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EUR/USD Analysis on December 10, 2025

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The wave pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour chart has transformed, but overall remains quite clear. There is no indication that the upward trend segment, which began in January 2025, has been canceled, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken on a more extended form. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of corrective wave 4, which took a very unconventional shape. Within this wave, we see exclusively corrective structures, so there is no doubt about the corrective nature of the decline.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets stretch as far as the 1.25 level. The a-b-c-d-e wave sequence looks complete; therefore, I expect a new bullish wave set to form in the coming weeks. We have seen the expected waves 1 and 2, and the instrument is now forming wave 3 or c. I expect the instrument to rise toward 1.1717 within this wave, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. However, formally, the third wave may be considered complete at any moment, as it has already exceeded the peak of wave 1.

The EUR/USD exchange rate once again barely changed on Wednesday. The day before, the euro fell slightly during the U.S. session, although it would be more accurate to say "the dollar strengthened slightly." Were there reasons for this, and how should we view dollar strength ahead of the FOMC meeting? Yesterday, two U.S. reports were released that, at first glance, deserved some attention: the ADP employment change report and the JOLTS job openings report. Let's break them down.

The ADP report has recently been released in a new format. Previously, it showed the monthly change in employment, but now it reports the average weekly change over the last four weeks. Frankly, I don't understand why the new format was introduced, how it is better than the old one, or why it is needed at all if the traditional monthly reports are still being published. But these are rhetorical questions — and the market responded brilliantly yesterday, showing exactly what it thinks of such innovations: it doesn't care.

The second report — JOLTS — covered September and October. On December 10. Hardly anyone took this report seriously from the start, since the data was already outdated. Moreover, the JOLTS report itself is only an indirect indicator of labor market conditions. What does it show? The number of job openings. There could be 10 million or even 20 million open positions — but if hiring is not happening, what is the point? Market participants and the Fed are interested in how many Americans are actually employed at the moment (and therefore paying taxes). Only the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate can answer that question. Therefore, demand for the U.S. dollar rose slightly yesterday, but overall the dollar strengthened slightly on Monday as well, and also last Friday.

General conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend segment. Over the past few months the market has taken a pause, but the policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve remain strong factors that may weaken the U.S. currency in the future. The targets of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. However, the latest upward segment once again took on a corrective shape, which means at minimum a downward wave within this segment could begin now, and at maximum — a new downward corrective wave set.

On the lower time frame, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not the most standard, since the corrective waves differ in size. For example, the higher-degree wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 of wave 3. But this happens. I remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on the chart rather than trying to label every wave. Right now, the bullish structure is not in doubt.

The main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If you are not confident in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about market direction. Do not forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the AUD/USD pair continues its consolidation near December highs as markets await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to announce its decision during the North American session today, and most analysts anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut. This expectation has been one of the key factors behind the recent weakening of the U.S. dollar to its lowest levels since late October and the notable rise in AUD/USD observed over the past two weeks.

However, market participants prefer to refrain from aggressive buying and are waiting for additional signals regarding the Fed's future policy path. Key attention will be focused on updated economic projections and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference after the meeting. These data points will be crucial in shaping the short-term trend of the U.S. dollar and the direction of the AUD/USD pair. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance continues to support the Australian dollar, positively influencing the currency pair.

As expected, on Tuesday the RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that the board discussed the possibility of raising rates and concluded that further cuts are not necessary at this time. This suggests continued strengthening of the Australian dollar, which held steady despite mixed inflation data from China: while consumer prices rose in November, producer prices declined.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.7% year-on-year last month, compared to 0.2% in October. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 2.2% year-on-year versus a 2.1% decline the previous month. Despite these figures, the fundamental backdrop favors a stronger Australian dollar, suggesting that the short-term trend in AUD/USD remains upward.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is consolidating near December highs as it attempts to break above 0.6650. Above this level, the next resistance is at 0.6660, on the way toward the psychological 0.6700 level. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, but it is worth noting that the Relative Strength Index is nearing overbought territory.

Nevertheless, a breakout above 0.6650, or the multi-month high, would create conditions for further upside and potentially push the pair toward the yearly high. On the other hand, immediate support lies at 0.6620, followed by 0.6610, ahead of the key 0.6600 level.

The table below shows the percentage changes of the Australian dollar against major currencies for the current month. The most notable rise was registered against the Swiss franc.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for trading the Japanese yen

The price test of 156.63 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the dollar. However, the trade resulted in a loss, as the pair never moved downward.

In the afternoon, market attention will be focused on the results of the FOMC meeting, where a decision to cut the key interest rate is expected. Since markets have already priced in the likelihood of a rate cut, the main interest lies in Powell's tone and his comments on future monetary policy. A key moment will be Powell's assessment of economic conditions and inflation forecasts. If he expresses concern about slowing economic growth or notes that inflation is moving toward the target level, this may reinforce market expectations of further rate cuts. Otherwise, if Powell emphasizes economic resilience and signs of rising inflationary pressure, this could strengthen the U.S. dollar and push the Japanese yen lower.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 156.92 (green line on the chart), with the target at 157.78 (the thicker green line). Around 157.78, I will exit buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35-point move in the opposite direction). A rise in the pair can be expected only after a hawkish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of 156.63 at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward the opposite levels of 156.92 and 157.78.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 156.63 (red line on the chart), which should lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 155.77, where I will exit sell positions and also immediately open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25-point move upward). Pressure on the pair will return only if the Fed adopts a dovish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.92 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward 156.63 and 155.77.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – proposed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; above this level, further growth is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – proposed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; below this level, further decline is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders must make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for the British pound

The price test of 1.3316 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pound's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy.

