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EUR/USD Analysis on January 8, 2026

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The 4-hour chart wave structure of EUR/USD has been quite clear, though rather complex in recent months (see lower chart). There is no question of canceling the upward trend that began in January of last year, but the wave structure starting from July 1, 2025, has become complex and extended. In my view, the instrument has completed the construction of corrective wave 4, which took a very unusual form. Within this wave, we observed exclusively corrective structures, leaving no doubt about its corrective nature.

In my opinion, the upward trend is not yet complete, and its targets extend up to the 25th level. In the coming weeks, we can expect a continuation of the upward wave sequence, which could take a five-wave form. However, there is no certainty that an impulsive segment of the trend is currently forming, so the entire upward wave sequence could instead form a three-wave structure. In that case, a new downward segment may already be starting, which would also be corrective.

EUR/USD continued a weak decline throughout Thursday, and meanwhile, a paradoxical situation has emerged in the market. The US dollar's strengthening over the past two weeks has not been strong enough to be considered a welcoming reaction to Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions. Yet at the same time, the US currency is rising, even though Trump is again doing everything possible to make the world abandon the dollar. What does this movement mean?

Primarily, it reflects uncertainty—market uncertainty in its own decisions and expectations. On one hand, Trump's actions are difficult to interpret positively. On the other, investors favor strong leaders because they represent strong countries, and strong countries generally have strong, stable economies. As a result, the market is conflicted between two forces, leaving the dollar in a difficult and uncertain situation. Forex market participants understand that Trump's military aggression will clearly not stop at Venezuela. If the escalation of Trump's military plans spreads to Latin America, the Middle East, and Europe, it would resemble an Orwellian division of the world. Investors simply do not know how to react to such a "redistribution of property" and spheres of influence. This helps explain the US dollar's weak growth.

It should also be remembered that tomorrow, the US will release the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports, and the market is hesitant to make trading decisions because it is uncertain what to expect. On one hand, the first labor market reports (ADP and JOLTS) showed weak readings. On the other hand, this does not mean that the Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment reports will also be weak.

General Conclusions

Based on my EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues the construction of the upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. Targets for the current trend segment may extend up to the 25th level. The current upward wave sequence may be complete, which means a decline could be expected soon. However, the trend segment that began on November 5 could still take a five-wave form. US economic data released this week may support this.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to remind that it is better to identify clear structures on charts rather than strictly adhere to every wave. Currently, the upward structure is beyond doubt.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often undergo changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in the direction of movement—never. Always remember protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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Holders of the Japanese yen likely breathed a sigh of relief at the end of another year. In 2025, the yen managed to slightly gain against the weakened US dollar. After a poor second half of the year (roughly -7.5% against the G10 average), the question remained: would it become the second-worst performing currency in the G10 group?

The yen continues to face pressure from fiscal challenges and escalating tensions with China. In December, a familiar pattern emerged: the Japanese Finance Minister announced that authorities were ready to take decisive steps against currency fluctuations that deviate from fundamental factors. Such warnings tend to intensify whenever the yen weakens sharply. However, actual interventions usually require several weeks of escalating rhetoric, and at the moment, no further sharp decline in the yen seems likely.

The question arises: what part of the yen's movement is inconsistent with fundamentals? By year-end, two factors weighed on it: an unexpectedly large government stimulus package raised concerns about the country's financial stability, and tensions with China intensified. Japanese officials were irritated by the Japanese Prime Minister's statements regarding Taiwan. While his words were not new, merely reiterating previous positions, China appears to have escalated the situation. This week, China imposed export restrictions on dual-use goods for Japan. For an already weak real economy, this is an additional blow.

Currently, it is difficult to predict when the conflict with China will ease or when the yen will recover. It is also hard to imagine that Japan will easily resolve the conflict. Disappointing wage data released this morning make further interest rate hikes even less likely. Those hoping for a significant strengthening of the yen must, for now, wait for the tensions with China to subside. They can only hope that the conflict does not escalate further. Ultimately, the Chinese government could intensify the conflict even more by imposing a full ban on rare earth exports, which would deal a significant blow to the yen.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is attempting to break the round level of 157.00 amid overall US dollar strength. If it holds above this level, prices could easily reach the early-year high around 157.30, after which the pair could challenge the round level of 158.00.

On the other hand, support is found at the 14-day EMA around 156.50. Failure to hold this level could push the pair down to the 20-day SMA on the way to the round level of 156.00, below which bulls would gradually start losing control.

For now, however, daily chart oscillators remain positive, suggesting that bulls can still contend with the situation.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. "Smart Money." The Bulls Have Run Out of Fuel

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The EUR/USD pair has been declining for the tenth consecutive day. At present, quotes remain within the "bullish" imbalance 9, which still allows for an eventual reaction from this pattern. Despite the persistence of the decline, it is very weak. It is clear that the bulls have run out of fuel, while the bears have not yet refueled either, leaving price action sluggish in either direction. One might assume that Friday's US labor market and unemployment data could shift trader sentiment, but I would not count on it too much. Even this week, there have been plenty of important events and reports, yet movements in the Forex market remain largely symbolic.

Therefore, I continue to wait for a bullish reaction from imbalance 9 until the invalidation of this pattern forces a conclusion that the bullish impulse has been canceled. This would not turn the trend bearish, but it could allow the bears to seize the initiative for a while. Thus, only the bulls themselves can save the situation—and they need to do so as quickly as possible, ideally this week. If the bulls manage to restore the euro's positions, the reaction to imbalance 9 could then be considered double.

