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Trading Recommendations and Trade Analysis for EUR/USD on March 7th

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EUR/USD 5M Analysis

Throughout Thursday, the EUR/USD pair maintained its bullish trend. However, the pace of growth was slower compared to the first three days of the week. By now, the U.S. dollar has already lost 400 points, with no strong macroeconomic justification for such a decline. Thursday's session further reinforced this point.

The ECB meeting resulted in a decision to cut all three key interest rates. How did the euro react? It rose slightly, but the more accurate description would be that the U.S. dollar fell further. The American currency continues its decline due to decisions and statements from President Donald Trump, a trend that has become apparent to every trader. Given this environment, analyzing macroeconomic data has become nearly irrelevant.

What remains interesting is today's U.S. labor market and unemployment reports. If the data turns out weaker than expected, the dollar could extend its losses.

Markets are also wary of a potential shift in Jerome Powell's rhetoric toward a more dovish stance, as he is scheduled to speak later today. The week has been intense, dominated by Trump's policies, and Friday's session is unlikely to be any different.

There were no clear trading signals for the euro over the past three days, as the pair ignored key levels and simply surged higher. On Thursday, despite conditions favoring a pullback, the market remained stagnant. Levels around 1.0797 and 1.0836 provided some trading opportunities, but price action was highly inconsistent.

COT Report Analysis

The most recent Commitments of Traders (COT) report, dated February 25, shows that non-commercial traders' net position has shifted into bearish territory. Three months ago, professional traders sharply increased their short positions, pushing the net position negative for the first time in a long while. This suggests that the euro is now being sold more frequently than it is bought, reinforcing a bearish market sentiment.

From a fundamental perspective, there is no clear justification for sustained euro strength. While recent gains on the weekly timeframe remain barely noticeable, they still appear to be a standard correction rather than a trend reversal. Even if the pair corrects for several weeks or months, this does not alter the 16-year-long downtrend.

At present, the red and blue lines in the COT report have crossed, signaling a bearish shift in the market. Over the last reporting week, long positions increased by 12,400 contracts, while short positions decreased by 13,600 contracts. This resulted in a net increase of 26,000 contracts, although it has yet to significantly influence the overall market outlook.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, EUR/USD remains in an aggressive uptrend. In the medium term, we anticipate a resumption of the downtrend due to monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve. However, the current movement appears driven by panic selling of the dollar, making it difficult to predict its immediate trajectory. Traders are ignoring all fundamentals except Trump's statements, leading to near-vertical price action.

For March 7, key trading levels include 1.0269, 1.0340–1.0366, 1.0461, 1.0524, 1.0585, 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, and 1.0935, along with the Senkou Span B line (1.0444) and the Kijun-sen line (1.0607). As Ichimoku indicator lines may shift intraday, traders should factor in their movements when assessing trading signals.

Setting Stop Loss orders at breakeven after a 15-point move in the right direction is advisable to protect against potential losses if a signal turns out to be false.

Key Events to Watch on March 7

Friday brings several high-impact events, including:

• U.S. NonFarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate reports
• Jerome Powell's speech
• Christine Lagarde's speech
• Final Q4 GDP data for the Eurozone

With such an event-packed calendar, volatility is expected to remain elevated, though it remains uncertain how much the market will react to these releases.

Explanation of Key Chart Elements

• Support and resistance levels (bold red lines): Areas where price movement may slow or reverse. These are not direct trading signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B: Ichimoku indicator lines taken from the 4-hour timeframe, serving as strong support/resistance levels.
• Extreme levels (thin red lines): Price levels where significant reversals have previously occurred, serving as potential trading signals.
• Yellow lines: Trendlines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.
• COT Report Indicator: Displays the net position of different trader categories.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Will the Euro React to the ECB Rate Cut?

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Throughout the week, despite clear expectations of further rate cuts, the euro has demonstrated a sharp rally against the U.S. dollar.

It is almost certain that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates today for the sixth time since June last year. However, uncertainty about the economic outlook has sparked debate over the future course of borrowing costs.

Economists are almost unanimously forecasting a 25-basis-point cut in the deposit rate to 2.5%. However, opinions diverge beyond that—some analysts do not expect further rate reductions, while others foresee rates dropping to 1% by early 2026.

These stark differences reflect growing divisions among ECB officials. While there was broad consensus on monetary easing, opinions now vary on whether inflation poses a renewed risk and how much support the struggling Eurozone economy still requires.

Adding to the complexity, Germany has recently unfrozen €500 billion to stimulate economic growth, creating additional challenges for the ECB in shaping its monetary policy path.

Further uncertainty arises from the U.S. decision to halt military aid to Ukraine and Europe, which has triggered an urgent push for rearmament that could lead to hundreds of billions of euros in defense spending across the region in the coming years. European leaders are set to discuss this issue at a summit in Brussels today.

Market Pricing and ECB's Internal Divisions

Traders currently price in 62 basis points of easing, including today's expected 25-basis-point cut, down from 65 basis points on Wednesday and 85 basis points last week.

The rate cut decision itself may seem straightforward, but discussions within the Governing Council are expected to be intense. This meeting could mark the last clear-cut decision on rates, as future meetings may become more complex due to growing internal disagreements.

While some ECB policymakers, including Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, urge discussions on pausing rate cuts, no official has openly opposed today's expected decision.

The ECB's divisions stem from different views on the current impact of monetary policy. Schnabel is no longer certain that rates remain restrictive, while Greek central banker Yannis Stournaras insists the ECB is still in tight monetary territory. Officials generally agree that rates should move toward a neutral level, where they neither stimulate nor restrain economic activity.

However, defining this neutral level remains contentious. Some fear that cutting rates too aggressively could trigger a new wave of inflation, while others warn of excessive tightening that could lead to a recession. The ECB faces growing pressure to balance inflation control with economic support. Uncertainty over geopolitical risks and the energy crisis adds further complexity.

Few ECB officials have advocated for more aggressive rate cuts to boost demand. While a recent ECB staff study estimated the neutral rate at 1.75%–2.25%, hawkish policymakers argue that it could be even higher.

Market Impact: Euro's Reaction Depends on Lagarde's Statements

Today's rate cut has already been priced into the markets, meaning that the euro's reaction will depend on ECB President Christine Lagarde's forward guidance.

If Lagarde signals further easing, the euro may face a downward correction. However, if her stance appears more cautious or hawkish, suggesting a pause in rate cuts, the euro could extend its bullish trend.

Technical Outlook

EUR/USD

For buyers to maintain control, EUR/USD must break above 1.0820. A successful move could open the door for a test of 1.0855, followed by 1.0885, though a further push may require stronger support from institutional players. The ultimate upward target would be 1.0920.

On the other hand, 1.0780 is the key support level. If buyers fail to defend it, a drop toward 1.0740 or even 1.0700 may follow.

GBP/USD

For the British pound, the key resistance is 1.2920. A breakout could target 1.2946, though moving above this level may prove challenging. The final upward target is 1.2970.

If GBP/USD falls, bears will aim to regain control at 1.2860. A breakdown of this level would deal a major blow to bulls, sending the pair toward 1.2810, with further downward potential toward 1.2765.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

XAU/USD: Analysis and Forecast

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Gold is attracting sellers today, yet it manages to hold above the $2,900 level.

Despite selling pressure, gold remains above $2,900 as market sentiment shifts toward riskier assets. The recent U.S. tariff concessions on Canada and Mexico have fueled risk appetite, leading to capital outflows from safe-haven assets such as gold. However, the intraday decline lacks strong fundamental backing, suggesting that losses may remain limited.

Investors remain concerned about President Donald Trump's tariff policies and the rising risk of a global trade war. These factors continue to support gold, which is traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, expectations that Trump's economic policies could slow U.S. growth, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement deeper rate cuts in 2025, are providing further support, preventing a steep gold selloff.

Technical Analysis

A break above the $2,934 level could push gold prices back toward the all-time high of $2,956, recorded in February. Such a move could act as a bullish trigger, reinforcing the long-term uptrend, which remains intact, supported by positive oscillators on the daily chart.

