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EUR/USD – April 3rd: The Dollar Suffers Another Collapse

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair surged sharply. This movement can hardly be called a mere rise. When it comes to the U.S. dollar, it was another collapse—one of many seen in 2025, more frequent than before Donald Trump came to power. As of yesterday and this morning, the pair firmly broke above the 1.0944 level, opening the way for the euro to reach the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1057. For now, considering a decline in EUR/USD seems unreasonable.

The wave pattern on the hourly chart has shifted. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, but the most recent upward wave has exceeded the previous high. This currently indicates a reversal in trend to a bullish direction.

Donald Trump imposed new tariffs last week and followed up this week with global tariffs on all categories of goods. Bulls had shown weakness recently, but as it turned out yesterday, it wasn't weakness—it was simply anticipation.

The fundamental backdrop on Wednesday is hardly worth analyzing. The U.S. ADP labor market report was released but largely ignored by traders. The dollar began falling as soon as the U.S. session opened. Clearly, the market was bracing for the worst even before Trump's speech at the White House. As it turned out, they were right.

President Trump imposed new tariffs—not selectively this time, but on all American imports. And that's not all. Several countries were hit with individual tariff rates, some as high as 70–90%. All previous trade actions by Trump now seem mild by comparison. Now, every country in the world will, in one way or another, pay to access the U.S. market—or abandon it altogether—or be forced to slash exports. As before, the dollar plunged on such news, regardless of any technical indicators.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a new bullish reversal and is rising toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.0969. The euro's growth, unsupported by EU data, should have ended long ago—but Trump's actions continue to weigh heavily on the dollar. A rebound from the 1.0969 level may prompt a slight pullback, but who's thinking about a decline now? A close above 1.0969 will likely lead to continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 1.1213.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 844 new long positions and closed 5,256 short ones. The "non-commercial" group sentiment became bullish again—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 190,000, while short positions are down to 124,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large traders had been selling off the euro. But for the past 7 weeks, they've been closing shorts and adding longs. The ECB–Fed policy divergence still favors the dollar, but Trump's policies are now a more significant factor for traders, as they could push the FOMC into a dovish stance and potentially trigger a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar – April 3 (U.S. and EU):

• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls Change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks (15:25 UTC)

While the April 3 calendar includes three very important events, it's unclear whether the market will even care about them. Market sentiment on Friday will likely be driven more by Trump's actions than by strong U.S. data.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

In the current environment, I would not consider selling the pair. Buying was possible yesterday on a rebound from the 1.0781–1.0797 zone (H1 chart) with a target of 1.0857. The next target at 1.0944 was also reached and broken, so long positions can be held with a new target at 1.1057.

Fibonacci levels were drawn between 1.0529 and 1.0213 on the hourly chart, and between 1.1214 and 1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

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Today, the GBP/USD pair is showing strong growth, reaching levels last seen in October 2024. This is driven by bearish momentum in the U.S. dollar, which has created favorable conditions for the British pound.

The decline in the U.S. Dollar Index to a new yearly low, in response to trade tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump, has heightened expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin a rate-cutting cycle sooner. As a result, U.S. Treasury yields have dropped sharply, undermining the dollar.

At the same time, the Bank of England is expected to cut rates more gradually than other central banks, including the Fed, which provides additional support to the pound. This further fuels demand for the British currency, helping the GBP/USD pair to rise.

From a technical perspective, the breakout above the psychological level of 1.3000 confirms the exit from a multi-week trading range, opening the way toward new targets. There is a high probability that GBP/USD could soon reach the 1.3180 area and the round level of 1.3200. However, it's important to note that oscillators on the daily chart are approaching overbought territory. Therefore, initiating new long positions at this moment may be premature—it's better to wait for consolidation or a short-term pullback.

On the other hand, the 1.3000 level now acts as a key support. A break below it would shift the bias in favor of the bears, pushing the pair back into its previous range. The nearest support is located around the 1.3100 round level, which the pair may revisit during consolidation, or to the 1.3056–1.3100 zone before potentially continuing its upward movement.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Markets on edge as Trump imposes 10% tariff on imports, gold and euro soar

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Investors vacillate between fear and hope amid US President's big announcements

After a turbulent trading environment, US stock markets ended the day in the green, with Wall Street posting a strong recovery despite a turbulent start. The bulk of the momentum came in the final hours of the session, as investors rushed to take positions ahead of President Donald Trump's big economic announcement.

Intrigue until the last minute

Trump's address, which was made after the end of trading, caused a stormy reaction in the futures market. Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq initially showed growth, but then sharply went into the negative against the backdrop of the announcement of large-scale tariff initiatives. At the time of the president's speech, futures on the S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and Nasdaq - 2.4%.

This sharp drop signals that traders are expecting a difficult session on Thursday, when the markets reopen - and will already begin to play out the effect of the new tariffs.

Trump vs. the World: the tariff map is exposed

The new tariff offensive was made decisively and without looking back. The president announced a 10-percent base rate on all imports, but at the same time introduced significantly higher duties for a number of countries with which the United States conducts the largest volume of trade.

China has become the main target of pressure - its exports will be subject to a 34-percent levy. Japan faced 24%, South Korea 25%, and Vietnam a staggering 46%. Even the EU didn't get away scot-free, with a 20% tariff.

Indices closed higher, but more uncertainty lies ahead

Before President Donald Trump took to the mic, the stock market sentiment remained upbeat. The Dow Jones gained 235 points, or 0.56%, to 42,225.32. The S&P 500 gained 0.67% to 5,670.97, and the Nasdaq was the strongest performer among the three, up 0.87% to close at 17,601.05.

Tech Takes the Floor

One of the main drivers of growth was big tech, which once again proved its ability to lift the market mood. Tesla was particularly notable, with its shares soaring 5.3% despite reporting a 13% decline in electric vehicle deliveries in the first quarter.

The catalyst for the rally was information published by Politico: according to the publication, Trump allegedly hinted to his inner circle that Elon Musk, a long-time ally and influential figure in business circles, may soon leave some of his government roles. Although it is unclear what exactly.

This unexpected turn neutralized the negative from the corporate statistics for a while and breathed life into Tesla shares.

Amazon Bets on TikTok

Among other stars of the tech sector, Amazon stood out, with its shares rising 2%. Investors were encouraged by rumors that the company intends to strengthen its presence in the short-form video market by betting on the popular TikTok platform. This move could strengthen its position in digital advertising and attract a new young audience.

AI startup in the spotlight, media giant in steep decline

Among the fresh players on the stock exchange, CoreWeave, an AI startup, stood out, having overcome a difficult start, and continued its confident ascent. Its shares added 16.7% during the session, expanding the momentum that began the day before.