Two weeks ago, there was a liquidity sweep of the swing from December 16, after which the euro's decline began. The pair's fall may end this week, as bullish imbalance 9 is still a support zone for price. The news background for the dollar this week has been very challenging, with most economic data not in its favor. Nevertheless, the bulls continue to idle.

The chart picture continues to signal bullish dominance. The bullish trend remains intact, but at the moment traders need new signals. Such a signal can only be formed within imbalance 9. If bearish patterns appear or bullish ones are invalidated, the trading strategy will have to be adjusted. For now, however, there are no grounds for this.

The news background on Thursday was virtually absent. The unemployment rate in the EU unexpectedly declined, but this did little to support the euro. Producer prices rose by 0.5%, yet even in this case the bulls failed to go on the offensive. US initial jobless claims for the first week of January came in line with traders' expectations.

The bulls have had plenty of reasons for a renewed advance for the past three months, and all of them remain relevant. These include the (in any case) dovish outlook for FOMC monetary policy, Donald Trump's overall policy (which has not changed recently), the US–China confrontation (where only a temporary truce has been reached), protests by the American public against Trump under the "No kings" banner, weakness in the labor market, the bleak prospects for the US economy (recession), and the government shutdown (which lasted a month and a half but was clearly not priced in by traders). Thus, further growth of the pair, in my view, would be entirely natural.

One should also not lose sight of Trump's trade war and his pressure on the FOMC. Recently, new tariffs have been introduced less frequently, and Trump himself has stopped criticizing the Fed. However, I personally believe this is just another "temporary calm." In recent months, the FOMC has been easing monetary policy, which is why there has been no new wave of criticism from Trump. But this does not mean these factors no longer pose problems for the dollar.

I still do not believe in a bearish trend. The news background remains extremely difficult to interpret in favor of the dollar, which is why I do not attempt to do so. The blue line marks the price level below which the bullish trend could be considered complete. Bears would need to push the price down about 300 points to reach it, and I consider this task unrealistic under the current news background and circumstances. The nearest upward target for the European currency remains the "bearish" imbalance at 1.1976–1.2092 on the weekly chart, which was formed back in June 2021.

News calendar for the US and the European Union:

• Eurozone – Retail Sales Change (10:00 UTC)
• US – Building Permits (13:30 UTC)
• US – Housing Starts (13:30 UTC)
• US – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (13:30 UTC)
• US – Unemployment Rate (13:30 UTC)
• US – Average Hourly Earnings Change (13:30 UTC)
• US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (15:00 UTC)

On January 9, the economic calendar contains seven events, two of which can be considered extremely important. The impact of the news flow on market sentiment on Friday may be strong in the second half of the day.

EUR/USD forecast and trader advice:

In my view, the pair may be in the final stage of a bullish trend. Despite the fact that the news background remains on the bulls' side, bears have attacked more often in recent months. Still, I see no realistic reasons for the start of a bearish trend.

From imbalances 1, 2, 4, and 5, traders had opportunities to buy the euro. In all cases, we saw some growth. Opportunities to open new trend-following long positions also appeared after a reaction to bullish imbalance 3, then after a reaction to imbalance 8, and later after the bounce from imbalance 9. This week, a second reaction to bullish imbalance 9 may occur. The target for euro growth remains the 1.1976 level. New long positions are acceptable if a new bullish signal is formed. If not, the long strategy will have to be reconsidered.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

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On Thursday, the euro was virtually unchanged against the Swiss franc as markets digested fresh economic data from Switzerland and the eurozone. At the time of writing, EUR/CHF is hovering around 0.9310, halting a two-day rally.

According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index remained flat in December, posting zero month-on-month growth after a 0.2% decline in November and beating analysts' forecasts of -0.1%. On a yearly basis, inflation stood at 0.1%, as expected, up from zero the previous month. These figures reinforced confidence that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, maintaining a cautious stance and reducing the risk of a return to negative rates. At its December 11 monetary policy meeting, the SNB kept the key interest rate at 0%. The minutes released the same day noted no urgent need for adjustments. The bank's statement said the Governing Board sees no grounds for changing monetary policy at present, with neither tightening nor additional easing justified at this stage.

In the eurozone, the European Commission's business climate indicator improved to -0.56 in December from -0.66, pointing to moderate stabilization in corporate conditions. Consumer confidence rose to -13.1 from -14.6, although the overall economic sentiment indicator edged slightly lower to 96.7 from 97.1. Producer price inflation accelerated to 0.5% in November from 0.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, the PPI fell by 1.7%, extending its downward trend for a fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, eurozone unemployment declined to 6.3% in November from 6.4%. Earlier on Thursday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said current interest rates are appropriate, noting that inflation has reached its target, although uncertainty remains high.

On Friday, Switzerland will release its final unemployment data. In the eurozone, markets are awaiting releases on retail sales, as well as Germany's industrial production and trade balance.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, raising hopes that bulls will overcome the 20- and 100-day SMAs, after which it would be easier for them to control the market. However, bulls would gain full control only after breaking above the 200-day SMA, which lies nearby.

It is also worth noting that both the 200- and 100-day SMAs are sloping downward, indicating that the broader trend has not yet changed direction.

On the other hand, prices have found support at the 14-day EMA. Failure to hold this level would likely see the pair retreat toward the psychological level of 0.9300.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is declining; however, the lack of clear fundamental reasons for the drop is likely due to profit-taking ahead of Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. These key figures will significantly influence expectations for Fed rate cuts and boost US dollar volatility, giving the yellow metal a new directional impulse.

