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GBP/USD Forecast on November 28, 2025

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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair bounced yesterday from the 1.3214 level but failed to continue rising. For most of the day, traders observed horizontal movement. Today, a new rebound from the 1.3214 and 1.3186 levels will work in favor of the pound and a resumption of growth toward the 1.3240 and 1.3294 levels. A fixation of the pair's rate below 1.3214 will allow expectations for continued decline toward 1.3186 and 1.3139.

The wave situation has turned "bullish." The last downward wave did not break the previous low, and the new upward wave broke the previous high. Thus, the trend is officially "bullish" now. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent weeks, but the bears have fully priced it in, and the news background in the U.S. also leaves much to be desired.

There was no news background on Thursday, and traders fully priced in the U.K. budget for next year, published on Wednesday. I remind you that the pound received market support, but yesterday trader activity sharply decreased, especially in the second half of the day. In the U.S., Thursday was Thanksgiving Day, so banking and stock exchanges were closed. Today, the news background is also absent, so I do not expect strong market fluctuations. Next week is difficult to call highly important, as the most important reports that are usually published in the first week of each month have been moved to a later date this time. I'm referring to Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. However, there will still be important data — the ISM business activity indices and the ADP report. There will not be much data, and the most important ones will be released later. The next FOMC meeting will take place on December 10, and it is extremely important that all labor market, unemployment, and inflation statistics are released before this date.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel and above the 1.3118–1.3140 level. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 1.3339 level, and the bulls may work on forming a trend. No emerging divergences are observed today on any indicator. A rebound from the 1.3339 level will work in favor of the dollar and a slight decline of the pair.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" in the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago — October 7. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 13,871, while short positions increased by 9,453. The gap between long and short positions is currently as follows: 94 thousand vs. 98 thousand. Virtually complete parity.

In my view, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency is in demand, but I believe this is temporary. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to ease monetary policy to stop rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. Therefore, if the Bank of England may cut the rate one more time, the FOMC may continue easing throughout 2026. The dollar weakened significantly in 2025, and 2026 may be no better for it.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

On November 28, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will have no influence on market sentiment on Friday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if quotes consolidate below 1.3214 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3186 and 1.3139. Long positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 1.3240 on the hourly chart, or on a rebound from 1.3214 and 1.3186, with targets at 1.3240 and 1.3294.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Technical Analysis on November 28, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may start moving downward from the level of 1.3237 (yesterday's daily candle close) with a target of 1.3178 — the 23.6% retracement level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3197 — the 5 EMA (thin red line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• volumes – down
• candlestick analysis – down
• trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• weekly chart – up

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3237 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward with a target of 1.3197 — the 5 EMA (thin red line).

When testing this line, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.3209 — the lower fractal (daily candle of November 27, 2025).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Technical Analysis on November 28, 2025

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Trend Analysis (Fig. 1).

On Friday, the market may start moving downward from the level of 1.1595 (yesterday's daily candle close) with the target at 1.1556 — a historical resistance level (blue dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward price movement is possible with a target of 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line).

Fig. 1 (daily chart).

Comprehensive Analysis:

• indicator analysis – down
• Fibonacci levels – down
• volumes – down
• candlestick analysis – down
• trend analysis – down
• Bollinger Bands – down
• weekly chart – down

Overall conclusion: downward trend.

Alternative scenario: Today, from the level of 1.1595 (yesterday's daily candle close), the price may begin moving downward with a target of 1.1575 — the 23.6% retracement level (yellow dashed line). When testing this level, a corrective upward movement is possible with a target of 1.1592 — the 61.8% retracement level (blue dashed line).

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

ECB maintains course amid mixed economic signals

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While the euro is trying to gather strength for a new upward move against the US dollar, Chief Economist Philip Lane believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be able to keep inflation at the target level due to falling prices for non-energy goods.

The Irish official remarked at an event in Paris that in order to maintain inflation at 2%, further slowing of non-energy inflation is necessary. He expressed confidence that this would happen, as all observed indicators suggest a continued slowdown in wage growth.

Many economists expect that the ECB will keep borrowing rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. Most officials are assured that inflation will not deviate sharply from the target level in the near future.

Earlier that same day, Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that the risk of not achieving the target level is limited.

On the one hand, overall inflation is indeed showing signs of slowing down, aided by decreasing energy prices. On the other hand, core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as energy and food prices, remains resilient. This indicates that inflationary pressure is spreading across a broader range of goods and services, complicating the ECB's task of returning to the target level.

Many economists express concerns that reliance on a slowdown in wage growth may not be sufficient to keep inflation in check. Additionally, geopolitical instability and new supply chain disruptions could provoke another surge in energy prices at any moment, undermining the ECB's efforts.

On the plus side, the eurozone economy is growing, and the unemployment rate remains at a record low, which is quite positive. However, wage growth is also slowing, allowing the ECB to maintain a wait-and-see stance regarding interest rates. Lane stated that the overall tendency to keep inflation near the target level continues to be the result of various interacting factors.

While price increases in the services sector exceed 3%, this is partly explained by wage growth still lagging behind the post-pandemic surge in inflation. ECB analysts anticipate a significant slowdown in growth rates going forward. For inflation to be at 2%, we need wages in Europe to grow by around 2.5% or 3%.

The euro reacted moderately to this ECB representative's statement.

Regarding the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on reclaiming the 1.1590 level. Only by doing so can they aim for a test at 1.1615. From there, the price could potentially rise to 1.1635, but doing this without support from major players will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the high around 1.1655. If the pair declines, significant activity from buyers is anticipated around the 1.1570 level. If no buyers are present there, it would be prudent to wait for a new low at 1.1550 or to open long positions from 1.1530.