A completely different scenario played out around Newsmax. After an impressive start and triple-digit growth in the first days of trading, the media company's shares plummeted, losing a staggering 77.5% in one day. Such volatility is rare even in the era of speculative IT startups.

The dollar and bonds are losing ground

The American currency weakened to its lowest level in the last six months, simultaneously with a drop in the yield on Treasury bonds. Investors began to rapidly move into more stable assets, reacting to the White House's toughening trade rhetoric. The new tariffs effectively became the largest tax burden on imports in the last hundred years, which could not help but shake up financial markets.

Selling Wave: Asia in the Red, Nasdaq Loses Its Balance

Nasdaq futures plunged 3.2% after Trump's speech, while European indices fell nearly 2%. Japan's Nikkei gave in to its defense, losing 3% to an eight-month low. The wave of negativity spread across Asia, affecting both stock and currency markets.

Tech Titans Under Attack

Even the giants succumbed to the selling storm. Apple's market cap was wiped out by more than $240 billion after its shares fell 7% in over-the-counter trading. Nvidia, once a triumphant AI powerhouse, lost $153 billion in market cap, a 5.6% drop.

Fitch: America is returning to the tax policy of the early 20th century

According to the latest estimates from Fitch Ratings analysts, the average import tax rate in the United States has reached a staggering 22% — almost nine times higher than in 2024, when the rate was just 2.5%. Such a level was last recorded more than a century ago, around 1910. Such an aggressive tariff approach could radically change the global trade architecture, in which the United States has long been one of the main opponents of protectionism.

Oil is losing its footing

Oil prices have fallen sharply — a barrel of Brent has fallen by more than 2%, to $73.28. The fall in "black gold", which is often seen as an indicator of global economic activity, reflects growing concerns about future demand volumes. At the same time, Australian shares have fallen and the Australian dollar, another barometer of global trade, has weakened.

Gold Shines Brighter Amid Fear

Amid the panic, investors rushed to the traditional safe haven — gold, the price of which updated its historical maximum, exceeding the mark of $3160 per ounce. At the same time, demand for the Japanese yen increased, which strengthened by more than 1% to 147.29 per dollar. This indicates an active exit of traders from the US dollar, despite its status as a global reserve currency.

The euro holds, China stabilizes the yuan

The European currency demonstrated stability: the euro rate rose by 0.6% to $1.0912. China, in turn, did not allow a sharp devaluation of the yuan — the fall was only about 0.4%. And this despite the fact that the total tariff pressure on Chinese exports exceeded 50%. The blow was especially painful for Vietnam, which was previously considered a "loophole" for bypassing American duties. Apparently, this path is now closed.

Europe under pressure: Healthcare worries

European markets fell on Wednesday, with healthcare stocks particularly weak as investors began to consider the potential risks of US tariffs. The main danger is not so much in the direct economic losses as in the slowdown in global economic growth and the build-up of inflationary pressures that could force the ECB and other central banks to rethink their strategies.

Trump's trade rhetoric drags STOXX 600 and DAX down

European stock indexes ended Wednesday in the red amid growing tensions in global trade. The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.5%, while the export-oriented and risk-sensitive German DAX fell 0.7%.

Investors in Europe acted cautiously: instability ahead of the announcements from Washington did not provide grounds for confident growth. The STOXX 600 continues to trade near two-month lows and remains nearly 5.1% below its March all-time high.

ECB fears global spillover, but remains calm

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has put it bluntly, saying a new wave of tariffs from the US would "hurt the whole world" by exacerbating inflation risks and slowing global growth. However, her ECB colleague Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that European inflation continues to slow and even aggressive US trade policy is unlikely to reverse that trend.

Biotech in the red

The biggest losses on European stock exchanges on Wednesday were in the healthcare sector: the profile index fell by 1.7%, falling to its lowest level since the beginning of the year. Among the biggest outsiders were Sanofi and Novartis, whose shares fell by 1.6%.

The decline in Novo Nordisk was especially noticeable, its shares lost 2.6%, becoming the main drag on the entire STOXX 600. Despite the brilliant reporting of the controlling shareholder, Novo Holdings, which almost doubled its revenue and investment profit to a record €8 billion in 2024, the shares of the pharmaceutical company itself could not withstand the pressure of the overall negative background. Assets under management of Novo Holdings, despite impressive income, showed a slight decrease, which also affected market valuations.

Maritime Maneuver: Svitzer in Focus of Deal

Amidst the general market tension, there was also an unexpected corporate event: Svitzer shares jumped by an impressive 30.2% after A.P. Moller, a holding company that is part of the same group as Maersk, announced a buyout of the company. The offer is 9 billion Danish kroner - approximately 1.3 billion US dollars.

Svitzer, which specializes in towing and marine logistics, is seen as a strategic asset for expanding Moller Holding's controlled operations in key ports around the world. Investors took the news positively, despite the turbulence in global shipping.

Global interest in Spain's Grifols

Another high-profile corporate event is on the horizon - Canadian investment giant Brookfield confirmed that it is in talks with shareholders of Spain's Grifols. Earlier, the media reported on a possible second attempt to acquire the manufacturer of blood plasma-based drugs. In response, Grifols shares rose by 3%.

The fund has not yet disclosed the specific parameters of the offer, but the market is already reacting to the prospect of consolidation in the biopharma sector, especially in an environment where European assets are becoming attractive against the backdrop of a weaker euro and geopolitical uncertainty.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD – April 3rd: A Pointless End of the Week for the Dollar

.On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair once again surged upward, breaking through a slew of levels and resistance zones. At this point, the British pound has risen by 220 points, and the price is approaching the 1.3151 level. A consolidation above this level will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci corrective level of 161.8% – at 1.3249. A rebound from the 1.3151 level would suggest a slight pullback.

The last completed downward wave failed to break the previous low, while the new upward wave easily surpassed the previous peak. Thus, a bullish trend is currently unfolding. Most traders still refuse to buy the dollar regardless of the economic data because Donald Trump keeps introducing new tariffs, which are expected to hit U.S. and global economic growth in the future. For the bullish trend to turn bearish, the pair must consolidate below 1.2865.