The absence of important fundamental statistics from the UK provided only slight support to buyers of the British pound. Amid the overall uncertainty related to the Federal Reserve's next steps, a short break from negative news allowed investors to focus on technical factors and recover part of the previously lost positions. However, it is worth noting that this growth is most likely corrective in nature and does not indicate a continuation of the upward trend in the pair.

In the second half of the day, the FOMC decision on the main interest rate is expected, which will almost certainly be lowered, followed by Jerome Powell's press conference. Markets have already priced in a rate cut, so the key point will be Powell's rhetoric and hints about future policy. Investors will closely monitor any signals regarding the Fed's next steps, trying to determine whether this rate cut will be the last or whether it marks a continuation of the dovish monetary policy cycle that will extend into next year. Special attention will be paid to Powell's assessment of the current labor market conditions and inflation outlook. If he expresses concern or indicates that inflation remains above the target level, this may push markets toward expecting a more restrictive policy, which would support the U.S. dollar. Overall, today's FOMC meeting and Powell's press conference promise to be eventful and could bring significant volatility to financial markets.

As for intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today once the price reaches the entry point around 1.3318 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3374 (the thicker green line). Around 1.3374, I will exit buy positions and open sell trades in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction). A rise in the pound today can be expected only if the Fed adopts a dovish stance. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3295 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3318 and 1.3374.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below the 1.3295 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3236 level, where I will exit sell positions and also open buy trades in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from the level). Pressure on the pound may return today if the Fed takes a hawkish stance. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3318 price level at a time when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.3295 and 1.3236.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; above this level, further growth is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; below this level, further decline is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan—like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10th (U.S. Session)

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Trade analysis and recommendations for the euro

The price test of 1.1645 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The unexpected decline in industrial production in Italy has heightened concerns about the state of the eurozone economy. This alarming signal, following a series of mixed economic indicators, casts doubt on the prospects for a steady recovery of the region's manufacturing sector. The weakening of the euro triggered by the Italian data reflects increased risk aversion in financial markets.

But this afternoon, the key event will be the publication of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee's decision on the key interest rate. There is virtually no doubt that it will be lowered. Immediately afterward, a press conference by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will take place. The expected rate cut, initiated by FOMC, is viewed as a measure supporting the labor market. However, further rate cuts carry certain risks — including renewed inflation growth, which remains a concern within the Fed. For this reason, Jerome Powell's speech will be of particular interest, as he will likely explain the motives behind the FOMC decision and share his outlook on future monetary policy. Market participants will be carefully analyzing his statements, trying to anticipate the regulator's next steps.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today you can buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1645 (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 1.1720. At 1.1720, I plan to exit the market and also open a sell position in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. A stronger rise in the euro may occur after a dovish stance from the Fed. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1626 price level at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1720.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1626 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1570, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point retracement upward). Pressure on the pair will return today if the Fed takes a hawkish stance on future rate decisions. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1645 price level at a time when the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline can be expected toward the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1570.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; above this level, further growth is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – assumed price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit; below this level, further decline is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with great caution. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you ignore money management principles and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan — like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are, by default, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

When gold bubble to burst?

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The bubble in the gold market was discussed at the end of October when XAU/USD prices plummeted off a cliff after reaching a record high. This conversation is still going on. The Bank for International Settlements warns investors not to get carried away with buying the precious metal, which increasingly resembles a risky asset.

Since the beginning of 2025, the S&P 500 has set 20 record highs, while gold has achieved 50. According to the BIS, for the first time in 50 years, a situation has emerged where both stock indices and the precious metal are in a bubble. The first sign is the activity of retail investors. Typically, FOMO, or the fear of missing out, manifests itself towards risky assets, but this year it has spread to XAU/USD as well.

Retail investors or the crowd have joined the gold rally and provided it with new momentum. Retail investors often act differently from institutional players. Large investors withdraw money from the stock market and are neutral towards precious metals. Meanwhile, smaller players are buying up anything they can, expecting the continuation of monetary expansion cycles and the associated cheap liquidity. However, it's not guaranteed that this will actually happen.

Dynamics of central bank rate expectations

Just a week ago, the futures market was confident that the Federal Reserve will cut the key interest rate to 3% in 2026. Now, there are doubts about two acts of monetary expansion by the Fed next year. Derivatives from Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Sweden even expect tightening of monetary policy. "Hawkish" turns could lead to a weakening of the US dollar against major world currencies. However, Treasury yields are unlikely to fall significantly due to events unfolding in the global economy. Gold will lose important support and risks dropping below $4,000 per ounce if the Federal Reserve takes into account the views of other central banks. This opinion was expressed by Fitch Solutions.

On the contrary, RBC Capital Markets raised its forecasts for the precious metal to $4,600 in 2026 and to $5,100 in 2027, citing geopolitical risks, a persistent budget deficit, and the easing of monetary policy by the US central bank.

Market expectations for the federal funds rate

Heraeus believes the XAU/USD rally will be postponed until the second half of 2026. Since July, high investment demand, concerns over fiscal dominance, and purchases of bullion by central banks will lead to a recovery in the upward trend for gold.