As for the current technical outlook for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3250. This will allow them to target 1.3280, above which further movement will be quite challenging. The furthest target is around 1.3310. If the pair declines, bears will likely attempt to take control at the 1.3210 level. If successful, a break below this range would deliver a significant blow to bull positions, pushing GBP/USD down to a minimum of 1.3185, with the potential to reach 1.3155.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Thanksgiving sparks investor reflection on S&P 500's future

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Holy ground cannot remain empty. With the US markets closed for Thanksgiving, investors are shifting their focus to other regions, Asia and Europe. At the same time, traders have an opportunity to ponder the future of the S&P 500. According to the consensus forecast by Reuters experts, the broad stock index is expected to rise by 12% in 2026 due to the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the resilience of the US economy, and the ongoing strength of the technology sector.

Interestingly, in light of the closed US markets, investors prefer to buy shares of technology companies in other regions. Asian stock indices outperformed their American counterparts in 2025 due to more accommodative monetary policies. For instance, the Bank of Japan is keeping the overnight rate low and is in no hurry to raise it, despite inflation exceeding the 2% target for 43 consecutive months. The Bank of Korea has only recently begun signaling the end of its monetary expansion cycle.

Dynamics of US and Asian Stock Indices

In 2026, everything risks being turned upside down. The Fed has taken its time, but it is now prepared to lower the federal funds rate at an accelerated pace amid a cooling labor market. According to FOMC member Stephen Miran, the sharp slowdown in employment is linked to overly tight monetary policy. He voted for a 50 basis point cut in borrowing costs at the previous two FOMC meetings. Investors believe that another person from the White House, Kevin Hassett, will be a pronounced "dove." The increased chances of his appointment by Donald Trump as the chair of the Fed have weakened the US dollar.

If the US dollar index continues to decline in line with the federal funds rate, it will provide a stronger tailwind for the S&P 500. The weakness of the greenback increases foreign income for companies in the broad stock index. At the same time, the decline in Treasury yields following the Fed's rate cuts reduces their costs. Positive corporate earnings have contributed to the stock market's recovery following the April rout. There are grounds to believe that this advantage will continue to work in favor of bulls.

The Fed's Beige Book indicated that the US economy is experiencing K-shaped expansion. The gap between the wealthiest and poorest segments of the population is widening. The rich are getting richer thanks to investments in growing stock indices, while the poor are barely making ends meet. Nonetheless, massive investments in artificial intelligence technologies are boosting investments, a key component of GDP. Without such investments, the economy would look considerably worse than it does now.

Technically, on the daily chart of the S&P 500, bears have failed to reverse the trend using the Expanding Wedge pattern. However, this pattern operates in both directions. A breakout above the resistance level of 6,845 will allow for increased long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Cryptocurrency market is on pause

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After Bitcoin returned to the $92,000 level yesterday, the price failed to make an active breakout of this range. However, it is fair to note that there were also no significant selling activities from major players. This keeps the chances for further market growth alive, but likely only after the weekend. Ethereum also remains stagnant at the $3,000 mark, maintaining its potential for further correction.

While the cryptocurrency market is currently in a phase of rest, an interesting report from Syndica caught my attention. According to the data, the Solana blockchain currently dominates the market for tokenized stocks, holding over 95% market share for the past four months. In October of this year, its share even reached as high as 99%.

The explosive growth of Solana's popularity in the tokenized stock sector can be attributed to several factors. First, Solana is known for its high transaction speed and low fees, making it attractive to traders looking to quickly and efficiently trade assets. Second, the Solana ecosystem is actively developing, offering a wide range of DeFi applications and platforms that simplify the tokenization and trading of stocks.

Despite Solana's dominance, other blockchains like Ethereum and Polygon are also showing interest in the tokenized stock market. However, their shares remain insignificant compared to Solana. This disparity may be due to higher fees and slower transaction speeds on those blockchains.

Tokenized stocks are digital equivalents of traditional company shares traded on the blockchain. They allow investors access to stocks that were previously unavailable due to geographical or regulatory restrictions. Additionally, tokenization can simplify the trading process and reduce costs associated with traditional brokerage services.

Trading recommendations:

Regarding the technical picture for Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $92,000 level, which opens a direct path to $92,500, and from there, it is only a short distance to $99,400. The furthest objective is around $101,400; surpassing this level would indicate attempts to return to a bull market. In the event of a decline, buyers are expected at the $89,200 level. A return below this area could quickly push BTC down to around $86,500, with the most distant target at $83,900.

For Ethereum, clear consolidation above the $3,068 level opens the way to $3,193. The furthest target is around $3,317; breaking above this level would signify strengthening bullish sentiment in the market and renewed buyer interest. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at the $2,947 level. A drop below this area could swiftly bring ETH down to around $2,845, with the most distant support at $2,732.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance levels where either a price slowdown or active growth is expected;

- Green lines indicate the 50-day moving average;

- Blue lines indicate the 100-day moving average;

- Light green lines indicate the 200-day moving average.

Typically, a crossover or price test of these moving averages either halts market momentum or sets a new directional impulse.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock market on November 28: S&P 500 and NASDAQ on pause for Thanksgiving

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Yesterday, the US market was closed for Thanksgiving. However, futures for American stock indices continued to trade, losing momentum despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which allowed the global stock market to achieve its best performance since June of this year.

Futures and options trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was suspended due to technical issues. The disruption specifically affected the trading of futures on US Treasury bonds and contracts on the S&P 500 index. Trading on the EBS currency platform was also interrupted due to the CME's outage.

The MSCI All Country World Index showed little change. Nevertheless, the index maintained a 3% gain for the week. Asian indices fell by 0.2%, marking the first monthly decline since March.

As I mentioned earlier, many stock indices rose over the week as investors strengthened their expectations for a Fed rate cut. Futures indicate about an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut next month and three additional cuts by the end of 2026. However, despite optimism surrounding potential rate cuts, a sense of caution persists in the market. Investors are closely monitoring macroeconomic statistics, particularly the lack of data on inflation and employment, which complicates decision-making processes.