The news background for the pound on Wednesday was the same as for the euro. As a result, both pairs showed strong gains, which are still ongoing. By tomorrow, the euro and the pound could rise another 100–150 points, similar to what we saw in early March. I originally intended to say that Friday would be very important for the dollar—but now I don't see the point. The dollar once again plummeted thanks to Donald Trump, making reports like Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate, and even Jerome Powell's speech practically irrelevant. These could only make matters worse. If the Fed Chair starts talking about a slowing economy, recession, or labor market challenges—and the market senses the Fed is preparing for rate cuts—it will only further sink the dollar. And if the NFP or unemployment figures come in worse than expected, the dollar could collapse by another hundred points. In my view, yesterday's tariffs are not Trump's final "gift" to the dollar.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair retains its bullish trend. I don't expect a strong decline in the pound unless the price closes below the rising channel. A rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3157 could favor the dollar, but honestly, the dollar doesn't stand much of a chance right now. A bullish divergence in the CCI indicator signaled a potential rise, though that wasn't the cause of the rally—it was simply a side note.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became more bullish last week. The number of long positions held by speculators rose by 13,075, while short positions decreased by 1,806. Bears have lost their market advantage. The gap between long and short positions is now nearly 44,000 in favor of the bulls: 109,000 vs. 65,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has downward potential, but recent events may lead the market to shift in the long term. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 98,000 to 109,000, while shorts dropped from 78,000 to 65,000. More significantly, over the past eight weeks, longs increased from 59,000 to 109,000, and shorts decreased from 81,000 to 65,000. Let me remind you—those are "eight weeks of Trump's rule."

Economic Calendar (U.S. & UK):

• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls change (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC)
• U.S. – Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech (15:25 UTC)

Friday's calendar contains several key events, but for today, the only major item is the U.S. ISM Services PMI. Still, I believe none of these supposedly critical reports will matter for the dollar at this stage. They may influence sentiment slightly, but that's about it.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

I wouldn't recommend selling the pair amid this strong rally. Of course, the dollar won't fall forever, but right now it's even hard to identify levels from which a decline might start. Buying is an option if the price consolidates above 1.3003 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3151 and 1.3249.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Markets enter warpath

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Donald Trump confidently speaks about America's return to its Golden Age. From his viewpoint, it's time for America to prosper, rather than other countries. However, why does the US president consistently announce his decisions during stock market closures? Investors have figured out that the White House leader has no intention of throwing a lifeline to the S&P 500, but it's painful for him to watch the broad stock index sink. Futures for the S&P 500 plunged 4% after the announcement of a 10% tariff on all US imports. I fear this is just the beginning.

The three-day rally of the S&P 500 ahead of America's Liberation Day reflected hopes that Donald Trump's new tariffs would not be as scary as many had feared. Investors also hope that the US president will leave room for negotiations to lift them. Eventually, the uncertainty will clear up, allowing stock bulls to buy during dips.

The dynamics and structure of US foreign trade

The reality turned out to be much tougher. The universal 10% tariff on all US imports is just the beginning compared to tariffs on individual countries from Scott Bessent's "dirty fifteen" list. The European Union faces a 20% tariff, Japan 24%, and China 34%. If you add the latter number to the previously announced 20% tariff for 2025 and then add the existing tariffs from this year, it almost totals 70%. And how could these countries not retaliate?

The European Union intends to do the same if negotiations with the US fail. Japan is currently demanding the removal of tariffs. But who knows how long it will take for Japan to join the ranks of the world's power players? Unlike 2018-2019, Donald Trump will not just be fighting with Beijing. Defeating the rest of the world is no easy task.

For the S&P 500, this means that market sentiment remains obscure about further prospects of the US economy. The VIX fear index spiked above the critical 20 level, stock indices worldwide are falling into the abyss, and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is heading toward 4%. It's as if they want a recession or are calling for help from the Federal Reserve.

US Treasury yield dynamics

Donald Trump's envisioned scenario of events is clearly stagflationary. It's no surprise that banks and companies, including Capital Economics, are raising inflation forecasts by an average of 2.5 percentage points while lowering GDP predictions. Such an environment is unfavorable for stocks. However, the resilience of the S&P 500 signals that the broad stock index is not fully accounting for the risks of a downturn in the US economy. If it does happen, the selloff will snowball.

Technically, the daily chart of the S&P 500 still suggests a chance of the Double Bottom reversal pattern materializing. However, if the broad stock index fails to hold above its fair value of 5,670 or return to it after an opening gap, it will provide grounds for selling toward 5,500 and 5,400. It makes sense to benefit from the increase after a gap to open short positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 03/04/2025: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, Gold and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock Market on April 2: S&P 500 and NASDAQ Hit New Yearly Lows

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At the close of yesterday's regular session, U.S. stock indexes ended in positive territory. The S&P 500 rose by 0.67%, the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.87%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.56%. However, Donald Trump's tariffs quickly sent index futures plunging during post-session trading.

The introduction of tariffs, which Trump called the key to America's long-term prosperity, triggered a collapse in stocks that had rallied in hopes of a less aggressive tariff policy. S&P 500 futures dropped more than 3.5%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell by 4.5%, marking new yearly lows.

Trump announced a baseline 10% tariff on all exporters to the U.S., with additional duties for approximately 60 countries. This includes significantly higher rates for some of the U.S.'s top trading partners, such as China, the European Union, and Vietnam.

This development ended a three-day rally in the S&P 500 index, as hopes for a more moderate tariff plan were dashed. Traders across asset classes must now brace for what promises to be a grueling period of trade negotiations.

The White House stated that steel and aluminum imports would not be subject to reciprocal tariffs—offering some relief to domestic buyers already paying 25% duties on key metals used in everything from cars to dishwashers.

Shares of companies in sectors most vulnerable to the new round of tariffs fell sharply at the end of New York trading. Nike Inc., Gap Inc., and Lululemon Athletica Inc. dropped at least 7%. Chipmakers like Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. also plunged, as did multinationals such as Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing Co.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged U.S. trade partners not to retaliate against Trump's new set of tariffs, warning that the U.S. could respond even more aggressively.

"If you don't retaliate, this will be the ceiling," Bessent said.

This will likely slow global trade and drive prices higher, reducing corporate profits and raising consumer end costs—potentially triggering another wave of inflation. Many experts believe retaliatory measures from the affected countries will worsen the global economic situation.

This could lead to a prolonged selloff in risk assets over the coming days or weeks before markets reach attractive levels for renewed buying.

S&P 500 Technical Outlook:

The downtrend continues. Today, buyers' main goal is to break through the nearest resistance at $5,520. Doing so could extend the rebound and open the way toward $5,552. Regaining control over $5,586 is also a top priority for bulls, as it would reinforce their position.

If risk appetite declines and the index moves lower, bulls must defend the area around $5,483. A breakout below this level would quickly push the instrument toward $5,443, possibly moving further to $5,399.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Why Is the Dollar Falling If Tariff Issues Affect Everyone? (Correction Likely for GBP/USD and EUR/USD After Sharp Rally)

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The U.S. dollar had recently managed to stay above the key 104.00 mark on the ICE index, giving hope that a further decline might be avoided. But why did it tumble against other major currencies, especially considering that trade tariffs should also negatively impact the countries targeted by them?

Yes, this might seem odd at first glance, but there are clear reasons behind it, and they are likely to continue weighing on the dollar until the situation stabilizes.