In the short term, its fate will depend on the Fed's verdict and the forecasts of FOMC members regarding the federal funds rate. Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric could put the bulls in XAU/USD in their place.

Technically, on the daily chart, gold is experiencing short-term consolidation in the range of $4,165–4,265 per ounce. Only a breakout from this range will allow the precious metal to determine its further direction—upward or downward. In this situation, it makes sense to set pending orders to buy from $4,265 and sell from $4,165.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trump's national security strategy overlooks cryptocurrencies and blockchain

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Bitcoin has failed to return to its weekly peak around $94,600, indicating the caution with which buyers currently view the cryptocurrency market. The main reason for this hesitance is the Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be announced this evening.

In the meantime, another disappointing aspect for the market may be Trump's new national security strategy, which does not mention cryptocurrencies or blockchain—despite his previous calls to make the US a global crypto hub. The strategy emphasizes the priority of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies for protecting national interests. It highlights the United States' intention to secure global leadership in the development of technologies and standard-setting in areas such as AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing.

Whether intentional or not, the underestimation of the cryptocurrency and blockchain market may reflect a traditional security approach focused on material threats and geopolitical rivals, while digital assets and decentralized technologies are still perceived as peripheral phenomena. However, ignoring cryptocurrencies and blockchain in the national security strategy could have serious consequences, considering their growing influence on the global economy and financing methods.

Moreover, the strategy's focus on artificial intelligence and quantum technologies underscores the recognition of the importance of technological superiority in ensuring national security. The US pursuit of leadership in these areas is undoubtedly justified, given their potential to transform all aspects of society—from defense to healthcare. However, ignoring cryptocurrencies and blockchain appears shortsighted, given their potential to undermine traditional financial systems—especially when recalling Trump's statements during his campaign and his promises to create a global crypto hub in the US.

Trading recommendations

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,900 level, which opens a direct path to $95,000 and further to $97,300. The furthest target will be the peak around $99,400, with a breakthrough at this level indicating attempts to return to a bull market. If Bitcoin falls, I expect buyers at the $90,300 level. A move below this area could quickly drag BTC down to around $88,200, with the furthest target being the $85,800 region.

As for Ethereum's technical picture, a clear consolidation above the $3,362 level opens a direct road to $3,474. The ultimate target will be the peak around $3,664, with a breakthrough indicating strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum falls, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A retreat below this area could swiftly push ETH down to around $3,126, with the furthest target being the $3,023 region.

What's on the chart

• Red lines represent support and resistance levels, where price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 10/12/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USDX, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on December 10, 2025

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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656 and showed a slight decline. As of Wednesday morning, the quotes once again returned to this zone. A fresh rebound from it will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the support level of 1.1594–1.1607. A consolidation of the pair above this zone will increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 38.2% at 1.1718.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the last upward wave (still forming) broke the previous high. Thus, the trend has officially shifted to bullish. It is still difficult to call it a strong trend, but in recent months the bulls have demonstrated only one thing — their weakness. The Fed's monetary easing should give them additional strength, as the ECB does not intend to lower interest rates in the near future.

On Tuesday, traders might have expected more active movements in the pair, but their hopes were once again dashed. Despite a fairly attractive news background, EUR/USD again did not consider it necessary to move actively. Market activity recently has been the main problem for traders, as it is extremely low. As a result, movements are weak and chart levels are being poorly tested. Returning to the news background, the U.S. released the JOLTS and ADP reports. While the ADP report can be overlooked, the JOLTS report showed higher values than expected. Bears reacted to this report and the dollar rose slightly, but it provided no real benefit, since today the pair has already returned back to the 1.1645–1.1656 level. It is worth recalling that the FOMC meeting will take place in the evening, and the market may already be pricing it in. A decision to ease monetary policy is beyond doubt; all that remains is to wait for official confirmation.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680. A rebound from this zone will again work in favor of the U.S. dollar and lead to a decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation above the resistance zone of 1.1649–1.1680 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next corrective level of 0.0% at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. The bullish trend has every chance of resuming.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the last reporting week, professional traders opened 5,893 long positions and 10,312 short positions. COT reports have resumed after the shutdown, but for now only outdated data is being published — for October. Sentiment in the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 250,000, while the number of short positions is 143,000.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players were reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they may create numerous problems that could have long-term and structural consequences for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, analysts fear a recession in the U.S. economy, as well as a loss of Fed independence under Trump's pressure and in light of Jerome Powell's resignation scheduled for May next year.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone — Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (07:00 UTC).
• U.S. — FOMC monetary policy decision (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. — FOMC economic projections (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. — Jerome Powell's press conference (19:30 UTC).

The economic events calendar for December 10 contains four entries, three of which have "mega-important" status. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday evening may be very strong.

EUR/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Short positions in the pair are possible today upon a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1594–1.1607. Long positions may be opened with a target of 1.1718 if the pair closes above the 1.1645–1.1656 level.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on December 10, 2025

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Tuesday bounced off the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362, above which it failed to close after three attempts. By Wednesday evening, the pair fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3294, and the rebound from this level this morning worked in favor of the pound and initiated growth toward 1.3352–1.3362. A consolidation of the pound's quotes above this zone today is highly likely, which will allow traders to expect growth toward the 1.3425 level.

