing. Observers note that the slowdown in consumer price growth may be driven not only by the ECB's effective measures but also by weaker economic growth in the region and external factors such as lower energy prices. In this context, a premature rate cut could lead to undesirable consequences, something some ECB representatives have recently emphasized.

UK inflation data also did not change the balance in GBP/USD, as the results matched economists' forecasts.

In the second half of the day, the Fed is expected to cut the interest rate, most likely by a quarter point. But more important are the projections to be published. The rate cut, though anticipated, is only a small part of the complex puzzle traders have to solve. The true key lies in the details—in the carefully worded statements in the minutes, in subtle hints about future actions, and in the individual forecasts of committee members. Every word from Chair Powell will be examined under a microscope, and every change in the economic projections will trigger speculation. The market seeks clarity: does the Fed intend to continue a dovish easing policy, or was this a one-off step?

In addition, it is important to consider the geopolitical environment. Trade wars, political instability, and the unpredictability of global economic processes add uncertainty, forcing the Fed to act cautiously and flexibly. Will the U.S. regulator be able to balance domestic economic needs and external shocks, or will its actions lead to undesirable consequences? It remains to be seen.

In the case of strong statistics, I will rely on the Momentum strategy. If the market shows no reaction to the data, I will continue to use the Mean Reversion strategy.

Momentum strategy (breakout) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.1862 may lead to growth toward 1.1903 and 1.1937;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.1830 may lead to a decline toward 1.1790 and 1.1750;

For GBP/USD

• Buying on a breakout of 1.3667 may lead to growth toward 1.3707 and 1.3746;
• Selling on a breakout of 1.3625 may lead to a decline toward 1.3590 and 1.3555;

For USD/JPY

• Buying on a breakout of 146.70 may lead to growth toward 147.40 and 147.72;
• Selling on a breakout of 146.20 may lead to a decline toward 145.70 and 145.20;

Mean Reversion strategy (return) for the second half of the day:

For EUR/USD

• I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.1867 and a return below this level;
• I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.1828 and a return above this level;

For GBP/USD

• I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.3657 and a return below this level;
• I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.3623 and a return above this level;

For AUD/USD

• I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 0.6682 and a return below this level;
• I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 0.6666 and a return above this level;

For USD/CAD

• I will look for sales after a failed breakout above 1.3765 and a return below this level;
• I will look for purchases after a failed breakout below 1.3741 and a return above this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: simple trading tips for beginner traders on September 17th (U.S. session)

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Trade review and tips for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 146.62 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. The second test of 146.62, when the MACD was in the overbought area, led to the execution of sell scenario #2 and a 30-point drop in the yen.

In the second half of the day, everything depends on the FOMC. The key interest rate will be announced, the committee's economic review will be published, and then Jerome Powell's press conference will take place. The recent unstable economic situation in the country makes the FOMC's decision a powerful factor capable of causing significant swings in financial markets. A rate cut and signals of similar policy in the future would lead to a sharp weakening of the dollar and strengthening of the Japanese yen. Apart from the rate decision itself, special attention will be paid to the FOMC's economic projections. This document will provide insight into how committee members see the future of the economy, including growth, inflation, and employment prospects. Any mismatch between the FOMC's outlook and market expectations could trigger volatility and repricing of assets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference is today's most important event. Given that today's debates are mainly focused on possible monetary easing, with signs of slowing economic growth and subdued inflation, many market participants expect Powell to strike a dovish tone, which would be negative for the dollar and positive for the yen.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 146.78 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 148.26 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.26 I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from the level). Growth in the pair can be expected only after a firm Fed stance. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.17 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 146.78 and 148.26.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after breaking below 146.17 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.67, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed strikes a dovish tone. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 146.78 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 146.17 and 146.77.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: simple trading tips for beginner traders on September 17th (U.S. session)

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Trade review and tips for trading the British pound

The price test of 1.3631 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the pound's downward potential. In the first half of the day, inflation data was released in the UK. The market showed no reaction. The pound sterling continued to trade within a narrow sideways channel. It will likely remain there until the Fed's decision.