"Asian equities are taking a breather after a very strong run," strategists at Global X Management said. "A lot of the recent strength came from a sharp reversal in positioning - softer US data and relief that the AI unwind wasn't turning into something more disorderly."

Regarding the CME, trading was suspended due to cooling issues at one of the data centers, according to an exchange representative. This affected contracts, including those for US crude oil, gasoline, and palm oil, traded on Bursa Malaysia through the CME electronic platform.

Silver settled around $54 per ounce, just below the record high set in October. Gold experienced its fourth monthly gain amid growing expectations of another rate cut in the United States. Rate reductions typically increase the value of the non-yielding metal. The price of Brent crude oil held steady above $63 per barrel, indicating a fourth consecutive monthly decline. At their meeting on Sunday, OPEC+ countries are expected to maintain their plan to suspend production growth until early 2026.

Regarding the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,837. This would help the index gain value and pave the way for a potential rally to a new level of $6,842. Another priority for bulls will be to maintain control over the $6,854 mark, which would strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downturn amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves around $6,819. A break below this level would quickly push the trading instrument back to $6,801 and open the way to $6,784.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

Due to low volatility, the tests of the levels I marked did not occur in the second half of the day. As a result, I was left without trades.

Today, the yen declined against the U.S. dollar on news that the Tokyo Consumer Price Index fell from 2.8% to 2.7%. Conversely, unemployment in Japan remained at 2.6%, despite economists' expectations of a decrease. On the one hand, the slowing inflation in Japan's capital may indicate reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten monetary policy. It should be noted that for a long time, inflation has been a key factor holding the central bank back from abandoning its ultra-loose monetary policy. A decrease in the growth rate of prices, even if slight, may give the BoJ more room for maneuver and delay interest rate hikes.

The drop in the yen is likely due to traders interpreting the slowdown in inflation as a signal that the BoJ will not rush to change policy at its December meeting. This, in turn, reduces the yen's appeal against the dollar. At the same time, stable unemployment may somewhat mitigate the negative impact on the yen, as it indicates that the economy is not in a recession after all.

In the coming days, the yen is likely to remain under pressure until new economic data emerges that can clarify the situation.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching an entry point around 156.55 (green line on the chart), with a target at 156.94 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 156.94, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). The best time to return to buying the pair is during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the price 156.16, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 156.55 and 156.94.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 156.16 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.76 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.55 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 156.16 and 155.76.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.3238 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move upward from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the pound, which resulted in a 17-pip rise.

Today, significant movements in the GBP/USD pair are not expected, as there are no UK reports in the first half of the day. However, despite the absence of macroeconomic news from the UK, one should consider the indirect impact of events in the Eurozone and the USA. Any surprises in German data or US data may provoke fluctuations in the euro, which in turn will affect the British pound through cross rates. Technical analysis indicates the pair is consolidating in a narrow range, especially given the low trading volume due to the U.S. holiday weekend. Overall, until new drivers for movement appear, a relatively stable situation in the GBP/USD market can be expected, with a focus on continuing the upward trend formed after the UK budget publication this Wednesday.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching an entry point around 1.3248 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.3275 (thicker green line on the chart). At point 1.3275, I plan to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Strong pound growth is unlikely. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case the price tests 1.3215 for two consecutive times while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3248 and 1.3275.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell the pound today after updating the level to 1.3215 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3192 level, where I plan to exit my shorts and open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Pound sellers are unlikely to show significant strength today. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3248 twice in a row, as the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decrease to opposing levels of 1.3215 and 1.3192.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on November 28. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1599 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1599 coincided with the MACD being in overbought territory, prompting the implementation of Scenario 2 to sell the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 10 pips.

In the first half of the day, market attention will be focused on several significant economic reports from Germany. The key focus will be on changes in retail sales and unemployment dynamics, including the overall unemployment rate. Following that, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released, along with a speech by the head of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel. It is expected that the retail sales report will reflect consumer spending patterns. An increase in this indicator would be favorable for the euro. Unemployment data will provide insights into the current state of the labor market. Inflation dynamics will also be significant; however, only very high price growth would support the euro.

Finally, Nagel's speech will prompt investors to look for signals on future monetary policy, especially amid recent debates about the potential end of the interest rate-cutting cycle. His remarks about inflation and Germany's economic prospects will impact the value of the euro.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy euros today at a price around 1.1599 (green line on the chart), with a target price of 1.1628. At point 1.1628, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Buying the euro can only be expected after good data. Important! Before purchasing, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price tests 1.1575 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.1599 and 1.1628.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell euros after reaching the level of 1.1575 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1553, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price tests 1.1599 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a drop to opposing levels of 1.1575 and 1.1553.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on November 28

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Sellers of the dollar paused yesterday in the absence of new guidelines. Today, in the first half of the day, a considerable amount of important German data is expected, which could lead to a surge in volatility. The figures for changes in retail trade volume, the number of unemployed, the unemployment rate, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be released.

These indicators will be key in assessing the state of the German economy and will determine short-term market sentiment. Retail trade figures are expected to provide insights into consumer activity, while unemployment data will shed light on the current employment situation. Inflation, as indicated by the CPI, will be closely monitored, as the European Central Bank is vigilant regarding price pressures in the Eurozone. Joachim Nagel's speech will also attract significant attention. Traders will be looking for hints regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of recent discussions about the end of the interest rate-cutting cycle.

Only very positive reports from Germany will help the euro return to growth today. Otherwise, pressure on risk assets may increase by the end of the week. If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is advisable to rely on a Mean Reversion strategy. If the data is much higher or lower than economists' expectations, the Momentum strategy would be best.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

Buying on a breakout above 1.1591 may lead to an increase in the euro to the region of 1.1613 and 1.1635.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 1.1575 may lead to a decline in the euro to the region of 1.1550 and 1.1527.

For the GBP/USD Pair

Buying on a breakout above the level of 1.3245 may lead to an increase in the pound to the region of 1.3277 and 1.3310.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 1.3220 may lead to a decline in the pound to the region of 1.3180 and 1.3150.

