Daily Forex market analysis - graphical, wave and technical analysis online

Investors favor global assets

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In 2025, the strategies of "Buy America" and "Sell America" alternated. In 2026, these may be replaced by the slogan "anything but America." The slowing economic growth in the United States, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's policies, decreasing confidence in US-issued assets, and challenges related to artificial intelligence are prompting investors to fill their portfolios with what they previously lacked. Will the S&P 500 withstand such capital outflow pressure?

Dynamics of US and Global Stock Index Ratio

2025 is set to be the best year for the global stock market since 2009. The global MSCI ex USA has risen by more than 29%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500, which gained only 17%. Emerging market indices increased by 30%, while the Chinese MSCI jumped by 29%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose by 28%. The whole world appeared stronger than the US. However, due to advances in artificial intelligence and a loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, capital that had turned toward Europe and Asia has managed to flow back into the United States.

Can the S&P 500 gain support from these factors in 2026? The outcome will depend on the pace of federal funds rate cuts and the ability of technology companies to generate adequate profits from their significant investments. The futures market anticipates two acts of monetary expansion from the Fed. However, if Donald Trump can fill the FOMC with dovish members, that number could increase.

Technology companies are transitioning from a race to train artificial intelligence to promoting it to the masses. NVIDIA is facing serious competition from other giants, including Alphabet and Amazon. It is not surprising that NVIDIA seeks to strike a $20 billion deal with the startup Groq, which develops chips and software for AI deployment.

The potential slowing of US GDP, Trump's eccentricities, and waning interest in artificial intelligence technology do not deter Wall Street experts. Major banks predict a 9% growth for the S&P 500 in 2026, with none of the respondents anticipating a decline in the broad market index.

Wall Street's S&P 500 Predictions

If these estimates come to fruition, the US stock market will be under the influence of bulls for the fourth consecutive year, marking the longest winning streak in two decades. Since the lows of October 2022, the S&P 500 has increased by 90%. The highest forecast of 8,000 comes from Oppenheimer, while the lowest is from Stifel Nicolaus.

Thus, Wall Street experts believe that the broad market index will be able to withstand numerous headwinds.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart of the S&P 500 showed a market pullback with a downward gap. Typically, gap filling in a bullish market serves as a basis for buying. Therefore, a return of the broad market index to the 6,922 level would provide an opportunity to increase previously opened long positions.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro:

The test of the price at 1.1770 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 15 pips.

It seems that market players have adapted to President Trump's unconventional communication style despite his attacks on the Federal Reserve. Investors probably assume that dismissing the Fed Chair, as Trump stated during an interview yesterday, is unlikely before Powell's term ends in May of next year. Consequently, the EUR/USD currency pair remained within the channel, showing no pronounced direction.

Today also appears to be relatively quiet. The absence of economic reports from the Eurozone in the first half of the day suggests minimal volatility. This pause in the flow of macroeconomic news allows market participants to focus on technical analysis, which may have only an indirect impact on currency dynamics. Special attention, similar to yesterday, should be given to any unexpected statements from political figures or central bank leaders, as they can cause spikes in volatility even in the absence of scheduled reports.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, you can buy the euro at around 1.1785 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1817. At point 1.1817, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro can only be anticipated within the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I will also look to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1770 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the levels of 1.1785 and 1.1817.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1770 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1745, where I will exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Some pressure on the pair may be noticeable today in the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1785 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.1770 and 1.1745.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the price at 156.31 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero mark, limiting the pair's downside potential. The second test of the price at 156.13 led to the realization of Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but it did not yield significant gains.

Yesterday's remarks by Trump directed at Powell did not destabilize the situation in the currency market. This is likely because the legal aspects of the potential dismissal remain ambiguous, and market participants assess the likelihood of actual implementation as minimal. Investors likely also took into account that, despite the pressure from authorities, the Federal Reserve retains a degree of autonomy enshrined in legislation. While any attempts at political influence on central bank activities could provoke negative reactions not only from market players but also from the public, this did not happen yesterday.

Given the lack of key data from Japan and the US, it is likely the pair will remain within the channel it has been in since the middle of last week until the end of the year.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 156.12 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 156.38 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.37, I intend to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 155.95 twice, during which the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards the opposite levels of 156.12 and 156.38.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 155.95 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 155.72 level, where I intend to exit the short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips). It is best to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 156.12 twice in a row, during which the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 155.95 and 155.72.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on December 30. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades

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Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the price at 1.3483 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was starting its downward movement from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair only dropped by 10 pips.

Despite the potential instability that could result from an open confrontation between the president and the head of the US central bank, investors seemed to have taken a wait-and-see approach. This may be because the legal aspects of dismissing Powell, which Trump hinted at yesterday, remain contentious, and the market assesses the probability of such an action as low. Furthermore, Trump's remarks may have been perceived as yet another attempt to pressure the Federal Reserve into easing monetary policy. The lack of key economic data from the US also contributed to the market's restrained reaction.

Today, there is again no report from the UK, so trading is likely to remain within a sideways channel. The absence of macroeconomic drivers capable of pulling the British pound out of this prolonged consolidation leaves traders waiting. Focus is shifting to external factors: the dynamics of the global economy and any geopolitical risks that may indirectly affect the British currency. In the absence of domestic indicators, market participants will closely monitor news from the Eurozone and the US. Technical analysis will play a crucial role in the current situation. Traders will focus on support and resistance levels, as well as graphic patterns, to determine potential entry and exit points.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3528 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3555 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 1.3555, I plan to exit the long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is unlikely to expect strong growth from the pound today. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3506 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected at the opposite levels of 1.3538 and 1.3555.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3506 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3472 level, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level). Pound sellers may manifest within the scope of a correction. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3528 twice in a row, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards the opposite levels of 1.3506 and 1.3472.

What to Look for on the Chart:

• Thin Green Line – Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line – Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line – Expected price where you can set Take Profit or self-lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold areas.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on December 30

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The euro, pound, and Japanese yen have continued to trade within ranges.

Yesterday's statements by Trump about the potential firing of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell became one of the day's most significant events. However, this did not affect the market dynamics. Despite the rhetoric against the Fed's independence, the markets appear to have grown accustomed to Trump's unconventional communication style. Traders may have concluded that firing the Fed Chair, while technically possible, is unlikely. Furthermore, the lack of significant economic data from the US left market participants without guidance or incentives to trade actively. Usually, the release of key macroeconomic indicators, such as employment, inflation, or GDP data, causes fluctuations in the currency market. However, during this period, attention was focused on political statements, while economic data took a back seat.

Today also promises to be fairly calm. There are no significant reports for the Eurozone and the UK in the first half of the day, which should not lead to serious market fluctuations. The wave of expectations and speculation typically surrounding key data releases has given way to silence, allowing markets to reassess recent events and outline a further course amid relative stability. This pause in macroeconomic news offers traders the opportunity to focus on New Year celebrations and the analysis of technical indicators.

If the data aligns with economists' expectations, it is better to act based on the Mean Reversion strategy. If the data are significantly above or below economists' expectations, the best approach would be to use the Momentum strategy.