At the same time, growing acceptance of two Fed rate cuts this year prevents the US dollar from holding on to its weekly gains. Risk appetite is beginning to weaken due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which could lend support to gold as a safe-haven asset and slow its decline. Therefore, it is prudent to wait for a strong continuation of selling before opening bearish positions in XAU/USD.

Market reaction to the reported US arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend has faded, triggering a second day of profit-taking in gold on Thursday. However, a combination of factors may restrain bearish pressure on XAU/USD and limit further downside. US President Donald Trump warned Colombia and Mexico of possible military measures as part of efforts to combat criminal groups and regional instability. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed commitment to plans to seize Greenland, leaving a military option on the table for Trump.

The lack of progress in Russia–Ukraine talks, unrest in Iran, and the situation in Gaza continue to fuel geopolitical risks, which are favorable for gold as a safe-haven asset. Together with expectations of a Fed rate cut in March and another by year-end, this should help cap the metal's losses.

The Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected pickup in US services activity in December, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. However, the positive data were offset by weak labor market figures. The ADP report showed private-sector employment increasing by just 41K in December after a decline of 29K (revised from -32K) in November, versus a forecast of +47K. JOLTS data indicated job openings fell to 7.146 million in November.

For opening new positions, it is advisable to wait for Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report. These data will adjust expectations regarding Fed monetary policy, increase dollar volatility, and give gold fresh momentum.

Thursday will also bring US weekly initial jobless claims, which could create short-term opportunities in XAU/USD during the North American session. However, the current fundamental backdrop calls for caution until sustained selling is confirmed.

From a technical perspective, gold is holding above the 9-day EMA, while oscillators remain positive, confirming the strength of the bulls in the current environment. The key resistance for XAU/USD stands at $4500; a break above this level would open the way toward a record high.

The nearest support for gold is at $4440, where the 14-day EMA is located. Below it lies the 20-day SMA, after which prices could accelerate their decline toward the psychological level of $4300.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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The pound is falling against the US dollar for the third consecutive day. The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure as the dollar strengthens following unexpectedly strong US Services PMI data for December.

A slight deterioration in risk sentiment is partially offsetting the mixed US economic data released on Wednesday, supporting the dollar as a safe-haven asset and allowing it to retain its weekly gains.

In particular, the Institute for Supply Management reported an unexpected increase in business activity in the non-manufacturing sector, with its Services PMI rising to 54.4 from 52.6 in November. At the same time, the ADP private-sector employment report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in December.

The November JOLTS data also revealed a larger-than-forecast decline in job openings, pointing to a continued easing in labor demand. These indicators are reinforcing market expectations for further Federal Reserve policy easing, which could limit additional dollar strength.

In turn, a more hawkish stance from the Bank of England, signaling that interest rates are approaching a neutral level, could support the pound and thus curb further declines in GBP/USD.

No major economic releases are expected from the UK on Thursday, so spot prices will be driven by US dollar dynamics. During the North American session, traders should watch US initial jobless claims data. However, the main focus should be on Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which will adjust Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations, potentially boost the dollar, and determine the next directional impulse for GBP/USD.

From a technical perspective, prices are attempting to hold above support at 1.3440, where the 20-day SMA is located. If this level fails to hold, the pair could accelerate its decline toward the round 1.3400 level, followed by the key support that defines bullish strength—the 200-day SMA. For now, however, daily oscillators remain positive, allowing bulls to stay in the game.

Resistance is seen at the 9-day EMA around 1.3470, ahead of the psychological 1.3500 level.

The table below shows the percentage change of the US dollar against major currencies today. The US dollar posted its strongest gains against the New Zealand dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

British Pound Weakens on Housing Market Data

.The British pound fell in response to housing market data and to discussions that the policies of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves could create problems for the Labor Party's broader financial plan.

According to the Halifax report, UK house prices fell in December at the fastest pace in almost two and a half years, indicating that Labor's tax-raising budget has discouraged potential buyers.

Data from the mortgage lender showed that the average house price declined by 0.6% to £297,755, marking the second consecutive monthly drop after November's figure was revised from zero to minus 0.1%. As a result, annual price growth slowed to 0.3%.

The last time house prices fell more sharply was in August 2023, when they dropped by 1.6% month on month. The report adds to evidence that Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves's budget, presented on November 26, has worsened housing market conditions in 2025 after higher stamp duty distorted demand. In November, the chancellor raised taxes, including a new levy on homes worth more than £2 million.

Although the chancellor is counting on a revival in consumer demand to help finance the public spending announced in the November 26 budget, if consumer spending turns out to be weaker than expected, it could leave a £40 billion hole in the public finances.

It is worth noting that the Halifax data align with recent figures from competitor Nationwide, which also reported falling prices at the end of the year. House prices in the capital fell by 1.3% during 2025 to £539,086, while in the north-east of England annual growth amounted to 3.5%.

The report also notes that the recent decline in house prices could make housing more affordable for first-time buyers, reducing the house-price-to-income ratio to its lowest level in more than a decade. Halifax analysts expect house prices to rise slightly in 2026 as mortgage costs fall and uncertainty over potential tax increases fades. However, any growth is likely to be limited amid growing concerns about job losses.

As noted above, the British pound reacted to all of this with a decline.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3460. Only then will a move toward 1.3488 become possible, a level above which a breakout will be quite challenging. The most distant target is the 1.3514 level. If the pair declines, bears will try to take control of the 1.3435 level. If successful, a break of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3414 low, with the prospect of a further move toward 1.3387.

