Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

EUR/USD Analysis on November 14, 2025

.

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has transformed and, unfortunately, not for the better. There is no talk of cancelling the upward trend segment that began in January 2025, but the wave structure has become significantly more complex since July 1 and has taken on a more extended form. In my view, the pair is currently in the process of forming corrective wave 4, which has taken on a non-standard shape. However, the latest five-wave corrective structure suggests that the decline may be ending at this stage.

The formation of the upward trend segment continues, and the news background mostly supports anything but the dollar. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump continues. The President's confrontation with the Federal Reserve may reach a new level in 2026. The market's "dovish" expectations regarding Fed policy remain strong, especially for next year. The labor market is "cooling," but there is no official data. I believe the latest strengthening of the dollar is somewhat paradoxical. But paradoxes do occur in the markets.

In my opinion, the upward trend segment is not yet complete, and its targets extend up to the 1.25 level. The sequence of waves a-b-c-d-e appears complete; therefore, I expect the instrument to rise in any case.

The EUR/USD exchange rate barely changed throughout Friday. The entire week was marked by euro buying, though the buying was very restrained. If we assume that corrective wave 4 is complete, then we are now observing the beginning of the future global wave 5—an impulse wave. However, its early phase doesn't look like the beginning of an impulse. It is quite possible that wave 4 will become even more extended and unconventional.

Nevertheless, demand for the euro is growing, and that is encouraging. Let me remind you that this week (while the euro was rising) the market had more reasons to buy the dollar. And during the last 5–6 weeks, when demand for the dollar increased, there were actually more reasons for the euro to strengthen. So we continue to see paradoxes. The European economy still cannot support the euro, but in 2025 the euro appreciated not because of the EU economy. It grew because demand for the U.S. dollar declined almost the entire year. The fact that EUR/USD has been stable in recent months does not mean that market participants will not resume selling the U.S. currency in the months ahead.

I believe the trade war is far from over, and its constant escalation is also far from over. The Fed may refrain from a third consecutive easing round in December, but this will not change the "dovish" outlook for 2026 or Donald Trump's ongoing criticism. At the same time, the ECB has very likely (99% probability) completed its cycle of rate cuts.

General Conclusions

Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. Over the past several months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors that could weaken the U.S. dollar in the future. The target levels of the current trend segment may extend up to the 1.25 level. At the moment, corrective wave 4 continues to form and is becoming very complex and extended. Its latest internal structure—waves a-b-c-d-e—is close to completion or already complete. Consequently, I am again considering long positions with targets around the 1.19 level.

On a smaller scale, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave pattern is not entirely standard, as the corrective waves vary in size. For example, major wave 2 is smaller than inner wave 2 of wave 3. But this happens too. Let me remind you that it is best to identify clear structures on charts rather than force-fitting every wave. The current upward structure raises no doubts.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often indicate changes.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better to stay out.
3. One can never have 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading tips for crypto market on November 14 (North American session)

.

Bitcoin has already dropped below $97,000. Interestingly, it seems that even at these levels, there aren't many willing buyers. Ethereum also remains below $3,200, which opens the road toward the $3,000 area.

While crypto traders and investors are living through far from their best day, leading figures of the crypto industry and major political personalities are trying to inject at least some optimism.

After Bitcoin fell below $100,000, Michael Saylor posted a message saying that the current volatility is a gift for those who believe. Eric Trump is also unfazed, insisting that BTC is the best protection against inflation and corruption.

However, despite the positive statements, the market is dominated by uncertainty. Above all, this is tied to technical factors. Many traders are panic-selling their assets out of fear of further decline. In moments like these, it's important to stay calm and avoid emotional decisions. Analyze the situation, study the charts, and assess your risks. Remember that the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and both sharp rises and deep corrections are an integral part of it.

Fundamental factors also matter. Institutional interest in cryptocurrencies remains, although fresh capital has not yet begun flowing into the market. The most reasonable approach now may be portfolio diversification and a long-term investment strategy, which can help weather periods of volatility and realize profits later.

As for my intraday strategy in the crypto market, I will continue to act based on any major dips in Bitcoin and Ether, counting on the continuation of the medium-term bullish trend, which has not disappeared.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $97,400, targeting growth toward $99,800. Near $99,800, I will exit long positions and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it's necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin may be bought from the lower border at $96,100 if there is no market reaction to a downside breakout, targeting $97,400 and $99,800.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $96,100, targeting a decline toward $94,500. Near $94,500, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on a breakout, it's necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin may be sold from the upper border at $97,400 if there is no market reaction to an upside breakout, targeting $96,100 and $94,500.

Ethereum

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $3,212, targeting growth toward $3,350. I will exit long positions near $3,350 and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, it's necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is above zero.

Scenario #2: Ethereum may be bought from the lower border at $3,123 if there is no market reaction to a downside breakout, targeting $3,212 and $3,350.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ether today upon reaching the entry point around $3,123, targeting a decline toward $2,991. Near $2,991, I will exit short positions and buy immediately on the dip. Before selling on a breakout, it's necessary to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is below zero.

Scenario #2: Ether may be sold from the upper border at $3,212 if there is no market reaction to an upside breakout, targeting $3,123 and $2,991.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Dollar at risk of explosion

.

Hour by hour, the situation grows more complicated. First, Donald Trump was raising tariffs; now the current US president is cutting them. Seeking to slow inflation, the White House plans to reduce import duties on food products from several Latin American countries. How should the US dollar react? If it has been falling since Independence Day, why wouldn't the USD Index rise now? Yet another puzzle for investors, who already have plenty to worry about on the Forex market as autumn draws to a close.

The key question is: why is the US dollar weakening when the odds of a federal funds rate cut in December are falling? Normally, the opposite happens. Such derivative signals usually trigger selling in EUR/USD—but not this time. Why? It seems the market trusts its ears more than its eyes. Alternative data points to cooling employment and accelerating inflation, yet investors prefer to wait for official statistics.