As stated in a previous article, had Trump not introduced anything beyond the initially announced tariffs, the dollar might have received noticeable support yesterday. But that didn't happen. Instead, the U.S. president went beyond previously priced-in measures on the Forex market, equity indices, and Treasury yields. In addition to a base tariff of 10%—a more moderate figure than the previously floated 20%, which would have been seen as a positive—he announced additional tariffs for certain countries. According to Evercore ISI, the new weighted average tariff rate may rise to 29% after all new tariffs are implemented, the highest in over a century. This means that, collectively, the U.S. is imposing significantly higher trade barriers than initially expected.

Fears of a full-blown economic crisis and recession in the U.S. have driven investors into Treasuries, causing yields to plunge and adding downward pressure on the dollar. This decline in the Forex market is not due to strength in other currencies but rather the dollar's weakness. For example, the euro's rise contradicts the eurozone's economic issues. According to recent data, declining inflation raises the likelihood of further interest rate cuts—clearly a bearish factor for the euro versus the dollar, which might eventually find support on expectations of rate hikes if inflation picks up later this year.

In short, the dollar's drop is mostly an emotional reaction. This decline may be short-lived, ending once there's more clarity on the actual U.S. tariff rates and the retaliatory measures from trade partners. As mentioned above, fear of the unknown is pushing the dollar down. However, this decline could benefit the U.S., as it improves the competitiveness of American exports, which could strengthen the economy in the long run. In the meantime, speculators will likely take full advantage of the "tariff reality" before entering the market again at lower, more favorable price levels.

Outlook for Today:

GBP/USD

The pair is trading above the 1.3100 level. If it fails to hold above this mark, a pullback toward 1.3035 and then 1.3000 is likely.

EUR/USD

The pair is trading above the 1.0880 level. If it fails to stay above this level, a downward correction toward 1.0940 and then 1.0900 is possible.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on April 3

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Bitcoin and Ethereum rose even before Trump's decision and the announcement of trade tariffs, but pressure on risk assets increased significantly afterward. It's hard to say that the newly announced tariffs directly affect the cryptocurrency market—for instance, the forex market and its risk assets rose against the dollar. However, a sharp drop in U.S. stock indices also pulled cryptocurrencies down.

Another failed attempt by Bitcoin to hold above the $88,000 level led to a sell-off. It is now trading at around $83,200. Ethereum also faced setbacks: after reaching $1,950 during the U.S. session yesterday, it is now trading around $1,821.

On a positive note, Fidelity has announced the launch of a retirement plan that allows direct investments in cryptocurrency. This is undoubtedly a significant step, signaling the growing recognition of digital assets within traditional financial institutions. Ordinary households can now include Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in their retirement portfolios, opening new opportunities for diversification and potentially higher returns. However, it's important to remember that despite their appeal, cryptocurrencies carry substantial risks, as demonstrated by yesterday's developments surrounding Trump's trade policy.

Market volatility and unpredictable regulation may present challenges, making it unlikely that households will rush to invest in Bitcoin at the risk of their retirement savings.

I will continue to focus on significant pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum for the crypto market, anticipating a continuation of the medium-term bull market, which remains intact.

For short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Buy Bitcoin today at the entry point near $84,000 with a target of $85,600. I'll exit long positions around $85,600 and sell immediately on a bounce. Before a breakout buy, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy from the lower boundary at $82,800 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a rebound toward $84,000 and $85,600.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Sell Bitcoin today at the entry point near $82,800 with a target of $81,500. Exit short positions at $81,500 and buy immediately on a bounce. Before a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell from the upper boundary at $84,000 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a return toward $82,800 and $81,500.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Buy Ethereum today at the entry point near $1,844 with a target of $1,893. Exit long positions at $1,893 and sell immediately on a bounce. Before a breakout buy, ensure the 50-day moving average is below the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in positive territory.

Scenario #2: Buy from the lower boundary at $1,808 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a rebound toward $1,844 and $1,893.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Sell Ethereum today at the entry point near $1,808 with a target of $1,770. Exit short positions at $1,770 and buy immediately on a bounce. Before a breakout sell, ensure the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in negative territory.

Scenario #2: Sell from the upper boundary at $1,844 if there is no market reaction to a breakout, aiming for a return toward $1,808 and $1,770.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 149.49 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming the validity of the entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 60 pips, breaking through the target level of 150.11.

However, today, pressure on the dollar has returned, and the yen has significantly strengthened. Yesterday, it was announced that the US would impose a 24% tariff on all imports from Japan. However, as the chart shows, the yen appeared to be prepared for this — there was virtually no reaction to the new tariffs.

Given the ongoing tension in US-Japan relations and the American president's campaign statements, the markets may have priced in such a scenario in advance. Another possibility is that Japanese exporters had already adapted to potential restrictions by adjusting supply chains or signing advance contracts. The long-term impact of these tariffs on the Japanese economy will undoubtedly be significant. Retaliatory tariffs and reduced export volumes to the US may lead to a decline in industrial output and, as a result, a slowdown in economic growth.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 147.68 (green line on the chart), with a target at 148.50 (thicker green line). Around 148.50, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips). It's best to re-enter long positions during corrections or significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 147.16 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downside potential and result in an upward market reversal. A move toward 147.68 and 148.50 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after a confirmed break below 147.16 (red line on the chart), which would likely result in a sharp decline. The main target for sellers will be 146.33, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open long positions (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement). Bearish pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 147.68 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 147.16 and 146.33 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The price test at 1.2952 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to rise from the zero line. This confirmed the validity of the entry point for buying the pound, which resulted in growth toward the target level of 1.3009.

The absence of significant tariffs on the UK and Trump's generally anticipated tariff policy supported the pound's upward movement. However, despite this short-term optimism, caution is still advised. The UK's fundamental economic indicators remain weak, which could exert pressure on the pound. During the first half of today, the market expects data on the UK Services PMI and Composite PMI. These are closely watched, as they are important indicators of the health of the British economy. The Services PMI, in particular, reflects activity in the UK's dominant economic sector, while the Composite PMI offers a broader picture of overall economic performance.

Stronger-than-expected data could boost investor confidence in the UK's economic outlook, increase demand for the pound, and lead to further strengthening against the US dollar. Conversely, weaker data may raise concerns about slowing growth and weaken the pound.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today at the entry point around 1.3077 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3155 (thicker green line). At 1.3155, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback. Buying the pound is justified within the framework of a continued upward trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3037 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. A move toward 1.3077 and 1.3155 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after a breakout below 1.3037 (red line on the chart), which would likely result in a quick decline. The main target for sellers will be 1.2980, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 pip retracement). There is no need to rush with pound shorts. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting to move down from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3077 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This would limit the upside potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline to 1.3037 and 1.2980 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 3. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.0815 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Yesterday, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all goods imported from countries that are key trading partners of the United States. For the EU, tariffs were set at 20%, for Japan at 24%, and the total on Chinese imports reached 54%. This initiative may become modern U.S. trade history's most radical protectionist step. Trump justified his stance as a way to protect American manufacturers and jobs from unfair foreign competition. The global community reacted quickly, with many countries expressing serious concern over the potential consequences of such a decision for the world economy. EU representatives stated they are ready to respond.