However, the lack of follow-through buying calls for caution before initiating new long positions. Any corrective pullback could be viewed as a buying opportunity near the key psychological level of $2,900. However, if selling pressure intensifies, a deeper decline could target intermediate support at $2,880, followed by the next downside level at $2,855.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD: Analysis and Forecast

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The USD/CAD pair is rebounding from the 1.4300 level, which marks the weekly low, but its recovery may face significant hurdles.

The U.S. dollar index has dropped close to November lows, pressured by the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates multiple times in 2025. The latest Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that private sector employment in the U.S. grew by just 77K in February, falling far short of the 140K forecast. This weak data has raised concerns over a potential economic slowdown despite continued expansion in the services sector.

Additionally, Trump's one-month delay in enforcing new tariff agreements with Mexico and Canada for U.S. auto manufacturers has reduced the immediate risk of a trade war, prompting investors to shift toward riskier assets.

At the same time, the Canadian dollar is gaining support from expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will pause its rate-cut cycle at the upcoming policy meeting. Additionally, recovering oil prices are providing a boost to the Canadian economy.

However, traders may hold off on making major decisions until Friday's key employment reports from both the U.S. and Canada.

Today's economic calendar includes the weekly U.S. jobless claims report and the Ivey PMI data from both the U.S. and Canada. These releases could provide some volatility early in the North American session. Furthermore, speeches from key FOMC members may influence demand for the U.S. dollar, while oil price movements could also impact USD/CAD trading opportunities in the short term. Given the mixed fundamental backdrop, buyers should exercise caution.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, 1.4300 has now become a key pivot level. A convincing breakdown below this support could trigger a further decline toward 1.4260, with the next downward target at the psychological level of 1.4200, which aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). A break below this SMA could act as a bearish trigger, leading to deeper losses.

On the daily chart, oscillators have not yet turned negative but are losing bullish momentum, signaling the need for caution.

On the other hand, any recovery attempts will face strong resistance near the 1.4400 round level. A breakout above this mark could push the pair toward 1.4470, with a further rally potentially targeting 1.4500—a key psychological level and the monthly high reached on Tuesday.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

The First-Ever White House Summit on Digital Assets in U.S. History! What Will Trump Discuss?

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According to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who took office on February 19, 2025, President Donald Trump is preparing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve proposal, set to be unveiled this Friday. However, the plan will not be solely focused on Bitcoin—instead, it will introduce alternative tokens.

Lutnick emphasized that Trump recognizes the importance of a Bitcoin reserve, but the upcoming White House Summit on Digital Assets, scheduled for March 7, will also address other cryptocurrencies. This historic summit will serve as a platform for Trump to outline his administration's approach to crypto regulation and direct investments in the sector.

Bitcoin will hold a special status within Trump's crypto reserve plan, Lutnick added.

In a recent post on Truth Social, Trump stated that the "American Crypto Reserve" will help revive the industry following what he called "corrupt attacks" by the Biden administration. He also mentioned that XRP, Solana, and Cardano would be included in the reserve. Trump reaffirmed his commitment to making the U.S. the "crypto capital" of the world.

The summit, hosted by David Sacks and Bo Hines, is expected to feature prominent figures in the crypto sector, including Michael Saylor, Brad Garlinghouse, and Sergey Nazarov. Discussions will focus on:

• The future of digital assets in the U.S. financial system,
• The integration of digital currencies into national infrastructure,
• The development of a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.

Additionally, in his first week in office, Trump signed Executive Order 14178, aimed at protecting citizens' rights in the use of blockchain technology and digital assets. The order specifically safeguards Americans from risks associated with Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which, according to Trump, pose threats to financial stability, personal privacy, and U.S. sovereignty. The order explicitly prohibits the creation, issuance, and use of CBDCs within U.S. jurisdiction.

Following these announcements, Bitcoin's price began to rise, recovering from its recent downturn. However, technical indicators on the daily chart suggest that the oscillators have not yet turned positive, meaning that a confirmed bullish trend has yet to materialize.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6th (U.S. Session)

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Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The 148.95 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark. In the context of the dollar's downtrend, this confirmed a valid short entry, leading to a 70+ point decline.

The dovish speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller today could be the main driver of the dollar's decline. If Waller signals an intention to lower interest rates, it may further weaken investor sentiment toward the dollar, which has already lost favor in recent weeks. A more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could support risk assets, including the Japanese yen.

Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims and U.S. non-manufacturing labor productivity data are unlikely to have a significant impact on USD/JPY.

For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY at 148.29 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 149.04 (thicker green line). At 149.04, I will exit long positions and open shorts, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move today would be a corrective rebound within a broader downtrend.Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying if USD/JPY tests 147.62 twice, with MACD in oversold territory. This would limit downside risks and signal a potential reversal upward. Expected targets: 148.29 and 149.04.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY if the price breaks below 147.62 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline. The primary downward target is 146.89, where I will exit shorts and initiate long positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. A bearish move would be supported by strong U.S. data or an acceleration in risk-off sentiment.Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another short opportunity arises if USD/JPY tests 148.29 twice, with MACD in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets: 147.62 and 146.89.

Chart Key

• Thin green line: Entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Crucial for identifying overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Forex trading requires caution when making trade entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially when trading large positions without proper risk management.

To trade successfully, always follow a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading based on short-term market moves is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6th (U.S. Session)

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Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the British Pound

The 1.2918 price test occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the pound. The 1.2890 test coincided with the MACD beginning its downward move from the zero mark, confirming the validity of the short entry and leading to a 20+ point decline.

Buyers of the British pound faced resistance around 1.2920. For further growth, the pound likely needs a fresh catalyst—either stronger UK economic data or a weakening U.S. dollar. For now, consolidation near current levels seems logical. A break above 1.2920 could open the door to 1.3000, but this would require strong buying pressure. Otherwise, a correction toward 1.2850 and 1.2800 appears likely. Market attention remains focused on macroeconomic data and central bank statements.

During the U.S. session, key reports include weekly jobless claims and a speech by FOMC member Christopher Waller. The jobless claims report is often viewed as a leading indicator of labor market trends. Additionally, non-manufacturing labor productivity and unit labor cost data will be released—both critical for assessing inflationary pressure and corporate competitiveness.

Waller's speech will also be significant. Given the ongoing debate about U.S. monetary policy, his comments—especially on potential rate cuts—could significantly impact market sentiment.

For intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy GBP/USD at 1.2894 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 1.2936 (thicker green line). At 1.2936, I will exit long positions and open shorts, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move today depends on weak U.S. data.Important: Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above zero and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying if GBP/USD tests 1.2862 twice, with MACD in oversold territory. This would limit downside risks and signal a potential reversal upward. Expected targets: 1.2894 and 1.2936.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell GBP/USD if the price breaks below 1.2862 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a quick decline. The primary downward target is 1.2817, where I will exit shorts and initiate long positions, expecting a 20-25 point rebound. A bearish move would be supported by strong U.S. data.Important: Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below zero and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another short opportunity arises if GBP/USD tests 1.2894 twice, with MACD in overbought territory. This would limit upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. Expected targets: 1.2862 and 1.2817.

Chart Key

• Thin green line: Entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Crucial for identifying overbought and oversold conditions before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Forex trading requires caution when making trade entries. It is best to stay out of the market before major economic reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always use stop-loss orders to manage risk. Without stop-loss protection, you could quickly lose your entire deposit—especially when trading large positions without proper risk management.

To trade successfully, always follow a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading based on short-term market moves is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6th (U.S. Session)

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Review of Trades and Trading Advice for the Euro

No tests of the levels I outlined occurred in the first half of the day. A decline in volatility ahead of the ECB's key meeting is evident.

The three-day rally in the euro stalled due to a lack of strong interest in buying before the ECB's rate decision. Investors have likely already priced in the expected rate cut and are now waiting for clearer guidance on future monetary policy. The anticipated rate cut and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty have temporarily halted the euro's rise, shifting the market into a wait-and-see mode. Further movement will depend on ECB officials' statements and global economic developments.