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking above the 1.1700 level. Only this will allow a move toward a test of 1.1720. From there, the pair could rise to 1.1740, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1765 high. In the event of a decline, I expect any serious action from large buyers only around the 1.1665 level. If no support emerges there, it would be preferable to wait for a retest of the 1.1640 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1616.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the Japanese yen

A test of the 156.56 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. A second test of 156.56, with the MACD in oversold territory, led to the implementation of Buy Scenario No. 2 for the dollar, resulting in a 20-point rise in the pair.

In the second half of the day, economic data will be released, including weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit figures.

The number of new jobless claims is a key indicator of labor market health. An increase in this figure may signal a slowdown in economic growth and a possible decline in consumer activity. Conversely, a decrease in claims may point to strengthening labor market conditions and increase the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The trade balance shows the relationship between exports and imports. However, given that it is consistently negative in the United States, changes in this indicator are unlikely to have a strong impact on the dollar.

Consumer credit data will show how actively U.S. consumers are using borrowed funds to purchase goods and services. An increase in lending may indicate consumer optimism, which could support the dollar and weaken the Japanese yen.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price reaches the entry area around 156.86 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 157.30 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.30, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. Further growth in the pair can be expected in line with the prevailing trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.64 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 156.86 and 157.30 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a break below the 156.64 level (red line on the chart), which should result in a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 156.15, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Selling pressure on the pair may return today in the event of weak U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 156.86 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.64 and 156.15 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the British pound

A test of the 1.3448 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved well below the zero line, which limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound.

A sharp drop in the UK house price index led to a decline in the British pound. Investors reacted immediately to the alarming signals coming from the real estate market, which has traditionally been considered one of the pillars of the UK economy. Overall, a combination of factors triggered this situation. First and foremost, these include high interest rates set by the Bank of England. The situation is further aggravated by the fact that the housing market had been overheated for a long time. The continuous price growth observed in recent years did not correspond to real household incomes. The decline therefore became an inevitable correction, which, unfortunately, has a negative impact on the economy as a whole.

Later in the day, data on weekly U.S. initial jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit will be released. Traders always study these figures closely to assess the current state of the U.S. economy and forecast further actions by the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Initial jobless claims are an important indicator of labor market conditions. An increase in this figure may signal a slowdown in economic growth and a potential decline in consumer spending. The trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A negative balance may weigh on economic growth, as it indicates that the country imports more than it exports. However, for the United States, such a situation is quite normal. Taken together, these data will help form a more complete picture of the current U.S. economic situation and assess the prospects for its further development. Market reaction to the release of these indicators may be highly volatile, so traders are advised to exercise caution.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound if the price reaches the entry area around 1.3455 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 1.3489 (the thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3489, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the level. A rise in the pound today can be expected only if U.S. data are very weak.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3435 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.3455 and 1.3489 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below the 1.3435 level (red line on the chart), which should lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3405, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Selling pressure on the pound may return today in the event of strong U.S. data.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.3455 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3435 and 1.3405 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th (U.S. Session)

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Trade review and trading tips for the euro

A test of the 1.1677 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair declined by only 7 points.

Producer prices in the eurozone rose, while the unemployment rate fell. At first glance, this would seem like a good reason to buy the European currency. However, traders sometimes display remarkable selectivity, and the euro's behavior in this case is a clear example. Despite positive signals from the eurozone economy, the single currency remained largely indifferent, showing neither growth nor any noticeable weakening.

I hope that after midday we will see a period of higher activity. The main event will be the release of the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report. This indicator is traditionally considered a key gauge of the health of the U.S. labor market and can significantly affect the value of the dollar. Along with the labor market situation, close attention will also be paid to the U.S. trade balance. A negative trade balance is a persistent issue for the U.S. economy, and any narrowing of the deficit is viewed as a positive sign. To conclude the day, data on U.S. consumer credit will be released. An increase in this indicator suggests that Americans are confident in their financial situation and continue to spend actively, which is an important driver of economic growth. On the other hand, excessive growth in household debt may pose risks in the longer term.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible if the price reaches the 1.1687 area (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1715. At 1.1715, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro can be expected only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1673 level when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward the opposite levels of 1.1687 and 1.1715 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1673 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1647, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from the level. Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1687 level when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1673 and 1.1647 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be taken manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 08/01/2026: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN (BTC/USD) for January 8-12, 2026: buy above $90,000 (rebound - 200 EMA)

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Bitcoin is trading around $90,252, rebounding after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel formed since December 24. According to the H4 chart, we are seeing a strong technical correction after reaching a high of $95,000.

This level, where the price of Bitcoin is now, provides good support as it is located at the 200 EMA and could serve as a good point to open long positions if the price recovers above this area.

A decisive break of the uptrend channel and consolidation below $89,500 could see Bitcoin continue its decline and reach the 2/8 Murray at $87,500, and finally accelerate its fall towards $81,250.

As long as BTC trades within the uptrend channel and consolidates above the psychological level of $90,000, the bullish outlook remains intact. We expect the cryptocurrency to recover and reach the 21 SMA around $92,488, the 3/8 Murray at $93,750, and could eventually reach the top of the uptrend channel around $96,000.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so we must be careful if a break below $89,500 occurs, as Bitcoin's decline could continue.Eventually, it could reach $87,000 and $81,000.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for January 8-12, 2026: buy above 1.1657 (rebound - 3/8 Murray)

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The euro is trading around 1.1679 below the 21 SMA and below the 200 EMA under bearish pressure but showing signs of exhaustion as consolidation is observed around 1.1670.