Momentum Strategy (Breakout):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.1785, which could lead to a rise in the euro to around 1.1807 and 1.1840.
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.1754, which could lead to a decline of the euro to around 1.1730 and 1.1706.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 1.3531, which could lead to a rise in the pound to around 1.3561 and 1.3590.
• Sell on a breakout of level 1.3500, which could result in a decline of the pound to around 1.3470 and 1.3442.

For the USD/JPY Pair

• Buy on a breakout of level 156.30, which could lead to a rise of the dollar to around 156.68 and 157.05.
• Sell on a breakout of level 155.99, which could lead to the dollar falling to around 155.67 and 155.32.

Mean Reversion Strategy (Retracement):

For the EUR/USD Pair

• Look for short positions after a failed breakout above 1.1786, upon a return below this level.
• Look for long positions after a failed breakout below 1.1765 upon returning to this level.

For the GBP/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3524, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3492 upon returning to this level.

For the AUD/USD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 0.6725, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 0.6695 upon returning to this level.

For the USD/CAD Pair

• Look for shorts after a failed breakout above 1.3698, upon a return below this level.
• Look for longs after a failed breakout below 1.3675 upon returning to this level.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the EUR/USD Currency Pair on December 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Monday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

The EUR/USD currency pair again showed no notable movements on Monday but formed a very important technical signal. Throughout the day, the ascending trend line that has been supporting the growth of the European currency for about three weeks was engaged. The price bounced off the trend line, providing technical grounds for the resumption of the euro's growth. If the euro rises on December 30-31, it is likely the British pound will appreciate as well. In general, there is not much more to analyze from yesterday; the macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop was absent, the holidays continue, and volatility is minimal. The euro retains excellent growth prospects and is still very close to the 1.1800-1.1830 range, the upper boundary of the six-month lateral channel 1.1430-1.1800. Therefore, we are almost sure that this area will be surpassed soon, and the global upward trend of 2025 will resume.

5M Chart of the EUR/USD Pair

On the 5-minute timeframe, two buy signals were formed on Monday. The price bounced off the 1.1745-1.1754 area twice. In the first case, the price moved about 25 pips in the desired direction, while in the second case it moved even less, but the buy position could be left open in anticipation of continued growth on Tuesday. It is worth noting that an important bounce from the trend line was formed on the hourly timeframe, so the upward movement could continue.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair continues to form an upward trend. The price may soon retest the 1.1800-1.1830 area, which marks the upper boundary of the flat on the daily timeframe. It is quite possible that this time we will see a breakout from the six-month lateral channel. The overall fundamental and macroeconomic backdrop for the US dollar remains very weak, so we expect the pair to rise in the medium-term perspective.

On Tuesday, novice traders can trade in the area of 1.1745-1.1754. A bounce from this area will make long positions relevant with a target of 1.1808, and we have already seen two such bounces yesterday. A consolidation below this area will allow for short positions targeting 1.1666.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527-1.1531, 1.1550, 1.1584-1.1591, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports scheduled in the Eurozone or the US. Therefore, we might again expect very weak movements today.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair may form numerous false signals or none at all. At the first signs of a flat, it is better to stop trading.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the beginning of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferred to trade only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by the trend line or channel, using signals from the MACD indicator.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. Upon moving 15 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanations:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line; a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

How to Trade the GBP/USD Currency Pair on December 30? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

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Monday's Trade Analysis:

1H Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

The GBP/USD pair traded in a holiday style throughout Monday. Volatility was minimal, and the directional movement of the pair remained sideways all day. With a lack of macroeconomic and fundamental background, traders had nothing to respond to once again. Therefore, technically, an upward trend remains on the hourly timeframe, indicating that after the holidays, we can expect further growth of the British currency. It's worth recalling that global factors favor the British currency over the dollar. However, this week, it is unlikely we will see significant movements. While they are possible, predicting them is extremely difficult. Traders should rely solely on technical factors when making trading decisions.

5M Chart of the GBP/USD Pair

Over the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were generated on Monday. The price traded sideways all day with minimal volatility. Therefore, no level or area was engaged.

How to Trade on Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair has exited the flat and is moving upward again. We fully support this scenario, as we have repeatedly mentioned. There are no global reasons for the dollar to grow in the medium term, so we expect movement only to the upside. Overall, we anticipate the resumption of the global upward trend in 2025, which could push the pair towards 1.4000 in the coming months.

On Tuesday, novice traders can consider new long positions if the price surpasses the 1.3529-1.3543 area, targeting 1.3574-1.3590. Short positions will become relevant with a new bounce from the area of 1.3529-1.3543, targeting 1.3437-1.3446.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be conducted at the following levels: 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3203-1.3212, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3437-1.3446, 1.3529-1.3543, and 1.3574-1.3590. On Tuesday, there are no significant events scheduled in the UK or the US, and market volatility may remain low. The market is currently "thin," making it easier for market makers to move prices than during regular times. However, this does not automatically mean that they have the desire to do so.

Key Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is assessed by the time it takes to form the signal (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened near any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat, any pair can create numerous false signals or none at all. In any case, it's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all trades must be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, when trading based on signals from the MACD indicator, it is preferable to trade only when good volatility is present, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are positioned too closely to each other (5 to 20 points), they should be viewed as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 20 pips in the right direction, set the Stop Loss to breakeven.

Chart Explanation:

• Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.
• Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
• MACD Indicator (14, 22, 3): A histogram and signal line, a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important Note: Significant speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade cautiously or exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Remember: For beginners trading in the Forex market, it is important to understand that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are keys to long-term trading success.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for Ethereum for December 29-31, 2025: sell below $2,950 (21 SMA - 1/8 Murray)

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Ethereum is trading around $2,930 going through a technical correction after reaching the strong resistance zone around the 200 EMA and around the top of the downtrend channel formed since early December.

ETH/USD could be at risk of continuing to fall over the next few days if it consolidates below the psychological level of $3,000; it could even reach 1/8 of Murray around $2,812.

Ethereum should consolidate above $2,950 to look for opportunities to take long positions, and then it could reach $3,050 and even reach the 2/8 Murray around $3,125.

The Eagle indicator is showing a negative signal, so any technical rebound will be seen as an opportunity to open a position on the short-term target around $2,812. ETH could even reach the December 17 low around $2,750.

A break above $3,050 could change the scenario for ETH/USD, and we could expect it to return to the area of $3,125 and $3,375.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for December 29-31, 2025: buy above $87,700 (21 SMA - 2/8 Murray)

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Over the weekend, Bitcoin gained strong upward momentum above $87,500, reaching the resistance zone where the 200 EMA is located. This level coincided with the top of the downtrend channel located at $90,150.

After reaching the resistance zone of $90,000, Bitcoin underwent a technical correction and is now below 2/8 Murray, which indicates that it could continue its fall in the coming days.

If Bitcoin recovers in the coming hours and consolidates above $87,700, the outlook could be positive, and we could look for opportunities to open long positions with a target at $89,900 around the 200 EMA.