US inflation dynamics

The Federal Reserve's "hawkish" rhetoric leaves the door open for a possible reduction in borrowing costs at the end of 2025. Derivatives currently price the odds at fifty-fifty—down from 72% just a week ago. Lower probabilities put pressure on stock indices. In theory, a decline in the S&P 500 should strengthen the US dollar. In practice, it hasn't.

The greenback is behaving like a risk asset, falling alongside the US equity market. The USD Index is under pressure due to rumors that the Federal Reserve may soon resume its asset-purchase program. Credit-market rates have risen due to liquidity shortages, and the central bank isn't happy about it. A shift toward balance-sheet expansion would be a bullish factor for EUR/USD.

Fed rate dynamics vs. credit market rates

According to an ING survey, 40% of investors believe the euro will trade in the $1.20–1.25 range for most of 2026. Another 36% expect $1.15–1.20. Only 2% foresee the common currency climbing above $1.25, while 4% predict a drop below $1.10. ING itself forecasts EUR/USD at 1.22, supported by fiscal stimulus and accelerating eurozone GDP growth.

Validus Risk Management argues that the US dollar is overvalued even after its 10% decline in the first half of the year. The firm believes Donald Trump will soon renew his pressure on the Fed to aggressively cut rates. Eroding confidence in the greenback, fueled by the US president's attacks on the central bank, could strengthen the bullish case for EUR/USD.

By contrast, Bank of America expects the USD Index to rise from current levels, noting that the dollar has become more sensitive to interest rates and that markets have overestimated the extent of the Fed's monetary expansion.

From a technical standpoint, the daily EUR/USD chart shows a return to fair value at 1.1625. An inside bar has formed, allowing for long positions on a breakout above $1.1650 and shorts on a move below $1.1605.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Anyone willing to buy Bitcoin?

.

To understand whether any major buyers remain in the cryptocurrency market, it's enough to look at the latest report. According to the data, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $869.9 million on Thursday. This marks the second-largest outflow in history, which explains why no one seems willing to buy Bitcoin—even below $97,000.

According to SoSoValue, Mini Trust led the withdrawals with $318.2 million in outflows. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net outflow of $256.6 million, while Fidelity's FBTC lost $119.9 million. Grayscale's GBTC, along with ETFs from Ark and 21Shares, Bitwise, VanEck, Invesco, Valkyrie, and Franklin Templeton, also recorded net outflows.

For reference, the largest single-day outflow occurred on February 25, 2025, when funds lost $1.14 billion.

The situation is worsened by broader uncertainty in the crypto market, triggered by a sharp shift to risk-off sentiment after news that the US Federal Reserve does not plan to continue actively cutting interest rates, contrary to expectations earlier this autumn. This increases pressure on investors, pushing them to reduce exposure to riskier assets—Bitcoin among them.

"The significant capital outflow signals risk reduction, reflecting institutional pullback amid macroeconomic noise," Kronos Research stated. "The observed outflows restrain short-term momentum but do not affect broader structural demand. However, it's important to understand that the outflow coincides with oversold conditions, opening the door for long-term investors."

Trading recommenations

Bitcoin Buyers are now targeting a return to $99,400, which would open the path to $102,400, and from there to $105,300. The furthest target is the high around $107,900, whose breakout would signal attempts to restore a bullish market. If Bitcoin falls, buyers are expected around $96,000. A move below this zone could quickly pull BTC down to $93,000, with the furthest target at $89,200.

Ethereum A clear consolidation above $3,256 opens a direct path to $3,390. The furthest target is the high around $3,529, and its breakout would strengthen the bullish trend and increase buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected around $3,088. A move below this zone could quickly drag ETH down to $2,920, with the furthest target at $2,756.

Chart indicators

• Red indicators represent support and resistance levels, where a slowdown or active price increase is expected.
• Green represents the 50-day moving average.
• Blue indicates the 100-day moving average.
• Light green signifies the 200-day moving average.

Crossovers or tests of the moving averages usually halt or set the market's momentum.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 14th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 154.63 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly upward from the zero line, limiting the pair's upward potential. A second test of 154.63, with the MACD in the overbought zone, triggered Scenario No. 2 for selling the dollar, though it did not lead to a significant decline in the pair.

In the second half of the day, the focus will be on speeches by FOMC members Lorie K. Logan and Raphael Bostic. A hawkish stance on rates could help the USD/JPY pair rise. Statements by senior Federal Reserve officials always attract close market attention, as they provide insight into the current state of the economy and potential future monetary policy actions. In this case, statements from Logan and Bostic—especially if they are hawkish, indicating the need to keep rates high to combat inflation—could provide significant support to the U.S. dollar. USD/JPY, which is directly influenced by the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, is particularly sensitive to changes in Fed rhetoric. If Logan and Bostic signal that the Fed does not intend to abandon a strict monetary policy, it could trigger further dollar strength against the yen.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will mostly rely on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 154.81 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 155.15 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.15, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point reversal from the level). The pair's rise can be expected to continue within the bullish trend.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.61 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 154.81 and 155.15 may then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below 154.61 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers is 154.21, where I will exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 154.81 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.61 and 154.21 may then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 14th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3134 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by 20 points.

The pound continues to show high volatility, directly linked to issues surrounding the UK's budget for next year. Uncertainty regarding tax policy, economic stimulus measures, and plans to reduce the budget deficit is putting pressure on the sterling, making investors nervous and prompting them to seek more stable assets. The situation is further complicated by high inflation, which, despite the Bank of England's efforts, has yet to show a steady downward trend.