In the second half of the day, the FOMC decision on the key interest rate, FOMC economic projections, and Jerome Powell's press conference are expected. Markets are frozen in anticipation. Investors and analysts around the world are preparing for the moment of truth, when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its decision on the key interest rate. In recent months, the economic situation in the country has remained rather weak, and the FOMC's decision could become a catalyst for further moves in financial markets.

Beyond the rate decision itself, close attention will be paid to the economic projections presented by the FOMC. These will provide insight into how committee members view the future of the economy, including prospects for growth, inflation, and employment. Any discrepancies between the FOMC's outlook and market expectations could trigger volatility and repricing of assets. The highlight of the day will be the press conference of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He will answer journalists' questions and try to clarify the FOMC's stance, as well as comment on the latest economic data. His words will likely be scrutinized for hints about future monetary policy.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today I plan to buy the pound at the entry point around 1.3660 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3731 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3731 I will close purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move back from the level). A strong rise in the pound today can be expected after weak Fed forecasts. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3631 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3660 and 1.3730.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below 1.3631 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3574, where I will exit sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from the level). The pound will fall if the Fed takes a firm stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3660 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3631 and 1.3574.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: simple trading tips for beginner traders on September 17th (U.S. session)

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Trade review and tips for trading the euro

The price test of 1.1845 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which limited the downward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell the euro.

Weak inflation data in the euro area, which fell to the target of 2.0%, is holding back EUR/USD growth, as it gives the European Central Bank the freedom to cut rates promptly if necessary. For this reason, the ECB will most likely approach decision-making with caution, carefully assessing all possible risks.

In the current economic situation, the most probable scenario is maintaining the existing policy, providing room for maneuver depending on future developments.

In the second half of the day, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a cut in the key interest rate, presumably by 0.25%. However, the main focus will be on the updated economic projections and the committee's future plans regarding further stimulus measures. The rate cut itself is already priced in, so the context and outlook are what matter most. The details—wording in the meeting minutes and individual committee members' assessments—are of key importance.

Fed Chair Powell's statement will be closely analyzed, and any slight downward revisions to forecasts could trigger active dollar selling and euro buying.

As for intraday strategy, I will focus mainly on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at around 1.1864 (green line on the chart) with a target at 1.1945. At 1.1945 I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35-point move from the entry level. Counting on euro growth is only reasonable if the Fed's forecasts turn out weak. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1831 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1864 and 1.1945.

Sell signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching 1.1831 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1762, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move back from this level). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed maintains a firm stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move downward.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1864 price level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1831 and 1.1762.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument.
• Thick green line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument.
• Thick red line – estimated price where Take Profit can be set or profits fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one I presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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From a technical perspective, yesterday's break of the round level of 147.00 and consolidation below it became a fresh trigger for the bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has once again started moving lower, indicating that the path of least resistance for spot prices is downward. However, a minor rebound from support at 146.20, where the 100-day SMA is currently aligned, calls for caution. Therefore, it would be prudent to wait for sustained selling below this area, as well as below the round level of 146.00, before planning further losses. In that case, the pair would accelerate its decline toward intermediate support at 145.30, opening the way to the psychological level of 145.00.

On the other hand, a recovery above the nearest resistance zone of 146.70 would attract new sellers and remain capped at the round level of 147.00. However, subsequent buying beyond the 147.15–147.20 level, where the 100-day EMA passes, could lift USD/JPY toward the 147.50–147.60 level, where the 50-day SMA lies, on the way to the round level of 148.00. A firm move above this level would trigger short covering toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which currently sits near 148.70. The next levels would be the round 149.00 and the monthly high around 149.15–149.20. If decisively broken, short-term sentiment would shift in favor of the bulls.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The NZD/USD pair is struggling to extend its recent two-day rally that set a new monthly high. Sellers are now appearing near the psychological level of 0.6000, but the decline remains limited as traders await the key decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed is expected to announce at least a 25-basis-point rate cut. Market focus is on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference, which should provide guidance on the future rate path. These signals will have a direct impact on the short-term dynamics of the U.S. dollar and may set a new impulse for the NZD/USD pair.