The wave structure has shifted into a "bullish" configuration. The last completed upward wave broke the previous high, while the last downward wave failed to break the previous low. Thus, at this time the trend remains bullish. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully priced it in, and the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired. It is difficult for the bulls to continue their attacks, but their position is now better than that of the bears. The "bullish" trend can be considered complete only below the 1.3186 level.

On Tuesday, the information background did not inspire most traders to be active, although in my opinion the JOLTS reports for September and October deserved attention. However, the market interpreted them as dollar-buying signals — but even that did not help the dollar. Its growth in recent days has been minimal, and today the U.S. currency risks losing quite a lot over the course of the day. In the evening, the final FOMC meeting of the year will be held, and I believe there will be no intrigue this time. The FOMC will decide to ease monetary policy, as it effectively has no other options. Most likely, Jerome Powell will take a dovish stance, and the dot-plot charts will show strengthened dovish sentiment within the Committee for 2026–2027. The changes compared with the previous version of the chart may be modest, but even that should be enough for the U.S. dollar to resume its decline.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the descending trend channel, above the 1.3118–1.3140 level, and rose toward the 1.3339 level. A rebound from this level will work in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.3140. A consolidation of the pair above 1.3339 will allow expectations of further growth toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became less bullish over the latest reporting week, but this reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 28. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,052, while short positions increased by 10,539. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 82,000 vs. 102,000. However, these figures reflect the situation in mid-October. The picture may now be very different.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency enjoys some demand on the market, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Therefore, while the Bank of England may lower rates one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar significantly weakened over the course of 2025, and 2026 may be no better.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – FOMC monetary policy decision (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC economic projections (19:00 UTC).
• U.S. – Jerome Powell's press conference (19:30 UTC).

The economic calendar for December 10 includes three mega-important entries. The influence of the news background on market sentiment Wednesday evening will be very strong.

GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Short positions in the pair could be opened on a rebound from the resistance level of 1.3352–1.3362 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3294. This target has been reached. Long positions can be opened on a rebound from 1.3294 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3352–1.3362. These trades can be kept open today. A close above this zone will allow holding positions with a target of 1.3425.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Today the U.S. Fed will cut interest rates for the third time in a row

.The U.S. dollar remains under pressure amid expectations that representatives of the Federal Reserve of the United States will today carry out their third consecutive interest-rate cut. However, many economists believe that the Fed may go into a wait-and-see mode after this cut — something that will be announced at the press conference following the meeting. Concerns over persistent inflation have led to a deep split within the central bank, which will likely prevent the Fed Chair Jerome Powell from announcing any further steps at the beginning of next year.

Such a turn of events may have a serious impact on the dollar exchange rate. Lowering interest rates usually weakens a currency — because it makes assets denominated in that currency less attractive to investors. However, if the Fed truly shifts to a more cautious stance, that could stabilize the dollar or even lead to its strengthening.

At the same time, the split inside the Fed over inflation and the labor market is adding uncertainty to the currency market. If some members of the Federal Open Market Committee continue to insist on a stricter policy, that could put pressure on Powell and limit his ability to ease further. That, in turn, could lead to unpredictable swings in the dollar in the short term. Therefore, traders should pay close attention to Powell's statements at the press conference to get a sense of the Fed's future plans. It is important to watch how he assesses the current inflation situation and which signals he gives regarding future monetary policy.

After two rate cuts this autumn and a total of 1.5 percentage points over the past 15 months, each further cut brings the Fed's base rate closer to a level that might stimulate economic activity — something many officials are trying to avoid. Several policymakers believe they have already reached a neutral rate, which neither stimulates nor restricts growth. Opposing opinions about how restrictive the Fed's rates actually are will likely lead to yet another division of views.

Powell's task of reaching a consensus will be even more difficult in the absence of new economic data — a consequence of the government shutdown that lasted all of October and much of November. Official labor-market data for November will be published only on December 16, and inflation data two days later. That leaves the Fed in a position where it has to balance on a fine line.

As for the current technical picture for EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about capturing the 1.1650 level. Only that will allow targeting a test of 1.1680. From there, one could climb toward 1.1705 — but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The furthest target will be the 1.1725 high. In case the instrument falls only to around 1.1620, I expect some serious action from major buyers. If no one comes there, it might be wise to wait for a new low around 1.1590 or to open long positions starting from 1.1570.

As for the current technical picture for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to capture the nearest resistance at 1.3320. Only that will allow targeting 1.3350 — above which it will be quite difficult to break out. The most distant target will be around 1.3380. In case of a drop, bears will try to take control over 1.3285. If they succeed, a breakdown of the range would deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward a minimum of 1.3260 with a prospect of moving to 1.3230.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/US. Technical Analysis on December 10, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may possibly begin moving upward toward 1.3367 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3355 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 9, 2025).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• volumes – upward;
• candlestick analysis – upward;
• trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: an upward trend.

Alternative scenario: On Wednesday the market, from the 1.3293 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may possibly begin moving upward toward 1.3355 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 9, 2025). When testing this level, the price may pull back downward toward 1.3345 – the upper fractal (daily candle of December 8, 2025).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on December 10, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Wednesday the market, from the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), may start moving upward toward 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – upward;
• Fibonacci levels – upward;
• volumes – downward;
• candlestick analysis – upward;
• trend analysis – upward;
• Bollinger Bands – upward;
• weekly chart – upward.