The euro may maintain its position today during the first half of the trading day, but this depends on the release of favorable PMI data in the services sector and the composite PMI for the eurozone. Otherwise, if the actual data disappoints, the euro may come under pressure. Market participants will also closely watch the eurozone producer price index. The European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting report is unlikely to influence the market significantly, as decisions are now less relevant under current conditions.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.0928 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1019. At 1.1019, I plan to exit the market and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expecting growth in the euro is reasonable within the ongoing bullish trend that started yesterday. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0889 level while the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise to the opposite levels, 1.0928 and 1.1019, can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.0889 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0815, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip retracement). Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.0928 level while the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal to the downside. A decline to the opposite levels, 1.0889 and 1.0815, can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on April 3

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The euro and the pound resumed growth after news that the reciprocal trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. were roughly in line with market expectations. Although the U.S. stock market encountered new issues, such developments were not observed in the currency market.

Speaking from the White House Rose Garden, Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports from countries considered key U.S. trading partners. The European Union expects new customs duties to raise current tariffs by 20%. This will undoubtedly force Brussels to prepare for increased import tariffs, increasing costs for European consumers and businesses.

This move could become modern U.S. trade history's most radical protectionist decision. Trump justified his stance by citing the need to protect American manufacturers and jobs from unfair competition by foreign companies. He also emphasized that the current trade system is unfair to the U.S. and that change is long overdue.

Today, demand for the euro may persist, but this will depend on solid fundamental data from the eurozone. Services PMI and composite indices are expected. If the data disappoints, the euro could come under pressure. Traders will also be watching trade tariff headlines, as today marks the start of new car tariffs and potentially the EU's response to these developments.

In the second half of the day, attention will shift to the U.S. ISM Services PMI. The index is expected to remain strong, which could support the U.S. dollar. The eurozone PPI data will also be a focus, which provides key insights into regional inflation trends. Traders closely monitor these figures as they may precede changes in consumer prices and influence future European Central Bank policy. The ECB's monetary policy meeting minutes will also be published, which could offer more clarity on the rate outlook. However, it is already evident that no further rate cuts are expected, suggesting that the euro's strength may continue.

If data aligns with economist expectations, the Mean Reversion strategy is preferable. If data deviates significantly from forecasts, a Momentum strategy is more effective.

Momentum Strategy (on breakout):

EUR/USD

Buy on breakout above 1.0925, target: 1.0952 and 1.0997

Sell on breakout below 1.0884, target: 1.0845 and 1.0810

GBP/USD

Buy on breakout above 1.3098, target: 1.3131 and 1.3171

Sell on breakout below 1.3050, target: 1.3005 and 1.2955

USD/JPY

Buy on breakout above 147.52, target: 148.20 and 148.80

Sell on breakout below 147.15, target: 146.78 and 146.49

Mean Reversion Strategy (on pullbacks):

EUR/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.0939 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.0878 with a return above

GBP/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.3093 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.3032 with a return above

AUD/USD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 0.6307 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 0.6263 with a return above

USD/CAD

Look to sell after a failed breakout above 1.4264 with a return below

Look to buy after a failed breakout below 1.4220 with a return above

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

What to Pay Attention to on April 3? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

On Thursday, several macroeconomic events are scheduled, with the U.S. ISM Services PMI being the most significant. At this moment, we believe there is little value in analyzing the macroeconomic context. In recent weeks, market participants have frequently ignored macroeconomic data, shifting their focus to Trump's trade tariffs. We had assumed that the hype surrounding this topic was gradually fading and that the market was starting to grow accustomed once again to Trump's ambition to "Make America Great Again." However, as practice has shown, Trump still has many methods and decisions that can plunge all markets into complete chaos.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There is no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade tariffs. The dollar's decline may continue for several more days, and we recommend that traders pay close attention to statements from leaders of major countries and alliances regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump has stated that any response to his efforts to "eliminate injustice" will be met with harsh new sanctions and tariffs. So, anyone who thought yesterday's tariffs were final and the rates were set is sorely mistaken. Now, lengthy and complex negotiations begin with all the sanctioned countries that cannot afford to accept Trump's tariffs. Retaliatory measures from major players—such as the European Union, China, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and others—are on the way.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as Trump has once again done everything he can to push the dollar lower. This is likely far from the last market shock of 2025. The global trading system is being reshaped, and we can expect significant shifts in trade flows. Many companies and countries will look for new markets, redirect exports, and form new trade alliances and agreements. This will result in a significant redistribution of capital and trade flows.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on April 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair surged by 160 pips and continues its rapid upward movement. Let us reiterate: we did not expect Donald Trump to impose tariffs on all countries globally, mainly with rates for selected nations ranging from 20% to 100%. Frankly, very few anticipated such harsh measures. No one in the world can predict Trump's actions. Accordingly, no one can forecast how the market will respond to any specific Trump decision, as those decisions are inherently unpredictable. Traders should now brace for prolonged negotiations between the U.S. and the countries buried in tariffs. Strong nations will retaliate; weaker ones will seek compromise. Global trade architecture will begin to shift—trade alliances will be formed, countermeasures will be introduced, and counter-countermeasures will follow. At this point, macroeconomic and fundamental factors are irrelevant.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Wednesday, a buy signal formed during the European session, but its quality and accuracy left much to be desired. It's important to remember that the British pound had been trading in a tight flat for nearly a month, so strong signals were nothing but wishful thinking during that time. And on Wednesday morning, the flat range was still intact. During the day, the pair rose to the 1.2860 level, which was previously considered the upper boundary of the sideways channel. Then, after Trump published the list of countries subject to trade tariffs, the market experienced sharp movements. It would be easier to list the countries that didn't make it onto that list.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD should have long since entered a downward trend, but Trump continues to do everything in his power to prevent that from happening. Now that the global trade war has officially begun, we will not attempt to predict long-term movements of currency pairs. It is best to trade using lower timeframes, where trends and reversals can be tracked more quickly. However, we caution traders that the currency market is now at the mercy of politics. Retaliatory measures against the U.S. could trigger significant market moves.

On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair will likely continue to rise. What else can be expected from the U.S. dollar now except further decline? We had assumed that the market had already priced in all of Trump's tariffs and had lost interest in the topic, but the American president once again managed to shock the markets—and this clearly won't be the last time.

On the 5-minute timeframe, you can currently trade using the following levels: 1.2301, 1.2372–1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107.