Statements today from Federal Reserve officials about pausing the rate-cutting cycle may help the dollar strengthen against the pound. However, far more important would be fundamental statistics—which are absent today—so significant movement in GBP/USD is unlikely.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely mostly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point near 1.3160 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.3201 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3201, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a reversal of 30–35 points from the level). Pound appreciation today can be expected within the current upward trend in the pair.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3134 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3160 and 1.3201 may then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the price breaks below 1.3134 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3103 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pound will return if the Federal Reserve takes a hawkish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3160 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3134 and 1.3103 may then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for Take Profit or manually securing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold conditions

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may very quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one I provided above. Making spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 14th (U.S. Session)

.

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the European Currency

The test of the 1.1635 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, which confirmed a correct entry point for selling the euro and resulted in a decline toward the target level of 1.1614.

Several public speeches by FOMC members are scheduled for the afternoon, including Jeffrey Schmid, Lorie K. Logan, and Raphael Bostic. Given the growing support among policymakers for the idea of temporarily pausing the rate-cutting cycle, it is quite possible that these members will adopt a similar stance. If Committee members continue to express aligned views, this could significantly support the U.S. dollar and strengthen its position. Investors closely monitoring statements by Federal Reserve representatives will be assessing the likelihood of future monetary tightening.

As for the intraday strategy, I will be relying mostly on Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, it is possible to buy the euro when the price reaches the level of 1.1631 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1660. At 1.1660, I plan to exit the market, as well as open short positions in the opposite direction targeting a movement of 30–35 points from the entry point. Counting on euro growth today is only reasonable after dovish rhetoric from FRS representatives.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and only beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1610 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1631 and 1.1660 may then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1610 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1586, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point reversal from the level). Downward pressure on the pair will return today if FRS representatives take a hawkish stance.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and only beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1631 price at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.1610 and 1.1586 may then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, since further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to follow overbought and oversold conditions

Important

Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions with great caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may lose your entire deposit very quickly—especially if you ignore money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example I've provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

.

The EUR/JPY pair is consolidating after six days of gains. At the moment, spot prices are trading slightly below the psychological level of 180.00 and appear ready for further growth amid prevailing bearish sentiment toward the Japanese yen.

Earlier this week, Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi urged the Bank of Japan to coordinate monetary policy more closely, emphasizing a preference for maintaining low interest rates. This move heightens uncertainty regarding the future tightening path of the Bank of Japan—a key factor behind the yen's weakness and a major driver of the EUR/JPY pair's dynamics.

At the same time, the euro is receiving support from expectations that the European Central Bank will end its rate-cutting cycle. Economists believe that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged this year and does not plan to adjust it until the end of next year. This sentiment provides momentum for the continued rise of the EUR/JPY cross, reinforcing the likelihood of maintaining the weekly uptrend and breaking above the 180.00 level.

Today, for better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to the release of eurozone GDP data for the third quarter.

From a technical standpoint, the oscillators on the daily chart are positive but nearing overbought territory, suggesting some consolidation before the next attempt to break through the round level of 180.00.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

.

Today, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a narrow range, consolidating the recent strong rally toward the more-than-two-week high reached the day before. The US dollar is attracting active sellers, trading near the two-week low reached yesterday, Thursday, amid concerns about the possible economic consequences of a prolonged US government shutdown. This is the main factor supporting the rise of the EUR/USD pair. In addition, the contrasting policy approaches of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are supporting the currency pair, confirming the likelihood of a continued two-week upward trend.

An increasing number of Fed officials are expressing caution regarding further monetary easing given the lack of new economic data. However, traders still split the risks roughly 50/50 on the probability of a rate cut in December.

In contrast, most analysts expect that the ECB will leave the deposit rate unchanged this year and do not plan to adjust its policy until the end of next year. These expectations contribute to a positive outlook for EUR/USD, though bulls would ideally wait for a breakout above the confluence of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-day SMA to strengthen their positions.

Meanwhile, according to a senior White House official, the main economic reports for October — employment and inflation data — may not even be published. Therefore, attention should be paid to comments from influential FOMC members to understand the direction of future Fed policy decisions, and consequently, the direction of the US dollar.

Additionally, the release of preliminary eurozone GDP data for the third quarter may create momentum for the euro and generate additional trading opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical standpoint, the oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, so buyers should remain cautious. Prices have found support at the 1.16250 level, with resistance at 1.1650. However, to confirm the positive outlook, prices need to overcome the confluence of the 50-day and 100-day SMAs located at 1.1666. Below is a table showing the movement of the US dollar relative to major currencies for the current week. The greatest strength of the dollar has been recorded against the Japanese yen.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast on November 14, 2025

.

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594 and rose toward the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, as forecast. A rebound from this zone on Friday will favor the US dollar and a slight decline toward 1.1594. A consolidation above this zone will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next 38.2% corrective level at 1.1718.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the peak of the previous wave, while the last downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend remains bearish at this time. Bullish traders have launched an offensive, but they need to maintain momentum for the bullish trend to resume. For the bearish trend to be considered complete, the pair needs to rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Thursday, the news background was rather limited, but Donald Trump and the US Congress came to the rescue, which, on the fifteenth attempt, finally approved a funding bill. It approved funding not for an entire year, as many traders expected, but only for 2.5 months. During these 2.5 months, negotiations between Democrats and Republicans will continue, and if they fail, then early next year the work of the government and public services may again be paralyzed. Republicans did not meet the Democrats' demands regarding the preservation of healthcare funding, so Democrats have a real opportunity to trigger another government shutdown—the third under Donald Trump. However, for the dollar this is still some degree of relief. But it did not bring the dollar any real benefit. Bears have extracted everything possible and impossible from the news background over the last 5–6 weeks. Now they have no energy left for further attacks. As early as today, the bearish trend may transform into a bullish one.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro after a bullish divergence formed on the CCI indicator and rose toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.1649. A rebound from this level will favor the US dollar and a slight decline toward 1.1538. A consolidation above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680 will allow the bulls to continue their advance toward the 0.0% corrective level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are visible today on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been issued for more than a month. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short positions total 138,000—almost a twofold difference. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above. They indicate strong growth in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro is rising while interest in the dollar is declining.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long ones. Donald Trump's policies remain the most influential factor for traders, as they can lead to numerous long-term structural problems for America. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators continue to decline.