For the USD/JPY Pair

Buying on a breakout above the level of 156.55 may lead to an increase in the dollar to the region of 156.87 and 157.16.

Selling on a breakout below the level of 156.25 may lead to a sell-off of the dollar to the region of 155.80 and 155.54.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Return):

For the EUR/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.1599 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.1575 on a return to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

I will look for short positions after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.3247 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.3221 on a return to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6544 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6525 on a return to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

I will look for shorts after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4050 on a return below this level.

I will look for longs after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4021 on a return to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Recommendations for Trading in the Cryptocurrency Market on November 28

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Bitcoin, trading around $91,000-$92,000, maintains a positive outlook and has good potential for further correction. However, given the weekend conditions in the U.S. and low trading volume, it is unlikely that major players will make their presence felt until the beginning of next week. Ethereum has also clearly established its position above $3,000.

According to a report from Glassnode, the breakthrough of supply clusters from large buyers is a key condition for restoring momentum to a new peak. The chart clearly shows that the nearest clusters are at $93,000–$96,000, a breakthrough of which will open the way to the $100,000–$108,000 range, where active seller resistance is expected.

It seems that the $108,000 mark will be pivotal in breaking the current bearish market, which has not gone away. At the first normal pressure from large players, the decline of both Bitcoin and Ethereum may resume with even greater force than before.

Regarding intraday strategies for the cryptocurrency market, I will continue to act on any significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, anticipating the continuation of the bullish market in the mid-term, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $91,700, with a target price of $93,300. Near $93,300, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: I can buy Bitcoin at the lower boundary of $90,800 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $91,700 and $93,300.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Bitcoin today upon reaching the entry point around $90,800, with a target decline to $89,400. Near $89,400, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: I can sell Bitcoin at the upper boundary of $91,700 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $90,800 and $89,400.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario 1: I will buy Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $3,030, with a target price of $3,080. Near $3,080, I will exit the buys and sell immediately on the rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Indicator is above zero.

Scenario 2: I can buy Ethereum at the lower boundary of $2,995 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $3,030 and $3,080.

Sell Scenario

Scenario 1: I will sell Ethereum today upon reaching the entry point around $2,995, with a target decline to $2,943. Near $2,943, I will exit the sales and buy immediately on the rebound. Before selling on the breakout, I need to ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and that the Awesome Indicator is below zero.

Scenario 2: I can sell Ethereum at the upper boundary of $3,030 if there is no market reaction to its breakout in the opposite direction of the levels at $2,995 and $2,943.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Chainlink is still following its bullish bias today, although there is potential for a limited correction.

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[Chainlink]

With both EMAs forming a Golden Cross, then the overall bias direction of the Chainlink cryptocurrency is still strengthening

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 13.72443

2. Resistance. 1 : 13.58148

3. Pivot : 13.40688

4. Support. 1 : 13.26393

5. Support. 2 : 13.08933

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price successfully breaks out and closes above 13.40688, there is potential to test the level at 13.58148.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 13.58148 is also broken, then Chainlink will try to test the level at 13.72443.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Chainlink declines and breaks down below 13.08933.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 13.33489

EMA(200): 13.08961

RSI(14) : 40.15

Economic News Release Agenda:

Due to the national holiday of Black Friday, there will be no economic data releases during the U.S. session tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Although there is potential for a correction, the overall bias for Cardano is still strengthening toward its nearest resistance

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[Cardano]

With the appearance of a Bearish Divergence on the RSI indicates potential for a limited correction in the bullish bias of Cardano, although the overall direction of the cryptocurrency's bias remains upward.

Key Levels

1. Resistance. 2 : 0.44529

2. Resistance. 1 : 0.44021

3. Pivot : 0.43298

4. Support. 1 : 0.42790

5. Support. 2 : 0.42067

Tactical Scenario:

Positive Reaction Zone: If the price of Cardano breaks out and closes above 0.43298, there is potential for it to continue strengthening to 0.44021.

Momentum Extension Bias: If 0.44021 is successfully broken, Cardano may continue its strength up to 0.44529.

Invalidation Level / Bias Revision:

The upside bias weakens if the price of Cardano falls and breaks down below 0.42067.

Technical Summary:

EMA(50) : 0.43018

EMA(200): 0.42529

RSI(14) : 34.50 + Bearish Divergent

Economic News Release Agenda:

Due to the national holiday of Black Friday, there will be no economic data releases during the U.S. session tonight.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on November 28? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday, all from Germany. It is important to remember that Germany is considered the "locomotive" of the European economy—a "locomotive" that has been struggling in recent years. Therefore, reports from Germany on key indicators can be considered conditionally important. Today, data on unemployment, inflation, and retail sales will be published. These will not be released all at once, so throughout the first half of the day, the market may react to the incoming information.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

No fundamental events are scheduled for Friday. However, recent speeches by representatives of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England have not provided traders with anything to ponder. It is worth noting that the ECB has effectively achieved its goal of stabilizing inflation around 2%, so there is no need to change monetary policy. The BoE is close to lowering the key rate for the fourth time this year, but inflation remains high, so we should not expect rapid further policy easing. As for the Fed, everything depends on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation data for October and November, which have not yet been released.