Ahead of this important event, position adjustments are taking place, leading to a moderate recovery of the dollar from its lowest levels since early July.

At the same time, investor caution continues to support the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency, putting pressure on the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar. However, significant dollar strengthening is unlikely, given the growing expectations of more active Fed easing, which overall supports the NZD/USD pair and limits potential losses.

Going forward, market attention will shift to the release of New Zealand's Q2 GDP data, which is expected to show a 0.3% contraction following 0.8% growth in Q1. These figures may reinforce expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and determine the near-term direction of NZD/USD. Nonetheless, current fundamentals require caution from the bears.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, prices are trading above the 100-day SMA, and the 9-day EMA is above the 14-day EMA. All this confirms a positive outlook for NZD/USD. The nearest resistance is seen at 0.5990, just below the round level of 0.6000. Immediate support lies at the 100-day SMA around 0.5960, and if prices fall below this level, the next support will be at 0.5940.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for EUR/USD on September 17, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.1789–1.1802 and continued its upward movement toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1896. Today, a rebound from this level would work in favor of the U.S. currency and lead to some decline toward 1.1802. A consolidation above 1.1896 would increase the probability of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 161.8% at 1.2034.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward and clear. The last upward wave broke the peak of the previous one, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, the trend is currently "bullish." The latest labor market data and the changed outlook for the Fed's monetary policy support only bullish traders, while the bears are left with nothing.

On Tuesday, the bulls did not have many reasons for a new attack, but the market decided to act in advance. Today, the Fed meeting will be held, where an interest rate cut will be announced, and traders already priced in this event yesterday. Was it justified that the dollar fell again? Most likely, yes. Today's Fed decision will only be the first step, so the market is logically pricing in further rate cuts, of which there may be quite a few. Of course, if Jerome Powell this evening once again emphasizes the importance of economic data and states that there is no planned rate-cutting strategy, this may work against the bulls, who already traded on the "dovish" scenario. However, one way or another, the dollar faces nothing favorable in the near future. Everyone in the market understands this, so any new corrective pullback will be used by traders only for fresh EUR/USD purchases. It is also worth noting that, in principle, fairly good reports on industrial production and retail sales in the U.S. yesterday caused no reaction. The market is fully focused on Powell's speech and the signals the Fed will deliver.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the horizontal corridor, allowing traders to expect further growth. A consolidation above the 161.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1854 will increase the chances of continued growth toward the next level at 1.2066, while a rebound from this level would allow for a decline toward 1.1680. Needless to say, I do not particularly believe in the second scenario. The CCI indicator is shaping up for a "bearish" divergence, but everything today will depend on the Fed.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 2,389 long positions and closed 3,696 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish, thanks to Donald Trump, and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 258,000, compared to 132,000 short positions. The gap is effectively twofold. Also, note the number of green cells in the table above, which show strong increases in positions on the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar declines.

For thirty-one consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create many problems of a long-term and structural nature for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to show declines.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (07:30 UTC). Eurozone – Consumer Price Index (09:00 UTC). U.S. – Building permits (12:30 UTC). U.S. – Housing starts (12:30 UTC). U.S. – FOMC decision on interest rate (18:00 UTC). U.S. – FOMC economic projections (18:00 UTC). U.S. – Fed press conference (18:30 UTC).

On September 17, the economic calendar contains seven entries, of which the last three are the most significant. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be strong.

EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Short positions in the pair can be considered today on the hourly chart if there is a rebound from 1.1896, with a target at 1.1802. Long positions could have been taken after consolidation above the 1.1789–1.1802 zone with a target at 1.1896. Today, it is better to close these trades in profit and wait for new signals. However, the bulls may continue their attacks today.