The euro is moving within a downtrend channel formed since December 19 and has been falling during recent sessions. Consolidation above the 3/8 Murray around 1.1657 is likely in the coming days.

In the coming hours, the euro will find good support around the 3/8 Murray. If EUR/USD reaches the bottom of the downtrend channel around 1.1631. Both levels could be seen as an opportunity to open long positions with a target at the 4/8 Murray around 1.1718.

The Eagle indicator is reaching oversold levels, so EUR/USD will likely remain above 1.1650 and below 1.1718 in the coming days.

A recovery of the euro is expected in the short term, so we will look for opportunities to open positions if EUR/USD reaches the aforementioned support levels.

A decisive break above 1.1750 will enable a bullish outlook for the euro. A decisive break below 1.1630 could signal a decline in the euro. Therefore, EUR/USD could fall to the psychological level of 1.1500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for January 8-12, 2026: sell below $4,451 (21 SMA - 4/8 Murray)

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Gold is falling after encountering strong resistance around the psychological level of $4,500. The price of gold is now around $4,431, below the 21 SMA, under bearish pressure.

The price of gold is now expected to continue falling in the coming hours until it reaches the 4/8 Murray at $4,375.

In case of a pullback towards $4,451. If the price fails to consolidate above this zone, it will be seen as an opportunity to open short positions with a target at $4,375. In case this support is breached, gold could cover the gap it left around $4,327.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, but we must be careful as it is approaching oversold levels. Thus, after a strong technical correction, there could be a good technical rebound, and we must be very careful, as there could be a strong recovery in gold around the 4/8 Murray or around the 200 EMA.

If the price consolidates above $4,450, we could expect gold to continue its uptrend and could reach the 5/8 Murray at $4,531 and could even exceed this level and reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,625.

Our outlook for gold remains bearish for the coming days. Below $4,450, we will continue to sell with targets at $4,375, $4,327, and finally at $4,310.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for CRUDE OIL (CL) for January 8-12, 2026: buy above $56.25 (rebound - 0/8 Murray)

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The price of WTI crude oil is around $56.58 per barrel and is likely to continue rising in the coming days until it reaches the 21 SMA located around $57.00, and could even reach the top of the downtrend channel around $57.81.

Crude oil has been consolidating above $55 during the last few sessions. If we compare this with the chart above, it is an area where 0/8 Murray is located, which represents strong support and, in turn, the bottom of the downtrend channel, which has enabled a recovery in WTI.

Given that the Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, we can open long positions as long as the price consolidates above $55.60 or in case of a rebound towards $56.25, with a target at $57.80.

A sharp break below $55.60 could change the outlook for crude oil, and we could expect a sharp decline towards the -1/8 Murray located at $54.68.

Our outlook could remain bullish for crude oil for the next few days as long as the price consolidates above $55.60. Any pullback will be seen as an opportunity to open long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on January 8, 2026

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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Wednesday, a process that has been going on for two weeks now, but trader activity remained minimal. Below, we will take a closer look at this situation. A consolidation below the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1686 allows for expectations of a continued decline toward the support level at 1.1645–1.1648. A close above 1.1686 today would allow traders to anticipate a modest rebound toward the 23.6% corrective level at 1.1731.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains straightforward. The most recently completed upward wave failed to exceed the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend has shifted to bearish. In my view, the decline is unlikely to be prolonged, but a break of the bearish trend is now required before expecting a renewed rise in the euro. Based on the current chart structure, such a break would occur above the resistance zone at 1.1795–1.1802 or after two consecutive bullish waves.

On Wednesday, traders had plenty of information triggers for active market participation. However, surprisingly, almost all economic data was ignored. It began with the eurozone inflation report, which raised some concerns. These concerns were related to the ECB's future monetary policy actions. German inflation showed a sharp slowdown in December, and many traders expected a significant deceleration in eurozone inflation as well. Had that happened, the likelihood of ECB monetary tightening in 2026 would have dropped to nearly zero. Moreover, a fall in inflation below the central bank's target would have meant that the probability of another rate cut was higher than that of a rate hike. Despite the fact that the consumer price index did not fall below 2%, the risk of further inflation deceleration remains. Price growth in Europe has slowed for the third consecutive month, although in the medium term it has remained close to 2% for about 10 months.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the support level at 1.1649–1.1680 and reversed in favor of the euro. Thus, the growth process may continue toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. A consolidation below the 1.1649–1.1680 support level would increase the chances of a continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level at 38.2% – 1.1538. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicator today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

During the latest reporting week, professional market participants opened 16,177 long positions and 1,189 short positions. Sentiment among the "non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 293,000, while short positions amount to 133,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players reduced short positions and increased longs. Then came the "shutdown," and now we are seeing the same picture again: professional traders continue to build long positions. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they generate numerous issues that are likely to have long-term and structural consequences for the U.S. economy—for example, the deterioration of the labor market. Traders also fear a loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 due to pressure from Trump and amid Jerome Powell's expected resignation in May.

News calendar for the U.S. and the eurozone:

• Eurozone – Unemployment rate (10:00 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial jobless claims (13:30 UTC)

On January 8, the economic calendar contains only two entries, neither of which is particularly important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday may be extremely weak or entirely absent.