Overall conclusion: an upward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the 1.1625 level (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin an upward movement toward 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, the price may possibly pull back downward toward 1.1608 – the historical support level (light blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market awaits Fed meeting

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When markets are set for a hawkish cut, the chances of a dovish surprise increase. In reality, a reduction in the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% is not the most important event on December 10. What will be more interesting for the markets is to observe the updated FOMC economic projections and listen to Jerome Powell's speech. Ahead of the meeting, investors preferred to take a step back. No one wants to take risks.

Despite the tepid response of the S&P 500 to several previous Committee meetings, this time could be different. Artificial intelligence, corporate profits, the resilience of the US economy, and expectations for monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve are four key drivers of the American stock market in 2025. If even one of these factors plays out, the broad stock index may not be able to boast the impressive results in the coming year that it has achieved this year.

S&P 500's Reaction to Fed Meeting Outcomes

It is no surprise that institutional investors surveyed by Goldman Sachs are lowering their forecasts. Their estimates for the S&P 500 in 2026 fluctuate between 7,000 and 7,500. Just in October, when the broad stock index was nearing record highs, respondents believed in its rise to 7,200 by the end of 2025. According to HSBC Holdings, investors are underestimating the risks of a collapse in the US stock market.

A key part of the puzzle about the future of the S&P 500 is monetary policy. If the Fed accelerates the process of interest rate cuts, as desired by the White House, the broad stock index will thrive. However, there is a chance that the Federal Reserve will take into account the desire of central banks in other developed countries to make a hawkish turn. Australia, New Zealand, Europe, and likely Canada have signaled or are ready to signal the end of monetary expansion cycles. The Bank of Japan, in fact, intends to raise the overnight rate.

Dynamics of S&P 500 and Market Expectations for Fed Rates

The Fed is traditionally viewed as the leader of the pack of central banks, yet there is such desynchronization! Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is highly responsive to signals from the futures market regarding the scale of monetary policy easing. The decline in the broad stock index from record high levels was partly due to the October FOMC meeting minutes, where many Committee officials expressed disagreement with lowering the federal funds rate.

Another reason for the autumn pullback was fears regarding an AI bubble. Now, whenever investors hear the word "spending," they begin to sell. For instance, JP Morgan's shares were adversely affected after the company announced an increase in expenses in 2026 to $105 billion compared to a previous estimate of $101 billion.

Technically, on the daily chart of the S&P 500, the battle between bulls and bears continues for fair value at 6,840. A victory for sellers and a subsequent fall below 6,827 will trigger short-term selling. However, buying on rebounds from 6,805 and 6,770 remains a viable strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Euro Looks Strong Ahead of FOMC Meeting

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The eurozone economy continues to demonstrate robust growth despite several challenges. The composite PMI index rose in October from 52.4 to 52.8, primarily due to a significant increase in the services sector, which reached a one-and-a-half-year high of 53.6.

At the same time, the final GDP data for the third quarter showed a 0.3% decline in household consumption, which is good for controlling inflation but poor for economic growth. While overall inflation increased in November, it remained close to the European Central Bank target, and core inflation stabilized at 2.4%, indicating a lack of inflationary momentum. As a result, there is no reason to revise the ECB's rate forecasts, which suggest the end of the easing cycle. This is a moderately hawkish factor for the euro. Additionally, the unexpected rise in average wages in the third quarter from 3.8% to 4.0% year-on-year, against a forecast reduction to 3.2%, makes a rate cut even less likely as it potentially poses a threat of inflation growth in December.

The euro has no reason to decline until there is clarity on what is actually happening with the US economy and how the composition of the FOMC members may change in the coming months. The threat of a quicker rate cut in the US prevents dollar bulls from resuming pressure, which is another factor supporting the euro's growth.

Regarding the US, the main event for the markets will undoubtedly be the FOMC meeting on monetary policy, along with the publication of new forecasts. Yesterday's JOLTs report on job openings for October provided insights into the labor market, appearing positive externally – 7.670 million, against a forecast of 7.2 million - indicating sustained labor demand. At the same time, the number of voluntary resignations and hiring decreased, while the number of involuntary layoffs increased. For the Federal Reserve, this signal may allow Powell to maintain at least a neutral tone at today's press conference, hinting that the pause before the next rate cut may be longer than the market expects. On the other hand, Trump's pressure on the Fed remains strong.

CFTC reports continue to be delayed and will only fully come into the schedule on January 23. So far, reports from November 4 have been published, when the markets were confident that the Fed would not cut rates at today's meeting. Therefore, speculative positioning on the dollar, which dominated in the first half of November, significantly distorts the calculated price at this time. Nevertheless, the calculated price remains above the long-term average with the prospect of further growth.

Last week, we saw continued growth of EUR/USD as the main scenario. Based on the criteria, this scenario still appears to be the most likely. The target of 1.1650/70 was reached, but there was no successful settlement above this zone, although the pullback was shallow. We anticipate that following the publication of the FOMC meeting results, the euro will rise. Much will depend on the tone Powell selects during the press conference; if he is perceived as dovish, the Fed's rate forecasts may be adjusted towards an even quicker cut, pushing the euro above 1.1730 with the prospect of rapid growth. Conversely, if Powell chooses a neutral tone, the growth will be less pronounced, and we see the euro in the range of 1.1690/1730.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market overview for December 10: SP500 and NASDAQ close mixed

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At the end of yesterday's trading session, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.09%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.13%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.38%.