A sharp break of the downtrend channel formed since early December could be seen as an opportunity to take long positions with targets at 3/8 Murray located around $93,750, and even above this area, Bitcoin could reach the psychological level of $100,000.

If bearish pressure prevails and Bitcoin falls below $87,000, it is likely to continue its decline and could reach $86,200, $84,530, the low of December 18, and finally the 1/8 Murray around $81,250.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for December 29-31, 2025: sell below 1.1780 (21 SMA - 5/8 Murray)

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The euro is trading around 1.1772, below 5/8 Murray and below the 21 SMA, with low volume and within a downtrend channel formed since December 23.

If the euro consolidates below 1.1780 in the coming hours, the outlook could remain negative, and we expect it to reach the 200 EMA around 1.1685 in the coming days.

On the contrary, if the euro breaks and consolidates above the downtrend channel, we could expect a continuation of the main trend, and EUR/USD could reach 6/8 Murray around 1.1840.

The Eagle indicator is showing a positive signal, but we must wait for a break above 1.1780. If EUR/USD consolidates above this zone, it will be seen as an option to take long positions.

Our outlook remains bearish for the coming hours. Hence, at current price levels, we could look for opportunities to sell, with targets at 1.1745, the 4/8 Murray at 1.1718, and finally around 1.1680.

Over the last few weeks, the euro has consolidated around 1.1740 - 1.1770, and strong overbought levels are observed. It is likely that there will be a technical correction in the coming days, and the euro could even reach the psychological level of 1.1500.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Signals for GOLD for December 29-31, 2025: sell below $4,375 (rebound - 8/8 Murray)

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Gold is trading around $4,324, rebounding after reaching the December 18 support zone around $4,312.

Gold could recover some of its losses in the coming hours and could reach 8/8 Murray around $4,375. This level could be seen as an opportunity to resume selling operations.

If gold falls below yesterday's low and consolidates below $4,300, we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,260 and potentially accelerate its decline to reach the 6/8 Murray level around $4,062.

If gold continues to rebound in the coming hours, we could expect strong resistance at $4,375 to take short options with short-term targets around $4,260 and $4,200.

If gold consolidates above $4,375, the outlook could be positive. The price is expected to reach the 21 SMA around $4,467. This level is key as it represents the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which could be seen as an opportunity to open short positions.

If our strategy is to buy, we could look for opportunities to open long positions above $4,320 with targets at $4,375 and $4,450.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the GBP/USD Pair. December 30. Holiday Correction Will Not Hinder

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The GBP/USD currency pair traded rather sluggishly on Monday, with a downward corrective bias. However, we did not expect the market to surge just two days before the New Year and a few days after Christmas. It's a festive pause in the market. Indeed, we observe some price fluctuations, but these fluctuations have no significant impact and are essentially meaningless.

For the British pound, the situation remains rather mundane, especially on the daily timeframe. Over the weekend, we presented articles with a detailed analysis of this chart. On it, the GBP/USD pair has overcome the Ichimoku cloud after a classic three-wave correction that lasted about 4-5 months. Of course, this does not mean that the British currency cannot decline under any circumstances while the dollar rises. Here, fundamental analysis comes to our aid. What global, fundamental reasons does the dollar have to rise? This is the question we have been asking for three-quarters of 2025, and so far, we have not found an answer. Moreover, we believe that even within the second half of 2025, the dollar has "exceeded its plan." The US currency has risen stronger and longer than warranted by fundamentals. For instance, the European currency has found no reason to drop against the US dollar and has been trading flat for the past 6 months.

The British pound had reasons to fall in the second half of 2025, but these reasons were not strong enough to drive a 45% adjustment within the context of a global trend. Recall that the Bank of England, unlike the European Central Bank, continues to ease monetary policy, making the euro's position stronger than that of the British pound. Additionally, confusion arose in the UK regarding the budget for 2026 this autumn. Rumors circulated that Treasury Secretary Rachel Reeves would resign, and under pressure from criticism of her budget, she broke down in tears multiple times in Parliament. Ultimately, she raised a whole range of taxes to close the "gaps" in the budget.

It may seem that the pound's decline in response to these events is quite logical, but at the same time, where is the repercussion from the "shutdown," which is nothing less than similar budgetary chaos for 2026 in the US? Only in Britain was it possible to avoid a shutdown of government operations and all public structures, unlike in America. Thus, with the same set of problems, we believe it is the dollar that should have been falling this autumn, especially against the backdrop of renewed Fed monetary easing and the dismal state of the labor market.

Based on this set of factors and analytical conclusions, we believe that the global upward trend will be restored in any case. Therefore, the dollar's minimal growth during the New Year holidays does not bother us at all. Let's consider it a holiday gift.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 61 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average-low." On Tuesday, December 30, we expect the pair to trade within the range between 1.3428 and 1.3550. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned upward, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area 6 times in recent months and has formed numerous bullish divergences, consistently signaling a resumption of the upward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3489
• S2 – 1.3428
• S3 – 1.3367

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3550

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is attempting to resume the upward trend of 2025, and its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Donald Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the dollar; therefore, we do not expect the US currency to grow. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3550 remain relevant for the near term as long as the price stays above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, minor short positions may be considered, targeting 1.3428 and 1.3367 on technical grounds. From time to time, the US currency shows corrections (in the global context), but for a trend strengthening, it needs signs of an end to the trade war or other global positive factors.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help to identify the current trend. If both are pointing in one direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (20,0 smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel within which the pair will move over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility figures.
• The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Overview of the EUR/USD Pair. December 30. The Dollar Clings to a Straw

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The EUR/USD currency pair showed no interesting movements throughout Monday. In fact, the pair has been in a complete flat for six months, so it's not surprising that there was no volatility or traders on the market on December 29. The US currency has been gradually appreciating over the past few days; however, this increase is so minimal that it can be considered mere market noise. Moreover, all movements over the last six months could also be seen as market noise since the price has been primarily influenced by technical factors while largely ignoring fundamental and macroeconomic factors.

Essentially, the dollar is currently clinging to 1.1800. This level represents the upper line of the lateral channel at 1.1430-1.1800 on the daily timeframe. As long as the price remains below this level, at least a flat trend is maintained. This level is a lifeline for the dollar. The fact that the dollar had no reason to grow was evident even in December. What positive information did we receive from the US in December? The only thing that comes to mind is the GDP report, which has already been heavily criticized even by those analysts who occasionally praise the dollar.

It has become evident that the American economy's growth is entirely artificial. Explain how an economy can grow when the unemployment rate is rising, people are losing jobs, very few new jobs are being created, industrial production is hardly increasing, retail sales are stagnant, and business activity is declining in most cases.

We have already mentioned that Trump is not concerned about inflation levels. Even if inflation reaches 10%, as long as the economy is growing steadily, the US president would find this acceptable. What matters to Trump is having a solid reason to inform the American people about unprecedented growth. Whether this growth is merely "on paper" is irrelevant. Recall what Trump has said about potential increases in inflation? He believes that most Americans won't notice it, as they'll be "busy counting money in their wallets." After all, with a growing economy, every American should be earning significantly more. However, as we can see, prices in the US are increasing, while Americans are increasingly losing jobs or facing cuts to subsidies and support as Trump seeks to save the budget.