In the second half of the day, weekly U.S. jobless claims data will be released. This indicator reflects the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. A rise in claims suggests worsening employment conditions and a potential economic slowdown. If the data is weak, particularly after yesterday's ADP report, pressure on the dollar may increase.

Additionally, the non-manufacturing labor productivity report will be released. Productivity growth is a key factor influencing corporate profitability and overall economic competitiveness. Higher productivity allows for more output with lower costs, boosting earnings and improving living standards. Also, labor unit cost data will be published, reflecting the cost of labor per unit of output. Rising labor costs can pressure corporate profits and drive up consumer prices, whereas a decline may enhance competitiveness and support economic growth.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro at 1.0825 (green line on the chart) with an upward target of 1.0897. At 1.0897, I will exit long positions and initiate shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point pullback. A bullish move today is likely only if U.S. data disappoints. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just starting to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the euro tests 1.0781 twice, with MACD in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal. In this case, an upward move toward 1.0825 and 1.0897 is expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once the price reaches 1.0781 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0707, where I will exit short positions and enter long positions, aiming for a 20-25 point rebound. Selling pressure may return if U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another short opportunity arises if the euro tests 1.0825 twice, with MACD in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.0781 and 1.0707 is expected.

Chart Key

• Thin green line: Entry price for long positions.
• Thick green line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further upside beyond this point is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for short positions.
• Thick red line: Expected Take Profit level or manual profit-taking zone, as further downside beyond this point is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Important for identifying overbought and oversold zones before entering trades.

Important Notes for Beginner Traders

Forex trading requires caution when making entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before key fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during high-impact news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss protection, you risk wiping out your account quickly, especially when trading large volumes without risk management.

For successful trading, always have a clear trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading based on short-term market fluctuations is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 6th (Review of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2919 level as a key decision point for market entry. A look at the 5-minute chart shows that a false breakout around 1.2919 provided an excellent short entry, leading to a decline of more than 40 points. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has been revised accordingly.

Long Position Strategy for GBP/USD:

Buyers faced resistance around 1.2920, but this seems more due to a lack of new demand at current highs rather than a strong presence of sellers. A series of key U.S. labor market reports is set to be released in the second half of the day. Weak data, similar to yesterday's ADP report, helped revive demand for the pound, and a repeat scenario is possible today. The focus will be on initial jobless claims, labor productivity in the non-manufacturing sector, and unit labor costs. Additionally, FOMC member Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak, with a likely dovish stance on further rate cuts in the U.S. A combination of weak statistics and dovish rhetoric from the Fed could boost demand for the pound and pressure the dollar.

If U.S. data is strong, GBP/USD could fall toward the nearest support at 1.2857. A false breakout at this level would present a solid buying opportunity, targeting a recovery toward resistance at 1.2919. A breakout and retest of this range from above would confirm a new long entry, with the next upward target at 1.2946, further strengthening the bullish trend. The final upward target will be 1.2972, where I plan to take profits.

If GBP/USD declines and buyers fail to show activity around 1.2857 in the second half of the day, bearish pressure on the pound will increase. In this case, I will look for a false breakout around the 1.2807 low as a signal to open long positions. Alternatively, I will consider buying on a direct rebound from support at 1.2766, aiming for a 30-35 point intraday correction.

Short Position Strategy for GBP/USD:

Sellers made a strong impact in the first half of the day, triggering a significant correction in the pound. However, this correction remains minor compared to the broader uptrend that has been in place since the end of last week.

In the second half of the day, focus remains on defending the 1.2919 resistance level. Only strong U.S. labor market data could restore bearish pressure on the pair. A false breakout at 1.2919, similar to the earlier setup, would provide a short entry targeting 1.2857 as an intermediate support level. A breakout and subsequent retest from below would trigger stop-loss orders, clearing the way for a drop toward 1.2808, where moving averages currently favor buyers. The final downward target for short positions is 1.2766, where I will lock in profits. Testing this level could temporarily halt the bullish trend.

If demand for the pound remains strong in the second half of the day and bears fail to defend 1.2919, the pair will likely continue rising. In this case, I will postpone short positions until GBP/USD tests resistance at 1.2946. I will consider selling only if a false breakout occurs there. If the pair continues upward without a pullback, I will look for short entries at 1.2972, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The COT report for February 25 showed a minimal increase in long positions and a reduction in short positions. The buying advantage over selling is becoming more apparent, increasing the probability of continued GBP/USD growth. Given the positive developments in conflict resolution in Ukraine and relatively stable economic data from the UK, traders continue to show interest in the British pound.

The latest COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 525, reaching 74,089, while short non-commercial positions decreased by 4,517, totaling 69,626. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 434.

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesThe pair is trading above the 30 and 50-period moving averages, signaling further potential for upward movement.

Note: The analysis is based on the hourly (H1) chart, which differs from traditional daily (D1) moving average calculations.

Bollinger BandsIf the pair declines, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands at around 1.2857 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Averages (MA): Used to identify the current trend by smoothing out price volatility and noise.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): A momentum indicator that helps assess trend direction and potential reversals.
• Bollinger Bands: A volatility-based indicator that helps identify overbought and oversold conditions.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, who use futures markets for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: The total number of long positions held by speculators.
• Short non-commercial positions: The total number of short positions held by speculators.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between the number of long and short positions held by speculators.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on March 6th (Review of Morning Trades)

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In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0818 level as a key point for making trading decisions. A look at the 5-minute chart reveals that a false breakout at this level provided a solid short entry, leading to a 35-point decline. The technical outlook for the second half of the day has been adjusted accordingly.

Long Position Strategy for EUR/USD:

The lack of strong buying interest in the euro ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision has temporarily halted the bullish trend observed over the past three days. In addition to the ECB's decision, attention should be given to U.S. data releases, including initial jobless claims, non-farm labor productivity changes, and unit labor cost figures. If the data aligns with economists' forecasts, it may not provide significant support for the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, dovish remarks from FOMC member Christopher Waller could increase demand for the euro and put additional pressure on the dollar.

If the reaction to the data is bearish for the euro, protecting the nearest support at 1.0783 will be a priority for buyers. I plan to enter long positions only if a false breakout forms at this level, aiming for a continued rise toward the 1.0818 resistance, which was tested once during the European session. A breakout and subsequent retest of this range from above will confirm a buy entry, potentially pushing the pair to 1.0855. The final upward target will be the 1.0885 high, where I intend to take profits.

If EUR/USD declines and shows no significant activity around 1.0783, especially if the ECB adopts an unexpectedly dovish stance, demand for the euro could weaken, leading to a consolidation phase. In this scenario, sellers may push the pair toward 1.0749. I plan to enter long positions only after a false breakout at this level. Alternatively, I will consider buying on a direct rebound from 1.0715, targeting a 30-35 point intraday correction.

Short Position Strategy for EUR/USD:

Sellers asserted themselves in the first half of the day, preventing the pair from extending its monthly high into a sustained bullish trend. However, further price action depends on upcoming U.S. data, so heavy reliance on bearish momentum may not be advisable.

A false breakout around 1.0818—similar to what was observed earlier—will provide a valid short entry, targeting a correction toward support at 1.0783, where the pair is currently trading. A breakout and sustained move below this range—possible only if U.S. labor market data is significantly stronger than expected—would create another short-selling opportunity, with a downward target at 1.0749. The final target for short positions would be 1.0715, where I plan to take profits. This level also aligns with moving averages, which currently favor buyers.

If EUR/USD continues to rise in the second half of the day and sellers fail to defend the 1.0818 level, buyers could gain further momentum, leading to another strong rally. In this case, I will postpone short positions until a test of the next resistance at 1.0855. I will consider selling only if a failed consolidation occurs at this level. If the pair continues higher without a pullback, I will look for short entries at 1.0885, aiming for a 30-35 point downward correction.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The COT report for February 25 showed an increase in long positions and a notable reduction in short positions. More traders are showing interest in buying the euro. The ongoing pressure from the U.S. on Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire is increasing demand for risk assets. Additionally, Eurozone inflation data meeting the ECB's expectations supports further rate cuts, which could eventually benefit economic growth and make the euro more attractive for long-term buyers. However, sellers still hold an advantage, so caution is advised when buying at current highs.