The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and between 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for GBP/USD on September 17, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday continued its upward move and consolidated above the resistance zone of 1.3611–1.3620. Thus, the upward movement may extend today toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.3708. A decline in the pound will be considered only if the pair closes below the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3587, with a target at 1.3482.

The wave structure remains bullish. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily broke the last peak. The news background does not allow bears to go on the offensive. The market expects strong monetary policy easing from the FOMC, which adds strength to bulls. At present, there are no grounds to expect a sharp decline in GBP/USD.

On Tuesday, traders ignored all reports that did not fit their outlook. U.S. industrial production volumes rose by 0.1% in August (above expectations), and retail sales grew by 0.6% (also above forecasts). Nevertheless, bears did not attempt an attack. In the morning, UK reports on unemployment and wages were published, but the market paid no attention to them. This morning, the UK released inflation data, which is unlikely to deter bulls. Inflation stood at 3.8% y/y, as expected. Core inflation was 3.6%, also as expected. Thus, nearly all UK reports this week have shown no significant fluctuations. However, this is not a problem. Today and tomorrow, traders will have plenty to digest. First, the Fed will announce its decision, followed by the Bank of England. It seems likely that bears will once again be left empty-handed, though we should not get ahead of ourselves. Jerome Powell could again take a conservative stance and refrain from giving any forecasts on further monetary easing, which would undoubtedly disappoint bulls, who are already counting on three rate cuts by the end of the year.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its rise after consolidating above the 1.3378–1.3435 zone. Growth may continue toward the next corrective Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3795. The CCI indicator shows signs of a bearish divergence, which may coincide with a corrective pullback. At the moment, the hourly chart provides more clarity.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders did not change over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 1,213, while the number of short positions fell by 748. The current spread between longs and shorts is about 75,000 versus 109,000. Still, the pound leans toward growth, and traders toward buying.

In my view, the pound still faces potential for a decline. The news background during the first six months of the year was disastrous for the U.S. dollar but is slowly beginning to stabilize. Trade tensions are easing, key deals are being signed, and the U.S. economy will likely recover in Q2 thanks to tariffs and various investments. At the same time, expectations of Fed monetary easing in the second half of the year are already creating strong pressure on the dollar, with the U.S. labor market weakening and unemployment rising. Therefore, I currently see no grounds for a "dollar trend."

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

• UK – Consumer Price Index (06:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Building Permits (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Housing Starts (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC Interest Rate Decision (18:00 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC Economic Projections (18:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Fed Press Conference (18:30 UTC).

September 17 brings six events in the economic calendar. The news background will influence market sentiment on Wednesday, with special attention on the evening FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling opportunities may appear today if the pair rebounds from 1.3708 on the hourly chart, targeting the 1.3611–1.3620 zone. Buying was possible on the close above 1.3611–1.3620 with a target at 1.3708. These trades can still be held open today with Stop Loss moved to breakeven.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3586–1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 17/09/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USDX and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Expect from the Fed Today and How to Act

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Today, Federal Reserve officials are expected to support the weakening U.S. labor market by cutting interest rates. This would mark a shift after months of holding back due to concerns about tariff-driven inflation.

Economists and analysts are watching the decision closely, as it could significantly affect the trajectory of the U.S. economy. A rate cut is expected to stimulate borrowing and investment, potentially leading to higher employment and stronger growth.

However, some experts are concerned about the potential long-term consequences of such a move. They argue that a return to lower interest rates could inflate asset bubbles and increase financial instability. Moreover, they warn that the cut might prove ineffective if businesses and consumers remain hesitant to borrow and spend amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

The policy shift comes under unrelenting pressure from President Donald Trump, who this week pushed for a larger cut. The political drama has also raised uncertainty about who would even participate in this week's policy meeting, although the lineup was likely finalized Monday evening when the Senate confirmed a new Fed governor.