EUR/USD outlook and trading advice:

Selling the pair was possible after a rebound from the 1.1731 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1686. This target has been reached. Today, short positions can be maintained with targets at 1.1645–1.1648 and 1.1607–1.1612. Buying opportunities may arise after a rebound from one or both of these target zones on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.1686 and 1.1731.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.1492–1.1805 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on January 8, 2026

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Wednesday after consolidating below the 1.3526–1.3539 support level and returned to the 1.3437–1.3470 level, where it has been hovering for several weeks. A consolidation below this zone would favor a continuation of the decline toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362 and would result in a shift of the trend to bearish. A rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level would support the British currency and trigger some growth toward the 1.3526–1.3539 level.

The wave structure remains bullish. The most recently completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous high. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the U.S. news backdrop also leaves much to be desired. At the beginning of the new year, bulls feel confident and are barely reacting to negative factors. A break of the bullish trend would occur below the 1.3403 level.

Wednesday's news flow was the second "test" of the week for the U.S. dollar. Recall that on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI was released and disappointed the dollar. Yesterday, the ISM Services PMI exceeded traders' expectations, but at the same time, the ADP and JOLTS reports showed negative dynamics. The number of job openings in the U.S. for November totaled just 7.146 million versus forecasts of 7.6 million. ADP employment increased by 41,000, compared with expectations of 47,000–50,000. Business activity is an important indicator, but labor market reports matter more to traders. Strangely enough, the dollar found support, and bears continued to attack. However, the trend remains bullish, and on Friday the U.S. currency will face its third exam—Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. This exam will be the final and decisive one for the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has pulled back to the 1.3369–1.3435 support level. A rebound from this area would again favor the pound and a resumption of growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 127.2% (1.3795). A consolidation below the 1.3369–1.3435 level would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 1.3118–1.3140 support level. The ascending trend channel indicates that the bullish trend remains intact. No emerging divergences are observed at this time.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

Sentiment among non-commercial traders became more bullish over the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,572, while short positions decreased by 5,727. The gap between long and short positions currently stands at approximately 63,000 versus 105,000. Bears have dominated in recent months, but the pound appears to have exhausted its downward potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is the exact opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally enjoy demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp deterioration in the labor market, forcing the Fed to ease monetary policy in order to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. For 2026, the FOMC does not plan aggressive monetary easing, but at this point no one can be confident that the Fed's stance will not shift toward a more dovish position during the year.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.

U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

On January 8, the economic calendar contains just one entry, which cannot be considered important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday will be minimal.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Tips

Selling the pair was possible after a close below the 1.3526–1.3539 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3470. This target has been reached. New sell positions can be considered after a close below the 1.3437–1.3470 level, targeting 1.3352–1.3362. Buy positions may be considered today on a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 support level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.3526–1.3539.

Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market rotation continues

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The market has grown tired of the Magnificent Seven, yet the peaceful handover is accompanied by doubts about the chosen course. Investors are betting on a Goldilocks regime — the economy still strong, albeit slowing, inflation growth easing, and the Fed cutting rates. As soon as that scheme starts to falter, rotation stalls, and the S&P 500 pulls back.

Will the US equity market crash in 2026? That's the million?dollar question. If roulette lands on red three times in a row, a bet on black on the next spin looks appealing. The S&P 500 has risen for three consecutive years, and on the previous two occasions, the fourth year brought a pullback in the broad stock index.

S&P 500 Drawdown Dynamics

Stock market crashes are like earthquakes: rare and impossible to predict. Still, people inevitably listen to oracles who claim to feel the tremors. Surveys conducted by Elm Wealth and Yale University put the probability of an S&P 500 crash of 30% or more within the next 12 months at 30–31%. Judging by the futures market, this figure is too high.

Derivatives price the chances of a substantial S&P 500 drawdown in 2026 at 8%. TS Lombard concurs, putting the probability at 8–10%. The firm argues that crashes occur on average once every 10–12 years. The last one took place in 2020 during the pandemic. So no need to panic?

In reality, rotation — reducing the weight of tech names in portfolios and increasing exposure to economically sensitive stocks — is not a one?day process. It takes months. During this period, concentration in the S&P 500 will remain high, so trouble at any one of the Magnificent Seven can cause pronounced swings in the broad index.

Capital Flows into ETFs Excluding Magnificent Seven

The situation painfully resembles the dot?com crisis, when a handful of Internet companies failed to generate returns adequate to the capital invested. History repeats. Will it do so again in 2026?

For now, the market is recovering amid geopolitical shocks and closely reacting to macro prints to determine whether the Fed will cut rates this spring. In this context, a surge in services activity to a 14?month high and ADP's private?sector employment increase of 41,000 in December were catalysts for a sell-off in the broad index. It fell along with the odds of a March easing. Derivatives now price those odds at 45%. At the start of the week, on December 9, they were 51%.

Technically, the daily chart shows that there is a chance that the S&P 500 will form the Three Indians reversal pattern. For that to occur, the price must fall below 6,920. As long as the broad index trades above that level, the focus should remain on buying. Otherwise, it makes sense to prepare a short?term selling strategy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Ripple rejects IPO plans

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While Bitcoin shows renewed weakness amid another wave of outflows from spot ETFs, Ripple President Monica Long said the company will remain private and sees no need to go public.

Long's remarks underscore Ripple's confidence in its current business model. Remaining private gives the company flexibility to make long-term strategic decisions without the pressure of short-term public-market scrutiny—an advantage in the fast-changing world of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.

The $500 million private funding round in November 2025 at a $40 billion valuation demonstrates strong investor interest in Ripple and its technology. The capital provides the company with substantial resources to fund growth and expand operations. By avoiding an IPO-driven liquidity push, Ripple can deploy funds more efficiently toward strategic investments.