Asian stock indices showed a mixed performance as investors await further guidance regarding the Federal Reserve's position in its final interest rate decision of the year. Shares of Chinese real estate companies rose amid optimism about potential government support. US equity futures remained virtually unchanged. Silver continued its upward trajectory, while Australian bonds saw increased selling pressure following a hawkish central bank decision on Tuesday. The price of US Treasury bonds remained stable after a decline on Tuesday when data revealed that job openings in the US reached their highest level in five months in October.

Today, traders are anticipating a third consecutive interest rate cut from the Fed, with a particular focus on the central bank's latest dot plot, economic forecasts, and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. Volatility surrounding this decision has become a defining characteristic of stock trading recently, overshadowing concerns about a potential artificial intelligence bubble and the impact of trade policies from former President Donald Trump.

Market participants are closely monitoring how the Fed will balance the need to curb inflation while avoiding a slowdown in economic growth. On one hand, persistent inflation, although decreasing, still remains above the Fed's target level of 2%, indicating the necessity for continued restrictive monetary policy. On the other hand, the economy is showing signs of slowdown, and a further pause in accommodative policy could exacerbate the situation, potentially leading to a recession. The dot plot, which graphically represents the forecasts of individual members of the Fed's Open Market Committee regarding the future trajectory of interest rates, will be crucial in shaping market sentiment. If the plot indicates a more aggressive stance than expected, it could trigger a sell-off in stocks and an increase in bond yields. Conversely, if the dot plot suggests that the Fed is leaning towards a more dovish policy, it could spark a stock market rally.

As previously noted, shares of Chinese real estate companies surged on Wednesday amid expectations of stimulus measures from Beijing and hopes for progress in debt negotiations involving China Vanke Co. The index of Chinese property developers jumped by more than 4%, while Vanke shares, which have garnered investor attention due to delayed bond payments, soared by 19%.

Silver continued its rise after surpassing $60 per ounce for the first time on Tuesday. The momentum was fueled by supply shortages and forecasts of further easing in Fed monetary policy. The price of the white metal climbed by 1.6% to a record high of $61.6145 per ounce.

Oil experienced its largest two-day decline in a month, as concerns over a global oversupply continued to weigh on sentiment.

Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the primary objective for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance at $6,854. Doing so would help indicate growth and open up the opportunity for a surge to a new level at $6,874. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over $6,896, which would strengthen their positions. Should there be a downward movement due to a decrease in risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,837. A breakdown could quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,819 and pave the way towards $6,792.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US banking regulator allows banks to engage in cryptocurrency transactions

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Bitcoin experienced a notable increase yesterday, along with other altcoins, following the news that the US banking regulator, the OCC, officially permitted national banks to conduct cryptocurrency operations for clients.

Now, banks can operate under a riskless principal model, acting as intermediaries in transactions without holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. This decision marks the beginning of a new era for the interaction between traditional finance and digital assets.

For the first time, federally chartered banks are receiving a clear signal to legally provide cryptocurrency-related services. This is not merely an experiment. It is a strategic step aimed at integrating the crypto economy into the existing financial system. This move could significantly accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies among the general public, as trust in traditional banks remains high.

The OCC's approval creates a competitive environment where banks can offer their clients access to cryptocurrencies without the need to interact directly with cryptocurrency exchanges or custodial services. This reduces barriers to entry into the digital asset market and enhances security for users. By acting as intermediaries, banks take on the responsibility of ensuring regulatory compliance and protecting customer interests.

Importantly, the OCC emphasizes the need to adhere to safety principles and risk management when conducting cryptocurrency operations. Banks must develop clear procedures and control systems to prevent money laundering, terrorism financing, and other illicit activities. This requires significant investments in infrastructure development and staff training.

The OCC's decision also serves as a crucial signal for the crypto industry as a whole. It confirms that regulatory authorities are willing to engage with innovative technologies and establish a legal framework for their development. This could attract new investments and stimulate the development of new blockchain-based products and services.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,900 level, which would open a direct path to $95,000, from where it would not be long before reaching $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the $99,400 peak, and a breakthrough above this level would indicate attempts to re-enter a bullish market. If Bitcoin declines, I expect buyers at the $90,300 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,200, with the furthest target being the area of $85,800.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,362 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate goal will be around the $3,664 peak, and surpassing this level would strengthen bullish market sentiments and renew buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could quickly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the furthest target being $3,023.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US banking regulator allows banks to engage in cryptocurrency transactions

.

Bitcoin experienced a notable increase yesterday, along with other altcoins, following the news that the US banking regulator, the OCC, officially permitted national banks to conduct cryptocurrency operations for clients.

Now, banks can operate under a riskless principal model, acting as intermediaries in transactions without holding crypto assets on their balance sheets. This decision marks the beginning of a new era for the interaction between traditional finance and digital assets.

For the first time, federally chartered banks are receiving a clear signal to legally provide cryptocurrency-related services. This is not merely an experiment. It is a strategic step aimed at integrating the crypto economy into the existing financial system. This move could significantly accelerate the adoption of cryptocurrencies among the general public, as trust in traditional banks remains high.