General Conclusions:

During the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs are likely to trend upward, as an ascending trend has begun in both cases. The euro has a great trading area at 1.1571-1.1584, around which several buy signals were formed over the past two days. The British pound has a level at 1.3259 and an area at 1.3203-1.3211. Volatility on Friday may once again be low.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on November 28? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair corrected slightly on Thursday, retracing from Wednesday's highs. There were no macroeconomic or fundamental factors present, so traders found no grounds for new purchases of the British currency, which has been struggling to rise as of late. We continue to believe that a global downward correction is underway on the daily timeframe, and therefore, expect its completion and the resumption of the upward trend. The UK budget is no longer exerting pressure on the British pound, as it has already been accepted and the market has successfully absorbed its negative aspects over the past two months. However, December is approaching, which means that the market will finally learn the labor market, unemployment, and inflation data for October and November. This data could serve as a starting point for a new prolonged decline of the American currency, as we reiterate that a global upward trend remains in place.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed yesterday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price bounced off the 1.3259 level, then dropped to the 1.3203-1.3211 area over several hours. Thus, novice traders could open short positions that yielded about 30 pips in profit. The bounce from the area of 1.3203-1.3211 was a buy signal and could also have been worked on. For the remainder of the day, the pair only rose, meaning that the trade could have been closed with a profit of 20-25 pips.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has completed another downward trend. An upward movement has begun, and we hope that it will not end as quickly as all previous trends on the hourly timeframe. As we mentioned, there are no global reasons for a prolonged rise in the dollar, so in the mid-term, we expect movement only to the upside. The correction/flat on the daily timeframe may not yet be complete, but any local trend on the hourly timeframe is potentially a resumption of the global trend.

On Friday, novice traders can expect the formation of new trading signals near the level of 1.3259 or in the area of 1.3203-1.3211. Movements today may once again be weak, as there will be a lack of macroeconomic context.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently occur at the levels of 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3211, 1.3259, 1.3329-1.3331, 1.3413-1.3421, 1.3466-1.3475, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Friday, no important events or reports are scheduled in the UK or the US. Thus, volatility may be at a standstill today.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on November 28? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Trade Analysis for Thursday:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility, mostly sideways, on Thursday. Yesterday morning, we warned that such movements were to be expected, as there were no scheduled macroeconomic or fundamental events on Thursday. Only in the morning did a consumer confidence report come out in Germany, but it held almost no significance for traders, as it coincided with forecasted values. Thus, the formation of an upward trend on the hourly timeframe continues, but, as we can see, the European currency cannot currently display growth in the manner the dollar has shown in recent months, that is, rising out of nowhere. Therefore, the movements of the pair now depend on events and reports.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe on Thursday, exactly one trading signal was generated. At the beginning of the American trading session, the price bounced off the 1.1571-1.1584 area but rose only about 10 pips. Once again, we remind you that if market volatility is low, it does not matter what levels are available to traders or what signals are formed. This morning, the pair is again near the 1.1571-1.1584 area, so another bounce may occur.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has begun another attempt at rising. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop remains very weak for the US dollar; thus, the pair can still show declines only on technical grounds—the flat on the daily timeframe remains relevant. However, we expect its completion and a renewal of the upward trend of 2025. Volatility in the market remains low.

On Friday, novice traders can again trade from the area of 1.1571-1.1584. A price consolidation above this area will allow for opening long positions with a target of 1.1655-1.1666. A new bounce from this area will allow for opening longs once again. A price consolidation below this area will make short positions relevant with a target of 1.1531.

On the 5-minute timeframe, levels to consider include 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, and 1.1970-1.1988. On Friday, no important events are scheduled in the Eurozone or the US, but Germany will have four interesting reports. Germany is just one country in the Eurozone, but it is the "locomotive" of the European economy. Therefore, the market reaction to inflation, retail sales, and the unemployment level may follow.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Overview. November 28. A Move by the Chancellor of the Exchequer

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday and Thursday, driven by the publication of the UK budget for the 2026 financial year. Traders reacted positively to news of tax increases in the UK, as these measures are likely to help avoid budget deficits and other financial problems. However, we cannot overlook one important question: the alignment between British voters' expectations and reality.

It's important to note that the key disagreements regarding the budget revolved around the Labour Party's promise not to raise taxes during the election campaign. However, the party received such a "legacy" after 14 years of Conservative rule that it became evident that not raising taxes was not an option. This is how the "bad streak" for the British pound began. Both the euro and the pound traded calmly within sideways channels on the daily timeframe, but the pound has fallen significantly more than the euro over the past two months, primarily due to the issues surrounding the British budget. Several statements from Rachel Reeves triggered sell-offs of the sterling, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer struggled to decide whether to raise taxes and risk losing the next election or not raise taxes and accept a "hole" in the budget.

In addition to raising approximately 10 different taxes, the income tax took center stage. In our opinion, this tax is the largest source of revenue for the budget and affects all citizens of the country. Reeves did not wish to raise it, but payments for this tax will increase nonetheless. Reeves made a strategic move. Instead of raising the tax rate, she "froze" the limits for tax brackets. What does this mean?

It is no secret that, based on total income, Brits pay taxes at different rates. The higher the income, the higher the tax rate. Thus, "freezing" the limits that separate tax brackets effectively means that wage growth will forcibly push many Brits from a lower tax rate to a higher one. Wage growth in the UK has been consistently around 5% over the past year. Imagine how many taxpayers in Britain are in the "marginal" zone. All of them will transition into a wealthier category either this year or next and will pay taxes at a higher rate.

However, for traders, the resolution of the budget issue is good news, and as a result, the British pound has experienced two consecutive days of upward movement. We continue to believe that the GBP/USD pair has far more global fundamental factors for growth than concerns about the British budget. Yet, bulls in the market have exhibited relative passivity lately. Consequently, even the growth observed now is cause for celebration.