The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased by 12,379, reaching 182,699, while short non-commercial positions declined by 13,616, bringing the total to 208,124. As a result, the gap between long and short positions narrowed by 4,106.

Indicator Signals:

Moving AveragesThe pair is trading above the 30 and 50-period moving averages, indicating continued bullish momentum.

Note: The author's analysis is based on the hourly (H1) chart, which differs from traditional daily (D1) moving average calculations.

Bollinger BandsIf the pair declines, the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands at around 1.0780 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Averages (MA): Used to identify the current trend by smoothing out price volatility and noise.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): A momentum indicator that helps assess trend direction and potential reversals.
• Bollinger Bands: A volatility-based indicator that helps identify overbought and oversold conditions.
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions, who use futures markets for speculative purposes.
• Long non-commercial positions: The total number of long positions held by speculators.
• Short non-commercial positions: The total number of short positions held by speculators.
• Net non-commercial position: The difference between the number of long and short positions held by speculators.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for March 6-8, 2025: sell below $2,920 (21 SMA - 6/8 Murray)

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Early in the American session, gold traded around 2,904, bouncing back after having reached Murray 6/8 around 2,889 during the European session.

Gold could continue its rise in the next few hours and reach the top of the bearish trend channel forming since February 14 around 2,920.

On the other hand, in case gold falls below 2,903, it is expected to continue its bearish sequence and could reach 2,851 where the 200 EMA is located. The metal could eventually reach even the bottom of the bearish trend channel around 2,820.

The outlook remains positive only in case there is a consolidation above 2,925. Gold is expected to return to 2,953 and even surpass its high. Finally, the price could reach 8/8 Murray located at 2,968.

If gold consolidates below the 21 SMA, the outlook may remain negative for the next few days. Hence, we will look for opportunities to continue selling with a target at 4/8 Murray.

The eagle indicator is approaching oversold zones. So, any pullback in gold will be seen as a signal to buy. Meanwhile, above 6/8 Murray and above 5/8 Murray, any technical correction will be seen as an opportunity to buy.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading tips for crypto market on March 6 (North American session)

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Bitcoin managed to correct after the Asian session's rally, allowing for a short position at $91,200. While a major decline didn't materialize, the price did manage to update the $90,500 level, which is already a decent result.

The obvious drop in volatility and the lack of new sellers directly relate to Trump's speech tomorrow at the cryptocurrency conference, where the US president is expected to shed light on the details of the US reserve crypto fund.

The speech is expected to cover a strategy for stabilizing the crypto market and strengthening the dollar's position in the digital economy. Experts predict Bitcoin's growth if Trump's statements are positive but caution against excessive euphoria, reminding investors of the unpredictability of political decisions.

At the same time, Federal Reserve officials are avoiding comments, emphasizing the need for a detailed analysis of the potential impact of a crypto reserve fund on monetary policy. Experts disagree on whether such a move is justified, with concerns that it could increase government control over decentralized assets.

Ethereum gets stuck in trading range

Ethereum is not showing much momentum, continuing to trade within a range, which is positive for its long-term bullish prospects. However, the market lacks fresh catalysts, which everyone is eagerly awaiting tomorrow. Until then, the market is unlikely to see significant moves.

Medium- and short-term trading strategy

For intraday trading, I will continue to focus on major pullbacks in Bitcoin and Ethereum, betting on the bullish trend to continue in the medium term.

Bitcoin

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point at $91,700, targeting a rise to $93,400. At $93,400, I will exit long positions and go short on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be bought from the lower border at $90,800 if there is no reaction to its breakdown, aiming for $91,700 and $93,400.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Bitcoin today if it reaches the entry point at $90,800, targeting a decline to $89,000. At $89,000, I will exit short positions and buy on a dip. Before selling on a breakout, I need to check that the 50-day moving average is above the current price and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Bitcoin can also be sold from the upper border at $91,700 if there is no reaction to its breakout, aiming for $90,800 and $89,000.

Ethereum

Buy scenario

Scenario #1: I will buy Ethereum today if the price reaches the entry point at $2,307, targeting a rise to $2,356. At $2,356, I will exit long positions and open short ones on a rebound. Before buying on a breakout, I need to confirm that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the positive zone.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be bought from the lower border at $2,274 if there is no reaction to its breakdown, aiming for $2,307 and $2,356.

Sell scenario

Scenario #1: I will sell Ethereum today if it reaches the entry point at $2,274, targeting a decline to $2,231. At $2,231, I will exit short positions and buy on a dip. Before selling on a breakout, I need to verify that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome Oscillator is in the negative zone.

Scenario #2: Ethereum can also be sold from the upper border at $2,307 if there is no reaction to its breakout, aiming for $2,274 and $2,231.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Global Financial Impact: Why Intel and CrowdStrike Are Falling, While Nasdaq Is Gaining

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Investors Encouraged by Possible Tariff Delay

US stock indices closed steadily higher on Wednesday, showing volatile dynamics throughout the day. Investor optimism was fueled by the news that tariffs on cars from Canada and Mexico may be delayed. After the publication of information that President Donald Trump was considering postponing the deadline by a month, shares began to rise. Later, the White House confirmed this possibility, which further strengthened the confidence of market participants.

Negative dynamics turned to growth

Before this news, trading took place in an environment of uncertainty: investors reacted cautiously to contradictory economic data and continuing concerns about trade disputes. However, the market was eventually able to reverse the negative trend.

Among the leaders of growth were shares of companies from the industrial goods (.SPLRCI), consumer market (.SPLRCD), materials (.SPLRCM) and communications services (.SPLRCL) sectors. At the same time, the energy sector (.SPNY) and utilities (.SPLRCU) showed the worst dynamics.

Trading results

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) added 485.60 points (+1.14%) and closed at 43,006.59;

• The S&P 500 (.SPX) rose 64.48 points (+1.12%) to 5,842.63;

• The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 267.57 points (+1.46%) to 18,552.73.

Mixed economic data curbed optimism

The ISM report released earlier in the session unexpectedly showed an increase in business activity in the services sector in February. However, investors were wary of signals about a possible increase in commodity prices, which somewhat curbed the positive mood.

Nevertheless, the overall market dynamics indicate that investors continue to closely monitor the development of US trade policy and react to key economic indicators.

Investors await key employment data

The market froze in anticipation of Friday's labor market report, which may provide a clearer picture of the state of the US economy. ADP's preliminary data for February showed private sector job growth slowed to its slowest in seven months.

The signal has raised concerns among market participants that weak employment could signal a cooling economy. Investors have been cautious in recent weeks, worried that the Trump administration's trade policies will fuel inflation, slow economic growth and hurt corporate profits.

Automakers Show Strong Gains

Despite the general market uncertainty, automakers were among the biggest gainers. Ford (F.N) shares soared 5.8%, while General Motors (GM.N) shares rose 7.2%. Tesla (TSLA.O) also gained 2.6%. The moves came as the Trump administration temporarily exempted some automakers from tariffs, easing tensions in the industry.

Tech under pressure

Unlike the auto industry, not all sectors have managed to benefit from the current market situation. The largest chipmaker Intel (INTC.O) lost 2.4% in value after Trump said he might end a subsidy program for the semiconductor industry. This raised concerns among investors about the future prospects of the sector.

Another blow to the tech market was dealt by CrowdStrike (CRWD.O). The cybersecurity company lost 6.3% after it presented a revenue forecast for the first quarter, which was below analysts' expectations.

Gainers: Shipbuilding in Focus

Among the biggest winners of the day was Huntington Ingalls (HII.N), with shares of the shipbuilding company soaring by 12.3%. This growth occurred after Trump announced the creation of a special administration for shipbuilding in the White House and the possible introduction of tax breaks for the industry. Investors saw the initiative as a positive signal for the shipbuilding sector.