News calendar for the USA and the European Union:

European Union – GDP volume change in the third quarter (10:00 UTC).

On November 14, the economic calendar contains one entry. The influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday will be extremely weak and only in the morning.

EUR/USD forecast and trading recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today upon a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1594. Buying could be considered after consolidation above 1.1517 and after closing above 1.1594 with a target at 1.1645–1.1656. This target has been met. New buying opportunities will arise upon a close above 1.1656, targeting 1.1718.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast on November 14, 2025

.

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday made another rebound from the 161.8% retracement level at 1.3110 and rose above 1.3186. At that moment, it might have seemed that the bullish advance would continue, but over the next 10 hours the quotes again returned to the support level of 1.3110–1.3139. Today we once again have to expect either a rebound from this zone or a close below it. In the latter case, the decline will continue toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3024.

The wave situation remains bearish. The new upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the last downward wave (which formed over three weeks) broke the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the US dollar (in my opinion), but bullish traders have not taken advantage of this opportunity to advance. Unfortunately for the pound, the news background has deteriorated recently, and it is now more difficult for the bulls to launch an attack. To complete the bearish trend, the pair needs to rise above 1.3470 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

For the fifth consecutive day, the pound has been stuck between 1.3110 and 1.3186 (with few exceptions). Despite weak economic reports out of the UK this week, the British pound has still tried to show growth, but each time the bulls retreated near 1.3186. What can we say, when UK unemployment has already risen to 5%, industrial production has fallen by 2%, the economy is growing extremely weakly, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves still cannot decide whether taxes need to be raised to avoid a budget deficit for the next fiscal year? It should be content with the fact that for the first time in two decades, the economic situation in the United States is raising major concerns—but the data coming from the UK indicate that this country also has plenty of problems. Therefore, until the pound closes above the corridor on the 4-hour chart, I would not expect strong growth from it.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to fall within a downward trend channel. If a new bullish trend is starting now, we will gradually receive confirmations of this. I will begin to expect strong growth in the pound only after the quotes close above the channel. A close below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118 will again allow us to expect a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2925. No emerging divergences are visible today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category in the most recent reporting week became more bullish, but that reporting week was a month and a half ago. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The current gap between long and short contracts is approximately: 85,000 vs. 86,000. The bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still has prospects for decline, but with each passing month the US dollar looks weaker and weaker. If previously traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, not realizing what results they could bring, now they may worry about the consequences of that policy: a possible recession, constant introduction of new tariffs, Trump's confrontation with the Federal Reserve, as a result of which the regulator could become "politically biased." Thus, the pound looks far less dangerous than the US currency.

News calendar for the USA and the UK:

On November 14, the economic calendar contains two fairly important entries. The news background will not influence market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD forecast and trading recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today after a close below the 1.3110–1.3139 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3024, or after a rebound from 1.3186 targeting 1.3110. Long positions can be opened after a rebound from 1.3110 and 1.3139, with targets at 1.3186 and 1.3247.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The pound continues to be on edge, and there are reasons for it

.

It seemed that everyone had already come to terms with the idea that the UK budget would partly rely on new taxes imposed on the population, when yesterday, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves stated that she is considering abandoning plans to raise basic income tax rates and several other levies. This raises questions about how she intends to compensate for the existing budget deficit.

According to media reports, Reeves may decide not to increase either the basic or higher income tax rate after widespread concerns emerged within the party about breaking the Labor Party's campaign promise not to do so.

Reeves' statement, which came unexpectedly, caused a strong reaction among political opponents and economists alike. Many are wondering whether this is an attempt to gain voter support or the result of a deep analysis of the current economic situation. In any case, abandoning the planned tax increases will require alternative solutions to cover budget expenditures.

One possible option is to revise existing spending items. The government may attempt to cut funding for certain public programs or departments, which will undoubtedly provoke dissatisfaction among the affected groups and industries. Another option is to stimulate economic growth through investments in infrastructure and innovation. Increasing employment and entrepreneurial activity could raise tax revenues in the long term. However, each of these paths carries certain risks and political trade-offs.

Reeves is expected to return to considering the introduction of an exit tax for wealthy individuals leaving the UK and may soften her proposal to raise additional funds from people who use limited liability partnerships.

Rumor has it that the Chancellor has effectively prepared two budgets: one that includes more controversial tax increases and another that includes other changes to the tax code along with a number of smaller increases. Reeves previously supported the first option but faced political pressure forcing her to choose the second.

The Financial Times was the first to report that Reeves had scrapped the planned income tax increase. The article stated that instead she might lower the thresholds at which people pay income tax at different rates. The Treasury declined to comment.

It is worth noting that this development occurred only a few days after Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government fell into a new political crisis amid claims that a senior cabinet minister might challenge him for the leadership position.

The pound reacted to all of this with a major spike in volatility, though it has not yet led to any significant changes in the technical picture.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to take the nearest resistance at 1.3180. Only this will allow them to target 1.3215, above which a breakout will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.3244 level. If the pair falls, the bears will attempt to take control of 1.3133. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3085 low, with the prospect of reaching 1.3050.

Regarding the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to think about how to take the 1.1655 level. Only this will allow them to aim for a test of 1.1680. From there, they could climb to 1.1705, but doing so without support from major players will be quite difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.1731 high. If the instrument declines, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1630. If no one steps in there, it would be reasonable to wait for an update of the 1.1605 low or to open long positions from 1.1580.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 14, 2025

.

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, from the level of 1.3187 (yesterday's daily candle close), the market may begin moving downward toward 1.3110 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line). When testing this level, an upward retracement toward 1.3148 – a historical resistance level (light-blue dashed line) is possible.