Business activity indices are scheduled for release in the UK and the U.S. on Thursday, but they will be irrelevant to traders who are still quietly horrified by recent developments.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on April 3? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Analysis of Wednesday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with gains on Wednesday, though this had nothing to do with the macroeconomic backdrop. The U.S. dollar began weakening again during the American trading session, and the market likely started to sense something very negative coming from Trump. As it turned out, that feeling was entirely justified. It's worth noting that we did not expect Trump to impose such sweeping and high tariffs. We had assumed they would be capped at around 10–15%. However, Trump has imposed tariffs on imports from almost every country globally, and in some cases, the rates are approaching 100%. Therefore, the overnight "storm" across markets is hardly surprising.

The U.S. dollar is again plunging, and the market shows how it views Trump's initiative to "Make America Great Again." The technical picture on higher timeframes is starting to break down, as no one could have foreseen the onset of a global trade war a few months ago. We should expect retaliatory measures from countries affected by Trump's actions. We should also expect a new wave of declines in the U.S. stock market, a sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, and rising yields. The formation of trade alliances against the U.S. is also possible. In short, 2025 continues to surprise us with new shocks.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe on Wednesday, two trading signals were formed. It's worth noting that there were virtually no market movements before the U.S. session began. The "takeoff" started in the second half of the day, while we saw near-parabolic movements by night. Thus, novice traders could only attempt to work with the signal on the breakout of the 1.0797–1.0804 zone, after which the 1.0859–1.0861 area was reached and processed.

Trading Strategy for Thursday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair remains in a medium-term downtrend, but the chances of that trend resuming are dwindling. At this point, fundamental and macroeconomic factors have no weight. Only political and geopolitical developments matter. Trump has been imposing tariffs for two months now, and that alone is driving the dollar downward. Now, other countries may begin to impose tariffs on U.S. exports, and Trump has already promised to respond with even more tariffs to any countermeasures.

On Thursday, all markets will be in a state of shock. We're not even going to attempt forecasting movements, and the economic calendar can be ignored—it holds no relevance at this point. The coming days will be important in terms of the global response to the U.S.'s new trade policy.

On the 5-minute chart, the levels to watch are: 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0859–1.0861, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1048.

On Thursday, we won't highlight any key macroeconomic events. Today and tomorrow, the market will closely watch how countries respond to Trump's sweeping tariff measures.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Pair Overview – April 3. The Market is Tired of Trump's Tariffs

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The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade in a total flat on April 2. What caused the dollar to stop falling? After all, Trump announces new tariffs or teases upcoming ones almost every week. First, we want to emphasize that such an important event as the announcement of a new U.S. trade policy shouldn't be analyzed hastily. Recall that it's not uncommon for EUR/USD to move strongly in one direction right after a Federal Reserve meeting, only to retrace the next day. The same could happen here, as these are events of similar scale. It's best to conclude only after some time has passed.

Let's also recall that just a week ago, Trump imposed tariffs on all automobile imports into the U.S., and the dollar didn't significantly decline. Why? In our view, the market is simply tired of Donald Trump. Yes, tired—after less than 2.5 months of his presidency. It brings to mind the first four years of Trump in office: two impeachment attempts, hostile remarks toward journalists, a trade war with China, and an average of 14.6 false statements per day (official data). So, if anyone truly believed Trump would end the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours, they were likely very naive.

Likewise, Trump promises to "Make America Great Again" but fails to mention who will pay for his plans. It might seem like the rest of the world, who've "robbed America for years." However, the Trump administration is slapping an additional 10–25% cost on any imported goods. And who pays for these goods? American companies and consumers. So, who's footing the bill for America's future greatness? Americans themselves.

Demand for European and Chinese goods will fall, and the EU and China will suffer from the tariffs. But they will suffer—Americans will pay. Trump wants to lower taxes and introduce various tax breaks, but it all looks like: "We'll raise prices by 25%, then give a 5% discount." In any case, the American people elected Trump, and at this point, there's no use crying over spilled milk. They knowingly chose a leader with a well-documented governing style—they had four years to observe it. That choice signals that they accept the consequences. Previously, many Americans criticized high spending under Democrats on aid to Ukraine, Israel, and NATO. With Trump, Washington will spend less, and Americans will pay more for the same goods they used to buy.

The British pound maintains a short-term uptrend while the long-term downtrend persists. We don't see strong reasons for a sustained rally in the British currency.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 82 pips, which is considered "average" for this currency pair. On Thursday, April 3, we expect the pair to trade within a range limited by 1.2881 to 1.3045. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the downtrend remains intact on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

Trading Recommendations:

GBP/USD maintains a medium-term downtrend, while the 4-hour chart shows a weak correction that could end as the market avoids buying the dollar. We still do not consider long positions, as the current upward move appears to be a technical correction on the daily timeframe that has become illogical. However, if you trade based purely on technicals, long positions are possible with targets at 1.3045 and 1.3062—but the market is still range-bound. Short positions remain more attractive, with targets at 1.2207 and 1.2146, because sooner or later, the upward correction on the daily chart will end (assuming the previous downtrend hasn't ended already). The British pound looks extremely overbought and unjustifiably expensive, but it's hard to predict how long the dollar's Trump-driven decline will last.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Pair Overview – April 3. Trump's Tariffs: Not As Simple As It Seems

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The EUR/USD currency pair once again spent most of Wednesday virtually motionless. Even in the chart below, it's clear that recent volatility is low and decreasing. Strangely enough, this is happening when the dollar should, at first glance, be plummeting. Recently, the market has shown no urgency to abandon the U.S. dollar. For those who may have forgotten, the U.S. dollar has been gaining against the euro for 16 years, clearly visible in the monthly timeframe. As mentioned, breaking such a strong trend requires more serious reasons than Trump's tariffs. Moreover, a new downtrend on the daily timeframe began six months ago, and the current euro growth—no matter how strong it may seem—is merely a correction within that broader downtrend.

Let's look at how substantial and sustained the dollar's decline has been. The bulk of the dollar's fall happened over three days—March 3, 4, and 5—when it dropped by 400 pips. Excluding that "storm," the dollar declined by 360 pips over three months of correction, compared to a 1,040-pip rally. The first conclusion is clear: we wouldn't have seen such a sharp correction if not for Trump's tariffs.

We can also question how justified the dollar's decline was. Undoubtedly, Trump's tariffs will negatively affect the U.S. economy. But they will also hit the European, British, and global economies. So, what exactly are traders worried about? The U.S. economy continues to grow steadily at 2–3% per quarter. The European economy, on the other hand, grows by 0.1–0.3% at best. If Europe slows down, that's a recession. If the U.S. slows down, it's likely just stagnation.