Asian Markets React Positively

Optimism about a possible easing of trade tensions has spread to global markets. Asian stocks rose strongly on Thursday, following Wall Street's lead. Investors welcomed Trump's decision to temporarily exempt some automakers from tariffs.

On the foreign exchange market, the euro remained strong ahead of the European Central Bank meeting, indicating investors are paying attention to monetary policy in the eurozone.

Markets Reel Amid Global Economic Turmoil

Financial markets are facing a fresh wave of instability triggered by major policy changes in the world's largest economies. Japanese government bonds fell sharply after a massive sell-off in German debt, the biggest in decades. The catalyst for this process was an agreement between parties leading coalition talks in Germany to review fiscal restrictions, which led to a sharp change in investor sentiment.

Escalating Trade Conflicts Are Making Things Worse

Market participants continue to focus on the escalation of the global trade war. The introduction of 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as a new round of trade restrictions against China, have raised serious concerns about the outlook for economic growth. Investors are concerned that tough US tariff policies could lead to a slowdown in the global economy and a tightening of conditions for international trade.

However, the situation changed slightly on Wednesday: the White House announced that it is ready to grant automakers a temporary exemption from new tariffs, provided that they comply with existing free trade rules. This news caused a sharp rise in US stock indices, which in turn had a positive impact on Asian markets.

Asian and European stock markets are moving higher

The reaction of stock markets was not long in coming. The MSCI Asia-Pacific share index, which tracks the dynamics of markets outside Japan, strengthened by 1.2%. In Japan, the Nikkei index added 0.9%, reflecting investor optimism about a possible easing of trade tensions.

European stock exchanges are also getting ready for a positive start. Futures on the pan-European STOXX 50 index rose 0.7%, while Germany's DAX added 0.3%, indicating confident expectations for growth at the start of trading.

China is betting on its domestic market

China was not left out either. On Thursday, Chinese and Hong Kong stock indexes showed confident growth after the Chinese authorities announced plans to stimulate the economy. Beijing set an ambitious growth target and promised increased support for domestic consumption and the technology sector, which is particularly affected by the trade dispute with the United States.

These measures signaled to markets that China is ready to take active steps to support the economy despite external challenges. Investors took the news positively, which led to growth in Chinese stock indexes.

Asian Markets Continue to Rise, Hang Seng Breaks Records

Asian stock markets are showing solid gains, confirming a trend of strengthening positions in the face of global economic uncertainty. The CSI 300 index of China's largest companies rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HIS) soared almost 3%, reaching its highest levels in three years.

The Hang Seng has already gained 20% since the start of the year, making it the best-performing stock index among the world's major markets. Investors continue to pour money into Chinese stocks amid Beijing's confident economic course aimed at stimulating domestic demand and technological development.

European Markets Await ECB Meeting

Market participants are also focusing on the upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for Thursday. The financial regulator is expected to decide again on cutting interest rates, which is associated with the need to support economic growth amid trade conflicts and instability in the region.

Adding to the pressure on European markets was news that Germany's leading parties, discussing a coalition government, have agreed to spend €500 billion (approximately $540.7 billion) on infrastructure. They are also planning to revise existing borrowing rules, which could impact the debt market.

Record rise in German bond yields

The bond market also reacted to the news. Futures on the 10-year German Bund fell 0.7%, signaling a likely decline in cash bond prices. On Wednesday, the yield on the 10-year German bond, considered the euro zone's benchmark, showed a sharp jump of more than 30 basis points. It was the biggest one-day increase in yields in 28 years.

The move suggests that investors are reconsidering their expectations for the future of European monetary policy and the possible easing of fiscal constraints in the region's largest economy, Germany.

The euro continues to climb

On the foreign exchange market, the European currency is gaining ground. The euro rose 0.25% to $1.0815, slightly below the four-month high hit early in the Asian session.

The euro has been growing steadily since the start of the week, up more than 4%, its biggest weekly gain since March 2009. This growth is due not only to events in Germany, but also to expectations of an easing of the ECB's monetary policy and easing fears of a recession in the eurozone.

Dollar under pressure: rate falls to four-month low

The US currency weakened amid changing market expectations regarding the future policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS). The dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of six leading world currencies, fell to 104.11, its lowest since early November.

The dollar's weakness is linked to expectations of a key US labor market report to be released on Friday. Investors are closely watching the employment data, as it could provide further signals about the Fed's further actions regarding interest rates.

Gold steady ahead of economic data

The precious metals market is showing stability as investors take a wait-and-see approach ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. Gold prices are holding steady at $2,921.39 an ounce, reflecting traders' caution as they weigh the implications for the Fed's monetary policy.

Traditionally seen as a safe haven asset, gold prices can move significantly based on economic data. If the labour market report shows weaker employment, this could increase expectations for monetary easing soon, which would support demand for precious metals.

Oil on the brink: Pressure from inventories and OPEC+ decisions

The oil market remains under pressure after a sharp decline in previous sessions. The main factors weighing on prices were a significant increase in US crude inventories, OPEC+ plans to increase production and new US trade restrictions on energy supplies.

Brent crude futures remain near a three-year low set on Wednesday. The slide in oil prices deepened after U.S. Energy Department data showed an unexpected jump in inventories, suggesting a slowdown in demand for the commodity.

Additional pressure on the market came from OPEC+, which signaled that member countries would revise their output upwards. This has caused concern among investors that additional supply could exacerbate the glut.

Markets await key signals

Financial markets are in a holding pattern, with investors closely monitoring upcoming economic data and key regulatory decisions. A weaker dollar, stable gold, and volatile oil prices all point to a high degree of uncertainty. Friday's employment report could be a decisive factor in determining how markets move in the coming weeks.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forecast for EUR/USD on March 6, 2025

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On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement, consolidating above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0734 and breaking through the resistance zone of 1.0781–1.0797. This suggests that the uptrend could extend toward the next Fibonacci level of 200.0% at 1.0857. A consolidation below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone would favor the U.S. dollar and provide hope for at least some corrective decline in the pair.

The wave structure on the hourly chart has transformed. The last completed downward wave broke below the previous low, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous peak. This confirms that the market is now in a bullish trend. However, the current rally appears impulsive, driven by fears of an economic slowdown in the U.S. due to measures implemented by Donald Trump.

Wednesday's fundamental backdrop was notably weak. The business activity indices from Germany, the Eurozone, and the U.S. were unlikely to be the catalysts behind another aggressive rally in the euro, which surged by another 170 points. Business activity in the Eurozone's services sector slowed, Germany's services sector also showed a decline, while the ISM Services PMI in the U.S. actually improved. The million-dollar question is: which currency should have strengthened based on this data? Clearly, not the euro.

Today's ECB meeting will likely result in a decision to continue monetary policy easing. Typically, a dovish ECB stance is a bearish factor for the euro. While the market may have already priced in this decision, the fact remains that the euro continues to rise. Is the rally really driven by expectations of ECB rate cuts? At the moment, the market is trading solely on headlines related to Donald Trump. Bulls feel strong support, while any data that contradicts the euro's rise is simply being ignored.

On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD has broken above its previous consolidation range, reinforcing a bullish trend confirmed by the ascending price channel. The pair is breaking through key levels one after another with no significant pullbacks. No bearish divergences are forming at the moment. While the euro's rally is being fueled by U.S. political developments, the remainder of the week still holds several key economic data releases. There is still a chance for a dollar recovery.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

In the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 12,379 new long positions while closing 13,616 short positions. The "Non-commercial" category remains net bearish, but bearish sentiment has been weakening recently. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 182,000, while short positions have decreased to 208,000.

For 20 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing their euro holdings, reinforcing a clear bearish trend. Occasionally, bullish sentiment prevails for a week or two, but this is more of an exception than the rule. The monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar, as rate differentials are still expected to widen. While the bearish advantage is starting to weaken, it is too early to declare the end of the downtrend. Long positions have been rising for the past four weeks.