It should be remembered that the European currency could initiate a new wave of a global upward trend. If so, the British pound could also begin a new upward trajectory. And there are plenty of reasons for the dollar to fall.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the past five trading days stands at 86 pips, which is considered "average." Therefore, on Friday, November 28, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3154 and 1.3326. The higher linear regression channel is directed downward, but only due to a technical correction on higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone six times in recent months, forming another "bullish" divergence.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3184
• S2 – 1.3123
• S3 – 1.3062

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3245
• R2 – 1.3306
• R3 – 1.3367

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume its upward trend for 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar, so we do not expect the American currency to appreciate. Therefore, long positions with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3428 remain relevant for the near term, when the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small short positions can be considered targeting 1.3062 based on technical grounds. Occasionally, the American currency experiences corrections (in a global sense), but for trend-based strengthening, it requires real signs of the end of the trade war or other positive global factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is currently strong;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are targeted levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) denote the probable price channel within which the pair will trade in the coming day, based on current volatility metrics;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Overview. November 28. Euro's Growth Is Sluggish, Bulls Need a Boost

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The EUR/USD currency pair rose slowly but steadily on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the macroeconomic background did not support the rise of the European currency; however, the bulls made an effort and pushed the pair up by several dozen pips. On Thursday, the macroeconomic background was completely absent, yet the euro appreciated by another couple of dozen pips. Thus, the euro is growing, albeit with great difficulty. The question is, how long will such a struggle for growth continue?

We continue to expect only growth for the EUR/USD pair in the medium term, but the market has been in a total flat pattern for the past five months. Therefore, the number one task is to wait for the flat to end. A couple of weeks ago, the price dropped twice to the lower boundary of the sideways channel at 1.1400-1.1830, allowing for long positions to be opened. However, at the same time, no clear buy signal emerged, such as a retest of the 1.1400 level or a liquidity sweep at that level. The euro is rising now, but the basics of technical analysis tell us that as long as the last high has not been broken, the downward trend cannot be considered finished. Therefore, the current growth of the euro may be the beginning of a long and strong upward movement, or it could be just another "noise" within the sideways channel on the daily timeframe.

Our expectations remain unchanged—only the decline of the U.S. dollar. It should be remembered that 2026 is approaching, and this year the Federal Reserve may conduct monetary easing in isolation, as the European Central Bank has already completed its easing cycle, and the Bank of England is unlikely to significantly lower the key rate next year. The UK needs to address the high inflation issue before lowering rates. The latest report signaled a slowdown in inflation, but this is only for one month, not a trend. Thus, the Fed will likely cut its rates much more aggressively than the ECB or the BoE. Furthermore, given that Jerome Powell will step down next year and a new head will be appointed by Trump to take his place, monetary easing may occur much more rapidly than many expect now.

In the last two months, the market has desperately ignored all "bearish" factors for the dollar. However, we want to emphasize that this will not last forever. The market remains in a flat pattern, which explains the lack of reaction to many fundamental events. Nonetheless, we believe that the market will not forget about these events. The flat is a time for forming new positions. Therefore, market makers are preparing for a new trend. Frankly, it is difficult for us to envision a bullish dollar trend under the current circumstances in the U.S.

On the 4-hour timeframe, the pair remains above the moving average, which allows for expectations of further upward movement. From our perspective, it is advisable not to disregard the current buying opportunities, as we may be witnessing the beginning of a new phase of the global upward trend.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of November 28 is 55 pips, which is considered "average." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1542 and 1.1652 on Friday. The upper linear regression channel is directed downwards, signaling a downward trend, but in fact, the flat continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator entered the oversold zone twice in October, which may trigger a new phase of the upward trend in 2025.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1566
• S2 – 1.1536
• S3 – 1.1505

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1597
• R2 – 1.1627
• R3 – 1.1658

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair remains below the moving average, but the upward trend persists across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for several months. The global fundamental background continues to exert a strong influence on the U.S. dollar. Recently, the dollar has been rising, but the reasons for this movement may be purely technical. Given the price is below the moving average, small short positions targeting 1.1505 can be considered on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant with a target of 1.1800 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe).

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is currently strong;
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
• Murray levels are targeted levels for movements and corrections;
• Volatility levels (red lines) denote the probable price channel within which the pair will trade in the coming day, based on current volatility metrics;
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is approaching in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. The EUR/USD Pair Targets the Round Level of 1.1600

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As Thursday came to a close, the EUR/USD pair remained in a sideways range, with buyers unable to decisively overcome the round level of 1.1600.

Despite the bullish momentum remaining intact, with oscillators mixed and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) in positive territory, this suggests further consolidation within the current range.

The EUR/USD pair resumed its upward trend after breaching the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1570, but it is not yet ready for further growth. When the bulls break above the round 1.1600 level, buyers will face resistance at the 50-day SMA around 1.1622 and the 100-day SMA at levels of 1.1645, with the next resistance being the round level of 1.1700.

Conversely, if the euro drops below 1.1560, where the 9-day EMA is currently situated, the next demand area will be the round level of 1.1500. If prices fall below this level, the next target for the decline will be the November low at 1.1470, set on November 5. After that, the primary support will be the 200-day simple moving average near the mark of 1.1426.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What Taxes is Rachel Reeves Increasing? Part 2

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Let's move on to the next tax—the dividend income tax. Starting April 6 next year, all rates will increase by 2%. Economists point out that for many small business owners, these 2% are significant. Previously, directors of small enterprises and firms could pay themselves a minimal salary while receiving the rest of their earnings as dividends, but now they will have to pay more taxes on that amount. An additional 2% tax on the company's overall income is quite substantial.

The next tax is on the luxury housing tax. From 2028, owners of luxury apartments and houses will pay an annual rate on their property. The tax will apply to properties valued at over £2 million. The minimum payment amount will be £2,500 per year, while the maximum will be £7,500. This is not the only tax on luxury property in the UK. There is already a municipal tax on such property that remains unchanged. What was one tax has now become two.

Capital gains tax will also see an increase. Starting from 2026, the tax rate on capital gains will be raised to 18%. In simpler terms, the sale price of a business will rise. Previously, an entrepreneur could pay tax at a reduced rate (10%) if they had owned the company and worked in it for a sufficient amount of time. From 2026, they will pay the full 18%.

Inheritance tax mirrors the income tax. While the tax rate itself has not increased, the thresholds for entering various tax brackets have been frozen. In simpler terms, prices are constantly rising, which means the actual tax payments will also increase as the property's value rises. Many exemptions related to this tax have been removed.