Thus, we have a situation where the American GDP is ostensibly growing at near-record rates, but in practice, such growth is not desired by anyone. Hence, the dollar hasn't seen a surge of optimism, and the market isn't eager to buy the American currency. We are still awaiting the breakout of the upper line of the lateral channel and the resumption of the global uptrend in 2025.

The average volatility of the EUR/USD currency pair over the last five trading days as of December 30 stands at 45 pips and is characterized as "low." We expect the pair to trade between 1.1709 and 1.1799 on Tuesday. The upper channel of the linear regression is turning upwards, but the flat trend continues on the daily timeframe. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice in October and visited the overbought area at the beginning of December. A slight pullback has already been observed.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.1719
• S2 – 1.1658
• S3 – 1.1597

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.1780
• R2 – 1.1841

Trading Recommendations:

The EUR/USD pair is above the moving average line, with an uptrend maintained across all higher timeframes, while the daily timeframe has been flat for the sixth consecutive month. The global fundamental backdrop remains highly significant for the market and remains negative for the dollar. Over the past six months, the dollar has shown occasional weakness, but only within the confines of a lateral channel. There is no fundamental basis for long-term strengthening.

If the price is below the moving average, minor short positions may be considered, targeting 1.1709, based solely on technical grounds. Above the moving average line, long positions remain relevant, with a target of 1.1830 (the upper line of the flat on the daily timeframe), which has already been reached in practice. Now the flat must conclude.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Linear regression channels help to identify the current trend. If both are pointing in one direction, the trend is currently strong.
• The moving average line (20,0 smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels – target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) – the probable price channel within which the pair will move over the next 24 hours, based on current volatility figures.
• The CCI indicator – its entry into the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal is nearing in the opposite direction.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on December 30. The Pound Sees No Sense in Rushing Events

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GBP/USD 5M Analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to trade with minimal volatility on Monday, with no significant macroeconomic or fundamental background. As a result, traders had neither the basis nor the desire to open trading positions. The technical picture has not changed, and there are no news items to analyze.

An upward trend persists on the hourly timeframe, along with a relevant ascending trendline. Thus, technically, the pound's upward movement can resume at any moment. However, it is unlikely to resume this week due to the empty event calendar and ongoing New Year celebrations worldwide. Nevertheless, the pair's medium-term outlook is clear. This does not mean that the British currency will appreciate throughout January. However, we have already discussed the overall fundamental picture many times. Thus, we expect only declines in the US dollar in 2026.

On the 5-minute timeframe, no trading signals were formed on Monday. The price failed to engage with either the critical line or the 1.3533-1.3548 area during the day. The day's overall volatility was 45 pips.

COT Report

COT reports for the British pound indicate that sentiment among commercial traders has fluctuated sharply in recent years. The red and blue lines, reflecting the net positions of commercial and non-commercial traders, routinely cross each other and are, in most cases, close to the zero mark. Currently, the lines are pulling apart, but non-commercial traders are dominating with their sell positions. Speculators are increasingly selling the pound, but, as mentioned, it does not matter how low the demand for the British currency is; it is often even lower for the US dollar.

The dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, as evident on the weekly timeframe (see illustration above). The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time. The Federal Reserve will reduce its rate regardless in the next 12 months. Demand for the dollar will, in any case, fall. According to the latest COT report (dated December 16) for the British pound, the "Non-commercial" group opened 1,600 BUY contracts and closed 25,400 SELL contracts. Thus, the net position of non-commercial traders increased by 27,000 contracts over the week.

In 2025, the pound appreciated significantly, but it should be understood that the reason is one: Trump's policy. Once this reason is mitigated, the dollar may start to rise, but nobody knows when.

GBP/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair continues to form a new upward trend, but the market is currently in a holiday pause. We believe the pound sterling will continue to grow in the medium term, regardless of the local macroeconomic and fundamental backdrop. The upward trend for the pound remains consistent across almost all timeframes.

For December 30, we highlight the following important levels: 1.2863, 1.2981-1.2987, 1.3042-1.3050, 1.3096-1.3115, 1.3201-1.3212, 1.3307, 1.3369-1.3377, 1.3437, 1.3533-1.3548, and 1.3584. The Senkou Span B line (1.3421) and the Kijun-sen line (1.3474) may also serve as sources of signals. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss order to breakeven when the price moves in the desired direction by 20 pips. The Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals.

On Tuesday, there are no important events or reports planned in the UK or the US. The upward movement may continue, but new buy signals are necessary. Flat conditions and low volatility are more likely today.

Trading Recommendations:

Today, traders may consider selling if the price consolidates below the critical line with a target of 1.3437. Long positions will become relevant if the price rebounds from the Kijun-sen line with a target of 1.3533-1.3548.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. These are not sources of trade signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines, from which the price has previously bounced. These are considered sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on December 30. The Holidays Continue

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EUR/USD 5M Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility on Monday. This is not surprising given that Christmas and New Year celebrations are ongoing worldwide. There are more days off, and traders have less desire to trade, with no macroeconomic or fundamental background available. Thus, strong, trending moves are unlikely before the end of the year. This week, the event calendar for the Eurozone and the US is empty.

From a technical perspective, an upward trend persists on the hourly timeframe, as indicated by the trend line. We consider the primary task for the euro this week is to remain above this trend line to continue the upward movement at the beginning of next year without reversing the bullish trend. The European currency is also supported by Ichimoku indicator lines. A rebound from the 1.1750-1.1760 area today could provoke a slight rise in the pair.

On the 5-minute timeframe, two trading signals were formed on Monday, which is not unusual. However, these signals are not surprising, given the market's total flatness and the price being near an important area and the Kijun-sen line. The price rebounded twice from these areas and lines on the first trading day of the week. In both cases, the price moved up by about 20-25 pips.

COT Report

The latest COT report is dated December 16. The illustration above shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has been "bullish" for a long time. The bears struggled to gain the upper hand at the end of 2024 but quickly lost it again. Since Trump took office for the second time, only the dollar has been falling. We can't say with 100% certainty that the decline of the US currency will continue, but current global developments suggest this is a possibility. The red and blue lines are diverging, indicating a strong advantage for the bulls.

We still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the European currency, but there are still plenty of reasons for the American dollar to fall. The global downward trend persists, but what significance does it have given the price movements over the last 17 years? The European currency has been growing for the last three years, and that is a trend.

The arrangement of the red and blue lines of the indicator continues to indicate the maintenance and strengthening of the bullish trend. During the last reporting week, the number of longs for the "Non-commercial" group increased by 8,900, while the number of shorts rose by 2,700. Accordingly, the net position increased by 6,200 contracts over the week.

EUR/USD 1H Analysis

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair maintains its upward trend. The upper line of the lateral channel at 1.1400-1.1830 has been tested twice, so we might soon witness a technical pullback, as the flat trend continues on the daily timeframe. However, the 1.1750-1.1760 area is preventing the pair from dropping lower, and the ascending trend line maintains the local trend, interrupted by the holidays.