Key Economic Events for the Eurozone and the U.S.:

• Eurozone – Retail Sales (10:00 UTC)
• Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision (13:15 UTC)
• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)
• Eurozone – ECB Press Conference (13:45 UTC)

On March 6, the economic calendar includes four key releases, with two of them holding significant importance. The impact of these events on market sentiment throughout the day is expected to be moderate.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling opportunities will arise if the pair closes below the 1.0781–1.0797 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.0734 and 1.0622. Long positions remain an option, but the pair's strong and uninterrupted rally is concerning. A sharp reversal is always a possibility after such a one-sided move.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.0529 to 1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.0603 to 1.1214 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD – March 6th: Bulls Welcome Donald Trump's Actions

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On the hourly chart, GBP/USD continued its upward movement on Wednesday after consolidating above the resistance zone of 1.2788–1.2801 and the 100.0% corrective level at 1.2810. The bulls are now approaching the 1.2931 level, which just yesterday seemed like a distant target. However, the U.S. dollar is falling relentlessly due to Donald Trump's policies and his administration's decisions. For four consecutive days, these actions have weakened the dollar. Bulls won't attack indefinitely, but at this point, there are no technical signals for selling. A consolidation above 1.2931 will increase the likelihood of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.3003.

The wave structure is clear. The last completed downward wave did not break below the previous low, while the new upward wave has surpassed the last peak. This confirms the formation of a bullish trend. The pound has been experiencing strong growth lately—perhaps too strong. The fundamental backdrop does not appear robust enough to justify such an uninterrupted rally.

On Wednesday, market sentiment remained unaffected by news. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's calls for a peaceful resolution to trade disputes and the strong ISM Services PMI from the U.S. had no impact on traders. There was a slight negative factor—the ADP employment report in the U.S. came in significantly weaker than expected. However, it's worth noting that there is no direct correlation between ADP data and Nonfarm Payrolls. A weak ADP report does not necessarily mean that NFP will be weak as well. At this point, weak economic data is just adding to an already negative environment for the dollar.

Donald Trump announced a one-month delay in tariffs on Mexican and Canadian automakers. Additionally, some goods will be excluded from the sanctions list. However, this news has little impact. The dollar is in freefall, and any easing of Trump's trade pressure is unlikely to spark a significant recovery in the U.S. currency.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD continues its upward trend, consolidating above the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861. This supports the potential for further gains toward the next corrective level at 38.2%—1.2994. A strong decline in the pound is unlikely unless there is a confirmed breakout below the ascending channel. No bearish divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders became less bearish last week. The number of long positions increased by 525, while short positions declined by 4,517. Although bulls have lost some advantage in the market, bears have not significantly increased their positions either. The gap between long and short positions remains minimal: 74,000 versus 69,000.

Despite the pound's recent rally, there are still prospects for a decline. The COT report signals a slow but steady strengthening of bearish positions. Over the past three months, the number of long contracts has decreased from 120,000 to 74,000, while short positions have dropped from 75,000 to 69,000. Over time, professional traders are likely to continue reducing long positions or increasing short positions, as most of the bullish fundamental factors supporting the pound have already been priced in.

The pound has received temporary support from relatively strong UK economic data. However, the current chart analysis continues to indicate an uptrend.

Key Economic Events for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC)

On Thursday, the economic calendar includes only one secondary report, meaning the fundamental backdrop is unlikely to significantly influence market sentiment.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling opportunities for GBP/USD are possible today if the pair rebounds from the 1.2931 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.2810. Buying was possible after a close above the 1.2788–1.2801 zone on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.2931. This level is now nearly reached. If the pair consolidates above it, holding long positions toward 1.3003 may be justified.

Fibonacci retracement levels are plotted from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Bitcoin and Ethereum regaining consciousness

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Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum gained between 3% and 5%, sparking discussions that the sharp correction observed in recent weeks may be nearing its end.

News that China has intensified its fiscal and monetary stimulus—promising to boost consumption and mitigate the impact of escalating trade tensions with the US—could support demand for risk assets. The increase in global liquidity, fueled by US fiscal measures, could spill over into various risky assets, including Bitcoin.

China is expected to increase fiscal stimulus by issuing 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to bolster consumption, along with monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and lower reserve requirements. Historically, large-scale stimulus policies and monetary easing have coincided with optimistic trends in cryptocurrency markets.

Even though cryptocurrencies are officially banned in China, the connection between China's stimulus policies and crypto markets lies in increased liquidity and risk appetite. When governments inject capital into the economy, some of it may flow into alternative markets like crypto, seeking higher returns. Lower interest rates also reduce the attractiveness of traditional investments, pushing investors to explore other opportunities.

However, it's important to note that this correlation is not direct. The crypto market is influenced by multiple factors, including global economic conditions, technological developments, and investor sentiment.

Trump's crypto conference on March 7 could be a key market driver

In the short term, the direction of the crypto market could be influenced by US President Donald Trump's statements at the upcoming crypto conference on March 7. Many market participants expect positive developments and clarity regarding the US reserve crypto fund that Trump plans to establish.

Investors are hopeful that Trump will specify his crypto strategy and possibly support legislative initiatives that favor the industry. Such moves could significantly boost investor confidence and attract new capital inflows.

However, skeptical voices remain. Some analysts believe Trump's statements may be populist—aimed at gaining attention rather than genuinely supporting the crypto market. They fear that a lack of a clear strategy or unrealistic promises could disappoint investors and trigger another market sell-off.

Technical outlook for Bitcoin

Currently, buyers are targeting a return to the $92,200 level, which opens the door to $94,000, followed by $96,400. The ultimate target is $98,000—a breakout above this level would confirm a return to the medium-term bull market. In case of a Bitcoin pullback, buyers are expected at $89,900. A drop below this level could accelerate a decline toward $87,700, with the final support zone at $85,600.

Technical outlook for Ethereum

A clear breakout above $2,313 would open the door to $2,395, with the ultimate target at $2,489. A move above this level would confirm a return to the medium-term bull market. In case of an Ethereum decline, buyers are expected at $2,223. A break below this level could push ETH toward $2,138, with the final support zone at $2,055.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US market rebounds from strong support

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S&P 500

Overview for March 6

US market: growth from strong support

On Wednesday, major US stock indices saw gains: Dow Jones +1.1%, NASDAQ +1.5%, and S&P 500 +1.1%. The S&P 500 ended at 5,842, within a range of 5,650–6,200.

The stock market posted growth across all sectors.

The S&P 500 surged by 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1%, and the NASDAQ Composite climbed by 1.5%.

The session started slowly, but buying activity picked up significantly in the second half of the day, driven by the following factors: White House spokesperson Caroline Levitt announced that President Trump would provide a one-month exemption from tariffs for US automakers operating in both the United States and Mexico.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book for February showed a slight increase in economic activity since mid-January.

The S&P 500 index remained above its 200-day moving average (5,728) at the session's lows. There was noticeable activity in closing short positions, and trading focused on buying the dips following recent declines. Mega-cap stocks benefited from a surge in buying activity, which provided an additional boost to major indices.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK), which had been down 0.8% from the opening price at its worst point of the day, closed with a 1.5% increase.

NVIDIA (NVDA 117.30, +1.31, +1.1%) and Microsoft (MSFT 401.02, +12.41, +3.2%) led the way, contributing to a 1.4% gain in the tech sector.

Seven sectors of the S&P 500 saw an increase of over 1.0%, with only two sectors closing in the red.

The energy sector (-1.5%) was the worst performer, falling along with oil prices (66.27 USD per barrel, -2.03, -3.0%), reflecting ongoing concerns about economic growth and its potential impact on demand.

The moderate movement in stocks was influenced by mixed news. There were some optimistic rumors that certain districts might receive tariff exemptions, though reports also indicated that the relief would not consist of tariff rate cuts but instead include changes to the USMCA rules.

The stock market also reacted to Germany's major new fiscal plan to improve infrastructure and increase defense spending, in contrast to U.S. efforts to reduce government spending. In response, the value of German bonds dropped sharply, and the yield on 10-year German bonds jumped by 28 basis points to 2.79%.