It should also be noted that there is a new tax on electric vehicles. In addition to the existing excise duty on all vehicles, an excise will be introduced for "efficient and beneficial" electric and hybrid vehicles. This will be set at 3 pence per mile and is intended to double the funding for road repairs in the UK.

The tax on rental income has been increased by 2%. The tax on savings income has also increased by 2%. The dividend tax credit for non-residents has been abolished. The income tax deduction for unreimbursed expenses for home workers and self-employed individuals has also been eliminated.

Based on all of the above, UK taxes have risen significantly, although many primarily affect wealthy Brits. However, it is important to remember that the majority of tax revenue comes from the lower and middle classes, who outnumber the wealthy in any country.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the U.S. currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. Currently, the formation of the upward wave set may continue. I expect that from the current positions, the third wave of this set will continue, which can be either "c" or "3." At this moment, I remain in long positions with targets around the 1.1740 mark.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in "4" appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. In the short term, one can expect the formation of wave "3" or "c" with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective orders like Stop Loss.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What Taxes is Rachel Reeves Increasing?

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In recent months, the British pound has been under pressure amid debate over the UK budget for the next financial year. Personally, I do not understand the panic in the markets, and I even allow for the possibility that the pound's decline was not due to uncertainty about the budget and taxes. However, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has repeatedly caused market participants to panic and sell the British currency with her statements about taxes and the budget. Thus, a logical pattern emerges without difficulty.

To begin this extensive topic, it is essential to note that the Labour Party promised British voters during the election campaign not to raise taxes. On Wednesday, it became known that the promise was not to "not raise taxes overall," but rather "not to raise income tax only." We will start our review with this particular tax.

All income tax rates in the 2026 budget remained unchanged. The tax-free allowance is £12,570; the basic rate applies to income up to £50,270; the higher rate applies to income up to £125,140; and the additional rate applies to income over £125,140. It seems that what was promised has been delivered. But it's not that simple. I think it's no secret that British inflation is currently much closer to 4% than to the Bank of England's target of 2%. Therefore, even if we use a 2% annual price growth in calculations, prices are still rising. Wages are also increasing, often at much higher rates. The latest wage growth report showed a 4.6% increase.

Accordingly, logically, the thresholds for entering different tax brackets should be updated annually. However, this is precisely the situation in which the government benefits greatly from doing nothing and pretending that such steps are unnecessary. In practice, annual incomes for British households are rising, meaning they transition from lower to higher tax brackets and end up paying more. This is how more taxes can be collected without raising the tax rates.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD:

Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. In recent months, the market has paused, but Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve remain significant factors in the future decline of the U.S. currency. The targets for the current segment of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. Currently, the formation of the upward wave set may continue. I expect that from the current positions, the third wave of this set will continue, which can be either "c" or "3." At this moment, I remain in long positions with targets around the 1.1740 mark.

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave structure has become complex. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in "4" appears quite complete. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume its formation with initial targets around the 38 and 40 figures. In the short term, one can expect the formation of wave "3" or "c" with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% on the Fibonacci scale.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often lead to changes.
2. If there is uncertainty about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% certainty in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective orders like Stop Loss.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Thanksgiving Day, Secondary Reports, and Awaiting Major Releases

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It is U.S. Thanksgiving Day, so American trading platforms are closed. Considering the short day on November 28 (which coincides with "Black Friday"), it can be stated that traders have gone on mini-vacations that will end on December 1. Ahead of the extended weekend, buyers attempted to enter the 16-figure16-figure area, testing the intermediate resistance level at 1.1610, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the four-hour chart. However, this attempt failed—the sellers took the initiative, and the pair drifted amid an almost empty economic calendar.

Wednesday—important macroeconomic reports were supposed to be released in the United States, but their publication was delayed by a few weeks due to the shutdown. These reports included the core PCE index (one of the key inflation indicators) and the preliminary estimate of U.S. GDP growth in the third quarter. However, the inflation report has been postponed to December 5, and the preliminary GDP estimate has been completely canceled—the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the second estimate on December 23 and the final estimate in January of next year.

Traders in the EUR/USD pair were left empty-handed and decided to adopt a wait-and-see stance. Overall, bullish sentiment prevails for the pair—primarily due to the strengthening "dovish" expectations for further Federal Reserve actions. Market participants are almost certain that at the next meeting—scheduled for December—the central bank will again lower the interest rate by 25 basis points. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of this scenario is 85%.

On the side of the "doves" are the soft comments from the President of the New York Fed, John Williams, and several other representatives of the Fed, including Stephen Miran, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman (members of the Board of Governors), as well as Mary Daly, the President of the San Francisco Fed.

Additionally, some macroeconomic reports published in the U.S. have also supported the "dovish" scenario. For example, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index reached a multi-month low, dropping to 88.7. The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index plummeted to -15 (with an expected decline to -5), and retail sales showed very weak growth (total sales increased by 0.2%, excluding autos, by 0.3%).

On Wednesday, "second-tier" reports were published—Unemployment Claims and Durable Goods Orders. Despite their "green" appearance, these releases also failed to support the U.S. currency.

The initial jobless claims figure came in at 216,000, marking a seven-month low. In the moment, the dollar reacted positively to the release (the EUR/USD pair updated its intraday low), but as we know, the devil is in the details. The report notes that the number of continuing claims continues to rise; this upward trend has persisted for three consecutive weeks. This indicates weak hiring dynamics: laid-off individuals are remaining unemployed for longer.

The Durable Goods Orders report also has its flaws. On one hand, the release came out in the "green zone" against relatively weak forecasts. For example, durable goods orders increased by 0.5% in September, while the forecast was 0.3%. On the other hand, the indicator's growth rate slowed from the previous month's 2.9%. Additionally, the indicator's growth was partially "artificial" due to defense contracts. More important segments for long-term economic momentum (business investments, equipment purchases) showed weak dynamics.

Therefore, the Durable Goods Orders report did not become an ally for the greenback or for sellers of EUR/USD. The market remains almost certain that the Fed will opt for an additional 25-basis-point rate cut next month.