The OCC's approval creates a competitive environment where banks can offer their clients access to cryptocurrencies without the need to interact directly with cryptocurrency exchanges or custodial services. This reduces barriers to entry into the digital asset market and enhances security for users. By acting as intermediaries, banks take on the responsibility of ensuring regulatory compliance and protecting customer interests.

Importantly, the OCC emphasizes the need to adhere to safety principles and risk management when conducting cryptocurrency operations. Banks must develop clear procedures and control systems to prevent money laundering, terrorism financing, and other illicit activities. This requires significant investments in infrastructure development and staff training.

The OCC's decision also serves as a crucial signal for the crypto industry as a whole. It confirms that regulatory authorities are willing to engage with innovative technologies and establish a legal framework for their development. This could attract new investments and stimulate the development of new blockchain-based products and services.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical outlook for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,900 level, which would open a direct path to $95,000, from where it would not be long before reaching $97,300. The ultimate target will be around the $99,400 peak, and a breakthrough above this level would indicate attempts to re-enter a bullish market. If Bitcoin declines, I expect buyers at the $90,300 level. A return of the trading instrument below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $88,200, with the furthest target being the area of $85,800.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,362 level opens a direct path to $3,474. The ultimate goal will be around the $3,664 peak, and surpassing this level would strengthen bullish market sentiments and renew buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, I expect buyers at the $3,233 level. A drop below this area could quickly send ETH down to around $3,126, with the furthest target being $3,023.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.25 price coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator began to move above the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying dollars. As a result, the pair rose by more than 50 pips.

Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs supported the dollar's rise against the Japanese yen yesterday. The resilience of the labor market continues to strengthen the dollar's position, despite the high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut today. The ADP data, reflecting growth in private sector employment, exceeded expectations, signaling sustained business activity and a need for labor. Simultaneously, the JOLTs report, which records the number of job openings, remains at a relatively high level, indicating labor shortages and potential upward pressure on wages.

However, it is important to remember that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates next week, which could quickly change the dynamics of the market, so be extremely cautious with long positions on USD/JPY at current levels.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.92 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 157.25 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 157.25, I intend to exit the longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from this level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.63 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.92 and 157.25.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.63 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be at 156.33, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price at 156.92 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 156.63 and 156.33.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The first test of the price at 1.3323 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly down from the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

Strong US labor market data from ADP and JOLTs helped the dollar rise against the pound yesterday. Economists and analysts note that the resilience of the US labor market, despite recent signs of weakness, provides significant support for the dollar. This, in turn, puts pressure on other countries' currencies, particularly the British pound.

Today, traders have little to anticipate in the first half of the day. The sluggish market ahead of the US FOMC meeting, lacking catalysts, signals a consolidation period in which short-term fluctuations will be driven more by technical factors and speculative sentiment than by a deep analysis of the economic situation. In such conditions, the importance of closely monitoring price charts and using technical analysis tools to identify entry and exit points increases.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3316 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3334 (thicker green line on the chart). At the point of 1.3334, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry level). A strong increase in the pound can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3302 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. You can expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.3316 and 1.3334.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3302 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3285 level, where I intend to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pound sellers will show their strength in the case of weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3316 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3302 and 1.3285.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 10. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1635 coincided with the MACD indicator being significantly below the zero mark, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the euro. The second test of 1.1635 shortly after occurred when the MACD was in the oversold area, allowing for the realization of Scenario 2 for a buy, but it did not lead to a significant increase in the pair.

Strong private-sector employment data from ADP and figures on job openings and labor turnover in the US supported the dollar against the euro in the afternoon. Investors interpreted this data as a signal that the US labor market is not as weak as it might initially seem. However, this data does not provide the whole picture, so it is premature to draw conclusions solely from it. The future dynamics of the dollar will continue to depend on US macroeconomic indicators and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.

Today, in the first half of the day, data on changes in Italy's industrial production and a speech from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are expected. The industrial production data will provide insight into the state of the country's economy. Analysts will closely monitor these figures to determine whether the industry is recovering after recent challenges stemming from US tariffs and high energy prices. Positive data may strengthen the euro. Lagarde's speech will be a particularly important moment of the day. Markets will closely monitor any signals on the ECB's future monetary policy. Investors will want to know how the ECB assesses the current economic situation, inflationary pressures, and interest rate prospects.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on executing Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: Today, I can buy euros upon reaching a price around 1.1645 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to the level of 1.1666. At the 1.1666 level, I plan to exit the market and immediately sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1626 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1645 and 1.1666.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1626 (red line on the chart). The target will be at level 1.1605, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from this level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward movement from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1645 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1626 and 1.1605.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated price where you can set Take Profit or take profit yourself, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions with great caution. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for the intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on December 10

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Bitcoin surpassed the $94,000 mark yesterday, reaching $94,600, marking a peak since its major sell-off in November this year. Ethereum also crossed the $3,300 threshold, maintaining strong prospects for further growth.

Active buying of Ethereum could be linked to news that BlackRock applied to launch an Ethereum ETF with a staking option, which may attract more potential large clients to the market. The integration of the staking option makes the ETF even more appealing to investors seeking not only capital gains but also passive income from their assets. This could lead to significant capital inflows into Ethereum, as institutional investors and large funds who previously refrained from directly holding cryptocurrencies gain a convenient, regulated way to participate in the market.