Ripple is focused on growth through acquisitions and product development, a strategy intended to strengthen its position in the industry. Acquisitions enable the company to rapidly broaden its technology portfolio and client base, while product development addresses evolving market needs. Together, these moves form a long-term plan based on organic growth and targeted purchases.

The decision to stay private appears to be part of a broader strategy to cement Ripple's role as a leading provider of cross-border payments and other blockchain solutions. It allows the company to prioritize innovation and expansion without the demands and risks associated with a public listing.

Trading recommendations:

Bitcoin: Buyers are targeting a return to $91,300, which would open a direct path to $93,200 and then toward $95,000. The farther target is the peak near $97,400; clearing that level would signal attempts to restore a bullish market. On a decline, buyers are expected near $89,600. A fall below that area could quickly push BTC toward $87,400, with a further target around $85,500.

Ethereum: Clear consolidation above $3,189 would open a route to $3,280, with a farther target near $3,372; surpassing that level would strengthen bullish sentiment and renew buyer interest. If ETH falls, buyers are anticipated at $3,105. A drop below that zone could send ETH to about $2,997, with a longer target near $2,887.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

German factory orders jump

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A sharp rise in German factory orders went largely unnoticed by traders, allowing EUR/USD to remain near 1.1680.

Data showed that in November 2025, order volume for Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly increased, signaling an initial recovery in Europe's largest economy. Demand jumped 5.6% month?on?month, the largest gain in a year.

The figures offer cautious optimism after recent signs of stagnation in the German economy. A rise in orders, particularly from abroad, suggests that German firms have begun to adapt to difficult global trade conditions, including energy?price volatility and geopolitical tensions.

The machinery and equipment sector made a significant contribution. Higher orders in that segment indicate companies may be resuming investment in modernization and capacity expansion, which could boost competitiveness over the long term. Although the surge was driven in part by large individual contracts, the statistical office reported a 0.7% increase even when those orders were excluded.

The sharp jump followed two solid monthly gains that had raised hopes that manufacturing activity was picking up. Economists had expected a 1% decline.

However, automakers continue to struggle amid Chinese competition and US tariffs. Economists forecast the loss of about 100,000 jobs in the sector by the end of the decade. Rising defense and industrial spending will offset only a portion of those losses.

The delayed November report and the persistent challenges facing the eurozone's flagship economy appear to have tempered market reaction, leading traders to largely ignore the data.

According to a technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair, buyers should consider reclaiming the 1.1700 level. That would open the way to test 1.1720. From there, a move to 1.1740 would be possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players could be difficult. The extended target is 1.1765. On a decline, look for meaningful buying interest near 1.1665. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open long positions from 1.1616.

As for the GBP/USD pair, buyers should target the nearest resistance at 1.3460. That would allow a move toward 1.3488, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3514. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3435. A break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3414, with scope to extend to 1.3387.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD gains value

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The US dollar strengthened slightly after data showed hiring in American companies grew at a moderate pace in December, signaling a slowdown in job growth at the end of 2025. On Wednesday, ADP Research reported that private-sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, following a 28,000 decline in November. Economists had forecast a 50,000 rise.

Although the numbers fell short of expectations, they nonetheless pointed to a degree of resilience in the labour market. The slowdown in hiring, however, could prompt the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the first quarter of this year. Investors are watching closely for upcoming data from the US Labor Department, which will help shape the Fed's policy path. Many market participants believe slower job growth would encourage a more accommodative approach to interest rates.

The ADP report adds to evidence of a gradual cooling in the labour market seen last year. Hiring has been sluggish, and unemployment has risen, weighing on economists' forecasts and dampening households' perceptions of job prospects.

The December gain was driven primarily by education and health services, as well as leisure and hospitality. Payrolls contracted in professional services and manufacturing. Small businesses resumed hiring after several months of cuts.

"Small establishments recovered from November job losses with positive end-of-year hiring, even as large employers pulled back," ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson said.

Weakness in the labour market is among the Federal Reserve's primary concerns. Policymakers reduced interest rates three times at the end of 2025 and must now balance that easing with still-elevated inflation as they consider further cuts in the new year.

According to a technical outlook for the EUR/USD pair, buyers should consider reclaiming the 1.1700 level. That would open the way to test 1.1720. From there, a move to 1.1740 would be possible, although advancing beyond that without support from major players could be difficult. The extended target is 1.1765. On a decline, look for meaningful buying interest near 1.1665. If no buyers appear there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1640 or to open long positions from 1.1616.

As for the GBP/USD pair, buyers should target the nearest resistance at 1.3460. That would allow a move toward 1.3488, above which a breakout would be challenging. The extended target is around 1.3514. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to take control at 1.3435. A break of that range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and could push GBP/USD down to 1.3414, with scope to extend to 1.3387.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on January 8: S&P 500 and NASDAQ slump sharply

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Yesterday, stock indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 fell by 0.34%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.94%.

The rise in US Treasury bond prices continued against the backdrop of weak economic data and increased geopolitical tension. Yields on Treasuries fell across the curve, sliding by nearly one basis point to 4.13%. Australian bonds strengthened after the central bank signaled that policymakers would remain cautious about future rate moves. Futures on Japanese government bonds held gains after the minimum price at the 30?year auction slightly exceeded estimates.