However, for the northern trend to develop, buyers of EUR/USD require additional information to drive further growth. A catalyst is needed to allow the bulls to consolidate within the 16-figure area and ultimately break through the resistance level at 1.1650 (the lower boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart).

Unfortunately, the remainder of the current week is empty. However, the next week is rich in events. We will learn the November values of the ISM indexes, the ADP employment report, and the September value of the core PCE index.

Ahead of these significant releases, EUR/USD traders are unlikely to open large positions—neither in favor of the dollar nor against it. Therefore, until the end of the current week, the pair is likely to trade within a narrow price range of 1.1560–1.1610 (the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands on H4), in the backdrop of Thanksgiving Day and an almost empty economic calendar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Rising Inflation in Australia Leaves the RBA No Room for Another Rate Cut

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Inflation in Australia is on the rise again, and this is perhaps the most important news that will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's stance on rates and the Australian dollar's exchange rate. After inflation rose to 3.2% in the third quarter, the highest level in more than a year, forecasts for the RBA's rate changed. Before the publication, the market confidently predicted further rate cuts, but afterward, the likelihood of such a move decreased.

The RBA did not disappoint—at the beginning of November, the rate was maintained at 3.6%, but this decision appeared to be only a temporary pause. However, on Wednesday, the October inflation index was published, showing an increase to 3.8% compared to 3.6% in September, providing grounds to assert that inflation will clearly remain above the target range in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, the wage index exceeds the inflation level, and the economy is recovering at a faster pace than anticipated.

What does all this imply? It suggests that until the end of January, meaning until the publication of the fourth-quarter inflation data, a rate cut by the RBA is ruled out. If other indicators support optimism about the state of the economy, the market will be forced to conclude that the rate cuts in this cycle may be over. It is unclear whether anyone in the RBA leadership will voice this thought, but we must proceed from the current realities—the current rate of 3.6% does not hinder economic growth, while inflation is rising —and the next step after the pause may not be a rate cut but an increase.

Essentially, the Aussie finds itself in a clearly bullish situation right now. There is no reason for the Australian dollar to continue falling, while there are increasingly more reasons for a resumption of growth. U.S. data could hinder the growth of AUD/USD, but that data is also contradictory. Durable goods orders in September increased significantly more than expected, a factor in favor of a recovery in the industrial sector and indicative of strong consumer activity. However, the latest regional indices of industrial activity have come in much worse than expected. The same is true for inflation—players have long awaited the effects of increased import tariffs to finally reach the consumer sector; data has yet to emerge due to the shutdown, but interestingly, the yield on 5-year TIPS bonds, which serve as a great indicator of inflationary sentiments in the business environment, has fallen to a 6-month low. This suggests that businesses are also not anticipating rising inflation. Consequently, the dollar does not have strong grounds to resume growth, at least not until the end of the year.

Two CFTC reports published since the last review have slightly improved the overall positioning for AUD, but the main factor driving the upward reversal in the calculated price is the change in current yields following the inflation data release. The dynamics of the calculated price increase the likelihood of further growth for AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD pair reached the resistance zone of 0.6530/50, as we had expected in the previous review. While we anticipated a resumption of declines after reaching this level, the overall picture now looks considerably different. A pullback to the support level of 0.6410/30 has become significantly less likely, and we anticipate attempts to break above the 0.6430/50 zone, targeting 0.6620/30.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The Dollar Faces Its Fears

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Why isn't EUR/USD rising? The Federal Reserve will be one of the few central banks to lower rates in 2026. The influence of Hassett is pressuring the U.S. dollar, while hopes for peace in Ukraine should support all European currencies, including the euro. Nevertheless, the main currency pair is moving in a "two steps forward, one step back" mode. Perhaps the crux lies in the greenback's ability to confront its fears?

Dynamics of Swap Rate Expectations for the Fed

After the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate, it adopted "hawkish" rhetoric. Most likely, the cycle of monetary expansion is over. The same can be said for the European Central Bank. The acceleration of Australian inflation to 3.3% provides grounds for speculation about tightening monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The Bank of Japan is also not backing down from normalization. Rachel Reeves' budget proposal reduces the likelihood of major actions by the Bank of England at the end of 2025.

The Fed will have to lower rates almost in isolation, while other central banks will either hold them steady or even raise them. This is unpleasant news for the U.S. dollar. Moreover, the futures market is increasing the anticipated scale of monetary expansion as the chances grow that Kevin Hassett will lead the Fed. If another "dove" like Stephen Miran joins the FOMC, it's game over.

Dynamics of Candidates for the Fed Chair Position

In such circumstances, the U.S. dollar should be falling sharply. The USD index is indeed heading toward its worst week in the last four months. However, it is doing so with apparent reluctance. The dollar is supported by the fact that the major fears of 2025 have not materialized.

Indeed, the White House's decision to raise tariffs to levels not seen since the 1930s initiated a "Sell America" process. Investors rushed to unload U.S.-issued assets. However, the rally in the S&P 500 drew them back in. Capital outflows from the U.S. did not occur.

Similarly, a slowdown in the American economy due to import tariffs had not taken place. Many banks expected that all the burden of responsibility would fall on U.S. companies and ordinary citizens, significantly hampering consumer spending and GDP. Nothing of the sort! Thanks to advances in artificial intelligence, the U.S. economy is thriving. The leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed expects a 3.9% expansion in the third quarter.

It has endured trials by fire and copper pipes, and Credit Agricole expects the USD index to rise in early 2026 amid reduced political risks and resilience in the U.S. economy.

Technically, on the daily chart of EUR/USD, the first test of resistance via a trendline failed. The "bulls" were forced to retreat, but it is unlikely they will stop trying to play out the reversal pattern 1-2-3, gain operational space, and ultimately restore the upward trend. A repeated assault on $1.16 may provide a basis for euro purchases.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.