Beyond the political intrigue, investors will focus on Chair Jerome Powell's remarks and the updated economic projections for insights into the likely path of interest rates in the coming months. Particular attention will be paid to the so-called dot plot — the chart showing individual forecasts of FOMC members regarding future rates. Significant divergences in these projections could highlight divisions within the Fed and add uncertainty to the markets.

Investors will also study the Fed's updated forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment. Any major changes in these projections could strongly influence market expectations and investor behavior.

"Each cut will be more difficult than the last, unless the labor market shows further signs of deterioration," Bank of America analysts noted.

As mentioned earlier, Fed watchers see potential divisions over the expected quarter-point cut. Some officials may push for a deeper reduction, while others may prefer to keep rates unchanged. Ultimately, the debate centers on which concern outweighs the other: a labor market on the brink of sharp deterioration or accelerating inflation driven by tariffs.

Either way, if we don't see significant changes in policymakers' forecasts and today's cut is already priced in, the dollar could strengthen in the short term. But if most committee members adopt a more dovish outlook for the future—or worse, decide on a half-point cut—the dollar will likely fall against risk assets, including the euro and the British pound.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD: Buyers now need to take control of the 1.1875 level. Only then can they aim for a test of 1.1910. From there, the pair could move toward 1.1940, though achieving this without support from large players will be difficult. The ultimate target lies at the 1.1985 high. On the other hand, meaningful buying interest is expected only around 1.1835. If absent there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of 1.1790 or open long positions from 1.1750.

Technical Outlook for GBP/USD: Pound buyers need to break through nearby resistance at 1.3665. This would open the way toward 1.3710, above which further gains will be challenging. The furthest target is around 1.3745. If the pair declines, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3625. A break below this range would deal a serious blow to bulls and push GBP/USD toward 1.3590, with the potential to extend losses to 1.3550.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Indicator Analysis on September 17, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3642 (yesterday's daily close), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.3626 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue moving upward toward 1.3682 — the 161.8% target level (red dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – downward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

General conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: On Wednesday, from the level of 1.3642 (yesterday's daily close), the market may continue moving upward toward 1.3682 — the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, a pullback downward toward 1.3624 — a historical support level (blue dashed line) is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Indicator Analysis on September 17, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday, from the level of 1.1866 (yesterday's daily close), the market may start moving downward toward 1.1828 — a historical support level (blue dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1881 — the resistance line (thick blue line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• Volumes – upward;
• Candlestick analysis – downward;
• Trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• Weekly chart – upward.

General conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.1866 (yesterday's daily close), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1907 — the 208% target level (red dashed line). Upon testing this level, the price may roll back downward toward 1.1881 — the 185.4% target level (red dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Oracle in the spotlight, the Fed at the center of expectations, and consumers at the center of the story

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Wall Street Ends in the Red

U.S. stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, with the three major Wall Street indexes finishing the session in decline. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated interest rate decision.

Rate Cut Expectations

Most market participants continue to bet that the Fed will trim its key rate by 25 basis points. The move is seen as a response to mounting signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by a series of recent economic reports.

Political Moves Overlooked

Political developments failed to shift market sentiment. The Senate confirmed White House economic adviser Steven Miran to the Federal Reserve Board, while an appeals court rejected former President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Both events were largely ignored by traders.

Retail Sales and Market Volatility

Government data showed that U.S. retail sales in August rose more strongly than economists had forecast. Still, the upbeat consumer spending numbers did little to shake expectations of a rate cut. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index climbed to 16.04, its highest level in more than a week.

Pressure from Market Giants

Blue-chip stocks weighed on the indexes. Shares of UnitedHealth Group dropped 2.3 percent, while Nvidia slid 1.6 percent. The latter decline followed analyst reports pointing to weaker-than-expected demand in China for Nvidia's latest AI chip.