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Composite Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – downward
• Fibonacci levels – downward
• Volumes – downward
• Candlestick analysis – downward
• Trend analysis – downward
• Bollinger Bands – downward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3187 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward toward 1.3077 – the 176.4% target level (red dashed line). When testing this level, an upward retracement toward 1.3110 – the 161.8% target level (red dashed line) is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 14, 2025

.

Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may continue moving upward from the level of 1.1632 (yesterday's daily candle close), targeting 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a downward retracement movement may occur, targeting 1.1640 – the 38.2% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Composite Analysis:

• Indicator analysis – upward
• Fibonacci levels – upward
• Volumes – upward
• Candlestick analysis – upward
• Trend analysis – upward
• Bollinger Bands – upward
• Weekly chart – upward

Overall conclusion: upward trend.

Alternative scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1632 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may continue moving upward toward 1.1685 – the 14.6% retracement level (red dashed line). When testing this level, a downward retracement movement toward 1.1655 – the 50% retracement level (blue dashed line) is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 14/11/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, Gold, SP500 and Bitcoin

.

We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

Open trading account

Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 14: S&P 500 and NASDAQ plummet

.

Yesterday, US stock indices closed with losses. The S&P 500 fell by 1.66%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 2.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.55%.

The stock indices declined after four consecutive days of growth amid uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction and the overvaluation of technology companies, negatively impacting market sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell by 1.4%, with significant losses in technology companies such as SK Hynix Inc., following comments from Fed officials that weakened expectations for monetary policy easing in December. This drop concluded a week of stock gains on optimism that the end of the US government shutdown would allow for the publication of key economic data.

Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming economic reports, including inflation and employment data, hoping for greater clarity regarding the Fed's next steps. Many analysts believe that persistent inflation could force the regulator to maintain a stricter monetary policy, which would add to the pressure on the stock market. At the same time, various sectors of the economy are demonstrating different degrees of resilience. However, technology companies, which have led market growth recently, are experiencing the most pressure due to concerns about overvaluation and slowing revenue growth.

Brent crude oil jumped by 3% amid rising risks to Russian supplies due to military strikes in Ukraine and US sanctions. The British pound fell against all other major currencies in the G10 following reports that UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering shelving plans to raise income tax rates in the upcoming budget.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump is preparing for a significant reduction in tariffs aimed at addressing high food prices, along with a series of new trade agreements, seeking to allay voter concerns about the cost of goods.

Amid a decline in risk appetite, Bitcoin dropped below $97,000 and has lost more than 20% since the beginning of October. In the commodities market, gold and silver traded higher, both metals showing significant weekly gains.

St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem stated that officials should approach the issue of interest rates cautiously, as inflation exceeds the target level, while his Cleveland counterpart, Beth Hammack, noted that policy should remain quite restrictive. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said that he does not support the recent rate cut and has not yet made a decision regarding December.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,743. This will help the index gain ground and possibly pave the way for a potential rise to the new level of $6,756. An equally important objective for bulls will be to maintain control above $6,769, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downward move driven by reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,727. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,711 and open the path toward $6,697.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Market suffers major sell-off

.

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. This time-tested principle has knocked the S&P 500 out. The broad stock index found itself in the worst wave of sell-offs in a month amid the closing of long positions due to the end of the US government shutdown. Despite the government's promise to provide statistics as possible, the stock market continues to exist in a data vacuum. Investors understand that they have clearly overestimated the chances of a cut in the federal funds rate this December.

Hopes for a continuation of the Fed's monetary easing cycle served as a kind of safety cushion for the S&P 500, especially for the rapidly growing technology stocks. Confidence in the stimulus allowed investors to overlook the overvaluation of the Magnificent Seven stocks and the inability of investments in artificial intelligence to generate the necessary revenue for profitability.

As a result, the basket of rapidly growing stocks tracked by Bank of America has surged by 63% since April, significantly outperforming the broad stock index. November has brought a moment of reckoning.

Dynamics of rapidly growing stocks basket and prospects for Fed rate cuts

Doubts about the effectiveness of investing in big tech have led to portfolio diversification. Investors are shifting away from fast-growing and expensive stocks toward safe and cheaper options. The high market concentration and dependence on giants have resulted in a decline in the S&P 500.

Moreover, the situation with the September resumption of the monetary easing cycle is repeating itself. Back then, the broad stock index had surged ahead. Investors firmly believed that the Fed would aggressively cut interest rates. However, the updated FOMC forecasts indicated two acts of monetary easing before the end of 2025 and only one in 2026. The market tempered its appetite, and the S&P 500 fell. Yet, back then, belief in artificial intelligence technologies was unshakable. Bulls immediately bought the dip, and stocks continued their rally. As autumn draws to a close, the situation has changed significantly.

The division within the Fed is evident. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insist on keeping interest rates steady to prevent further inflation acceleration. Their colleagues at the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, and the San Francisco Fed, Mary Daly, have not yet made decisions regarding the December vote.

The hawks are increasingly expressing their discontent, leading to a decrease in the likelihood of a federal funds rate cut at year-end from 72% a week ago to 52%. As a result, Treasury yields are rising, global risk appetite is deteriorating, and stock prices are falling.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the formation of a 1-2-3 reversal pattern. If quotes fall below 6,550, an Expanding Wedge may emerge as well. These patterns increase the likelihood of a significant correction. The bulls' inability to hold above the fair value at 6,850 has become a reason for selling. Therefore, it makes sense to add short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Why Gold Continues to Show Strength

.

Yesterday, gold prices rose, preparing for the best week in the last month as traders grappled with uncertainty surrounding the resumption of the U.S. government after a six-week hiatus and the risk of a pause in the rate-cutting cycle.