For December 30, we highlight the following levels for trading: 1.1234, 1.1274, 1.1362, 1.1426, 1.1542, 1.1604-1.1615, 1.1657-1.1666, 1.1750-1.1760, 1.1846-1.1857, 1.1922, 1.1971-1.1988, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1710) and the Kijun-sen line (1.1755). Ichimoku indicator lines may move throughout the day, which should be taken into account when determining trading signals. Don't forget to set stop loss orders to breakeven if the price moves in the correct direction by 15 pips. This will protect against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Tuesday, there are no significant events or reports planned in the Eurozone or the US. Movements may be weak throughout the day and non-trending.

Trading Recommendations:

On Tuesday, traders may trade from the 1.1750-1.1760 area. A price rebound from this area would make long positions relevant, targeting the 1.1800-1.1830 area. A consolidation below this area would lead to a drop with a target set at the Senkou Span B line.

Explanations for Illustrations:

• Support and resistance price levels – thick red lines, around which the movement may end. These are not sources of trade signals.
• Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines – Ichimoku indicator lines transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour timeframe. These are strong lines.
• Extreme levels – thin red lines, from which the price has previously bounced. These are considered sources of trading signals.
• Yellow lines – trend lines, trend channels, and any other technical patterns.
• Indicator 1 on the COT charts – net position size of each category of traders.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

EUR/JPY. Price Analysis. Forecast. EUR/JPY Exchange Rate Declines Amidst BOJ's Hawkish Rhetoric

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The EUR/JPY rate is decreasing. This decline reflects a resumption of yen strengthening, supported by recent signals from the Bank of Japan, while the euro attempts to maintain its position amid more stable monetary policy prospects in the Eurozone.

The Japanese yen has strengthened following the BOJ's publication of the results from its December monetary policy meeting. During discussions, board members noted the need to further tighten conditions, even after the recent rate hike. Recall that the central bank raised the key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%—a level not seen in many decades. Some participants expressed confidence that the current interest rate level still does not reflect inflation dynamics, as it is too low. Others emphasized that the yen's weakness and the rise in long-term bond yields are partly due to excessively loose monetary policy, which has heightened expectations of a new rate hike in 2026, thereby providing additional support for the Japanese currency.

In Europe, the situation appears less clear-cut. The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained rates at its last meeting this month and indicated that it has no intention of revising them in the near future. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde noted that high uncertainty makes it difficult to provide precise forecasts, so the bank's policy will be shaped by incoming data and decisions made after each meeting. According to money-market estimates, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB in February does not exceed 10%. This perception of the end of the easing cycle limits the pressure on the euro.

Overall, the BOJ's decisively hawkish stance adds further pressure on the EUR/JPY pair, while the ECB's cautious stance on rate changes serves as a short-term stabilizing factor. According to the table, the yen posted the largest gain on Monday against the New Zealand dollar.

From a technical perspective, the pair found good support at the 9-day EMA near the 183.40-183.45 zone. The nearest resistance level is at 184.45, while the primary resistance lies at the month's high. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive, confirming the optimistic forecast.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

GBP/USD. Price Analysis. Forecast. GBP/USD Exchange Rate Stabilizes

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On Monday, the GBP/USD pair was trading at the round 1.3500 level. After notable fluctuations, the quotes have stabilized as market participants exercise caution ahead of year-end and the Christmas and New Year period, which traditionally sees reduced liquidity.

The British pound remains under pressure. Investors anticipate that the Bank of England will transition to a gradual cycle of monetary policy easing in 2026, considering that inflation in the country is still significantly above the target rate of 2%.

Despite inflation risks easing in recent months, annual inflation slowed to 3.2% in November after peaking at 3.8% between July and September, limiting the scope for the Bank of England to take action. At its last meeting, the bank reduced the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with the decision made by a minimal majority (five votes to four), confirming ongoing concerns about inflation risks.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently noted that the course toward rate reduction remains, but emphasized that further steps will be limited as rates approach the neutral level and will depend on incoming economic data. Regarding economic growth, in the third quarter, UK GDP increased by 0.1%, in line with forecasts, while in the fourth quarter, the central bank expects virtually zero growth.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened slightly as market participants continued to anticipate a faster pace of Federal Reserve policy easing in 2026. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut of at least 50 basis points is assessed at over 70%. These expectations diverge from the Fed's own forecasts, as its latest "dot plot" suggests that by the end of 2026, the federal funds rate will be around 3.4%, implying a limited number of cuts from the current range of 3.50%–3.75%.

Following US President Donald Trump's statements that the new Fed chair should be an advocate of soft monetary policy, the market has heightened expectations for a more flexible approach from the central bank. Investor attention is now focused on the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Tuesday, which may clarify the Fed's position on future rate changes.

From a technical perspective, the pair is attempting to strengthen above the round level of 1.3500. Resistance is expected at the 1.3535 level. Support is at the 9-day EMA, below which lies the 1.3440 level. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive but close to the overbought zone, confirming consolidation. The table below reflects the dynamics of the British pound against major world currencies for today. The most significant strengthening is observed in the pair with the New Zealand dollar.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trade Deal Between the USA and the EU – Fiction? Part 2

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At the same time, economists note that natural gas prices may continue to decline as the USA, Qatar, and Canada plan to increase production. Additionally, a potential resolution of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia could negatively impact prices, as Moscow might be released from a significant portion of the sanctions, many of which pertain to energy exports.

I'm reminding you that currently, India is forced to abandon Russian oil and gas due to the demands of Donald Trump. The American president believes that countries purchasing energy resources from Russia are indirectly funding its war in Ukraine. Since Trump wants to achieve a ceasefire, he is exerting pressure in every possible way, both on Moscow and on Kyiv. The only thing that varies is the levers of influence. If oil and gas prices are falling now due to strict sanctions against Russia, what will happen when the sanctions are lifted? Prices may drop even further, and the European Union will be deprived of the theoretical possibility of fulfilling the terms of the agreement.

This is where it gets interesting. Trump could already claim that Brussels is not fulfilling the deal and initiate a new trade war against the EU. If you remember, he has repeatedly stated that he would seize any excuse to start a conflict. In the situation with the European Union, he doesn't need to look for excuses. Trump sees trade wars as a way to fill the American treasury. If there is an opportunity to refill it with additional dollars, why miss such a chance? Based on this, I believe that in 2026, Trump will continue escalating the trade conflict against half of the world's countries.

Economists also point out that neither the US nor the European Union has sufficient reserves for storing extracted oil and gas. The European Union does not have the physical capability to store the volumes of gas it has committed to purchase. This further indicates the unseriousness of the trade deal. Political scientists, in turn, explain the deal as a part of political games. In their view, the European Union is trying to buy time. Donald Trump will remain the US president for another 3 years, and in the next election, a Democratic Party representative might win. It is no secret that negotiating with Democrats is much easier, so it is possible that Brussels' goal is to wait out Trump's second term and maintain good relations with the world's largest economy.

Wave Picture of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend. The policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets of the current section of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. The current ascending wave pattern is beginning to develop, and I would like to think that we are now observing the construction of an impulse wave set, which is part of the global wave 5. In this case, one should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% by Fibonacci.