So, while the market has reacted to Trump's aggressive and protectionist actions, what justification remains for further dollar selling? Let's also not forget that the European Central Bank has been cutting rates at every meeting since last summer. The Federal Reserve has only cut rates four times and may pause in 2025. That's a realistic scenario because Trump's actions will likely fuel inflation globally. Inflation in the EU is at 2.2%, while in the U.S., it's 2.8%. Therefore, a basic analysis shows that the ECB may continue easing monetary policy, while the Fed must keep rates steady to avoid another inflation surge—which could only be tackled by raising rates again. But how can rates be raised if the economy is expected to slow down in the coming year?

We still believe the dollar has a higher chance of strengthening in 2025, while the euro lacks a solid foundation for a long-term uptrend.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days (as of April 3) is 78 pips, which is considered "moderate." We expect the pair to trade between 1.0774 and 1.0930 on Thursday. The long-term regression channel has turned upward, but the broader downtrend remains intact, as seen in higher timeframes. The CCI indicator has not recently entered overbought or oversold territory.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.0742

S2 – 1.0620

S3 – 1.0498

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.0864

R2 – 1.0986

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair continues to correct. We've been stating that we expect a medium-term decline in the euro for months, and that view remains unchanged. The dollar still has no solid reasons for a medium-term decline—except for Donald Trump. However, Trump alone may be enough to pressure the dollar, especially since most other factors are ignored. Short positions remain much more attractive, with targets at 1.0315 and 1.0254, though it's currently hard to determine whether the Trump-fueled rally has ended. If you trade based solely on technicals, long positions can be considered if the price remains above the moving average, with targets at 1.0864 and 1.0930.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD Forecast for April 3, 2025

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Starting today, U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% will apply to nearly all of America's trading partners. Market participants were prepared and refrained from panic, although equity indices weakened. In response, efforts to strengthen regional and global trade alliances have regained momentum. We immediately heard renewed focus on BRICS, ASEAN, APEC, and others. China, Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a new trade bloc.

Meanwhile, markets are still evaluating losses and opportunities. Against this backdrop, investors have begun to move away from the U.S. dollar, technically triggering upward moves in anti-dollar currencies.

On the daily EUR/USD chart, the euro is approaching the first target level at 1.0955. The next targets are 1.1027 and the broader target range of 1.1110/50. The Marlin oscillator has moved into positive territory with significant upside potential.

On the H4 chart, yesterday evening's price showed a wide range—over 100 pips—directly above the MACD line, which currently reinforces that line and signals a strong short-term uptrend. This trend could only be broken if the price falls below the support level at 1.0762. In that case, the 1.0667 target would come into play.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD Forecast for April 3, 2025

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GBP/USD

Yesterday, Trump's sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners impacted the UK at the lowest rate—just 10%. In contrast, tariffs on EU goods were set at 20% and on Japanese goods at 24%.

Naturally, this is good news for the UK, and the British pound already broke above the first target resistance at 1.3001 yesterday. Now, the next target, 1.3101, is within reach. We can also note that the following target will be the 1.3184 level and, after that, 1.3311. On the daily timeframe, the Marlin oscillator has confidently moved into positive territory, supporting further growth in the pound.

On the H4 chart, the oscillator shows a powerful uptrend, so a pullback may occur as the price approaches resistance at 1.3101. After the correction, a new attempt to break through resistance is expected.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY Forecast for April 3, 2025

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USD/JPY

After Washington imposed a 24% tariff on Japanese imports, the Nikkei 225 has decreased by 2.71% during today's Pacific session. The USD/JPY pair is falling by roughly 150 pips.

On the daily chart, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator is crossing into bearish territory, opening the door for a deeper decline. The price has dropped below the balance line and remains below it. The first target is the 145.08–144.91 range, followed by support at 143.45 — the low from August 26, 2024.

On the four-hour chart, the price decline began after a second reversal from the MACD indicator line. As of now, the price has consolidated below the 149.38 support level. The Marlin oscillator has deeply entered the negative zone, nearing oversold conditions, which may lead to a slowdown in the decline and some consolidation before reaching the 145.08–144.91 target range.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Oil Forecast for April 3, 2025

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Oil (CL)

Market participants anticipate a disruption in global trade following President Trump's sweeping tariffs imposed yesterday on all U.S. trading partners. On the daily chart, the upper wick of the latest candle pierced the resistance level and the MACD line.

This morning, the price tested the balance line indicator but is now nearly settled below the 70.58 level, increasing the chances of reaching the next target at 68.69. At that point, the signal line of the Marlin oscillator may reach the boundary of the downtrend territory, intensifying pressure — a simultaneous price breakdown of the level and the oscillator crossing below the zero line would amplify the bearish momentum. The target level of 66.77 may be reached soon, possibly influenced by tomorrow's U.S. employment data. Caution is advised around that time.

On the H4 chart, the price has settled below the MACD line. It may pause here briefly while the Marlin oscillator cools slightly. After that, a renewed push toward 68.69 is expected, most likely with success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on April 3: The British Pound Remains in a Flat Range

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GBP/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade within a sideways channel on Wednesday. Over the past two weeks, all price movement has occurred between the 1.2863 and 1.2981 levels. The Ichimoku indicator lines are being ignored during this range-bound phase. The macroeconomic backdrop is irrelevant because the price is moving sideways. As a result, the technical picture of the pound appears "super-attractive." Of course, the market occasionally reacts to individual reports, but these moves are so weak that they're practically useless to trade—and predicting which report will spark a reaction is impossible.

There were no notable events in the UK yesterday, and in the U.S., the ADP employment report (the "little brother" of NonFarm Payrolls) was released. As we warned, the market paid no attention to this report. According to ADP, 155,000 new jobs were created in March, compared to a forecast of 105,000. How much has the U.S. dollar increased? Correct—there has been no change at all. The market spent the entire day awaiting Donald Trump's speech, but no information was released by the end of the day. As a reminder, we do not recommend trading on "super-important" news or events and not leaving positions open overnight. Of course, everyone has their trading strategy, and trades are not only open during the day. However, in any case, we wouldn't trade "on Trump"—the risk is just too high.

Technically, two trading signals were formed during the day. The price bounced back from the critical line overnight and fell by 20 pips, which was at least enough to set a Stop Loss to breakeven. Later in the day, the price crossed the Senkou Span B and Kijun-sen lines and eventually reached the 1.2981 level. Nonetheless, all daily movements still occurred within the flat range.

COT Report

The COT reports for the British pound show that commercial traders' sentiment has constantly shifted in recent years. The red and blue lines, which reflect the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, frequently cross and usually stay close to the zero line. They are again near each other, indicating a roughly equal number of long and short positions.

On the weekly timeframe, the price first broke through the 1.3154 level and then dropped to the trendline, which it successfully breached. Breaking the trendline suggests a high probability of further GBP decline. However, the bounce from the previous local low on the weekly timeframe is also worth noting. We may be looking at a broad flat.