The precious metal traded above $4,200 per ounce, reflecting a weekly increase of about 5% and recovering losses from the previous session. Expectations of another rate cut in the U.S., driven by weak economic outlooks, continue to provide tailwinds for the precious metal, which yields no interest. The five-day growth in silver exceeded 10%, approaching last month's record levels.

The rise in gold prices reflects the classic market response to instability. When the political and economic situation is murky, investors tend to turn to safe-haven assets like gold, viewing it as a way to preserve capital amid heightened risk. The six-week "shutdown" period of the U.S. government raised questions about the stability of the American economy, certainly boosting demand for the precious metal. Additionally, discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy create additional nervousness in the market. If the Fed pauses its rate-cutting cycle, it could negatively impact economic growth and further enhance gold's appeal as a defensive asset.

The increase in gold prices this week may also have been amplified by a technical model in which dealers selling cheap options are compelled to buy gold futures as a hedge. In a sluggish market, any sudden price increase can amplify buying interest and trigger a sharp rise, even without new demand from physical gold buyers.

Although last month the price of gold retreated from record levels above $4,380, it has still increased nearly 60% this year and is on track to achieve the best annual performance since 1979. Central banks have ramped up purchases, seeking to preserve value and diversify assets, while investors have poured money into the metal as a hedge against increasing fiscal instability in some of the world's largest economies.

Precious metals continue to receive support due to the Fed's prospect of injecting additional liquidity into the financial system.

Regarding the current technical picture for gold, buyers need to clear the nearest resistance at $4,186. This will allow targeting $4,249, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the area around $4,304. If gold declines, bears will attempt to take control of $4,124. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deal a severe blow to the bulls' positions, potentially driving gold down to a minimum of $4,062 with a prospect of reaching $4,008.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on November 14

.

Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000, which is a rather alarming signal for traders. Ethereum is also trading around $3,100, preparing to test the $3,000 mark soon.

The sharp decline in the stock markets pulled the cryptocurrency market down yesterday, which is not particularly surprising. According to CryptoQuant and Glassnode, sales by long-term BTC holders are rising, putting strong pressure on the market. However, there are still no buyers, which previously included various spot ETFs, so don't be surprised if we see Bitcoin at $90,000 or even $80,000 in the coming days.

The pressure exerted by long-term holders is due to several factors. First, it is the realization of profits following significant price increases in Bitcoin over the previous months. Second, macroeconomic uncertainty and concerns regarding ongoing tight monetary policies compel investors to offload risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The lack of demand from spot ETFs also exacerbates the situation. Previously, these ETFs were a significant source of liquidity and supported Bitcoin's price. However, regulatory delays and uncertainty regarding the approval of new ETFs have led to reduced investor interest and, consequently, a drop in demand.

In the current situation, Bitcoin is threatened by a further correction. If selling pressure does not ease and buyers do not return to the market, it is quite likely that BTC's price will decline further. Traders should exercise caution and consider the high risks associated with cryptocurrency trading.

Nevertheless, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive. Many experts still believe in the potential of cryptocurrencies and expect that BTC will grow again in the future. However, in the short term, heightened volatility and the possibility of further price declines should be anticipated.

Regarding the intraday strategy in the cryptocurrency market, I will also rely on any significant dips in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of a bull market in the medium term, which has not gone away.

As for short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are described below.

Bitcoin

Buying Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $97,400, targeting a move to $99,800. Around $99,800, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Buying Bitcoin can be considered at the lower boundary of $96,100 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $97,400 and $99,800.

Selling Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Bitcoin today when it reaches the entry point around $96,100, targeting a drop to $94,500. Around $94,500, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Selling Bitcoin can be considered at the upper boundary of $97,400 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $96,100 and $94,500.

Ethereum

Buying Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will buy Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,212, targeting a move to $3,350. Around $3,350, I will exit my purchases and sell immediately on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario No. 2: Buying Ethereum can be considered at the lower boundary of $3,123 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to $3,212 and $3,350.

Selling Scenario

Scenario No. 1: I will sell Ethereum today when it reaches the entry point around $3,123, targeting a drop to $2,991. Around $2,991, I will exit my sales and buy immediately on a rebound. Before selling on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario No. 2: Selling Ethereum can be considered from the upper boundary of $3,212 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back to the levels of $3,123 and $2,991.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 14. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

.

Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 154.66 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move up from the zero mark, which allowed buying the dollar in line with the trend. However, after a rise of 10 pips, pressure on the pair returned.

Despite a slight strengthening of the yen, Japan's economy is expected to contract in the third quarter of this year, marking the largest decline in several years. GDP data will be released next Monday. If this happens, it will provide Prime Minister Sanae Takachi an opportunity to prepare a significant economic stimulus package, which will likely weaken the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar.

Expectations of a GDP decline are fueled by weak domestic demand and ongoing pressures from global economic factors. Rising inflation, though less pronounced than in other developed countries, still impacts consumer spending, while exports are slowing due to trade tariffs. The proposed economic measures, which Takachi may initiate, are rumored to include increased government infrastructure investment, expanded business subsidies, and additional payments to low-income households. The goal is to stimulate domestic demand, support employment, and mitigate the negative impact of external factors. However, such measures will inevitably lead to an increase in public debt.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches the entry point around 154.63 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 155.02 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 155.02, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts back, expecting a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.39 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposite levels of 154.63 and 155.02 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 154.39 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.01, where I plan to exit my shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 154.63 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposite levels of 154.39 and 154.01 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 14. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

.

Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3145 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for selling the pound. However, the trade incurred a loss as the pair did not decline.

The statements by the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer regarding her consideration of abandoning tax increases led to buying activity for the pound, while uncertainty regarding the future actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve created additional problems for the dollar, resulting in the strengthening of the GBP/USD pair.