In the meantime, the EUR/USD pair soared to 1.0800, with the US dollar index moving lower.

Year-to-date:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.1% S&P 500: -0.7% S&P Midcap 400: -3.4%

Nasdaq Composite: -3.9% Russell 2000: -5.8%

Economic data review:

MBA Weekly Mortgage Index: +20.4%; Prior: -1.2%

February ADP Employment Change: 77K (Consensus: 145K); Prior: revised to 186K from 183K.

S&P Services PMI for February: Final reading of 51.0; Prior: 49.7

February ISM Services PMI: 53.5%; Consensus: 53.0%; Prior: 52.8%

The key takeaway from the report is that the expansion of the largest sector in the country—services—accelerated in February, easing concerns about market growth. However, the acceleration in activity was accompanied by higher prices.

January Factory Orders: +1.7%; Consensus: +1.3%; Prior: revised to -0.6% from -0.9%.

The report highlights not only a recovery in aircraft and parts orders but also strong growth in business spending, as evidenced by a 0.8% jump in new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft.

Thursday's economic calendar includes:

8:30 AM ET: January Trade Balance (Consensus: -$93.5B; Preliminary forecast: -$98.4B)

Revised Q4 Productivity (Consensus: +1.2%; Previous: +1.2%)

Revised Q4 Labor Costs (Consensus: +3.0%; Previous: +3.0%)

Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Consensus: 234K; Previous: 242K) and Continuing Claims (Previous: 1.862M)

10:00 AM ET: January Wholesale Inventories (Consensus: +0.7%; Previous: -0.5%)

10:30 AM ET: Weekly Natural Gas Stocks (Previous: -261B cubic feet)

Energy:

Brent crude oil: $69.70. Brent dropped below $70, marking the lowest level of the year. Oil prices are under pressure due to concerns over the US economy.

Conclusion: The US market is well-positioned to show new growth towards its one-year highs, but we are still awaiting the February jobs report scheduled for Friday. Therefore, it is recommended to keep holding long positions from support levels.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Stock Market on March 6th: The Decline in S&P 500 and NASDAQ Halted

.Yesterday, futures on U.S. stock indices rebounded from their weekly lows. During today's Asian session, S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ rose 0.2%.The bond market saw a major sell-off in Asia on Thursday, pushing Japanese bond yields to their highest level in over a decade, following a broad-based sell-off in German bonds, which spread to global fixed-income markets. The stock market rally was largely fueled by speculation about a possible postponement of U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Japan's 10-year bond yield climbed to 1.5% for the first time since June 2009, as the country grapples with rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise for the third consecutive day, with the 10-year yield hovering around 4.3%. European stock futures edged higher, posting gains between 0.5% and 0.7%.

Daily volatility underscores the impact of geopolitical instability in recent weeks, particularly the weakening U.S. support for Ukraine and ongoing trade tensions, which continue to shape trader and investor sentiment.

The euro posted its best three-day rally since 2015, ahead of today's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. Analysts overwhelmingly predict a 25-basis-point rate cut, but this decision appears to have been already priced into the market. Key U.S. economic data set for release on Thursday includes weekly jobless claims, ahead of the highly anticipated non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

As noted earlier, German government bonds extended their decline on Wednesday, as markets increasingly expect the ECB to continue cutting rates to stimulate economic growth and support increased fiscal spending.

Asian Markets and China's Economic Ambitions

Stock indices in Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong posted gains. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index surged by 3.3%, reflecting rising investor expectations for additional stimulus measures. These could be announced later today during a joint press conference by China's government ministries in Beijing.

On Wednesday, Chinese officials at their annual parliamentary session reaffirmed a growth target of around 5% by 2025, marking the first time in over a decade that Beijing has maintained the same target for three consecutive years. President Xi Jinping signaled China's commitment to pushing forward with its ambitious growth agenda this year, despite mounting trade tensions.

U.S. stock futures remain stable, despite pressure on technology stocks. Shares of Marvell Technology Inc. dropped in after-hours trading in New York, following a disappointing revenue forecast, which dampened investor expectations for a stronger return from the AI boom. Meanwhile, Broadcom Inc., another AI-linked chipmaker, fell by 3.5% in premarket trading on Thursday, ahead of its earnings report.

Technical Outlook for S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues its decline, with the main objective for buyers being to break through the nearest resistance level at $5,854. A successful move above this level could extend the rally and open the door for a push toward $5,877.

Another key priority for bulls will be maintaining control above $5,897, which would further reinforce buying momentum.

If risk appetite wanes, buyers must defend the $5,833 support level. A break below this threshold could accelerate selling pressure, pushing the index down to $5,813, with further downward potential toward $5,787.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Forex forecast 06/03/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USDX, SP500 and Bitcoin

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We introduce you to the daily updated section of Forex analytics where you will find reviews from forex experts, up-to-date monitoring of financial information as well as online forecasts of exchange rates of the US dollar, euro, ruble, bitcoin, and other currencies for today, tomorrow and this trading week.

Useful links:

My other articles are available in this section

InstaForex course for beginners

Popular Analytics

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Important:

The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp market fluctuations due to increased volatility. If you decide to trade during the news release, then always place stop orders to minimize losses.

Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes. For successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan and stay focues and disciplined. Spontaneous trading decision based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for a scalper or daytrader.

#instaforex #analysis #sebastianseliga

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

US Market News Digest for March 6

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US stock indices rise amid easing tariff barriers

US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and NASDAQ all up more than 1%. Investors reacted positively to the White House's decision to exempt certain regions from tariffs, which boosted interest in equities. Additional momentum came from positive service sector employment data. However, the energy sector declined due to falling oil prices. Germany announced a major fiscal plan to modernize infrastructure and increase defense spending, in contrast to the US policy of cutting government spending. This led to a sharp drop in the value of German bonds and an increase in their yield to 2.79%.

While equity markets have found support, caution persists ahead of key macroeconomic data. Volatility is on the rise, creating new opportunities for traders, particularly in the tech and financial sectors. Follow the link for details.

Investors await Fed action, S&P 500 holds near support

The US stock market continues to rally on the back of tariff exemptions, particularly for the automotive industry. This eases pressure on companies, but recession fears remain. Investors are closely watching the jobs report and awaiting comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Financial markets are already pricing in three potential rate cuts in 2025, instead of two, which could give the S&P 500 an additional boost.

The Fed remains a key factor that could support the stock market if the White House doesn't introduce new stimulus measures. As decisions are awaited, volatility is increasing, creating entry points for short-term trading and opportunities for long-term stock holding. Follow the link for details.

US and European futures rise, but geopolitical tensions linger

Futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices are on the rise amid expectations of tariff delays and monetary policy changes in Europe. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to climb, surpassing 4.3%, signaling the market's repricing of risk. In Japan, the yield on 10-year bonds reached 1.5% for the first time since 2009 due to rising inflation and higher borrowing costs. European stock indices also gained, adding between 0.5% and 0.7%.

High volatility in the markets provides traders with more trading opportunities. The focus remains on US macroeconomic data, changes in monetary policy, and geopolitical developments. In times like these, it is crucial to work with favorable trading conditions: low commissions and tight spreads that help minimize costs. Follow the link for details.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

From delays to exemptions: S&P 500 finds support

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The S&P 500 found solid ground after the White House decided to exempt the auto industry from the 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. Donald Trump and his team are now considering another exception—agricultural products, particularly potash and fertilizers. This move could provide yet another boost for US stocks.

However, the revision of the tariff list was not the only reason for the S&P 500's rebound. Support also came from international markets. Germany plans to create a €500 billion special infrastructure fund and exempt defense spending from fiscal constraints. The European Union is preparing to increase military spending by €800 billion. China has maintained its 5% GDP growth target, signaling further fiscal and monetary stimulus. Countries are bracing for trade wars, which suggests that such conflicts won't completely derail the global economy.

Recession fears grow for the US economy

Meanwhile, recession risks for the US economy have resurfaced. According to JP Morgan, the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has risen from 17% to 31% since late November. Goldman Sachs estimates that the scenario has increased from 14% in January to 23%.