According to the latest COT report for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 13,000 new long contracts and closed 1,800 short contracts. As a result, the net position of non-commercial traders rose again—by 14,800 contracts.

The fundamental background still provides no grounds for long-term GBP purchases, and the currency remains vulnerable to continuing the global downtrend. The pound has risen significantly recently, and the primary reason for this increase is Donald Trump's policy.

GBP/USD 1-Hour Analysis

In the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD remains completely flat (sideways market), and the upward correction on the daily chart is long overdue for completion. We still don't see what would support the British pound in a long-term uptrend. The only thing still working in favor of the pound is Donald Trump, who's imposing tariffs and sanctions left and right. Even though that factor is starting to wear thin with the market, the flat must end before a new trend can be determined on the hourly chart.

For April 3, we highlight the following key levels: 1.2331–1.2349, 1.2429–1.2445, 1.2511, 1.2605–1.2620, 1.2691–1.2701, 1.2796–1.2816, 1.2863, 1.2981–1.2987, 1.3050, 1.3119. The Senkou Span B line (1.2949) and Kijun-sen line (1.2929) can also serve as signal levels. A Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven once the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction. Ichimoku indicator lines can shift during the day, so this must be considered when identifying signals.

On Thursday, service sector activity indices will be published in the UK and the U.S., with the S&P and ISM versions being released in the U.S. Honestly if the market couldn't break out of the sideways channel "on Trump," we don't expect Thursday's macroeconomic data to break the flat either. There might be a small intraday reaction, but it's unlikely to have any practical impact.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on April 3: No Tariffs, No Movement

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EUR/USD 5-Minute Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair traded on Wednesday as it did on Monday and Tuesday. For most of the day, we observed low-volatility, erratic movements with no clear logic. No information on tariffs was released by Donald Trump on Wednesday, so any analysis of the U.S. President's trade-related announcements will need to be conducted today. The ADP employment report was published only during the U.S. trading session, which turned out to be nearly twice as strong as forecasted—yet it still failed to support the dollar. As we warned yesterday, this report is secondary. Even if not entirely secondary, the market places much more weight on the Nonfarm Payrolls report when assessing the state of the U.S. labor market.

Thus, nothing interesting, logical, or consistent was observed on Wednesday. A week that initially seemed full of potential for significant market moves turned out to be dull. The market continues to ignore most macroeconomic reports and is even reacting rather indifferently to new statements from Donald Trump.

Based on Wednesday's trading signals, we can emphasize two rebounds from the critical line. However, these rebounds were not very precise. Nevertheless, long positions could be opened based on them—even though the dollar's decline contradicted the macroeconomic backdrop. During the U.S. session, the dollar faced renewed pressure, allowing the price to reach the Senkou Span B line by day's end. As a result, the single long position could yield about 50–60 pips in profit.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated March 25. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders had remained bullish for a long time. Bears struggled to gain dominance, but now the bulls have retaken the initiative. The bears' advantage has faded since Trump became President, and the dollar started plummeting. We cannot say with certainty that the decline of the U.S. currency will continue, as COT reports reflect the sentiment of large players—which, under current circumstances, can change rapidly.

We still see no fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro, but one very significant factor has emerged for the weakening of the dollar. The pair may continue to correct for several more weeks or months, but a 16-year downward trend will not be reversed so quickly.

The red and blue lines have crossed again, indicating that the market trend is now "bullish." During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the "Non-commercial" group increased by 800, while the number of short positions decreased by 5,200. Accordingly, the net position increased by another 44,400 thousand contracts.

EUR/USD 1-Hour Analysis

On the hourly chart, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair ended quickly as Trump announced new tariffs. We still believe that a decline will resume in the medium term due to the divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed. However, it's unclear how long the market will continue reacting solely to the "Trump factor." Traders are ignoring many reports and news events, the dollar is being sold off at every opportunity, and even when conditions favor it, the greenback struggles to gain. In recent weeks, volatility has also dropped, and price movements have become increasingly erratic.

For April 3, we identify the following trading levels: 1.0340–1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0823, 1.0886, 1.0949, 1.1006, 1.1092, along with the Senkou Span B line (1.0868) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0791). Remember that Ichimoku indicator lines can shift throughout the day, so this should be considered when identifying trading signals. Don't forget to move your Stop Loss to breakeven once the price moves 15 pips in the right direction—this will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Thursday, service sector PMIs will be released in Germany, the Eurozone, and the U.S. However, we strongly doubt that the market will react to these indices. Traders are largely ignoring macroeconomic data, and the focus remains on Donald Trump's anticipated announcement of new tariffs—not business activity. A relatively strong reaction is only likely for the ISM Services Index from the U.S.

Illustration Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels (thick red lines): Thick red lines indicate where movement may come to an end. Please note that these lines are not sources of trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B Lines: Ichimoku indicator lines transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme Levels (thin red lines): Thin red lines where the price has previously bounced. These serve as sources of trading signals.
• Yellow Lines: Trendlines, trend channels, or any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on COT Charts: Represents the net position size for each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

#NDX – March Results and April Outlook

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March concluded with a bearish candle that left a notable mark in the history books. Bears closed below the monthly short-term trend level (19,730) and eliminated the weekly golden cross, testing support at the upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku cloud (18,821). If the decline continues, bearish targets will include testing and breaking through the next monthly support level (18,204) and exiting the weekly cloud (17,408). Should the bulls regain control by reclaiming the monthly short-term trend (19,730), they will aim to retest the levels of the weekly Ichimoku cross (20,103 – 20,508 – 20,914). Consolidation above these resistance levels will open the door for testing and updating the all-time high (22,225).

There is currently a downtrend occurring on the daily timeframe, but a corrective move has emerged and aims to test the first key level of the daily correction, which today lies at 19,566 (Tenkan-sen). Additional resistance levels are located at 19,730 – 19,765 – 20,065 – 20,103. A completed corrective climb followed by a drop below the corrective zone (18,792) will confirm a consolidation within the weekly cloud (18,821). The next downward target will be the monthly support at 18,204.

In the lower timeframes, the market is also in the corrective zone, and the main boundary on the way of bulls is the weekly long-term trend (19518). The breakdown and reversal of the trend will allow us to consider new upward benchmarks. The resistance of the classic Pivot levels (19565 - 19708 - 19946) will become these intraday targets. Completing the corrective rise and descent through the support of classic Pivot levels (19183 - 19945 - 18802) will allow an update on the minimum extreme of March (18792) and restore the downtrend.

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Technical Analysis Components:

• Higher Timeframes: Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) and Fibonacci Kijun levels
• H1: Classic Pivot Points and 120-period Moving Average (weekly long-term trend)

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.