Since there are no economic data releases from the United Kingdom today, all attention is focused on the upcoming budget plan that Reeves will present in just over ten days. There are high hopes pinned on this document, and any hints of revisions to the financial strategy could cause fluctuations in the British pound's exchange rate. Investors will closely analyze the government's proposals concerning taxation, funding for public needs, and economic stimulation. The situation is complicated by increasing pressure on the current Conservative government from both opposition forces and the public.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3166 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3202 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3202, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts, expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Anticipate a rise in the pound today with positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3134 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise towards the opposite levels of 1.3166 and 1.3201 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound today after the 1.3134 level (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3103, where I plan to exit my shorts and open immediate longs in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pound sellers will only manifest with favorable prices. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3166 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.3134 and 1.3103 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 14. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

.

Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1633 coincided with the MACD indicator rising significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The lack of fundamental data from the U.S. and disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding further actions on the key interest rate negatively impact the dollar's position. Growing uncertainty regarding the monetary policy direction, exacerbated by conflicting statements from the Federal Open Market Committee members, is a key factor that leads traders to avoid long positions in the dollar. The ambiguity surrounding the central bank's future policy makes the American currency more volatile and less attractive to investors seeking stability and predictability.

Today, in the first half of the current session, the euro could strengthen against the dollar; however, this scenario requires encouraging reports on third-quarter Eurozone GDP growth, labor market trends, and the external trade surplus. Impressive GDP figures, indicating resilient economic growth in the region, will serve as a stimulus for further upward movement of the European currency. Market participants interpret this as a sign of the European economy's successful adaptation to existing trade issues with the U.S., reducing the need for aggressive stimulus measures from the European Central Bank. Positive trends in employment will also contribute to this. A decrease in unemployment and an increase in the number of employed individuals will create favorable conditions for boosting consumer spending and business activity, supporting the euro. The state of the labor market is an important indicator of economic health. However, there are likely to be issues with the external trade surplus, which will serve as a restraining factor for the euro's growth.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1652 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1681. At point 1.1681, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro back, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1635 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1652 and 1.1681 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1635 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1614, where I intend to exit the market and buy back immediately (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak statistics. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also intend to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1652 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decline towards the opposite levels of 1.1635 and 1.1614 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 14. Pound Sellers Do Not Give Up

.

Yesterday, several entry points were established in the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.3133 level and planned to decide whether to enter the market from there. The breakout and retest of 1.3133 led to a buy entry for the pound, resulting in a gain of more than 30 pips. In the afternoon, a false breakout around 1.3181 enabled the establishment of short positions, resulting in a 25-pip decline. Similar short positions from 1.3216 yielded a profit of about 30 pips relative to the market.

To Open Long Positions for GBP/USD:

News that the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, is considering abandoning plans to raise the basic income tax rates provided support for the pound but raised questions about how she would compensate for the budget deficit, limiting the pair's upward potential. Today, there is no statistical data from the UK, so all attention will be focused on the aforementioned issue, as in just over 10 days, Reeves is expected to present the new budget for the country for the next year. If pressure returns to the pound, only the formation of a false breakout around the support level of 1.3130 will provide an opportunity to open long positions aimed at raising the pair to the resistance level of 1.3172. A breakout and retest from the top to the bottom of this range will increase the chances of strengthening GBP/USD, triggering sellers' stop orders and providing a suitable entry point for long positions, with the possibility of reaching 1.3211. The furthest target will be around 1.3244, where I plan to take profits. In the event of a decline in GBP/USD and a lack of buying activity at 1.3130, pressure on the pair will increase, leading to a move towards the next support at 1.3086. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be an appropriate condition for opening long positions. I plan to buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from the low of 1.3052, aiming for a correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

To Open Short Positions for GBP/USD:

Sellers were active yesterday following weak UK GDP data, as well as during today's Asian trading, which significantly impacted the pair's further bullish prospects. If GBP/USD rises again, I expect the first signs of bears around the resistance level of 1.3172. The formation of a false breakout there will be sufficient to sell the pound, targeting a decline towards the support level of 1.3130. A breakout and retest from below this range will deliver a more considerable blow to buyers' positions, leading to the triggering of stop orders and opening the way to 1.3086. The farthest target will be around 1.3052, where I will take profits. In the event of an increase in GBP/USD and a lack of activity at 1.3172, buyers will have a chance for a more significant rise in the pair, potentially continuing to create a bullish market. In this case, it is better to postpone shorts until the resistance at 1.3211 is tested. I plan to open short positions there only on a false breakout. If there is no downward movement there, I will sell GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from 1.3244, aiming only for a 30-35-pip downward correction within the day.

Recommendation for Reference:

Due to the shutdown in the U.S., fresh data on the Commitment of Traders is not being published. The last data is only relevant as of September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was a decrease in short positions and an increase in long positions. Pressure on the dollar remains – especially after recent data that are sure to compel the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's policy remains restrained, indicating its clear plan to continue fighting inflation, though it has not provided much confidence for pound buyers recently. The short-term dynamics of GBP/USD will be determined by new fundamental data. In the latest COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 3,704 to 84,500, while short non-commercial positions fell by 912 to 86,464. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 627.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is around the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands

In case of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.3125 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average (defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart;
• Moving average (defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart;
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9;
• Bollinger Bands. Period – 20;
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements;
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders;
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders;
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Plan for the European Session on November 14. Euro Returns to the 1.16 Figure

.

Yesterday, several entry points were established in the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. In my morning forecast, I highlighted the level of 1.1636 and planned to decide whether to enter the market from there. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1636 led to a sell entry for the euro, resulting in a 15-pip decline of the pair. In the afternoon, a false breakout around 1.1605 enabled the establishment of long positions, after which the euro rose by more than 50 pips.