Wave Picture of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The descending corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 is complete, as is the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend to resume construction, with initial targets around 38 and 40.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% of Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is still underway, and at this time, there is a fourth attempt to break the 1.3450 level, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Fundamental Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and straightforward. Complex structures are difficult to trade, as they often bring changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

AUD/USD. Downward Correction and Favorable Longs

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The AUD/USD pair updated its yearly price high at 0.6731 on Monday. However, AUD/USD buyers could not maintain this height – at the start of the US session on Monday, sellers seized the initiative. The pair has drifted along the border of the 66 and 67 figures.

Looking ahead, it should be emphasized that the price fluctuations are due to a "thin market." The economic calendar is almost empty on Monday, so these price "jitters" are due to a lack of liquidity.

However, the current situation can be utilized, so to speak, in a practical sense. Within the established upward trend, such significant price pullbacks are highly valuable, as they allow long positions to be opened on more favorable terms.

Although December is not over yet, it can already be said that the AUD/USD pair has been advancing at the fastest pace this year. A nearly 200-pip rise is an impressive result for such a "sluggish" pair as AUD/USD. Here, it is essential to note that the pair's upward momentum has been driven not only by the weakening of the US dollar but also by the strengthening of the Australian dollar. The Reserve Bank of Australia has been a key ally for the Aussie, significantly tightening its rhetoric following the December meeting. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is preparing for further monetary policy easing – the only question is the pace of the rate reductions. The divergence between the RBA and the Fed is the driving force behind AUD/USD growth.

In this context, the Fed's "minutes" will be released on Tuesday, December 30. The minutes from the December meeting could reinforce market dovish sentiment on the Fed's further actions.

I remind you that at the final press conference, Jerome Powell presented softer language than expected. First, he expressed concern about the labor market, citing "significant downside risks." Second, he did not dramatize the situation regarding inflation dynamics. According to him, inflation has slowed, although it remains "somewhat elevated" relative to the central bank's long-term 2% target. At the same time, short-term inflation expectations have decreased compared to the peak values at the beginning of the year.

Following the December Fed meeting, key labor market and inflation data were published in the US. The NFP report reflected a rise in unemployment to 4.6%, a four-year high (the figure has been rising for four consecutive months), as well as weak growth in non-farm payrolls—only 64,000. Meanwhile, the CPI report showed a slowdown in inflation in November. The overall consumer price index in the US dropped to 2.7% YoY (from the previous value of 3.0%), while the core index fell to 2.6% (after a 3% increase in October).

The market will assess the key points from the minutes through the lens of these reports. That is, dovish remarks will have a stronger influence on the greenback than hawkish ones.

A soft tone in the minutes will support AUD/USD buyers: the divergence between the RBA and the Fed will take on new significance.

Indirect support for the Australian dollar may also come from China data, which will be released on Wednesday, December 31. First, we will determine the PMI index for the manufacturing sector. According to forecasts, the figure will remain in the contraction zone in December but rise from 49.2 to 49.4. If the index reaches at least the forecast level (let alone entering the expansion zone), it could indicate the formation of an upward dynamic, as the indicator increased from 49.0 to 49.2 in November.

Secondly, on Wednesday, we will learn the December value of the non-manufacturing PMI index for China. This figure is also expected to remain below the 50-point level (49.8). If both indicators unexpectedly fall into the expansion zone (i.e., exceed the 50.0 mark), risk appetite will increase, allowing AUD/USD buyers to strengthen their positions.

However, as mentioned above, the primary driver for the pair's growth remains the divergence between the Fed and the RBA. Thus, downward corrections are still worth considering for opening long positions.

Technical analysis confirms this. On the D1 timeframe, the AUD/USD pair is situated between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator and above all lines of the Ichimoku indicator, which has formed a bullish "Parade of Lines" signal. A similar technical pattern has emerged on the weekly chart. All of this indicates a priority for long positions. The first and currently the only target for the upward movement is the 0.6730 mark, which corresponds to the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the D1 timeframe.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

Trade Deal Between the USA and the EU – Fiction?

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In the summer, Brussels and Washington concluded a trade agreement that ended the trade war. I remind you that under the terms of this agreement, the European Union is obliged to purchase energy resources from the US for a certain amount of money (measured in hundreds of billions of dollars) and invest in the American economy a certain sum of money (also measured in hundreds of billions of dollars). In exchange, Donald Trump removed a significant portion of trade barriers (tariffs) on European goods. However, some were still kept.

The European Union began to conscientiously fulfill the terms of the agreement and to increase oil and gas imports from the US. However, there was a problem – in recent months, the prices of oil and gas have decreased on average by 7%, so in monetary terms, the EU started spending less on the purchase of energy resources than before the agreement was concluded. This raises the question: what should be done about it?

If the agreement between the EU and the US clearly outlines obligations for purchasing energy resources at a certain annual amount, then Brussels will have to buy significantly more oil and gas than it needs. But what to do with all the excess gas or oil? While gas storage facilities exist and can theoretically be filled to 100%, oil storage facilities are usually absent or do not allow for the storage of large amounts of oil.

Economists explain this situation by stating that the deal is, in fact, of an oral nature, and the agreement does not specify clear purchase volumes, as well as scenarios for force majeure situations, particularly in cases where prices fall sharply. Economists believe that raw material purchases have always been made on the basis of needs and costs, not on political promises. The European Union simply cannot purchase more oil and gas than it can consume. Therefore, the trade agreement with Trump appears to be a fiction or requires revision. Alternatively, it might contain provisions that explain what to do in such situations, but these are not available to the general public.

At present, the European Union has purchased energy resources from the USA for a total of $74 billion, which is about a third less than the obligations. If we speak only about gas, even if the EU replaced all Russian gas with American gas, it would amount to $29 billion per year. This is approximately a quarter of the necessary amount that Brussels "should" spend under the trade deal.

Wave Picture of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend. The policies of Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the American currency. The targets of the current section of the trend may extend to the 25th figure. The current ascending wave pattern is beginning to develop, and I would like to think that we are now observing the construction of an impulse wave set, which is part of the global wave 5. In this case, one should expect growth with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% by Fibonacci.

Wave Picture of GBP/USD:

The wave picture of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The descending corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C in 4 is complete, as is the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend to resume construction, with initial targets around 38 and 40.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% of Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is still underway, and at this time, there is a fourth attempt to break the 1.3450 level, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.

Fundamental Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and straightforward. Complex structures are difficult to trade, as they often bring changes.
2. If there is no confidence in what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Don't forget about protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.

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DXY: Price Analysis. Forecast. Can the Dollar Overcome Its Weakness?

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On Monday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of six currencies, was strengthening. Trading is low due to the approaching New Year holidays.

The main event of this week will be the publication of the minutes from the December Federal Reserve meeting, during which the interest rate was lowered by 25 basis points, establishing a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Over the course of 2025, the Fed reduced rates by a total of 75 basis points. Market participants are pricing in at least two more rate cuts in 2026, following a cooling labor market and declining inflation expectations, which could weaken the dollar against other currencies.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 18.3% probability of a rate cut at the January meeting.