Asian indices also declined, as did futures on European and US equity indices this morning. Commodities weakened: platinum plunged by 3.7% and silver fell by 3.3%, topping the list of precious metals with the biggest losses. Gold eased by 1%. Oil ticked up after the United States announced new measures to tighten control over Venezuela. Nickel gave back some ground after its biggest rally in more than three years on the London exchange on Tuesday.

On Thursday, stocks declined as weak US labor data prompted traders to raise expectations for more active Federal Reserve intervention. ADP Research data showed an increase of only 41,000 versus a consensus of 50,000. The comprehensive US Labor Department employment report for December is due on Friday. It will be released in the normal format for the first time in several months after the six?week US government shutdown that disrupted data collection last year.

Clearly, markets have taken a breather after a strong start to 2026, and few participants want to add risk ahead of Friday's US jobs report. And while no one expects an interest rate cut in January, the debate around timing has not been settled.

Meanwhile, gold fell for a second straight day ahead of the annual rebalancing of commodity indices, an event that could trigger the sale of futures contracts worth billions in the coming days.

Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the immediate task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,914. Overcoming that level would signal further upside and open the path to $6,930. An equally important objective for bulls is to secure control above the $6,946 mark to strengthen their positions. In case of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers should defend around $6,896. A break below this level could quickly push the index back to $6,883 and open the way to $6,871.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Watch on January 8th? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports

Few macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are of major importance. However, we would like to remind you that important reports were released yesterday in both the United States and the European Union, yet they triggered virtually no market reaction. Today, traders will have to make do with entirely secondary reports on unemployment and producer prices in the eurozone, as well as initial jobless claims in the United States. We believe these releases are unlikely to provoke any meaningful reaction from traders.

Analysis of Fundamental Events

No fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday either. In the new year, several members of the FOMC have already made comments, but these remarks are meaningless in the context of Jerome Powell's December stance and the overall position of the Federal Reserve, especially given the lack of new data on unemployment, inflation, and the labor market. Recall that the Fed's position implies a pause in monetary easing at the January meeting, and that throughout the year the key interest rate may be cut only once, as indicated by the latest dot plot chart. Therefore, the stance of individual officials or the Committee as a whole can change only after new Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index reports are released.

Overall Conclusions

During the fourth trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to decline. The euro may do so within the framework of a downward trend, with the British pound following suit. However, we would not recommend ignoring buy signals either, as there have been no new reasons for the dollar to strengthen, and the downward trend in the euro looks very unconvincing.

Basic Rules of the Trading System

1. The strength of a signal is measured by the time required for the signal to form (a rebound from or a breakout of a level). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat (range-bound) market, any pair may generate many false signals—or none at all. In any case, at the first signs of a flat market, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades should be opened during the time period from the beginning of the European session until the middle of the U.S. session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, trades based on MACD signals should preferably be taken only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close to each other (from 5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a single support or resistance zone.
7. After the price moves 15–20 points in the correct direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What Is Shown on the Charts

• Price support and resistance levels are levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red lines represent channels or trendlines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3)—histogram and signal line—is an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the economic calendar) can strongly influence currency pair movements. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution or positions should be closed to avoid sharp price reversals against the prior move.

Beginner forex traders should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are the keys to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 156.60 price level coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for buying the U.S. dollar. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

Yesterday's ADP report on U.S. private-sector employment for December exceeded November's figures, allowing the dollar to strengthen against the Japanese yen. Next, the market's focus will shift to the release of nonfarm payrolls data, which will be published this Friday.

As for today's Japanese statistics, a report on the consumer confidence index is expected in the near term. This indicator reflects Japanese households' sentiment regarding the current economic situation and future expectations, and it plays a key role in forecasting consumer spending—the most important component of the country's GDP. Traders and analysts closely monitor the consumer confidence index, as it can serve as a leading indicator of economic changes and influence the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions. Low consumer confidence readings may signal pessimism among the population, which in turn could lead to reduced spending and slower economic growth. In addition, it is important to consider that consumer confidence in Japan is influenced by various factors, including inflation levels, labor market conditions, geopolitical risks, and even natural disasters.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY if the price reaches the entry area around 156.86 (thin green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward the 157.20 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 157.20, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.56 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 156.86 and 157.20 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 156.56 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 156.15 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. It is preferable to sell as high as possible.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 156.86 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 156.56 and 156.15 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on January 8th. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3486 price level occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined toward the target level of 1.3455.

The ADP data on private-sector employment in the United States for December came in higher than November's figures but below economists' forecasts, allowing the U.S. dollar to show confident growth against the pound.

In the short term, the dollar is likely to remain range-bound until new clear signals emerge from the Federal Reserve or from economic statistics. Today, in the first half of the day, the focus will shift to the UK housing price index from Halifax. These figures provide a current snapshot of real estate market dynamics and serve as an important indicator for assessing the overall health of the British economy. The housing market is closely linked to consumer confidence and spending, so price fluctuations can have a noticeable impact on household behavior and investment activity. Analysts and traders will closely examine the Halifax report to identify signs of cooling or, conversely, overheating in the market. A sharp decline in prices may signal looming economic problems, while steady growth may indicate a favorable environment supported by rising incomes and mortgage affordability.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound when the price reaches the entry area around 1.3471 (thin green line on the chart), with a growth target at the 1.3500 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3500, I plan to exit long positions and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from that level. Pound growth today can be expected after strong economic data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3448 price level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3471 and 1.3500 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3448 level is broken (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3417 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point move from that level. Pound sellers may become active after weak economic data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3471 price level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3448 and 1.3417 can be expected.

What Is Shown on the Chart

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price level where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Ahead of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.