Recession risks for US stocks

A recession spells trouble for US stocks. Donald Trump's statement that America must endure "some pain" before entering a new Golden Age is not reassuring for investors. The President's rapid tariff rollout has shattered market hopes that his threats were merely a bluff.

At the same time, Elon Musk is also pushing forward aggressively, accelerating efforts to reduce government bureaucracy—a move that could further slow the US economy. A fresh warning sign came with February's ADP employment report, which showed only 77,000 new private-sector jobs, the smallest increase in two years. Fearing the White House's aggressive protectionism, companies are hesitant to expand hiring.

Will Powell step in to support the market?

Investors are now eagerly awaiting US labor market data and Jerome Powell's comments. If Trump refuses to throw a lifeline to the S&P 500, could the Federal Reserve Chairman step in instead?

Signs of a cooling US economy have led futures markets to raise expectations for three rate cuts in 2025, up from two previously. If Powell confirms this outlook, it could trigger another wave of optimism for the S&P 500.

Technical outlook for S&P 500

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 has bounced off the expected support at 5,740, forming a potential bottom. The probability of consolidation is increasing, with the upper border likely near 5,940 or 5,980. A rejection from these levels could signal profit-taking on long positions from the dip and a possible reversal.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 149.58 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move upward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying the dollar. However, the pair failed to rise, resulting in losses. By the middle of the session, a test of the 149.19 level took place when the MACD indicator started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the dollar. This led to a drop in the pair to the target of 148.50. Buying from that level on a rebound secured approximately 40 pips in profit.

Yesterday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech reinforced traders' confidence that the BOJ will continue raising interest rates, strengthening the yen against the dollar. The dollar has been under pressure recently due to speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to continue cutting interest rates. This would widen the policy gap between the central banks, further supporting the yen. In the coming days, market volatility will persist as traders continue analyzing economic data and central bank officials' comments for clues about future monetary policy trajectories.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if it reaches the entry point around 149.31 (green line on the chart), aiming for an increase to the 149.98 level (thicker green line on the chart). At the 149.98 level, I intend to exit the buy position and open a sell trade in the opposite direction, expecting a downward movement of 30-35 pips. Buying the pair is best done on corrections and significant pullbacks of USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests the 148.95 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 149.31 and 149.98 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 148.95 level (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 148.26 level, where I intend to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy trade in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips upwards. Pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises if the price tests the 149.31 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 148.95 and 148.26 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.2814 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. However, as seen on the chart, the decline never materialized. Instead, another price increase led to a test of the 1.2846 level during the middle of the US session. This test coincided with the start of the MACD indicator moving up from the zero mark, which allowed for a buying opportunity, resulting in a gain of about 50 pips, covering the losses from selling and even securing some profit.

Considering that even weak UK services sector data did not trigger a proper correction for the pound, this indicates the strength of the bullish trend. In the short term, the pound appears overbought, but a strong reason for a meaningful correction has yet to emerge. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic indicators and signals from the central bank. A breakout of key support levels may confirm the start of a deeper correction, while stability above these levels would indicate the continuation of the upward trend.

Today, the UK Construction PMI data is set to be released, but even weak figures are unlikely to prompt traders to sell the pound. Contrary to expectations, the British currency remains remarkably resilient, reflecting broader confidence in the economy rather than just in a single sector. Geopolitical factors could trigger a sharp correction in the pound, but for now, the upward trend remains intact, with no signs of reversal.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today if it reaches the entry point around 1.2918 (green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.2959 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.2959 level, I intend to exit the buy position and open a sell trade in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips downward. The pound is expected to continue rising within the ongoing uptrend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests the 1.2890 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.2918 and 1.2959 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after breaking below the 1.2890 level (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2855 level, where I intend to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy trade in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips upwards. Selling the pound is preferable at the highest possible level. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises if the price tests the 1.2918 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2890 and 1.2855 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 6. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0685 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. However, as seen on the chart, a proper correction never materialized, and the euro continued to rise, resulting in losses.

Despite strong data from the US services sector activity, the US dollar remained pressured against the euro. This indicates that the dollar's position is currently weak and that discussions about rate cuts in the US are not without reason.

The European currency, on the other hand, is showing resilience. It is supported by expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from the European Central Bank and new fiscal measures from the German government, which will likely be followed by other countries.

A significant event is scheduled for today in the first half of the day—the ECB meeting. Most experts believe the central bank will lower interest rates, which has already been factored into the market. Therefore, the reaction to the monetary policy report and Christine Lagarde's press conference is unpredictable. Besides the rate decision, attention will be focused on the ECB's updated economic forecasts. Investors and analysts will soon closely examine the central bank's expectations for inflation and economic growth in the eurozone. Hints of worsening forecasts could increase expectations for further policy easing.

Equally important is how Christine Lagarde will present the decision and forecasts during the press conference. Her tone and rhetoric will influence market sentiment as investors seek signals about the ECB's future policy.

Overall, the ECB meeting will be eventful and impact financial markets, but geopolitical factors should also be considered, as they could add to the uncertainty.

For intraday strategy, I will focus more on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buying the euro today is possible at the 1.0825 level (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to 1.0897. At 1.0897, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Euro growth in the first half of the day can be expected only after strong economic data from the eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: Another buying opportunity arises if the price tests the 1.0781 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0825 and 1.0897 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Selling the euro is planned after reaching the 1.0781 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0707, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the other direction. Pressure on the pair will return if the ECB makes very poor decisions. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: Another selling opportunity arises if the price tests the 1.0825 level twice in succession while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0781 and 1.0707 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on March 6

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The euro and the pound continue to rise against the US dollar. Discussions about the need for further rate cuts in the US are putting pressure on the dollar, while Germany's new fiscal policy initiatives support risk assets.

Lower interest rates in the US, although weakening the dollar, can stimulate economic growth, supporting risk assets. However, uncertainty regarding the scale and timing of rate cuts creates market nervousness. At the same time, Germany's fiscal stimulus measures to support the economy positively impact investor sentiment. Increased government spending could boost GDP growth and job creation, making German assets more attractive.

Despite strong US ISM services sector activity data, the dollar remained under pressure against the euro. The euro, in turn, strengthened due to expectations regarding the European Central Bank's future monetary policy. Investors believe that the ECB will continue cutting interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which, given the current complex geopolitical situation, is working in favor of the euro rather than against it.

In addition to the interest rate decision, the ECB's updated economic forecasts will be closely monitored. Traders will carefully analyze the regulator's expectations for inflation and economic growth in the eurozone in the coming years. Any hints of downward revisions in the forecasts could strengthen expectations for further monetary policy easing.

Christine Lagarde's presentation of the interest rate decision and economic forecasts at the press conference will be particularly important. Her tone and rhetoric could significantly influence market sentiment. Any signals regarding the future trajectory of ECB policy could trigger market volatility and strengthen the euro.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, following a Mean Reversion strategy is best. A Momentum strategy is recommended if the data is significantly higher or lower than expected.

Momentum Strategy (on breakout):

EUR/USD

Buying on a breakout above 1.0820 could push the euro towards 1.0855 and 1.0885.

Selling on a breakout below 1.0790 could lead to a decline towards 1.0750 and 1.0715.

GBP/USD

Buying on a breakout above 1.2920 could push the pound towards 1.2945 and 1.2980.

Selling on a breakout below 1.2885 could lead to a decline towards 1.2850 and 1.2808.

USD/JPY

Buying on a breakout above 149.00 could push the dollar towards 149.50 and 150.00.

Selling on a breakout below 148.80 could trigger a selloff towards 148.30 and 147.90.

Mean Reversion Strategy (on pullbacks):

EUR/USD

Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.0825, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.0771, followed by a return above this level.

GBP/USD

Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.2910, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.2876, followed by a return above this level.

AUD/USD

Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 0.6360, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 0.6327, followed by a return above this level.

USD/CAD

Look for selling opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout above 1.4362, followed by a return below this level.

Look for buying opportunities after an unsuccessful breakout below 1.4299, followed by a return above this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.