U.S. Indexes Break Records

On Monday, Wall Street once again set fresh milestones. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs, extending their streak of intraday records across several sessions. Despite September's reputation as a tough month for equities, all three major indexes have posted solid gains since the beginning of the year.

Webtoon Soars on Disney Partnership

Shares of Webtoon Entertainment surged nearly 39 percent after the company struck a deal with Disney. The collaboration involves launching a digital comics platform featuring content from Disney's vast portfolio, including the Marvel universe and Star Wars.

Oracle Gains on TikTok News

Oracle stock advanced 1.5 percent after Donald Trump announced that the United States and China had reached an agreement allowing TikTok to remain operational in the U.S. Market enthusiasm was further boosted by reports that Oracle is part of an investor consortium backing the arrangement.

European Markets Regain Ground

In Europe, stocks opened slightly higher on Wednesday, recovering from losses in the previous session. By early morning GMT, the STOXX 600 index was up 0.1 percent at 551.56 points, with tech companies leading the way.

Tech Sector Leads the Rally

SAP and Prosus were among the strongest performers, each rising about 2 percent, reinforcing the rebound of the broader technology sector.

Focus on the Federal Reserve

Global investors are now turning their attention to the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. The outcome of the Fed's deliberations is expected to play a decisive role in shaping market sentiment.

PostNL Jumps on Strategic Shift

Shares of PostNL surged by more than seven percent after the company unveiled its new roadmap during Capital Markets Day. Starting in January 2026, the parcel delivery division will be split into two separate businesses, one focused on e-commerce and the other on platform services.

Novo Nordisk Upgraded

Pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk saw its stock rise nearly two percent. The advance came after brokerage firm Berenberg upgraded its rating on the Danish drugmaker from Hold to Buy, boosting investor confidence in the company's prospects.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock Market on September 17: S&P 500 and Nasdaq return to earth

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US equity indices closed lower yesterday, with the S&P 500 down 0.13% and the Nasdaq 100 slipping 0.07%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.27%.

Futures on major indices are fluctuating between minor gains and losses ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, as investors speculate that the central bank may lower rates for the first time this year.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, many traders are taking a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals on the central bank's next steps. The market appears to be holding its breath, bracing for a potential catalyst that could trigger a sharp move up or a significant downturn in the major indices. In addition, geopolitical factors are increasingly shaping the outlook for financial markets. Any signs of instability, whether from escalating conflicts or new trade restrictions, could push investors into safer assets, which would inevitably impact stocks and other risk-sensitive instruments.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased early losses to finish unchanged. Chinese indices jumped to a four-year high, buoyed by optimism over artificial intelligence demand. Baidu Inc. shares surged 18% after an analyst rating upgrade. US equity futures were little changed, while European contracts moved higher.

The dollar held steady after two days of declines that brought it close to levels last seen in March 2022. Gold remains near record highs after climbing above $3,700 an ounce for the first time.

As mentioned above, investor focus is firmly on the Fed, where they will be searching for clues about the rate outlook that could shape the path forward. Some bond traders have increased their bets that the central bank will cut rates by at least half a percentage point over the three remaining monetary policy meetings this year.

Japanese government bonds advanced after a 20-year debt sale saw the strongest demand since 2020, as investors were drawn in by higher yields despite ongoing political uncertainty.

Meanwhile, money markets have fully priced a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut, along with additional easing in the coming year. If the Fed fails to deliver clear signals about further rate cuts, it would be a discouraging sign for equity bulls who are counting on a gradual shift toward looser policy.

In commodities, oil prices stabilized after three days of gains as traders assessed the implications of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

From a technical perspective, the immediate task for S&P 500 buyers today is to overcome nearby resistance at $6,616. That would set the stage for a push to $6,627. Securing a hold above $6,638 remains a key objective for the bulls. On the downside, buyers will need to defend the $6,603 area in the event of weaker risk appetite. A move below this level would quickly drag the index back to $6,590 and potentially open the way to $6,577.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.