Last week, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he would like the next Fed Chair to reduce rates if the market performs well. Such comments could heighten concerns about the Fed's independence and ultimately weaken the dollar index.

However, geopolitical tensions and uncertainties continue to support the dollar as a safe-haven asset. On Sunday, Trump reported significant progress in negotiations with Vladimir Zelensky toward a potential peace agreement; however, precise timelines for achieving it remain undefined and may take several weeks.

To improve trading opportunities, U.S. housing sales data for November is scheduled for publication on Monday, which may create volatility for the dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are negative, indicating a bearish control of the situation. The nearest resistance is at 98.10, above which the 9-day EMA serves as an obstacle. The 14-day EMA is at 98.35, and only after the 100-day SMA is surpassed will bulls be able to expect strength.

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EUR/USD. Pre-Holiday Flat in Anticipation of FOMC Minutes

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The euro-dollar pair has been trading within the 1.1710–1.1800 range for the third consecutive week, that is, within the 17-figure range. Although overall bullish sentiment remains in the pair, as evidenced by the monthly price chart, November saw the pair hit a three-month low at 1.1470 before turning around and climbing more than 300 pips.

Of course, the upward trend has been accompanied by corrective pullbacks, but traders have consistently used those corrections as opportunities to open long positions. As a result, the pair approached the 18-figure boundary and even tested this price barrier.

The holiday period in the currency market is considered a "dead season." Traders have to operate in low liquidity conditions amid an almost empty economic calendar. On Monday, geopolitical issues are in focus, but under prevailing uncertainty, they are unable to set the tone for trading. Negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine did not result in a clear breakthrough, although both sides remain optimistic and assure the public that the "Gordian knot" will be tied up in the foreseeable future. In the currency market, such vague statements are typically not considered significant informational drivers. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within the aforementioned price range, that is, "inside" the 17-figure.

To resume the upward movement, which implies overcoming the resistance at 1.1810 (the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the W1 timeframe), traders will need a strong fundamental impulse signaling enhanced dovish sentiment.

It is essential to note that traders are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will maintain all parameters of monetary policy at its January meeting. The probability of this scenario is 82%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, the likelihood of a rate cut at the March meeting currently stands at around 53%. In other words, market participants assess the odds of a rate cut in March as approximately 50/50.

In my view, buyers will solidify above the 1.1810 resistance level only when the balance tilts definitively toward the "dovish" scenario. Therefore, every subsequent release and each macroeconomic report will be viewed through the lens of prospective monetary policy easing. For example, the minutes from the December FOMC meeting will be released on Tuesday, December 30.

The results from the December meeting reminded traders of the persistent disagreements among members of the U.S. central bank. Some focused on inflation risks, advocating keeping interest rates at the current level, while others expressed concerns about the state of the American labor market, leaning toward further easing of monetary policy.

Although the market interpreted the meeting's outcomes negatively for the U.S. dollar, the Fed sent quite contradictory signals. Inflation is no longer an acute issue, but it is not completely defeated either. The labor market remains resilient, though signs of cooling are increasing. In the face of such contradictions, the central bank clearly indicated that future decisions would depend not on intentions but on actual data (NFP, CPI, PCE, PPI, consumer confidence).

In this context, the "FOMC minutes" may either strengthen or weaken the market's dovish sentiment. The dollar will react accordingly, especially against the backdrop of an almost empty economic calendar.

If the minutes emphasize inflation risks, slow price declines, and a willingness to keep rates at their current level, the market will interpret the document as "hawkish." Traders will see this as a signal that the rate will be lowered slowly and cautiously next year.

However, if the minutes highlight concerns about slowing employment growth and/or economic slowdowns, the dollar will come under additional pressure. A dovish tone in the protocol would suggest that the central bank may cut rates again in the first quarter of next year, likely at the March meeting.

Thus, in the face of informational pre-holiday "hunger," the minutes from the December FOMC meeting could provoke volatility in the EUR/USD pair. However, in my opinion, the potential "ups and downs" will occur within the price range of 1.1710–1.1800, that is, within the 17-figure. Ahead of the New Year's hibernation, traders are unlikely to expect a sustained price movement, and they will likely take profits as the price approaches the upper or lower limits of the range, thereby dampening the upward/downward momentum. Therefore, it makes sense to consider short/long positions as the price approaches the upper/lower boundaries of the aforementioned price corridor.

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XAU/USD: Dollar vs. Gold. Near-Term Prospects

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*) see also: InstaForex Trading Indicators for XAU/USD

In a context of reduced trading volumes and amid the dollar's recovery, the price of gold and the XAU/USD pair are declining in the first half of Monday's trading.

The XAU/USD pair was trading near $4,458, moving towards the nearest significant support level of $4,420 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart), which separates the short-term bullish market from the bearish one.

Current Trends in the Dollar Market

The dollar is gradually recovering after a period of relative weakness driven by changes in the Federal Reserve's policy. Employment and inflation figures continue to positively influence the currency, providing it with some stability. After a prolonged decline, the dollar index (USDX) has found technical support near one of the key strategic levels, separating the global bullish USDX market from the bearish one—97.60 (EMA144 on the monthly chart).

However, the dollar's growth should still be viewed as corrective within the ongoing bearish trend. According to the CME FedWatch data, the market is pricing in a high probability of maintaining the rate at the January FOMC meeting (82%) and a low probability (18%) of a 25-basis-point cut. This indicates that expectations for further rapid tightening have softened, and the market is already accounting for gradual rate reductions in the future.

The prospects for the dollar's further growth depend on several important factors:

• The dynamics of inflation and the U.S. labor market
• The outcomes of FOMC meetings could clarify the central bank's future steps.
• The global economic situation, especially in Europe and Asia, is influencing international trade and capital flows.

Short-Term Outlook

• Base Scenario (Most Likely): Moderate recovery of the dollar amid technical adjustments, with the Fed maintaining rates without strong signals for further rapid cuts. The strengthening of the dollar will be limited by market expectations of rate reductions later.
• Rapid Strengthening of the Dollar: If data on inflation and the labor market worsen expectations for easing monetary policy (i.e., if inflation accelerates), the market might revise the probability of easing, and the dollar could gain strong support.
• Weakening of the Dollar: If the FOMC minutes and subsequent comments from regulators signal readiness for earlier and deeper rate cuts, or if the U.S. economy sharply slows, the dollar could decline.

Gold Prices and Global Factors

The price of gold is currently declining in a low-liquidity environment, influenced by the strengthening dollar and rising expectations of global political changes.

Key reasons for the current position of gold:

• Technical Correction: Gold has pulled back from a record high of $4,550.00 on low volumes—this is a typical technical correction after reaching overbought levels.
• Strengthening Dollar: Traditionally, gold loses its appeal when the U.S. dollar strengthens, as the need for alternative inflation hedges decreases.
• Global Political Events: Reports of a potential resolution to the conflict in Ukraine have led to decreased demand for safe-haven assets like gold (over the weekend, following a meeting with Zelensky, Donald Trump expressed confidence in the "nearness of the end of the war in Ukraine").
• Inflation: Even amid high inflation, gold struggles to compete with more attractive investments that offer returns in dollar terms.