To Open Long Positions for EUR/USD:

Confusion within the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding what to do next with interest rates is putting pressure on the dollar. Yesterday's statements from Fed representatives significantly differed. Some insisted on pausing the easing cycle, while others called for supporting the economy and the labor market. Today, in the first half of the day, the euro may continue to rise, but strong data on Eurozone GDP growth for the third quarter of this year, changes in employment levels, and the external trade balance are needed to support this. In the event of a negative reaction to the initial data, I expect buyers to emerge around the new support at 1.1631, which formed at the end of yesterday. A false breakout there will provide an entry point for long positions, aiming for further recovery towards the 1.1655 resistance. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm the right decision to buy the euro with the expectation of a larger surge of the pair to 1.1678 – a new weekly high. The furthest target will be the area around 1.1703, where I will take profits. Testing this level will strengthen the euro's bullish market. If there is a decline in EUR/USD and no activity around 1.1631, pressure on the pair will increase, potentially leading to a larger sell-off. Sellers will likely reach the next interesting level at 1.1607. Only the formation of a false breakout there will be an appropriate condition to buy the euro. Long positions will be opened immediately on a rebound from 1.1582, aiming for an upward correction of 30-35 pips within the day.

To Open Short Positions for EUR/USD:

Sellers attempted to resist euro buyers yesterday, but despite statements from Fed officials, the dollar did not gain the necessary support. Today, everything will depend on the Eurozone data. Any positive data will encourage further strengthening of the euro as the bullish market continues, so be cautious with short positions. To prevent a new wave of growth, bears must protect the nearest resistance at 1.1655. Sales there will only be considered upon the formation of a false breakout, providing an entry point for short positions targeting the 1.1631 support, where, slightly below, moving averages that favor buyers are located. A breakout and consolidation below this range, along with a subsequent retest from below, will present another suitable option to open short positions, targeting the area at 1.1607. The furthest target will be around 1.1582, where I will take profits. In the case of an upward move in EUR/USD and no active bearish actions at 1.1655, it is better to postpone short positions until the larger level of 1.1678. Sales there will only be considered after a failed consolidation. I plan to open short positions immediately on a rebound from 1.1703, aiming for a 30-35-pip downward correction.

Recommendation for Reference:

Due to the shutdown in the U.S., fresh data on the Commitment of Traders is not being published. The last data is only relevant as of September 23.

In the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for September 23, there was an increase in short positions and a decrease in long ones. Expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continue to put pressure on the U.S. dollar. However, the number of euro buyers is not increasing either, as political issues in France and the risks of new inflation increases compel the ECB to act more cautiously, slowing economic growth. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions decreased by 789 to 252,472, while short non-commercial positions increased by 2,625 to 138,625. As a result, the spread between long and short positions decreased by 873.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages

Trading is above the 30-day and 50-day moving averages, indicating further euro growth.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart (H1) and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart (D1).

Bollinger Bands: In the case of a decline, the indicator's lower boundary around 1.1610 will act as support.

Description of Indicators

• Moving average (defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 50. Marked in yellow on the chart;
• Moving average (defines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise). Period – 30. Marked in green on the chart;
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). Fast EMA – period 12. Slow EMA – period 26. SMA – period 9;
• Bollinger Bands. Period – 20;
• Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain requirements;
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders;
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders;
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 14

.

The euro, pound, and other risky assets continued to rise against the U.S. dollar. Confusion among the U.S. Federal Reserve, with significantly differing statements from policymakers, has put pressure on the dollar. Growing uncertainty about the monetary policy trajectory, combined with contradictory statements from members of the Open Market Committee, undermines traders' confidence in the stability of the U.S. currency.

On one hand, there are increasing calls for further tight monetary policy to finally curb inflation, which, although slowing, remains above the target level of 2%. On the other hand, the camp advocating rate cuts is gaining strength, pointing to negative consequences for economic growth and the labor market.

Today, in the first half of the day, the euro may continue to rise, but strong data on Eurozone GDP growth, employment levels, and the external trade balance are needed to support this. Optimistic GDP figures demonstrating resilient growth in the Eurozone economy will catalyze further strengthening of the euro. Positive changes in employment levels will also play a role. A decrease in unemployment and an increase in the number of employed will create a favorable environment for rising consumer spending and business activity, which, in turn, will support the euro. A positive external trade balance reflecting higher exports than imports will be another factor contributing to the euro's growth.

As for the pound, there are no reports today for the UK, so all attention will be on Rachel Reeves' further plans for shaping the country's budget for the next financial year. Her statements about refusing to raise taxes yesterday surprised many, further confusing traders. The situation is complicated by the fact that the Conservative government is under increasing pressure from the opposition and the public. Economic difficulties, inflation, and the rising cost of living undermine trust in the ruling party. Reeves, while presenting the budget, will need to strike a balance between stimulating economic growth and reducing public debt.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is significantly above or below economists' expectations, it is best to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EURUSD Pair

• Buying on a breakout above 1.1655 may lead to an increase in the euro to around 1.1678 and 1.1703
• A sell on a breakout below 1.1631 may lead to a decline in the euro to around 1.1607 and 1.1582

For the GBPUSD Pair

• Buying on a breakout above 1.3172 may lead to an increase in the pound to around 1.3211 and 1.3244
• Sell on a breakout below 1.3130 may lead to a decline in the pound to around 1.3086 and 1.3052

For the USDJPY Pair

• Buying on a breakout above 154.68 may lead to an increase in the dollar to around 155.15 and 155.54
• A sell on a breakout below 154.40 may lead to a decline in the dollar to around 154.00 and 153.77

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EURUSD Pair

• I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.1652 on a return below this level
• I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.1623 on a return to this level

For the GBPUSD Pair

• I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.3162 on a return below this level
• I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.3125 on a return to this level

For the AUDUSD Pair

• I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 0.6561 on a return below this level
• I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 0.6524 on a return to this level

For the USDCAD Pair

• I will look for sells after a failed breakout above 1.4044 on a return below this level
• I will look for buys after a failed breakout below 1.4007 on a return to this level

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.