The growing interest in the Ethereum ETF is also connected to expectations of further development of the Ethereum network. Improvements in scalability allow for processing more transactions and reduce fees, contributing to the continued development of the Ethereum ecosystem – especially following the recent network upgrade.

Regarding the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the medium term, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategies and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching an entry point around $92,800, targeting a rise to $93,900. At around $93,900, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: Buying Bitcoin can also occur from the lower boundary of $92,100 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back towards $92,800 and $93,900.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today when reaching an entry point around $92,100, targeting a drop to $90,900. At around $90,900, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: Selling Bitcoin can also occur from the upper boundary of $92,800 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back towards $92,100 and $90,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching an entry point around $3,336, targeting a rise to $3,383. At around $3,383, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and that the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: Buying Ethereum can also occur from the lower boundary of $3,302 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back towards $3,336 and $3,383.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today when reaching an entry point around $3,302, targeting a drop to $3,244. At around $3,244, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: Selling Ethereum can also occur from the upper boundary of $3,336 if there is no market reaction to breaking it back towards $3,302 and $3,244.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 10

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The US dollar has again strengthened against the euro, pound, and other risk assets – particularly against the Japanese yen. The weekly job growth in the private sector from ADP and strong data on job openings and labor turnover in the US from the Bureau of Labor Statistics have strengthened the US dollar. Traders interpreted this data as a sign of the ongoing strength of the US economy, which, in turn, raised expectations of a more cautious approach to monetary policy changes by the Federal Reserve. However, this is unlikely to impact today's decision by the central bank. For this reason, the dollar's strengthening has been modest.

Today, the first half of the day will see data on changes in Italy's industrial production, as well as a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. These events may have some influence on the euro's exchange rate. Economists are closely monitoring Italy's industrial production figures as they are an indicator of the country's economic condition and can predict trends in the eurozone as a whole. Significant deviations from expectations in the data may trigger market volatility.

Lagarde's speech, in turn, provides a unique opportunity to gain insight into the current state of the eurozone's economy and the ECB's monetary policy plans. Traders will analyze her words closely, seeking hints about future interest rate moves. However, it is unlikely that we will hear anything new from her, especially given the completion of the eurozone's interest rate-cut cycle.

There is no data scheduled for the UK today.

If the data coincides with economists' expectations, it is advisable to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.1650, which may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1688 and 1.1705.

Sell on a breakout of level 1.1620, which may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1600 and 1.1570.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 1.3315, which may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3350 and 1.3380.

Sell on a breakout of level 1.3295, which may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3270 and 1.3230.

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buy on a breakout of level 156.90, which may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 157.35 and 157.70.

Sell on a breakout of level 156.55, which may lead to a sell-off in the dollar to around 156.12 and 155.75.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1635 on a return below this level.

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.1618 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3321 on a return below this level.

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3291 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6652 on a return below this level.

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 0.6629 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3863 on a return below this level.

Look for longs after a failed breakout above 1.3836 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on December 10? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Wednesday. Thus, throughout the day, traders will have nothing to react to. Only late in the evening will the FOMC meeting results be announced, which will certainly provoke a storm of emotions in the market and significant volatility.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Several fundamental events are scheduled for Wednesday. Of course, the FOMC meeting stands out as the only event of the day, broken into several parts. The decision on the interest rate can be considered already made – a 0.25% decrease. However, in addition to the rate, traders will learn about the FOMC's plans for 2026 – the "dot plot" will be published, reflecting each member of the Monetary Committee's expectations. Additionally, there will be a speech by FOMC Chairman Jerome Powell, who may also hint at future decisions of the central bank in his address. In the European Union, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will also give a speech, which is unlikely to interest anyone at this time (especially today), as there are still no questions regarding monetary policy with the ECB. In any case, the FOMC is likely focused solely on lowering the key interest rate, while the ECB may even consider raising it next year. The dollar's situation remains unfavorable under any circumstances this evening.

General Conclusions:

Throughout the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to lean towards growth, as both continue to form an upward trend. The euro is trading in the range of 1.1655-1.1666. The British pound has a range of 1.3319-1.3331. Volatility on Wednesday may again be low throughout the day, but traders can expect a "storm" in the evening.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can form a multitude of false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the time between the start of the European session and mid-American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, using signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility exists, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as an area of support or resistance.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction to trade.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is crucial to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and implementing sound money management are keys to successful long-term trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for ETHEREUM for December 10-14, 2025: sell below $3,437 (overbougth - 3/8 Murray)

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Ethereum is trading around $3,300, undergoing a slight technical correction after decisively breaking the 200 EMA and reaching the top of the downtrend channel, which acted as strong resistance.

In the coming hours, Ether is expected to continue its technical correction and could reach the 200 EMA around 3,181.

According to the H4 chart, ETH has reached overbought levels, so a technical correction is more likely to occur in the coming hours and could suggest an opportunity to open short positions.

In the event of a pullback towards the 3/8 Murray located at 3,437, this level coincides with the top of the uptrend channel and could be seen as an opportunity to sell with short-term targets around 2/8 Murray at 3,125. Finally, Ether is expected to reach the psychological level of $3,000 and even fall to the bottom of the bullish downtrend channel around $2,910.

Our outlook for the coming days is negative as we are seeing overbought levels. Therefore, as long as the price remains below $3,450, any technical rebound should be used as an opportunity to enter short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.