Nonetheless, the price of gold remains near historic highs, reflecting deep structural problems in the global economy and ongoing uncertainty in several regions of the world.

Gold Scenarios for the Coming Weeks

• Base Scenario: A brief technical correction towards support levels of $4,444.00 (EMA144 on the 1-hour chart), $4,420.00 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart) – $4,400.00. Further growth could follow if geopolitical tensions rise again or if real rates continue to decline.
• Bearish Scenario: Confirmation of a global improvement in risk prospects (peace resolution, dollar growth) and a sustained increase in real rates could continue to exert pressure, leading to further corrections towards $4,254.00 and $4,200.00 – $4,185.00.
• Bullish Scenario: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, unexpectedly weak U.S. economic data, or accelerating inflation could push gold to new highs.

What to Monitor as a Trader or Investor

• FOMC December Meeting Minutes (publication on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT) and subsequent comments from Fed members— to understand the internal balance and pace of easing.
• Employment Data (on Friday, January 9) and inflation data (PCE, CPI) in the U.S.—key for rate expectations.
• Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and Treasury Yields.
• News related to Ukraine and geopolitics, as well as flows into gold ETFs and positioning on COMEX.
• Technical Levels: The resistance zone of $4,500.00 – $4,550.00 and the support zone of $4,420.00 – $4,400.00 are important in this review.

Conclusion

The dollar is showing a technical recovery after a period of weakness, but its potential is limited by expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Gold is correcting from record highs under pressure from the strengthening dollar and hopes for de-escalation in Ukraine, but it remains sensitive to real rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.

The prospects for the dollar and gold are closely tied to developments in the global economy and to central bank policies. Despite the current positive signals for the dollar, long-term economic and political factors may alter the balance of power in the global financial market. Investors and traders should closely monitor key indicators and events to make informed decisions regarding their investments in dollars and gold.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com.

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

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The Canadian dollar has received support from rising oil prices, which is quite expected given Canada's status as one of the key suppliers of raw materials to the United States. U.S. crude oil (WTI – West Texas Intermediate) prices are climbing after a recent sharp decline, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions. However, this factor is likely to provide only temporary support for the Canadian dollar, as the commodity-driven momentum is gradually weakening.

From a monetary policy perspective, the U.S. dollar continues to face pressure but is gradually stabilizing. Markets continue to price in a high risk of further easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in 2026 following the December rate cut of 25 basis points, which set a new target range of 3.50%–3.75%. Over the course of 2025, the Fed cut rates by a total of 75 basis points amid a slowdown in the labor market and inflation that remains above the target level.

The main focus now shifts to the publication of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, scheduled for Tuesday. The document may shed light on the nature of internal discussions within the Federal Reserve and provide clues about the future direction of policy in 2026. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of keeping rates unchanged in January remains high, while expectations for a rapid new rate cut have weakened.

In Canada, the monetary situation appears more stable. The Bank of Canada is maintaining a wait-and-see approach, as inflation is only slightly above the 2% target. The regulator's latest minutes confirm that the current level of interest rates is considered appropriate, while still allowing for flexibility should economic conditions change. The divergence in approaches between the Fed and the Bank of Canada is keeping USD/CAD in a state of moderate consolidation.

From a technical standpoint, oscillators on the daily chart are in oversold territory, confirming the consolidation phase. The first obstacle to further growth is the round level of 1.3700. The next resistance lies at 1.3750, near the 9-day EMA. Support is located at 1.4650.

According to current data, the Canadian dollar is showing its strongest performance against the New Zealand dollar, while its dynamics against other major currencies remain mixed.

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GBP/USD. Smart Money. A Gift for Traders Under the Christmas Tree

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The GBP/USD pair bounced off bullish imbalance 11 and resumed its upward movement, just as I had anticipated. The reaction to bullish imbalance 11 turned out to be double. At the moment, buy trades are already showing a profit of around 400 pips by the most conservative estimates, and traders can decide for themselves what to do with them next. In my view, the bullish trend has not ended, and the offensive that began in the first ten days of November is not over. There is not a single workable bearish pattern on GBP that would even suggest a potential decline in prices.

Last week, another bullish imbalance was formed, and the price is now moving toward this pattern. Thus, already today or tomorrow the price may react to it, and traders may receive a new bullish signal. Of course, the signal still has to form, but everything is pointing in that direction. Above, the bulls face virtually no significant resistance zones. Naturally, this does not mean that a decline in the pound is impossible. However, to identify a potential drop, signals are also needed. At the moment, there are no bearish patterns, no reactions to bearish patterns, and no liquidity grabs from bullish swings.

The current chart picture is as follows. The bullish trend in the pound can be considered complete, but the bullish trend in the euro is not. Thus, the euro may pull the pound upward with it, although the pound itself has been rising quite well in recent weeks. Bulls have bounced from bullish imbalance 1, from bullish imbalance 10, and twice from bullish imbalance 11. A large number of buy signals have been formed. A new support zone has formed below—imbalance 12. Therefore, I still expect growth toward the yearly highs, around the 1.3765 level.

There was no news background on Monday. However, new chart-based buy signals may still appear before the end of the year, and the rally itself may continue. For many Europeans and Americans, New Year's Day as a holiday has a lower priority than Christmas.

In the United States, the overall informational background remains such that, in the long term, nothing but a decline in the dollar can be expected. The situation in the U.S. remains quite difficult. The government shutdown lasted a month and a half, and Democrats and Republicans agreed on funding only through the end of January. There has been no U.S. labor market data for a month and a half, and the latest figures can hardly be called positive for the dollar. The last three FOMC meetings ended with dovish decisions, and the latest labor market data allow for a fourth consecutive easing of monetary policy in January. In my view, the bulls have everything they need to continue the new offensive and return to the yearly highs.

A bearish trend requires a strong and stable positive informational background for the U.S. dollar, which is hard to expect under Donald Trump. Moreover, the U.S. president himself does not need an expensive dollar, since the trade balance would remain in deficit in that case. Therefore, I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound, despite the fairly strong decline in September and October. Too many risk factors remain hanging like dead weight over the dollar. What are the bears supposed to use to push the pound further down if a bearish trend is supposedly forming now? I cannot answer that question, which is why I do not believe the process of dollar strengthening will continue. If new bearish patterns appear, a potential decline in the pound sterling can be reconsidered.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

On December 30, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy events. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday will be absent.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

For the pound, the picture is beginning to look more pleasing to the eye. Three bullish patterns have been worked out, signals have been formed, and traders can continue to hold buy positions. I see no information grounds for a strong decline in the pound in the near future.

The resumption of the bullish trend could have been expected as early as from imbalance zone 1. At this point, the pound has reacted to imbalance 1, imbalance 10, and imbalance 11. As a potential upward target, I am considering the 1.3725 level, though the pound may rise much higher—albeit next year. If bearish patterns form, the trading strategy may need to be revised, but this week it is more likely that another bullish signal will be received from imbalance 12.

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